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FTA - Three Dangerous Ideas That Are Putting Our Society At Risk with Dr. Jonathan Haidt

December 17, 2020 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making, Emotional Intelligence

In this episode we discuss several seemingly good ideas that are actually quite dangerous. We start with a look at how the immune system can teach us about the vital importance of being “anti-fragile.” We look at lessons from ancient cultural traditions all the way up to modern psychology research to peel back the layers of our current social dialogue and look at many notions that have permeated our current thinking. What are the best ways to promote growth and development? How can we help heal people who have suffered from trauma? How can we create a framework that allows for our society to seek the truth and solve our toughest challenges? We take a hard look at the answers to these questions and much more with our guest Dr. Jonathan Haidt. 

Dr. Jonathan Haidt is a social psychologist and professor of ethical leadership at New York University’s Stern School of Business. He is the author of multiple books including most recently The Coddling of The American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas are Setting Up a Generation for Failure. He is also the author of over 90 academic articles and his work has been featured across the globe.

  • In teaching psychology 101 Jonathan found that there was much wisdom in the ancient traditions around how we could be happier 

  • There are a lot of really bad ideas being spread these days - despite the fact that they arise from good intentions 

  • What can the immune system teach us about vital importance of anti-fragility?

  • The reason peanut allergies are rising is because America started protecting kids from peanuts in the early 90s

  • Kids need to get sick and be exposed to dirt and germs so that they can be healthier - that’s the cornerstone of the immune system

  • The importance of being anti-fragile

  • If you try to protect children you end up making them weaker, not stronger

  • The importance of play - free play without adult supervision - and letting children take risks

  • We can’t reach natural without a lot of play (in the form of risk taking)

  • Comfort zones are most often expanded through discomfort - we must be uncomfortable to grow

  • Our extreme culture of overprotection has really harmed children

  • Every ancient culture that leaves us with deep writing shares the idea that we don’t experience reality as it really is - we experience reality as we interpret it - our life is the creation of our minds

  • “There’s nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so"

  • You don’t grow in a threatening world - you hunker down and get defensive

  • Children need to be in the zone of exploration and excitement

  • You shouldn’t trust you first reaction - you need to question your first reaction

  • What happens when students themselves ask for protection from ideas and think that ideas will traumatize them?

  • A desire to protect those who are emotionally fragile is wrong - exposure is how you solve fear and emotional fragility

  • The way you overcome a phobia is not by hiding and walling yourself off from what you’re afraid of 

  • If the goal is actually to help people - the entire culture of safetyism - that people are fragile and need to be protected - is directly opposed to the scientific research around what actually helps people

  • Are the phenomena of Safe space, trigger warnings, micro aggressions and the morality of “safetyism” that arose in the last few years healthy for individuals and society?

  • If you goal is healing trauma and helping people improve - embracing discomfort is the best solution

  • If your goal is to seek truth - then you must expose yourself to ideas you disagree with and have others challenge your ideas as well 

  • If you goal is ideological victory then you try to silence your opponents ideas 

  • If people don’t share ideas because they’re afraid of being attacked - then the entire goal of truth seeking cannot be achieved. Today people are afraid of speaking up and afraid of challenging many ideas

  • Humans are tribal creatures - we evolved with a tribal mentality in order to survive - and yet this instinct can be very destructive when we apply it to ideological divides 

  • We’re playing the truth seeking game, we’re trying to make a diverse community, and we must give everyone the benefit of the doubt

  • Just as we don’t tolerate racism or sexism, we shouldn’t tolerate anyone silencing ideas  

  • Silencing discussion and thought policing can actually foster support for damaging and negative ideas

  • This isn’t just a debate about how to interpret reality and communication - the culture of “safetyism” is a major contributor to the rise of suicide and anxiety

  • Since 2011 rates of suicide have risen 25% for men and 70% for women 

  • This is a pragmatic argument - its not moral or political - and yet the dialogue today prevents the discussion of truth from even happening

  • What does the psychology tell us about child development and personal improvement?

  • What kind of norms are conducive to growth and self improvement?

  • The world is incredibly safe now - physically its very very safe

  • We live in a bubble where algorithms confirm what we already want to believe 

  • Anything you say has infinite downside potential - you could be shamed and criticized - the internet and social media have enabled many intellectual “mob” dynamics where ideas that go against the norm are often silenced or never brought up

  • Our evolutionarily ingrained mode of thinking is more tribal/religious and this is directly opposed to the more scientific method of thinking and inquiry 

  • What does it mean to be spiritual, but not religious? We have all the same religious psychology that we’ve always had, but without organized religion. And often these religious tendencies can manifest in social movements. 

  • At times people fighting for a cause can drift into a tribal mindset 

  • How can we “wise-up” ourselves and our children to think more clearly and embrace the lessons of psychology to be healthier, happier, and think more clearly?

  • The “Chicago Principles” for freedom of thinking - an open platform to speak, discuss, and debate ideas - so that you can make your case with evidence and good arguments. 

  • If you don’t have diversity of ideas when you’re searching for truth you often come to erroneous conclusions. When we lose viewpoint diversity the science itself is at risk. If you don’t have diversity you’re likely to have bad thinking. 

  • We have to think about the social process of how imperfect flawed individuals (like all humans) can work together to discover what’s true

  • Homework: Spread these ideas to others.

  • Homework: Think about the context and system you can to improve and think about how these principles can be appleid to keep healthy debate and productive disagreement 

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Show Notes, Links, & Research

  • [Book] The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom by Jonathan Haidt

  • [Book] The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure by Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt

  • [Amazon Author Page] Jonathan Haidt

  • [Book] Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • [Book] The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • [Book] The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion by Jonathan Haidt

  • [Book] iGen: Why Today's Super-Connected Kids Are Growing Up Less Rebellious, More Tolerant, Less Happy--and Completely Unprepared for Adulthood--and What That Means for the Rest of Us by Jean M. Twenge PhD

  • [Book] Free-Range Kids, How to Raise Safe, Self-Reliant Children (Without Going Nuts with Worry) by Lenore Skenazy

  • [Website] Let Grow

  • [Website] OpenMind

  • [Website] Heterodox Academy

  • [Download] ALL MINUS ONE: John Stuart Mill’s Ideas on Free Speech Illustrated

  • [Website] The Coddling

  • [SoS Episode] The Biggest Threat Humans Face in 2018

  • [Wiki Article] Chicago principles

Episode Transcript

ANNOUNCER: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet, bringing the world's top experts right to you. Introducing your hosts, Matt Bodnar and Austin Fabel. 


[00:00:19] MB: Hello everyone and welcome to another episode of The Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with over 5 million downloads and listeners just like you in over 100 countries. I'm your co-host, Austin Fable, and today we've got an incredible guest from the archives, Dr. Jonathan Haidt. We discussed several seemingly good ideas that are actually quite dangerous. We start with a look at how the immune system can teach us about the vital importance of being anti-fragile and then we look at lessons from ancient cultural traditions all the way up to the modern psychology research to peel back the layers of our current social dialogue and look at many of the notions that have permeated our current thinking. We thought this would be a great episode for right now given the political climate, the climate of the world, and just 2020 in general and a lot of the trends we've seen. 


But before we dig into this great episode from the archives, are you enjoying the show and content we put out for you each and every week? I know you are. So there's two incredibly easy, yet tremendously impactful and helpful things you can do for Matt and I. First, leave us a quick five-star review on your podcast listening platform of choice. Do you know what that does? It helps other people like you find the show. Helping spread the word about The Science of Success and the great guests that we work to work with and produce content for you every single week. Second, go to our homepage at www.successpodcast.com and sign up for our email list today. Our subscribers are going to be the first people to know about all the comings and goings of the show, but you'll also have access to exclusive content that you're not going to get anywhere else. Specifically, when you sign up, the first thing you'll get is our free course we spent a ton of time on appropriately named How to Make Time for What Matters Most in Your Life?


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So now, back to this episode. As I mentioned, we're pulling it from the archives. Our guest is Dr. Jonathan Haidt. He's a social psychologist and professor of ethical leadership at New York University's Stern School of Business. He's the author of multiple books including The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure. He's also the author of over 90 academic articles and his work has been featured all across the globe. Again, it was a great conversation. We thought it was a very appropriate time to bring Jonathan's episode back from the archives. And who knows? On the second listen, I'm sure you're going to learn something new you may have not seen on the first pass. If this is your first time, it's going to be a very relevant conversation for where you find yourself today as we go into the holidays given the pandemic and everything else. So without further ado, I will be quiet and here is our interview with Dr. Jonathan Haidt. 

[00:03:29] MB: Today, we have another fascinating guest on the show; Dr. Jonathan Haidt. Jonathan is a social psychologist and professor of ethical leadership at New York University Stern School of business. He's the author of multiple books including most recently The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure. He's also the author of over 90 academic articles and his work has been featured across the globe. 

Jonathan, welcome to The Science of Success. 

[00:03:54] JH: Hi, Matt. Thanks so much for having me on. 

[00:03:55] MB: We’re very excited to have you on the show, and there's so much work that you've done that I think is super relevant for our audience, but I'd love to start with kind of the sort of opening parable of Coddling the American Mind and kind of the story of the guru and how that sort of explores some of the kind of, as you call them, untruths that are causing people to think sort of poorly about the world today. 

[00:04:17] JH: Sure. So my first book is called The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom, and it grew out of a course I taught at the University of Virginia. I was a professor there for 16 years, and in teaching psych 101 I decided to – I found that I was often quoting the ancient, so I wrote a book basically taking ancient ideas and evaluating them as a psychologist. Are they true?

So what we do in The Coddling of the American Mind is we noticed that there're a lot of really bad ideas being taught to kids these days for good intentions. It’s always done for some purpose to help them in some way, but they can be debilitating. 

So, for example, the first one is what doesn't kill you makes you weaker, and that's obviously the opposite of the classic dictum; what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. So the way we decided to open the book, it was Greg's idea that we would go on a – Greg Kukianoff is my co-author. What if we tell a pretend story that we’re going off on a wisdom quest ourselves? So we start of the story kind of straight-faced saying that we went on a trip to Mount Olympus in Greece and we talked to an oracle there in pursuit of wisdom, and he gives us these words of wisdom, like what doesn't kill you makes you weaker. So that just flies in the face of not just ancient wisdom, but of modern psychology about anti-fragility, which I hope we’ll talk in length about. But that was sort of the literary device that we used to open the book to get across the idea that kids can be harmed by bad ideas even if they are well-intentioned. 

[00:05:46] MB: So let's take into anti-fragility, because I think that's one of the kind of cornerstones of what you talk about in Coddling the American Mind, and it's funny to me because we interview people from such a wide array of fields; the military, the FBI, astronauts, poker players, neuroscientist, research psychologist, and again and again and again you kind of come across this theme that you have to face discomfort. You have to kind of – To build that mental toughness, you have to engage with things that you disagree with and things you don't like, and that's ultimately sort of one of the fundamental things in performance psychology, is that you shouldn't sort of hide from things that you just like. You should sort of toughen yourself against them. 

 

[00:06:23] JH: That's right. So I could repeat that. I could just be the 17th person to say that on your show, but maybe what I can bring in, which your listeners might not have heard about, is the immune system and the way that the immune system works. So we open chapter one with the story of my son's first day of preschool when he was three years old, and the teachers just went on and on and on in the parents’ orientation meeting about peanuts. It was like this is the most important thing they care about. No peanuts. Nothing that ever touched a peanut, or looks like a peanut, or has the other word letter P in it. It was crazy. Because it turns peanut allergies are rising. 

Well, when I looked into this, I discovered that the reason peanut allergies are rising is because Americans started banning peanuts. They started protecting kids from peanuts in the 1990s, and that just flies in the face of the logic of the immune system. So the immune system is this credible evolutionary accomplishment. Evolution had no idea what germs and worms and parasites we were going to face. So it created this open-ended system that learns, it learns really quickly, it learns even while in utero. It learns from what foods your mother has eaten, as to what foods you’re safe and which ones it should react against. 

And if you protect kids from dirt and germs, if your mother is always washing your hands and not letting you play in the dirt, yeah, in the short run, you're going to get sick less often, but kids need to get sick. They need to be exposed to dirt and germs so that their immune system can wire up and then they’ll be healthy for the rest of their lives, or healthier. 

So what this shows is that the immune system is anti-fragile. It’s a wonderful word made up by Nassim Taleb, the guy who wrote The Black Swan, and it describe systems that are the opposite of fragile. So if a wineglass is fragile, you have to protect it, and if you drop it on the ground, nothing good will happen. It will break. But there are other systems that you have to drop on the ground in order for them to work. 

So while Taleb was originally writing about the banking system, the economic system that was so fragile before the 2008 crash, he called it. He predicted that the system is fragile, not anti-fragile. So it was vulnerable to catastrophe, and he was right. In the same way he says, “There are many other systems, like the immune system,” and even says, “like children.” He says “If we over protect children, we think we’re doing them a favor, but we’re not. We’re weakening them.” 

[00:08:44] MB: I love that example of the immune system, and I think it shows that kind of the importance of being anti-fragile is hardwired not only into our psychology, but our very biology. 

[00:08:53] JH: That's right. That's right, because when you have an open-ended system that has to learn, evolution built in that learning into the process. So we make a big deal in the book about the importance of play and free play without adult supervision, and it has to include letting kids take risks. 

I learned so much interesting work on play, but one thing that I'm sure your listeners will have noticed when they were kids or if they've seen other teenagers, when kids learn to skateboard, they don't just go for a ride, they ramp up the challenge. So once they skateboard, they then skateboard on staircases and they try to skateboard down railings. Kids do this. Once they master a skill, they want to test themselves, push themselves. That's the developmental program. We are designed for play. We can't reach maturity without a lot of play, which includes risk-taking. 

So this is wonderful. My wife gave me a fortune the other day. She had a fortune cookie and she handed me the fortune. It said, “Comfort zones are most often expanded through discomfort.” That's exactly the process. Kids seek out discomfort in some ways. We’re designed to push ourselves, test results, and that's how we grow strong. 

[00:10:05] MB: And yet our culture has continually in the last 5, 10, 15 years been sort of moving more and more towards being fragile and being more brittle. 

[00:10:14] JH: That's right. Our book; The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation For Failure. It's not about millennials, it's about the kids born after 1995. They're the ones who really bore the brunt of our extreme overprotectiveness, our extreme emphasis on academic achievement, our willingness to sacrifice recess and also some other things for more and more and more time on math and other skills that will be tested. We just started over protecting and under liberating our kids, especially in the 1990s. It goes back to the 1980s, but it really picked up its pace in the 1990s. We think we’re doing kids a favor, but we’re hurting them. We are preventing them from developing in the way that human beings were designed to develop. 

[00:10:58] MB: So you talked about a number of kind of untruths that you uncovered or sort of discussed in The Coddling of the American Mind. Let’s dig into the next one, which is sort of always trusting your feelings, or the belief that you should do that. 

[00:11:12] JH: Yeah. So chapter two of the happiness hypothesis, the second great untruth is always trust your feelings. So what we really need to be teaching kids is to question their first reactions. This is part of maturity. The book actually grows out of Greg Lukianoff’s experiences. My co-author and friend, he is prone to depression, and he had a suicidal depression in 2007, and as a result of that he learned to do cognitive behavioral therapy in which you learn the names of distortions. Like people who are depressed and anxious, they are constantly catastrophizing is one distortions, like, “Oh, this little thing happened, but my God, it's going to cause everything else to fail,” or black-and-white thinking. Everything is either all good or all bad. 

There are these patterns of disordered thought, and Greg had learned to stop doing them. That's what you do in CBT. You learn the names of these distortions. You catch yourself doing them, and gradually over a few months, you do them less and then you're happier. You're tougher. You are more resilient.

What Greg began to see in 2013, he runs the organization; The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, fighting for free speech for college students. He began to see in 2013, 2014, the first signs of students themselves asking for protection from ideas, because if somebody reads this novel, it could traumatize them. It could reactivate their PTSD, and there's not really any evidence of this. PTSD is not reactivated by some obvious reminder of like the word. It's often activated by something particular to you and your experience, something that happened on the day of your trauma. 

So the whole thing is not based on very good psychology, but it's based on – Let's give him the benefit of the doubt, a desire to protect people who are emotionally fragile. But it's misguided, because the way you get over fears is to be exposed to little reminders, not to the giant fear itself, but to little reminders, like the mention of something in a novel. 

So the overprotectiveness, the desire to protect people from the very experiences that will actually help them get over their fears is misguided, and we think maybe contributing to poor mental health on campus. 

[00:13:24] MB: I think that such an important point, and this whole idea that the way you overcome a phobia, right? I mean, if you look at the psychology research, it's not by constantly walling yourself off and building your life and building your own sort of personal world where you never encounter the thing that you're afraid of. It’s through exposure therapy. It's through building that muscle of being comfortable with discomfort. 

[00:13:46] JH: That's right. I think it's Pavlovian conditioning, for any listeners who have taken psychology. So if you have an elevator phobia, maybe you were once trapped in an elevator for six hours and you thought you were going to die. What should you do? Should your friends help you avoid television shows that have elevators in them? Should people walk you up the stairs and not even bring you near an elevator? Should they accommodate to your phobia? That might seem like a nice thing to do, but in fact the more your friends do that, the deeper your phobia gets. 

When you get reinforced, when you avoid elevators and your anxiety subsides, you learn to avoid elevators. But if you go near an elevator and nothing bad happens to you, that's actually how your sphere subsides. That’s when you get over the phobia. That’s how you counter condition. That’s how you extinguish it. 

So here, the always trust your feelings and the anti-fragility come together. We are anti-fragile creatures. We have very strong feelings, but those feelings are not always a reliable guide to the world as it is. Sometimes we need to change our feelings. This is called growth, education and development. 

[00:14:53] MB: And I think it's really important to kind of underscore again that talking about phobias, and elevators, etc., that this perspective is based in science. This idea that the way to overcome a phobia is by exposure, and the opposite of that, this sort of pursuit of avoidance in creating these kind of safe spaces is, well, kind of very well-intentioned is not based in science. In many ways, kind of opposed directly to what the science actually says around dealing with these kinds of issues. 

 

[00:15:22] JH: That's right. So if the goal is therapeutic, if the goal is actually to help people, then the whole culture of safety, as we call it, the idea that people are fragile and need to be protected from things that could trigger them or make them feel uncomfortable, is misguided. Again, that fortune, comfort zones are most often expanded through discomfort. 

So when students want to create a safe space, it comes out of feminist chat rooms in the 1990s. So if a group of women on the internet want to create a space where they can talk about experiences of sexual assault and rape and they want to say, “This is a safe space in which everyone will be supported.” That's totally fine. There's a right of free association. People want community. I mean, that strikes me as totally fine. 

The issue is, should this way of thinking be brought on to a college campus and should it ever be used when thinking about speakers on campus or classroom discussions? That's the question. That's where I believe we make a big mistake. By we, I just mean some students. Most students don't really go in for the safe space ideology. Most students are perfectly normal and healthy and tough. 

But there's been a new idea since around 2014, plus or minus a year, a new idea crept on to campuses fairly rapidly and spread very quickly about safe spaces, trigger warnings, micro-aggressions, cultural appropriation. I never heard any of these terms before 2014, and by 2016 they’re all over the academic world. 

[00:16:49] MB: So what do you think obviously that whole kind of ecosystem is starting to seep into the behavior and the thoughts of not just children, but many people around our society? How do we kind of bridge the gap between what the science and the research shows are kind of healthy reactions to negative stimulus and what the kind of emotional response of people often is?

[00:17:10] JH: Well, that's what we’re hoping, that a science trade book like ours will do some useful work. So this new morality of safetyism that emerged on college campuses around 2014-2015 is very quickly spreading from American college campuses, to British-Canadian, and more recently Australian universities. It’s not spreading on the continent of Europe. They don't have these ideas of safetyism. So it is spreading throughout the English-speaking world in higher ed. 

Then what became really clear last year, in 2017, is that it’s spreading very rapidly through certain industries; through media, technology, and journalism. Those of the three where I hear a lot of reports about it. So if you go to work, if you graduate from a liberal arts college that is all about safe spaces and things like that, then you go to work in a mining company or a manufacturing company, people are going laugh at you and you'll get over it quickly. 

But if you go to work at the New York Times or The Atlantic, they’re wonderful publications. I love those newspapers and magazines, but I've heard from people who work there that among the youngest, the interns, the youngest people, they’re bringing this idea in that certain viewpoint, certain people are so hateful, so unacceptable that we cannot give them a platform. We cannot listen to them. They are dangerous, their mere presence, their ideas are dangerous. 

Now, if there's any field that should understand the necessity of bringing diverse viewpoints together and of listening to both sides, it's journalism, also law and also the social sciences. In all of these places, this new philosophy of safetyism, it's a politicized notion. It's related to the culture war. It's undercutting the ability of these areas to do their work.

[00:18:48] MB: I think that's where these ideas in some way sort of concern me, aside from the whole conversation about sort of the therapeutic damage that they can cause potentially, is that when they kind of get in the way of the scientific pursuit of truth, I think that's where it gets kind of really concerning. 

[00:19:04] JH: That's right. That's a good way to put it. So a way that I began to think about this, is that human beings are very flexible. We can play a lot of different games, and each game has a different goal or endpoint, or telos as the ancient Greeks said. What's the purpose or function of something? 

So we can play the healing game if we are doctors or therapists where we try to make someone better, or we can play the discovery game when we try to figure out what's true. So for that, we often do try to consult diverse viewpoints. We have people debate and argue. We do this in juries. We do this in the science literature. 

So the truth seeking game is a very special game where you have to have people who will challenge your confirmation bias and, in turn, you challenge their confirmation bias. None of us are very good at finding the truth on our own. We’re all very, very good at finding evidence to support what we already believe. That's the confirmation bias, and that was at the heart of my second book; The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion. 

So we can do the healing game. We can do the truth seeking game, or we can do the victory game. That's where I know who's on my team. Other people are on the other team. You're either with us or against us. We’re good, you’re evil. Depending on the stakes, the ends will justify the means, and we must win. We must defeat you. 

Now, I think our politics is horrific. I don't want to get too political on this broadcast, but I certainly understand people who are playing the game of defeat the other side very passionately. Right now, there certainly is a place for the victory game of the war game, but the classroom is not it. The classroom is a very delicate ecosystem in which if people are afraid that they will be attacked personally for sharing an idea, they won't share their idea. If people don't share ideas that go against the consensus, then the whole system breaks down. The truth seeking game cannot be played. 

So this is what's happening not at most universities. Most universities are not overtaken by this, but if you look at the elite schools, especially in the Northeast and the West Coast and especially the liberal arts colleges, there's data showing that most students report self-censoring, especially around political or politicized topics, and anecdotal reports, whenever I go to these schools and I ask if they have a callout culture, all hands go up. People are afraid of speaking, afraid of challenging received wisdom, and this is terrible. This is a terrible environment to put young people in, but this is the way things have evolved especially in the last few years. 

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[00:21:34] MB: And I think that kind of gets to the third untruth that you talk about, which is this sort of battle between good and evil and how that can cause kind of cognitive distortion. 

[00:23:38] JH: That's right. So one of the big themes of the righteous mind was that we are tribal creatures. We evolve for tribalism. There's no other way to explain it. If you look at fraternity initiations at universities in America and you compare them, the initiation rites of pre-state societies, the pain, and fear, and disgust that is used, the rituals that take place exactly at midnight. There’s something on the human mind that really prepares us for tribalism. Men more so than women, young men especially go in for these tribal rituals, but it's very deep in our psyche, and this I think is the only explanation for sports. Why do we spend so much time and money on sports? Because we love tribalism, we love the battle of us versus them, and we can do it in a way that’s not harmful. Sports doesn't really make people hate the other side, except maybe in Britain. They have soccer hooligans and things like that. But for the most part, sports is friendly rivalry. 

Well, in academic life, it can be really destructive to interpret everything in a sociology class through the lens of us versus them, where us, let's say, is the left and them is the right, or to make it racial or gender, does a terrible disservice to the people engaged in the conversation. It prevents them from playing the truth seeking game. It dragoons them. It forces them into the victory game, and a lot of students don't want to play it, but they're afraid to stand up against it. 

[00:25:02] MB: So how can we start to kind of clear the way for the pursuit of truth and kind of the freedom to express any idea and evaluate whether it's true or not?

[00:25:14] JH: Yeah, it's hard, but I think it begins with an appreciation of the fact that we need boundaries around activities, and leadership must set those boundaries. So what I mean is the president of the university on the first day or when he or she welcomes the incoming class, of course, they talk about – They talk about diversity and inclusion, of course, but along with that they need to talk about what we're here to do. Why are we here? What is special about this place that you could not get if you just stayed home and went to the library every day, or found books on the Internet. What's special about this place?

So if they set norms about our mission, that we’re playing the truth seeking game, that we require disagreement, that we are trying to make a diverse community, and that means there will be frequent, almost constant misunderstandings. We have to all try not to give offense. I think it's useful to train students in those ways. But at the same time, we have to train everyone to give everyone else the benefit of the doubt. 

Diversity is hard, and I think some of the ways that we teach about diversity may amplify problems. Given that we’re tribal creatures, the more we play up identity and we teach students to judge each other based on their identity, the worst things will be. 

So I think leadership has a crucial role to play, especially at orientation on universities. They have to set rules, and just as we will not tolerate acts of racial hostility, or sexism. We’ll not tolerate those things. Similarly, we should not tolerate anyone shouting someone else down, preventing someone from speaking. So these are some of the most florid examples of what's been happening on college campuses, is speakers who get no platform, or shouted down because their views are deemed to be too hateful. 

The usual way to respond to that is to either just don't go to the talk, or debate the person. Show them where they’re wrong. Show the audience where the person is wrong, and that's the way things were on college campuses until around 2013-2014. That’s when this recent wave of shout downs have been.

A couple of them have involved violence, although for the most part they’ve been nonviolent.

[00:27:19] MB: It’s interesting, and in many ways when you can kind of silence the debates around these ideas, you prevent some of these more kind of racist and sexist perspectives from really being explored and dismantled, in many ways kind of create a space for them to kind of foster, because they can't be challenged because they can't be discussed. 

[00:27:36] JH: That's right. When you tell people, “You can't say that. You will be punished if you say that.” The response is never, “Oh gosh! Then I must be wrong. I'll stop thinking that.” The response is usually a kind of anger. It is an emotion in the psychological literature called reactants. Reactants is the angry feeling you get when you're told you can't do something or say something, or if you're pinned down. You have an extra strength to fight off restraint. People don't like that. 

And so in many ways, speech restrictions, the sort of thought policing, it makes a lot of people angry, and I think it makes especially young men much more interested in speakers and for that attack, that kind of political correctness. So there’s certainly has been a rise of – Again, I don't want to get into the debate about what is the alt-right and all those things, but I think the political polarization that we're seeing, I think many people on the left are shortsighted if they try to shut down kinds of speech. I think when they do that, they tend to simply make enemies and push people over to their opponents. 

In fact, I got a great quote here. Let me see if I can find. There’s a quote from Steve Bannon. Let’s see what did he say. He said, “The democrats, the longer they talk about identity politics, I got them. I want them to talk about racism every day. If the left is focused on race and identity and we go with economic nationalism, we can crush the democrats.” 

Now, that's a strategy decision. I'm not sure that he's right about it, but as a social psychologist, I think that there is at least some truth to that, that people on the left or some recent movements on the left, when they talk about these identity issues in ways that seem to attack people or treat people as evil, they make enemies, and it's often counterproductive. 

[00:29:23] MB: So kind of pulling back from the sort of moral or political element of this, I think you talk in the book as well about kind of how this culture of safetyism contributes to things like rising suicide rates and anxiety. Tell a little bit more about that. 

[00:29:38] JH: Yes. This is why I think that we will begin to see some change, because this isn’t just a debate about how to interpret things. What we're seeing is a very, very large and rapid with a sudden onset, a large rise in rates of anxiety and depression in adolescents. It's not a rise of bipolar disorder, or schizophrenia. It's not across the board and it’s not just people making up words or a new generation acting like it's, “Oh! We’re so depressed, because we’re happy. We’re comfortable talking about depression.” It’s not that. Because the suicide rate has shown the exact same thing and the hospital admission rate for self-harm has shown the exact same thing. 

Let’s see. I think I have some numbers here. Let me see if I have those numbers handy. So if you look at the suicide rate for adolescents, boys always have a high - Girls make more attempts, but boys have – Boys commit suicide more often, because they tend to jump off buildings, or use guns. They tend to use irreversible means. 

So boys have a higher rate, but what has happened since roughly 2011 is the rates of suicide and anxiety and depression began rising for boys. So the boys’ suicide rate is up 25%. If you take the average of the suicide rate for the United States for teenagers from 2001 to 2010, that was 11.9 per hundred thousand. That's risen to 14.8 per hundred thousand. So that's a 25% rise in boys killing themselves, teenage boys killing themselves. That's gigantic. That's a lot of kids. But compare that to the rate for girls, it was only 2.9 per hundred thousand if you average across the first decade of this century, and it goes from under three to now about five per hundred thousand. That is an increase of 70%. The girls’ suicide rate is up 70% if the last two years of data are pretty much identical at five per hundred thousand. 

So my point is that something rather sudden has happened. It hit us all by surprise. Over the last few years, we've been hearing reports from college campuses that the student counseling centers are overwhelmed that the line of students seeking help for depression and anxiety is way out the door. We can't meet the demand. Will, now, finally in last couple of years, we have really clear national data on this. So this is a catastrophe. This is a lot of dead kids, suffering kids, destroyed families. This is horrible what's happening. We’ve got to get a handle on it. 

Social media is clearly a big piece of the puzzle, and there’s a wonderful book called iGen, I-G-E-N, by Jean Twenge that goes into that, but we think that the other big, big piece of the puzzle is rather than just social media. The other big piece of the puzzle is that we cracked down on playtime and independence so severely in the 1990s that we've denied kids the thousands of hours of unsupervised play that they need to become self-governing adults. 

Kids need to have plenty of time to work out conflicts to be alone, to not have a parent there by them all the time, and because we've deprived kids of play and freedom so severely since the 1990s, we think that this is one of the reasons why as they get older they have failed to develop their psychological defenses. They're not as comfortable being on their own. When they come to college, they need a lot more help. 

[00:32:53] MB: I think that kind of underscores and comes back to what we were discussing earlier, which is the idea that this – And you make this point in the book as well, is this is kind of a pragmatic argument. It's not necessarily sort of a moral or political position, and yet in many ways the dialogue today kind of often prevents this sort of the rational discussion of this from taking place. 

[00:33:14] JH: Exactly. So I'm a social psychologist. I study how to help people get along, how to bridge political divides, and the debate about what’s going on on campus unfortunately is so politicized. So we have one side, people on the right and the right wing media saying, “Oh! Snowflakes and SJW, social justice warriors. They’re crazy.” 

We have the people in the left saying, “Oh! You know, the alt-right and the racists, and the homophobes,” and all sorts of bigotry, and each side has real things that they can point to. Each side is not crazy, but they're just making the problem worse, and what Greg and I are trying to do in our book is put aside all moralism. We’re not blaming anyone. The subtitle of the book is really what the book is about. It’s how good intentions and bad ideas are setting up a generation for failure. 

We’re trying to cut through the partisan nonsense and just say, “What does the psychology tell us about child development? What does the psychology tell us about intellectual development in college? What kinds of ideas, or climates, or norms are conducive to growth and which kinds impede it?” So that's what we’re trying to do in the book, is just take a very pragmatic approach to diagnosing a serious problem and then recommending solutions. 

[00:34:29] MB: I think it’s worth noting as well that I know we’ve talked a lot on the show about sort of child development and sort of focusing on children and universities. But the reality is that these principles of growth and the psychology research around how to improve and grow and move out of your comfort zone, this applies to anybody and everybody and there's many people whose growth is limited by kind of the perspective that they should avoid or kind of wall off things that they disagree with as opposed to sort of facing them head on. 

[00:34:56] JH: That's right. I think that habit is clearly taught by social media. So it's not really clear what to do about this. So the generation we’re talking about, igen, or genz, kids born after 1995. They’re the first in history to grow up with social media, millennials got it when they were in college or later. They didn't have it as teenagers, but igen got it when they were 13, a lot of them 13 or 14. 

So the world is incredibly safe now. The crime rate is over. Rates of child deaths and accidents plummeted. The world is physically very, very safe for today's young people, but live much of their life on social media where there's all kinds of nastiness, and racism, and sexism, and social media offers people the chance to block other people. 

So if you grow up being exposed to bad words, which of course are upsetting, and then you can block those people, then you come to college and somebody, the college republicans have invited some speaker that you think is hateful. Why can't we block them? Why do we have to have them on our campus? 

So I think their habits of thought that are developed by a grown up in a social media ecosystem that are not good for living in a democracy. Democracy is messy. You're always going to dislike the other side, and somehow we have to learn to work with each other. My fear is that the youngest generation has grown up with such vivid examples of Democratic dysfunction and with tools to block out other people. 

So I think when they grow up and take over the reins of governance, they may not be as prepared as some previous generations were. That's my fear. I don't know what will happen, but that is a concern. 

[00:36:29] MB: I wrote a piece a couple of months ago around the same idea that essentially we live in a world today, and social media is a big piece of it, that algorithms essentially sort of reinforce constantly our own kind of confirmation bias. We live in a bubble basically where we’re almost never exposed to any ideas that we disagree with. It's such a major contributor to the polarization in our society today. 

[00:36:51] JH: That's right. So the Internet and social media have done two things that are very, very powerful. So we've known since the 1990s, as soon as we got search engines, like Google, and before that, AltaVista, that the internet makes it very easy to confirm whatever you want to believe. So you can start only consulting sources that you like, and of course the media ecosystem has been very conducive to that. 

So there's the filter bubble problem. We’re all sure that we’re right. We become more self-righteous, more angry at the other side. But the other effect, which is very different and I think is perhaps more pernicious, is that the costs of punishing others have gone way, way down and the benefits to doing so have gone way, way up. 

What I mean by that is that we all live in an economy of prestige, that is just as you get paid for some things and you get billed for others, when you do something socially, you either gain credibility or prestige points or you lose them. So if everybody is incentivized to – You gain prestige by doing well in the test or by making money, you'll try to do well on test and you’ll try to make money, and that may have some negative social repercussions. But for the most part, those are not so bad. 

But if you are incentivized to condemn others, if you get points for calling out others – So if someone says some perfectly innocent thing or they wear a piece of clothing that you can criticize and call it culturally insensitive, if you get points for doing that, well that’s how you get a call out culture. So young adults today, or teenagers, are for the most part it seems immersed in ecosystems that many of the elements of a call out culture. What that means is that they grow up such that everything they say has almost infinite downside potential. Anything you say could be taken out of context. Maybe you slip. You use a word you're not supposed to use, and you can be pilloried for and you can be publicly shamed for it and others will join in, because they get credibility points. They get prestige points for jumping on the pylon. 

So the internet has enabled not just the informational distortions of a bubble, but the social distortions of mob or vigilante justice. It’s not exactly justice, but mob dynamics. I think we have to really be sympathetic to the young generation growing up like this. So when they come to college, yeah, they're more reluctant to speak up in seminar classes, they’re more reluctant to challenge prevailing, the norms or whatever is the dominant view in the classroom. So their education suffers because of it. 

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[00:41:07] MB: And that kind of gets to something else that I've heard you speak about, this idea that the sort of – The sort method of scientific thinking is an unnatural sort of way of thinking and the kind of religious mode of thinking. I’ll let you kind of explain what that means, because it’s not necessarily religious. It’s sort of our more natural kind of method of thinking. 

[00:41:27] JH: Yeah. So I love to think evolutionarily. I think human beings are the most fascinating species that’s ever lived. I'm really glad that I'm one of them, and we have an amazing origin story. A part of the origin story is we have to get from where upright walking apes about 3 or 4 million years ago. We’re not human in any real sense. We’re just like chimpanzees or guerrillas who happen to have stood up, chimpanzees or bonobos who happened to have stood up vertically. Somehow we get from there to civilization, and it seems – At least the story that I tell in the righteous mind is that a really big part of the transition was because we developed religion. I don't mean large-scale religion. I mean, tribal dynamics in which we circle around something. Make it sacred. We worship a tree, or a rock, or an ancestor's skull. There are forms of traditional or tribal religion that are very, very similar around the world. 

In doing that, we create a moral order, we create a set of rules and norms that bind us together, and this is especially effective as we’re fighting the next tribe over. So we have a long period of evolution for tribalism. So if we evolved for that, and then we develop these large-scale religions only very recently; Christianity, and Hinduism, and Judaism. These religions are very recent, and in some ways now they're not fading out, I wouldn't say, but more and more Americans say that they’re spiritual, but not religious.

What that means is that they have all the same religious psychology that we've always had. We think about sin, and sacredness, and blasphemy, and sacrilege, and things like that. They have all the same psychology, but without an organized religion. Sometimes those religious psychological tendencies show up in new social movements, and this is what some people are saying about some elements of social justice. 

So social justice of course is crucial if people are being denied access or dignity because of their category membership, then that is a social injustice. So in the book, we’re very clear that social justice is a good thing. There are certain meanings of social justice that are so consistent with deep intuitive notions of justice. But at times, people fighting for a cause drift into a tribal mindset in which they can become like religious inquisitors, and a lot of people are writing about this now. There's a lot of interesting pushback from people who are not white males who are now writing about the ways that identity politics and the social justice movement have in some ways gone too far, gone off the rails, or imported some kind of ugly tendencies. So that’s something that we’re very concerned about. 

[00:44:05] MB: So how do we, kind of as you put it in the book, wise up to thinking more clearly around all of these various problems?

[00:44:14] JH: Yeah. So it's a really multifaceted problem, and therefore there's no simple answer. In the book, we conclude that there are six causal threads, six different causes of the problem, and the briefest list is rising political polarization with political purification of the faculty. Rising mental illness, especially depression, overprotective, paranoid parenting, the loss of play, the bureaucratization and incorporatization of universities and some new ideas about social justice and identity politics that, as I said, I think are often counterproductive. So those are the six trends. 

Some of those can't really be reversed. So what we recommend in the book is break the problem into what are we doing to kids before they reach college? Let's stop doing that, or at least really keep our eye on what is healthy developments and kids can live independently. In the second piece is what kinds of environments they find once they arrived in college? Though I should say, a lot of the dynamics are now happening in high schools, especially private schools, prep schools, are changing very rapidly as far as I can tell. 

So on the child-rearing front, I think we need a lot more free range parenting. So there's a wonderful woman, Lenore Skenazy, wrote a book called Free Range Kids after she let her nine-year-old son ride the subway in 2009 and he survived. He wanted to do it. He rode a few steps by himself. A lot of people were upset by this, like, “Oh my God! How dare you let your kid ride the subway? He could be abducted.” So she started based on those experiences. She started a movement called Free Range Parenting. 

Lenore and I and a few other people have recently grown this movement into a group called Let Grow. So if listeners go to letgrow.org, especially those who are parents. If you want advice on how to raise kids, go to letgrow.org, and we have a lot of advice based on scientific research. A lot of it for how do you give kids a healthier childhood that will make them stronger, more resilient adults? That's the first piece. 

Second piece is what do we do on campus? There, it just requires leadership, and leadership at many universities has been reactive, not proactive. So if you wait for things to blow up, if you wait for there to be a protestant and demands over somebody who said some word that somebody didn't like, to wait for that to happen, it’s very hard to get a handle on things. 

But if you lay out the norms very clearly upfront on the first day of class, the first day of orientation about what we’re trying to do here, the special role of universities. How we need to give each other the benefit of the doubt. If you have good clear leadership and you emphasize that this is different from the public square, this is not about fighting the political war. We’re doing something different here. I think you can create environments in which students can grow intellectually. They can have some space away from the culture war that's likely to rage for the rest of their lives once they leave college.

[00:47:07] MB: I know you also talk about kind of a framework called the Chicago Principles. Could you share those and kind of why that's so important?

[00:47:14] JH: Yes. So these issues, the issues we’re talking about now about students protesting, speakers, things like that, they didn't just start in 2013. There was a wave of that in the 1960s. In Britain, they call it no platforming. So there've been students making demands on universities for a long time. When I was in college, I went to Yale in the early 1980s, and then it was all about compelling the University to divest from South Africa. 

So students have applied pressure to universities for a long time, and that's understandable. That's normal politics. But if you're running the university, many leaders have observed that their job is just impossible. Because if they agree to do what the students want on .1, well, a third of the university community believes the opposite and a lot of the alumni deal with. 

What happens if you take sides? It's the same problem that corporate leaders are now having with their push to take sides on Donald Trump or anything else. It's antithetical to the spirit of the enterprise if leadership and the institution has to take sides on every issue. 

So the University of Chicago put together under the leadership of Professor Jeffrey Stone, they wrote a great document; The Chicago Principles on Freedom of Speech, I think is what it was called. The key point is that the university provides a platform on which all members are free to speak, free to contend, free to make their case, but the university does not take sides. As long as you say that, then you instantly redirect student efforts from protests to demand that the university do X, Y or Z to students arguing with each other, which is what they should be doing. 

So the Chicago Principles can really help insulate universities from the kind of pressure campaigns that many are getting and let them focus on providing an open platform not for everyone in the world. We don't want every holocaust denier and neo-Nazi to 00:49:22, but at least students should be free to speak and argue with each other and they should learn to make their case with evidence and good arguments.

The Chicago Principle is a very simple fix, but it's a step that every school should take to endorse them, to have a clear policy that people get to speak, nobody gets shouted down, and the university is not going to take sides in your debates. 

[00:49:22] MB: I know we touched on a number of sort of semi-political themes in this interview, and I want to underscore again this point that we discussed earlier. My personal perspective on this is sort of purely pragmatic. I'm concerned with how do we sort of discover the best possible strategies for improvement? How do we determine what the scientific research says? Ultimately, how do we pursue truth? When I think about my kind of intellectual heroes, people like Carl Sagan and Charlie Monger, the pursuit of truth and trying to really discover what's true is of such sort of fundamental importance to me. The issue can often get politicized. But I want to kind of bring that back and just reemphasize what you’ve discussed and said many times in this conversation that this is a discussion of what does the scientific research say and how do we create a society where we can have healthy, happy, psychology well-formed individuals and we can pursue truth. 

[00:50:18] JH: That's right. That's beautifully put. The one thing I would just add to that is that it's hard to just say, “Oh, we're just pursuing truth here. No politics.” Well, we’re often guided unconsciously by what we want to be true. So if a research community has no political diversity, then that research community is going to surprise – Not surprisingly find, but the scientific research supports what it believed all along. 

So just as when psychology was all male, it came to some erroneous conclusions about gender and about women's psychology, and it was very important to get women into psychology. So in the same way, the social science isn’t particularly left. There are many reasons for that, and would never have universities where half the faculty are conservative. There are a lot of psychological reasons why progressives are more drawn to the activities of faculty members. 

But when the imbalance gets severe, as it has gotten in the last 10 or 15 years, when we lose viewpoint diversity, then the science itself is at risk. The conclusions of science about politicized topics are no longer reliable. 

So what a lot of my work is on is not trying to help any group. I'm sometimes accused of trying to help conservatives, because I think we need more conservatives in the academy. But what I'm really trying to help are university and trying to help the process, that if you don't have diversity you’re liable to have some bad thinking. So we have to think very carefully about the process, the social process, the institutional process by which imperfect flawed, post hoc reasoning creatures like us who evolve to dance around campfires and worship rocks and trees. What kind of process and culture puts us together? Is that we end up producing reliable science. That's kind of an amazing story. It's a process that's easily corrupted, and that's what I'm really trying to work on in a lot of my projects and it’s what Greg and I are trying to work on in part in our book; The Coddling of the American Mind. 

[00:52:11] MB: So for listeners who want to kind of try to concretely implement some of the things we’ve discussed, what would be sort of a piece of homework or an action step that you would give them?

[00:52:21] JH: Well, first go buy the book. Buy a copy for all your friends and have them read it. I’m only being a little bit facetious, and that some of these problems are not ones you can address on your own. So the social media problem for raising kids is really hard to just crackdown on your own kid. I’m trying that now with my 12-year-old son and my 8-year-old daughter put on a program that limits them to two hours a day of internet use. It's very hard for me to do it on my home, because they say none of their other friends have this. They feel like they're being separated, because can't do – My son can't do Fortnight, and he can't do these battle games with three or four hours a day like his friends. 

But if you have a group or community; a school, a religious congregation that has a discussion about these problems, if you do things as a group, you can be much more effective. More generally, I would break it down into are you trying to improve a school? Are you trying to improve an office or a company? Because these problems are flooding into the corporate world. So listeners are going to find these issues coming to them at work increasingly over the next few years. 

So try to define what's the system that you’re hoping to reform or improve, and then think about what changes would keep healthy dynamics of debate, and discourse, and respectful disagreement. 

[00:53:36] MB: For listeners who want to learn more and find you and your work online, where's the best place to do that?

[00:53:41] JH: We have a website for the book at thecoddling.org. I cofounded an organization called heterodoxacademy.org. I also cofounded this project that's just grown wonderfully at openmindplatform.org, and that's a program we developed that will help any community learn to talk more openly, learn skills of productive disagreement. 

So our most powerful tool is the open mind program at openmindplatform.org. We produce a wonderful book of John Stuart Mills, On Liberty, just The Second Chapter. Arguments about freedom of speech and why it's so important in a liberal democracy. So if you go to heterodoxacademy.org/mill, you can find our Mill book. It's free, a free PDF download or an inexpensive Kindle. So we have a variety of resources that will help individuals and groups to maintain or improve the climate for healthy productive discourse and disagreement. 

[00:54:42] MB: Well, Jonathan, thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing all these wisdom, a very important and very timely topic. 

[00:54:49] JH: Well, thanks so much, Matt. I really enjoyed our conversation. 

[00:54:51] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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December 17, 2020 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making, Emotional Intelligence
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How to Think Like A Rocket Scientist with Ozan Varol

July 23, 2020 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making

In this episode, we dig deep into the science of decision making and thinking with best-selling author Ozan Varol. Ozan and I discuss how to pivot, dig into his incredible story and life journey, and how we can question our assumptions and challenge our own opinions!

Ozan Varol is a rocket scientist, award-winning law professor, and author. While at Cornell University, he served on the operations team for the 2003 Mars Exploration Rovers project that sent two rovers to Mars. He later became a law professor to influence others to make interplanetary leaps on this planet. He has written numerous award-winning articles that are taught in colleges and graduate schools. His work has been featured in domestic and foreign media, including BBC, TIME, CNN, Washington Post, Slate, and Foreign Policy. He is the author Think Like a Rocket Scientist: Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life.

  • What it’s like being on a team that sent a rover to Mars. 

  • How to think like a rocket scientist by thinking big, flirting with uncertainty, and facing failure head-on. 

  • How to solve a problem when, in the past, there’s been no solution. 

  • Lessons from some of the world’s top innovators. 

  • How to begin to question your assumptions. 

    • Spend an entire day questioning all the assumptions you make that day. 

  • What is a pre-mortem - and why it helps keep you out of trouble and avoiding failure? 

  • How to leverage outsiders to make sure you’re not missing any gaps in your own decision-making process. 

  • How to fight groupthink. 

  • Kill Your Intellectual Darlings - Beat the sh*t out of your own ideas. 

  • Why the Growth Mindset is 100% science. 

  • The two questions you must absolutely ask to fight your inner critic in any situation. 

  • How to make a decisive and beneficial pivot in your own life.

  • What are the first principals and how do we leverage them in our own lives?

  • How Elon Musk created SpaceX and built his own rockets. 

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Ozan’s Website and Wiki Page

  • Ozan’s Newsletter - The Contrarian

  • Ozan’s LinkedIn

Media

  • Article Directory on Medium, HuffPost, The Ladders, and  Heleo

  • Google Scholar Citations - Ozan Varol

  • Muck Rack - Ozan Varol

  • [Faculty Profile] Lewis & Clark Law School - Ozan Varol

  • Gretchen Rubin - “Ozan Varol: “A Moratorium on Failure Is a Moratorium on Progress.””

  • WorkHuman - “Can Rocket Science Prevent Herd Thinking?” by Sarah Payne

  • Quartz - “I’m a law professor, and I teach my students how to destroy American democracy” By Ozan Varol

  • Nir & Far - “Why You Don’t Have to Be a Rocket Scientist to Think Like One” by Nir Eyal

  • [Podcast] The Accidental Creative - Think Like A Rocket Scientist (with Ozan Varol)

  • [Podcast] How to Be Awesome at Your Job - 563: Accelerating Your Career by Thinking Like a Rocket Scientist with Ozan Varol

  • [Podcast] The Jordan Harbinger Show - 338: Ozan Varol | How to Think Like a Rocket Scientist

Videos

  • Khe Hy - How to Think Like a Rocket Scientist with Ozan Varol

  • Today In Space - Ozan Varol, author of 'Think like a Rocket Scientist' | People of Science TIS#195

  • The Unmistakable Creative Podcast - Ozan Varol: Think Like a Rocket Scientist

  • BigSpeak Speakers Bureau - Ozan Varol - Sample Keynote

  • David Meltzer TV - Ozan Varol: You Don’t Have To Be a Rocket Scientist To Think Like One | The Playbook

  • Leverage - Ozan Varol on How Lawyers Can Be Most Effective - Episode #286

Books

  • Think Like a Rocket Scientist: Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life  by Ozan Varol

  • The Democratic Coup d'État  by Ozan O. Varol

  • Audiobook Directory - Ozan Varol

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[00:00:10] AF: Hello, everyone. Welcome to another episode of the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the Internet with over five million downloads and listeners in over 100 countries. Thank you for listening. My name is Austin Fabel.

Today, we have an incredible interview with a man named Ozan Varol. Ozan is a rocket scientist, award-winning law professor and author. While at Cornell University, he served on the operations team for the 2003 Mars Exploration Rovers Project that sent not one, but two rovers to Mars. In this interview, we dig deep into the science of decision-making and thinking. We really dig into his incredible story and his journey. I cannot wait to share this interview with you.

Then we dig into how we can question our assumptions and challenge our own opinions and ultimately, think like a rocket scientist.

Are you a fan of the show? Head over to www.successpodcast.com and sign up for our e-mail list today. You're going to get a ton of free goodies, including a guide as soon as you sign up, you'll get our newsletter called Mindset Monday, as well as immediate access to all of our interviews when they go live.

Are you on the go right now? Not a problem. Just text Smarter, that's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to 44-222 to get subscribed today.

Without further ado, enjoy our interview with Ozan Varol.

[00:01:34] AF: Ozan, welcome to the Science of Success.

[00:01:36] OV: Thank you so much for having me on, Austin.

[00:01:38] AF: Well, it's great to have you on. I really appreciate you taking the time and digging through your work, I’ve got to say it's an honor to have you on. You've got a very, very interesting background and I’d love to start there. For listeners who may not know you or be familiar with your work, share your story with us. Tell us a little about your journey and some of the past projects you've worked on, then of course, we'll dig into what you're working on now as well. Very excited about that.

[00:01:58] OV: Sounds good. I was born and raised in Istanbul, Turkey. I lived there for 17 years. Grew up in a family of no English speakers. Started to learn English, I think it probably would have been around 11. Then came to the United States for college. I majored in astrophysics at Cornell. While there, I worked on the operations team for the Mars Exploration Rovers Project.

My interest in astrophysics really began when I was, I think this would have been around five or six-years-old in the apartment that I grew up in Istanbul. We get these really frequent blackouts, which would scare the crap out of me as a five-year-old and my dad came up with this game. He would grab my soccer ball, light up a candle and he'd rotate the soccer ball around the candle and the candle would be representing the sun and the soccer ball the earth. Those were my very, very first astronomy lessons and I was hooked.

After that, I became obsessed with astronomy, getting my hands on every astronomy book, every science fiction book I could find. My dream was to eventually come to the United States to work on a space mission of some sort.

Before I arrived, I think this was a couple weeks before I got to Cornell, I was looking at what the astronomy department was up to and I saw that one of the professors, his name is Steve Squires, was in charge of this planned mission to Mars. There was no job listing, but I just decided, “Hey, I’m just going to reach out to him and ask if I can work for him.” I taught myself how to program in high school. I just e-mailed him, attached my resume and said, “I would just die to work for you.”

The moment I arrived at Cornell, he invited me in for an interview and I got the job and the rest is history. I got to work on this amazing mission that went to Mars in 2003. We had built these rovers to last for 90 days each. We sent two. Their names were Spirit and Opportunity. Spirit ended up lasting for six years and I still get chills when I say this, but Opportunity rove the red planet for nearly 15 years. This is 15 years into its 90-day mission. It was such an honor to work on that project. That eventually culminated in the book that I wrote that recently came out called Think Like a Rocket Scientist.

[00:04:26] AF: Such an incredible background. I love everything from just the imagery of your dad instilling this curiosity and using a soccer ball and a candle. Then also, one of the biggest questions we get about the show is how do you get these people to come on the show? We've interviewed a lot of folks. The answer really is just we've reached out. A lot of people don't really know what they can get if they just ask. I think that you reaching out cold, there's no job description, but you saw something that you wanted to be a part of, and reaching out and taking the initiative to not just look at the website and say, “Oh, there's no job postings. They must not be looking for anybody.” Really taking the bull by the horns, to use the metaphor, and really making reality out of your dreams.

[00:05:07] OV: That's such an important point. I do remember writing that e-mail. Before I hit send, the voice of the inner critic showed up and basically said, “What are you doing? You're going to make a fool out of yourself. There is no job listing. You're not qualified. You're a skinny kid with a funny name from a country halfway around the world, who has a really thick accent at the time, which eventually disappeared. What could you possibly contribute to this?”

Then I asked myself two questions, which are still two questions that I ask myself to this day whenever I’m afraid of making a leap. The first question is, what's the worst that can happen? Now the worst that can happen in a scenario like that is I just never hear back from him, right? He just ignores my e-mail saying like, “Okay. This guy is a fool. He has nothing to contribute, so I’m not going to invite him in.” That is the worst that can happen.

Then the second question I ask, which often we don't ask is what's the best that can happen? What is the most optimal outcome out of the scenario? It's really important to ask that question, because our mind is, I’m quoting Rick Hansen here, but it's velcro for negative thoughts and teflon for positive ones. When we think of worst-case scenarios, those tend to get exacerbated in our heads. It's really important to ask a second question of like, “Well, what's the best that can happen?” In my case, the answer to that was I got to work on a Mars mission. I get to do this thing that I’ve dreamed of doing since I was five-years-old. I asked myself those questions and when the answers are in front of you, the course of action is so clear. I clicked send and I’m so glad I did.

[00:06:53] AF: Yeah, that's incredible story. I think it's so relatable for a lot of people. It's funny that you quote Rick Hansen. We actually, Matt, our other host was actually slated to interview him right now on another line –

[00:07:04] OV: That’s awesome.

[00:07:05] AF: He just rescheduled last minute and we're going to get Rick on. He's been on the show a couple of times, but what a funny circumstance. I think it's awesome too. I mean, when you look go through the worst that can happen and you say, “Well, the worst that’s going to happen is he doesn't respond.” I think, even in my head sometimes like, “Well, the worst could happen would be he'd forward the e-mail to all of his colleagues and there's a Washington Post article written about how we shouldn't call into Cornell for random jobs.” I can go a little deeper.

One thing also that I’ve heard from numerous guests about fear setting too is when you think about that worse that can happen, going a level deeper even, if that worst thing did happen, how hard would it be for you to get back to your current state? For you, it's like, you're already there. I mean, you're already in that current state, so there's really no stakes, at least not in the way that you might imagine them from that inner critic.

[00:07:49] OV: Yup, exactly.

[00:07:50] AF: I want to dig into the new book. It's a great book. I recommend picking up a copy for anybody listening. It's called Think Like a Rocket Scientist. Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life. Give us a little bit of the premise and I want to dive into some of the meat as well. Why did you decide to write this book?

[00:08:05] OV: I opened the book by telling the story of John F. Kennedy back in September 1962, when he steps up to the podium at Rice University Stadium and pledges to put a man on the moon and return him safely to the earth. Now at the time when he made that promise, people thought he was crazy. People sitting in the audience thought he was crazy, but officials at NASA thought he was out of his mind as well.

What he was promising was literally a moon shot, because so many of the prerequisite required for a moon landing hadn't been developed yet. No American astronaut had worked outside of a spacecraft. Two spacecraft had never docked together in space. We knew so little about the moon, NASA didn't know if the lunar surface would be solid enough to support a lander, or if the lander, if it like, you landed on there, it would just cave right through.

Some of the metals, Kennedy said, required to build the rockets, hadn't even been invented yet. We jumped into the cosmic void and hoped we'd grow wings on the way up. Grow those wings we did. A child who was just six-years-old when the Wright Brothers took their first power flight, which lasted all of 10 seconds and moved a 100 feet would have been 72 when flight became powerful enough to put a man on the moon and return him safely to the earth.

We looked at that giant leap and say, well, that's the triumph of technology, but I think that's a misleading story. It's really the triumph of the humans behind the technology and a certain thought process they used to turn the seemingly impossible into the possible. I wanted to write a book dedicated to that thought process. The premise of the book is look, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to think like one. You can take these nine simple strategies from rocket science and use them to make your own giant leaps in work and life, whether it's landing your dream job, developing a new skill, or creating the next breakthrough product.

Rocket science tends to be really intimidating, right? Hence the saying, it's rocket science, or it's not rocket science. I wanted to write a book not about the science behind rocket science, but about these strategies that rocket scientists use to approach problems, to deal with uncertainty, to deal with failure, to deal with success and how they use them to their own benefit.

[00:10:29] AF: I love the premise for the book. I think it's something that's definitely needed in the world now. It's not a topic that we are unaccustomed to here on the show. I mean, building mental models and teaching yourself how to think, to take your life to the next level is a huge focus, so I think the book really aligns with everything that we believe in and we try to bring to our audience.

It's such an interesting thought too that the things that these rocket scientists are trying to solve have never been solved before. You're really in a lot of ways, it's exciting because there's a blank slate. There's no traditional thinking to rely on that gives you guard rails that you might fall into. On the other hand, it can be very intimidating because you have no playbook. Again, I mean, the other side of the coin is you're – really, nothing's off the table, but nothing's been put on the table to begin with.

[00:11:13] OV: Absolutely. It can be really intimidating. I remember working on this Mars mission and we picked two landing sites for the two different rovers. We had some idea of what to expect from these landing sites, because we could look at the photos of the landing sites from orbit, but once we actually landed, they turned out to be so different from what we expected.

What we did was to learn the problems that Mars gave us, or try to solve the problems that Mars gave us, as opposed to the problems that we expected to solve. One of the ways we did that is use the Swiss Army Knife approach. We had so many different tools onboard the rover that could be adapted to different uses.

Now I mentioned this example, because it's particularly relevant to what's going on in the world right now. We're recording this episode around mid-May when the pandemic, the COVID-19 pandemic is going on full force. If you're in a position where the pandemic has disrupted the way you run your life, or the way you run your business, the question that we asked ourselves when we landed on Mars is also a useful question for you to ask yourself.

Instead of asking, okay, here are the problems that I expected to solve, but those problems are now off the table. How can I solve the problems that the universe threw at me? How can I use my skills, resources, products, services in a way that I haven't used them before, but that I need to use given the problems that the world needs solving at this particular point in time?

[00:12:50] AF: Yeah. It's such a great question to ask. I think when you even look – I mean, everyone's gotten an e-mail about a COVID-19 response at this point from everybody and their grandmother. I think a lot of the companies that have really thrived right now have done just that. I mean, I was reading an article today about a restaurant owner whose restaurant is Michelin stars. It's basically considered art, very much an experience, but they've actually maintained their entire staff and they've actually increased profits, because they were able to pivot so quickly and change what they were offering their customers and even their employees to make it all we're in this together.

For instance, they got rid of employee salaries. Everyone made $15 an hour. Anything above what they needed to cover cost was split among the staff. It's like, how do you take these things you've got and pivot what the goals were when everything was running the way that they should be, and then realign the incentives and what you're doing to match the goals of the current environment?

That brings us back to the nine essential principles in the book. I’d like to just list them out right now to give all the listeners a framework. You have become a connoisseur of uncertainty, reason from first principles, play mind games, reach for the moon, reframe questions, kill your intellectual darlings, which I’m going to dig into that for sure, test as you fly, fly as you test, do not fail fast and be wary of unbroken success. Now as we begin to peel these layers back, one that jumps out at me is just critically important is reason from first principles. Explain what that means to us.

[00:14:21] OV: Let me answer that with a story. The story is of Elon Musk starting SpaceX. When he first thought about sending rockets to Mars, what he first did was to shop on the American market first and then go to the Russian market as well, to purchase rockets that other people had built. That turned out to be really, really expensive. At the time, Elon Musk was a rich guy. He had just sold PayPal to eBay. Even given his budgets, the rockets were way too expensive.

He was about to give up actually, but then he realized that his reasoning was flawed in trying to buy rockets that other people had built. He realized that he was not reasoning from first principles. Reasoning from first principles means, basically taking a complex system and boiling it down to its non-negotiable sub-components. You're hacking through assumptions in your life as if you're hacking through a jungle with a machete to get to the fundamental raw materials.

For Elon Musk, reason informed first principles meant okay, set aside rockets that other people built. What does it take to actually build a rocket and put a rocket into space? He looked at the raw materials of a rocket. It turned out that if you tried to buy those raw materials on the market, it would be 2% of the typical cost of a rocket.

For him, it was a no-brainer. Using first principles he said, “All right. Well, I’m just going to build my rockets from scratch myself in the factory, as opposed to building rockets that other people had built.” First principles also led him to question another deeply held assumption in rocket science, which is that rockets for decades couldn't be reused. Once they launched their cargo into orbit, they would plunge into the ocean, or burn up in the atmosphere requiring an entirely new rocket to be built.

Now imagine for a moment doing that for commercial flights. I live in Portland, Oregon. I fly from Portland to Los Angeles, the passengers de-plane and then someone steps up to the plane and just torches it. That's basically what we did for rockets. By the way, the cost of a modern rocket is about the same thing as a Boeing 737, more or less. Commercial flight is so much cheaper, because airplanes can be reused quickly over and over and over again.

Elon Musk along with Jeff Bezos and his space company below origin, both questioned that deeply held assumption in rocket science that rockets couldn't be reused. Now at Cape Canaveral, there is a landing pad next to a launch pad for the rocket to land. I mean, there's still a ways to go, but both companies have refurbished and reused and sent numerous rocket stages back into space like certified pre-owned vehicles basically. That's all thanks to first principles thinking.

[00:17:30] AF: This episode of the Science of Success is brought to you by our partners at the Business Casual Podcast. Business Casual is a new podcast by Morning Brew that makes business news enjoyable, relatable and dare I say, even fun. Host, Kinsey Grant, interviews the biggest names in business, covering topics like how technology is changing, the fitness industry, to the economics of influencer marketing.

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[00:18:09] AF: Such an incredible story and it's really inspiring to think what other assumptions are we all making in our lives that we really haven't questioned, but might actually yield incredible results or breakthroughs. Part of that too is I know you've touched on the past how you can reverse engineer your own processes to find these holes in your thinking. How do we go about that? Say, I’ve always gone along Elon Musk, like I look around and I say, “Well, things have always been done this way.” How do I start to ask the right questions of myself and my thinking to find these breakthroughs?

[00:18:39] OV: There are a number of things you can do. One is to actually spend a day questioning your assumptions. Look at your routines, your habits, your budget items, your processes and ask yourself, “Why am I doing it this way? Can I get rid of this, or replace it with something better?” One example of that question for my own life is – so my book came out on April 14th and I had this big book tour plan that was going to travel all around the United States and give talks. With the pandemic, the book tour got cancelled.

I had to step back and ask myself and reason from first principles, think like a rocket scientist and ask myself, “All right. Can't do a book tour anymore. What can I do instead to get the word out about the book?” That actually forced me to question, whether it was a good idea to do a book tour in the first place? If I’m being honest with myself, I was doing a book tour not because I had reason from first principles, but because that's what I thought authors are supposed to do. You write a book, you go on a book tour. I was copying and pasting what other authors that I admire had done before me.

If you step back and ask yourself, is it really a good use of my time for me to fly to New York City from Portland across the country, go to a Barnes & Noble and sign books for 50 people? Or are there better ways for me to engage with my readers and get the word out that don't require a multi-day, multi-week commitment for me? The answer to that is absolutely yes.

I was able to come up with creative ways of getting the word out virtually after the pandemic forced me to question the status quo in my life. I think it's better to do this proactively as opposed to defensively by asking yourself, why am I doing what I’m doing? Can I get rid of this and replace it with something better?

Another tactic that I use is to bring outsiders into the conversation. Experts tend to be way too close to the problem to think differently. Don't get me wrong, expertise is really valuable. If you're trying to achieve something transformative, you usually need input from outsiders to whatever it is you're working on. This doesn't have to mean an expensive coach or a consultant. It can simply mean bringing in a friend, your significant other, or someone from a different division in your company to come in and ask yourself those like, what we pejoratively call dumb questions, but they're actually not dumb at all.

They go to some fundamental aspect of the problem that you're missing, because you are way too close to it to be able to spot the same outdated assumptions that you've been operating under for decades, for years. That's why, by the way, when you look at some of these gate crashers, like I mentioned two names, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos for the aerospace industry, they're outsiders. Elon Musk came from Silicon Valley. He learned about rocket science by reading rocket science textbooks. Jeff Bezos came from Amazon and they're both disrupting the aerospace industry.

Another example I give in the book is Reed Hastings and how he co-founded Netflix. He was an outsider to the video industry. He was a software developer before he co-founded Netflix, but he was able to spot the outdated assumptions in the video industry, the video rental industry. Meaning, you have to pay late fees, you have to have physical stores and question those assumptions to build a transformative product.

[00:22:16] AF: So powerful. I love all the examples there. The book tour example is very interesting to me too, because you go through all the just leg work that requires to reach 50 people. Then really, I mean, we find ourselves sitting here. I’m in my office, you're in yours. I’m in Nashville. You're in Oregon. We're going to reach probably more people than you would inside of a Barnes & Noble. It's the most impactful way forward is not always what's been done in the past and I just love the lesson.

[00:22:43] OV: Exactly.

[00:22:44] AF: There's another thing too and this must be a space thing, because you've spoken about something else which is brainstorming – before you make a decision, brainstorming all the reasons your idea might fail and how that can help ensure long-term success. We had a previous guest on, Commander Chris Hadfield. He said something extremely similar. He was just like, “Well, before we launch a mission up to the international space station, we go through everything that could possibly go wrong.” Then for him, he actually had a malfunction in his suit, caused some glass cleaner to go into his eye and he's basically on a spacewalk floating in outer space completely blind. He attributed his ability to stay calm and to get back in to that planning.

When you look through all the different negative possibilities, how do you go through all the ways the idea might fail? Then ultimately, what benefit does that give you when you're making your decisions?

[00:23:35] OV: There are two exercises that I like to use. One is called the pre-mortem, which is very similar to what Chris Hadfield described on the show. Basically, what you do is you assume that the project failed, so the mission was a failure. You work backward from that to figure out the reasons why it may have failed. Going back to my book, I might say okay, I have to turn in this book by April 2019, I think was my deadline, or May 2019 to the publisher. I’ll assume that that failed and I’ll work backward from that to try to figure out why it may have failed.

It may have failed because I spent too much time on the research and too little time on the writing. It may have failed, because I didn't hire the right people. By identifying everything that can go wrong beforehand and then planning ahead for those worst case scenarios is really, really powerful. For those who are listening, you can apply this in your own life by saying, “All right. Why might my boss pass me up for a promotion? Why is this prospective employer justified in not hiring me?”

In answering those questions, avoid answering them as you would that dreadful interview question, tell me about your weaknesses, which tends to induce humble bragging. People say things like, “I work too hard.”

[00:24:56] AF: I’ve been there before, maybe once or twice.

[00:24:58] OV: Yeah. Right, exactly. Instead, really get into the shoes of the person who might reject your promotion, or refuse to hire you and ask yourself why might that happen. Why are they making that choice? Those questions usually tend to pinpoint you to things that are lying in your blind spots that you'll be able to figure out by going through the motions here. You can do this at your company as well if you run a business. Doing this exercise gives your staff members some safety to come forward.

One of the things that derails success is group think. People don't want to be the skunk at the picnic. They're reluctant to raise their hands and voice dissent, because they fear retribution of some sort from their supervisors, or from their team members. When you say, “All right. We're going to conduct this exercise, where we assume that whatever we're working on failed,” then that gives people basically safety in coming forward and saying, “All right. There's actually this weakness with this project that's been bugging me. I haven't shared it until now, but I’m going to share it right now, because this is part of this exercise that we are conducting.” It can be a really, really powerful way of unearthing potential problems before you pull the trigger.

[00:26:20] AF: Yeah, I love that. I think it's so important too, it's a neat way to make an exercise out of allowing people to poke holes they may not feel comfortable bringing forward. I think everybody's been in that scenario before, where your mind is screaming like, “This isn't going to work. This isn't going to work.” But you don't want to be like you said, the skunk at the picnic. I’m going to have to use that in the future.

Let's dig back into some of the nine essential principles. Kill your intellectual darlings. I love the aggression in that advice. Tell us what it means.

[00:26:52] OV: That principle is so central to the way that scientists work. The scientific method basically requires you to come up with hypotheses to explain some phenomenon. Then what you do from there is to kill your intellectual darlings. You beat the crap out of your own ideas. That's the only way that scientists can begin to develop some confidence in their hypotheses. That I think is such a stark contrast to the way that we normally operate outside of the scientific world. We try to prove ourselves right, as opposed to prove ourselves wrong. This is particularly prevalent in politics. People don't change their minds.

When they do, they're usually accused of flip-flopping, or being the person who's not suited for political office. Whereas for scientists, changing your mind is the name of the game. That's what scientists do. If you discover facts that call into question an assumption you have, a hypothesis you had, you welcome that, because the goal in science is to not be right, but to find what's right.

I think that goal is really important outside of science as well. That's how you develop confidence in your own ideas. You don't learn anything by trying to prove yourself right, which by the way with biases like the confirmation bias, for example, we look for evidence and facts that confirm what we think we know. When you Google a search result, or when you Google a question, you probably have some idea as to what to expect and when those answers come up, you're going to click on the first link that confirms your preconceptions about that.

That means you're not learning anything new. To be able to learn something new and grow, you should look for evidence that this confirms, that falsifies what you think is true, as opposed to the other way around. This is becoming increasingly harder, because we've been algorithmically sorted into these echo chambers. We friend people like us on Facebook. We follow people like us on Twitter. When we see dissenting opinions, it's so easy to disengage from them. Just unfriend, unfollow, unsubscribe.

That means we're also not being exposed to ideas that are different from our own. When this creates all sorts of problems, it becomes really hard to then engage with people who are on the other side of the spectrum, but it also means that your own ideas aren't being stress tested as much as they should be, nearly as much as they should be, which means you've got blind spots that you're not seeing.

[00:29:37] AF: Yeah, many great points there. I think it's also the algorithm thing has always really, really intrigued me. I guess, it was about two years ago at Thanksgiving. I was sitting around with some family members and I just realized, Facebook has ruined Thanksgiving and family holidays. Because on one side, you've got the members who – I mean, I don't want to get political here, but Republican and Democrat, the two main sides. Then you've got people at the table. In my family, we've got both sides represented.

Everyone speaks as though it's a foregone conclusion that everyone else at the table has their opinion, because that's all they see on Facebook. It's like, “Man, everyone must be seeing these articles.” It really, at least in my personal scenario, it really unhinged a bunch of people's tongues, especially after a couple glasses of wine that they exacerbated the situation.

Looping back to the whole idea of killing your intellectual darling, something you said really rang true to me and that is they want to change their opinions. They want to find what's right. It reminds me of Carol Dweck and a lot of her work on mindsets and specifically, the growth mindset. As a scientist, you shouldn't be concerned of looking right and looking like the hero and the genius and all the credits.

What the focus really is is finding what's true. Then adopting that into what you do and move forward and how we build out the world that we live in technologically and scientifically. It's not about credit and it's not about being afraid to flip-flop and change your opinion, because of new information, which really strikes me as something that I think everyone, especially in today's world of sound bites and social media could really, really stand to learn from. It's not about winning the argument, it's about learning more.

[00:31:20] OV: Exactly. When it becomes about winning the argument, we lose so much in the process. I mean, one of the side effects of this is – of the dynamic you described at Thanksgiving table is our beliefs start to become intertwined with our identities. If you believe in primal eating, you become paleo. If you believe in a plant-based diet, you become a vegan. If you do CrossFit, you're a CrossFitter. When your beliefs are intertwined with your identity, it means changing your mind is tantamount to changing your identity, which is really, really difficult for people to do, which is why by the way, simple disagreements in the modern world turn into these just existential death matches, because so much more than our beliefs and our arguments are at stake, it is our identity that's at stake.

One way to overcome that barrier is to again, try to kill your intellectual darlings and put some separation between your identity as a person and your beliefs. Scientists do that all the time. Scientists are not their opinions. They are not their hypotheses. The moment, by the way, they wrap up their identity around the hypothesis is when they start fooling themselves. As Richard Feynman says, the first principle is you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. It really pays off to put some separation between you as a person, your arguments and your beliefs and then seek this confirming evidence.

One of the examples I’ve done that with writing the book is when I finish the draft, I have this support network of friends and colleagues and mentors and I went to them to get feedback on the book. The first question I asked them was, what is wrong with the book? Tell me what needs to be cut. Tell me what needs to be taken out of the book. Tell me what parts of the book don't make sense, because I need to hear them from you now, not a year from now when the book is published.

That questioning, inviting dissent and inviting this agreement going back to safety and what we talked about before with the pre-mortem, gives people the freedom if they're otherwise reluctant to share criticism with you, if they're more prone to praising your work, that question, that affirmative stance on your part of asking tell me what's wrong with this, will give them safety to come forward and actually share the crucial critical feedback you need to make your work much better than it was before.

[00:33:58] AF: Yeah. That's such a great best practice. I feel like I’ve heard that before. I think Tim Ferriss does something similar to that. He's accredited that to being one of the best tools for writing a book and making sure that it hits on the first time out.

One of the other principles that you touched on, I want to be respectful of your time and I will begin to wrap up here in a minute with a couple of rapid fire questions. One of the essential principles is play mind games. As a big fan of games in general, strategy games, video games, board games, card games, what are you talking about here?

[00:34:30] OV: I’m referring specifically to conducting thought experiments. The example that opens that chapter is a 16-year-old Albert Einstein sitting and asking himself, what would it be like to ride next to a beam of light? That question, by the way, sounds nonsensical. He sat with that question for 10 years and the answer he came up with resulted in the special theory of relativity.

We are so reluctant to pose those thought experiments to play mind games, to set up the sorts of scenarios we set up in our heads, like fantasy worlds we set up in our heads when we were little kids. That I think on the research shows, undermines creativity. When we don't pause and think and deliberate and carve off time and space in our lives for free thinking, our creativity suffers as a result.

There is a section in the play mind games chapter called why you should get bored more often. Boredom to me, a few years ago, I remember distinctly, I was getting out of bed, I reached over to my phone to get my daily dose of notifications. It I had an epiphany. I realized that I hadn't been bored in such a long time. Because I was moving from one meeting to the next, one notification to the next and I wasn't carving off time for boredom, which I would define as spending large amounts of unstructured time free of distractions.

When you don't do that, your subconscious doesn't have the ability, doesn't have the space it needs to connect different ideas in your head, to cross-pollinate what you're working on, to solve problems. The decline of boredom in my own life and research I cite in the book bears this out, corresponded with also a decline in my creativity.

One of the things I did was to become really purposeful about carving off these spaces and time in my life to think. I have a recliner in my office and I’ll sit there for 20 minutes just with every day, just with a notepad and a pen. Some of the best ideas that have occurred to me in recent memory have come up during those moments of silence. This is really hard to innovate. It's really hard to be creative when you're busy trying to get to inbox zero. That's not when innovation happens.

Hustle and innovation are antithetical to each other. As the saying goes, it’s the silence between the notes that makes the music. There are so many examples that I cite in the book that are cited elsewhere and discussed elsewhere as well, one of the ideas and I’m sure, those who are listening to this, know ideas tend to come in the shower, ideas tend to come when you're walking, ideas tend to come when you're cooking, when you're letting your brain rest and make the type of connections that it needs to make, to be able to generate breakthrough ideas.

In today's day and age, we need to be really purposeful about doing that. I would highly recommend that people carve off time. You might call it airplane mode, for you to just sit and do nothing, but think.

[00:37:51] AF: Yeah. It's such a powerful tool and so often overlooked. Like you said, I mean, I think everyone's had that aha moment while sitting in the shower, or standing in the shower, rather hopefully. Well, great Ozan. This has been incredible. I really appreciate the time. You've been very generous with us.

I want to close with just one last question and then I want to let listeners know where they can find you. Obviously, thinking like a rocket scientist, great framework for anybody listening to the show now. Who do you think is the greatest thinker of our time?

[00:38:22] OV: That's a great question. There are so many role models in my life, but the first name that jumped to mind when you asked that question, Austin, was Adam Grant. Adam's work – I mean, he is such a brilliant thinker, but he does what a lot of academics don't do, which is to take these seemingly esoteric and hard to translate academic concepts and share them with popular audiences in a way that anyone can understand.

If you read his books, like Give and Take and Originals, the final product looks so easy and so simple and so adjustable from the perspective of a popular audience, but it conceals a really, really difficult messy work of looking at esoteric academic research and actually simplifying it. That I think is a really, really hard thing to do and Adam does it brilliantly.

[00:39:25] AF: Yeah. We love Adam. We've actually been fortunate enough to have him on the show as well and he's just incredible individual to be, as young as he is and who’ve accomplished what he's accomplished.

Ozan, thank you so much for the time. Please let us know where we can find more. Where can we buy the book? Where can we learn more about you and your work? Where would you direct us?

[00:39:43] OV: The best way to keep in touch with me is through my e-mail list. I’m not active on social media. If you'd like to sign up for my e-mail list, you can go to weeklycontrarian.com and the e-mail goes out to over 21,000 people every Thursday. It just shares one idea that can be read in three minutes or less, that helps you, empowers you to reimagine the status quo. That's at weeklycontrarian.com.

Then my book, Think Like a Rocket Scientist, it's available wherever books are sold. I do have a special offer for your audience, Austin. If they head over to rocketsciencebook.com/success, I have a series of, I think it's 12 bite-sized, really quick-it three-minute videos that share practical actionable insights from the book that people can implement right away. You can find all of those videos at rocketsciencebook.com/success. You'll see instructions on there once you order the book and forward it to a specific e-mail address. I’ll share those videos with you.

[00:40:52] AF: You are too kind. Well, thank you so much for your time today. It's been a fascinating conversation. I would highly recommend anyone listening to go check out the book. Again, it's Think Like a Rocket Scientist. Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life. Ozan, thanks so much for the time today and best of luck in the future.

[00:41:09] OV: Thank you so much, Austin. It was my pleasure.

[00:41:11] AF: Thank you, everyone, again for listening. We're glad you spent some time with us here on the Science of Success. As a reminder, if you haven't already, head to our website and sign up for our e-mail newsletter, www.successpodcast.com. You'll get a ton of free goodies, including our free guide to remembering anything when you sign up. You'll also get access to our newsletter and our interviews as soon as they go live and all of the great content here on the Science of Success.

If you're on the go, don't forget to text smarter, that's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to 44-222 to get signed up today. We thank you for spending this time with us and we'll see you back here next week on the Science of Success.

[00:41:51] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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July 23, 2020 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making
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How to be Perfectly Confident Without Fooling Yourself with Dr. Don Moore

June 18, 2020 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making

In this interview, we share how you can finally make decisions with perfect confidence. We share what to do when you’re stuck in inaction and lack confidence in your decisions, and how to avoid being overconfident and making big mistakes with our guest Dr. Don Moore.

Dr. Don Moore is a professor at the Berkeley Haas School of Business, formerly at Carnegie Mellon. He is an expert in psychology with his main research focus on overconfidence. Don's research has appeared in popular press outlets and academic journals, including the New Yorker, the Wall Street Journal, NPR, the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Experimental Economics, and Psychological Review. Moore is the author of the soon to be released Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely, and he teaches popular classes on managing organizations, negotiation, and decision making.

  • How can you be confident in your decisions?

  • Ways that psychology research demonstrates we are often overconfident in the decisions we make:

    • Overestimation - thinking that you are better, faster, or more likely to succeed than you are

    • Overplacement - the exaggerated belief that you are better than others

    • Overpercision - excessive faith that you have the right answer. 

  • Thinking probabilistically, view the future in probabilities and distributions of outcomes as opposed to one specific outcome. 

  • Ask yourself: WHAT ARE YOU WRONG ABOUT RIGHT NOW?

  • Calibrating your confidence includes appreciating all the reasons why you might be wrong. 

  • Some of the things you currently believe now are WRONG. 

  • Don’t fall prey to “resulting," don’t view outcomes as inevitable. 

  • Why you should start thinking in “expected value"

  • Are people born confident or is confidence made?

  • How can you deal with bad outcomes and maintain your confidence?

  • What’s the best way to manage your emotions and stay confident when things don’t work out?

  • Fooling yourself into being more confident can lead you to take risks that may not turn out well. 

  • What should you do if you’re stuck in under confidence and inaction?

  • Which tasks does greater confidence help you perform? Which tasks can greater confidence be a hindrance?

  • How do you have the unique and powerful combination of courage and humility that lets you act more boldly when it’s the right time and be more cautious when it’s the right time?

  • Powerful leaders are willing to admit ignorance and bring people to the table who will raise difficult questions.

  • The best general-purpose de-biasing tools

    • Consider the opposite of what you’re thinking

    • Consider thinking of the downside

    • Use a pre-mortem to understand why things have gone horribly awry

    • Capitalize on disagreement. Rather than avoiding or hiding disagreement, try to pull it out to the forefront. 

    • Ask yourself - what does the other person know that you don’t? What are the best reasons 

  • “Wisdom is the tolerance for cognitive dissonance"

  • How you can use a “premortem” analysis as a decision journal to understand the risks, crystallize your thinking, and get more clarity around the potential future outcomes - so you can make better decisions. 

  • Homework: Think about the future in terms of a range of probability distributions. 

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Don’s Website

  • Don’s LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter

Media

  • LA Times - “Op-Ed: Trump’s overconfidence has always been dangerous. With coronavirus, it’s deadly” by Don A. Moore

  • Berkeley Haas - Faculty Profile: Don A. Moore

    • Executive Education Profile

  • Open Science Framework (OSF) profile

  • Google Scholar Citations - Don A. Moore

  • ResearchGate Profile - Don Moore

    • “Avoiding the Pitfalls of Overconfidence while Benefiting from the Advantages of Confidence” by Alex Bryant Van Zant and Don Moore (2013)

  • HUMU - “Small habits with huge impact: Don A. Moore” by Cori Land (2019)

  • Psychology Today - Perfectly Confident Blog

  • Berkeley Haas Newsroom - “5 tips for calibrating your confidence from Prof. Don Moore’s new book” by Laura Counts

  • Journal Article - “Overconfidence over the lifespan” by Julia P. Prims and  Don A. Moore (13 pages, 2017)

  • Journal Article - “Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment *” by Jean-Pierre Benoît, Juan Dubra, and Don Moore (17 pages)

  • Forbes - “Donald Trump And The Irresistibility Of Overconfidence” by Don A. Moore (2017)

  • Wiki Article - Overconfidence effect

  • [Podcast] Rationally Speaking - RS 168 - Don Moore on "Overconfidence" (2016)

Videos

  • Berkeley Haas - Book Launch Party: "Perfectly Confident" by Don A. Moore

    • The Psychology of Confidence - Don Moore

    • Don Moore: Teaching Videos Playlist

  • California Management Review - Don Moore: Traditional Interviews Don’t Work

Books

  • Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely  by Don A. Moore

  • Perfectly Confident Book site

Misc

  • [Book] Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error by Kathryn Schulz

  • [SoS Episode] Making Smart Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts with Annie Duke

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the Internet with more than five million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this interview, we share how you can finally make decisions with perfect confidence, we tell you what to do when you’re stuck in inaction and lack confidence in your decisions and how to avoid being overconfident and making big mistakes with our guest, Dr. Don Moore. Austin will be joining me on this interview as well.

Are you a fan of the show and have you been enjoying the content that we put together for you? If you have, I would love it if you signed up for our e-mail list. We have some amazing content on there, along with a really great free course that we put a ton of time into called How To Create Time for What Matters Most In Your Life. If that sounds exciting and interesting and you want a bunch of other free goodies and giveaways along with that, just go to successpodcast.com. You can sign up right on the homepage. That’s successpodcast.com. Or if you’re on your phone right now, all you have to do is text the word smarter, that’s S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222.

In our previous episode, we were joined by Guy Kawasaki for a casual discussion, what we called a fireside chat, where we touched on life, business, success and many stories from the trenches of growing companies.

Now for our interview with Don.

[0:01:41.3] MB: Dr. Don Moore is a Professor at the Berkeley Haas School of Business, formerly at Carnegie Mellon. He's an expert in psychology and his main research focus is in overconfidence. Don's research has appeared in popular press outlets and academic journals, including The New Yorker, The Wall Street Journal, NPR and many other media outlets. He's the author of the recently released Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely and he teaches popular classes on managing organizations, negotiation and decision-making. Don, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:02:14.7] DM: Thanks, Matt. Great to be with you.

[0:02:16.7] MB: Well, I'm super excited to have you on the show today. Decision-making is one of my all-time favorite topics and one that's near and dear to my heart, so I can't wait to really dig into all this stuff.

[0:02:26.2] DM: Same here.

[0:02:27.0] MB: Well, I'd love to start out with one of the biggest questions that I get all the time from Science of Success listeners is around their level of confidence when they're making big, tough decisions in their lives. That to me is such an important issue, which it's so timely that you wrote this book, because to me that is just absolutely critical. I'd love to begin with this idea of how can we be confident in our decisions and what does it even mean to be confident?

[0:02:57.4] DM: The question of what confidence is is a profoundly important one. My research disentangle the approaches, different approaches to the study of confidence. One form of confidence is thinking that you're good. In particular, when psychologists have studied confidence, they have focused on overconfidence. Over estimation is thinking that you're better than you are, over-placement, the second variety, is the exaggerated belief which you’re better than others and over-precision, the third form, is the excessive faith that you know the truth, or that you have the right answer.

[0:03:29.5] MB: Got it. Those are the three different categories of overconfidence. Tell me a little bit more about each of those and distinguish between them.

[0:03:38.8] DM: Yeah. Overestimation manifests itself, perhaps most dramatically in examples like the planning fallacy, or the illusion of control, where it leads people to behave as if they will achieve more, that they'll get more done than they actually do. If this affects you like it affects me, it shows up in a to-do list with more commitments than there is time in the day. When I think about how much I'll get done in the future, somehow this bottomless optimism that “I'll have more time, more flexibility, I'll be able to tackle more projects in the future than I can now. Right now, I'm really busy, and so I've postponed the commitment and say I'll get it done later.”

Then of course later, I don't have any more time, and so I wind up overwhelmed. Hard experience has taught me to calibrate a little bit better to say no to more and make more realistic forecasts of what I'll be able to get done.

The second variety, over-placement is the tendency to think that you're better than others more so than you actually are. When I asked the students in my MBA class how honest they are relative to their classmates, the average percentile ranking relative to the rest of the class, which in reality of course has to be 50. If people give themselves percentile rank relative to the rest of the class, where a 100 means you're the very best, a 100% are worse than you, zero means at the very worst. There's nobody worse than you. Then the mean for the class has to be 50. The average on honesty is 70 or 80. Most of my students think they're more honest than their classmates.

The belief that you're better than others when you're not can get you into all sorts of trouble. When you survey entrepreneurs and ask how likely are you to succeed relative to your competitors, they report fabulous levels of over-placement. They think they're way more likely to succeed in this competitive market than are their rivals. Well, that might explain high rates of entrepreneurial entry, intense competition and then subsequent high rates of failure.

The third form, over-precision is the excessive faith that you have the right answer. This manifests itself in our reluctance to consider alternative points of view, our reluctance to consider advice from others, our neglect of alternative perspectives, which can have profound consequences. Studies in behavioral finance have offered it as an explanation for the high rate of trading in the market.

Lots of people go into the market without thinking who's on the other side of this trade and what do they know that I don't know? The failure to think through that can leave you overconfident in your estimation of the securities value and too willing to trade with other people have better information than you do.

[0:06:30.9] MB: Over-precision to me is so dangerous, not being willing to update your beliefs and consider that you might be wrong is such an insidious trap that you can fall into.

[0:06:44.3] DM: Amen. It is the variety of overconfidence that is actually most persistent. My research has identified circumstances in which people under-place themselves and underestimate themselves. The impostor syndrome is all about the erroneous belief that I don't have what it takes. On the other hand, research has identified very few instances of under-precision. It hardly ever happens that people are less sure of anything than they should be.

[0:07:15.8] MB: If we have all of these contributing factors that can cause us to make worse decisions, how do you think about approaching decision-making from a different perspective and trying to figure out the right level of confidence?

[0:07:30.6] DM: That is the big question that my book attempts to tackle. How do you get perfectly calibrated in your confidence? How do you get perfect confidence? My book offers a number of different tools for doing that better. One is to think about uncertainty in probability distributions.

Too often, we’re tempted to try to predict the future as if we could know what we're going to happen. That's just not realistic. The future will always be uncertain to some degree. For most things, it makes sense to think of the future as a distribution of possible outcomes and thinking through what could happen and how likely each one is will make you much better at being able to make wise decisions anticipating that uncertain future. Sometimes you'll wind up in situations with others who have different views from you, who you'll be tempted to argue with.

I recommend asking instead, want to bet, invite the other person to put some stakes on what they say they think is going to happen and listen to the arguments that they make behind the logic of that bet. What do they know that you don't know and how should you revise your beliefs, so that they're closer to the truth? Are your beliefs strong enough and certain enough that you're willing to put down some money to put real stakes on your belief? Well, that discipline is very useful for helping you calibrate your confidence.

[0:09:05.3] MB: When you say calibrate your confidence, to me one of the most interesting things and I loved part of the book where you had these exercises, where you asked people to estimate what is the probability of dying from an injury, for example, out of the total probabilities of different things that might kill you and the other various statistics that you had in there. I thought it was so, so compelling to think about really forcing yourself to make some of those estimations, because a lot of times what you realize or don't realize is that there's so many different ways that you can be wrong and you think, “Oh, yeah. I'm right.”

[0:09:43.0] DM: Yeah. There's a wonderful book that I read not long ago by a journalist named Kathryn Schulz. The title of a book is Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. She tells about how when people would ask what her book was about and she told them, they would say, “Oh, you should write about me. I'm wrong all the time.” To which she would say, “Oh, that's interesting. What are you wrong about right now?” They didn't have an answer to that. They couldn't have.

There's a challenge at the heart of that story and that is calibrating your confidence depends on appreciating all the ways in which you could be wrong. Some of those include unknown unknowns. Sometimes we’ll be wrong for reasons that we've just never imagined. That is one of the fundamental challenges in calibrating our confidence and the accuracy of our knowledge. There's some things that we just don't know. The prospect that the global economy could have been plunged into this dark depression as a result of a pandemic, well, my guess is most of the forecasts from smart economists a year ago did not put the probability on that outcome very high and they will look recklessly overconfident as a result.

[0:11:00.7] MB: That's such a powerful question. What are you wrong about right now? Because it's easy in hindsight to say, “I was wrong about X, I was wrong about Y.” As soon as you bring it into the present, there's almost a physical resistance to – those biases immediately kick in. You say, “Well, I'm not wrong about anything right now.” In six months you look back and be like, “Wow. I was wrong about that. I was wrong about that. I was wrong about that.”

[0:11:22.7] DM: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that challenge underscores how easy it is to go through life, imagining that we're right about everything all the time. The things we believe, we believe them, because we believe them to be true, even while we acknowledge, “Oh, man. There's all that stuff that I used to be wrong about. Well, thank goodness. I don't believe that wrong stuff anymore.”

In there, there's a lesson. Some of the things you believe now are wrong. You should be appropriately humble about the possibility that a given belief might be one of those things that you don't believe so much down the road.

[0:11:57.9] MB: That comes back to what you said a second ago around thinking probabilistically. This is one of the biggest takeaways for me that I've spent years really internalizing it. I'm a poker player. It may have come from even lessons in poker back in the day when I started getting my butt kicked in that game. It's this idea that the future is not one thing. It's a distribution of potential outcomes all with different probabilities.

[0:12:23.4] DM: Exactly.

[0:12:24.6] MB: It's not natural to think that way, but once you do, you can really start to get more comfortable with a lot of ambiguity and the reality that there's all kinds of different things that could potentially happen.

[0:12:36.5] DM: Exactly. Yeah. Annie Duke lays out the logic of that thinking, growing directly out of her experience as a championship poker player in her book, Thinking in Bets, which I highly recommend. She walks through the logic of the acknowledgement that the future is a distribution of possible outcomes and the imperative to use that knowledge to make smart bets. Sometimes they'll turn out great, in expectation they will be wise, but that doesn't mean luck is always going to go your way and sometimes you'll place a smart bet it turns out badly. There, you have to stop yourself from engaging in the mistake that I'm sure you've learned about in your studies of poker and that is resulting, taking the outcome and imagining that somehow it was always inevitable.

No. The hindsight bias will fool you into thinking that way. Don't make that mistake. Remember how little you knew at the time that you were making the bet. If you made it sensibly betting on the expected values that you knew at the time, you don't have to feel bad for having made a mistake. You made the smart decision you could have at the time. You can feel sorry for yourself that you got unlucky, but you shouldn't feel stupid for having made a mistake.

[0:13:57.6] MB: Yeah, that's such a great point. We actually interviewed Annie on that whole topic as well. For listeners who want to dig in specifically around some of those lessons, we'll throw that in the show notes. The other piece of that that you talk about in your book that I thought was a great insight and it's something else that comes out of poker is this notion of thinking in expected value. Can you explain that concept for listeners who might not be familiar with it?

[0:14:18.5] DM: Yeah. It is such a powerful concept. My economics colleagues tell me that those who want to be more rational in their decision-making should make decisions that maximize expected value. To figure out something's expected value, you just take its value to you, whatever that is and multiply that by its probability. In my class when I make this point, I invite my students to play a game where I flip a coin and if it comes up heads, I give that person $20. If it comes up tails, they get nothing.

Well, how much would they be willing to play that game? When I opened up the auction, the bidding goes very quickly to $10 and then stops. Why? $10 is the expected value of that game. There's a 50% chance of 20 bucks and a 50% chance of zero. Thinking about future prospects as expected values, where there's some outcome that's a value to you and its probability is less than a 100%. You've got to discount that value by the probability. Multiplying the two gives you expected value.

[0:15:25.3] AF: I'm curious, Dr. Moore. Zooming out a little bit, are people born confident, or is that something that's instilled in them through life and their experiences with various people and various situations?

[0:15:38.2] DM: It's interesting question. There are lots of circumstances in which life pushes us toward the expression of confidence, but it's not the case that there are some people who are just more confident about everything all the time. What we observe is that there are powerful situational effects. There are some circumstances in which most people will be incorrect in assessing their confidence. Like my students who all think they're more honest than their classmates.

Then there are other circumstances in which we're all prone to under-confidence. If I ask those same students to put themselves on a percentile scale relative to their classmates in their juggling ability for instance, the mean will be well below the 50th percentile. They think they're below average in juggling. Those are circumstances in life when we're prone to falling victim to the imposter syndrome, where we erroneously believe we aren't good enough, or don't have what it takes, when in fact, it's hard for everyone.

[0:16:40.5] AF: What's up, everybody? This is Austin Fable, producer and co-host of the Science of Success. This episode of the Science of Success is brought to you by the mobile app Best Fiends. That's best friends, but without the R. Best Fiends is honestly one of the best mobile games I've ever played. If you're looking for a truly fun and engaging way to pass the time while enjoying a great story, some awesome visuals, Best Fiends is absolutely for you.

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[0:18:22.1] AF: It's interesting, because I think most people probably have the experience of dealing with someone who's way overconfident. Like for instance like, “Oh, yeah. I've got it. I'll jump on stage and talk to all these people and make it up there.” They're sweating and jumbly and don't really know what to say. Then there's the opposite, where someone might be very soft-spoken they might not really raise their hand, or be the first one to jump in. But when they do something, they go and they absolutely crush it. You're like, “Hey, come on now. Why didn't you tell me you were so good at this?” It's almost like a comfort with your ability that keeps you from having to be overconfident.

[0:18:55.3] DM: Yeah, you're highlighting the bigger risks on either side of the confidence error. To be overconfident, think, “Yeah, I got this one in the bag. Everybody loves me. I'm hilarious.” Then you get on stage and make a complete ass of yourself. On the other hand, being under-confident, being reluctant to step out on stage when you would have been brilliant is a loss of its own. Being overconfident will lead you to make errors of commission, where you take action that afterwards you think, “Oh, I wish I hadn't done that.” On the other hand, being under-confident leads you to make errors of omission, where you would have been successful if only you'd had the courage to give it a try.

My admonition that people should be well calibrated in their confidence is an invitation to nail that bull's eye, to figure out what you should undertake that you'll be successful at and what you are unlikely to be successful at and therefore, you shouldn't try. Now I make that encouragement in light of the advice that just gave about expected value, because the future is uncertain and sometimes you can't know whether you'll be successful. The difficulty there is in making smart bets, figuring out what's worth trying, even when there's a risk of failure.

Here I think of well-calibrated entrepreneurs who didn't delude themselves or their investors about the risks, but who still undertook a risky project because the potential upside was large enough. There's a great story about Jeff Bezos early on in Amazon's life when he told potential investors, “I think there's probably a 70% chance that you're going to lose any money you invest in Amazon. Don't give me money that you can't afford to lose.”

[0:20:45.1] AF: Yeah. Now looking back on that, that's such a crazy statement just given there, where Amazon is gone. It's like, can you imagine being that person who was like, “Well, I'll just not give this money, because I really don't think I could afford to lose it.” At the time, very well calibrated thing to say. Sticking with this notion of calibration, I was delighted to find out that you’re an Annie Duke fan. Obviously, Matt and I are. She was great to have on the show and we've had a number of probability and high stakes poker players on. One of the big things that we've touched on is being able to separate yourself from the outcome saying like, “Okay. I may have had all the proper inputs. I made all the right decisions.”

Especially in something like poker and such in life as well, you can't always be guaranteed an outcome. This can throw us out of calibration, right? We might think we're pretty confident and we're really well calibrated in an area, but then if we make what we deemed to be the right decision and then the outcome is bad, that can hurt our confidence and it can throw us out of calibration. How do we really work to A, remove ourselves from the outcome, but then also B, get recalibrated in the event that we've taken a hit?

[0:21:53.0] DM: Yeah. It's a great question, because some of these hits can really shake you and make you feel bad about yourself, make you worry that you're in a losing streak, or maybe you're not as good as you thought you were. Annie Duke's advice for poker players who are tilting is relevant here. If your emotions are overtaking you and you're overreacting to the last hand, take a break, step back, reflect again on the expected values that you know.

For poker players, you know the probabilities coming out of that deck. Go back to that and don't overreact to what happened in the last hand, just because you got unlucky. You had a really strong hand and it was unlikely, but there was another player at the table who had a hand that wound of beating yours. Well, don't start changing your whole strategy just because you got unlucky in the prior hand. Stick to this strategy that you know will pay off in the long term and come back to that rational, sensible, calibrated center.

That can be tough to do when you're overcome by emotions, when you're overcome by feelings of regret, or when you're feeling bad about yourself for having gotten unlucky on a bet that you had good reason to think would have turned out in your favor. Here's a real conflict between what psychologists call system 1 and system 2 thinking, where if your emotions overtake you, you can wind up doing things that aren't in your interest, when your subjective weighting of probabilities is really at odds with the true probabilities.

[0:23:35.5] AF: Yeah. I think being able to come back to that that middle ground and recalibrate by really taking a step back and in some cases, not doubling down is huge. I want to shift gears a little bit. This is something is a little hierarchy, but in your book you mentioned traditional self-help books and all these speakers, they tell us to be more confident, which can really end up being bad advice. Really at the Science of Success, we like to focus on evidence-based growth and we really reject a lot of the norm in self-help, which is a lot of things aren't scientific, a lot of things aren't really based in studies.

One of my favorite examples it's like, if someone tells you to rub honey all over your stomach and run naked through Times Square, your anxiety will go away. If you do it, technically, problem solved, as long as you believe it and you get through it. It's a little more dangerous in the case of telling someone to be more confident, because there's just so many more things you can impact in ways that that can go out in your life and really affect things you're doing and things that – and people you're interacting with the wrong way as well. This is more of a tangible bad piece of advice, more so than a lot of what we see and for lack of a better term, woo-woo personal development space.

[0:24:52.2] DM: Amen. I think you have highlighted a profoundly important problem. It's simply fooling yourself into being more confident, if it's not backed by substance can lead you to take risks that are unlikely to turn out well. I mean, I think it's easy to understand how people could make that mistake. In day-to-day life, we observe confidence and success go hand in hand so often, right? It is the confident political candidates who are more likely to win, confident athletes more likely to be victorious, more confident cancer patients live longer.

In real life, we don't have exogenous manipulations of confidence. The possibility that both confidence and success arise from the same underlying cause that is actual ability or circumstance suggest, maybe fooling yourself into being more confident isn't actually going to help. What you need is an experiment. If the question is should you fool yourself into being more confident, will that help you perform? Well, what you'd like to know to answer that question is an experiment where you have a manipulation of confidence that doesn't arise from actual ability. Then observe whether that change to confidence affect performance. I ran a few studies with Elizabeth Tenney and Jennifer Logg here at UC Berkeley, where we tried to do exactly that.

We started out by asking people in what sorts of tasks do you think greater confidence will help you perform? Then we took what they told us and then run some experiments testing that idea. People told us, they thought that confidence would help perform better on a math test. We did that. We formulated a math test and gave it to a whole bunch of people. Some of whom we had induced to be confident by telling them, “You're going to do great at this.” We gave them a pretest and then told them, “You did fabulously on that. Based on what we know about you, you should expect to do very well on the math test that's coming up.”

Other people were induced to feel less confident. We said, “Yeah, not so much. You're probably going to have a hard time on this test coming up.” Then we could observe in the actual outcomes how that manipulation affected what happened. It doubt that our manipulation of confidence had no effect on their actual performance on the math test that came up later. This despite the fact that they expected to have different outcomes based on the manipulation. I mean, we told them to expect different things, so that's not a surprise.

What may be more interesting is that there is a separate group of observers who we gave the whole scenario to. We said, okay, we put together this math test, we've got a whole bunch of people to take it. Before they did, we led them to expect that they were going to perform well or not.

Now this manipulation had nothing to do with their actual abilities or their performance on the pre-test. How much do you think that manipulation affected their actual performance on the math test? By the way, we’ll pay you more if you're accurate in predicting the outcome of the experiment.

[0:28:01.1] AF: Ooh. Stakes are high.

[0:28:03.0] DM: Uh-huh. Those observers were ready to bet on those in the high confidence condition. By a wide margin, they expected them to actually perform better on the math test. In reality, we found no difference. We thought, maybe the math test is weird. We didn't give them the chance to study, or prepare. Either you understood the math problem or you didn't, and so maybe there wasn't a role for persistence.

We tried other things. We tried trivia tests. We tried tests of physical endurance. We tried tests of athletic performance. We tried boring vigilance tasks and none of these tasks could we find that our manipulation of confidence actually mattered for performance. But in each one, we had the observers ready to bet on the high-confluence people performing better.

[0:28:51.8] AF: Such an incredible story and what a study as well. I think in my own personal life even, I follow a little bit of boxing and UFC and everything. I got to admit, my even thinking this now, the one that comes out loudest and most confident is typically the one that I usually think is going to win. I think I'm probably wrong more than I am right.

I do want to ask you too, because this is something Matt and I can both relate to having been through the experience, but you do have a story at the beginning of your book about going to a Tony Robbins event. Can you share that story real quick?

[0:29:25.6] DM: Yeah. I have to say I'm a fan of Tony Robbins.

[0:29:28.2] AF: As are we. Yeah.

[0:29:29.4] DM: He does a lot of things well. He is inspiring in many, many wonderful ways. I got the chance to teach with Tony and then got an invitation from him to go to his Unleash the Power Within Weekend, which was wonderful and inspiring in many ways. As you know, one of the main events for his Unleash the Power Within Weekend is The Firewalk, where he persuades the assembled crowd, thousands of people, that they are going to walk across hot coals and come through unscathed.

It is daunting and scary. He whipped us up into such a lather of confident excitement that we charged eagerly out into the lot where these fiery walkways have been built from the burning embers of bonfires that Tony's crew had built hours before. We get out there in the dark and we see these glowing paths of fire, and then following his instructions, charged across them one at a time. It was dramatic and empowering.

I got carried away and failed to take the precautions that he had advised us to take. You got to do a few things to keep yourself safe during this. It is real danger. These coals are many hundreds, maybe thousands of degrees. You want to roll your pants up, so your pants don't catch fire. You want to keep moving. Then at the end, you want to get your feet down with water. There are members of the Los Angeles Fire Department there to spray our feet with water.

I didn't do that quite as well as I should have. I got the worst burns at the bottom of my feet. It was embarrassing and it was humiliating. Afterwards, I had to think, “Oh, my God. I'm so silly.” I got totally carried away. It was that feeling of embarrassment that highlighted one of the risks of overconfidence and helped motivate me to write the book.

[0:31:45.0] MB: Great story and definitely demonstrates how overconfidence can burn you quite literally. You said something a minute ago that I thought was really interesting as well, which is this distinction between this idea that there are some things we're overconfident about systematically and then there's some things that we’re under-confident about systematically. To me, that's a really important lesson that as humans, there are certain spheres we’re not just either more confident or less confident, there's really certain areas where we have a bias towards one or the other and they can both be problematic.

[0:32:21.7] DM: Yeah. Yeah. That's exactly right. Figuring out where you are making mistakes and seeking out better information, allows you to forecast the future with more accuracy, or calibrate your assessment of yourself. Man, that is extremely valuable. Businesses that are vulnerable to making these mistakes thought of investing business intelligence that helps them forecast for instance, how long it's going to take to complete the software development project, or how they really stack up against the competition.

[0:32:53.9] MB: That makes total sense. One of the other things that I thought was really interesting was from the book and something you've also touched on in this conversation as well is this idea that perfect confidence, or perfectly calibrated confidence I should say is not necessarily the same thing as being totally confident. It's really easy in our minds to get those things mixed up and think that they're synonymous, but in reality, the perfect amount of confidence is as you call it, almost a Goldilocks zone that's between overconfidence and under-confidence.

[0:33:30.2] DM: Amen. Yeah. You should believe the truth. There are lots of circumstances in which people will endorse optimism and the idea that they should believe the future is going to be a little bit better than it actually is. That's tough. Figuring out exactly how much better is a profound dilemma. Should you believe that you can jump 10 feet, when you can actually just jump 5 or 6? That'll get you into trouble if you're mountain-climbing, fooling yourself about how good you are, or how much you can accomplish runs real risks.

Now in my admonition to be well-calibrated in your confidence, I hope that your listeners don't hear that they should tone it down, that they should be less confident across the board. I don't think that's right. Each of us has vast untapped potential. There are all sorts of things that we could be successful at if only we have courage to try. There are enormous opportunities in front of us.

Scott Galloway talks about the fabulous opportunities that are opened up in economic downturns like this one and how businesses founded in recession there are actually more likely to be successful when business was founded during boom times. There are opportunities all around us and failure to appreciate those are a mistake, just as much as thinking that we can accomplish something that we can't and falling on our faces.

[0:35:03.7] MB: Yeah, that's a really great point. I've seen it again and again with people who are fans of the show, listeners of the show, that they're in many cases, trapped in under-confidence and inaction within certain areas of their lives. That's why I love these probabilistic thinking models and really studying the art of decision-making, because one of my favorite phrases that you used in the whole book was that “the importance is to strike this uncommon combination of courage and humility.” If you can just do that and you start to realize that at some times you're going to act really boldly when it's the right time and sometimes you're going to be really cautious, but it's very context dependent and being able to really rationally evaluate the situation and make the right decision given the information, given your own emotional state, etc., is such a critical tool to being an effective decision-maker and being ultimately a confident decision-maker.

[0:36:00.5] DM: Yeah. Yeah. Having the courage to be appropriately humble, I think is a challenge for every leader that's facilitated by being brave enough to seek out colleagues, employees and advisers who will tell you when you're screwing up. It is the insecure leader who just appoints sycophants who tell them that they're doing a great job. Yes, boss. Your jokes are all hilarious, boss.

If you want to figure out the truth, if you want good advice from smart people that allows you to capitalize on the wisdom of the crowd, you want to surround yourself with people who have the courage to tell you, “No. You need to improve on this and that, or you're making a mistake, or this plan that you've hatched that you're so attached to, uh-uh, that's more likely to turn out badly.”

[0:36:53.2] MB: Another quote that you mentioned in the book that dovetailed with that was this idea of the combination of being willing to admit your ignorance and to raise difficult questions. When you pair those two things together, you can really get towards what's actually true and start to formulate really powerful decisions.

[0:37:12.3] DM: Yeah. When I think about effective leaders, I think about people who are capable of drawing out those sorts of lessons from others, inviting criticism, inviting disagreement at meetings. Not charging in as the boss and imposing your perspective, or browbeating everybody at the meeting until they agree with you, instead, listening to the concerns and disagreements of those who are present. I love the Alfred Sloan story of the meeting at which he looked around at his board and said, “Gentlemen, I take it we're all in agreement on this.” They all nodded and he said, “I propose we adjourn for a while to develop some disagreement and understand what this topic really is all about.” That takes courageous leadership to actually develop disagreement and figure out if it can help you achieve any insight to make a better decision.

[0:38:07.0] MB: I want to segue into you touched on a few of these earlier, but I want to get a little bit deeper in some of the tools that we can use to be better decision makers and decision makers that have their confidence correctly calibrated.

[0:38:22.1] DM: Yeah. Tools that I advocate for helping people get better about calibrating our confidence include what psychologists have called the best general-purpose de-biasing tool that is considered the opposite. Ask yourself where you might be wrong, consider the downside of your plans. If you're working with others, you might consider implementing what Daniel Kahneman has called a pre-mortem, a meeting where you imagine a future scenario in which your plans have gone horribly awry and ask, what are the most likely reasons for failure? Is there thing you can do now to mitigate against them?

Other things you can do include getting serious about forecasting. Again, thinking through that probability distribution, thinking about the likelihood of various outcomes and figuring out how to place smart bets allow you to take advantage of your understanding of that uncertainty. Then also, capitalizing on disagreement.

Rather than avoiding disagreement or papering over it, or trying to argue other people out of beliefs that seem to disagree with yours, ask yourself what do they know that you don't? What leads them to their beliefs, especially when it comes to political or partisan conflicts, it's too easy to write off those who disagree with you as crazy, or evil somehow. I advise my students to resist that temptation, to simplify that way and assume the worst of the people who are on the other side of some argument or discussion.

Instead, think about what they know that you don't. What's brought them to that perspective? Are the real insights there that you ought to be incorporating into your view? Sometimes yes, and that is very valuable. It's possible that they're motivated by ulterior motives that really aren't all that helpful to you, but working hard to take their argument seriously and think about what the best reasons backing them up might be can help you sharpen your argument and revise your opinion, so that you get closer to the truth.

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[0:42:14.5] MB: I was a debater in high school. If my research was correct, I believe you also were.

[0:42:20.0] DM: Yeah. Yeah. Well, good sleuthing.

[0:42:22.3] MB: To me, one of the most powerful lessons from debating is that you have to debate both sides of an issue. You really learn to wrestle with all of the different arguments and not only see both sides, but understand that there's a lot of ambiguity, there's a lot of gray area and many issues are not as cut and dry as it would seem if you're just stuck on one side of the fence.

[0:42:46.8] DM: Yeah. Yeah. That's exactly right. Forcing yourself to argue both sides really provides useful insight into which arguments are strong and which arguments are flimsy, but just feel good, because you're so motivated to be allied with one side or the other.

[0:43:04.9] MB: Yeah, absolutely. Forcing yourself to do that, you really start to – you see the weak points, you see the strong points. This is tangentially related, but touches on the same idea which is another broader theme that I drew from the book, which is this notion – one of my all-time favorite quotes is that wisdom is the tolerance for cognitive dissonance. To me, to be confident in your decisions, to make confident decisions with the right amount of confidence, you really have to have a tolerance for ambiguity and an acceptance that things may be unknowable. The future may be uncertain. Sometimes you have to be able to weigh those risks and still take action, or still make a decision, even without certainty.

[0:43:47.2] DM: Yeah. That balance, it is evident in the decisions of successful investors. People like Warren Buffett talk about placing smart bets, not being able to be sure at the time that you're buying some stock, that it's definitely going to go up in value. But thinking through the uncertainties and using that information to plot the wisest course forward that you can.

[0:44:16.1] MB: I want to dig into one of the strategies you mentioned, because I think it's such an important tool and one that I personally utilize. Tell me a little bit more about what a pre-mortem is and how we can use that to improve our own decision-making.

[0:44:29.6] DM: Yeah. It's a term that comes from Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking Fast and Slow, obviously a leading light in my field in the study of decision-making. He talks about the value of anticipating why something could go wrong. We all know about post-mortems, where after disaster, you get it together and try to think about what went wrong and how you can avoid it in the future. That's very useful is also vulnerable to hindsight bias, or resulting. The pre-mortem is useful for thinking ahead about risks and doing what you can to reduce their potential impact to protect yourself from them insofar as you can.

The pre-mortem is useful for specifying the probability distribution and the expected value of different possible courses of action ahead of time. It's really useful for documenting the process of your decision. If this is a high-stakes decision, if you're going to invest millions or hundreds of millions in acquiring another company, is that the right strategy? Is it a wise course of action? Well, what's likely to happen? What do we think it's going to do to sales? What do you think it's going to do to morale? What do we think it’s going to do to our growth prospects?

Quantifying those outcomes ahead of time and thinking about the range of possibilities, could it double sales? Could it reduce sales? How likely are each of these things? That is very useful. Then documenting that process such that afterwards when you know the outcome, you can go back and check yourself. Ask, how good a job did we do thinking about this? Have we learned anything in the process that will help us make these sorts of decisions again? The pre-mortem anticipates future problems and tries to build robust strategies for addressing those likely futures.

[0:46:27.9] MB: Concretely, if someone was to create a pre-mortem, what would it actually look like in terms of what are you doing and how are you executing it?

[0:46:36.3] DM: Yeah. It usually begins with invitation to think about a future disaster. How could this turn out badly? If we are going to be conducting a post-mortem a year from now, what are the most likely reasons for that? Identifying and enumerating those reasons, then thinking about how bad they would be, considering what you could do to avoid them and robust strategies that are likely to work out in any event are very useful outcomes of a pre-mortem discussion.

Then committing that to writing in a way that formulates a plan that you can draw lessons from later on, that can also protect you from some of the more pernicious effects of the hindsight bias. An example that I give in the book has to do with risky product development. When Apple developed the iPhone, it was not obvious that it was going to be a homerun success. A number of people, including Steve Ballmer made fun of Apple's big investment in the iPhone. Of course, Apple was familiar with a similar investment in the Newton, a handheld digital assistant from just a few years prior that had been a market flop.

If you're developing some expensive new product, say it's going to cost you several million dollars to develop it, if its prospects for success are not guaranteed, how small are they? Even if the chances are low, just a 10% chance of a big success, the company should want to take that risk. If its expected value is positive, say a 10% chance of a 100 to 1 pay off on your investment, that definitely has a positive expected value. The company should want to take that risk every time.

The individual manager considering that risk has got to be scared. A 90% chance of failure. Well, I've only got one career and if the company's going to punish me, if this doesn't turn out well, I don't want to do that. The company should want to help facilitate those why is expected value bets, even when the probability of failure is high. Doing so depends crucially on what many have called rewarding well-intentioned failure.

If someone makes a smart bet with a positive expected value and they happen to get unlucky, don't fire them. Reward them and truly innovative companies like Apple and 3M have gotten good at celebrating well-intentioned failure. When employees make smart risky bets on which they get unlucky, not firing them, but rewarding them instead.

[0:49:27.8] MB: Yeah, that's really smart. You hinted at something earlier when you're talking about pre-mortems that's a really important side effect of not only specifically using a pre-mortem as a methodology, but really using any written decision analysis, whether it's a decision journal or whatever. Doing that commits your ideas, commits your thinking to writing and it lets you revisit it over time and figure out where were you right, where were you wrong and get some really good feedback in terms of the quality of your thinking and how you can improve it over time.

[0:50:00.5] DM: Yeah. Annie Duke invites us to ask on a bet. You can ask that of others when they make predictions that you think are off, or they make claims that you think you can disprove. You can also ask it of yourself. A decision journal as you described is a great way to do that, where you write down what you think is going to happen. You make a bet with yourself and then follow up later and use that to get better. Learn from that history and sharpen your judgment in order to get closer to perfect confidence.

[0:50:35.0] MB: For listeners who want to concretely implement something we've talked about today, it doesn't have to necessarily be what we just talked about, but really anything from the conversation, for someone who wants to improve their decision-making, who wants to have perfect confidence when they're making decisions, what would one action step be, or one item you would give them to begin that journey today?

[0:50:57.2] DM: One of the simplest and easiest to implement is encouraging yourself to think in probability distributions. An exercise that I've found in my studies again and again and again helps people get better calibrated about their uncertainties is to attach probabilities to them. If you're forecasting what product demand is going to be for some new product a year from now or next quarter, well, think about the range of possibilities. Is it going to be exactly what it was last quarter? How likely is it to go up by 10%, by 30%, by 50%?

Take the range of possibilities, break them up into a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes and then assign probabilities to those. That very exercise will help you calibrate your confidence a great deal. You will still be at risk of being too sure, being over precise in how you forecast that future, but it'll help you a lot. Then going back and tracking what happens afterward will help you improve your calibration yet further.

[0:52:03.0] MB: Great piece of advice and such an important component of being a better decision maker. Don, for listeners who want to find out more about you, about the book, about your work, what is the best place for them to do that online?

[0:52:15.7] DM: My website, perfectlyconfident.com. It's got links to blog entries and research papers. It's got an excerpt from the book and some of these exercises that people can go through online to help them calibrate their confidence. It also has links to where you can order the book.

[0:52:33.5] MB: Well Don, thank you so much for coming on the show, for sharing all this wisdom, research and some really great insights around how we can be more confident decision-makers.

[0:52:42.3] DM: Thanks for giving me the chance. It was a fun talk.

[0:52:44.8] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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Don't forget, if you want to get all the incredible information we talk about in the show, links transcripts, everything we discussed and much more, be sure to check out our show notes. You can get those at successpodcast.com, just hit the show notes button right at the top. 

Thanks again, and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.

June 18, 2020 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making
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Defeat FOMO & Make More Confident Decisions

May 07, 2020 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making

In this episode we share how you can be more confident when make the tough decisions in your life, discuss how to deal with FOMO and show you the key to ultimately achieving greatness with our guest Patrick McGinnis. 

Patrick J. McGinnis is a venture capitalist, writer, and speaker who has invested in leading companies around the world. He is the creator and host of the hit podcast FOMO Sapiens, with over 2 million downloads. Patrick coined the term “FOMO” short for “Fear of Missing Out”, which was added to the Oxford English Dictionary in 2013. He is also the creator of the term “FOBO” or “Fear of a Better Option” and has been featured as the creator of both terms in media outlets including the New York Times, The Financial Times, Boston Globe, Guardian, and many more! Patrick is also the author of the international bestseller The 10% Entrepreneur: Live Your Startup Dream Without Quitting Your Day Job and the newly released Fear of Missing Out: Practical Decision-Making in a World of Overwhelming Choice.

  • The FOMO man himself...The guy who coined the term Fear of Missing Out

  • Our earliest ancestors were very keyed in to what they needed.. but didn’t have.. FOMO is an evolutionary artifact that has come into prominence and been multiplied by social media. 

  • Technology has been a massive amplifier for FOMO

  • FOMO is an aspirational feeling.. there is something better out there that we could be having. 

  • We often fill uncertainty with our own projections… which may not match reality at all. 

  • The worst thing you can do is spend all of your life chasing things that you don’t want. 

  • FOMO has been studied in depth by clinical psychologists and has a severe negative impact on your mental health. 

  • Studies show that FOMO also negatively impacts your personal finances. 

  • FOMO negatively impacts your productivity by robbing your attention

  • The good thing about FOMO is that if we listen to our FOMO it may be a guide for things we want to do. 

  • FOBO… starting to become more well known now. “Fear of a Better Option"

  • In a desire to maximize you hold back and keep your options open for as long as possible in hopes that something better comes along. 

  • FOMO = being a follower

  • FOBO = being stuck in analysis paralysis 

  • The reason that entrepreneurial ventures often best large vested companies is because big companies are stuck with FOBO while as entrepreneurs are extremely decisive. 

  • You make thousands of decisions a day, and decision making is one of the best skills you can improve and master. 

  • We often waste HUGE amounts of time making minor or irrelevant decisions.

  • You often bring too much drama into making irrelevant or inconsequential decisions in your life. 

  • Which decisions should you actually pay attention to?

  • For many of the things that you get stuck on making decisions in your life, it ultimately doesn’t matter that much. 

  • Decisiveness is much more important than perfection. 

  • There is no perfect decision. 

  • You never heard a great leader being described as indecisive. Leadership requires you to be decisive. Leadership requires you to be a master decision-maker. 

  • If you’re too risk-averse to make bold decisions, you will never achieve greatness. 

  • If you wait too long to make a decision, your options may ultimately evaporate. 

  • The job of a CEO or entrepreneur is to take incomplete data sets and make hard decisions about what to do next. 

  • We very rarely go back and learn from our decision-making process. 

  • How do you make better BIG decisions in your life?

    • Write everything down. 

    • Make an investment memo on your decision. 

  • How to use Decision Journals to make better decisions

  • VC concept of Portfolio Review is a great way to see flaws in your investment decision making process.

  • Just because you made a good decision, it doesn’t mean you will be right.

  • What are the key strategies you can use to make better decisions, especially in the face of FOMO?

    • Gather the relevant information

    • See how it aligns with your goals and priorities

    • Socialize it with a few key people (3-5 people)

    • Take action. 

  • How do you overcome FOBO and analysis paralysis to make the best decisions possible?

  • It’s OK to want the best (FOBO) but FOBO can often incorrectly short-circuit and hijack your decision-making process

  • When you make a decision.. you have to let go of something else. 

  • Indecision is like a prison, the moment you can break out of that your world opens up. 

  • Homework: Be ruthless with yourself about not wasting time on no-stakes decisions. 

PORTFOLIO REVIEW STRATEGIES

  • Quarterly Cadence

  • Structure into an investment memo

  • Original financials vs actuals

  • Original Investment Thesis (how has it held up?)

  • Top 10 KPIs Quarterly

  • Sit down and talk through it with all the partners

    • Come up with action items

    • Put them into writing

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This week's episode of The Science of Success is brought to you by Best Fiends.

Best Fiends is a 5-Star rated mobile puzzle game with over 100 million downloads. I’m not someone who is traditionally a mobile game person but I have to say I’m a HUGE fan of this game and it’s a great way to challenge yourself when you’re on the go, waiting in line, or doing some relaxing.

The games developers and team are constantly updating with new themes and levels so the game never gets old or less challenging. This really keeps you on your toes in a fun way as you need to utilize different characters and strategies in order to succeed. What may have gotten you to a certain point in most cases won’t get you to the next.

You’re constantly engaging your brain with fun puzzles and collecting tons of unique characters. Trust me, with over 100 millions downloads this 5-star rated mobile puzzle game is a must play. So check it out go to the Apple app store or Google Play store on your phone and download best fiends today and start playing.

The game is great, their team is great so go check it out now and start playing today, I’ll see you on the leaderboard! 

Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Patrick’s Site and Wiki Page

  • Patrick’s LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter

  • FOMO Sapiens Podcast

  • FOMO Quiz

Media

  • Politico - “Is FOBO Paralyzing the Democratic Primary?” by Patrick McGinnis

  • LinkedIn - “Patrick J. McGinnis shares how to overcome FOMO and FOBO, and our next guest will help you find your voice” by Victoria Taylor

  • Article Directory on HuffPost, Medium,

  • HBR - HBR Presents: FOMO Sapiens with Patrick J. McGinnis

  • New York Times - “How to Beat F.O.B.O., From the Expert Who Coined It” by Tim Herrera

  • Business Insider - “A Wall Streeter turned venture capitalist uses a strategy from his investing career to make the personal decisions that stress him out most” by Andy Kiersz

  • Inc - “The Inventor of FOMO is Warning Leaders About a New, More Dangerous Threat” By Peter Kozodoy 

  • Crunchbase Profile - Patrick McGinnis

  • WeWork - “Can’t quit your day job? Author Patrick McGinnis says be a ‘10% entrepreneur’” by Patrick McGinnis

  • Boston Magazine - “The Home of FOMO” by Ben Schreckinger (2014)

  • [Podcast] So Money with Farnoosh Torabi - Patrick McGinnis "The 10% Entrepreneur" Author

  • [Podcast] 33voices – Ep 1151 | The 10% Entrepreneur — Patrick McGinnis

  • [Podcast] Art of Manliness - Podcast #251: Be an Entrepreneur Without Quitting Your Day Job

Videos

  • Patrick’s YouTube Channel

    • Andrew Yang’s Audacious Plan to Save Us from Automation

  • TED - How to make faster decisions | The Way We Work, a TED series

  • Talks at Google - Patrick McGinnis: "The 10% Entrepreneur" | Talks at Google

    • Patrick J. McGinnis: "The 10% Entrepreneur" | Talks at Google

  • London Real - Patrick McGinnis - The 10% Entrepreneur - PART 1/2 | London Real

    • 5 TYPES OF ENTREPRENEURS - Patrick McGinnis on London Real

  • Cathy Heller - How to Expand from 10% to 100% Entrepreneur - Patrick McGinnis | Don't Keep Your Day Job Podcast

Books

  • Fear of Missing Out: Practical Decision-Making in a World of Overwhelming Choice  by Patrick J. McGinnis (Release May 5th, 2020)

  • The 10% Entrepreneur: Live Your Startup Dream Without Quitting Your Day Job  by Patrick J. McGinnis

Misc

  • Bessemer VC Anti Portfolio 

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the Internet with more than five million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we share how you can be more confident when you make the tough decisions in your life, discuss how to deal with FOMO and show you the key to ultimately achieving greatness with our guest, Patrick McGinnis.

Are you a fan of the show and have you been enjoying the content that we put together for you? If you have, I would love it if you signed up for our e-mail list. We have some amazing content on there, along with a really great free course that we put a ton of time into called How To Create Time for What Matters Most In Your Life. If that sounds exciting and interesting and you want a bunch of other free goodies and giveaways along with that, just go to successpodcast.com. You can sign up right on the homepage. That’s successpodcast.com. Or if you’re on your phone right now, all you have to do is text the word smarter, that’s S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222.

In our previous episode, we shared how to decide what's really important in your life, how self-care can actually lead to massively increased productivity and how you can put away the guilt of not working hard enough with our previous guest, Denise Gosnell. Now, for our interview with Patrick.

Patrick J. McGuiness is a venture capitalist, writer and speaker who has invested in leading companies around the world. He's the creator and host of the hit podcast FOMO Sapiens. He coined the term, “FOMO,” which stands for fear of missing out, which was added to the Oxford English Dictionary in 2013. He's also the creator of the term FOBO, or fear of a better option and has been featured as the creator of both terms in media outlets, including the New York Times, the Financial Times, The Boston Globe and many more. Patrick is also the author of the international bestseller, The 10% Entrepreneur and the recently released Fear of Missing Out: Practical Decision-Making in a World of Overwhelming Choice.

[0:02:17.3] MB: Patrick, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:02:19.6] PM: Great to be here, Matt.

[0:02:20.8] MB: Well, we're super excited to have you on the show. Your background is so fascinating and you have a very unique claim to fame.

[0:02:28.8] PM: I do. Shall I say it? Or do you want to?

[0:02:30.7] MB: Lead the way.

[0:02:31.5] PM: All right. I am the person who invented the term FOMO, or fear of missing out.

[0:02:35.7] MB: Did you know at the time when you wrote that that it was going to become such a cultural phenomenon? I mean, really in many ways, defines in a major sense a huge piece of our culture today?

[0:02:45.5] PM: No. In fact, I came up with this idea and I wrote an article about it when I was at Harvard Business School. This was back in 2003. This was pre-social media. It was a really nichey problem that me and my friends lived with. Then thanks to the Internet and social media and all the other things that we now have in our lives. It has become an affliction that affects billions of people around the globe. It's incredible. I certainly didn't expect it.

[0:03:10.5] MB: It's so fascinating, because social media has in so many ways, really exacerbated this challenge. I'd love to hear your perspective on where we are from a cultural standpoint today in terms of FOMO and all of the overwhelming choices and everything that are circulating all around us.

[0:03:27.0] PM: The thing about FOMO is it is definitely enabled by technology, but it is also part of the human experience. If you think back to it, there are really three things that cause FOMO in people and maybe just helpful first to define what FOMO is. FOMO is and anxiety created by a belief that there's something better out there that we could be doing, often fed by social media, and it's also a desire to be part of the crowd, or to not be excluded from a social experience where others are taking part.

That's really what it is. If we think back, it is part of our DNA. Our earliest ancestors were keenly aware of what they needed, but maybe didn't have in order to survive in the Darwinistic survival of the fittest. Even the earliest humans felt feelings of FOMO, even though there was not a word for it at the time. It's also been part of our culture for a long time. The expression keeping up with the Joneses is a lot like FOMO and that's been around for over a 100 years. It actually comes from a comic strip that was run in the early 1900s about this family that lived next to the Joneses.

The Joneses were always doing something a little extra, and so this family felt pressure to keep up. That was the whole conceit of the comic strip. Ironically, the name of this family was the McGinnis family. When I heard that, I read that, actually there was a researcher at Boston University who wrote a history of FOMO. He tied that back to me and I couldn't believe it.

Then we have technology and that's where things changed. Even though we had expressions like keeping up with the Joneses, where FOMO became a necessary word to have in our lexicon, because all of a sudden, it wasn't just that you would compare yourself with your neighbor, it was that you compared yourself to people across the globe, or to people, or celebrities who you have no ability to keep up with. More than that because of social media, not only are we super connected, but also we are able to shape our lives in specific ways that are completely unrealistic.

We look at the way people portray their lives online and they're not at all connected to reality. When we look at them, we spend a lot of time idealizing them and injecting into that space our own expectations, and so you see that perfect picture with that perfect family and the life that looks so great to you. When you're sitting on your couch in your underwear, it's easy to feel inadequate. That's what's happened and it's become a big part of your society. You look for FOMO now, on Google there are 10 million hits, it's in the dictionary and it's become a word that's used not only by advertisers, but by people across our society to communicate the specific anxiety that many of us feel.

[0:06:02.9] MB: It's so crazy that in many senses, technology and really specifically, social media has basically just been a massive amplifier for FOMO and this phenomenon, which as you said in some sense is really an evolutionary artifact that's baked into the neurology of our brains.

[0:06:19.6] PM: Yeah, it is. You obviously can have FOMO without social media, of course as it is part of the human experience, but it is that proximity to comparison that reference anxiety that we provoke all of the time that has weaponized these feelings and made them something that there's interesting statistics out there that show that more than half of people feel FOMO when they're away from new sources, or from social media networks.

It's also the 24-hour news cycle and all these other things that are constantly bombarding us with information that we cannot possibly begin to process and that hijacks our feelings and uses them against us.

[0:06:59.0] MB: Tell me a little bit more about what happens when we experience FOMO. What is that like and why is it such a bad thing?

[0:07:06.7] PM: Yeah. We can talk about the good parts of FOMO, because I don't want to be totally negative. Just with the bad stuff, so FOMO is basically as I defined earlier, it's this anxiety that we feel when we [inaudible 0:07:15.4] and others and it's also this desire to be part of the herd. In one sense, FOMO is an aspirational feeling. It's the idea that there is something better out there that we could be having. As human beings, we naturally want to have the best.

There is this perception that, “Oh, my goodness. If I were just doing this or that, my life would be better.” The reality is we don't know if that's true, because we can't know if it's true. There is definitely an information asymmetry that's at play when you're seeing something out there and you say, “Oh, that looks so great.” If you could actually jump through the screen and see if it were actually good, then you would know and you could actually have authentic feelings. Unfortunately, because of information asymmetry, we can't know if those things are as truly good as they seem from the outside, right? That's the first part.

One of the big problems there, of course is the fact that because there is not clear information, we spend a lot of time inventing things and filling the uncertainty with our own projections, right? Second is this herd element. It's the idea that other people are doing something and I don't want to be left out. That is really at the end of the day if you think about it, it reminds me a lot of being a kid, or in high school when you're a follower. When you are worried about what the herd is doing and you want to keep up with the crowd, you are unfortunately not doing things that are actually authentic to you.

It's the classic example of – I remember when I was growing up, I wanted to buy a pair of Air Jordans, because everybody had Air Jordans. In fact, I bought them. My mom, I convinced her, bought the Air Jordans. Then I got them home and they were not comfortable and I didn't like high tops and I never wore them.

When you have FOMO, not only are you aspiring to things that you may not even like, but you're aspiring to the dreams of other people. The worst thing that you can do in your life is spend all of your time fixated on getting, or achieving something that isn't even actually the thing you truly want. That's what happens when you have FOMO. That's really bad. It leads to three major outcomes. The first is that it can affect your mental health. FOMO has been studied in depth by clinical psychologists and it's shown to provoke feelings of inferiority and stress and just a lesson overall mood and it just creates a lot of pressure on people that doesn't feel good.

It's really shocking how much ink has been spilled in the psychology world on how FOMO affects our mental health. The second is it affects your finances. There have been incredible studies out there by for example, Charles Schwab, that show that people spend money because of their FOMOs, money that they don't have in order to keep up with other people.

The third is productivity. If you spend more and more time focusing on other people and on social networks and really immersed in this world of comparison, it takes time away from your normal life. That's part of the reason why we so much time on our phones. Believe me, I look at my phone and I ask myself, how is it possible I spent four hours on my phone today? Then I look at it and it can be things like social media that cause us to do those things. Those are the bad things about FOMO.

The good thing about FOMO and this can be harnessed and used for good is that if we listen to our FOMO, it may be suggesting to us things that we wish we could do. Say you hear about your friend who started an entrepreneurial venture and you think to yourself, “Man, I'm going to the office every day, punching the clock. I really wish I could be an entrepreneur. I really wish I had an idea for a startup.” That actually even though it is FOMO, may actually prompt you to think about doing something entrepreneurial. It can be very positive in terms of waking us up to latent interests that we might have.

[0:10:50.6] MB: Yeah, that's a great insight. It's important too to have that perspective that it probably is largely a negative phenomenon, but there are ways that you can harness it or listen to it and glean some positive insight. One of my favorite comments about negative emotions, it's a very similar idea which is that negative emotions are data, but not direction, right? You can listen to them, doesn't mean you have to do necessarily what they're telling you, but there's valuable information that you're getting from your FOMO in some sense.

[0:11:15.7] PM: Yeah. I spend a lot of time in the book talking about this. I call the response to this feeling, when you learn that there's something interesting to you, of course there's still information asymmetries. You may think, I really want to be an entrepreneur. If you've never been an entrepreneur, you don't know quite yet, even if you like it, right? You're just projecting again.

What I encourage people to do is to engage in those things part time and I call it going all in some of the time. My whole first book, The 10% Entrepreneur was about part-time entrepreneurship. You try it out, see if you like it. Fill in that information asymmetry with information. Then if you do like it and if you think it's promising, then go after it full time. It can be a great strategy. I love what you said about negative emotions, because it is true that it is data. If you look at it clinically and strip out some of the emotion, then you can actually benefit from it.

[0:12:02.4] MB: I want to bring in the other term that you've coined and explore that as well and how it relates to FOMO and how relates to our lives and how we make decisions. There's so many interesting things to unpack from that. Tell me a little bit about FOBO.

[0:12:16.0] PM: All right. FOMO and FOBO were invented at the same time on the same day. They were put in the same article that I wrote back in school in 2004. While FOMO went on and became a word celebrity and is in the dictionary today and the article was called McGinnis’s Two FOs social theory at HBS.

The other FO of the two FOs, FOBO never really got famous. It's getting its day now and it's been written about in different magazines, like the New York Times and it's been in Politico. It's getting its moment in the sun now, but it really hasn't been prominent. Which is ironic, because as I think about FOMO and FOBO and FOBO stands for fear of a better option. FOBO is actually far worse for you.

FOBO is an anxiety that when you're making a decision and you have acceptable options before you, that there might be another option you haven't found yet. Therefore in the desire to maximize, you hold back and keep your options open for as long as possible in hopes that something better comes along. It is a very interesting form of risk aversion. Some people would say, “Well, that sounds optimistic.” You're looking forward to something better coming along, so you're waiting for that to show up on your doorstep. I see that as risk aversion, because it is actually the unwillingness to settle for less than perfect. As a result, never actually settling for anything at all. That's what happens when you have FOBO.

If you think about FOMO as being a follower, FOBO is doing nothing. It is being stuck in analysis paralysis and therefore, being unable to do anything. The reason why I think it's far worse than FOMO is that as I just mentioned with FOMO, listen, FOMO affects you and it has clear effects, but there is also a potential upside to your FOMO if you can learn to manage it.

FOBO on the other hand doesn't just affect you. It affects the people around you and there's nothing good that can come of it. I like to think of FOMO like drinking wine. A little wine never hurt anybody if done in moderation. In fact, maybe you loosen up and try something new. FOBO is like smoking cigarettes. Nothing good for you, nothing good for the people around you. All it does is cause problems.

[0:14:23.9] MB: It's really interesting to re-examine, or classify FOBO as risk aversion, because that [inaudible 0:14:29.7] in a light where you can really start to see the downstream effects of it, which is essentially that you stop taking risk, you stop taking action and your decision-making gets paralyzed.

[0:14:40.0] PM: Yeah. Think about this paradigm. I invest in companies. I'm an entrepreneur. I know that you are as well and many of the people listening to the show are entrepreneurs. If you think about how an entrepreneurial venture would operate, if it were riddled with FOBO, you could never make progress.

In fact, the reason why entrepreneurial ventures oftentimes are so successful and why they are able to kill off large companies is because entrepreneurial ventures are decisive and large companies are stuck with FOBO. There's a great example that I think shows this and that's the example of Audi. Audi decided in 2009 that it wanted to build an electric car. Then because of FOBO, procrastinated and changed its mind and Bob in accounting got involved and Sheila in marketing got involved and all of these things happen. It took them over 10 years to come out with an electric car.

Meanwhile, you have a pure-play startup, Tesla, Elon Musk. We can definitely all agree that the man does not have FOBO. He builds that company. He's got a product in market within a couple of years and now even though the number of units sold is far lower when you compare Tesla to Audi, Tesla is worth a lot more and is a much more valuable company. Why? Because startups are decisive and they take advantage of the indecision of large, stable companies.

[0:16:02.6] MB: We're getting into one of my all-time favorite topics and really one of the main reasons I even started this podcast years ago was because I was so interested in decision-making. You even touched on that to some degree. Selfishly, I use this show I mean, we share all kinds of really interesting ideas and conclusions and everything but selfishly I take everything and apply it to the business world and reap the benefits of that.

Decision-making to me has always been one of the most important and high-value skill sets that you can cultivate. It's so interesting to me to see in today's world, especially with things like FOBO that there's so many people and I get e-mails all the time from podcast listeners who in the same place, they don't know how to make a decision, they don't know how to be decisive, they're stuck, they feel they don't have any confidence, they can't choose between the myriad of options in front of them. How do you start to pare down this world of overwhelming choice and the trap of over analysis and really start to hone that into better decision-making?

[0:16:59.6] PM: This is something that I have spent a lot of time thinking about. I know you too. Decision-making. I mean, we make thousands of decisions a day, right? It's something that we all need to learn how to do. In fact, many of us think we're very good at it, right? I think in general, we all feel like, “Okay. I know how to make decisions.” When we get into a time of crisis, that's when our flaws are exposed. We see that with leaders around the world, whether it's Brexit and the indecision of the British government, or it's the response to the coronavirus and who move quickly and who didn't. Who had the FOBO and who didn't? All of these things get exposed.

What's interesting is also the thing about is that many of us waste a lot of time in our daily lives on things that don't really matter and we are mired in decisions on things that suck up our time, but don't give us much of a benefit return. First of all, I would say that then the first thing you have to do as you think about making better decisions is realize that many of us spend time on decisions. We waste our time on decisions that aren't important. When we do that, we then give ourselves less time and energy to focus on the things that really matter.

That right there is something that I learned way back in college. In the book, I talk about decision-making and I give you strategies to deal with FOMO and FOBO and they're different for when it comes to major decisions. Major decisions are have their specific strategies for each one. When it's for minor decisions, what I call low-stakes and no stakes decisions, they both have the same solution. Because when it comes to unimportant decisions, you make most of your unimportant decisions, or minor low-stakes, no-stakes decisions in a day without really thinking about it. It's completely reflexive.

When you spend a lot of time more than a couple of minutes or seconds, deciding which sweater you're going to wear, or what you're going to have for lunch, or whether you should go for a run or not, that is simply wasted time. The strategy that you can deal with for both FOMO and FOBO in that instance is the same. That is to basically outsource your decision-making.

When I was in college, I used to spend a tremendous amount of time worried about things that didn't matter. Should I go for a run or not? That would consume 20 minutes of my life. Should I go to the library now, or should I go in an hour? Well, by the time I've made my decision, it had been an hour. A friend of mine told me that whenever she had indecision, she would ask her watch. I thought to myself, “What could that possibly mean?”

She would say, “Listen. Basically, it's like, should I go for a run or not? Yes or no. I imagine the left side of my watch, the left half of my watch is yes, the right half of my watch is no. Then I looked down, I see where the second hand is and my decision is made for me.” You can do that in many different ways, whether it's even a rod and looking at the time on your cellphone, you could ask the magic 8-ball, whatever you want to do. The idea is taking decisions out of your own responsibility and outsourcing them, whether it is to something inanimate, or to a person, asking a person to make that decision is really helpful when it comes to these small decisions, because at the end of the day, you're not going to remember even making this decision in a couple of hours, or a couple of days and you are bringing all of this drama in the decision-making, and so you must take yourself out of the process in order to move forward with your day.

[0:20:05.0] MB: That's such a great way of looking at it, that you're bringing all this drama, I like that phrase, into what ultimately really are irrelevant or inconsequential decisions that have absolutely no impact on your life. It can end up wasting huge amounts of time.

[0:20:20.6] PM: Yeah, and it takes all your energy. If you spend all your time trying to decide which pair of socks to wear and then you walk into the office and you have to make a major strategic decision, you've already been running down the gas tank before you even get started. It's just not a good use of time. It is oftentimes, it's a self-deception trap that many of us use. It's like, “Oh, man. I have to make an important decision today. Why don't I waste the entire day doing other things, procrastinating, dealing with minor parts of my life, so that I can avoid dealing with what's really important? That's why it's important to get those off of your plate as quickly as possible.”

[0:20:56.6] MB: Tell me a little bit more about the concept of outsourcing these low-stake or no-stakes decisions and for somebody who might not really have clarity around when a decision fits into those categories, how do you think about categorizing stuff into either low-stakes or no stakes as well?

[0:21:11.2] PM: It's very simple. Some people I'm sure will read the book, or listen to our conversation and they'll say to me, “Well, how can you simplify it down to three levels?” I mean, I have low-stakes and no-stakes and medium-stakes and medium low-stakes and medium high-stakes. Absolutely, we could make it that complicated. By doing so, all we're doing is procrastinating and making our lives more complicated. The point here is that we want to simplify things as much as possible and that's really at the heart of the strategy I set forward in the book.

When it comes to low-stakes and no-stakes decisions, the way I think about it and it's really simple is number one, is this ephemeral? Will you have forgotten making this decision in a week and that's for no-stakes decisions, or a month for low-stakes decisions? If it's going to be something that impacts your life beyond a month, if you're going to in three months’ time look back and say, “Oh, my goodness. This was really important. I'm glad I spent tons of time on it,” then that is important and it has long-term effects and it requires more than being outsourced.

For many of the things that we get stuck on every day in our lives, that just won't happen. That's number one. Number two is does the decision have consequences in terms of money, time, or its impact on yourself and others? If not, then it's either low-stakes or no-stakes. Finally, can you abide by the decision no matter what the outcome?

For example, if you're trying to decide again, what to watch on Netflix, which is something that people spend tons of time on, even though it's not going to change your life. Think about it and ask yourself, “If I end up watching one series or another, is my life going to be ruined?” Of course, not. Therefore, you can easily and comfortably put it into the world of low-stakes and no-stakes. That's the way I divide them.

Now the no-stakes again is something that's truly, you're not going to remember in a day or two, or perhaps a week. Those are the ones I outsource to the watch. For anything a little bit more considered, something like for example, where I should go on vacation, or where should we go to dinner this weekend, or should I buy this desk, or that desk, or this TV or that TV? What I recommend is actually going and outsourcing to a person.

Letting somebody in your life help you with the answer, because chances are 99% of the time, you won't even need help. You'll have made the decision on your own. If you do need help, what that tells you is that you have options and they're so close in your mind that you're basically indifferent. Any of them could be fine. Any of them could work out, so therefore you want to find somebody to help you just make a decision already.

That could be asking a family member, or a colleague, or delegating to somebody, but it's the idea of just I don't make dinner plans anymore. When somebody says, “Where should we go?” I always just say, “I'm looking for something healthy this weekend, so let's do healthy food and then why don't you pick what you like?” You know what? I'm very happy with that outcome. I think as I've done this, I've realized that I feel more and more comfortable outsourcing and it's a great way to free up time in your life, in your schedule for the things that matter.

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[0:25:45.0] MB: Something that entrepreneurs I think really intuitively grasp that underpins this whole idea, one of the most important conclusions from all of this to me is this core idea that decisiveness is really much more important than perfection.

[0:26:00.9] PM: Most definitely. Because and we see this in entrepreneurial ventures all the time. One of my favorite books and I'm sure you read this and many of the listeners have read this is Eric Ries, The Lean Startup. That book is all about making tiny decisions, testing and then learning and then moving on to another thing. If you can't make even the smallest decisions and try something out, see if it works, how can you build a new venture?

There is no perfection. Asymmetry and information makes that guaranteed, but what there is is pushing the ball down the field towards the goal, being flexible and then pushing it forward again and again and again.

[0:26:37.7] MB: One of my favorite decision-making heuristics from the entrepreneurial world is a great letter to shareholders from Jeff Bezos, where he just talks about two heuristics that he uses to help make better decisions. One of them is is it reversible? Which oftentimes, people never ask themselves that, but how easy is it to reverse it? It's another way of looking at how bigger the consequences. The second heuristic is make decisions with 70% of the information that you think you need, instead of a 100%. To me, both of those are such great ways to get to that same conclusion, which is at the end of the day, it's better to make a half-decent decision and move on than it is to waste an hour, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, whatever it is depending on the stakes on a decision that has no impact on your life ultimately.

[0:27:19.2] PM: Absolutely. What's more, I love that example, because Bezos is such a decisive person, what's more is great leaders, you've never heard a great leader being described as indecisive. It's like, “Oh, I love Angela Merkel. She's so indecisive.” No, of course not. Leadership requires people to be decisive and to communicate a vision to the people around them. If you as a leader are waiting to have all the answers so that you can make a riskless decision, if you're that risk-averse, you will never achieve greatness. You won’t achieve mediocreness, because you won't get out of the gate. You’ll be stuck waiting for the perfect thing to come along and it's just not realistic.

The scary part is if you wait for too long, the options that you had in hand that you decided to wait before choosing, they may disappear, right? Nothing stays forever. That is another reason why it's important to be decisive, because if you wait too long, you may have no options at all.

[0:28:11.6] MB: That really brings to bear a fundamentally important conclusion that gets back to why decision-making is such a powerful skill to learn and master, which is that if you want to be a great leader, you basically have to be a great decision-maker.

[0:28:25.2] PM: Yes, you do. At the end of the day, if you think about what the job of the CEO is, or the job of an entrepreneur is, it's to take data, incomplete datasets, draw conclusions and plot a path forward. If you are not doing that, if you are the micromanager CEO who's worried about the catering, I mean, that's when you should be outsourcing, right? You were asked the lodge or something, because what happens a lot of times with leaders who fail is they spend their time and energy making the wrong decisions and that's because they are procrastinating and avoiding the hard decisions.

That FOBO scenario that I talk about with Audi, that was all about just not being able to make the hard decisions and it cost them a market. It's really important to not get mired in the indecision.

[0:29:10.6] MB: You brought up something earlier that I want to come back to that touches on the same subject, which is this idea that it's easy to delude yourself into thinking that you are a good decision-maker, but really in the bigger high stakes decision points, that is where the cracks really show up. If you haven't done the work and spent the time improving your ability to make decisions, that's when it really comes out. We've seen that, I mean, you had a couple great examples, but the coronavirus pandemic has really demonstrated that in many ways too.

[0:29:37.8] PM: It has. What tends to happen is when we make decisions, we very rarely go back and learn from our decision-making process. In the book and in the strategies that I lay out in how to make better big decisions, because big decisions you're clearly not going to outsource them, right? These need to be made by you, you need to take responsibility, these are things that impact your life, your well-being, the well-being of those around you, going forward in a meaningful way. When you do the big decisions, there's a whole process for that.

One important part of the process is to write everything down. I actually do this. Write everything down. Create a little memo. I think about it as a venture capitalist, which is what I do by day as an investment memo, because every decision you're making is like an investment in yourself and in your time and your energy going forward. Then keeping that written record and going back to it in the future periodically and assessing, “Okay, what did I get right? What did I get wrong? Where can I learn from what I did? What would I do differently? How would I gather better data to make this decision?”

Then as you go forward, it's one of these things we often don't think about is you can learn to make better decisions, not just by doing and reading and studying and learning from great people, but by looking at your own decision-making process and saying, “What worked and what didn't? What can I change going forward?”

[0:30:51.1] MB: Yeah. I don't know if you're familiar with the term decision journals, but it's essentially exactly what you're describing. It's a great exercise to really just write down what's the decision, why are you making it and even do a little bit of a pre-mortem, or a forecast of here's what I think's going to happen, here's what might go wrong. You do that for the major decisions in your life and it gives you an incredible record to go back and look at, “Wow, I'm systematically underweighting this risk, or I'm systematically too optimistic about this particular thing.” It's one of the few ways to access a little bit the power of the concept of deliberate practice and apply it in some way to getting feedback on your decision-making over time.

[0:31:25.9] PM: Yeah. I never heard of that term. I always think about from my own experiences, when you make investments as a venture capitalist, every year you do a portfolio review and you look at the company that you invested and you assess where it is today and you compare it versus your original investment thesis and your due diligence and your projections and you say, “Okay, what do we get right and wrong? What were the patterns we missed? What does this implication have for? What we do going forward with our capital?”

One thing that I really love is that some venture capital firms, they're very open about talking about their anti-portfolio and the anti-portfolio is basically the companies they didn't invest in, that they had the opportunity to. There's a VC fund called Bessemer, which very open about the fact that they could have invested in Facebook and Google and tells the story behind why they didn't invest and where they got it wrong and they celebrate it. I think that's a very healthy way to think about decision-making, because the other thing that we have to remember is just because you made a decision and you did your best, you did the process, it doesn't mean you're going to be right. It's just life. We never know what's going to happen. We can't control the outcomes of everything we do. Therefore, we should be comfortable knowing that we are going to make mistakes, but we should be open to learning from them.

[0:32:42.2] MB: Yeah. That's another hugely important conclusion and I'm a big poker player. That's one of the lessons that poker can teach you very rapidly is that the decision quality and outcome are not necessarily the same thing. You can make a great decision and get a bad outcome and you can make a terrible decision and get a great outcome. That makes it even more important to have some ability, or mechanism to go back and really review your decision-making in some way.

I'm curious. I want to dig into some of the other strategies that you recommend for making better high-stakes decisions when it really matters. What are the tools that you can use to make a better decision?

[0:33:19.7] PM: Yeah. Let's start with FOMO and then we'll move on to FOBO. Yes, when you get to a major decision and it could be something, let's take jabs, okay? I think all of us have been through this before, especially we can all understand. You are working in a job and all of a sudden, you feel this FOMO, “I want to be an entrepreneur.” Many of us have felt that. I certainly have. You ask yourself, “Maybe I should do this. Maybe I should start a company.” Okay, great. How do you know whether you should do that? How do you know whether this is simply FOMO, or if this is something that is meaningful and should be explored?

Well, when we think about the components of FOMO, there are really two things. Number one as I mentioned before, it's this aspiration, it's the idea that there's something better out there for you than what you're doing at the moment. The second is this idea of the herd that you see all these people making money and entrepreneurship is marketed in a way to us, that makes it look like it's the greatest thing ever, and that if you become an entrepreneur, all of a sudden you're going to be rich and happy and were going to make a movie about you and there's definitely this whole marketing element that provokes FOMO in people. That's been part of entrepreneurship as an industry for a long time now.

You need to attack each one of those separately for the aspirational bit. You need to ask yourself, okay, it looks great on the surface and I can have a lot of control and make a lot of money. Wow, I'd love to be an entrepreneur, but is that even real? That's the big thing you want to get at is you want to have a process to find out if all of the stuff that you think is so great, which by the way, you have no way of knowing because of information asymmetry. Are those things for real or not? You're going to ask yourself some very basic questions like, “Can I justify doing this, becoming an entrepreneur? Can I afford to do it? Can I do it without sacrificing other more important goals? Is there an ROI, a return on investment if I decide to do this? Is this even possible? Can we actually make this happen?”

If I'm dreaming of opening a restaurant but I know nothing about the industry, does that even make sense to me, or am I just daydreaming, right? Doing the work of gathering the information, doing your due diligence to strip away as much of the information asymmetry as possible is part one of making good decisions when you feel FOMO.

Part two is really about attacking the herd. Why do you want to do this? Is this is something you've always wanted to do and make sense in your life? Or are you doing it because you saw it on TV and it looked good for a minute, or because your friend did it? It sounds silly, but people do these things all the time. You really need to ask yourself, is this actually something I want to do, or am I just falling victim to wanting to do something I saw somebody else do? If you attack each of those components and gather data, write your memo, that will nine times out of 10 give you the answer to what you're trying to decide.

At that point, if you still haven't decided, I would encourage you to consult other people, show them what you've written, explain it to them and try to get their feedback, because other people can poke holes in your logic, if it isn't sound. Then if you're still indecisive and you're still stuck, it's at that point I say, go for it. Because at that point, you've done the work, you've gone through, you've attacked information asymmetry, you've figured out your true motivations, you've exposed it to the sunlight of day by getting other people's opinions.

If you're indifferent at that point, you've done enough work to know that it probably is a good idea. Life is about taking a little risk, so go for it. That's how you deal with FOMO when it comes to a big decision. If you still are afraid, then you could consider going in a part-time nature as we talked about earlier, because you can approach something in a risk-mitigated way and say, “I'm not going to throw caution to the wind and jump in full-time, but I'm going to find a way to explore this and at least further validate what I think is a good decision.” That's the FOMO.

Now on the FOBO, it's a different thing. FOBO as we talked about before is a combination of a belief that something better is going to come along and a desire to keep your options open for as long as possible, because the longer you wait, the more flexibility you have. Here, what's interesting is initially, I thought the problem with FOBO is that maximization is bad for you. In fact, it's okay to want the best.

The problem is that when we have FOBO, we make decisions incorrectly and it's our process that we need to change. Let's think back about should I choose this job or that? Say you've got three job opportunities on the table and you're trying to decide between them, right? This happens all the time. Somebody who's hired people, it’s like, you know who your candidate is basically delaying and delaying, because they're indecisive and they're waiting for something else to come along. That's not good for anybody.

How do you deal with that? Well, the thing is the problem that candidates have, or when they're making a decision between jobs isn't so much that they want the best thing, it's if they're not willing to let go of the thing they can have. When you make a decision and choose just one thing, you must let go of other things that you cannot have. People when they get stuck aren't willing to let go. That's what you've got to do. You've got to simply eliminate options from the pile and not return to them.

The process I recommend is basically pick a front-runner based on all this resource. You're going to do the same due diligence and try to strip away the information asymmetry and learn as much as you can and that will eliminate some things naturally as you learn more about them, then you're going to write your memo and try to figure out the base elements of these things and then you're just going to pick one of them, the one that your gut tells you is the best. You're going to compare one by one the other options to this front-runner.

Each time you do that one-on-one comparison, you're going to choose the better of the two and eliminate permanently the lesser of the two. By doing that, you're cheating two things. First, you're choosing the better, so you feel good. It's like, okay, I'm getting the better of these options. Second, you're eliminating something forever. Therefore, you are not tempted to go back to it.

In doing so, you're just cleaning the clutter out of your life and that allows you to move forward and finally choose something. If you get stuck at the very end, again this nine times out of 10 will solve your problem. If you get stuck at the very end, then I encourage you to consult with a couple of people and I actually would consult with three to five people, odd number of people and actually just have them make the decision for you and if you need a tiebreaker, you've got one, because it's at this point, remember you have acceptable options. It's not that you have nothing to choose from. You have acceptable options, the problem is that you are so close between them. They are so similar that basically you're indifferent. Therefore, the problem here isn't that you don't have something to choose. The problem is that you can't choose and you need to actually get somebody else to do that work for you.

[0:39:51.6] MB: It comes back to something you said a minute ago that I thought was really insightful is this idea that to be a great leader, to be a successful entrepreneur, to achieve what you want in your life, you have to be willing to take risk. At some level, you can do the due diligence, you can do the homework, you can get as much information as possible, but ultimately even the root of the word decision itself is to cut something off. You have to be willing to take some level of risk to make those bold decisions, to really achieve anything meaningful in your life.

[0:40:23.8] PM: It's hard to close doors in order to – when you walk through one door, you have to leave the rest behind you. We don't want to mourn what we can't have, right? Because it's attractive to feel like you can keep all your options open and always go back. Of course if you do that, as I mentioned before, let's think about the decision-making around coronavirus. Did difficult decisions, right? If you procrastinate and wait and wait and wait until you take action, the problem itself can grow so big that suddenly, the things that you could have done before aren't even available to you anymore. That can happen in all aspects of your life and you need to move as quickly as you can, choose something acceptable in order to make sure that you still even have options later on.

[0:41:06.9] MB: Yeah. That's another really great point. The idea that it's almost an illusion that you think waiting may lead to better options, but it just as easily maybe more likely could lead to the evaporation of the options that you thought you had.

[0:41:18.7] PM: Definitely. Because part of it is environmental, like the example I just gave. If you're dealing with a fast-moving situation, every day your set of options may change. That's just part of reality. Even if you're not in a crisis situation, by delaying your decision-making, you really truly risk the danger of alienating people around you. For example, say you're pushing off employers before you make a decision, that's why people give exploding offers, because they don't want to deal with you.

Unfortunately, we have to come up with all these mechanisms to basically force people to make decisions. That's why companies will have a 15-minute flash sale, because they know that at the end of the day, nobody wants to decide on anything, so they have to create a sense of urgency to get people to do anything. That is part of the game and other people aren't going to tolerate your indecisiveness forever.

[0:42:07.6] MB: The flip side of this, or the upshot of this in many ways is that if you can train yourself to be a better decision-maker, it's a pretty rare skill set to be very decisive and willing to take risk and take action, and in a world where there's so much indecision, it becomes really valuable to be able to train yourself in that skill set.

[0:42:26.7] PM: Most definitely. I think we are drawn to leaders who are decisive and there are not that many of them out there. This is something that can be very valuable to you, not just in the corporate environment or in entrepreneurship, but in your personal life, just setting direction and moving quickly through things and giving the people around you a sense of security and the fact that things are getting done is very valuable in the family settings and with friends and everybody.

I mean, if you think about your friends, how much time do you spend trying to organize that group chat, or trying to organize the trip, or the dinner, right? How much time do we spend on those kinds of things these days? It's completely ridiculous. I do this all the time now. I'll say like, let's do this at this time. You have 10 minutes to say yes or no. If you don't respond, I assume you're not coming. Guess what? People show up. They respond.

[0:43:14.2] MB: I've been very fortunate and I don't know if it's a combination of spending so many years and so much time studying the topic of decision-making, or maybe some of it is just my innate disposition, but I think the more you study this, I've really started to internalize almost this checklist, or this framework of any decision in my life I run through in almost instantaneous speed, is this something that really matters? Is it important? Is it going to really matter which option I pick? After you train yourself in it, it becomes really easy to just say, “Oh, this is irrelevant. Do whatever you want. I don't care. I'm indifferent. Do it and let's move on.”

[0:43:47.1] PM: I'm glad to hear that. I feel like having written a book about decision-making, I thought I was fine, but I feel I'm a much stronger decision-maker than I was. What I realized in the process is that indecision is like prison. The minute that you can break out of that, you have freedom. It's very liberating to just say, “This isn't important. Just going to decide. I'm moving on to something else.”

[0:44:09.4] MB: For somebody who's been listening to our conversation and they want to take action in some way to be more decisive, to make better decisions, what would be one action item, or first step you would give them to begin down that journey?

[0:44:22.8] PM: The first thing I would do is be ruthless with yourself about not wasting time on no-stakes decisions. As you proceed through your day today, or when you wake up tomorrow and you're starting and you find one of those little no-stakes decisions as just doesn't matter, what t-shirt should I put on, which shoes should I wear, one of those things. Or what should I order? Should I have the fries, or the salad with my burger? Or whatever that is in your life, I want you to number one, call it out, recognize that it's FOBO. Number two, I want you to ask the watch, or ask the cellphone, or whatever it is an inanimate object you want to choose, but simply outsource it.

I guarantee, do it one time and it's one of these things that like, it sounds so silly. When I first heard this idea I was like, “Uh, really?” The amount of people who have gotten in touch with me to tell me how powerful that was in their lives was shocking to me. I know, because I use it four times a day. Try that. That is your first step. If you can start doing that and see the power of that, I'm convinced that you'll move on to some of the other concepts we've talked about as well.

[0:45:26.6] MB: Great strategy and really good recommendation. Patrick, for listeners who want to find the book, find out more about you and your work online, what is the best place for them to do that?

[0:45:36.9] PM: Yes. Well, the best place to go to find me is my website, which is patrickmcginnis.com. There, you can find a link to order the book. It's on Amazon, of course. Also, you can check out. I have a podcast called FOMO Sapiens, which is distributed by Harvard Business Review. You can find episodes there, or wherever you like to listen to podcasts. You can also find me on Twitter @PJMcGinnis. Instagram @PatrickJMcGinnis. On Facebook, it's Patrick J. McGinnis. I'm in all of those places. The best place to go to find all of that together is my website, patrickmcginnis.com.

[0:46:10.0] MB: Well, Patrick, thank you so much for coming on the show, for sharing all this wisdom, some really great insights into how we can overcome FOMO, FOBO and how we can make much better decisions.

[0:46:21.5] PM: Hey, thanks a lot Matt and best of luck.

[0:46:24.1] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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May 07, 2020 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making
Bob Moesta-03.png

Why People Do What They Do & What It Means For You with Bob Moesta

April 02, 2020 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making

In this episode, we discuss how to ask better questions, lessons from solving some of the world’s most interesting challenges, and why you need to think about the job to be done with our guest Bob Moesta. 

Bob Moesta is a founder, maker, innovator, speaker & now a professor. Pioneer of Jobs To Be Done Theory; Innovation & new venture expert on creating, developing & launching of new products & services. The co-founder and president of the ReWired Group, Moesta helps leaders and companies repeatedly innovate and reliably predict and drive lasting success. He is also the co-author of Choosing College: How to Make Better Learning Decisions Throughout Your Life. 

  • How do you go from not being able to read and write to becoming a thought leader and expert?

  • The power of asking questions.. asking the questions that people are afraid to ask

  • Working on bombers, missiles, consumer products, gum, pokemon and much more. 

  • How do you ask better questions? Going back to fundamental principles 

  • Most businesses know everything about their consumers.. except for WHY.. dig WAY past the surface layer

    • Get into social, emotional, and functional reasons of why people behave a certain way

    • See the FULL CONTEXT that people live in

    • Understand the outcomes that they are desiring 

  • Oftentimes irrational behavior becomes rational within the context they are in. 

  • What is value and what do people value?

  • After people buy something they 

  • Based on criminal and intelligence interrogation 

  • Nothing is random, just because someone didn’t plan to do it doesn’t mean it’s not caused. There’s no such thing as an impulse purchase, there was a TON of latent context that led to that purchase.

  • "Context creates value and contrast creates meaning."

  • Context adds as much value to the product as the product does. 

  • Where and when in space and time is often more important than the product itself. 

  • “The struggle is the seed of all innovation."

  • The inability can create a super ability. 

  • You have to listen to what people are saying and also HOW they say it. 

  • Context, Outcomes, Trade Offs

  • Questions create spaces in the brain for solutions to fall into 

  • Supply-side vs demand-side thinking

  • How do you filter signal from noise? How do you determine what causes people to make decisions?

    • Functional energy (saving time, money, etc) 

    • Emotional energy (make me feel less bad, make me feel good)

    • Social energy (what other people perceive about me)

  • What are the energies that driving someone to say “today is the day I need a new mattress” - there are an infinite number of descriptions but a finite number of causes 

  • There are multiple answers to the same question.

  • Consumers don’t know what they want. To ask them what they want in a product isn’t always helpful. They don’t know how to design a mattress, they don’t even know how to buy a mattress. 

  • How do you dig deeper into human behavior and see behind the language that people use 

    • Mirroring 

    • Think of it as a documentary... 

    • Focus on the sequence of events and what happened (not what they say they thought)

    • Passive Looking vs Active Looking

    • First Trial

    • Usage

  • Customer interviews are the method to extract that information. 

  • You have to tie feelings back into ACTIONs taken

  • Talk to people who’ve already made the decision.. not people who say they want to… understand their story and their journey.

  • What is PROGRESS and why is it so important to product design and sales?

    • Why am I doing something and what progress am I hoping for by doing it?

    • What progress are you hoping for when you...

      • Buy a new car

      • Move

      • Go on vacation

      • Buy a new house

      • Buy a mattress

    • Everything is a movie... what causes people to take ACTION?

      • Pulls..things that make you want to go 

      • Anxieties.. things that stop you

      • Habits... 

  • It’s almost never about money, it's about VALUE. 

  • Everything is CAUSED.. everything has a full context. 

    • The story of hammering a nail. 

  • There are 28,000 products in the grocery store... and you might buy 10 of them. 

  • Where does growth come from? Growth comes from where people want to make progress but they can’t. 

    • They don’t have access

    • They can’t figure it out. 

  • Why don’t they teach sales at the world’s top business schools?

  • Companies don’t think about CUSTOMERS when they think about sales.. they optimize for funnel and efficiency.. instead of thinking about how customers want to make progress. 

  • The concept of “Demand Side Sales”

    • First Thought

    • Passive Looking

    • Active Looking

    • Deciding (making trade-offs and setting expectations)

    • First Use (onboarding)

  • Customers and consumers have their own implicit systems for making progress. 

  • First thought...

    • Ask question

    • Give metric

    • Tell story

    • State the obvious 

  • Understand the BUYING PROCESS instead of the SELLING PROCESS. 

  • Homework: Interview a coworker, friend or loved one to get to the root cause of why they bought something. Take 30 minutes and dig into it. turn it into a documentary in your mind.. and see the motivations and factors in context.

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Bob’s Website

  • Bob’s LinkedIn and Twitter

Media

  • Forbes - “How To Increase Consumer Confidence In Higher Education” by Carol D'Amico

    • “Why Lazy Rivers Have Their Place On College Campuses—And Yet Still Might Just Be Lazy” by Michael Horn

  • The Hechinger Report - “OPINION: When the next step isn’t college” by Michael Horn and Bob Moesta

  • Inside Higher Ed - “A Not-So-Tidy Narrative” by Michael B. Horn and Bob Moesta

    • Author Discusses his Book ‘Choosing College’ By Scott Jaschik

  • Harvard Business Review - Article Directory

  • [Profile] Crunchbase - Bob Moesta 

  • EducationNext - “In Choosing, and Paying for, College, Choice Has Benefits” By Jason D. Delisle

    • “What Colleges Can Learn From Toyota” By Michael B. Horn and Bob Moesta

  • EdSurge - “How Choosing a College Is Like Buying a Milkshake” By Jeffrey R. Young

  • ECommerce GROWTH Blog - “Bob Moesta Video: People fall in love with the product, not the problem” By Alexandra Ionescu

  • [Podcast] Gartner Talent Angle - 98: Preparing the Workforce for the Future with Bob Moesta

  • [Podcast] A Sherpa’s Guide to Innovation - E52 Part 1: Bob Moesta — The Grad School Jobs to Be Done Interview

  • [Podcast] The Disruptive Voice - Choosing College: Bob Moesta and Michael Horn on Why We Hire Education

    • 33. Solving the Problem of Fit: Todd Rose and Bob Moesta

  • [Podcast] Getting2Alpha - Bob Moesta - Part 1: From nothing to something

  • [Podcast] Intercom Podcast - Bob Moesta on unpacking customer motivations

  • [Podcast] Brand Lab Series™ - Bob Moesta Talks Jobs to Be Done Theory and Demand-Side Innovation | Ep 86

Videos

  • Bob’s YouTube Channel

  • Stern Speakers - Understanding the Jobs to be Done

  • Product Collective - Jobs to be Done and More on Innovation | INDUSTRY: The Product Conference Europe 2018

    • Becoming a Master Innovator - INDUSTRY The Product Conference 2019

  • The Forum for Growth and Innovation - Current Events Through the Lens of Theory: Why did YOU Hire HBS?

  • Alan Harlam - Bob Moesta JTBD Webinar (Glean Network, Aug 2018)

  • 2 Cent Dad - Bob Moesta Full Episode

  • Michael Horn - Data Mislead with Bob Moesta

Books

  • Choosing College: How to Make Better Learning Decisions Throughout Your Life by Michael B. Horn and Bob Moesta 

  • The Jobs-to-be-Done Handbook: Practical techniques for improving your application of Jobs-to-be-Done by Chris Spiek and Bob Moesta

Misc

  • Jobs To Be Done SIte

  • Jobs To Be Done Radio

  • [Book] Competing Against Luck Story Innovation by Clayton M. Christensen, Karen Dillon, Taddy Hall, and David S. Duncan

  • [SoS Episode] Influence Anyone With Secret Lessons Learned From The World’s Top Hostage Negotiators with Former FBI Negotiator Chris Voss

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the Internet with more than five million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we discuss how to ask better questions, share lessons from solving some of the world's most interesting challenges and share with you why you need to think about the job to be done with our guest, Bob Moesta.

Are you a fan of the show and have you been enjoying the content that we put together for you? If you have, I would love it if you signed up for our e-mail list. We have some amazing content on there, along with a really great free course that we put a ton of time into called How To Create Time for What Matters Most In Your Life. If that sounds exciting and interesting and you want a bunch of other free goodies and giveaways along with that, just go to successpodcast.com. You can sign up right on the homepage. That’s successpodcast.com. Or if you’re on your phone right now, all you have to do is text the word smarter, that’s S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222.

In our previous episode, we uncovered the truth about networking, why most people do it wrong, how you can do it right and the key ingredient that's been missing in your networking efforts with our previous guest, Dr. Ivan Misner.

Now for our interview with Bob.

[0:01:34.4] MB: Bob Moesta is a founder, maker, innovator, speaker and now a professor, pioneer of jobs to be done – Sorry. Pioneer of jobs to be done theory, innovation and new venture expert on creating, developing and launching of new products and services, the Co-Founder and President of The ReWired Group, Bob helps leaders and companies repeatedly innovate and reliably predict and drive lasting success.

He's also the co-author of Choosing College: How to Make Better Learning Decisions Throughout Your Life.

Bob, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:02:08.2] BM: Matt, thanks for having me on, man. I'm excited.

[0:02:10.1] MB: Well, we're really excited to have you on the show today. You have worked on so many different products and industries and it's such a fascinating background. I'd love to hear a little bit about how many different products you've helped build and some of the diverse experiences that you've had.

[0:02:25.7] BM: Yeah. I'm from Detroit and it's one of those things where I think from the womb, I was an engineer. Meaning, I was taking things apart by the time I was three. By the time I was six, I figured out how to put it back together so I didn't get in trouble. I had three closed head brain injuries when I was a little kid and basically, I can't read and I can't write. I had to learn in very different ways. Everything to me was about tactically pulling things apart and putting them together.

What it allowed me to do is actually ask questions and have conversations. I've always been a curious kid. For the most part, I've been asking questions pretty much my whole life. I'm 55 now. I've been able to walk into situations and ask some of the basic questions that most people don't want to ask, or they're afraid to ask. I've always asked. To be honest, I've worked on things like the guidance system for the patriot missile. I've worked on the radar absorbing materials for the B-2 bomber and the Advanced Tactical Fighter. I worked on five gum flavors and I've worked on Pokemon Mac and Cheese and Basecamp. Pretty much, there isn't an industry I haven't worked in at this point in time. The cool part is I get pulled into where it's a very complicated problem and the approach that I bring to it helps clarify and get things back to basics.

[0:03:34.4] MB: I love that. Working on everything from bombers to Pokemon and –

[0:03:38.2] BM: Mac and cheese.

[0:03:39.6] MB: Yeah, that's hilarious. Let's start with even before getting into some of the meat of your work, which is so fascinating, let's start with the power of asking questions, that simple framework of asking the basic questions that people are afraid to ask. What does that really look like and how do we start to assess situations more effectively and ask better questions?

[0:03:58.4] BM: I was that little kid who asked a thousand questions and annoyed everybody. My mom basically had taught me a whole bunch of different tools because she knew that if I was labeled dyslexic in 1972, I would have gone a completely different route. She taught me ways in which to tackle my inability to basically then turn it into a super ability. I have all these little hacks that help me see things from a very different perspective.

It's the notion of asking questions and understanding how things work. What causes somebody to say, “Today's the day I'm going to buy a new mattress,” right? At some point in time, they might know who you are and they might know all the correlative details of how old you are and the average age and all this stuff, but what causes you to say, “Today's the day I'm going to buy a mattress”? Typically, what you'll find is most businesses will know everything about their consumer, except for why.

Part of this is to understand and dig way past what I call the cake layer of the reasons. There's this deeper underlying, what I call social, emotional and functional things that cause you to say, “Today's the day. I got to buy a mattress.” It's not one thing. It's a set of things.

Part of this is being able to actually see people's world, see the context that they live in, understand the outcomes they're desiring and be able to put that together into what I call the job to be done, which is people don't buy products. They hire them to make progress in their life. That's the underlying frame of how I ask all my questions.

What's really interesting is you look at a situation and you'll see somebody do something very irrational. What I found out is that the irrational becomes rational with context, meaning if I actually see something doing something irrational, I probably don't actually understand the situation they're in. Once I understand the situation they're in, I can actually then figure out why they did what they did. Part of this is being able to ask those kinds of questions.

[0:05:54.2] MB: I love the almost beginner's mind that you approach these questions with. This idea of something as simple as why does somebody buy a mattress? What causes them to actually walk into the mattress store? You're right. In today's world, we focus so much on all these data and analytics and consumer demographics and everything and yet, a lot of times these fundamentally, really simple but really in many cases, difficult to answer questions get left by the wayside.

[0:06:19.1] BM: Well, you talk to a lot of people who've been in products for a long time and they have all this data wrapped around it. We tend to measure what's easy to measure, but not what's meaningful to measure. This actually started with a quest to understand what is value and what do people value. You start to realize that after the purchase, people tell lies to themselves of why they bought something. When you actually interrogate them, so the method that I built is really based on criminal and intelligence interrogation and it really pieces together the dominos that have to fall in somebody's life to say, “Today's the day I want a new mattress, or today's the day I'm going to buy a house.”

It's this aspect that nothing is random. Just because somebody didn't plan to do it doesn't mean it's not caused, right? They'll say, “Oh, it's an impulse purchase.” I don't believe in impulse purchase. I believe that you didn't think you were going to buy something and you bought it, but you've been looking – My favorite is I interviewed somebody on a mattress and they're like, “Yeah, we were in Costco on a Saturday. I had no intention to buying a mattress. Next thing I know, I'm running outside, I got two kids with me and doing it.”

My next question was, “How long haven't you been able to sleep?” It's like, “Well, that's been about three years.” If you unpack the entire story, it's about literally, a very stressful job, not sleeping well, have some big things coming up, all of a sudden it's – and happens to be with his spouse basically going like, “We really should think about a mattress.” Finally, they say, “You know what? That's fine. Why don't we get a new mattress?” They were waiting for that one last domino of the spouse basically agreeing that they needed a new mattress.

The whole reasons why they did it is it was the fact that they – they hadn't been sleeping, that I had a lot of stuff going on. All that's part of their context that says, “Today's the day I'm going to buy a new mattress.” Most people try to put back to well, what's the single most important that – well, it was comfortable, right? It's not it at all.

[0:08:06.7] MB: It's so interesting and a vital point to underscore and I'd like to explore a little bit more is this idea that as you put up, there's no such thing as an impulse purchase because of the context; this one decision, this one data point. If you're a company, or business, or you're selling a product, you might only look at the world through that tiny little peephole, that tiny little sliver of data and yet, there's an entire life with all these social and emotional and behavioral influences all stacking into that one decision point. A lot of times, the full context is missing, or hidden, or not really understood.

[0:08:40.8] BM: Well, what's interesting is that somehow we got to where we want to actually understand the value of our product and we want to know it in absolute terms, your relative context. The thing is I always say, context creates value and contrast creates meaning. The way I always talk about it is like, “Do you like steak or do you like pizza?” Most people say, “I like both.” “Well, tell me about the last time you had pizza.” “Well, we were running late and the kids were hungry and we need to get home and we needed to get them into bed, so we went and got pizza.”

It’s like, “Great. Now if I put steak in that context, how good is a steak?” Not very good. I would say about the last time you have steak? “It's usually we're celebrating something, we have a big meal together, we're having wine, we’re having this –” How good would pizza fit in that? Not so good. You start to realize that context adds as much value to your product as the product does. Finding out where and when in space and time is actually as important, if not more important than just designing the best product.

[0:09:35.1] MB: Such a great insight. The example of steak versus pizza really crystallizes that, because it shows you how powerful context can be in each of those examples.

[0:09:45.0] BM: Yeah. One of the products I've worked on was Snickers. If you start to realize, people would think that Snickers and Milky Way compete with each other. They're both candy bars, they're both made with the same ingredients, one’s got peanuts, one doesn't. The reality is when you think about the last time you had a Snickers is typically you missed the last meal, your stomach is growling, you've got to do a bunch of work, you're trying to get back to yourself because that you're getting hungry and you're not performing the way you need to.

It competes with a coffee and a Red Bull and a sandwich, but nobody thinks of a Milky Way when they're in that situation. When you think of a Milky Way, it actually competes with ice cream and brownies and the glass of wine and a run of all things. You start to realize, as much as they're the same product, they actually don't compete with each other at all ever.

[0:10:25.9] MB: That's so true. I mean, on the surface they're almost the exact same thing and yet, they do have very different contextual lives.

[0:10:32.4] BM: Right. Snickers is one skew it. They have some others, they're always trying to grow it, but the reality is it's one skew and it's about three and a half billion dollars in sales.

[0:10:41.2] MB: That's incredible.

[0:10:42.6] BM: I don't really think of it as a candy bar. It's actually a food bar disguised as a candy bar.

[0:10:47.4] MB: That's amazing. Zooming out a little bit, how did you come to this realization that the context is so important and contributes, in some cases, more value than the product, or service and is such a rich piece of the tapestry?

[0:11:03.3] BM: When I was 18-years-old, I sat down next to – I thought it was somebody's grandfather. It happened to be a guy by the name of Dr. Deming, who was the gentleman who went to Japan in 1948 and helped rebuild Japan and then built the Toyota Production system. If you know Lean, you know Six Sigma, you know TQM, he's the father of all that.

He was 85 and I was 18 and I sat down next to him and I asked him 40 questions in 20 minutes and he went like, “Boy, you're a curious kid. How'd you like to be my intern?” I interned for him for three summers and I went to Japan and learned all these different methods around engineering and developing new products and the way that Toyota was doing it and then I worked for Ford Motor Company out of college.

To me, it's all really pushed me in terms of being able to realize that when I would ask people what they wanted and I built it, they’d go like, “Mm. No, that's not what I wanted.” I would be like, “Oh, my gosh. How do I figure this out?” Marketing would tell me all this information. Because I was actually dyslexic, I couldn't read any of the reports. I had to figure out my own version of a hack to go like, how would I do this?

I went and figured out how to go interview people about what they really wanted and why they wanted it and why they did what they did. I would actually come back with way more details around the trade-offs that people were willing to make, as opposed to, “Boy, I wanted to have great gas mileage and I wanted to be very fast and I wanted to be this and I wanted to be that.” Consumers make trade-offs all the time, and so I was able to figure that stuff out.

The way I was talking about this, marketing usually does a lot of research to help buy media. To describe something as fun and to advertise something is fun is very different than to engineer fun. I have to cause fun on a regular basis. How does that happen? That's very different than just knowing like, “Hey, we got to say fun in the advertising.”

I think of traditional market research as like gasoline going in a regular engine, but I need actually rocket fuel to go into the engine for innovation. That's where all of it the started was realizing that I needed different information at the right place, at the right time.

[0:13:05.5] MB: That's a great insight and it's amazing how your dyslexia created this prism of looking at it from a completely different angle that ultimately led to such an innovative approach to consumer behavior.

[0:13:17.6] BM: Yeah. I believe the struggling moment is the seed for all innovation. My struggling and most people would again, I think of dyslexia is one of the greatest gifts I ever got, because with that, I'll say inability, it actually created a super ability. The way my mom taught me to read was when I look at a paragraph, or I look at a page, the first thing I see is all the spaces between the words. She'd say, “All right, where is the longest space?” I'd see. She’s like, “Okay. Well, here's the big words. Now if you can see the big words, analyze just the five largest words in the paragraph and guess what you think the paragraph is about.” That's the way I learned to read.

I can see patterns and stuff. I not only listen to what people say, but how they say it. For example, “Boy, that was really good.” When they go down at the end, that means there's an exception to it, so the follow up question is like, “So what didn't you like?” Versus, “Boy, that was really good.” If they go up at the end, that usually means that they were satisfied. “Well, what did you love the most?” You start to realize you have to listen to not only what people say, but how they say it.

[0:14:15.9] MB: I want to come back to something you said a minute ago and then I want to dig deeper into how we peer into the context of people's lives. You made a point a minute ago and you resurfaced it as well, which is this idea that consumers often don't even understand their own motivations, their own behavior, their own reasoning. If you asked them in a lot of contexts, they may not even tell you and they may not even consciously realize the real reason behind why they did something.

[0:14:44.0] BM: Oh, yeah. A couple things around that; one is this notion that we go through our lives, like points in time. We don't actually think about how long it took us to figure out how to buy a mattress. We're just literally thinking about it and then it goes out of our head and then all of a sudden, we're somewhere else, or we didn't sleep well. It’s like, “God, we should do that mattress.” It's just stuff keeps popping into our head. We actually never connect the dots, because the rest of life gets in the way.

When you actually slow somebody down and figure out how did you actually buy a new mattress? They start to realize like, it was actually really complicated. It was not easy. I had to make a lot of trade-offs. It took me four years to get there. You start to realize that people just don't connect those dots. When you ask somebody in a survey after they bought the mattress, why did you buy the mattress? “Oh, it was because of the sale.”

Okay, but that's not the real reason why they did it. It's part of the reason maybe, but the reality is that there's underlying causal factors that they don't even remember or don't even understand. The domino is a great analogy, because a domino half its size can topple a domino that's twice its size. If I have 10 dominos in a line, I can have something that’s 1 inch that knocks over something that's 10 feet.

[0:15:59.9] MB: That shows you the power of maybe they're ascribing the change to that one little domino, but really it was all of these factors that have been stacking up in the broader context of their lives.

[0:16:08.7] BM: Exactly. The way we look about it is if I have to take one of those dominos out of the set, will this not happen? You start to realize there's not a hundred dominos, there's usually five, six, seven different dominos and it's literally they're pieced together on the combination of the context they're in and the outcome that they seek and the trade-offs they're willing to make. If you ask somebody about how they bought something or what they struggle with, you can actually start to understand how they make progress in their lives.

Framing the progress now actually gives us – the way Clay Christensen says it, is questions create spaces in the brain for solutions to fall into. That drove me to really get to what question does a consumer ask themselves to say like, “I need a new mattress”? Because it's not that. They don't start with the mattress. They start with something else in their lives. By the way, the greatest competitor to a new mattress is a bottle of scotch, exercise and Zequel.

[0:17:05.6] MB: That's really interesting. You start to see once you flip this framework on its head and start to see the bigger context of people's lives, those types of conclusions emerge, right? That you see the competitor is not the other mattress firm, or having more springs in your mattress or whatever, it's all of these comparable substitutes, or things that are really solving the bigger contextual problem in their lives.

[0:17:25.4] BM: One of the other things I wrap around this is what I call supply side and demand side thinking. Supply side is the mattress company's going, “We're a hybrid mattress with this density of foam and three different layers and we've got coils in.” Again, from the consumer side it's like, “What the hell does any of that mean?” The demand side is like, “We can help you sleep. If it doesn't work, return it.” That's the stuff they understand.

The best example is the cameras, where if you look at where Nikon and Canon and [inaudible 0:17:50.9], all the big cameras, they talk about F-stop and sensor size and lenses. Literally, as a parent of four, it was like, I just want to get a picture of my kid playing hockey. What camera is going to do that for me? I don't want to educate the crap out of myself. I just want to take some good pictures of my kid playing hockey. You start to realize there's this notion where we don't even speak the right language to consumers and we try to get them to learn our language.

[0:18:15.1] MB: Yeah, that's really interesting. When we're trying to translate, that language start to speak to the consumers, when you're starting to form that vocabulary, how do you think about creating order from chaos in the sense of if you have somebody's entire life stacking all of these hundreds of dominos and factors into place, how do you start to filter the signal from the noise and really figure out what are the key items that actually matter and which one should you pay attention to and which one shouldn't you?

[0:18:41.6] BM: One of my other mentors, his name was Dr. Genichi Taguchi. He basically taught me how to build a signal-to-noise ratio for anything. One of the things that was so interesting is that aspect of where's the intent behind it? We look at where is the energy that's driving somebody to actually make progress? There's three types; there's functional energy, which is more about saving time, saving money, making it easier, not having to think. There's all the mechanics of it, right?

There's the emotional energy, which is basically make me feel less bad, make me feel good, have me less anxious, help me relax. There's all those kinds of things about internal. Then there's the social energy of what other people perceive me, or how I want other people to think about me.

When you start to pull it back to what are the energies that are driving somebody to say, “Today's the day I need a new mattress,” there's a finite number of causes. There's an infinite number of descriptions. There's an infinite number of ways to characterize what happens, but the reality is there are only finite causes and it's not a hundred. Part of it is by going and talking to people and then what I say is abstracting it up to the intent behind it. You start to realize it’s like, when I'm very busy and I'm not sleeping well and I have a lot of stuff coming in the future that I need to perform on, that's part of that context that makes people say, “Today's the day I'm going to get a mattress.”

Now it's not just one, but there might be three or four different pathways. There's a guy named Todd Rose who wrote a book The End of Average. He's the one who talked about that there's not actually one answer, there's multiple answers to the same question. Part of it is to be able to understand what are the different pathways that people take, not to average everything. To me, that influenced me a lot as well. That notion of the signal-to-noise ratio, what are the underlying signals that are really causing people to make progress and that there isn't one answer, but there's actually sets of answers. How many different sets do we have?

[0:20:35.9] MB: It's a great insight. I like the categorizations of functional, emotional, social, those are the three big buckets that you start to filter these infinite answers into and really get behind what is the motivation, what's driving these decisions.

[0:20:50.6] BM: I think the other thing is to realize is that consumers don't know what they want. To ask consumers what they want in their product, like Deming would always say it's the producers responsibility to design the product. They might know the outcome they want. They don't know how to design a mattress. They actually don't even know how to buy a mattress. Part of this is to realize the reason why Casper is a billion dollar business at this point is because they've at least made it simplified to say like, “Tell me about what's going on. Tell me about the context and who is this mattress for? Or how do you sleep?” It's not the fact that are you hot or cold? It's do you stick your leg out at night?

It's these subtle little things that help you understand like, “Yeah, this is going to be the right mattress, because they know me because I stick my leg out at night. Am I hot? Sometimes I'm hot. Not always, you know what I mean?” Learning the questions and learning the intimacies of what the consumers really say and mean behind it. A lot of times they'll say, “Well, I was sweating.” “Oh, I know what that is.” It's like, “How do you know?” It's the part of this is you have to dig way deeper than what their language is.

[0:21:51.2] MB: How do you start to dig deeper?

[0:21:54.3] BM: There's a great book. I had started a book on the interview technique and there's some aspects around it that I still have, but there's a great book by Chris Voss. It's called Never Split the Difference. He is an FBI a negotiator. He literally walks through every single technique that I use in the method. One of them is mirroring. When somebody starts to tell me a story for example, I always say, “Well, let's think about as a documentary.” It's like, tell me about – “Well, my kid was doing this.” “Well what's your kid's first name?” “Jack.” “Okay. What did Jack think?” The moment that I actually move and put Jack in the story, it now becomes more vivid. They actually become more comfortable. They're actually going to tell you more details. What did Jack think about that? How did you respond to it?

I don't really care what they say they did. I want to know the sequence of events and what happened. Like any good crime, there's a timeline to this thing and there's a sequence of things and we talk about there's a first thought. There's something called passive-looking, there's something called active-looking and then there's basically deciding and making trade-offs where you lock in expectations. Then there's first trial and then usage. That's the whole aspect of matching basically, what their expectations were and delivering and doing the job.

The interview itself is the method by which we extract this information, but then by finding those dominos and where they sit and the forces in terms of pushes and goals and anxieties and habits and then the energies of functional, social and emotional, you can then start to actually codify these qualitative interviews to help you see patterns that you could not see before. That's how I always say by dyslexia, it was the greatest gift I ever had, because if I could read, I probably would have never come up with this.

[0:23:38.4] MB: It's so interesting. Chris Voss is a previous guest on the show, so we'll make sure to include that episode in the show notes.

[0:23:43.9] BM: Oh, yeah. He’s great. He's great. He's phenomenal.

[0:23:47.0] MB: Yeah, that was a fantastic conversation. He's a great guy. I loved the idea of thinking about it like a documentary and focusing on the sequence of events. You said something I want to make sure that I understand, which is focus on what actually happened, not what they say they thought about or not what they say they were feeling. Explain that a little bit more.

[0:24:05.6] BM: A lot of times people will say, “Well, I was angry.” Like, “Well, why were you angry? Give me an example of what did you do because you were angry.” If they were angry and they didn't do anything about it, then it really isn't probably relevant to the story, right? If it's frustrated and they did something, where in the timeline does the action fit that you did? Because ultimately, we have to actually see the actions that people take to get there. Part of this is there's a lot of times people will talk about how they feel, but it actually doesn't motivate them to make progress. The other thing is I don't talk to people who want to buy a house, for example, or who want to buy a mattress.

I only talk to people who bought a mattress, to understand the journey they had to go on and the trade-offs they had to make and the energy that caused them to do it. Because for every one person who made it, my belief is there's another hundred or a thousand or a million behind them that haven't figured it out yet. As you listen to these stories though, you get the design requirements of finding out where you over-engineer something and where you actually don't pay attention and where averages kill you. You actually figure out how to build products that are actually what I would say, it's a kick-ass half, not a half-ass whole.

[0:25:16.2] MB: Yeah, that's really interesting. This whole idea of only talking to people who've already made the decision, in interviewing people who have already gone through that journey, whatever the full context of that story is, as opposed to talking to people who say they're interested in buying a house, or buying a mattress or whatever. That's a really interesting insight.

[0:25:36.0] BM: The other part is if I talk to a wide range of people who have already bought, I actually can find the causes and then I can actually use it to help me design the sales process to help people sell. I can help you make progress on buying a new mattress. One of my favorites is a lot of times, people will create this question, create the space in the brain for the solution to fall into, but then they answer it. When you answer it, you actually fill the hole in where you should say is like, “So why can't you sleep at night?” Just leave it at that. Just let it go. Because that's the thing that's going to eat at them and go like, “God, why can't I sleep at night?” If you say, “Oh, you can't sleep at night, because it's your mattress.” It's like, “No, I don't need a mattress.”

[0:26:15.7] MB: Very interesting.

[0:26:16.5] BM: What I've done is I've actually taken this framework and I've said like, “Why do we not teach sales and why is sales seen as such a bad thing?” The one bad apple has spoiled the entire thing. If you talk about people who really helped you make progress and you say, “Oh, how was your salesperson?” They're like, “Oh, well they're not my salesperson. They're my concierge. Or no, they're my advisor.” You start to realize really good salespeople really just help people make progress.

If we can actually teach the sales organization and the marketing organization and the customer success organization to align against what's the progress we're trying to help people make and how do we work together, as opposed to compete against each other, you start to realize it's a completely different way in which to manage sales.

[0:27:01.2] MB: Before we dig into sales, tell me about the concept of progress. Because I know that's a critical component of the jobs to be done framework and you've mentioned a number of times, but I want to explain in richer detail what that means.

[0:27:13.1] BM: Progress to me is we are creatures of habit and we will continue to do what we did if it works for us. The moment that we decide that this isn't good enough, we then all of a sudden realize that why am I actually going to change something and what am I hoping for when I do it? That's why it's not jobs. It's jobs to be done. This notion is what progress are you hoping for when you buy a new car, when you actually move, when you go to college, when you go on vacation?

You start to realize at some point in time, it's a movement. Most people think about it as a snapshot. In my mind, everything is a movie. Part of it is to understand what's the progress I'm willing to make? In progress, there are pushes that make you say, “Today's the day.” There's polls, which are the things that you are aspiring for, or the outcomes that you seek. There's anxieties that go against it, which are things you're worried about. There's habits which are there things you love about the current way you're doing it.

Progress is being able to understand how do you see you making progress as a system and understanding the trade-offs you have to make in order to do that. I don't know if I made that much sense with that, but I tried.

[0:28:26.4] MB: Yeah. No, that's a great explanation. This whole idea of viewing it as a system of and this comes back almost – Yeah, the idea of the full context of their lives, right? There's all these forces. They’re getting pulled in some ways. They're scared of taking action in other ways. They've got their habits that are sticking them in certain types of behavior patterns. All of these things are interacting in different currents and energies. Then ultimately, they end up buying a new house, or buying a car, whatever that might be as a result of some shift, or some change, or some domino impacting the behavior of the entire system. It's not because the mattress had extra padding and new springs that are liquid cooled or whatever.

[0:29:05.9] BM: That's right. Well, then it becomes hiring and firing criteria. What was the hiring criteria? What were the things you were most worried about? What was that priority on it? Again, you didn't want to pay that much, but you're willing to pay that much because you thought this would get you what? When people say, “Oh, I don't have the money,” typically it's never about money. It's about their notion of value. They don't value what that is. Or you put so many features in it and I only need three of the 10 features. When I say, “Boy, it's just too expensive.” It's usually too expensive, because you actually put too much in it, not because they don't have the money.

[0:29:37.5] MB: That's great. Really interesting insight. It's almost never about the money.

[0:29:41.4] BM: The other thing I would say is that everything is cost. You don't randomly just pull something new into your life. In the grocery store, there's 28,000 new products a year in the grocery store and you might see 10 of them. I'm saying, you might buy 10 of them. You might see a few more. If you know what you're having for lunch you know and what lunch is going to be and you've always bought turkey, you're going to buy turkey, right? Why change it if it works?

The reality is when you say, “Well, I got mesquite this time. I wanted to mix it up.” Well, what was your intent? Did you want people to show that you cared? Because mixing it up is showing that I'm paying attention and then that I care. There's a causality there. It's not just random that somebody picks a mesquite this time and picks something else another time.

[0:30:19.8] MB: Yeah. This whole idea, everything has a cause. One of my favorite parables or stories is this idea of you look at a nail being hammered into a board. In order for that to happen, the entire universe has to exist, the chain of events from all the planets and everything, all the way to that person's parents and grandparents. That nail being hammered into that board, there's so much context behind that that it's essentially everything, right? It's pretty amazing when you really take any single instance of anything, there's so much richness behind it that you can potentially unpack.

[0:30:51.7] BM: Well, the bigger thing to me is where does growth come from? What you start to realize is growth comes from where people want to make progress, but they can't. They either can't figure it out, or they don't have access to it, or it's not to the quality level you want. I've worked with SNHU and Palo Blanc and basically as we started to look at this, it was like, how many people want to go back to school but can't?

He built a whole separate division of an online school and he went from 500 online students in basically 2010 to he has a 130,000 online students. He went from a 100 million to a billion as a not-for-profit school. He literally have the price of education by actually thinking about it and saying like, “How many people want to go back to school, but can't? Now, I'm going to actually make it easier for people.” He had to change all these different processes, like the application process. The typical application process for an 18-year-old is literally nine months. They do it in literally less than a week.

[0:31:50.8] MB: That's amazing.

[0:31:51.9] BM: Right? That's the whole aspect here of growth really comes from what we call the low-end of the market, the disruptors who basically walk in and say, how many people want to go to college but can't? Or want to go back to college and can't?

[0:32:04.0] MB: I want to bring this back to something you touched on a minute ago, which is this idea of sales and how you mentioned earlier and we talked about on the pre-show, sales is probably one of if not the most important business skills and yet, it's essentially not taught in school at all. If you look at the most famous business schools, there's no sales training going on there. In many ways, some people look down on it, or it's a dirty word, or whatever. I want to hear your thoughts about that.

[0:32:27.9] BM: One of the things that came out as I was developing products, the thing that I found and I've done seven startups. As I've done the startups, I realized the hardest thing for me to really learn was how to sell. When I went and tried to learn it through the traditional channels, it was like, hey, this makes no sense. I got to come up with features and benefits. I got a standard presentation. I got to come up with a demo and the demo is well, it's contextual. Like, “No, no, no. You just create one demo and show everybody everything and you just push it through the funnel.” There's this notion of the funnel.

The crazy part is you realize if they're teaching sales, it's like somebody from the law school comes over and teaches negotiation, somebody else from HR teaches structured, the Salesforce, but sales is glossed over. You start to realize selling, Daniel Pink said as, to sell is human. This is one of those things where people want to make progress. They got to actually help us understand what they want to do. To me after doing that, actually became an adjunct at Northwestern, in the Kellogg School. They have one sales professor. His name is Craig Wortmann and he's amazing. He actually runs the Kellogg Sales Institute. The reality is he had got in there when I started doing a lot of this research, but there was no sales professors.

You start to realize why is that? It turns out that there's no real theory behind sales. It's a bunch of techniques. It's seen as art. It's very hard to teach. It's almost like you're teaching theater class. Business school is more about spreadsheets and strict analysis of those kinds of sorts. You start to realize nobody wants to be teaching sales. It's very hard to learn. Most students actually have a hard time learning it. Typically, it's been left to companies to come up with a way to sell.

They actually don't think about it from the customer side. They think about it from their side. I call it the church of finance. We'll say like, “Well, how many leads do we need and what's the conversion rates and what's the funnel and how's the early funnel and the late funnel?” To trying to optimize it for efficiency when they actually don't actually understand how people are trying to make progress. I flipped it.

The next book I'm working on, I have a first draft of it in, we're in the midst of hopefully getting it out by beginning of Q3, but it's called demand side sales. Stop selling and help your customers make progress. The crazy part is as I built the frameworks out for the sales side of it, I started to work with five or six different companies. The first thing they realized is they've been trying to get everybody to a demo. The salespeople would be like, “If I can get people to a demo.” For every call to a demo, they get that conversion. For every demo to a close is really important.

We start to analyze how people buy. You start to realize they actually need three different demos. A demo in passive looking, which is tell me a story, versus a demo and active looking, which is tell me the possibilities, versus a demo in deciding which is show me, it won't break. You start to realize, they actually needs three different demos. They've been trying to optimize it for two years. They finally broke it apart and had three of them ask the customers where they were in the sales process and they've been able to actually have the selling time.

[0:35:23.8] MB: That's so interesting. I'd love to explore a little bit more some of the biggest behavioral shifts, or organizational changes that you advocate on companies that shift from the funnel, or financial approach to sales, to this customer-driven or demand-focused approach to sales.

[0:35:39.4] BM: Yeah. I think the first part is to think about it as the customer or consumers. They have their own implicit systems for making progress. The first thought. The first thought is actually only made four ways. You ask somebody a question, you tell somebody a story, you give them a new metric, or you state the obvious. That's how people get spaces in the brain. The thing is as marketers are so worried about being clever and funny and all these other things, but the reality is there's nothing funny about progress.

They're measuring for example, how well awareness is on the product. You start to realize when you do these stories, very few people actually shop anymore. They're asking people for help. They're literally doing their own research. They're doing their own things, and so trying to actually have a recall at the wrong moment, it doesn't actually give you anything. Part of this is making sure that people understand the buying process that people go through, not the selling process.

Then the second is what are the metrics? The one we're building right now is set some metrics around to know that people are in passive looking. It’s like, they've requested to hear your e-mail and the thing is is if I actually know that they've passed it on to five or more people, they're probably getting ready to go be an active looking. If they're just getting it and they’re not reading it and they're not looking at it, that's what we call passive looking and that's okay. It's their terms, not our terms. They're buying for their reasons, not our reasons.

We keep trying to actually push everybody to sell faster and more and we end up devaluing our product, so we can actually close earlier and I think we actually hurt everybody. It's a very different perspective for sure.

[0:37:13.9] MB: That's so interesting. You put customers essentially in those three buckets; passive-looking, active-looking and deciding?

[0:37:20.8] BM: Yup. I say that there's a first thought and then there's passive-looking, active-looking, deciding. Deciding is about trade-offs. Then there's first use. First use is about onboarding, it's about actually doing the job, where the aspect of deciding is about making the trade-offs to set up the expectations. Then once you've bought it, now do you actually deliver on those expectations. The other part to me is that every new innovation causes a new struggling moment for the next innovation.

Think of the iPhone, right? The iPhone went from it's a phone, you don't have to carry the music and then all of a sudden, the camera came up. Then all of a sudden, right now people don't buy it, because it's a phone. They're buying it because it's a camera and that happens to be a phone.

[0:38:03.3] MB: Yeah. Explain that to me a little bit more. I'm curious to unpack that concept.

[0:38:06.5] BM: Here's the thing is that what you realize is that when you actually solve one problem, like we want to actually integrate this thing, the first set of new problems we had was the battery life and the reception. You start to realize, people would end up – two things they do is they carry around batteries and cords and want to charge everywhere, in their minds is acceptable, until somebody came up with better battery and actually more efficient.

Then what happened is they had a small little camera and you start to use pictures and then you had the birth of Facebook and Instagram. Think of how many people wanted to take a picture, but couldn't? The razor was good enough. By the third, fourth generation, the camera, you can see and predict where the next generation of innovation has to become because of how it’s actually designed in the product and how they use it.

[0:38:51.0] MB: Yeah, that's really interesting. The example of how it shifted from one to the other, to battery life, to phones, I mean, it's pretty fascinating. I guess to try to summarize what you're saying, it's the idea that one innovation creates almost a butterfly effect, or a cascade of new both opportunities and challenges from a product development perspective.

[0:39:10.3] BM: That's exactly right. That's why there will always be more products. The question, are they meaningful enough? Think about it, when the iPhone first came out, the iPhone 3, iPhone 4, people were switching almost every year. It got to the point when they get to the 7 in the 8, it was like, people were like, “It’s good enough. I'm not struggling enough and it's not worth a $1,000. It's good enough for where I am.” There were people who were buying it, but they were buying it for different reasons than the people who didn't buy it. Finally, the people who are 6 going to the 10 or the 11 are really they're like, “Yeah, my old phone doesn't work anymore.”

[0:39:41.6] MB: Yeah. I mean, I pretty much only switch phones when my battery gets so degraded that I need to upgrade.

[0:39:47.0] BM: Let me tell you something else though. When you get a new phone, you usually have either a long weekend, or you have some time to actually set it up that you will actually have in your mind, like you do it right before a vacation, or you do it during a vacation, or you do it for a long weekend, a Memorial Day.

[0:40:01.4] MB: It's so weird that you say that, because the last time I bought a phone, I was on vacation, without ever thinking about that.

[0:40:07.7] BM: That's what I'm saying is you can see the pattern. The pattern is that you need time to set it up. If your phone breaks, then it’s an emergency. When you actually don't have to replace it, it's like, “All right. When should I do it?” You get to choose. It's like, “Yeah, I'm going to do this when I'm on vacation. It's more a weekend, or it's I'm doing a long weekend.”

The other thing is most people have a very hard time turning in their old phone. For example, when you switch from Android to Apple, or Apple to Android, it doesn't matter, you don't want to actually turn your old phone in, because you're afraid that you're not sure you're going to like the new phone. If you go from an Apple 7 to a 10, you're fine with it, because you know it's the basic same thing. Because there's always this anxiety or fear of like, “But what if I don't like it? What's going to happen to my data?”

[0:40:49.7] MB: Yeah. I'm a packrat with data, so I'm always worried. It's like, “Well, what if there's something I didn't get off the phone that I need later?” Anyway, so this has been a fascinating conversation. I'm curious, for listeners who want to start implementing this framework in some way, what would be one action step or first step that they could start to take to implement it?

[0:41:06.5] BM: There's a couple of things. One is a bunch of resources on iTunes, so we have jobs to be done radio, where it's about 40 episodes of people that we've used it with and interviews we've done and basic methods. There's a place called jobstobedone.org. We have some online training that basically covers the method and the tools. Then for the most part, there's a book called Competing Against Luck, that Clay Christensen in the Harvard Business School and I collaborated on. He basically wrote about me and my clients, which is phenomenal and that's out there.

Then I have a few other books. One is called Choosing College. Having four kids and try to get him through college, it was very difficult. I wrote a book about what causes people to say, “Today is a day I'm going to go to school,” and what progress are they really seeking to do, as opposed to what school they should pick. Not where to go, but why to go. Then I have the sales book come out. I'm trying to be everywhere on every topic.

[0:41:56.4] MB: Great. We will make sure, we'll include all that stuff in the show notes as well for listeners to be able to check out. I'm curious, in terms of a way to concretely take step one, instead of just passively consuming that stuff, somebody says, “I'm sold on it. I want to try this out.” What would be the first step you would tell them to do?

[0:42:13.3] BM: My suggestion is to interview somebody to get to the root causes, the underlying dominos of why somebody bought something, whether it's your kid, whether it's a co-worker. It's like, “Oh, yeah. I bought a new briefcase.” My belief is you can say, “Oh, the old one was wearing out.” Okay, let's dive into it. My thing is take 30 minutes and literally dig into and shoot the documentary of why they bought a new bag, right? It's not random. There's underlying causes there that literally will help you understand what happened and why they needed a new bag. It would be social, emotional and functional.

[0:42:44.6] MB: Great. Yeah, I love this starting with a friend or co-worker or something like that is a great way to get your feet wet.

[0:42:49.4] BM: I do discourage to interview your spouse about anything, only because you start to ask questions that you usually don't ask, it gets very uncomfortable fast. Start with a friend or a co-worker. It usually works a lot better.

[0:43:02.3] MB: Great. Excellent advice. Bob, we’ll throw all those resources in the show notes that you mentioned before. One more time, where can listeners find you and your work online?

[0:43:09.9] BM: I'm at therewiredgroup.com. We’re basically a small boutique consulting firm. Then I teach at Northwestern, so you can find me in the Kellogg School. Then Twitter, I'm @BMoesta. I'm on LinkedIn. If there's anything I can help you with, I'm driven to basically help put these things out into the world and hopefully have other people using them before I pass.

[0:43:32.8] MB: Well Bob, this has been a fascinating conversation. So many great insights. Thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing all of your wisdom.

[0:43:39.3] BM: Oh, thank you.

[0:43:40.9] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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April 02, 2020 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making
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The Power of Experiments: How To Drive Innovation and Opportunity During Times of Uncertainty with Stefan Thomke

March 12, 2020 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making, Focus & Productivity

In this episode we share the power of the experimental mindset. How can you use experiments to make better decisions and improve your life? What makes for good experiments? We share all this and more with our guest Stefan Thomke. 

Stefan Thomke is a professor at Harvard Business School. He has worked with global firms on product, process, and technology development, organizational design and change, and strategy. He is a widely published author with articles in leading journals and is also author of the new book, EXPERIMENTATION WORKS: The Surprising Power of Business Experiments and many more. He is the recipient of numerous awards, including awards from Harvard in innovative teaching and more!

  • Innovation is about dealing with uncertainty. 

  • Business is fundamentally about making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. 

  • The good news is that uncertainty creates opportunity. 

  • When we’re dealing with uncertainty we usually rely on experience and intuition. 

  • When your analyzing a lot of things in your business you often see a lot of correlation, but not a lot of actual causation 

  • What is innovation? 

    • Novelty + Value

  • You can innovate across the whole spectrum of your business

    • Products, services, customer experience, technology, process, business model innovations

  • Most people think that innovation needs to be breakthrough, disruptive, huge innovation - but most innovation is incremental and often incremental innovation can create a huge impact over time 

  • Small changes can have a massive impact on performance 

  • A big change is usually the result of the sum of many small changes

  • Even successful business people have about a 10% success rate when they conduct their experiments. You’re much more likely to get it wrong than to get it right. 

  • It’s desirable to have a fairly low success rate in your experiments, if you’re not succeeding enough you’re not pushing innovation enough. 

  • There’s a difference between a mistake and failure. Mistakes are failures to execute operationally. Failures however are different, they are at the heart of how innovation works. 

  • Failure is a result from a question and testing a hypothesis. 

  • What is an experiment? (Especially in the context of your business)

    • A perfect experiment the tester will separate an independent variable (The presumed caused) and then the dependent variable (the observed effect) while holding everything else constant. 

    • The key is to only change ONE thing and then see what the result is. 

    • This is hard to do in business. 

    • The best solution to account for 

  • The constant change in business is to randomize the changes over a big enough data set and randomly assign subjects to an A/B test. 

    • Randomization helps equalize the distribution of all causes except for the cause being tested.

  • An observational study is an experiment without any controls. 

  • How do you build an experimentation capability in your business?

    • You need an infrastructure.

    • You need the tools. 

    • Even in a brick and mortar environment there are tools you can use. 

    • There are lots of third party tools that are available now for running experiments. 

    • The tools are the easiest part. The harder part is to develop a culture of experimentation. 

    • What’s the right organizational design? 

  • You need to create a culture and norms that make experimentation a part of your culture and your business. 

  • Cultural pillars of experimentation

    • Curiosity.

      • You need a curious environment. You need a lot of hypotheses to test. 

    • Data trumps opinion (most of the time). 

      • This is really difficult. We happily accept results that are supported by our intuition, but we have a hard time accepting results that go against our intuition. 

    • Democratize experimentation. 

      • Empower people to run experiments without getting permission every single time. 

    • Ethics

    • Embrace a different leadership model

  • What are the leadership changes necessary to embrace experimentation in your business?

    • Leaders need to acknowledge that they are sometimes part 

  • “HIPPO’s” can be very dangerous 

    • Highest Paid Person’s Opinion

  • The leader has to set a GRAND CHALLENGE that can be broken into TESTABLE HYPOTHESIS that aim towards the goal

  • How do you scale this methodology down to smaller businesses?

    • Adopt A/B Testing

    • Leverage the tools available, they can be very inexpensive

  • How do you overcome low sample size? 

    • Bigger changes need smaller sample sizes. 

    • Small changes need bigger sample sizes. 

  • What do you use experiments for at a smaller organization?

    • Small Optimizations?

    • You can also run exploration experiments where you explore a direction - you may not have causality, but you can get a sense of direction and then pursue smaller experiments that get more towards causality

  • Experimentation is the engine of innovation. 

  • Homework: Acknowledge that experimentation matters. Then adopt a disciplined framework and start thinking about the basics of experiment design. Just get started, don’t worry too much about scale at the beginning.

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Stefan’s Website

  • Stefan’s Wiki Page

  • Stefan’s LinkedIn

Media

  • ResearchGate - Stefan Thomke Profile

  • Muck Rack - Stefan Thomke Profile and Article directory

  • Business Insider - “A Harvard Business School professor on how companies like Google and Amazon use experimentation to innovate, grow, and improve” by Stefan H. Thomke

  • Optimizely - “The Surprising Power of Online Experiments” by Stefan Thomke

  • Wharton University of Pennsylvania - “Case Study: The Ferrari Way” by Stefan Thomke

  • Appian - “When Shift Happens: Stoking Innovation When Experience Is not Enough, Part 1 of 2” by Roland Alston

  • MITSloan - “The Magic That Makes Customer Experiences Stick” by Stefan Thomke

  • Google Scholar - Stefan Thomke Citations

  • HBR - “At Booking.com, Innovation Means Constant Failure” with Stefan Thomke and Brian Kenny

  • HBR - Author and topic tags for Stefan Thomke

  • Forbes - “Cheap And Painless Innovation, Now Possible Through Online Experiments” by Joe McKendrick

  • Medium - “Harvard professor Thomke on Why Business Experimentation Matters” by Arjan Haring

  • Speaker Profile - Cutter Consortium - Stefan Thomke

  • Business Standard - Stefan Thomke articles

  • [Podcast] The Remarkable Leadership Podcast - Business Experimentation and Innovation with Stefan Thomke – #201

  • [Podcast] HBR Ideacast - How to Set Up — and Learn — from Experiments

  • [Podcast] The Ivy Podcast - Stefan Thomke - Harvard Business School Professor and Chair of Executive 

  • [Podcast] This is Product Management - Developing an Experimentation Organization is Product Management

Videos

  • Vimeo - Business Experimentation by Stefan Thomke

  • Harvard Business School Executive Education - General Management Program: Learning to Innovate

    • Product Innovation: The Challenge of Execution

  • Digital University - Interview with prof. Stefan Thomke - Digital University

    • Digital University - Professor Stefan H. Thomke, Harvard Business School - Session 1

    • Digital University - Professor Stefan H. Thomke, Harvard Business School - Session 2

    • Digital University - Professor Stefan H. Thomke, Harvard Business School - Session 3

  • Optimizely - Optimizely Partner Story: HBS Professor Stefan Thomke on Experimentation

Books

  • Experimentation Works: The Surprising Power of Business Experiments  by Stefan H. Thomke

  • Experimentation Matters: Unlocking the Potential of New Technologies for Innovation  by Stefan H. Thomke

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the Internet with more than five million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we share the power of the experimental mindset. How can you use experiments to make better decisions and improve your life? What makes for a good experiment? We share all of this and much more with our guest, Stefan Thomke.

In our previous, episode we shared how to memorize a deck of cards in less than 60 seconds, how to remember anything and hacks from one of the world's leading memory experts; our previous guest, Nelson Dellis.

Are you a fan of the show and have you been enjoying the content that we put together for you? If you have, I would love it if you signed up for our e-mail list. We have some amazing content on there, along with a really great free course that we put a ton of time into called How To Create Time for What Matters Most In Your Life. If that sounds exciting and interesting and you want a bunch of other free goodies and giveaways along with that, just go to successpodcast.com. You can sign up right on the homepage. That’s successpodcast.com. Or if you’re on your phone right now, all you have to do is text the word smarter, that’s S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222.

Now, for our interview with Stefan.

[0:01:35.0] MB: Stefan Thomke is a professor at Harvard Business School. He has worked with global firms on product, process and technology development, organizational design and change and strategy. He is a widely published author with articles in leading journals and is also author of the new book Experimentation Works: The Surprising Power of Business Experiments. He is the recipient of numerous awards, including awards from Harvard and Innovation and much more. Stefan, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:02:03.9] ST: Well, great to be here. Thanks, Matt.

[0:02:05.7] MB: Well, we're so excited to have you on the show today. There's so many insights. Experimentation has always been something that I thought is so important and I'm really excited to bring you on here and dig into it. I want to start out with something that a lot of business leaders and business people today, when they're making decisions, what are the current tools that they're using to inform those decisions and why might those not be necessarily the best approach?

[0:02:34.9] ST: Well, when you're thinking about decisions depending on what decision you make, there are various tools available. If you're making financial decisions for example, if you're calculating net present value and things like that. There's a whole arsenal of tools. The big issue and this is what my book is really about is innovation here, because innovation is fundamentally about uncertainty. This is really this about decision-making under uncertainty.

Usually in organizations, we're all about driving out uncertainty. In fact, a lot of the traditional tools are about eliminating, or minimizing uncertainty. In innovation, uncertainty actually creates opportunity. I always tell folks that in innovation, uncertainty is your friend, uncertainty and variability is your friend, because it creates opportunity for someone else to move into that space.

Now why is then uncertainty so difficult? Why is decision-making under uncertainty so difficult? Well, it helps to be a little bit more precise here about what uncertainty really means. When it comes to innovation, you face different kinds of uncertainties in a company every single day. First there is R&D uncertainty. That is when you're trying to create something new, does it and it could be a product, or service, or a customer experience, does it actually work as intended?

Then we have scale up uncertainty. Make something work, but can we scale it up? Can we make it at large volume, high-quality, reasonable cost and so forth. Then we have customer experience uncertainty. For a customer-facing, do we really know that the customers want what we are creating? Are they willing to pay for it? Lots of questions.

Then finally, there is what I call business uncertainty. If you're running a business, you need to make an investment decision. Again, the tools that we typically use for these kinds of things is net present value, internal rate of returns and these kinds of things. The reality of course is that when you're dealing with innovation and uncertainty, often you are the one who is actually creating the market. You're creating the segment. How do you put a net present value in something that doesn't exist yet?

How do we deal with this, Matt? Well, we rely on experience. Experience can really get in the way for us in a whole myriad of reasons. Then some of the listeners may say, “Well, but now we live in a world of big data and analytics and we can do – we can use all that to make decision-making better.” Here, we run into another set of problems. That is if something is really novel, by definition there is less data. Because if there was a lot of data around, that means someone has already done it before. It wouldn't be very novel. Then of call context matter; something that works in one context, doesn't work in another context.

Then third, I think and this is a big problem and I’m happy to maybe go more deeply into that. When you're running analysis in a lot of data, you get correlations. Correlations means that one variable changes along with another variable, they call vary. You don't really get information about causation. Of course, we're really interested in causation. We want to know that if I take an action, I want to have a certain outcome.

You can see where the challenges come in when you're traditional decision-making and of course, that's where the experiment comes in, because the experiment allows us to address some of these dilemmas and a well-designed controlled experiment will actually tell me something about causality.

[0:06:22.2] MB: Yeah, that's a great insight into what uncertainty is and how we start to think about making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. That topic especially has been one that we've really strived hard to answer on the podcast. I'm curious, coming back to innovation, before we even dig into experimentation which is a huge component of this. Tell me about innovation and what is the actual definition of innovation and what is the difference between that and things like invention and what people often perceive innovation being.

[0:06:55.9] ST: Well, when we think about innovation, we really think about two things; first element on this is of course, novelty. That's what usually comes to mind right away, but then there's also value. It's novelty, plus value. That makes it very different than the word ‘invention’. The word ‘invention’ is usually associated with patents. For those of you who have your name on a patent, know that there's no value requirement in a patent. Just has to be new and non-obvious and never published before.

Invention is an input to innovation, but it's not quite the same thing. In fact, I've seen companies that have lots of patents that created no value for anybody. Now the outputs of innovation could be many things; could be products, could be services, it could be new customer experiences. Then of course, it could be processes. I've seen companies that are really great at process innovation. Could be new technologies. This is perhaps one of the most difficult things to do for companies, it’s business model innovation. How do you create a new business model while you’re trying to make money with an existing business model?

Now when we think about innovation, we also think about different degrees. Often, Matt, when people talk about innovation, they often think about disruption, or breakthroughs and these kinds of things. Well, most innovation in the world is incremental. I think it's actually perfectly okay, because incremental innovation is more predictable. Incremental innovation is something that everybody can do. If I told all your listeners, “From tomorrow morning on, you're going to be a disruptive innovator,” most of us wouldn't know what to do. Like, “Do I come to work late? Do I dress differently? I mean, what do I actually do?”

Then of course, incremental innovation in the digital age is a little different than we traditionally think about incremental innovation. In the past, Matt, we associated incremental innovation with incremental changes in performance. In the digital world, that's no longer true. In fact, incremental small changes can have a massive impact on performance, because if you are a digital, you can scale things instantly and you can stale it to possibly hundreds of millions of people.

Even perhaps a 2% or 3% or 4% change, that's considered to be small, can actually have tens or even hundreds of millions of revenue impact. What is innovation? Well, it's all of this. It's all of this what I just described. To do it, you really need different models of approaching it.

[0:09:42.2] MB: That's a great point. You have a really good story about Bing and a very small change that they made there that led to a huge impact, because – I'd like to hear that, because it's so important to understand that almost the power of compound interest, these little changes can accrue and create huge results.

[0:10:02.3] ST: Absolutely, Matt. A big change is usually the result of the sum of many small changes. The Microsoft example, or the Bing example is a fascinating example. There's a Microsoft employee who was working on the search engine, of course. Had an idea about changing the way displayed ad headline. He thought by taking some of the subtext in the headline and moving it up and making the headline longer, that could actually have an impact on user engagement.

The employee showed this to a manager and the manager looked at it and wasn't really sure whether this would lead to anything. Because you can imagine that when you're adding more to a headline, maybe users will not read the headline because it's too long. Any case, the manager basically didn't pick up on that and this idea just lingered. It wasn't a complex idea. Would only take a few days to actually make the changes.

It lingered and then after six months or so, the engineer I think got a little impatient and decided just to go ahead with it, I assume without management permission and just launched this thing. Within hours, an alarm goes off. Now Bing, or Microsoft has lots of KPIs that they monitor automatically. When something unusually happens, there's a set of different kinds of alarms go off, this was an alarm called a too-good-to-be-true alarm. Something really strange happened when he launched this thing.

Immediately when the alarm goes off, an investigation begins. It's usually when you get a too-good-to-be-true alarm, there's some a coding error, except they couldn't find one. They run it again and the result replicates. Now what's even more amazing is that that change which by the way, again, it only took a few days of time led to an astonishing 12% of increased revenue. This was more than a 100 million dollars in just that one year alone and of course, more than a 100 million dollars in subsequent years.

Now what made the difference here? Well, the difference is the ability of an employee to actually launch the experiment and find out, because if the employee never launched the experiment, they would have never known. It's all about opportunity cost. It's an amazing story, where a small change led to a massive impact on revenue. In fact, turns out that people at Microsoft told me that this was in fact that biggest, most significant change or experiment that they ran in the history of Bing.

[0:12:47.3] MB: It's amazing. It reminds me of some of the research that has been done around creativity, which comes to a similar conclusion, which is that it's really, really hard especially in uncertain conditions for even the most experienced managers, or the people with a lot of previous success, or expertise to actually predict in the future what will succeed and what will fail. If you look at some of the creativity science, compositions from Beethoven and Bach and patents and all kinds of stuff, and even the most eminent creators really had very little ability to predict whether or not their next output would be a smashing success, or a total failure. That to me is very similar to what you're saying about business results and the importance of having a systematic approach to pursuing innovation.

[0:13:37.9] ST: That's absolutely right, Matt. I saw it in my research. In fact, I even got some data from companies on this. Turns out that and this was pretty consistent across different companies who are running a lot of these experiments. They all told me that they get it wrong about eight to nine out of 10 times. 80% to 90% of the times when they launch an experiment and they have a hypothesis, it turns out that when they observe the result that they get either a null result, or they get a negative result and that is that the effect is in the opposite direction of what they expected.

You can imagine now is – I mean, it's daunting, right? Is that you're running these experiments and you know ahead of time that you're much more likely to get it wrong, to get it right, and that is predicting what customers or consumers will do. It's just a normal way of doing things. When you're dealing with such “high-failure rates,” so what is the best approach to get this resolved? How do I adjudicate these kinds of things? Maybe the solution is and this is again what I'm advocating is just to run a lot of experiments.

That is if you're running say, a 1,000 experiments a year and you only get a 10% hit rate, you're still getting a 100 experiments that work and one of those experiments could be like the Bing experiment. You're also getting laser-precision, and that is you launch an experiment. Again, if it's well-designed, if it's controlled, it will actually tell you which actions cost what outcome. This is extremely powerful.

[0:15:25.7] MB: You touched on this a little bit, but to me it's really important to understand the success rate of experiments and the reality that even some of the top experiment-driven companies in the world, people like Amazon, etc., are still batting way less than 50%. Something like 10%, 20% success rate is a great success rate for running experiments in your business.

[0:15:52.0] ST: Absolutely. In fact, if the success rate were too high, I'd honestly be a little concerned, because maybe then they're not trying hard enough. Maybe they're being too conservative about what they're trying. Maybe they're already testing things that they already know. In fact, I think it's even desirable to have a fairly low success rate.

By the way, success is a loaded word in this context. Success and failure and what does failure mean? I know failure itself is not necessarily a positive word. I'm always very careful about what I mean by failure. I draw a distinction between what I call failure and a mistake. A mistake to me is something that creates absolutely no value. There's no learning going on. For example, operational execution. You’ll find the Amazon and I'm building yet another distribution center. That to me is an operational execution. There's really no question that I'm trying to answer here.

Of course, I want to minimize these kinds of things. I want to minimize mistakes. Failures are something different. Failures are at the heart of how the innovation process works. Usually, a failure is preceded by a question. When I've got a question or even a hypothesis and I'll run something and I get a failure, that then allows me to refine my hypothesis, or even refine my question and run another experiment and another experiment, another experiment. They all build on each other and there's learning going on each time it happens.

What you want to do is as an organization, you want to create an organization where failure is okay, failure is encouraged, but where mistakes are discouraged or minimized. That of course is very difficult. If you're operating at a large number of experiments and you're operating in an environment where in this case, failure 80% to 90% is just the way things do work every single day. It's normal.

I think whenever I run into people who operate in these kinds of environments, they're quite honestly don't think that much about these failures. It's just normal, because you see so many every single day.

[0:18:03.4] MB: That's a great point in understanding that distinction between a mistake and a failure is a critical piece of the mindset of experimentation. I want to come back to the broader concept of using experiments within business. Let's talk about and I'm curious to hear from you what are some of the best practices, the strategies, because it's easy to say, “Oh, yeah. I should be doing more experiments.” How do we actually start to really integrate those into our business? How do we really start to think about actually bringing experimentation into the workflow and the resource allocation and the processes of an organization?

[0:18:44.3] ST: That's a great question, Matt. I think may be helpful perhaps to take a step back and ask ourselves, first what is an experiment.

[0:18:51.4] MB: Yeah, that'd be great actually.

[0:18:53.4] ST: Yes, because usually when people speak about experiments in just a casual English language, I think they mean very different things. Often when I say I experiment, I mean, I'm trying something. Sometimes when I see in companies, an experiment becomes an experiment after the fact they've tried something and it didn't work and therefore, they won't call it an experiment. It wasn't really an experiment at the outset. There are different kinds of experiments that companies can run. When I talk about experiments, I mean, disciplined or rigorous experiments in the spirit of the scientific method.

Let me give you the pure definition first of what an ideal experiment is and of course, sometimes we have to relax some of these conditions, because sometimes the environments don't allow us to do these kinds of experiments. Here's what we're trying to accomplish in an experiment; in a perfect experiment, we have someone who's testing, a tester. In this perfect experiment, the tester will actually separate and what we call an independent variable, that is the pursuant cost, that is the thing that we're trying to change. For example, say a bonus that we want to give to the sales force.

From a dependent variable and the dependent variable for us is the observed effect. That for example, would be the revenue that that sales person generates, while holding all other potential cost is constant. That would be the ideal, right? You're only changing one thing and then you're observing some variable at the end and you don't have to worry about any of the other possible causes changing while I'm doing the experiment and affecting the experiment.

Now of course, that's an ideal experiment and maybe in a scientific laboratory, sometimes you can create these conditions where it can hold everything else constant. In a business, you can't really do that. There's a lot of things that are changing all the time. That's fine, because we can deal with that. The way we actually deal with a lot of things changing all the time is we randomize.

Going back to the example with the salesperson, what we want to do is the revenue that a salesperson generates could be affected by many things. It could be by maybe whether the person was sick on a particular day. It could be affected by the weather in certain environments. It could be affected by many, many different things of course, but we're only interested in one thing and that is the bonus that we're giving to that salesperson.

Again, the way we deal with this in experiments, we randomize, that is we take basically two groups or multiple groups, if there are multiple levels of experiments and then what we do is we basically randomly assign subjects, basically to these two conditions. One is basically no bonus and one is bonus. Now why do we randomize? The reason for randomization is really clever. That is we're taking all the other possible causes that could affect in a revenue of that salesperson and we equally distribute it across all the different salespeople that we’re testing them on.

By for example, flipping a coin, and so what we're doing is this way, we're doing is we're making sure that no particular sales person is biased in a particular way, which then would pollute the result. I think, Matt, maybe you're getting a sense of where I’m heading in. There's a lot of thought that needs to go into the design of these kinds of things to make sure that they work.

Now intuitively, the way people would often approach this, if you had this issue, the way they typically approach this – again, let's pick the salesperson problem again. What we would do is we would basically pick up here, say of a month and we're basically let the salesperson work for a month with no bonus. Then we do another period for a month where we actually approach the same problem again. We would basically take the salesperson and then give them a bonus. Then we compare the two periods. That would be the wrong way to do it, because it could be that during those two periods, there are a lot of other factors at work; the weather could be very different, the salesperson would feel very different. There are lots of different things going on. Maybe there are health issues. Lots of different things. We don't want to do that. We call that an observational studies, because there is no control.

The reason why we do it together at the same time, we run it at the same time, we split it essentially up in a condition where there is no bonus and the condition where there's a bonus is that we can then compare and contrast. We have a control that allows us really again to disentangle that one variable that we're interested in from all the other variables. That's just to get a sense of what a really good experiment looks like. There are many other variables that I talk about in the book that we ought to think through when we're actually designing the experiment. Some of them are may not be totally obvious, but if you don't do that the integrity of the results that come back may not be very good. Then the problem is and then you get a lot of noise and then you still don't know what decision to make, because of the high noise conditions. Yeah, hopefully that's helpful, Matt.

[0:24:21.2] MB: Yeah, that's really helpful and shines a lot of light on what needs to go into an experiment. I like the clarification of what differentiates an experiment from an observational study and those two distinctions as well.

[0:24:35.4] ST: By the way, Matt, there's a lot of research out there. There was actually a very famous paper written, a highly cited paper in the medical community where someone did a meta study. They actually compared medical studies where you would imagine the rigor is much, much higher than what we typically do in management. They actually compare observational studies with controlled studies. Turned out when they actually did the comparison, they found that most observational studies don't replicate. That is you can reproduce the result that you observed in that one observational studies.

It turns out that when you have control studies, they are more likely to be replicated than not. That tells you something about the importance of making that distinction. When you’re trying to run experiments, in which you try to identify cause and effect.

[0:25:27.3] MB: Very interesting.

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[0:27:33.0] MB: I want to come back to the second part that I asked you before we delved into this really necessary definition of what an experiment is. Coming back to this idea, how do you think about this strategies, the best practices, etc., for actually implementing experimentation in your business? Because that's one I've long thought that experimentation is really important, but often struggled with thinking about exactly how do we really make that a part of what we're actually executing from a day-to-day perspective in our business?

[0:28:05.1] ST: The question is really how do you build an experimentation capability in your business? Building a capability involves a number of different things. There are different factors and I'll just give you some examples without going through all of them. The book is quite detailed about these things.

First of all, of course you need an infrastructure and you need the tools. You don't want people to reinvent these tools every single time. Some of the leading companies while you're looking at an Amazon, or a booking, or Microsoft, or any of these company, Netflix, that do this at large scale in an online business, they all have a fairly advanced infrastructure. Even if you go brick-and-mortar, even in brick-and-mortar environments, there are tools available that you can use.

Now the good news is there are third-party tools, so you don't have to really build the same kinds of infrastructure that these companies had to build when they got started and the tools were not around. The tools are important. The tools turns out and this is often surprising. The tools may be the easier part, because you know what to do and if you put enough money into it and you hire enough people and all that.

I think the harder part is to build a culture for experimentation, to make sure that the behaviors and the norms and these kinds of things actually facilitate experiments, rather than inhibit them. That can be tricky, especially when you're trying to grow up and scale, when you're trying to do more than maybe just run 5 or 10 of those a year, when you suddenly want to run a 100 or 500, or even a 1,000, or even more than that. The culture really gets in the way.

There's a number of different elements that I identify, Matt, that are important when you're thinking about an experimentation culture. In fact, I call when you reach the end point, when you really create an experimentation culture, I call this an experimentation organization. Let me give you just quick five examples. The first is what I call cultivate curiosity. If you want to experiment, you need curious people, because they need to ask a lot of questions and they need to come up with a lot of hypotheses, because in order to feed a big experimentation apparatus, if you want to feed the infrastructure, you need a lot of hypotheses to feed it. Unless, you have a curious environment where people see failures not as costly mistakes, but as opportunities for learning, you're not going to get there.

The second thing I think that's really important is to create an environment where data trumps opinions most of the time. This is really difficult, because we often are driven by opinions, sometimes the boss's opinions. That's not going to work in an environment like this. Human nature is a big obstacle here.

We tend to happily accept what we call good results, the kinds of results that seem to go with our intuition, or that confirm our biases. When we see something that we consider to be bad that goes against our assumptions, we will then thoroughly investigate those things and even challenge them. You need to create an environment where in fact, where the data is essentially king. That doesn't mean by the way that every decision has to be made exactly according to what the experiment says. There are other reasons why you may not want to do it. On average and most of the times, the data has to trump opinions.

The third one is what I call you have to democratize experiments. That means you have to empower people to run experiments without getting permission every single time, because if they have to get permission every single time, you're not going to get scale. That requires again, an environment that's totally transparent, where people can also stop any experiment that they want, but it's completely democratized.

The fourth one is ethics. When you run experiments, you've got to be ethically sensitive. Sometimes it's very difficult to answer that question, to figure out what is actually unethical and what is ethical. Sometimes it's actually quite clear cut. If you're running unethical experiments, I can tell you, it's not going to be good for business in the long run and there many examples out there when companies ran experiments that maybe they didn't consider them to be unethical, but where users were not really happy about them and that really backfired.

Then finally a fifth one and there's more out there, but I just want to give you five examples is you have to embrace a different leadership model. That is the role that leaders have to play in an experimented culture is actually quite different than what they traditionally do. If in fact it turns out that a lot of decisions are adjudicated by experiments, you have to ask yourself what in fact is the role of a senior leader in an environment like this?

[0:33:00.6] MB: I'd be curious to dig into that a little bit more. What are the changes in the leadership model that are necessitated by a focus on experimentation, a focus on more data and a focus on using some of these methodologies?

[0:33:15.6] ST: Well, I think first of all, leaders have to acknowledge that maybe sometimes they're part of the problem, broad interest being only part of the solution. There's a word for those leaders out there in the community. It's called a HPO, a highest paid person's opinion. I think we all know that hippos are very dangerous animals. Sometimes when the hippo is out there, when they're circulating in an organization, it's very difficult for employees to challenge these HPOs.

What is in fact then the role of these senior leaders? Well, I've defined three roles, three important roles in these kinds of environments. Of course, there are still some decisions, like what’s the strategic direction and what acquisitions to make? These are the kinds of things that may not be testable anyway. When it's testable, three things again, which I think are really important. First of all, the leader has to send a grand challenge that can be broken into testable hypotheses.

Why is that important? Well, if you have an environment where there's a lot of people who are just experimenting running lots of experiments, you want to make sure that the experiments are aiming at a certain direction, rather than just doing things willy-nilly. There has to be an overall program that these experiments push forward. That's what I call the grand challenge. What is the grand challenge here that we're aiming towards? Then once you have a grand challenge, obviously you may not be able to test that grand challenge. For example, it could be create the best online user experience in the industry. You got to then break that down into lots of small hypotheses that all aim towards that goal.

The second one and that one is really important as well, is senior leaders have to put in place the systems and the resources to make it possible. You can't expect organizations to suddenly do a lot of experiments if the resources and the systems are not in place. It's things like what I talked about before, infrastructure tools and so on. Then they also need to think about what the right organizational design is. How do I – if people are starting to experiment, which groups start out? Where's the expertise in my organization? How do I roll it out? What are the decision rights and so on and so on?

Then the third role which I think is just as important is to be a role model. Now what does it mean to be a role model? It means that the leaders have to live by the same rules as everyone else. It also means that their own ideas have to be subjected to these kinds of tests. That's very difficult. One CEO told me that this is hard for most CEOs. You can't have an ego thinking that you always know best. It involves going into a meeting and telling people, “I just don't know.” Admit that you're wrong, having intellectual humility and so on.

Francis Bacon, the forefather of the scientific method once said and I really love that quote, Matt. “If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts. But if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.” You have to have that. That's the challenge. I think a lot of the leaders have to look in the mirror and really ask themselves whether their approach is really the right approach in this world that we're currently operating in.

There's a fun story at booking.com, where a new CEO came in and the team had some discussion around what the best logo design is. The CEO then basically said, “I decided this is the logo that we're going to go with.” People then looked at him and asked, “Well, that's an interesting suggestion. We'll run the test and we'll let you know what happens.” You need that healthy culture, where even the senior leaders can be challenged.

[0:37:20.4] MB: Yeah, that's such a great point. Oftentimes, one of my favorite Peter Drucker quotes is that the bottleneck is always at the top of the bottle. In the same vein, it's so easy for leadership to sometimes get in their own way around looking at the data, or putting their own opinions aside, etc.

[0:37:39.3] ST: Sometimes, Matt, even the leaders have the best intentions. There's a great story, another story. Ron Johnson. I don't know if you're familiar with that story. Ron Johnson was together with Steve Jobs. They created the Apple Store. It's really fascinating, because the Apple store is by any measure, perhaps the most successful retail concept that I think was created maybe in the last decade and enormously successful.

JCPenney, another big retailer in the US decides – they're looking at Apple and they're seeing all these amazing things happening and they decide, “Why don't we hire Ron Johnson as the CEO and with a mandate to do the sorts of magical things that he did for Apple.” At the time, I think Ron was a retail God, I mean, by any measure.

He gets hired as a CEO with a big incentive package. He comes to JCPenney and starts to implement a new bold plan. He does the kinds of things that he did at Apple, such as eliminating coupons. He has branded boutiques and new technology and all sorts of things. 17 months later, JCPenney is fighting for survival. Sales have plunged. Losses are soaring. Johnson loses his job and he's out and they're bringing the old CEO back in with a mandate to restore all the things that they did before Johnson arrived. The question is what actually went wrong? I mean, they had lots of data and so forth.

If you can listen to the folks there and the people on the board and others, they will tell you. They said, “Part of the problem is that we didn't run the test. We didn't run the experiments.” That probably could have told you. We don't know it's a counterfactual. We don't know whatever. They probably could have at least given you an indication that somebody's changes are not going to work for the kinds of customers that go to a JCPenney.

Even Ron Johnson later on reflected on this. He said that nothing rightfully, so he doesn't consider himself to be an arrogant person. He actually comes across as quite modest. He referred to this as situational arrogance. It's not that you're generally arrogant and you get so confident in your results, because you're so successful that you become situationally arrogant. The kinds of context that he was in just didn't transfer into the context that JCPenney had.

You have to again, even as a senior leader, even when you're really successful, you always got to look in the mirror and saying, “Is what I'm doing really true?” Even run the test. We've seen it at Snap Inc. it happened and many other companies, where people – where senior leaders got a little bit ahead of themselves. They didn't do enough testing and they paid the price.

[0:40:42.9] MB: Such a great insight. I want to bring back one other topic that we touched on earlier and just get your sense around this. Is there a certain organizational scale that this starts to kick in at? Or asking this in a different way; I can see this totally makes sense at a Fortune 500, a big company, huge budget. You could have a whole department that's doing this. For somebody who's in a small business, or a startup, or there's a sense of resource scarcity, how do you think about implementing this experimentation mindset and methodology at a smaller scale, at an organization that may not have the budget, or the opportunity to pursue it at that big of a level?

[0:41:26.4] ST: Yes. Even smaller companies that don't have the budgets or the resources can in fact adopt the same kinds of approaches. In fact, I think in these kinds of environments, it may be even more valuable. By the way, research by one of my colleagues has actually shown that they do actually adopt a lot of the tools in one space for sure, I called AB testing. It's one experiment and there are lots of tools out there. They adopt those tools. It actually helps them, because the tools end up being less expensive than heavily investing in market research, which they often don't have the resources for either. Rather than doing a lot of market research and trying to figure out what works and what doesn't work for more qualitative methods, they all just test it. That's one issue.

The other issue that often comes up, Matt, is the issue of sample size. Yes, maybe we're startup, maybe we have very small sample sizes, or even in a brick-and-mortar environment. We're not like a Booking that has 500 to 700 million visitors a month. We may have a much, much smaller number of visitors to our website. Or if we are a brick-and-mortar environment, we may only have maybe a few stores or so on which can try to experiment in. It turns out that even in small sample environment, you can run experiments.

There are actually again, analytical techniques that are available that allow you to get meaningful results from small sample environments, which are some of these methods are again, described in the book.

There's another thing also, which is important too. That is turns out that when you make bigger changes, you end up needing smaller sample sizes. It has to do with the power of statistical concept. If you make very small changes, then of course, you need larger sample size. The intuition is quite clear, that is you have a lot of noise in the background. Then if you make big changes, you want to basically detect the changes relative to the noise. It just takes the bigger the changes, the easier is this to detect it, so you can get away with smaller sample sizes.

I encourage small organizations that perhaps have much less traffic, or even in brick-and-mortar environment, encourage them to make bigger changes. It's also the question, what do you use experiments for? There are different kinds of experiments that you can run. You can certainly run optimization experiments. This is the kinds of experiments they say an Amazon will run on their websites to make sure that everything is optimized and that's what everybody essentially. All the big players essentially do.

You can also run exploration type of experiments, where maybe you're just exploring direction. Now, that's not going to give you causality, because you may be changing too many variables at the same time to give you a meaningful sense for causality about one individual variable. It may give you just a sense of direction, which then can be followed up by smaller experiments, more isolated experiments that then can teach you again about causality.

You're mixing. You're going back and forth. You could maybe toggle between your more exploration type of experiments and then more optimization experiments. There are lots of different ways of doing this. Again, I tried to outline all these different ways in the book.

[0:45:02.9] MB: For listeners who want to concretely implement this in their lives in some way, what would be one action step that you would give them to start implementing more experimentation in their lives or their business?

[0:45:17.0] ST: Well, I think beginning, you need to first acknowledge. You need to be aware that experimentation matters I always tell people experimentation is the engine of innovation. If you want to innovate, you need to experiment.

Now most people would say and in fact all people would say, “That's a good thing. I understand that I need to experiment more.” Then the question is what's the next step? The next step is you need to adopt some rigorous framework. You have to build some discipline around it, rather than thinking about experiments, “Okay, we're just trying something.” I think that's an important starting point. Be committed to building an organizational capability around it.

It also means that you can't do it alone. You need people around you. Then once you start and once you have some framework in place, it doesn't have to be the ideal experiment, but it needs to have some elements of what a good experiment is. Once you have that in place, you can start thinking about designing experiments. What would be involved, for example?

Well, the ability to write down a good hypothesis. We know. We use the word hypothesis all the time. Trying to understand some of what a good hypothesis is and what a bad hypothesis is, maybe train people, giving them templates of what it is. That's just an example of what I mean by a framework. Then once you have that in place, you just got to get going on, and so you get better at it and start overtime, then scaling it.

People sometimes get a little nervous when they hear, “Oh, okay. The companies are running a thousand experiments, even tens of thousands of experiments a year.” You have to always remember that all these companies started small. They all started with a handful of experiments. Then over time, they just got better and better and they gradually increased scale.

I think that would be my recommendation. Just get going on it. Don't think too much about it. Experimentation is going to be part of the competitive game going forward, whether you're in digital, moving into digital, or not digital. In fact, some CEOs told me that are doing this at large scale, unless you do this, you're going to be dead. I mean, that's a pretty big endorsement. That's my advice. Get going on it.

[0:47:34.0] MB: Where can listeners find you and the book and your work online?

[0:47:38.4] ST: The book is of course, available in all bookstores, online and also physical bookstores. It's out there, all the usual ones; Amazon and Barnes & Noble, independent bookstores and so forth. If they want to learn more about what I do, you can find me online. I'm at Harvard Business School. I'm not going anywhere. I'm here. I've been here for almost 25 years now. You would find me on www.thomke.com and that will take you directly to Harvard Business School, my website. You can also go directly to Harvard Business School and search me.

If you want to contact me, you can send me a link. In the request, just tell me where you heard me, so I can make the connection. If you've got a question, send me an e-mail. It's very simple as well. It's just the t@hbs.adu. Lots of different ways to get to me.

[0:48:34.9] MB: Well Stefan, thank you so much for coming on the show, for sharing all this wisdom, great insights into the power of experimentation.

[0:48:43.5] ST: Thanks, Matt. Thanks for having me.

[0:48:45.4] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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March 12, 2020 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making, Focus & Productivity
Alec Torelli-02.png

Would You Bet Your House On The Turn of A Card? High Stakes Lessons with Alec Torelli

November 21, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making, Money & Finance

In this episode, we share lessons from the world of high stakes poker. What’s it like to bet millions on the turn of a card? What can we learn about making better decisions and dealing with tough emotions under these extreme circumstances? We share a powerful strategy for managing your emotions in a crisis, show you how to make tough decisions like a professional poker star, and much more with our guest Alec Torelli.

Alec Torelli is an entrepreneur, motivational speaker, and professional poker player. As a poker player, Alec has won millions playing live cash games and some of the biggest tournaments live and online. As a coach and digital entrepreneur, he shares his knowledge and insight to help others achieve their life goals. Alec has been featured on ESPN, CBS Sports, Travel Channel, Fox Sports, Poker News and many more.

  • How a lanky 16-year-old become one of the highest stakes poker professionals in the world

  • Making the decision to drop out of college - how do you justify it?

  • How you can make tough life decisions by logically evaluating the downside

  • Talking to yourself in the third person helps you pull out of the emotions of a tough moment and get a more objective perspective?

  • Why you shouldn’t let the fear of other people’s opinions hold you back

  • Logic vs Intuition? How do you use each of them to make decisions? Which is more important.

  • You don’t have to choose between logic and intuition - the best decisions merge the two of them together. They should work in harmony.

  • Intuition is not the same as emotion. They are very different.

  • Reframing into the third person is a powerful strategy to take yourself out of tough situations and make much better decisions under pressure.

  • Ask yourself: “What should Alec do here?” If you’re watching Alec play poker, what advice would you give him in this spot?

  • Emotions often arise when you latch onto something and you want it to be different than it is - you want something to be a way other than it actually is - you become frozen in what was.

  • Meditation and mindfulness and powerful strategies for peak performance at high stakes

  • Self-forgiveness and self-compassion are cornerstones of improvement and growth at the highest levels

  • Evaluating your decisions on the merit of the decision-making not the merit of the outcome.

  • The biggest decision making lessons from poker.

    Most people operate under the illusion that good decisions to lead to good outcomes, but the real world is much messier than that - there is a huge amount of variance and noise between a decision and an outcome.

  • Don’t get caught up in “n of 1” fallacies when making decisions - just because something worked for someone doesn’t mean it’s a good decision.

  • Outcomes in life aren’t binary - when you only view things are 0 or 100 you are missing a huge amount of perspective when weighing your decisions. Most things in life aren’t black and white - think about the probabilities of outcomes.

  • The reality is that luck plays a huge roll in everyone's’ life. Being dealt a winning hand is a pre-requisite to succeeding in a lot of ways.

  • Look for bigger sample sizes when making decisions - don’t overweight short and small sample sizes.

  • How do you prioritize what’s important in your life?

  • Before you do anything - figure out what you’re trying to accomplish?

    • Before making a bet in poker

    • Before spending your time on something

  • Homework: Talk to yourself in the third person when making a tough decision.

  • Homework: Take up a meditation practice.

  • Homework: Get really clear about your personal goals. Track your spending - what get’s measured get’s managed. And align your spending with your goals.

    • Starting small, and re-aligning your resources with your goals - GREAT suggestion.

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Alec’s Website and Wiki Page

  • Alec’s LinkedIn, Twitter, and Facebook

  • Conscious Poker Website

    • Conscious Poker Membership

    • Intro to Hand Reading Course

Media

  • [Profile] The Hendon Mob - Player Profile: Alec Torelli

  • Poker Listings - Alec Torelli: "It’s Not Just About the Game and Money" By Dirk Oetzmann

  • [Article Directory] Poker News - Alec Torelli

    • “ALL IN with Evan Jarvis: Interview with Alec Torelli” by Sarah Herring

  • [Podcast] Rec Poker: Ep 085 - Alec Torelli

  • [Podcast] What Got You There with Sean DeLaney - #152 Alec Torelli- Million Dollar Decision Making (Aug 23, 2019)

  • [Podcast] Postflop Poker Podcast - Episode 92 - Hand Reading ft Alec Torelli

  • [Podcast] The Open Mic Podcast With Brett Allan - Ep. 132 | Alec Torelli Professional Poker Player and Entrepreneur, Helps You Find Your North Star In Life

Videos

  • Conscious Poker YouTube Channel

  • 3 MISTAKES to Avoid With Pocket Kings in Cash Games (Poker Strategy)

  • Poker Etiquette: Sickest Angle Shoot in Poker History!

    - Decision Making   - 

    • How to Make Unstoppably Good Decisions at the Poker Table

    • The Secret to Making Big Decisions in Poker

    • Can You Make the Right Decision and Still Be Wrong?

    • How to Make Good Decisions

  • ThisisPoker- Great Poker Hand Daniel Negreanu vs Alec Torelli

  • Poker Player Podcast - Alec Torelli on the Poker Player Podcast with Andreas Froehli

  • [Video Directory] 9 to 5 Poker - Alec Torelli

Misc

  • [SoS Self-Compassion Episode] Uncover the Root of Your Pain, How to Smash Perfectionism, Love Yourself, and Live a Richer Life with Megan Bruneau

  • [SoS Self-Compassion Episode] Discover Your Hidden Emotional Insights & What’s Truly Valuable To You with Dr. Susan David

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the Internet with more than four million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we share lessons from the world of high-stakes poker, what’s it like to bet millions on the turn of a card, what can we learn about making better decisions and dealing with tough emotions under these extreme circumstances. We share a powerful strategy for managing your emotions in a crisis, show you how to make tough decisions like a professional poker player and much more with our guest, Alec Torelli.

Are you a fan of the show and have you been enjoying the content that we put together for you? If you have, I would love it if you signed up for our e-mail list. We have some amazing content on there, along with a really great free course that we put a ton of time into called How To Create Time for What Matters Most In Your Life.

If that sounds exciting and interesting and you want a bunch of other free goodies and giveaways along with that, just go to successpodcast.com. You can sign up right on the homepage. That’s successpodcast.com. Or if you’re on your phone right now, all you have to do is text the word “smarter”, that’s S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222.

In our previous episode, we unlocked the power of asking. When you ask for what you need, miracles can happen, but so many of us are too afraid to really ask, or we feel like we don't know how, or what we should be asking for.

How do you get better at asking? How can you tap the tremendous power and potential of the social capital within your network by using the power of asking? We asked and answered all of these questions and much more with our previous guest, Dr. Wayne Baker. If you want to finally ask for what you really want in life, listen to our previous interview.

Now for our interview with Alec. Please note, this episode contains profanity.

[0:02:13.8] MB: Today, we have another exciting guest on the show, Alec Torelli. Alec is an entrepreneur, motivational speaker and professional poker player. As a poker player, Alec has won millions playing live cash games in some of the biggest tournaments live and online. As a coach and digital entrepreneur, he shares his knowledge and insights to help others achieve their life goals. He's been featured on ESPN, CBS Sports, The Travel Channel and many more media outlets. Alec, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:02:39.9] AT: Hey, Matt. It's an honor. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.

[0:02:42.3] MB: Well, we're super excited to have you on the show today. As many longtime listeners know, I'm an avid fan of poker and I think there's so many lessons that can come out of poker to teach us to be better decision-makers and live better lives. I'd love to start the conversation out and explore a little bit how does your poker journey begin and how did you become someone who played at some of the highest stakes imaginable?

[0:03:05.7] AT: Good question. Yeah, it was a journey. I started playing at 16. I got invited to a friend's house and I won $12 or so my first time playing. They say, the worst thing that could happen to someone that is betting or gambling is they win their first time, because then they're hooked. I was extremely hooked. I loved it. I loved the fact that it was – there's a psychological component that I could beat my friends, that I can make money. I seem to have a knack for it. It was probably almost completely due to beginner's luck winning the first time, but of course it went to my head I thought I was some hotshot.

That just propelled me to keep playing the game and just get as good as I can and play as often as possible. In high school, I really got serious about poker. I was playing after school every day that I could find the game. I was reading what limited books there were and talking with friends. It became apparent that I was one of the better players in the home games that I would play in and I would consistently win money.

Later in high school, I started playing online poker. I had some good results early on. I remember one day after school I went to a friend's house and I won a tournament. There was 500 people that entered. I got first place and won over 2 grand, which in high school is infinite money. I was going to retire.

These early successes allowed me to really remain enthusiastic about poker and keep pursuing it as much as possible. When I was 18, I was at SMU in Dallas, Texas and I was making a decent amount of money playing online poker. I'd saved up probably between 20 and 30 grand, which was a lot for an 18-year-old at the time and in college. I realized that I was slacking behind in university, because I was dedicating so much time to poker. I was playing tournaments late at night on Sundays, staying up till 4:00 or 5:00 in the morning and then missing my economics class.

I realized I'm at this crossroads where I could not become better at poker and move to the next level and achieve my goals of traveling around the world and playing in some of the biggest tournaments and cash games if I'm still in university. Even athletes, not to compare myself, but I have the same dilemma. Should I stay in school, or go to the pros? You just can't do both if you want to compete at the highest levels, right? Especially if you want to get a degree and focus and all these things.

I evaluated my worst case scenario and I realized, you know what, the worst thing that happens is I'm 19-years-old. I’d give myself a year. I lose the 20 or 30 grand I saved and I'm basically back in the same place as everybody else, except I'm one year older, which is not really that bad of a worst-case scenario. I just lose a year of time, but I have this incredible experience and I get to test what it's like to live out my dream.

The best-case scenario is that I make it somehow and I reach this goal and I'm traveling the world and I'm playing on the level that I see these people that I look up to on television playing in. That was a pivotal moment for me and I really went all-in at that time. I had some good results after that, some ups and downs along the way. I mean, this was 15 years ago, so obviously it wasn't – the rest wasn't all history. It was making that choice that gave me the at-bat to get the successes that later came.

Shortly after that, things went really well for me. I moved to Australia, because I couldn't play poker in the US and I wanted to compete in the biggest tournaments. While I was there, I got up early one day to play an online tournament. Actually, it was the biggest tournament in history at the time. I ended up winning. I won over a quarter million in a day and I was 18 or 19 at the time. That year, I continued to play a lot of online poker and I became one of the biggest winners in online poker on the biggest website at the time, called Full Tilt.

In cash games alone, I made over a million dollars that year. I feel weird saying numbers, but unfortunately that's the only way we have of keeping score. I can't tell you how many points I scored. I could just tell you how many dollars I won, so I don't want this to come across the wrong way, but that's our metric, or it's our currency. That really put me on the map and gave me those early successes that allowed me to continue throughout my poker journey.

[0:07:10.1] MB: That's fascinating. The Full Tilt reference. I was a Full Tilt player back in the day and I remember it didn't have nearly the pallets that you had on there, but I remember having all my funds frozen and everything when the site got shut down.

[0:07:21.7] AT: Yeah, me too.

[0:07:22.2] MB: Which I'm sure was much more problematic for you. Even the subtle mental model that you just shared just now is really interesting, which is this notion of evaluating the downside and making a decision which seems really controversial, something like dropping out of college.

Yet, you looked at it in a very rational way and realized that instead of carte-blanche ruling it out, or catastrophizing and thinking that, “Oh, I can't do that. My life will be over.” You looked at it in a really rational perspective and I think that's something that's missing in a lot of people's lives is this idea of looking at tough decisions and figuring out and actually logically mapping out what's really going to happen if I take this seemingly crazy risk?

[0:08:04.8] AT: Yeah. I have my parents to help thank for this instilling me this this process. My dad is very analytical, logical. My mom gave me extreme amounts of confidence to believe in myself. I could confidently say at the time, this was before poker was really on the map 15 years ago, zero people that I talked to thought that dropping out to play poker was a good idea. It really took a little bit of conviction there. I got that confidence from my mom’s side. Then from my dad's side it's really about the practical side of things and thinking things through and being rational and logical about decision-making.

I really feel that skill set was amplified in poker, because what you're taught is to separate the facts from the noise and not let emotions cloud judgment when making decisions and not let fear cloud judgment. A lot of times in poker, you're in a big hand, right? Especially, as I moved up in stakes and started playing bigger and bigger games. When one single bet could be 10, 50, a $100,000 in a single bet, right? Not even a single hand. Just a single bet within a hand. In theory, you can look at it like this is the correct play, but it's another thing to be able to actually make the play.

What poker teaches you to do is really focus on the process of making the right decision, independent of how you're feeling in the moment. Independent of the fact that you may have just lost a big hand, or what are other people going to think if you make a bonehead play and they see you turn over a bluff, or how are you going to be critiqued, or how are you going to be looked at on television by the rail, or the people watching? That really served me well in these times when I needed to make big life decisions and separate those facts from the noise and really evaluate what is the merit of this decision.

I focused on something I tell myself still to this day at the tables. I talked to myself in third-person. It sounds ridiculous to do this, I understand, but I feel a lot of times when you're in the first-person and you're involved in a situation emotionally, that's when it clouds our judgement. By creating space between yourself and the situation, it's easier to see things objectively. Let me give you an example, if your friend asks you for advice about what he should do in a relationship or a personal situation, you usually have a clear answer and pretty confident. Why is it so true that it's so hard for us to see our own situations objectively? That's because we're involved in them.

When you create that space between yourself and say Alec, what is the best decision here? What are the benefits of path A and what are the risks? Then to get those things down on paper concretely and evaluate them separately and then attribute a score to them, or an importance to them, right? Or to attribute a significance to each one of these factors really helped me analyze the situation and see clearly that really the only thing – there really was not that big of a downside. Really what was holding me back was the fear of the opinion of other people. That would have been the only reason why I didn't go through with this. When you get to that place, it's nonsense not to do it. I think that poker really helped amplify this process for me.

[0:11:04.6] MB: That's another critical perspective shift that is missing in so many people, or that I think is such a critical skill set to really separating yourself from the pack, to being at your risk takers, this idea of not letting other people's opinions hold you back or get in your way.

[0:11:22.7] AT: Yeah. I think the idea is to be in a place where you can listen to the opinion of others and respect and take it into account, but always keep in mind that everybody's looking at the world from their vantage point. You can't really ultimately make a decision based on someone else's opinion, because they're attributing their values to your situation. Ultimately, only you know in your heart what is right. It's that guiding intuition that everybody has, where it's the best decisions I feel we make are ones where we just know instinctually what the right direction is.

For example, I talked about this in the keynote I gave where in poker you sometimes use logic versus intuition to make decisions. Sometimes you use intuition to read other people, sometimes you use logic to analyze the math, the numbers and their betting patterns. When you think about your life decisions, the biggest ones we make, I feel most of the time you can you could weigh in to pros and cons.

Even when I was doing this going to college, debating whether or not I should leave university, it was you can get everything down on paper, but then ultimately, that process might help you come to a realization or give you confidence, but ultimately, if you close your eyes in the stillness of your own silence, I feel most people know what the right answer is for something.

It's about listening to that, as opposed to separating the voice of fear. For example, I was together with my wife or my girlfriend at the time and I was – I remember asking a friend like, “How do you know if she's the right person?” Because I was debating, I wanted to propose to her. I was like, “Well, how do I know? There's no guidebook for this and you're not taught this.” Definitely making a huge decision like this, I don't want to get it wrong.

He's like, “Well, you pick three things in a partner and if they have those things that are the most important to you, you know it's the right decision.” I'm like, “Well, okay. On brown paper has these three things. She has many more and not a lot of things I don't like, but am I really going to you use this logical approach to make a decision?” I'm like, “No. This doesn't even make sense, right? I'm not going to make a decision about whether or not to get married, because someone checks my list of boxes.”

I closed my eyes and I just asked myself, “Alec, you have 3 seconds to decide should you marry?" A renowned yes. I just knew that this was the right decision. I didn't overthink it. I didn't analyze it any further or whatever. I just bought a ring the next day and proposed. We've been married six, seven years and things are great. I feel in those situations, people know intuitively what the right decision is, but the key is trusting themselves.

[0:14:02.7] MB: That's really interesting. There's a couple things I want to break down from that. Let's start with this notion of logic versus intuition. Tell me more about how each of those factors into decision-making, both in a crucible, like poker where you're in these incredibly tough decision points and you're in some cases, betting the amount of money that might be a car or a house on the turn of a card. How do you think about weighing those two things and which do you think is more important?

[0:14:30.8] AT: Good question. In one of the biggest hands I played, it was televised hand and I got dealt a monster. I had three nines and the book says to go all-in. I bet out 1,100, or bet into this pot. My opponent raises me. I immediately got a feeling like he had a strong hand. It was just an intuitive read I got. Maybe it's because he looked down at his chips. It's hard to quantify these things. I could try and explain it later and I have a YouTube video explaining my thoughts on this hand, but it's hard to quantify why your intuition gives you a read about something, right?

It's like when you meet someone for the first time, your intuition tells you right away if you like that person or not. It's hard to put into words. It's not because they have a black shirt, or their shoes, or the color of their hair. It's just you get a feeling about them. That's what I'm looking for in poker and also in life as well. I'm listening first to the intuitive read I get about a scenario, a person, a business deal, whatever it may be.

Then I'm using logic to back up what my intuition says, to see if it makes sense and if it checks out. Then I go through the hand I was playing against Chad, for example. I said, “Okay, what types of hands is he going to raise me here? What types of hands is he going to bluff me here with? Is he really capable of bluffing on television? Is he really going to risk this much money in this spot with a bad hand?”

As I walked myself through the logical side of things, I then realized that those things were unlikely. It was likely he had a very strong hand and I folded. It turns out he had a straight. I would have lost the hand if I continued. It's about first and foremost understanding the relationship, but then also understanding that these two things actually work together. I feel in poker, as well as in life, people sometimes identify themselves or feel they have to choose between one or the other.

I think when you look at the best decisions, like in the case of dropping at a university, or marrying my wife, the big decisions as well, these two things should actually work in harmony. There should be a marriage between these two things. When in doubt, I always find that when I'm at the poker table for example, there are times where they're in conflict.

There are times when I feel like for example, I know my opponent has a really good hand and I should fold, but then my rational mind starts talking and I tell myself things like, “Well, I can't fold this hand. My hand is too strong, or the pot is too big. I can't fold. I'm committed.” I start to override my intuition with the voice in my head. I start to override my intuition with logic. Those are the situations where I pay the biggest price.

If you look at your life, I feel these are things as well. It’s when you know you shouldn't get involved with that relationship, but you do anyway because you talked yourself into it, because you say these certain things to yourself and then you get involved and then you get in trouble, or your intuition tells you you shouldn't get involved with this person. It's probably not the right business deal, or you're too busy to take on another task, or another project, but there's this opportunity and it's going to be so important and there's all these logical reasons why you should do it, so to speak, and then talk yourself into it and then it turns out you should have trusted yourself the whole time.

I feel when they're in conflict, I try and let my intuition be my guidepost in decision-making. A really important caveat to this is that intuition is not emotion, right? Emotion is something like, “I'm frustrated. I'm losing at poker. I want to get my money back. I'm going to play really aggressive to try and win this next hand.” That's not your intuition talking. That is your emotion. That's your ego.

I feel having that space, that's why I'm always trying to create that space between the first-person and third-person to help myself emotion from the decision-making process, because emotional decisions unlike illogical or intuition ones, intuitive ones are actually the worst decisions that we can make and those are the ones that cost people a lot of money at the poker table.

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[0:19:45.1] MB: Give me a sense of exactly how you talk to yourself. What does that actually sound like?

[0:19:51.3] AT: It depends on where I am in the hand. My process starts actually in the beginning. I actually teach this to clients that I work with. If you think about a tennis player and how they approach a point of tennis, you can see that they have a very specific routine, right? They go through the process of dribbling the ball a certain amount of times, calling for the towel and then getting ready for the point and then throwing the ball up and serving. I created the same thing in poker. I call it a power routine.

Between every hand, before the cards are even dealt, I'm trying to pry myself to focus on playing the next hand the best way possible. While the hand is being dealt, I'll close my eyes for half a second, take a deep breath and say my focus is to play this next hand the best way possible. That allows the emotion, or charge, whether it's positive or negative from the last hand to step aside and me come back to the present moment and focus on my only objective right now, the only thing that I can control, the only thing that can make me win more money, or earn more chips, or whatever it is is playing this next hand the best way possible.

That might be a trivial decision like folding two terrible cards. That might be all I can do. That is all I can do. I think that helps me eliminate the emotional side of things from the get-go by having a clear focus. Then a lot of times, I'll be in the middle of a hand and sometimes I'll be facing a big decision. Let's say my opponent bets out a large amount of money, or I know that it's the right situation to bluff with a large amount of money, but I'm scared. I'm scared because it's a large amount of money, or I'm on television. What are people going to think if I make a mistake, or he calls me, or I'm wrong? All these thoughts that are going through my head, all this ego going through my head.

I will literally talk to myself in the third-person. I'll say, “What should Alec do here?” I'll pretend that I'm my friend giving me advice, because it's so much easier for the friend to give advice. It's so much easier to tell someone else what to do. Instead of me being in the first person sitting at the table, facing a $100,000 bet, I'll pretend that I'm watching Alec play poker. I'm just the friend sitting over his shoulder telling him, “Hey, look. You should fold. The guy has a strong hand. Or you should bet, the guy has nothing. It's clear this is the best play. Make it.”

Then when I'm giving advice to Alec, then I could step back into the driver's seat equipped with the right information and my focus on making the best decision possible and leave fear and emotion by the wayside. Then I could execute on that play that it is required, that fearless aggression that really separates the good players and the great ones. I try and do that. I fall short many times, but at least I have this system. I feel the system really helps me execute in real-time when the stakes are the highest.

[0:22:30.9] MB: That's super helpful, even that phrase of what should Alec do here? What should Matt do here? Pulling yourself out of that and imagining that you're giving advice to your friend who's playing is such a great tool that you could easily implement in many different tough and high-stakes situations.

[0:22:48.8] AT: I mean, I do this all the time, like even in trivial situations. For example, I manage my own data, but everybody does to some extent manage their own time schedule. Sometimes I'll have free time. Before this interview, I had 30 minutes. I said, “Okay, what should Alec do?” I try and pretend that I'm sitting on the couch looking at this person and thinking like, “Okay, what day has he had? Is he stressed? Does he need to finish something? Does he need to relax? Does he need to read? Does he need to eat?”

It's easier to understand what you should do. Or is Alec hungry, or is he thirsty, or he stressed? What emotions are you actually feeling at this time? Or all these sorts of situations that I face on a daily basis. Because emotion is tough and it often leads us to do things that we think we want in the moment, but that we don't actually want long-term.

For example, what you really want is to be in good shape and feel great and know that you're nourishing your body by exercising and eating healthy, but you don't want emotionally in the moment to have – you want to have sugar and simple carbs and you want to sit and watch Netflix. What you would want if you were thinking about it logically, or long-term is to make a healthier choice and to exercise.

If you let emotion get [inaudible 0:24:08.6] make those decisions a lot of times. Because I mean, a lot of days I get up and I emotionally don't want to exercise. If I think about what is the best decision for Alec to make, it should be to get his ass on the bike and do is 30 minutes of hit training.

I let that be my guide. Then afterwards, I'm always grateful, because you're always happy that you did the thing that you know was best and you reap the benefits of it. In the moments, emotions sometimes speak loudly. If you give in to them, that's when I feel you make mistakes in the macro and in the micro.

[0:24:40.3] MB: That's obviously a very powerful strategy for dealing with emotions in some of these really tough situations. Are there any other tools that you use when you are sitting across the table with hundreds of thousands of dollars on the line making these really difficult decisions?

[0:24:57.2] AT: Like to separate emotion out of the situation?

[0:24:59.5] MB: Yeah, dealing with the emotions in that situation.

[0:25:03.4] AT: Well, one thing that's really helped is just staying present and staying concentrated on the specific hand. Because emotions are only really – usually when you latch on to a thought about the way you want something to be, that it isn't currently right now. For example, you are frustrated that you lost that last hand, because you feel you got unlucky and you’re entitled to win that pot.

Then holding on to that – I mean, that's just a thought, right? That's something that comes. If you give it energy, it will stay in the consciousness of your mind and you'll be thinking about that, but then it's the latching on to the thought that exacerbates the emotion. It's not the thought itself. A lot of times, I don't even know if we can control the thoughts that appear, but we can control whether or not we give attention to them. I feel meditation has really helped in mindfulness, just staying present and observing the thoughts, or to come by, but then not necessarily giving attention to the ones that are going to create an emotional state, a charged emotional state.

For example, I feel all the same things. I'm human. Let's say I get all my money and I'm 90% to win, this happened in the World Series main event. I was all in with aces and someone else had ace, king. I'm 94% to win and I lose. It happens all the time. Obviously, I feel all the same pain that other people feel. I feel frustrated. I feel annoyed. Am I cursed with my luck? Why did that happen to me? Those are thoughts that come. I feel like what I try to do and again, I fall short often, but what I try to do is to come back to the present moment. Ask myself what I can focus on and then pay attention to a more empowering thought.

It's not focusing, or giving attention to the thoughts that could lead to me being in a perpetual negative emotional state. That's a big one. I think that happens and it serves me well in my life too, when something stressful happens to me, or doesn't necessarily happen to me. I want to say it that way. Just I'm encountering a moment of potential stress in my day for something goes wrong in the business, or who knows? A million different things. Having a system to let that go and to focus on a new thought, a new energy pattern is really – has really helped me. I feel like meditation I got to credit a lot from that, and that's been a practice I've been working on for four years.

[0:27:31.0] MB: You mentioned a couple times this notion of falling short, whether it's your mindfulness goals or using the right emotional management strategies in some of these tough situations. The lesson behind that is another key takeaway in performance at its highest levels. That's this notion that it's not about being perfect every single time and collapsing and giving up and beating yourself up when you don't do it perfectly. It's having these routines and strategies. Even if you adhere to them 30% of the time, or 50% of the time or whatever, you create a huge edge over a long enough time sample just by having that little difference and not getting so frustrated that you don't do it every single time.

[0:28:12.5] AT: Yeah, self-love, or whatever you want to call it. Self-forgiveness is something that's difficult. I think we all struggle with it. What I try to remind myself is Roger Federer hits balls in the net and I'm never going to live up to his level in poker, probably anything in terms of his prowess in sport. Of course, I'm going to make mistakes at the poker table. I feel like worst enemy in my own toughest critic. I feel we have to have that if we want to improve. You have to hold yourself to very, very high standards.

In fact, it's arguably the standards you hold yourself to that determine how far you'll get, right? You have to have those standards. At the same time, especially after losing days, I'm very critical about how I played. Even on winning days, I'm very critical about all the hands I play. I write them all down. I come back. I run them in the lab. I run them by my friends who give me brutally honest feedback. Then at the same time, I try and congratulate myself along the way for little milestones, even after a hand where I'm like, “Alec, I think it's okay.”

This is something I only started doing recently. Again, this is something I've struggled with is this self-love thing. I say and I'll allow myself to say to myself without feeling like I'm praising myself for no reason, but to allow myself to say something like, “Alec, you played that hand really well.” Give yourself a little bit of reward, or congratulations on the way, instead of just always beating yourself down when you make a mistake. I think that's fine. You also have to give yourself that praise and reward and accomplishment, the feeling of accomplishment that you're doing well along the way.

Even little things like after a workout now, I'll pat myself on the back figuratively, so to speak, or reinforce something positive in my thoughts mentally about myself that I'm proud, that I actually did this, as opposed to just only holding yourself to that expectation and then every day you don't have a workout, you feel guilty and you're like, “Oh, I'm useless. Or, I forgot.” Or every time you derail from your diet or whatever, you're a failure, you make a mistake. It's also about encouraging yourself the times that you do well.

I think, I'm not little above my paygrade, but I think the science on this is conclusive too, that people respond better to positive reinforcements than they do to negative ones. I've tried to implement that in my own life and my professional life and my personal life as well. It's gone a long way. It's something I wish I did sooner.

[0:30:30.4] MB: Yeah. The research uses a lot of times the term self-compassion for all of that encompassing perspective on self-forgiveness and not beating yourself up. We have some really good episodes that go deeper in that that we'll throw into the show notes for the listeners. I want to change directions a little bit and talk about the decision-making process that comes out of poker. It's okay to use some examples from poker situations, but there's so many powerful lessons that you can learn about making decisions in uncertain conditions, where there's a lot of risk, where there's a lot of things at stake from poker that apply to such broad areas of life.

I know personally, it's been an incredible learning tool for me. I want to hear your perspective on some of the decision-making strategies and lessons that you've taken from poker that you have applied more broadly.

[0:31:23.5] AT: Big question and a good one. One of the things I think poker teaches you to do is to evaluate things based on the merit of the play and not the outcome. You can make the right decision and still lose the hand. That's something that's often hard for people to grasp, because I think we're taught that the efficacy of our decisions relates directly to the outcome. You move your pieces well on a chessboard, you win the game. You answer correctly on a test, you score very high.

This is not necessarily true in all areas of life, because there's randomness, there's luck, there's variance. You can make a poor decision like drinking and driving and get home safe, or you can make a great decision, like leaving a party early because you have to get up early the next day to study, or to spend your time doing something that you value more. That would be a good decision. You could also get into an accident on the way home.

I feel the response that people generally have is like, “Oh, I shouldn’t have left that party early, I never would have gotten in that accident.” Well, you didn't make a wrong decision for leaving the party, you just got unlucky, so to speak, that you maybe got on an accident, assuming you weren't drinking and driving and it wasn't your fault. That's a variance. That's randomness. This happens a lot too with things like – I think poker teaches you to think about the expectation of your decisions as well.

For example, also evaluating decisions based on their merit. For example, you hear people say all the time something like, “Oh, we all know smoking is bad.” Let's say on average, if you have a sample size – depending on how often and when they start. Let's just say on average, it takes 10 years off your life, right? I don't know the exact number, but let's just say it's 10 years. The decision to smoke has the expected value, the expectation of negative 10 years of life. Therefore, it's a bad decision.

Then you'll hear people using an N1 sample saying something like, “Well, my grandma smoked and lived to 90.” That doesn't make smoking a good decision, right? There's always these outlier examples that maybe she would have lived to 105. I don't know, but maybe it just doesn't affect everyone the same way. The point remains that the decision still has an expectation. Because you can't know the future, you don't know what's going to happen. You have to evaluate decisions based on their expectation. You do this in poker all the time.

You're at the table. You don't know which cards are going to come. You just calculate the probabilities and say, “Okay. Well, I'm expected to hit my flush 30% of the time. Therefore, I'm going to play the hand this way.” You could hit it four times in a row, but that doesn't change the fact that on the fifth time, the odds are still the same.

I think about life very much in the same way, even when it's evaluating things like, whether or not to run an ad campaign. You think, okay, what is the cost? What is the sale price and what is the expectation that you're going to gain per ad that you promote and all these sorts of things. I feel it really has helped me think about the way I see the world and the way I really strategize about making life decisions as well.

[0:34:41.0] MB: You brought up so many good points there that I want to dig into. The notion, there's even a subtle mental model that you shared with the example of the grandma, which is perfect. I want to unpack this idea of making decisions, or the fallacy of making decisions with an N of 1 and using these illusory examples.

The other piece of that which is so interesting that you mentioned, which is that you don't see the other outcome with something like that, right? You see somebody who's grandma smoked and lived to 90, but that might be masking the fact that she could have lived longer if she hadn't smoked. There's all of these hidden probabilities and outcomes that you don't necessarily see when you're only evaluating these really small, or individual sample sizes.

[0:35:24.3] AT: Yeah, it's so true. That's a great point. Another one that I've thought about too is that outcomes aren't binary, right? I was talking about this the other day to someone, where it was like, well you evaluate a situation and the expectation is that it's either going to happen, or not going to happen. For example, you are deciding whether or not to go to school and get a traditional job. That is considered a safe route, right? That's like okay, that's safe. Whereas, investing or being an entrepreneur and opening a startup is risky.

I think where people go wrong is they don't properly attribute the probability of each one of these outcomes and they just look at it like binary. One is safe, therefore, my risk is zero. The other one is risky, therefore my risk is a 100. We know that's not true. There are plenty of people that go to school and that can't get good jobs, or there's risks involved. There's college debt and there's – maybe they get fired from the job, maybe the company goes under, right?

I'm not saying that you should not go to school, do a startup. I'm just saying it's important that we attribute the proper risks and percentage, so to speak to each option that we have. It's not like these things are binary. There's some inherent risk in every decision we make. Nothing is a 100 or zero. It's not guaranteed that you're going to fail. A startup obviously, but so – your chance of success in one route may be 10%, the other out maybe 50%, but it's not zero and a 100. I think thinking in terms of the probability of an outcome is the best way to attribute an accurate answer to it.

I think poker really teaches you to do this, right? It's not I went all-in. I'm a 100% to win, or 0% to win. You win based on your probability. You're going to win the hand, let's say 70% of the time. 30% of the time, you're still going to lose, so you need to be prepared mentally, or financially, or whatever it is for that outcome. Then also, being more aware of the probabilities of decisions lets you better plan for them. If you know that you're to succeed in a certain path that you're going or a campaign, or whatever it is, only 70% to succeed, you could properly evaluate whether or not you want to take that risk. 70 is not a 100 and there's a huge, huge difference there. I think poker really helps people see that.

[0:37:57.1] MB: That's a great perspective. I like to think of it in terms of black and white, right? Most things in life are not black and white. There's all these shades of gray. Even if you're looking at something as a yes or a no, even if you just add in a maybe that it might happen, you've increased the amount of options by 50%.

Even if you expand to a field of there's a one out of 10 scale, right? You've essentially 5X the amount of decision-making clarity that you have and evaluating the outcomes of that perspective. The deeper and more granular you get in evaluating probabilities, the more effective and the better your decision-making gets.

[0:38:35.2] AT: Totally. That's a great one.

[0:38:39.8] MB: The most epic and life-changing thing that we've ever done at the Science of Success is about to happen. We're launching a live, in-person intensive just for you. This will be an intimate two-day deep dive in-person with me, where we will go over all the biggest lessons and greatest life-changing insights that I've personally pulled from years of interviewing the world's top experts on the Science of Success, and show you exactly how to specifically apply them towards exponentially achieving the goals that you have for your own life and business.

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Get more details and reserve your seat before we sell out at successpodcast.com/live. That's successpodcast.com/live. I can't wait to see you here in Nashville.

[0:40:18.4] MB: Well, the other thing that you mentioned earlier that I think is so important is that most people operate under the illusion that good decisions lead to good outcomes, but the real world is much messier than that. In business and life and investing, there's a huge amount of variance of noise, of sometimes opposite results that separate decision and outcome and it's really hard to get space and actually evaluate whether you made the right decision when you're letting the outcome cloud the evaluation of the decision process.

[0:40:53.8] AT: Yeah. I think people, typically radically in poker and I've noticed this in poker, which has made me reflect on this about life as well, but radically underestimate the role that luck plays. We like to think we're definitely responsible for all of our – everything that all of our successes and those sort of things. I think one thing that poker made me realize is just how lucky we are to even have that. That's something that I think most people just take for granted automatically. It's just like being dealt a winning hand is a prerequisite to succeeding in a lot of ways.

Some people beat the odds and aren't dealt as good of hands as other people. Arguably, they're all winning hands. The way I like to think about it is half the world was dealt a hand where they live on 250 a day or less, right? It’s just not something that anybody chose, that's just your starting two cards. That reality is very hard to rise up out of. Of course, there's some people that do it, but the odds are extremely stacked against you. If you are not part of that 50%, you're dealt a winning hand, you're born in the first-world and you do prosper to start a company and those sorts of things.

The luck preceded that, it gave you the at-bat. Of course, you have to make right decisions along the way and I think playing your hand well is ultimately going to manifest over time. I think we should be more grateful, and I include myself in this, but just be grateful for the incredible luck that has been bestowed on probably everyone listening. Just the fact that you're listening means you've already won.

Then I think people typically evaluate things in a short sample size. I think we typically are impatient, all of us to a large extent are impatient and we want to win in poker. We want to win during our next session. We lose one session, two sessions, three sessions in a row. We're like, “Uh, this sucks. I want to win now.” If you look, you zoom out and you look at things over a large enough sample, if you play your hands well and you make enough good decisions, the better players always win over time.

The thing is that people are evaluating their results in the short-term, in a short time window and in a short time period, anything could happen. Bad players can win. Good players can lose. Even events that happen in our lives can seem bad, if we label them that way when they happened in a short timeframe. Like you for example, get fired from a job. If you evaluate that in a timeframe of a week, you can place the label bad on that event that happened. If you zoom out and you don't know what's going to happen in the future, so it's very hard to label something as bad even if you do zoom out. If you look at your past, certain things that happen that you labeled as bad in the moment, like for example a breakup, probably ended up being good. It will be it painful and at the time, because it might have led you to find your current partner, or your wife and that you now have kids with or whatever, right?

I think we label things too often in the short-term, but ending out and looking at the big picture really helps create some space there and not make those events as painful to deal with. I think those are two other things that poker has made me reflect on really the role of luck and in life as well and that's really just made me a more grateful person.

Part of that was traveling to Southeast Asia when I lived in Macau, I was playing the biggest poker games in the world. We’re in Macau, and so I was living there playing. Traveling to Southeast Asia really made me realize firsthand about the former thing about being dealt a winning hand and just how many people worked. That's really helped me in poker when I feel down on my luck, I try and think about that. That no matter what happens to me at the poker table, I'm still running pretty good.

[0:44:37.2] MB: That's great perspective and a really powerful mental model that you can pull from poker and think about the world at large.

[0:44:47.0] AT: Yeah. I don't want to sound like some saint here. I have shitty days too. I have times when I'm frustrated, or stressed, or just complain about stupid things all the time. I try and again, at least have these systems that I can fall back on, or these theories that I know are true to help me in those tough times, because emotion like we talked about is a powerful force. I try.

[0:45:14.8] MB: Tell me a little bit about your strategy for prioritizing what's important in life.

[0:45:21.6] AT: Well, that's another big question. I have what I call a North Star. I've definitely didn't coined this term, but it's this guiding principle that I think are what is fundamentally important in my life. What are the things that I am going to use to base all my decisions on? What is the currency that I'm really trying to optimize for? For me, it's mainly about freedom, but also excitement and choices. When I think about whether or not I'm going to take on a new project, it could be easy without these defining principles to perhaps say yes for the wrong reasons. Most notably if it takes up an extreme amount of my time for a financial gain, I might be tempted to do it. If I look at what it's going to do in the construct of maybe locking me to a place for four years, I might think twice about it, because I realized that that won't fit into the lifestyle that I ultimately want to live and the things that I value.

I feel this helps in the macro with the big decisions that I make, but also in the micro. Even things like my spending priorities, for example. It's easy to I feel spend in areas that don't serve our highest needs. When I think about where I'm trying to channel a lot of my resources, it's mainly towards things that will give me more freedom. I know that if I am conservative and save, I can buy back my time and I can allocate more money towards things, like travel, which is fills a lot of the freedom element, but also the excitement element in my life.

I try and be cognizant of where things are going to better channel my resources, my time, money towards my highest priority items in life. That's some of the big-picture decision-making process that I go through.

[0:47:16.8] MB: In many ways, the lessons from poker, the decision-making strategies that we've been talking about have helped shape that perspective. It's so easy to get caught up in the minutiae of life and pulled in many different directions and reacting to everything that happens and all of the things that are going on, but it's so critical to come back to the center, to figure out what actually matters, what are your goals, what are your priorities, what's really important to you and not stray too far off that path, because most of us and I include myself in this, can easily get pulled in a million different directions.

If you don't figure out what really matters to you and walk a path towards it and put yourself back on that path every time you fall off, it's really, really easy to get off course.

[0:48:03.9] AT: Yeah. I've tried to like in poker, I always tell my clients and students, like before you make any bets, think about why you're making the bet and what you're trying to accomplish. I've really taken that to the bank when it comes to things that I'm trying to do in my life as well. Before I decide, like I'm writing a poker book for example. I’m in the process of doing it. I'll be done in [inaudible 0:48:27.7]. I really try to think about, like this is a big decision, right? It's going to lock a period of time and I'm going to have to put other projects on the side. I really try to think about how is this going to help me achieve my business goals, or my personal goals and where does this fit into the big picture plan.

I think without that process, it's easy to just let schedule, or time, or your attention be filled up with these almost arbitrary, miscellaneous things, right? It's almost whatever comes at you. You need a process for making these decisions. I think defining what people really want and what their North Star is an important process of it. Then it's about mapping really your actions and ambitions towards that, right? Making sure that the decisions you're making are getting you closer, not drawing you further away.

I see this quite often, where people aren't really matching these two things. For example, I had a lot of friends that say that their North Star is something like traveling often. Then they will do something that completely inhibits that, like spending a lot on a car, or on rent, or buying a dog, or all these things that seemingly make that aim a lot more difficult. They just do it getting caught up in peer pressure, or society, or emotion, or whatever it is. I feel just identifying what it is that's really important and then mapping all of those actions towards that big picture of is this going to help me get more of that, or less of that and is it worth that cost, or that sacrifice is a good starting point.

[0:50:06.9] MB: Great advice. For listeners who have been listening to this conversation, who want to concretely take action or implement something that we've talked about today, to be about prioritization, decision-making, emotions, whatever, what would be one piece of homework, or one action item that you would give them to start concretely taking action on something that we've discussed today?

[0:50:31.2] AT: Oh, man. I guess it just depends on what topic was the most exciting to them and where they found the most – what they’ve resonated the most with. I mean, it could be something as simple as taking up a meditation practice. It's something I would wish I could have told myself two decades ago. Or it could be something like just thinking about making logical decisions, instead of emotional ones, like asking yourself in the third-person what should Alec do in this moment. Should Alec eat this piece of cheesecake, or not? Maybe the answer is yes. It's not like you shouldn't ever do those things, but it's just understand, use that self-awareness to understand is this the right decision and why? Sometimes I do it. Why not?

Another thing could be getting clear about your personal goals. I find that the anchor of this whole thing is finance, right? Money is really a tool that gives you options. I think the best place to start is tracking your spending. One exercise that was extremely eye-opening that I did and I've done this in various countries that I’ve lived in different times of my life is just tracking every single dollar I spend. There's a great quote, I think it's by Peter Drucker, what gets measured gets managed. Actually, might not be by Peter Drucker. [Inaudible 0:51:47.0].

Anyway, that's definitely the quote. It might not be by the person. What gets measured, gets managed. It was really through tabulating every single dollar I spent and then categorizing that spending that I got clear on where every dollar was going. Just the process of doing it makes one more accountable and they'll find that they probably naturally spend less just by being accountable with their spending by writing it down and being forced to look at the spreadsheet at the end of the month, or whatever it is, whatever system you use. That really can help people channel their resources towards things that are more important to them. I think that's a great place to start.

I have worksheets that are free on AlecTorelli.com about how I do this and how I set goals and create an action plan and then map my spending and my daily steps and actions towards achieving those goals. That could be a resource for people that are looking to do that. Yeah, those are some good places to start.

[0:52:41.9] MB: I love that suggestion. Something so small and this idea of just starting with your budget, realigning your resources with what your actual goals are is a great concrete action step to beginning to align your life with what you want it to be.

[0:52:57.1] AT: Yeah. I find that it's going to be people almost in having clients, or people that have given me feedback and myself included when I've done this, there's almost always 20% or so of one's budget that's going towards things that aren't their highest priorities. They could usually cut that out and reallocate that and that could make a huge difference, if that whatever, $2,000 $3,000 a year is going towards, instead of a new iPhone, it's going towards a trip to Asia.

I mean, it could be as simple as that. Just don't upgrade you and your girlfriend's iPhone. Save $2,000 and wait an extra year and go to Asia. It could just be so simple. I mean, it could be more complicated. I mean, there's so many things that I feel are easy wins in the finance category. I would really implore everyone to try that out and there's going to be some eye-opening results there for people.

[0:53:43.3] MB: Alec, for listeners who want to find more of you, your work, your advice, etc., online, where can they do that?

[0:53:50.2] AT: I'm very active on social media, @AlecTorelli everywhere. I have a YouTube that has a lot of poker strategy and some lifestyle content as well. Conscious Poker YouTube, or Alec Torelli. Then AlecTorelli.com for my personal content.

If you want to learn poker strategy, Conscious Poker is my poker training site. You can go to ConsciousPoker.com and there's tons of resources to help people reach that next level in poker. That's a little bit of how to stay in touch. I probably Instagram, I'm pretty active on. Shoot me a DM, say hi and let me know you saw me on Matt's podcast. I'd love to say, hey, I'm very active on there.

[0:54:28.3] MB: Awesome. Well Alec, thank you so much for coming on the show, for sharing all this wisdom. I always enjoy digging into some high stakes poker.

[0:54:35.6] AT: Thanks, Matt. This was awesome. Appreciate you having me.

[0:54:37.8] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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November 21, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making, Money & Finance
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Why Aren’t You Asking? How To Get What You Want with Dr. Wayne Baker

November 14, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Influence & Communication, Decision Making

In this episode we unlock the POWER of ASKING. When you ask for what you need, miracles can happen, but so many of us are too afraid to really ask, or we feel like we don’t know how or what we should be asking for. How do you get better at ask? How can you tap the tremendous power and potential of the social capital within your network by using the power of asking? We answer these questions and much more with our guest Dr. Wayne Baker.

How to unlock the incredible power and potential of your network and the social capital

Dr. Wayne Baker is an American author and sociologist on the senior faculty of the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. He is best known for his research in economic sociology, and his survey research on values, where he documented Americans’ core values. He writes in both academic and popular media on this theme and is often invited to present his findings across the U.S.

  • What’s the difference between “paying it back” versus “paying it forward” - what’s the difference?

  • What is a kidney chain? And what can it teach us about the importance of “paying it forward?"

  • What is a reciprocity ring and how can it change the way you interact with your social network?

  • What is social capital?

  • The network that we are involved in and all of the resources that the network contains.

  • When you ask for what you need - miracles can happen

  • There is a wealth of opportunity at your fingertips - but you have to ASK for it!

  • What are the biggest reasons that people don’t ask for what they need? What stops you from asking for help on the most important things in your life?

  • Why is it so hard to ask for what we need?

  • How do we get better at asking?

  • What should you do if you aren’t clear about what you need? What should you do if you don’t know what to ask for?

    • Start with figuring out your goal. What’s your goal? What are you trying to achieve?

    • What resources do you need to achieve that goal? Money? Advice? Resources?

    • Then you have to figure out WHO to ask

    • Then you have to MAKE the ask

  • The “two step” method for asking for anything you want. You may not directly know someone, but you probably know someone who knows someone.

  • The “quick start method” for figuring out WHAT YOU NEED and ASKING FOR IT

    • I am currently working on ______ and I could use help to _______

    • One of my urgent tasks is to ______ and what I need is _________

    • My biggest hope is to _____ and I need to ______

  • Visioning - developing a detailed, vivid, description of a positive future. Then you start to identify the goals that are in that vision, that back that into request.

  • What is a SMART request?

    • Specific request. The more specific the better.

    • Meaningful and important. Why is it important to you? Don’t leave this out.

    • Actionable, action oriented. Ask for something to be done. A GOAL is not a request, a request is something that helps you move towards your goal (destination).

    • Realistic, but don’t hold back, aim big - stretch and make the biggest request you can think of, but it has to be realistically achievable

    • Time bound - when do you need it by?

  • People don’t know WHY you’re asking for something unless you EXPLAIN.

  • Research is very clear - the more specific your request, the more likely people are to help.

  • If you make a smart, well formulated request people are more likely to think you’re smart and competent.

  • People are more willing to help than you think they are.

  • Action item: Make a small request in a safe place.

  • Action item: Use the reciprocity ring or other tools to create structured ways to interact and ask.

  • How to integrate the “Stand Up” into your routines and meetings to structure asking into the natural rhythms of your work and life.

  • People are willing to help, they are willing to give, but you have to ASK - because people can’t read your mind

  • Life is about connection and asking is what jump starts the power of your connections.

  • Be a giver-request - be very generous and freely help other people even if they’ve never helped you, or can never help you in the future.

  • Freely give help and freely ask for what you need - this the most powerful mode of being.

  • Don’t be a lone wolf. Doing it all by yourself is a recipe for failure.

  • Overly generous giving, without ever ASKING for what you need - leads to burnout.

  • Homework: Apply the elements from the quick start method questions above to figure out what you need help with.

  • Homework: Assess where you are on the spectrum of giving and asking.

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Wayne’s Website

  • Wayne’s Wiki Page

  • Wayne’s LinkedIn

Media

  • Stanford Business - “Francis Flynn: If You Want Something, Ask For It” by Marguerite Rigoglioso

  • [UofM Faculty Profile] Wayne Baker

  • [Journal Article] “Emotional Energy, Relational Energy, and Organizational Energy: Toward a Multilevel Model” by Wayne E. Baker

  • [Journal Article] “Energize Others to Drive the Innovation Process” by Dr. Wayne Baker

  • Harvard Business Review - “The More You Energize Your Coworkers, the Better Everyone Performs” by Dr. Wayne Baker

  • HuffPost Article Directory

  • Read The Spirit - “Dr. Wayne Baker invites you and your friends to ‘Pay it forward!’” By David Crumm

  • Google Scholar - Article Citations

  • [Press Release] Givitas Launches to Help Companies Build “Giving Cultures,” Increasing Employee Engagement and Efficiency

  • Give and Take - “How to Ask for Help at Work” by Dr. Wayne Baker

    • “5 Ways to Help Your Staff . . . Ask for Help” by Dr. Wayne Baker

  • [Forbes] “How Asking For Favors Can Build Your Relationships” by Michael Simmons

  • [Podcast] Making Positive Psychology Work - Does Your Organization Need An Energy Boost? Podcast with Prof. Wayne Baker

Videos

  • Wayne’s YouTube Channel

  • Making A Thoughtful Request | All You Have to Do Is Ask | A Book By Wayne Baker

  • The Dilemma of Generosity In the Workplace | All You Have to Do Is Ask | A Book By Wayne Baker

  • TEDx Talks - The Paying it Forward Paradox | Wayne Baker | TEDxUofM

  • The Lavin Agency Speakers Bureau - The Power of Paying It Forward | Wayne Baker

  • The Lavin Agency Speakers Bureau - Building a Culture of Reciprocity | Wayne Baker

  • Leaders Connect - 2016/05/20-LeadersConnect-Dr Wayne Baker - Give & Get App

  • Leaders Connect - 2014/09/26 CEOConnect - Wayne Baker - United America

Books

  • All You Have to Do Is Ask: How to Master the Most Important Skill for Success by Wayne Baker

  • Achieving Success Through Social Capital: Tapping Hidden Resources in Your Personal and Business Networks by Wayne E. Baker

  • Networking Smart: How To Build Relationships for Personal and Organizational Success

  • by Wayne Baker

  • America's Crisis of Values: Reality and Perception by Wayne E. Baker

  • “United America” by Wayne Baker and Brian D. McLaren

  • Citizenship and Crisis: Arab Detroit After 9/11 by Wayne Baker, Sally Howell, Amaney Jamal, Ann Chih Lin, Andrew Shryock, Ron Stockton and, Mark Tessler

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the Internet with more than four million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we unlock the power of asking. When you ask for what you need, miracles can happen, but so many of us are too afraid to really ask, or feel like we don’t know how or what we should be asking for. How do you get better at asking? How can you tap the tremendous power and potential of the social capital within your own network by using the power of asking? We answer these questions and share some incredible strategies with our guest, Dr. Wayne Baker.

Are you a fan of the show and have you been enjoying the content that we put together for you? If you have, I would love it if you signed up for our e-mail list. We have some amazing content on there, along with a really great free course that we put a ton of time into called How To Create Time for What Matters Most In Your Life.

If that sounds exciting and interesting and you want a bunch of other free goodies and giveaways along with that, just go to successpodcast.com. You can sign up right on the homepage. That’s successpodcast.com. Or if you’re on your phone right now, all you have to do is text the word “smarter", that’s S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222.

In our previous interview, we showed you how to grow a business with no capital, no product and no service. We discovered how to train yourself to spot outrageous business opportunities surrounding you in everyday life and we gave you the strategies for building trust with your ideal clients and business partners. We asked what does it take to become great in your career, job, business and life. We looked exactly at how you can achieve greatness in those key areas. We discussed all of that and much more with our previous guest, Jay Abraham. If you want to start or grow a business but you don't have the money, capital or resources you need, listen to that interview.

Now, for our interview with Wayne.

[0:02:21.0] MB: Today, we have another exciting guest on the show, Wayne Baker. Wayne is an American author and sociologist on the senior faculty of the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. He's best known for his research in economic sociology and his survey research on values, where he documented America's core values. He writes in both academic and popular media on this theme, is often involved to present his findings across the US in various different media outlets. Wayne, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:02:47.5] WB: Thank you, Matt. Glad to be here.

[0:02:48.9] MB: Well, we're really excited to have you on the show today. There's so many interesting and important lessons from your work and your research that I want to dig into. I'd love to start out with a simple concept, which is the idea of paying it forward.

[0:03:04.3] WB: Paying it forward is one of the most powerful human principles. We can start with the idea of just paying it back. You help me and I help you in return, we call that direct reciprocity and that's important. You would want that to happen. Paying it forward is a little bit different, which is that you help me and I'm grateful and I pay it forward and help a third person. That turns out to be the most powerful form of reciprocity in a group, or an organization, or even in a community.

[0:03:32.8] MB: That's fascinating. The distinction between repaying a favor and helping someone who previously helped you, versus helping a stranger and passing it on is really fascinating. You hear about that in the sense of karma, or being a good person, or doing it because of the right thing, etc. There's actually some really fascinating research that comes out of that as well and some really interesting conclusions.

I know one of the things that you talk about that I'd never heard of that I thought was quite interesting was the idea of a kidney chain. Can you talk about that and maybe some of the other lessons from the research you've done around paying it forward as well?

[0:04:06.8] WB: Yeah. Kidney chain is a perfect example of paying it forward. There are many examples of this. Sometimes these chains are quite long. You have two kidneys and you could live a healthy life with only one. What did these change was started by a guy named Matt Jones. He lives here in Michigan. He decided that he wanted to change someone's life. He went through a process by which he volunteered to donate one of his kidneys to a complete stranger. The person who got it was near death, was on the verge of total kidney failure. Receiving that kidney saved that person's life.

Well, it turns out that person was married and the husband who would have donated his own kidney, but they weren't compatible, bond types, that sort of thing. Was so grateful that he said, “You know, I want to do the same thing and I'm going to pay forward one of my kidneys to another stranger.” You can imagine, this goes on and on and on and these chains are really quite long at this point. It's people feeling enormously grateful. The lives of their loved ones were saved and that motivates them to pay for it, one of their kidneys to someone else. It's really quite amazing and a testament to I think the goodness in humankind.

[0:05:22.9] MB: It's such a unique story. These kidney chains can get sometimes dozens of people long, right?

[0:05:29.8] WB: Oh, yeah. They really can. There are some hospitals that will help to facilitate the whole process. There are kidney registries, where people may get involved in it. It is interesting though, if you want to volunteer one of your kidneys, you would have to go through not only a physical examination that you're healthy enough to do it, but a psychological examination to try to uncover your motives, why did you want to do this. I find this really interesting. I suppose it's important to do that.

It’s interesting. We say, well, what's a person's motive for wanting to pay it forward? In the case of the chain that started here in Michigan, it was a person who said, “I really want to make a significant difference in someone's life,” and decided that was the way he was going to do it.

[0:06:14.1] MB: That was my next question. What drives people to help others, as opposed to hanging it back? The kidney chain is obviously one example of this. What happens in the world and to other people when we start to shift our approach towards paying it forward?

[0:06:33.8] WB: There's two explanations for paying it forward, what the motivations would be for doing that. One I mentioned, which is that you help me and I feel grateful for that help and I pay it forward and I help a third person. If you talk to economists, they'll say there's a more self-interested reason for helping, which is that I'm willing to help someone who has not helped me, because I want to look good. It's all about impression management. It's all about my reputation. I'm going to appear generous, so therefore, other people will be more likely to help me in the future.

Now that's fine and I have no problem with that. The interesting thing is that the research on these two different motivations, being I'm going to help someone who hasn't helped me to build my reputation that will make me appear as a generous person, I'll be helped in the future. Versus the idea of paying it forward out of gratitude. Those research has been done in two different streams. I did a study with Nat Buckley, where we put together both of those and ran what we call a horse race. We said, “Okay, we're going to collect a whole bunch of data and we're going to analyze statistically those two reasons, those two motivations and we control it for a host of other factors through all these statistical models.”

We're going to run this horse race. We're going to see which worse crosses the line first. I'll cut right to the finish line. It turns out that both horses cross the finish line, but the one that wins the race is the gratitude story, the idea that we pay it forward. We help people who haven't helped us, because we're so grateful for all the help that we have received from other people.

[0:08:01.4] MB: That's fascinating. The work that you've done around paying it forward and this may be, I don't know if I'm characterizing exactly correctly, but either led to or was a part of the creation, or discovery of what you call a reciprocity ring. Tell me a little bit about that and what are those and how do they work?

[0:08:24.6] WB: Yeah, reciprocity ring is a group level activity based on this whole principle of paying it forward. It was an activity that my wife, Cheryl, and I created about 20 years ago. We had an interesting conversation one evening. I'll never forget it. She said, “Okay, you teach your MBA students how to analyze their social networks.” I said, “Yup, that's what I do. That's what I know how to do.” She says, “Well, what do you do when they ask you how do I put this into practice and how do I build my network appropriately and how do I use my network?” I said, “Well, I have some stories and some antidotes and essentially, I hope the bell is going to ring and class would be over, because I don't have a whole lot.”

That centered a whole conversation about the idea of social capital. I think about human capital as our strengths, education, skills, the things that usually appear on your resume. Social capital is the network that we’re involved in and all the resources that it contains. I said, social capital is a combination of the networks that we have, but also this principle of generalized reciprocity, which is the fancy academic term for paying it forward.

We had a discussion about that and one thing led to another and we created a prototype of the reciprocity ring. After some trial and error, really settled on a formula or a recipe that really works quite well. I could describe it very briefly and will sound very simple, but there's a very structured way it has to be done. In fact, we train people to run a reciprocity domain, because they have to follow a certain recipe. Essentially, everyone gets an opportunity to make a request. We have criteria for what's a well-formulated request and that's something we might talk about later on in the show.

Everybody gets to make a request, but they spend most of the time helping other people meet their requests. Either they've got the answer, or the resource and they could share it, or they get tap their outside network and they could make a referral, or a connection. Those are the two ways that people can help. When people do this in a group, people discover that they get help from a lot of people, but it's not the people that they helped. It's more of this indirect generalized reciprocity, or paying it forward.

Now we do this in groups of about 24. I think over a 150,000 people around the world have used the reciprocity ring. It’s used in most of the major business schools, a lot of different companies. It was used recently at the Harvard Business School, where they had 900 MBAs engaged in this. We had about 40 different rings running at the same time. My favorite one and I think that's the most moving example of a request that was fulfilled was about a little girl who lived in Romania. Her name is Christina.

Christina suffered from a condition called craniosynostosis. The human skull is made up of different bones and they're joined by sutures, these fibrous tissues. This design allows the skull to expand as the brain and the head grow. Well every now and then, one of those joints or sutures will fuse prematurely and then the brain can't grow. The outcomes are awful. You can have a misshapen head, learning difficulties, blindness, seizures, even death.

Well, the chances of finding a surgeon who could correct this on Romania were pretty slim. This little girl's fate was up for grabs. Well, it turned out that her aunt Felicia lives in France and she works at the business school INSEAD. They used a reciprocity to ring every year for all their incoming MBA students. Part of being trained to run a ring, that's what Felicia was going to do, she was on the staff, she had to make a personal request. The trainer said, “Make sure it's meaningful. Something really important.”

She thought of her little niece back at Romania. Made a request for her, saying describe the whole situation and said, “I need help. She needs help.” Turns out that someone else who was in the reciprocity ring that day, who was also being trained, he was adjunct faculty, worked at a pediatric hospital and said, “I know surgeons who can do that operation. I'll introduce you.”

One thing led to another. Christina and her family flew for Romania to France. She had the surgery. It was a complete success and she's now living a happy and normal life. It's amazing. I have a picture of her that I keep on my desk to remind me of the power of asking for what you really need. When you do, miracles can happen, just like that story with Christina.

[0:12:47.7] MB: Wow. That's a really moving story and a great demonstration of the power of reciprocity rings. It really demonstrates a point you made earlier that everybody's network –every single person's network has a tremendous amount of untapped potential, or as you called it social capital that we're just not fully maximizing.

[0:13:12.4] WB: Oh, absolutely. What I've learned over the years is that there is a wealth of resources out there just beyond your fingertips. The only way you can get to it is by asking. That turns out to be the crux of the problem, is that most people are very reluctant to ask for what they need. There's a lot of reasons for it. There's eight reasons, in fact, of why it's hard to ask. Some of those are just incorrect beliefs. I can give you a couple of examples.

Sometimes, we don't ask because we're afraid we're going to look foolish, or incompetent, or that we can't do our jobs. You don't want to ask a trivial request, because then that's not going to raise your perceptions of your confidence. What the research shows and this was done by a team of researchers from Harvard and Wharton, they found that as long as you make a thoughtful, intelligent request, people will think you are more competent, not less. People fear that asking is going to make them appear to be incompetent.

As long as it's a good request, it’s a thoughtful request people will say, “Hey, you're confident. You know your limits.” You don't keep banging your head against the wall, working on a problem where it could be solved much more effectively and easily by reaching out to your network and getting some help from other people.

Another barrier is that we often underestimate other people's willingness and ability to help by a really big factor. One of my favorite studies was done by Frank Flynn and his team when they were at the Columbia University. They decided to test this with a field experiment, which is they were going to send people who are participating in the study out into New York City to do this. They had to go to a stranger and ask to borrow their cellphone. That's all they could say. They said, “Could I borrow your cellphone to make a call?” They couldn't explain, or beg, or plead, or come up with a sob story. That's all they could do.

It was really interesting, Matt. A number of the people who signed up for this experiment and you get paid for doing it, for participating. When they discovered what it was about, they quit and they said, “There's no way I'm going to go do that. I'm not going to walk in through a stranger in New York and ask to borrow a cellphone.” Some people did participate in the study. Before they went out, the researchers asked them, “Well, how many people do you think you're going to have to ask before you get a phone?” They were saying, “Five, six, seven, 10, infinite number of people, I'll never get one.” Well, it turns out that you only have to ask one or two strangers now.

If the first person doesn't let you use their phone, the second person probably will. There's a lot of other studies that support that that we often don’t ask because we think no one can help us. In fact, people have lots of resources. They have great networks and people are very willing to help, but they could only help you if you ask.

[0:15:56.5] MB: A really powerful lesson. I want to dig into a lot of the things around more about why we don't ask and also how we can start to really put together well-formulated requests and ask. Before we begin to that, I want to circle back and just hear one or two other stories to really impact this and show people the power that the untapped potential that lays within their networks. Tell me one or two other outrageous examples of things that have been fulfilled from using something like a reciprocity ring exercise.

[0:16:28.8] WB: Well, I recall one time that I was running the reciprocity ring for General Motors here in Michigan. It was a diverse group of people. There was a senior engineer who made a request for help for expertise to solve this complex engineering problem. It had something to do with aluminum extrusion. I have to confess, I had no idea what he was talking about, but other people did. This request was for an expert to help him solve that problem.

The help came from the most unlikely source, which was a 22-year-old admin who had just been hired by the company. You might wonder, I mean, how could that person actually help? Well, it turned out that her father was the world's expert in that particular technology. He had recently retired. His wife was encouraging him to spend more time outside of the home. There was plenty of opportunity there. What she did, she introduced that senior engineer with her father. They got together and they solved this complex technological problem.

You never would guess that it would be a 22-year-old admin that would be that link or the connection. Again, people know lots of things and they know lots of people and you never know until you ask. I could give you another example. I remember a completely a different industry, this is in big pharma. They're trying to discover blockbuster drugs and they work in these big drug development teams.

I was running an event for a group of these scientists, they’re MD, PhD scientists. One person said, “I’m about to pay an outside vendor $50,000 to synthesize a strain of the PCS alkaloid.” Again, I didn't know what he was talking about, but I looked that one up. It turns out that alkaloids come from plants and could be used to make drugs. Well, another person was participating said, “Huh, I had no idea that you had that need.” Why? Because people don't ask. They said, “Now that I know, I could Slack you in – I have Slack capacity in my lab. I can slot you in next week and do it for free. It won't cost you $50,000. It won’t cost our employer $50,000.” They saved all that money and they made a very helpful connection inside of this group. There are lots and lots of stories like that, of the most unlikely things become possible when people ask for what they really need.

[0:18:48.6] MB: Let’s circle back to asking. You touched on a few of the things that prevent people from asking. What have you seen and what does the research shown to be the biggest barriers that people face when – what is causing people for example, to drop out of a study because they're so terrified to ask for something as simple as borrowing somebody's phone, what are the things that motivate people not to ask for what they really need?

[0:19:14.5] WB: A lot of times it's fear of rejection, fear that people are going to say no. Once you realize that most people would say yes if you ask, that can be very liberating. One thing is correcting our beliefs about people's willingness and ability to help. That would be an important thing to do. Another is to realize that you need to learn how to make a thoughtful request. Sometimes people don't know what to ask, or how to ask.

There's been many times when I've run events over the years where people have said to me, they take me aside and they said, “You know, I've always wanted to be in a group of people who are really helpful and generous and well-connected and be able to ask for anything that I want and I can't think of a thing.” This happens all the time. I realized that a lot of times what stands in the way, we don't ask because we're not clear about what we need.

There's a process by which you can do this. At first, you need to figure out why you're asking, what's the goal, what are you trying to achieve? There's different methods for doing that. Once you have a sense of what your goal is, what you're trying to achieve, then you think, okay, with that goal in mind, what resources do I need? What resources would be helpful? Do I need information, advice? Do I need an opportunity? Do I need a introduction, a connection? Do I need someone to sit down or brainstorm with me? Do I need a second opinion on a project, whatever it might be?

You've got the goal. You're trying to solve some problem. You have a request for a resource that you need and then you have to figure out who to ask. Sometimes, we stop ourselves by only asking our close friends, or our inner circle. Now they'll help you if they can, but it's sometimes a lot more powerful to reach out outside of that inner circle. For example, there's a method that I call the 2-step method. It could be that I don't know who to ask, but I know someone who probably does know someone who has the answer. I can ask that person to pay that request forward and connect me with that person. That's a way of reaching experts for an example.

Then finally, you have to make the ask. Let's figure out the goal, that's the destination. Figure out the request, what is it that you need? Figuring out who to ask and then going ahead to make the ask. People go through that process. It gets a little bit easier. I mentioned that there are different methods for figuring out goals or requests. There's one that I call the QuickStart method and I can share a couple of parts of that with you.

It's a bunch of sentence completions. For example, I am currently working on X and I could use help to Y. If you think about that, what am I currently working on? Writing that down and then saying, “Okay, what can I use help for?” Another one would be, one of my urgent tasks is to X and what I need is Y. That would be another example.

There's a friend of mine who is making a transition and becoming an independent consultant. His name is Chris. He said, “One of my urgent tasks is to figure out if should I incorporate, should I be an LLC, should I be a sole proprietorship?” He figures, that's one of my urgent tasks. I got to form the company. What I need is I need to talk to a tax attorney. I need to talk to a lawyer who can help me figure out different corporate forms and so forth. It was going through that process really helped them to think about what is it that I'm trying to achieve and then what do I need to achieve that and then who can I ask?

A third one might be my biggest hope is to X and I need to Y, whatever that might be. I like that one, because we often don't stop and think about what are our greatest hopes and aspirations in life? What are the things that would be helpful in reaching those? Another method is to use what we call visioning. Visioning is developing a detailed, vivid picture of a positive future. When people do this, it's usually a couple of pages long. It takes a while to do. If you have that detailed vision, inspiring image of the future you're trying to create for yourself, then you can identify a bunch of goals that are in that vision, back that out to different requests that you could ask and then figure out who to ask and so forth.

[0:23:31.1] MB: Those are some amazing exercises. I love how practical and specific they are, very easy to start implementing even immediately. One of the interesting meta lessons that comes out of this is this importance of figuring out what you're really trying to achieve, figuring out what matters to you and as some people call it, beginning with the end in mind. If you know what you want to achieve and you have clarity around that, then it becomes much clearer around what resources and people and things you need to start asking for and tapping your network for to achieve that goal.

[0:24:07.5] WB: Absolutely. You need to start with the destination. Where are you trying to go? What are you trying to achieve? I mentioned the QuickStart method and visioning as another way of doing it a little bit more involved. Once we have that in mind and you're thinking about the resources, there are also criteria for making what we call a smart request. Now I use smart in a different way than it is typically used, so we'll spend a moment or two talking about that.

The S is for specific. You want to make a very specific request. The most general request I ever heard was made by an executive from the Netherlands who said, “My request is for information.” That was it. I said, “Wow, can you elaborate?” He said, “No, I can't. It’s confidential.” Well, he didn't get any help, because no one can help with a request like that. He did turn out to be pretty generous. He helped other people, but he didn't get any help for whatever his request was going to be.

S is for specific. The M is for a meaningful. Sometimes in traditional smart criteria, the M means measurable and measurable is nice. I mean, meaningful and important to explain why it's important, why are you making the request. I found that people often leave that out. They figure that if I make it a request, people will assume that it's important, otherwise I wouldn't be making it. People don't know why you're asking, unless you explain. That's very, very important. The why really motivates people to help you.

The A is for action, or action-oriented. You want to ask for something to be done. A goal is not a request. A goal is a destination. A request is something that helps you move towards that destination, so you want to ask for something to be done. Then the R is for real or realistic. It can be a small request, as long as it's real that is meaningful and important. You want it to be realistic, but I wouldn't want people to hold back because of that.

I think about the story I said about Christina who had craniosynostosis and needed a surgeon who could correct this – into this condition. You want to stretch, you want to make big requests, but they do have to be realistic. If your request is to colonize the moon tomorrow, that's not going to happen. You want to make sure that it is realistic. That balance is the inspirational or inspiring part.

Then the T is for time, time-bound. When do you need it by? What we have found is that if you hit all five criteria, all smart criteria, people are a lot more likely to respond. I've also discovered that this works with your boss, it works with peers, it works with friends. I have a teenage son and I discovered that it works with him as well. I don't use the method with him that my father used with me, which was, “You'll do this because I told you so,” which gets compliance, but not engagement. Engagement is that you're doing it willingly.

I try to use a to explain why I'm asking him to do something. Most of the time, he's then willing to do it, because he understands why it's important, why he needs to do it and why it would be a good thing.

[0:27:05.1] MB: Love those criteria. It's really important to underscore this notion that the more specific your request is, the more specific the ask is, the higher probability you have of achieving it. If you have a broad nebulous general goal, it's not going to be as effective when you make an ask for one of the resources or things that you need to move towards that destination.

[0:27:27.0] WB: Yeah. People often think the opposite. If you make a general request that people are more likely to help, but the research and experience shows that that's simply not true. I can give you another example, a personal one. This goes back a number of years, but our 10th wedding anniversary was coming up and I asked my wife what would you like to do. That's a big one. Well, at that time we were big fans of Emeril Live, which is one of the Food Network's celebrity chef shows in New York City and she said, “I'd love to be on that show for our anniversary.”

We tried to get tickets to be on that show and it's more likely to get hit by lightning and win the lottery on the same day than to get on that show. I said, “Well, I don't know. I'll see what I can do.” I had an opportunity. I was running a program for orientation for our incoming business school students, so there's 500 people. Faculty were being piped in on these big jumbo Trons to lead different sessions on different topics. I was doing a variation of this idea of asking and giving. I decided to make a request, which was related to my wife's wish to be on Emeril Live in New York City.

I explained. I used the smart criteria. I mean, the M there is really important. Now a lot of the students were not married, but they remember their parents’ significant anniversaries and how important they were. Some of them were married and they knew the importance personally of anniversaries and the celebrations. Well to my amazement, three or four people came forward. Somebody knew someone who was dating Emeril's daughter, so that's totally true, but it didn't work because they broke up.

The connection that did work was to Emeril’s segment producer on Good Morning America. At that time, he would occasionally do a Friday morning show on Good Morning America. This MBA student and his wife were really good friends with the segment producer and he said, “Look, I'll put you in touch with that person.” It was all done by e-mail and they were going to New York to at least meet Emeril on that particular show. We did. He was really, a really very nice, very friendly guy. Later on, we got tickets to go over to the Food Network. Now that was a total surprise. We thought just meeting him would be enough.

We go across town, we go to where they film the Food Network, turns out that he gave his VIP passes. We’re right up front. To make this even better, it turned out that they were filming the show for the upcoming Valentine's Day. Now this is for our anniversary. I had no idea we were going to be on the show. Of course, I had no idea what the show was going to be about and it turned out to be about Valentine's Day and could not be more appropriate for celebrating our anniversary. It was really, really a highlight. Again, it underscores that idea of asking for what you really need.

I remember afterwards where everyone's leaving and people came up they said, “How did they find you?” I said, “We found them by asking.” Again, it underscores that idea and the importance of asking for what you really need.

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[0:31:44.6] MB: You've shared some amazing tactics for the mechanics of how to formulate better asks, how to figure out what you want to ask for. I'm curious about the psychological barriers. How have you helped people, or what have you uncovered in your work or research around overcoming the fear of rejection, the fear of imposing on others or seeming selfish? How do you help people get past those psychological things that even if we know how to make great request, may stop us from actually making it?

[0:32:14.8] WB: There's two things, education and action. Part of what I try to do is to go through all the reasons why people are reluctant to ask and then to show what we know from research. When you realize if you make a smart, well-formulated request, a thoughtful request, people are more likely to think you're competent, not less competent. I mean, that's liberating for people. When you learn that most people are willing to help if you ask, that's liberating as well, but that's only half of it.

The other half is action. You actually have to do it. There I recommend two things; one, make a small request in a safe place. That could be at home, or it could be with your friends, or it could be at a community organization. Maybe it's at work, maybe it's not. I’d say start with something small and make sure it's a safe place.

The other thing you can do in terms of action is to use some of the tools, like the reciprocity ring. There's many others in which asking is the ticket of a mission. It's easier to ask if you know that everyone has to make a request, everyone's in the same psychological boat, so to speak. I'll give you another example, another really good practice is called the stand-up. The stand-up is widely used at IT and software development firms and I think it has enormous potential for any group.

In a stand-up, you'll have the people in a group or in a team would literally stand up say at 10:00 every morning, stand in a circle and they quickly go around and each person has to say three things. Here's what I worked on yesterday, here's what I'm working on today and this is the help that I need. The help is followed up with later on. Now it doesn't take very long to do that, but it's a requirement. Those are the three things you're supposed to ask about. Knowing that makes it a lot safer and knowing that everyone's going to make a request makes it a lot safer, get everyone in the same boat.

We use that for example at our Center for Positive Organizations. We're not an IT firm. What we do at our center is apply positive psychology to build thriving workplaces, thriving organizations. We try to practice what we preach. Every morning, the staff will have their daily stand-up. They'll stand in a circle and they'll answer those three questions; what I worked on yesterday, what I'm working on today and the help that I need.

[0:34:30.3] MB: That's a great strategy. It's important, that lesson also underscores this idea that it's important to integrate these lessons and the framework of creating structured opportunities for asking into your work and into your life. If you do that, you can start to uncover not only ways that you can find help for yourself, but also ways that you can start to help others across your network.

[0:34:57.3] WB: Yeah. You don't have to be the team leader, or the CEO to start doing this. You could propose these methods. If you're in a group or a team you could say, “Hey, I learned about this idea of a stand-up, or the reciprocity ring and there's a dozen others.” Say, “Let's give it a try.” When then people do, I always encourage them to give it a try for at least 30 to 45 days and to expect some reluctance in the beginning. You know what, people start, they'll start small and they’ll make safe requests, as long as everyone gets to make one. Over time, they start to see the power of this. What I've seen is that people start making bigger and bigger requests. Then that's where things really begin to pay off.

You've got to make that commitment for 30 or 45 days, because at the beginning, people will be a little bit reluctant. You don't want people to stop before they really had a chance to experience the power of doing this. We could also do this in our daily lives. Whenever we meet someone and interact with someone, say hello to someone, every one of those encounters is an opportunity to listen to that person and to think about how you can help that person. You can start the chain that way. Or to think about what is it that you really need and be willing to ask for. Again, try something safe. Try something small and you'll see through action and experience over time how valuable it really is.

[0:36:16.9] MB: What are some of the different styles or ways of asking and do people fall into different camps and categories?

[0:36:25.0] WB: I think sometimes, people they jump to asking too quickly without thinking it through. They're not really clear about the goal they're trying to achieve and they haven't taken the five smart criteria into account. You really want to be thoughtful. You don't want to jump in too quickly. That said, it can be done very casually. It doesn't have to be a formal presentation, or something that's stilted. It can be in a very casual conversation, but to explain why you're making a request, what you need, when you need it by and to give people the opportunity to do the same with you.

Again, you could start that paying it forward at any place. You can start by helping someone, you can ask them what they need. That's another way to start. Say, “Hey, I see you're working on that, whatever that project is. I read something I think might be useful to you. Here's a link to it.” Or, “That gave me an idea. Do you want to sit down? We could talk about that.” You can volunteer to help. That starts a chain, as well as asking for what you need.

[0:37:25.3] MB: Another really important lesson that comes out of all this and coming back to what you just talked about, this notion of paying it forward is that the request is the catalyst that sets off these chains of generosity. You can create a huge amount of really immeasurable, positive impact across your personal, work, social networks by requesting things from people, because that gives them an opportunity to be generous.

[0:37:56.4] WB: Absolutely. What we found is that people are willing to help. They're willing to give. They're willing to be generous, but they can't read your mind. They don't know what you need until you make a request. I think of giving and receiving as a cycle, that there's no giving without receiving, there's no receiving without giving and the catalyst, or the driver is always to ask, always to request. That starts the whole process, the whole cycle turning.

[0:38:23.8] MB: The lessons that you share here are so important. The idea that if we're just willing to ask, that our networks, our friends, our social infrastructure has so much untapped potential is something that could be in many cases and both the research and the examples you've shared transformative to your life, if you're just willing to put yourself out there and ask for help.

[0:38:52.6] WB: It is really true. The research shows that the experience we've had over many years now shows that to be true as well. People are surprised when they engage in some of these activities and exercises to really learn how powerful it is. We're brought up sometimes to really focus on individual achievement and accomplishment. When you think about the test that you took in school, or you had to take the ACT or the SAT. Those are things you all did, you did that by yourself. You fill out your college application by yourself, everything about you that's going to get you into the school that you want to go to, or the job that you're applying to.

In reality, life is about connection and collaboration. It's really about the network. Everyone needs input, everyone needs an inflow of resources of ideas, opportunities, a brainstorming, someone to listen to, even emotional support. We need those resources, we need to in-flow of those resources to really be productive. I say that people should be what I call a giver-requester.

A giver is someone who is very generous, who freely helps other people even if they've never helped them, or will probably never help them in the future. They’re just generous and they help other people. They make requests for what they need, so freely help and freely ask for what you need. Now we found that in our studies, only about 10% of people are in that category of being giver-requesters.

There's a much more common category, which is the overly generous giver. The overly generous giver is someone who freely gives, but doesn't ask for what they need. Now they're very well-regarded, they're held in high esteem, because they're so generous, but their performance suffers and their productivity declines, because they're not getting the inflow of all the resources that they need to be productive.

Now another type is called the selfish taker. Now there actually isn't a lot of these people. There's some. The selfish taker is someone who doesn't help, who is not generous, who asks for what they need. What we found there is that their productivity and performance declines over time as well, because people stopped helping them, because you've got to give back, you've got to pay it back and you've got to pay it forward. Over time, people will see that that person's not so generous, and so they'll stop helping that person.

Then the fourth is probably the saddest one of all, it's the lone wolf, or the isolated person, the person who tries to do it all by themselves, who never asks for what they need and doesn't help other people. I call that a sad state of affairs, because you're really disconnected from the community, you're disconnected from the network. The best place to be is to be a giver-requester, someone who generously helps other people and freely asks for what you need.

[0:41:43.8] MB: That's a great place to be. In many ways, in my opinion at least, helps us wage the concern, or the risk, or the fear, or the psychological barriers that might stop you from asking for something if you're putting yourself out there and giving and helping freely, then you by every right should feel justified in asking for whatever help you need as well.

[0:42:06.8] WB: Yeah, that's right. I like to say that asking is a privilege earned by helping, by giving. Another thing I could say about the overly generous giver is that that's where you find a lot of burnout. In fact, there's an organization for women executives that I work with from time to time in Chicago and they have seminars a couple of times a year and I participate in some of those. I'll talk about the importance of being generous, the importance of generosity, of giving, of helping and invariably, these executives will say, “I give all the time and I'm totally burned out.”

Before I could say anything, all of a sudden it clicks and they go, “And I just realized that I don't ask for what I need.” Just being generous and never asking will lead to burnout. The remedy, or the solution to that is to start asking for what you need. You think about if you've been generous and you've helped all these different people, you've got a big network of people out there who are super motivated to help you and they want to hear from you. In fact, you're denying the power of reciprocity by not asking for what you need. Not only do have permission to ask, you've earned the privilege of asking by being so generous.

[0:43:16.2] MB: For listeners who want to concretely implement one of the things we've talked about today, you've shared some tremendous action steps and implementable things, what would be one piece of homework that you would give them to take a first step and to start asking for what they need?

[0:43:33.7] WB: Well if I could suggest two. One would be to apply some of the elements from the QuickStart method as a way of getting started. That's I am currently working on X and I could use help to Y. One of my urgent task is to X and I need to Y. One of my biggest hopes is to X and I need to Y. If you fill in the blanks there, that's going to get you a long way down the road to figure out what you really need.

Then the other is to assess where you are. Are you a giver-requester? Are you overly generous giver, or one of the other two types? We've created an assessment that is available for free for anyone who would like to take the assessment. It will give you scores on each of those dimensions. How do you rank on giving and on asking? You really get to see where you are and sometimes that assessment could be a big motivation to figure out what you need to do. Like, “Maybe I am an overly generous giver and I need to ask.” Even taking the assessment helps you figure out some of the things that you can ask for.

[0:44:39.1] MB: For listeners who want to find you and your work online, what is the best place for them to do that?

[0:44:44.6] WB: The best place would be to go for the website for my new book All You Have To Do Is Ask, and that's where could find the free assessment as well. The website address for that is simply the title of the book, so www.allyouhavetodoisask.com. There you can learn more about the book. You can take the free assessment and there's other resources there as well.

[0:45:07.0] MB: Well Wayne, thank you so much for coming on the show, for sharing some incredible stories, some interesting research and some great, action-packed action strategies for people to really begin implementing this in your life.

[0:45:18.9] WB: Well, thank you Matt. It's been a pleasure and I've really enjoyed our conversation.

[0:45:22.6] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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Don't forget, if you want to get all the incredible information we talk about in the show, links transcripts, everything we discussed and much more, be sure to check out our show notes. You can get those at successpodcast.com, just hit the show notes button right at the top.

Thanks again, and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.

November 14, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Influence & Communication, Decision Making
Robert Greene-04.png

Robert Greene: Do You Think You’re In Control? Think Again.

October 17, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making, Weapons of Influence

How did one of the greatest geniuses of all time lose his life savings overnight? Despite our illusions of rationality, even the most brilliant humans are not rational at all. We tell ourselves that it’s always the other person who is irrational, envious, and aggressive, and that it’s never us. But science shows that all of our brains are remarkably similar, sculpted by evolution to have baked in biases and bad habits. No one is exempted from the laws of human nature. In this episode we explore the path that all the world’s greatest strategists have used to master their own irrationality and achieve mastery with our legendary guest Robert Greene.

Robert Greene is an author known for his books on strategy, power, and seduction. He has written six international bestsellers: The 48 Laws of Power, The Art of Seduction, The 33 Strategies of War, The 50th Law, Mastery, and The Laws of Human Nature. In addition to having a strong following within the business world and a deep following in Washington, DC, Greene’s books are hailed by everyone from war historians to the biggest musicians in the industry (including Jay-Z, Drake, and 50 Cent).

  • How one of the greatest geniuses of all time lost his life savings overnight. Could it happen to you?

  • Even the most brilliant people on the planet struggle to understand human nature.

  • Despite our illusions of rationality, humans are not rational at all - we are governed by our emotions.

  • We are born irrational, we are governed by our emotions.

  • You think you are in control. You’re not.

  • To be rational requires deep work and training.

  • All the most important neuroscientist make the same point - that the most primitive parts of our brain - the limbic system - gives off hormonal and electrical signals that are much more powerful than anything coming from the neocortex or cerebral cortex.

  • Fear is a viral emotion that leads to a lot of irrationality.

  • You really are a stranger to yourself. There’s a stranger inside of you.

  • The journey is not just about understanding others, but it really begins with self awareness and understanding yourself.

  • If you learn how to alter your attitude and approach people with a more open spirit it could transform your life.

  • Many forces from evolution that are wired into our brains used to be adaptive, now they can be dangerous and even counter productive

  • These primitive elemental forces form the cornerstones of human nature

  • Are the emotions that you’re feeling actually from your life? Did they come from you or did they come from other people?

  • We need to be independent, we need to think for ourselves, we need to gain control of our emotional responses.

  • You need to be able to form a reasonable, rational plan for yourself , your life, your business

  • You can’t begin to be a rational strategist in life until you are aware of your own emotions

  • Our brains are remarkably similar. No one is excepted from these laws.

  • The systems and ways your brain function are predictable.

  • It begins with humility. Turn your internal self absorption around.

  • Rationality is being aware of your irrationality. Being aware of the emotions that govern your decisions.

  • Step back. Cultivating the ability to step away, to pull out of tunnel vision, to see a bigger picture, is a cornerstone of rational thinking and strategic thinking.

  • You will never become a rational strategist until you come to terms with the fact that you are governed by emotions.

  • The brain operates by simplifying information - we often don’t have access to the SOURCE of our feelings and emotions.

  • You’re not aware of how other people perceive you. You’re stuck in your own tunnel vision of your own thoughts and preoccupations.

  • Stop reacting and have a more detached view towards life. What makes you react all the time is that you’re locked inside of yourself - you’re not paying attention to others. You’re not paying attention to your own emotions.

  • You can’t succeed in this world if you’re bad with people.

  • Understanding other people makes your life “1000x easier"

  • One of the most important decisions in your life is who you choose to partner with - who you choose to keep very close to you. And we often make the worst decisions in these areas because our decision making is clouded with emotion.

  • Absorb your mind in the thoughts, experiences, and world's of other people.

  • You need other people to do anything in life. Investing in the skill of influencing them is one fo the most powerful things you can invest in.

  • Focus on and be deeply interested in other people. Want to understand their perspective and where they are coming from.

  • The ability to understand people deeply actually makes it easier to deal with toxic people.

  • How you can soften people’s resistance by confirming their self opinion

  • How LBJ was a master influencer and could melt away anyone’s defensiveness

  • Respond to people as they ARE not as you want them to be

  • We often mistake the appearance of people for their reality. If someone seems extremely convinced and confident, we think they must be correct. The truth is, the more convicted someone is about an idea, the more you need to be suspicious - because they are likely covering up their own weaknesses and insecurities.

  • Your natural tendency as you get older is for your mind to close up.

  • Open, curious, having a mindset of discovery and openness is much more powerful than a deeply convicted rigid mindset. Having a rigid perspective is destroying your mind.

  • A creative mind is incredibly flexible. That’s the quality of any truly great artist, entrepreneur, or political figure.

  • Accept and realize that you don’t understand the world, you often don’t even truly understand yourself. What you think you know will probably be considered ridiculous in several centuries. Have humility and curiosity and open. Don’t be so sure of what you think you know.

  • Assume formlessness - be like water. It’s one of the oldest ideas in strategies.

  • It’s the path that ALL of the great strategists in life have followed. Do you want power, creativity, success, and influence? OPEN UP YOUR MIND.

  • Homework: Use a journal or simply do a thought experiment in your own head - in the course of a day you will feel many different emotions - dig into those emotions and understand what is going on with yourself and your own emotions. Try to find one moment, one emotion, and think about the root cause, think about where that emotion comes from. Where does it REALLY come from? Question. Dig. Think before your act. Try to come up with one little nugget about yourself and why you feel that way and analyze it instead of giving into it.

  • When meditating - ask yourself “Why are you thinking that, you don’t have to worry about that right now?” when a random thought comes up.

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Robert’s Website

  • Robert’s Twitter and Facebook

  • Robert’s Wiki Page

Media

  • Author Directory on Medium, Big Think, HuffPost, and Thought Catalog

  • Thrive Global - “3 Things I learnt from Speaking with Robert Greene” by Mila DeChant

  • Daily Stoic - “An Interview with the Master: Robert Greene on Stoicism” by Ryan Holiday 

    • The Laws Of Human Nature: An Interview With Robert Greene

  • [Book Review] Quartzy - “The big new book on all your flaws and how to turn them around” by Ephrat Livni

  • My Morning Routine - Robert Greene’s Morning Routine

  • The Telegraph - “Why Robert Greene isn't who you think” by Helena de Bertodano

  • Blinkist Magazine - “10 Lessons in Human Nature I Learned From Robert Greene” by Ryan Holiday

  • Quilette - ““Stop Assuming that Everything You Feel or Think Is Right”—An Interview with Robert Greene” by Ryan Holiday

  • [Podcast] The Learning Leader Project - Episode #287: Robert Greene (Part 1) – 5 Strategies For Becoming A Master Persuader

    • Episode #288: Robert Greene (Part 2) – The Laws Of Human Nature

  • [Podcast] Chase Jarvis - Harnessing Your Human Nature for Success with Robert Greene

  • [Podcast] The Knowledge Project w/ Shane Parrish - Alive Time vs. Dead Time: My Conversation with Robert Greene [The Knowledge Project Ep. #35]

  • [Podcast] Jordan Harbinger - 117: Robert Greene | What You Need to Know about the Laws of Human Nature

  • [Podcast] Lewis Howes - EP. 713 THE KEY TO LIFE IS RELATIONSHIPS

  • [Podcast] The Art of Charm - Robert Greene | 7-Year Anniversary Special (Episode 250)

  • [Podcast] Finding Mastery - ROBERT GREENE: MASTERY & RESEARCH

Videos

  • Talks at Google - Robert Greene: "The Laws of Human Nature" | Talks at Google

  • Robert Greene: "Mastery" | Talks at Google

  • Joseph Rodrigues - The Laws of Human Nature by Robert Greene (Study Notes)

  • Goalcast - How To Change Your Attitude And Transform Your Life (Powerful Speech) | Robert Greene | Goalcast

  • Illacertus - The 48 Laws of Power (Animated)

    • THE ART OF SEDUCTION BY ROBERT GREENE | ANIMATED BOOK SUMMARY

  • TEDx Talks - The key to transforming yourself -- Robert Greene at TEDxBrixton

  • Tom Bilyeu - How to Master Your Dark Side | Robert Greene on Impact Theory

  • Valuetainment - Laws of Human Nature Dissected by Robert Greene

  • Absolute Motivation - 99.9% Of Successful People Do This | Robert Greene (Realist Speech)

  • SiriusXM - 50 Cent: Robert Greene Gave Me The Best Advice // SiriusXM

Books

  • [Amazon Author Page] Robert Greene

  • The Years of Lyndon Johnson: The Path to Power by Robert A. Caro

  • The Laws of Human Nature  by Robert Greene

  • Mastery  by Robert Greene

  • The 48 Laws of Power  by Robert Greene and Joost Elffers

  • The Art of Seduction  by Robert Greene

  • The 33 Strategies of War (Joost Elffers Books)  by Robert Greene and Joost Elffers

  • The 50th Law by 50 Cent and Robert Greene

Misc

  • [SoS Guide] Influence & Communication

  • [SoS Episode] How To Listen: The Most Underrated Leadership Hack In the 21st Century with Oscar Trimboli

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the Internet with more than four million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

How did one of the greatest geniuses of all time lose his life savings overnight? Despite our illusions of rationality, even the most brilliant humans are not rational at all. We tell ourselves that it's always the other person who's irrational, envious and aggressive and that it's never us. Science shows that all of our brains are remarkably similar, sculpted by evolution to have baked in biases and bad habits. No one is exempted from the laws of human nature.

In this episode, we explore the path that all of the world's greatest strategists have used to master their own irrationality and achieve mastery with our legendary guest, Robert Greene.

I was recently closing a big software deal and I was thinking about how the lessons and themes from the Science of Success have been so valuable to me as an investor and business owner. I realized that I'm leaving a lot of value that I could be creating for you, the listeners on the table. I believe that many of the things that we teach on the Science of Success are some of the biggest and most important business success factors today.

To that end, we're launching a new Science of Success segment focused on business. These episodes will air every other Tuesday and will not interrupt your regularly scheduled Science of Success programming. Everything we teach on the show can be applied to achieving success in your business life. Now, we're going to show you how to do that, along with some interviews of the world's top business experts. With that, I hope you enjoy this business-focused episode of the Science of Success.

Are you a fan of the show and have you been enjoying the content that we put together for you? If you have, I would love it if you signed up for our e-mail list. We have some amazing content on there, along with a really great free course that we put a ton of time into called How To Create Time for What Matters Most In Your Life. If that sounds exciting and interesting and you want a bunch of other free goodies and giveaways along with that, just go to successpodcast.com. You can sign up right on the homepage. That’s successpodcast.com. Or if you’re on your phone right now, all you have to do is text the word smarter, that’s S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222.

In our previous episode, we discussed crazy research that can predict 94% of the time whether or not your relationship will be successful. We revealed why you should never give someone unsolicited advice. We shared the communication Swiss Army knife that you can use to build rapport, influence anyone and deepen the most important relationships in your life, all that and much more in our previous interview with Michael S. Sorensen. If you want to level up the most important relationships in your life, listen to our previous episode.

Now, for our interview with Robert. Please note, this episode contains profanity.

[0:03:27.8] MB: Today, we have another legendary guest on the show, Robert Greene. Robert is an author known for his books on strategy, power and seduction. He's written six international bestsellers, The 48 Laws of Power, The Art of Seduction, The 33 strategies of War, The 50th Law, Mastery and The laws of Human Nature. In addition to having a strong following within the business world and a deep following in Washington, his books have been hailed by everyone from war historians to the biggest musicians in the world, people like Jay-Z, Drake and 50 Cent. Robert, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:04:00.7] RG: Thanks for having me, Matt. I really appreciate being on your great podcast here.

[0:04:04.4] MB: Well, we're so excited to have you on the show. As I was telling you in the pre-show, the research for this episode was so hard, because there's so many incredible topics that we could dig in to. I had to just throw out 48 Laws of Power, can't even get into that. Most of the stuff in Mastery, we probably won't get into, but there's a rich treasure trove of lessons and ideas from Laws of Human Nature that I think we can start with and really dig into.

To open things up, you had a great quote in the book from Isaac Newton and I'll paraphrase it a little bit; one of the most legendary physicists of all time and the quote was basically, “I can understand the laws of the heavenly bodies, but I can't understand the madness of men.” In many ways, that quote inspired the creation of this podcast as well. Our whole quest is how do we understand ourselves and other people and how do we think about it as logically and rationally as possible, because it's so challenging. Tell me a little bit about that quote and how that inspired you to write the book.

[0:04:59.1] RG: Well, that quote is really emblematic for the book as a whole. Basically, the story comes from we think of Isaac Newton as one of the great geniuses of all time, an incredible mathematician and discovered the laws of gravity, he’s set it at that point. What was going on in England in the early 18th century when he was an older man was there was this stock market frenzy of all around this company called the South Sea Company, that was selling shares in the government. Still, I'm not going to go into the nitty-gritty and it's boring. It was a classic story of a bubble, one of the most incredible stories in the history of bubbles that have recurred throughout history.

It swept up everybody, including the King of England, all aristocracy. Coachmen were investing their life savings and suddenly buying mansions. Isaac Newton himself invested 7,000 pounds, almost his whole fortune and he tripled it within a couple months. He sold it, because he thought well, you know, what goes up can go down and I could lose it all and he sold it. Then six months later, people were getting – the frenzy was increasing and he thought, “My God. I got to get back in. Everyone's making more money.” He poured all 21,000 pounds in. Then a few weeks later, the whole thing collapsed like a house of card, like Bernie Madoff’s thing. He lost everything. That's where that quote originated from.

What I found so interesting is here is somebody who is as I said earlier, incredibly brilliant, can figure out the laws of the planets that move far, far away from earth, things that we can't see that are completely invisible. He wrote incredible books about color, etc. He could theorize about the most arcane phenomena in the universe. When it comes to the thing that's most important, that's closest to us all, human nature, people, what makes them tick, what motivates their behavior, he had no clue. He was just as stupid and ignorant as anybody and he fell for this very irrational scheme.

My idea is that we humans have this opinion of ourselves as being very rational, sophisticated, we all have our smartphones and we've evolved so far from our earlier animal origins and we're basically good people and we think before we act. The truth of the matter that I try and make a point in this book, I try to beat this over your head, is that we are not rational at all. We are largely governed by our emotions.

The emotions that seized Isaac Newton was, “Everybody else is making a fortune. I've got to get in on it.” The fear of missing out. We see that all the time in Internet behavior and social media, where you're constantly aware of what other people are doing and you don't want to miss out. You want to be in on what others are doing. Your first consideration isn't, “Is this rational? Is this a good use of my time? Should I really be investing so much money in Bitcoins, or in real estate at this point, or whatever the bubble is?” Or can you step back and actually think rationally?

I make the point that you, you the listener out there, you are not born rational. You are essentially irrational. I include myself in that. I'm not excluding myself. You are born irrational. You are governed by your emotions, largely. You think you're not, you think you're in control, but you are not in control. Your decisions are largely based on emotions, on what pleases you, on what excites you, on what you like.

To be rational in this world requires effort, requires practice, requires training. That's the first law of the law of human nature. That idea that we are largely governed by our emotions and we need to be aware of it is what permeates the entire book.

[0:09:00.8] MB: Such a powerful point. I think it bears underscoring that to do a lot of the research for this book, which is a massive tone and very well-researched, you really dug into a lot of the science and looked at neuroscience and research and all kinds of different work.

[0:09:17.1] RG: Yes. I'm glad you brought that up, because I'm not saying that I'm not just pulling that out of my proverbial you know what, when I say that we're irrational. The neuroscience backs that up. All the most important neuroscientists, including Damasio and Ramachandran and many others make the same point, that the most primitive parts of our brain, the limbic system typically where our emotions are largely based, give off signals, hormonal and electrical signals that are much more powerful than anything that comes from the neocortex, from the cerebral cortex, from the cerebellum.

Emotions are much stronger, give much stronger signals and we pay much greater attention to them than we do to thinking and to ideas. We're essentially, we’re captive of that lizard part of our brain. The evolution of the fear emotion, etcetera. Our species evolved 500,000 years ago, or a million years ago to deal with situations that are not adaptive at all to the 21st century world. Things like the propensity to feel fear and to be caught up in the fear of other people and have it become a viral emotion is extremely wired into our system and leads to a lot of irrationality.

I'm saying in the book that we have to come to terms with who we are, both as a species and both as individuals out there listening to this, that you really are a stranger to yourself. Sometimes you catch this in strange moments in your life, where you suddenly say something, you get angry and then the next day you regret it and you go, “Where did that come from? I don't even know who that was.” Or you invest in something that's foolish and you regret it.

You do actions that seem to you unusual and that surprised you, as if there were another person inside of you. I'm trying to make the point that that is actually who you are, that a lot of the behavior that you don't understand is a signal for things that you're not aware of. This book he's not only geared towards helping you understand people in your world, because we are social animals. Primarily, it's also designed to help you understand yourself, so you can break out some of the negative patterns that are keep holding you back.

[0:11:46.3] MB: You make a great point, which is that this journey is not just about understanding others, but it really begins in many ways with self-awareness and understanding yourself.

[0:11:56.0] RG: Yeah. I mean, take a simple example. I have a chapter in there about attitude. The idea is we all have a particular lens through which we look at the world. Some people, that lens is optimistic, some people it's pessimistic, some people are introverted, some people are extroverted, etc. That energy that you have, that way you have a looking at the world, let's say perhaps it might be defensive, or it might be paranoid, just to put a negative light on it.

When you are interacting with people in your world, you're not aware of the fact that they're picking up your attitude. They're picking up signals from you, non-verbal communication, so much how we communicate to others is non-verbally through the tone of our voice, through the look of our eyes, to how we smile, our body posture.

We're not aware of it and even people who are picking this up are not doing it consciously, but they sense perhaps that you're a defensive, slightly closed person and that makes them in turn defensive and a bit paranoid in dealing with you. As they do that you're going, “Wow, these people don't like me. Maybe my idea that the world is against me is actually correct.” You're not aware of how it starts from you, how so much of what you give out into the world changes how people respond to you. I can go on and on about other areas that you're not aware of.

Simply, I'm trying to show you that there are things that you can control very easily by learning how to alter your attitude, by learning how to approach people with a more open, less defensive spirit and get that reaction in return. These are things that are very simple to control, but you're not aware of how many of the problems in your life, or how many the negative reactions you get actually come from you. Not completely, not always, but a large percentage more than you think.

[0:13:52.4] MB: Such a great point. It's funny, we have tens of thousands of e-mail subscribers and I've sent this one e-mail to tens of thousands of people and the reactions that I get from it are so polarized. Sometimes people are saying, “Wow, I love this. It’s amazing. I love your energy. Thank you so much for sharing this.” Literally, people have sent me all caps, “FU. I hate you. Why are you doing this?” It's such an amazing mirror, because it teaches you that lesson, that a lot of times the reaction of other people is really a reflection of themselves and not you.

[0:14:21.2] RG: Yeah, I have the example in the book of two people – have seen this example happen to me personally. Two people who traveled to Paris when they're young, one person has a negative, slightly defensive attitude. The other person is very open and excited and has an open spirit. The negative person only sees the gloomy weather, the unfriendly people, the dirty streets and the noise, etc. They think, “God, Paris is really overrated. I really hate it.”

The same person who's adventurous and fun-loving thinks, “Well, the language is incredible. Once you get to know the people, they're really interesting. There's so much history.” It's the same stones, it's the same buildings, it's the same river, it's the same bridges, but one person sees it in a very negative light, another person sees it in a positive light. It's all because it's how we look at the world determines what happens to us and what we see.

[0:15:20.6] MB: A moment ago, you touched on this idea that our brains have not evolved, or adapted to exist with the modern world and the stressors and the fears and the things that we deal with in modern society. Tell me a little bit more about that.

[0:15:34.9] RG: We live basically in very small groups of 50 to a 100. Our survival depended on how well we bonded with the group. We developed the capacity to bond with people in a visceral non-verbal way and be extremely susceptible to their emotions, so that if one person in the group, or the tribe felt fear at the sight, perhaps of a leopard in the distance, other members of the group would sense that fear from their co-member and the emotion would pass through them. Then the group could react as a whole very quickly and respond and flee, or whatever it was, or fight.

There was a very important reason for why we are so susceptible to the emotions of other people. That's just one aspect of the ancient wiring of our system. Now, there are not very many leopards roaming the offices in downtown Manhattan. We're not on the savannahs of Africa anymore. The dangers aren't the same. To feel to get so easily caught up in the emotions of other people has a lot of problems. First of all, it leads to irrational behavior, as we see in the crash of 2008, where all of these extremely sophisticated investors like an Isaac Newton, got caught up in this incredible real-estate bubble that finally crashed in 08.

That group mentality, that conformity where the emotional and impact of, “I don't want to miss out. Other people are making money. I'm so excited, etc.” It causes all kinds of problems where the tribe that you belong to on the Internet or wherever, it's a little niche, the people that you listen to, if somebody is outraged or angry about a topic, you get caught up in that anger and it fills you as well. You're not sitting they’re stepping back and going, “Are these emotions that I'm feeling? Are they actually relevant to my life? Do they actually come from me, or do they come from other people?”

In the case of all the investment frenzy in a bubble, it's not coming from you, it's coming from what's happening to other people. A lot of times, your anger has nothing to do with yourself, but you're being caught up in the outrage that other people are feeling. That one aspect, and I could point out others, is not very adapted to a world where we need to be able to be independent, where we need to think for ourselves, where we need to gain control of our emotional responses, but we're not simply reacting to everything that's happening in the world. I want people out there to be good strategists in life. I want them to form a reasonable, rational plan for their future, for their career, or their business for whatever it is.

You cannot begin to be a rational strategist in light, until you're aware of how deeply you're governed by the behavior and emotions of other people. I could go on and list five other kinds of things that were wired into our brains early on, such as our propensity to compare ourselves to other people, what makes us prone to feelings of envy, which has been discerned in chimpanzees. It's a very primate type thing. That's certainly what we see a lot of in social media, where we're so hyper aware of all the great things other people are doing and what we're missing out on.

I can go on and on about other elements as well, but that's just to give you a flavor of the lack of awareness that we have of our true nature, how so much of what determines our behavior are the forces that we are not aware of and can't control. These forces that I'm talking about, the contagiousness of emotions, the propensity to compare, on and on, these are what I call human nature.

[0:19:13.1] MB: I want to dig in to how we start to become rational strategists and cultivate rationality. Before we dig into that, I want to just underscore this point a little bit more and this notion that the primitive primal human nature that underscores our behavior, one of the other themes or ideas from the book is this notion that our brains are remarkably similar and that this applies to everybody. Extrapolate on that a little bit.

[0:19:38.2] RG: Yeah. Glad you brought that up. It's a very important point. Probably, one of the most prevalent things in human nature is that we like to distinguish ourselves. We like to think that we are special. It's always the other person who's a narcissist. “Oh, I'm not a narcissist.” It's always the other person who might feel envy. “Oh, I never feel envy.” It's the other person who's aggressive. “Oh, I'm never aggressive. I'm an angel. I always have the best intentions at heart.” On and on and on.

I'm trying to as I said, beat you over the head with this idea that all of us are cut from the same cloth, all of our brains are remarkably similar in size and in configuration. Of course, there are differences and those differences are very important. For the most part, our brains are wired and are basically of the same size and we're all have systems, ways that the brain function, that transcend us as individuals.

This idea, this propensity that we have to be self-absorbed, which is the source of narcissism, if it's something that's wired into our nature of the reasons that we can't control and have to do with how we're reared in the long years that we spend being reared by our parents unlike any other animal, and that's what makes us self-absorbed for reasons I discuss in the book. If that's part of our nature, then you're not exempt from that, you listening to this right now.

You have definite narcissistic tendencies. The person out there who says, “Oh, no. I'm not a narcissist.” You can be a sure sign that that is a narcissist, because narcissists like to think of themselves as being very special and different. Well, you're not special and different. We all have the same brain, the same propensity, the same tendencies. Yes, some people are more aggressive than others. Yes, some people have more tendencies towards envy. Yes, some people are toxic out there. I talk a lot about the toxic types out there.

There's simply more extreme examples of propensity that exists in all of us humans. I want a bit of humility in you. I'm saying, you need to transform, you need to turn that self-absorption that all of us have, particularly in the day of smartphones, etc. You need to turn that around and turn it into empathy. You need to take that energy and that love that you feel towards yourself and direct it outward at other people and get interested in their lives. You can't do that until you come to terms with the fact that you are basically self-absorbed. It is a very important theme in the book that you are not exempt from the qualities that I'm discussing in this book. I include myself very much in all of those things.

[0:22:17.0] MB: A really powerful point. Even that last bit is critical and obviously, this applies to me, this applies to you, this applies to everybody. To begin the steps towards as you called it earlier, becoming a rational strategist to cultivating humility, you really have to turn the gaze inward and look at yourself and figure out where are these tendencies happening in my life.

[0:22:39.6] RG: Yeah. I mean, rationality the way I describe it, I defined in the book is simply being aware of your irrationality, of the emotions that are governing your decisions. With that awareness, you can then begin to discard your emotions, to not discard them, but to step back from them and to reassess them and to not let them govern you. Let's say you have an important decision, or plan to make. You're going to battle in your business, or you're dealing with an incredibly intense rival, or competitor, the stakes are high. You come up with a strategy and a plan and other people get onboard and they go, “Wow, this looks great.”

You're not aware of the fact that you're probably being governed by wishes and desires and things. You're being optimistic about how your opponent will react to this, not realizing that at the same time that you're coming up with a plan, your opponent is coming up with a plan, which could be even more brilliant than yours. You get caught up in the excitement that other people, “Oh, this is great. This will work.” You're imagining all the success that will happen, all the money that will be flowing in, but you're not being rational.

Rational means stepping back and saying, “What part of my decision-making process here could possibly be infected with emotions? How am I possibly overestimating our powers? How am I possibly underestimating my enemy? Have I really thought this through? Are there maybe two or three or four other options I could look into?” No, because you tend to go – like a tunnel, you tend to be geared towards that one thing that pleases you, that makes you excited.

If you're aware that you have this emotional tendency and that you're not rational, you will step back and you will reassess your decisions in life. That is the first step towards becoming rational. Now there are other steps and I include them in the book, but none of that will ever matter. You will never become a strategist in life, until you come to terms with the fact, you are basically governed by emotions and that your emotions are infecting all of your decisions in planning in life.

[0:24:47.7] MB: An underpinning of that is this notion that our brains operate by simplifying information, and even the notion that we often can't access the true source of our feelings and emotions. Tell me how that impacts all of us.

[0:25:03.5] RG: Well, that's another part of the neuroscience. I touched upon that earlier. Basically, the emotional part of the brain – I mean, I'm simplifying here. I'm not a neuroscientist, so please excuse me. I've read a lot about neuroscience, but I'm not an expert. Essentially, that emotional part of our brain, you can call it the limbic system, or it could begin in the thalamus or whatever part of the brain, is very ancient and primitive. It dates back to reptiles, to the year of the dinosaurs and the first fear reactions.

The higher up in the brain you go, you reach the neocortex, the source of our ability to rationalize, the executive part of the brain where we’re able to make decisions and think about the future. These two parts of the brain are very different. They don't operate on the same system. They're not coded in the same way. When you feel an emotion, which is largely hormonal, or electrical, or chemical, let me say, it's not connected to the language part in the left hemisphere of the brain. It's very hard to understand the roots of your emotions, or to put them in words and we've all felt that happened to us.

One day we wake up and we're depressed and we don't know why. Nothing happened. There's no reason for it. Or one day we feel angry. Perhaps we think it has to do with what somebody said, but if we step back we realize, there's no real reason why we're angry. If you just thought about it many times, you don't really know why you're feeling the way you're feeling. That's because the part where we have emotions and the part where we think in words are not connected, are not on the same system.

It was very hard to understand and verbalize and get at the root of your emotional responses. I talk in the book, I have an example that I like to use of a young man as a scenario, who grew up 3 or 4-years-old with a mother who was not very attentive, who is let's say a narcissist herself. He experienced this mothering as almost a form of abandonment. She was never there for him. It was very intense and it was very painful.

Throughout his life, later in life in his relationships with other women, he's constantly unconsciously mostly afraid of being abandoned. He experienced the abandonment of his mother. What does he do? He gets in a relationship. After six months or so, he's the one to break it off. This pattern goes on and on throughout his life. The breakups occur for different reasons. He always has a rationale for, “Oh, this woman wasn't right for me. We're not on the same plane. Oh, she's a gold digger, or whatever, etc.”

He's not aware of the fact that when he was a child, this pattern were set, where his emotions, his emotional response to the potential of being abandoned by a person was so powerful. He had to do anything to foreclose it, to not let that happen. Here he is going through life, making himself miserable by always breaking up relationships. Hnd he hasn't a clue as to the source of the actual emotions that he's feeling.

Now that's a rather dramatic example. It's pulled from one of the case studies of a famous psychologist, but I'm sure there are similar examples happening in the lives of all those people out there listening to this.

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[0:29:39.8] MB: I want to start to unpack some of the lessons and strategies we can start to use to be more rational. You talked about the idea of the first step is really stepping back, cultivating an awareness of your own irrationality and your own biases. What do we do after that?

[0:29:56.1] RG: Really, probably the most critical step, you're not really aware of how other people are perceiving you. You are locked into your own world, you're in your own little tunnel vision of your own thoughts and preoccupations and you're not really aware of how other people perceive you. Now it's not easy to do that. It's hard to get out of yourself.

To the extent that you can begin to loosen up and not always react to situations. Part of this book is to get you to stop reacting and to have a more detached view towards life, which will make you a better strategist. What's making you react all the time is that you're locked inside of yourself, you're not paying attention to other people, you're not aware of how they're responding to you, of how they're looking at you. This is a book about altering your perspective on life. Turning that lens that is not 95% turned inward. You don't think that. You probably think, “Oh, that's not me.”

If you watched yourself in a conversation, you would realize that most of the time, you're not listening to the other person, you're listening to that little monologue in your head. You're going over what the boss said, what your girlfriend said, you're worried about tomorrow, etc. You're not really listening, or paying attention. I'm trying to get you to turn that lens that is so much focused inward, to focus it outward on other people, to find other people interesting and fascinating and to absorb your mental energy, a lot of your creative energy to getting inside the minds of perspective of other people.

That is what will make you a superior social being in this, with social agent. You can't succeed in this world. No matter how technically brilliant you are at coding, or whatever field you're in, you will never get far if you're bad with people, if you misjudge them, if you're naïve, if you're rude and not aware of it. Okay, so you've got to develop the skill. It will make your life a thousand times easier, but you need to be able to focus your energy, your creativity, your thinking, your mind on other people and follow them.

I have chapter after chapter about how to do that, on how to learn how to become attuned to the non-verbal communication that people have, to be attuned to the patterns that they give off. Probably the most important thing in your life when it comes to decisions is who to partner with. You have a business and you want to partner with someone. Or you need to hire an executive to help you. Or you’re choosing an intimate partner in life.

We make most often the worst decisions, because they're based on emotions. We don't look at the character of the other people, because we're thinking about how they flatter us, whether we like them. We're thinking about ourselves. If you focus outward and you look at them squarely, objectively and coldly and look at their patterns and look at what they've done in the past and assess the strength of their character, not just how charming they are, you will make better decisions.

You talk about what the next step is, it's turning that inward absorption and focusing it outward and absorbing yourself in the minds of perspective of other people. Not only will that make you a better social agent in this world, but it's also great therapy. Because you probably, by being so self-absorbed, you're making yourself miserable. It's actually great to absorb your mind and the thoughts and experiences in the world of other people. It's like taking in drugs. You get outside of yourself finally. That would be the second most important skill.

[0:33:42.3] MB: How do we start to do that and see through other people's masks?

[0:33:46.8] RG: Well, the most critical thing, I mean, I've already mentioned it, but I'll say it in a different way, is people say what? You should be better listener. Well, that's very simplistic answer. It really won't help you be a better listener. Well, okay, I'll try, but it won't lead to anything. That's not the crux of the problem. The crux of the problem is that when you're sitting down with someone in a conversation, you might pretend otherwise, but really you're more interested in yourself.

I'm not being critical there. I'm not criticizing you. I have that same problem. It's natural. It's human nature. You're more interested in your own ideas, in your own world, in your own emotions, in your own experiences. What makes us a narcissist, you'll notice is that you'll also tend to be attracted to people who have the same opinions and the same ideas as you, which is another form of narcissism.

Anyway, you only will be able to do what I'm saying to the extent that you find other people more fascinating than your own world, than your own internal monologue. I want you to do – I give people simple exercises. I want you tomorrow in your office or wherever you work, there's somebody that you deal with all of the time that you talk to and you probably take them for granted, you don't really pay attention. I want you in the course of a conversation, to look at them and to observe one thing that you would never notice before about them.

Perhaps it's a way they smile, perhaps it's something non-verbal, perhaps it's something that they say that indicates an emotion, an aversion, or an excitement that you would never realized before. I want you to glean one nugget of truth you would never really observed in them until this moment. I want you to see that wow, this really does work, this is powerful. If I actually try and think inside them, if I truly listen, if I try and say what is their motivation? What's going on in their mind? I see something that I never saw before.

Then if you do that two or three times the next day, on and on it becomes a muscle that you're training and you'll be able to interact with people better and you'll be able to think inside of them. You can't get through life without the ability to influence and persuade people. You want them to invest in your company. You want them to go along with your idea. You want them to help you in some way. You're always in that position. I'm always in that position as well.

Nine times out of ten, you're thinking about your own interests, you're thinking about well, I have a great idea. They can't help but love me. Well, I've done a favor for them before. They need to do this for me now. You're thinking of yourself and that makes it very hard to persuade people, because they sense the fact that you're thinking about yourself. You're not thinking about them and it makes them defensive. It makes them think that some person wants something out of me. “I'm a busy person. I don't want to have to give to them.”

If you turn that around and instead of thinking of yourself, you think of them, you think of their self-interest, you think of their world, you think of their problems, you think of what could save them time, what could make their life easier and you somehow introduce that into the conversation, suddenly all that defensiveness is gone and you have much more room to persuade them, or to influence them than you ever had before.

This ability to find other people fascinating, you go to movies and you're interested in that murderer, or in that other interesting character, whomever that superhero and you want to know what makes them tick, why are they acting like that way? You're fascinated. Well, people in the real-life are like characters in a movie. They're more interesting than you think. If you could get to the point where you can want – you want to understand them, you want to see their perspective, you want to understand where they're coming from.

Don't get me wrong, some people are toxic out there. You don't want to be so soft that you'd like this with everyone and then you let talk to people run all over you. This ability to understand people will actually make it easier for you to deal with toxic people. A lot of times, we don't see that flaming narcissist who enters our life and wreaks all kinds of havoc, because we're so spelled down by their charm, by their words.

This ability to get outside of yourself and look at them squarely and see their perspective will make it easier for you to identify that toxic narcissist before you let them into your life. This will not only help you deal with the people who could be potential allies, it will also help improve your ability to combat those definitely malevolent figures that exist in the world.

[0:38:31.1] MB: Great advice and really, really important point. The idea of focusing on other people is so critical and such a powerful influence strategy. I'll throw some episodes in the show notes for listeners, because there's some really, really good episodes we have that go even deeper in that topic. For some reason, that made me think of another chapter in the book and it's only tangentially related, but really interesting is the chapter about the law of defensiveness and how we can soften other people's resistance by framing things, or confirming their own self-opinion. Tell me a little bit more about that.

[0:39:03.4] RG: Well, the idea is simple. I say that people have an opinion about themselves. They look at themselves in a certain light. They have a certain image of who they are. There are three universals to that self-opinion. What I mean is that almost all of us share in these three factors. One of them is that we basically think we're rational and autonomous. In other words, we make decisions based on thinking, rather than emotions.

The other one is that we're basically good people. Yeah, sometimes we mess up, but basically we have the best intentions at heart. We're a team player. We like other people. The third is that we're autonomous. In other words, when we do something in this world, it's not because other people told us or made us, or we're imitating what other people are doing. We've basically decided on our own through our own willpower what we want to do.

If you approach people and of course, everybody, then there are specific elements to a person's self-opinion that depend on them as individual, such as some people have a self-opinion, that they're incredibly self-reliant and independent, that they're very tough-minded. Other people have the self-opinion that they're incredibly generous towards other people with their time, etc.

There are individual aspects to that opinion. If you go and you approach someone, a stranger or even a friend and you're in the position where you want their help, or you want to get them on your side, or have some degree of influence on them and you inadvertently offend that opinion, you inadvertently trip on it, you inadvertently make them feel that they're irrational, that they're stupid, they're not thinking.

If you make them feel that they're actually not so autonomous, that they're behaving because other people are doing this, if you make them feel that they're not really good or whatever it is, then doors will close. It will never open up again. Because we all want to feel, we all have this image of ourselves. To have that violated, to have somebody confront that, to challenge it is very, very disturbing to the human animal. I go into that more depth in the book why that is.

You may not realize that you're doing that. It's very subtle. You may not think that what you say could have that effect. People are very sensitive. Everyone has an ego and maybe you inadvertently are saying something that is tripping that wire and then they’ll listen to your idea, they’ll listen to what you have to say to your plea for help and they'll politely say, “No, I'm sorry. I can't. Very interesting, but whatever.”

You're not aware of the ill-will you inadvertently stirred. The fact that you unconsciously made them not want to help you, not want to be on your side. Your task in life, before you ever approach people and ask them for anything is to make them feel comfortable about themselves, is to validate their self-opinion, is to make them feel that they are smart, they are good, that they are basically acting as rational, autonomous people, etc. You want to make them feel comfortable and validated as a human being.

That doesn't mean it has to be a 100% bullshit, because a lot of people are basically good. We all have good elements in them. If you focus on what is actually positive about that person and you say things that make it clear that you like them, that you accept them and that you acknowledge these positive qualities in them, suddenly that whole dynamic alters. Before you even – you might not ask them for help until the next day or a week later, but you've softened them up. You've softened that natural defensiveness up and it's an incredibly important skill. In the book, all my chapters are illustrated with stories.

I talk about Lyndon Johnson, our president, but who was also a senator. He was the absolute master of this. In discussing his story, I reveal all his techniques, how he was such an incredible listener and how he always got into the world of the other person and made them feel validated and comfortable. Then when he got them, they didn't even realize that they were serving him in the end, that they were doing him the favors and doing things that he wanted. He was so good at it. This is an incredibly important skill to have in life.

[0:43:26.6] MB: Another great strategy and really interesting example. I want to change gears slightly, because there's so many topics I want to touch on. One of the most interesting things for me from the book was the notion of – we touched on this broader principle earlier, but the specific idea of how people often in their uncertainty and confusion, fear about the world, about themselves, about their place and that they end up as you put in the book, replacing their curiosity with conviction. Tell me about how we can do the opposite of that and why it's important to cultivate an expansive and positive and curious world perspective.

[0:44:03.1] RG: We have a tendency, because we mistake the appearances of people for the reality. If somebody like a politician seems extremely competent and full of conviction about some idea, we assume that they must be correct, that there must be some validity to it. Why else would that person be so emotional if they didn't feel that they weren't correct. It seems unnatural as to think that it's an act.

Whereas, the truth is the more that people express themselves with conviction about something, the more excited they are about their idea, the more they try and yell at you what needs to be done in the world, etc., and seems so supremely confident, the more you need to be suspicious, because they're probably trying to deceive you. They're probably trying to cover up all kinds of weaknesses and insecurities.

The same thing is happening to you. Your natural tendency as you get older is for your mind to close up. When you were a child, you were like a sponge. You were just so open. You're absorbing all this information from your parents, from your teachers, from your friends, you were curious about the world, you wanted to read books, you wanted to understand, because you were in a position of weakness and you needed to.

Then as we get older and life gets harsh and we develop an ego, those qualities start dropping off from us. We don't want to feel so open, because openness means vulnerability. If we are not so sure about our ideas, if we think that well, maybe there is a God, maybe there isn’t. I'm not sure. I don't have any evidence yet. I could be – I'm agnostic, etc. It seems weak in the world. People who have convictions seem like they're strong. “Oh, no. There is a God. Oh, no. There is no God,” etc., etc., right?

The idea that you're more nuanced, that you're not making a decision, that you're open and you're curious and you wanted to see perhaps what is really going on, seems like a child, seems like something that's weak. Your tendency is to close your mind off, so that also it's comforting to have certain ideas in your head that just keep repeating, that you learn when you're in your early 20s and it becomes solidified.

Then you don't have to challenge yourself. You don't have to think anymore. You don't have to assess the world as it is. Your mind gets harder and harder and harder and more rigid. You're not even aware of it. Just like your body is growing rigid and you have to do yoga for it, your mind is growing hard with each day as you take on ideas and they become rock solid in your brain and you don't question them anymore.

This limits your creative potential in life. It's destroying your mind. It's making it so that you're not able to learn anymore, because you think you know everything. I talk a lot about this in Mastery. It's a major theme in Mastery, when I go into creativity and developing true mastery of your field. A creative mind is incredibly flexible. That's the quality of an Einstein, of a Steve Jobs, of any really great entrepreneur, of any great artist out there in the world, even of a political figure.

You want that flexibility, just as you want to be flexible with your body, you want that of your mind. You want to go back to that childhood curiosity that you feel. You want to realize that you don't understand the world. You think you know everything about physics, or about laws, or this, that, or the other in science, etc. In 300 years, all of those ideas will be laughable as people have learned so much more than we know now. What you think you know is probably going to be ridiculous in several centuries.

Have some humility and have some curiosity and open yourself up to the ideas of other people who are different from yourself. Don't be so sure of what you think you know. You have only your own rigidity to lose and your own creativity to develop.

[0:48:00.9] MB: I think that's one of the most important ideas that spreads across a lot of your work. Whether it's from Mastery, from Laws of Human Nature, this notion of being flexible, being humble, not getting rigidly stuck in your perspectives and your mental patterns is such a core component of performance, of happiness, of influencing other people. Yet, it feels like our world every day is marching more towards more fixed and polarized perspectives.

[0:48:31.6] RG: Yeah. I mean, Law of 48, or The 48 Laws of Power is assumed formlessness. Be like water, it's the old Bruce Lee idea. It comes from martial arts. It comes from Sun Tzu, it's one of the oldest ideas and strategy. In Seduction, I talk about how you need to adapt yourself to each person and be fluid and be like Proteus. The 33 strategies of War, I talk about how you don't want to fight the last battle. Each battle is different and you have to approach each decision and strategy in life and start fresh and think anew. As I talk in Mastery, I talk about it in this book.

Yeah, it's a continual theme in my book, because it contains so much power. If you want power in life, if you're not just mouthing and saying, “Yeah, I'm interested and I want to be a powerful person.” If you are truly interested in it, you have to start with your own mind. You have to start with your own spirit and how you approach things, under the degree that you think the degree that you think you know, to the degree that you repeat the same patterns and strategies, you are going to fail in life. It's just that simple.

If you want success, if you want power, you've got to follow this. It's the path that all of the great strategists in life have followed. I make it very in all my books, with tons of historical examples and backed by neuroscience. It's said particularly in Mastery where I talk about it, but it's do you want this power? Do you want success? Do you want to be creative in your field? Well, then you better get off your ass and you better follow this advice. You better start opening your mind up to other possibilities.

[0:50:01.7] MB: Incredible. I love it. For somebody who's been listening to this conversation who wants to start somewhere, who wants to concretely implement one thing or idea as a piece of homework to begin down this journey, what would be one action step that you would give them to start right away?

[0:50:19.3] RG: Well, I've already hinted at several. You can use a journal, if you want. Journals are very helpful in this. Or you can just simply do this thought experiment in your own head. You keep it there. In the course of a day, you're going to feel many different emotions and our emotions are blended. We never simply feel love, or excitement, or hate. They're always blended with something else.

We can actually feel love and hate at the same time. We can feel envy and admiration at the same time. Our emotions are very fluid. They're always crossing and blending into each other. In the course of the day, it's like this continual wave of moods and emotions that are overcoming you. You're not thinking about them, you're just letting them take over and you're not aware of them. I want you one day, perhaps tomorrow or whenever as a fun experiment, this should be fun, to look at yourself and capture one of those moods, capture one of those emotions that come in the form of a thought.

For instance, “Damn, I hate that person. They really screwed me. They don't like me, etc.” Okay, because our emotions would generally come to us associated with an idea or a thought. I want you to step back and not just give in to that emotion and not just think, “Oh, I'm so justified to feel that way.” Go and say, “Where did that come from? Why am I feeling this way? Is there some rational objective reason why I have this emotion?” Is it as simple as I think, maybe my hatred is actually mixed with envy. Maybe secretly, the person that I'm wanting to diss is actually somebody that I envy and wish I have what they have. Maybe my emotions aren't what I they think they are.

I want you to take that exercise and just catch yourself once and go and backtrack and try and think about the root of where it comes from and don't just simply react. Maybe write it down. Maybe what you'll discover is, “I woke up with this mood and I don't even know why.” Maybe it was something I ate the night before, or maybe this emotion has something to do with a pattern in my life, where these situations always seem to elicit this emotion and I'm not even aware of it. Maybe my anger stems from something in my childhood, or whatever.”

Question and dig. Think before you act. Try and come up with one little idea or noggin as I said earlier about another exercise about yourself and about why you're feeling a particular way in the course of the day and analyze it, instead of giving in to it. It's a very powerful exercise. As someone who meditates – I meditate every morning, I'm continually going through that process. As I'm saying, they're trying to empty my mind, suddenly this emotion comes to me. “Damn, my agent didn't call me back. Damn, why is this person bothering me?” I detach myself and I go, “Why are you thinking that? Why are you giving into that? You don't have to worry about that now. There's no reason to have that emotion. Now where is it coming from?”

It's coming from your ego, or some dark part of your personality. Why, where? Question. I want you out there, the listener out there to go through that process at least once in the course of the next day or so and sense whether that's an interesting thing and whether that you'll have something to learn from it.

[0:53:48.4] MB: Robert, where can listeners find you and all of your work online?

[0:53:52.8] RG: Well, I have an old website. Sometimes old is good. It's power, seduction and war. The and is spelled out. Powerseductionandwar.com. There you'll find links to the book that I did with 50 Cent, The 50th Law, to Mastery and to The Laws of Human Nature, to some of my blog posts and to my Twitter and other social media. An e-mail address where you can send me ideas or whatever you want, to communicate. It's all there, powerseductionandwar.com.

[0:54:26.9] MB: Well Robert, thank you so much for coming on the show. As I said before, your books have inspired me, some my favorite books of all time. Mastery is one of my all-time personal favorites, but all of your work is so incredible, so detailed, so rich with examples and insights. It's been an honor to have you on the show today.

[0:54:44.2] RG: Thank you so much for having me, Matt. My pleasure.

[0:54:47.2] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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Thanks again, and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.

October 17, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making, Weapons of Influence
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Use These Powerful Thinking Tools To Solve Your Hardest Problems with David Epstein

September 05, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making

In this episode we discuss powerful thinking tools and strategies you can use to break through tough problems and give yourself confidence and clarity when you’re dealing with uncertain situations. We share the breakthrough strategy that was used to invent astrophysics, explore how you can make tough life and career choices, and show you how you can use quick experiments to test, learn, and get results quickly. We share all of this and much more in with our guest David Epstein.

David Epstein is the author of Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World, and of the New York Times bestseller The Sports Gene. He has master's degrees in environmental science and journalism and has worked as an investigative reporter for ProPublica and as a senior writer for Sports Illustrated, writing some of their most high-profile investigative stories.

  • We don’t teach the skill of actually THINKING in today’s world.

  • There’s a HUGE advantage in connecting ideas and learning how to think broadly, especially as people specialize more. The more and more people specialize the more powerful range and broad thinking becomes.

  • For much of the 20th century most of progress was driven by specialization, but beginning in the 1980s, most breakthroughs started coming from multidisciplinary combinations and breadth, not depth.

  • The “cult of the head start” - the drive to specialize as narrowly and as early as possible.

  • What can we learn from the story of Tiger Woods?

  • In almost every sport, athletes start out with a “sampling period” and “systematically delay specialization."

  • Traditional chess is an activity where early specialization is really important.

  • Grandmaster’s advantage in chess stems primarily from deep pattern recognition.

  • Moraveck’s paradox - humans and machines have opposite strengths and weaknesses.

  • In freestyle chess, you outsource the pattern study to the computer, and you focus on the higher level strategy - it becomes a completely different game. That’s what has happened to success in today’s world.

  • You see the same pattern play out in ATMs and Bank Tellers, and across a wide swath of industries and domains.

  • “A broader set of integrative skills” is where humans can add the most value.

  • How “wicked learning environments” like business, investing, medicine, and human interaction are much trickier to navigate, and what that means for how you learn and improve

  • How do we play “Martian Tennis?” Where there are murky feedback loops and things constantly change.

  • Learning and improvement in “kind domains” vs “wicked domains”

  • Using “Fermi Problems” to navigate tough situations and learning environments

  • Why you should ask yourself “How many piano tuners are there in New York City?"

  • The Importance of “broadly applicable reasoning tools” over highly specific knowledge

  • The powerful thinking tool from the inventor of astrophysics that you can use to understand confusing and difficult phenomenon

  • Analogies are one of the most important tools for creative problem solving

  • Successful problem solvers are more able to determine the deep structure of a problem before they proceed to match a strategy to it.

  • Come up with an enormous number of analogies, as many analogies as you can, from different domains, with a structural similarity

  • “Switchers are winners” - why changing your job or changing what you study can end up being a huge win for you.

  • The economics concept of “match quality” and how it can impact the direction of your life

  • Who wins the tradeoff between early and late specializers?

  • Early specializers jump out to an initial lead, but then eventually lag behind and get left behind by the late specializers

  • Grit is great, but strategic quitting can be a great thing. Even the researcher of Grit, Angela Duckworth, supports changing directions.

  • It’s important to try things, and quit things, to find the true “match quality” for what can make you happier and make you a better performer

  • “We learn who we are in practice, not in theory.” - Herminia Ibarra

  • Which among my various possible selves should I start to explore now? How can I do that?

  • Start with quick experiments, test and learn, don’t begin with grand plans

  • Create a “book of small experiments” and start testing the things you might want to do or learn

  • Taking a beginning fiction writing class helped David become a better nonfiction writer.

    • Replacing the quotes with his own narration to make it more clear

  • How you can use the Japanese concept of “Bansho” to improve your thinking and become a more effective learner

  • “Making connections” knowledge vs “Using procedures” knowledge. Drawing broad and deep connections instead of learning routines.

  • Sometimes rapid development can undermine your longer term develop.

  • You want to develop deeper more flexible knowledge.

  • The power of using “Interleaving” as a learning method.

  • Forcing learners into "conceptual thinking" improves deep and longer lasting learning.

  • Homework: Create a “book of small experiments” and start testing the things you might want to do or learn. Do something new once a quarter. Create a hypothesis of why you want to explore that interest and test the hypothesis.

  • Homework: Whenever you’re thinking about a project you’re going to take on, you will make predictions about how that project will go, use the ‘outside view’ instead of the ‘inside view.’

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Thank you so much for listening!

Please SUBSCRIBE and LEAVE US A REVIEW on iTunes! (Click here for instructions on how to do that).

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This week's episode of The Science of Success is presented by Dr. Aziz Gazipura's Confidence University!

You can learn to confidently connect with others, be bold, feel proud of who you are, and create the life you truly deserve!

What Would Your Life Look Like If You Have Double The Confidence?

Don't Wait and Wonder! Find Out Today!

Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • David’s Website

  • David’s Wiki Page

  • David’s Twitter and LinkedIn

Media

  • [Scholarly Article] APS - “The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments” by Robin M. Hogarth, Tomás Lejarraga, and Emre Soyer

  • [Article] Newsweek - “MAN VS. MACHINE“ by Steven Levy

  • [Article] The Guardian - “'Calling bullshit': the college class on how not to be duped by the news“ by James McWilliams

  • [Article] Scientific American - “The Interleaving Effect: Mixing It Up Boosts Learning” By Steven C. Pan

  • [Wiki Article] Fermi problem

  • [Wiki Article] Moravec's paradox

  • [Article] tdaxp - DUNCKER’S RADIATION PROBLEM

  • [Article Directory] David’s Author directory on Sports Illustrated, Slate, Pacific Standard Magazine, The Guardian, and The Atlantic

  • [Book Review] The New York Times - “Remember the ‘10,000 Hours’ Rule for Success? Forget About It” by Jim Holt

  • [Article] Morning Brew - “A Conversation With "Range" Author David Epstein” by Alex Hickey

  • [Article] NPR - “'Range' Argues That Specialization Should Not Be The Goal For Most” by Bradley Babendir

  • [Profile] TED Speaker Profile - David Epstein

  • [Article] Daily Stoic - “Bestselling Author David Epstein On Philosophy, Accepting Obstacles, and Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World”

  • [Article] Medium - “Lessons from “Range” by David Epstein” by Kyle Nielson

  • [Article] The Verge - “Why specialization can be a downside in our ever-changing world” by Angela Chen

  • [Article] ProPublica - “When Evidence Says No, But Doctors Say Yes” by David Epstein

  • [Article] CBS News - “"Range" author David Epstein explains why generalization beats specialization” by David Morgan

  • [Podcast] Finding Mastery - AUTHOR DAVID EPSTEIN: SPORTS GENE, CURIOSITY, SELF-DISCOVERY

  • [Podcast] EconTalk - David Epstein on Mastery, Specialization, and Range

  • [Podcast] The Learning Leader - Episode #310: David Epstein – Why Generalists Will Rule The World

  • [Podcast] Good Life Project - WHY GENERALISTS BEAT SPECIALISTS | DAVID EPSTEIN

  • [Podcast] Art of Manliness - Podcast #127: The Sports Gene With David Epstein

  • [Podcast] Lewis Howes - EP. 817 You Don’t Have to be the Best

  • [Podcast] Way of Champions - #116 Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World with David Epstein

Videos

  • TED - Are athletes really getting faster, better, stronger? | David Epstein

  • APB Speakers - Epstein and Gladwell discuss “Range” at MIT - David Epstein

  • Big Think - How to study better and avoid a test-day disaster | David Epstein

  • Politics and Prose - David Epstein with Daniel Pink

  • 42 Analytics - SSAC19: Making the Modern Athlete: A Conversation with David Epstein and Malcolm Gladwell

  • Next Big Idea Club - An Introduction to "Range" by David Epstein

  • Mike Matthews - David Epstein on the truth of genetics and physical abilities

  • Leaders - David Epstein (The Sports Gene): Why 10,000 hours is too much and not enough

  • The Aspen Institute - "The Sports Gene," A Conversation with Author David Epstein and Olympic Medalist Dara Torres

Books

  • Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World by David Epstein

  • The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance by David Epstein

Misc

  • [SoS Episode] Self Help For Smart People - How You Can Spot Bad Science & Decode Scientific Studies with Dr. Brian Nosek

  • [Website] Herminia Ibarra

  • [Study] Harvard University - The Dark Horse Project

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[00:00:11] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than 4 million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we discuss powerful thinking tools and strategies you can use to break through tough problems and give yourself confidence and clarity when you're dealing with uncertain situations.

We share the breakthrough strategy that was used to invent astrophysics. Explore how you can make tough life and career choices, and show you how you can use quick experiments to test, learn and get results rapidly. We share all these and much more with our guest this episode, David Epstein

Are you a fan of the show and have you been enjoying the content that we put together for you? If you have, I would love it if you signed up for our email list. We have some amazing content on their along with the really great free course that we put a ton of time into called How to Create Time for What Matters Most in Your Life. If that sounds exciting and interesting and you want a bunch of other free goodies and giveaways along with that, just go to successpodcast.com. You can sign up right on the homepage. That’s successpodcast.com. Or if you're on your phone right now, all you have to do is text the word “smarter”. That's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44222.

On our previous episode, we discussed what creates great performance at work. We uncovered how you can do better work in fewer hours. How you can get rid of wasted meetings with hacks that you can use to make your meetings radically more productive to finally remove the things that are distracting you and learn the recipes you need to say no to your boss the right way so that you can focus on the biggest things that will create the most value in your work. We shared all of that and many more lessons with our previous guest, Dr. Morten Hansen. If you want to do better work in less time, listen to our previous interview.

Now, for our interview with David.

Please note, this episode contains profanity.

[00:02:20] MB: Today, we have another awesome guest on the show, David Epstein. David is the author of Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World, and of the New York Times bestseller, The Sports Gene. He has a master’s degree in environmental science and journalism and has worked as an investigative reporter for ProPublica and is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated writing some of their most high-profile investigative stories.

David, welcome to The Science of Success.

[00:02:44] DE: Hey, Matt. Pleasure to be here.

[00:02:46] MB: Well, I'm really excited to have you on the show today. As I was selling in the preshow, I’m a huge fan of Range and I really enjoyed the book. I recommended it to many different people, and it just touches on such an important theme and idea, this notion that in today's world we have all this information at our fingertips, and the real skill, the real challenge is in a world of deep specialization of tons and tons of infinite information. The real skill that becomes more and more valuable is how do we step back and start to combine things and how do we really teach the skill of actually thinking.

[00:03:17] DE: Yeah, and unfortunately we often kind of don't, right? And I think that's really unfortunate, because people – Some of the work that I marshaled in the book, I wanted to show how big an advantage there is to connecting ideas and learning how to think broadly, particularly as people specialize more, right?

So it's like them more and more specialized people or push to get, the greater the advantages are for people who can kind of look across domains and integrate knowledge. This is showing up in pretty interesting ways in research. Like some of the research in technological innovation that I looked at showed that for a lot of the 20th century, the people making the biggest impacts were those who drilled really deeply down into one area of technology as classified by the U.S. Patent Office.

But then, starting in about the mid-1980s, where we have the explosion of information technology and suddenly huge amounts of information are quickly available and widely disseminated, suddenly you start seeing the biggest and most valuable impacts coming from people who had actually spread their work across a large number of different technological domains, often bringing something from one area where it was kind of normal and putting it into another area where it was rare and more valuable. And that trend has only accelerated, but it seems like our notion of how to be successful really hasn't kind of kept pace with that.

[00:04:33] MB: Yeah, it’s a really interesting problem, because in today's world there is almost a scream or cry or drive to specialize as early as you possibly can to really dig in and focus on one particular thing, and yet that skill set of broad thinking is so powerful.

[00:04:51] DE: Yeah, and I think you mentioned the drive to specialize as sort of early and narrowly as possible, right? Or what I call raise the cult of the head start, basically. And I think it might be useful to sort of share the jumping off point that I start the book with, which comes from the sports world. The introduction I called Roger versus Tiger, basically. I started with Tiger Woods, because I think Tiger Woods is probably the most powerful modern development story. It's been at the core of at least a half dozen best-selling books. And even if you don't really know the details of the Tiger story, you probably kind of absorbed the gist.

His father gave him a putter when he was 7-months-old. 10 months, he started imitating a swing. He was physically precocious. Two-years-old, you can go on YouTube and see him on national television demonstrating a swing. Three-years-old he’s saying, “I’m going to be the next Jack Nicholas.” You fast-forward at age 21, he’s the best golfer in the world. And that has been I think probably the most written about and most disseminated story of development of expertise.

So, against that kind, on the other side of the teeter totter, I put the story of Roger Federer, who played some basketball, some tennis, some swimming when he was a kid. His mother was a tennis coach, but declined to coach him because he wouldn’t balls normally. He went on to play handball, volleyball, skateboarding, rugby, a number of other sports.

When his coaches tried to bump him up a level to play against older boys, he declined, because he just want to talk about pro wrestling after practice. He did wrestling after that, and he just kept trying one sport after another, and was not focused on being great early.

In fact, when he got good enough to warrant an interview with a local newspaper, the reporter asked him what he'd buy if he ever became a pro with his first hypothetical paycheck, and he said a Mercedes. And his mother, who like did not want him focused on sports to that degree was appalled and asked the reporter if she could listen to the interview recording. And the reporter obliged and it turned out Roger had actually said more CDs in Swiss German. He just wanted more CDs, not a Mercedes. So she was okay with that.

And kind of the question I had was which one of these is the norm? Because we've heard of both of these people as adults obviously, but we only hear about one of their development, and what I found was that the research shows that in fact in basically every sport, almost every sport, athletes who go on to become elite start with what scientists call sampling period. They play a wide variety of sports. They learn broad general skills that they later integrate. They learn about their interests. They learn about their abilities and they systematically delay specializing until later than their peers. So I thought that was kind of a good symbolic jumping off point for what I’ve then found in a lot of other domains.

[00:07:27] MB: It's so fascinating. One of my favorite examples from an early part of the book was this notion of chess, and it ties back to what you said a second ago, that in the early part or for most of human history really and the early part of the 20th century, the skill of winning it chess was all about this deep specialization or the memorization of tactics. But then you talked about this new form of chess that’s emerged called free chess or freestyle chess. Can you explain what that is and how the skillset of being successful at that game is completely different and really relates to the theme that we’ve just explored?

[00:07:59] DE: Yes. So to give a little background on that, chess in fact is an activity, traditional chess, is an activity where early specialization is really important. I definitely don't claim in the book that everything benefits from this breadth or this range. So a lot of things do. But chess, the grandmasters advantages in chess is based on recognition of recurring patterns, essentially.

So if you haven't started studying patterns by age 12, your chances of reaching international master status, which is one down from grand master, drops by one in four to about one in 55. So you got to be studying those patterns early because, again, that is the advantage. But computers are much better at recognizing patterns than humans are.

So once we had computers with sufficient power, they blew humans away, most notably in 1997 when Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov, the best chess player in the world. But Kasparov recognized in the way the computer played something called Moravec's paradox, which is this idea that humans and computers or machines often have opposite strengths and weaknesses. So, Kasparov said, “You know what? I wonder what would happen if we teamed up humans and computers.” And so he helped launch what's called freestyle chess tournaments. In freestyle chess, a computer can play on its own. A human can play on his or her own. But also humans can play with other humans and with other computers, whatever you want. You can play however you want.

To his surprise, the winner of the first big tournament was neither a grand master nor a supercomputer, nor a grand master with a supercomputer, but a pair of amateur chess players with three normal laptops. Somehow, this combination, it turned out that freestyle chess required a totally different skill set than traditional chess. Basically, the computers, you could outsource all of the years of pattern study to the computer, and then the job became thinking about much higher level strategy. Instead of sort of these tactical patterns, thinking about how do you manage the little battles to try to win the war and how do you process streaming information from multiple computers and direct them to search whatever you think is valuable.

So, Kasparov's conclusion was that these amateurs were actually better at coaching the computers than the grandmasters who were sort of used to a very certain type of play were. So those amateurs, they beat the best. They were playing the highest level of chess ever seen, and this is sort of a theme in what is most automatable. So the fact that chess – Chess is amenable to early specialization, because it's based on recurring patterns, and that is exactly what makes it relatively easy to automate.

So we’re kind of in this work era where the things that are most based on repetitive actions and repetitive thinking and repetitive solutions are the quickest to be automated, and the uniquely human skills are this sort of much more big picture, broader sets of skills that require integrating knowledge. So I thought that was a good symbol of kind of where the work world is going, and we’ve seen that in other industries as well, where the years of specialized repetitive experience can be outsourced in a flash, and it makes the entire challenge completely different.

[00:11:09] MB: I just thought that was a really succinct and great analogy of what's happened in today's world and the skills that are required to be successful in the 21st century.

[00:11:18] DE: And this isn't just for sort of chess used to be viewed as kind of the epitome of human cognition, right? But that's not really the case, because obviously it can be passed to computers pretty quickly. But we’ve seen this in all sorts of other places too. When I was going back and looking at – So, in Newsweek's cover of the Kasparov Deep Blue back when Newsweek was one of the largest magazines in the world, the cover was the brain's last stand, right? This was viewed as this sort of showdown. Would a human still have anything to add?

And when I was going back and looking at coverage of technological innovation and disruption, you'd see this constantly. Like there was his big TV series about ATMs when they first debuted, and tons of articles that were all about others, a few hundred thousand bank tellers in the United States and they’re all going to go out of business overnight, because now we have ATMs.

In fact, what happen instead is that there are more ATMs in the US. There was a rise in bank tellers, and that happened because, first of all, the ATMs made each bank branch cheaper to operate, and that meant banks could open more branches. So fewer tellers per branch, but more branches overall. But it completely changed the job from one of repetitive cash transactions, to one where that's all handled by the ATM. And the bank teller is essentially a customer service representative, and a marketing professional, or a financial advisor. They turned into these individuals with a much broader and often including soft skillset instead of someone who specialized in these repetitive transactions.

So those kind of freestyle chess transitions, they really abound all over the place and in domains that actually have had more AI and more computers, job growth has been greater, but it's changed the job to one that requires these broader sets of more integrative skills. If you can do that, then you’re well-positioned for the future.

[00:13:14] MBI love that phrase, broader sets of more integrative skills. But one of the things I really enjoyed about Range is that – A question I've pondered for years is how to apply the method or the lessons of deliberate practice to skills or fields, like business, where the feedback loops are often long, or murky, or even counterintuitive. And you had a great discussion in the book that really brought a new level of clarity for me about understanding this, which was around this distinction between what you call wicked domains and what you call kind domains. I’d love you to explain that.

[00:13:50] DE: Yes. So those are terms coined by the psychologist, Robin Hogarth. And to explain kind domains, again, we can go back to something we've talked about already. Chess is a good one, and golf is a really good one. So a kind domain or a kind learning environment is one in which all the necessary information is clear. The next steps and goals of what you should be aiming at are very clear. Nothing is hidden. Every time you do something, you get automatic feedback that is both immediate and accurate.

So, again, you can think of something like golf where you hit the ball and you see exactly what happens. The feedback is immediate and accurate, and you essentially try to do the same thing over and over with as little deviation as possible. Some of the people that study it actually kind of classify golf as almost like an industrial task. And chess, it's a huge store of previous data. Information is clear. You’re seeing recurring patterns and you see what happens right away, basically, and kind of being accurate.

But again – So those domains, kind learning environments or kind domains are amenable to specialization, because the challenge doesn't change. Work next year will look like work last year. The problem is we've extrapolated those to other areas of work, like the business world, and golf and chess happened to be really poor models of most things that people want to learn, because most of the things we want and need to learn now in this much more dynamic work world are what Hogarth would call wicked learning environments.

Where you aren’t just given all the information that you need, and some will remain hidden, human behaviors involved. The next steps in the goals you're aiming at aren’t just clearly laid out for you. When you do something, you may not get feedback at all, or you may get feedback that's delayed, or you may get feedback that's completely inaccurate.

Matt turns out to be kind of the norm for most of the things that most of us want to do. In fact, in these wicked learning environments, doing the same thing over and over can often have really perverse unintended consequences. One of the examples that Hogarth liked to use was of this – He used a lot of examples from medicine, and one of the examples was this doctor in New York City who got famous because he would predict over and over correctly that patients would develop typhoid, and he could do that just from feeling around their tongues or palpating their tongues with his hands. And over and over, he got it right before they showed a single symptom. So he became rich and famous for doing this over and over.

But years later, one of his colleagues observed that using only his hands, he had been a more productive carrier of typhoid than even typhoid Mary. It turned out that he was actually spreading the typhoid by touching patients tongues with his hands. The feedback he was getting was telling him that he was right over and over again. So he did it more and more and more and more.

Most of us might not be in that wicked of a learning environment, where the feedback actually enforces the exact wrong lesson. But most of us are not in a situation like chess or golf. Most of us are playing what Hogarth would call Martian tennis, where we know things are happening. We see people playing. We can try to interpret what's going on, but nobody just hands us the rules, and they can change at any moment. So work next year might not look like work last year. My guess is, for most people listening, the domain they’re in, they can count on work next year looking like work last year until the end of their career.

[00:17:10] MB: One of the great tools or strategies that you talked about to be more effective at playing Martian tennis or navigating these wicked learning environments were, as you call them, Fermi problems. Tell me a little bit more about how we can use that tool and other tools to become more effective at operating and learning and improving in these wicked environments.

[00:17:30] DE: Yeah. So they’re Fermi problems. Named after Enrico Fermi, the great physicist who led the creation of the first sustainable fission reaction, and they’re called Fermi problems because Fermi found it really useful. First, he would sort of screen some of the people he’d work with, but he also himself found it really useful to make large-scale estimates really quickly so that he could tell if he was kind of going on the right track. So, Fermi problem is one in which you aren't given a lot of information. But you have to kind of use things that you’re already familiar with to try to break down a problem and get a sense of where you should even start to think, essentially.

So one of the well-known ones that I actually got on a college chemistry exam, at time I had never heard of it, but is to ask how many piano tuners there are in New York City. So I literally had this question on a on a college chemistry exam. And the thing is it sounds difficult and kind of obscure. And if first, most people's instinct is just to say like, “Gosh! I don't know. A thousand? 10,000?”

But the point, what you really want to do, is break the question down into all of these tiny chunks that you can actually deal with, with things that you know. So you say like, “Okay, how many people live in New York City? It’s about 9 million. Obviously, everyone doesn't own a piano, and it's probably only families that own pianos. And how large is a typical family? I don’t know. Four, five people.

So, how many families do I think there are in New York City? I guess that would mean – I’m trying to do this in my head. Like, 1 to 2 million. How many families do you think own pianos? I don't know, between one and five and between one and 10. So that would leave you with like something like 50 to 150,000 pianos. And then you ask, “How often do they need to be tuned, and how many pianos can a one tuner tune I a day?” So you go through these estimates, and the thing is none of them has to be particularly accurate for you actually to come out with a pretty good estimate at the end.

So I think based on what I was saying, it would be something in the hundreds of the number piano tuners who can serve all the pianos in New York City. And Fermi found this incredibly useful when he was starting out with a problem of trying to think through where should he start. What direction should he head? Is something that he's trying to do feasible or not feasible? And he used that a lot in development of the first controlled nuclear explosions.

When you're dealing with these problems, these more wicked problems where you don't – You can't just go look it up or you don't have previous experience where you know the answer. Someone can just tell you the perfect answer. Using these sort of broad estimation skills can really sort of help you kind of define the Martian tennis playing field so you sort of know where to start. It's also incredibly valuable for – Like once you start getting used to Fermi estimation. I’d refer anyone who's interested. Go online.

There's a college course called Calling Bullshit that the University of Washington had put up its syllabus online, and one of the classes is about using Fermi estimation to understand really quickly that certain stats you’re being fed on cable news are maybe technically accurate or being completely miss portrayed essentially.

So it turns out to be a really useful skill for the wicked world. Just taking these problems instead of reacting with intuition, trying to break them down into constituent parts and get a sense of what you're dealing with, since no one can really tell you. I hope that makes some sense. Nobody's asked me about that before actually interestingly, I mean, in all of the interviews of done about this book.

[00:20:58] MB: That's fascinating to me, because to me that was maybe one of, if not the most important concepts and chapters in the entire book. And there are some amazing themes and ideas in there. But just this notion that it's something that I think the whole project of this podcast is all about the same quest to teach people these broadly applicable reasoning tools and the way to actually think about the world and how to interpret in today's world. There're so much misinformation and data out, and “data out there” that can be interpreted a bunch of different ways. It's such an important problem to think about how do we shape our minds and think more effectively in these wicked environments.

[00:21:37] DE: I think it's such a great tool. And you're totally right. And it’s such a broad tool, right? So, when I was at Sports Illustrated or ProPublica. When I was doing investigative work and when I'm evaluating scientific papers, like I’ve kind of practiced Fermi estimation when I can.

So, if I get curious about something I see in a newspaper and suddenly I want to know – I don't know. Like how many – I mean, one I was doing the other day was – I was talking to somebody. I was trying to guess how many NCAA track and field athletes throughout in the United States. So it doesn't matter what I was trying to guess. But when I do that, instead of trying to Google it right away, I'll try to do Fermi estimation, and I’ve noticed that once you try to do it, it starts coming naturally to you.

So, instead of just using your intuition, you start doing it whenever you see numbers. And it's been so useful to me when, say, if I'm working on an investigative piece when someone is giving me stats that are misleading. And maybe I only have the one interview to be talking to someone, and so I have to kind of make some estimates in my head while it's going. And you can pretty quickly figure out if they’re really misleading you or if a scientific paper is kind of maybe not portraying it's data very well, or if a business is pitching its data in a way that isn't really representative of what's going on.

I’ve found in readily useful, but it took some sort of practice, where instead of Googling something right away that I’m interested in. I try to actually go to that process of breaking it down into these things that I do know and see if I can get the right order of magnitude.

[00:23:03] MB: It's so funny, and I don't want to keep harping on this topic, but it is really important. And we have a couple great previous interviews that talk about how to decode scientific studies and see through some of these things. So we’ll make sure to include those and the information around the calling Bullshit course in the show notes for listeners to be able to dig into that even more.

Another topic that I thought was almost parallel to this, and there's many recurrent and related themes in the book, obviously, but the story of Kepler and the toolset of thinking by analogy, to me, really mirrored Fermi thinking in many ways and I thought was a great skillset to solve complicated and confusing challenges in today's world and these wicked learning environments.

[00:23:44] DE: Yeah, and I think – So, the story, just in a nutshell, the story of Kepler. And I studied astronomy in college, and so I'm prone to use stories of astronomers. But, essentially, Kepler kind of invented astrophysics in the sense that when he started his astronomical investigations in the 16th century, astronomers thought that the heavens were – Like all heavenly bodies were riding on these invisible crystalline spheres and you just couldn't see them, but everything did the same thing for eternity, and that there were these souls inside of the planets that caused them to move how they did and all these sorts of things. He started to see things that didn't comport with that.

Like he saw a comet go across the sky in Europe and said, “Wait. Why haven't –” Like really close to the earth, and he said, “Okay, why didn’t that break the crystalline spheres?”

He kept having questions about things that didn't fit. Like he saw a supernova, which is the light from the death of an exploding star, basically, and said, “Wait, but nothing is supposed to change in the heavens. So something seems wrong.”

He pretty soon realized that you for 2,000 years, before him, essentially, these were the beliefs about the universe. And all the sudden he realized that some of them are probably wrong. But he didn't have anything to go on, because he was so far outside of traditional knowledge that he didn't really have much to work with. So he turned to analogies saying, “Okay.” He noticed that the planets had different motion based on their relation to the sun. He said, “Gosh! Is there something about the sun that is causing the planets to move in these patterns?” Of course, it is. It's the Sun's gravity.

But there wasn't even a concept of gravity as a force at the time. There wasn't a concept of any forces that work throughout the universe at the time. So he would say things like, “All right. Well, maybe it's not the sun, because the sun can't be touching all of the planets, right? The planets were supposed to have their own souls that move them around.”

But then he'd start to think and say like, “Well, is it possible to affect something without touching it?” And he just read about magnetism and he said, “Magnets affect things without touching them. So maybe it is possible.” He said, “Maybe, in fact, it's the sun's light, because there are some force that would have to show up at the planet to cause it to move, but you couldn't detect anywhere between the source and the planet, and light is like that, and you shine it from a source, and you can't detect it until it hit something. So, maybe that was proof of concept.”

Basically, I don’t want to draw the story out too much, but he just started going from one analogy to another of trying to decide what was possible in the universe, essentially. And by the end, he essentially figured out that there were laws according to which the planets moved. He even laid down kind of a precursor to gravity and figured out that the moons affect the tides and things like that, which even Galileo made fun of him for thinking, but he was correct.

So he was the first person who sort of took the heavens out of the realm of kind of mythology. And so the day two work based on physical laws, and because he was doing this novel problem-solving, right? This wicked problem solving where he couldn't just look at past patterns. He had to try to draw analogies from other areas of the world. And that turns out that analogies are basically one of the most important tools for creative problem-solving.

So, one of the researchers I write about in Range, a guy named Kevin Dunbar, spent a huge amount of time in scientific labs figuring out why some do and some don't make breakthroughs. Essentially, what predicted breakthroughs – Breakthroughs usually came when a lab – Something happened that wasn't expected. At first they would think it was wrong or a mistake or some equipment was broken or something like that. If it kept showing up, they would then say, “All right. There’s something real here. What we do with it?”

What predicted whether a lab would make a breakthrough or not was essentially the number and breadth of analogies that they could draw on to try to start thinking about how to attack a problem. So, in labs that had only experts in sort of one field. One of the labs he studied was all E. coli experts. They didn't have baton of range to bring different analogies to the problem.

In others, there'd be like a med student and a physicist and a chemist and an undergrad and all these sorts of things, and those labs were much more likely to have breakthroughs, because they would start tossing out all of these analogies for thinking and something would resonate with the structure of the problem they were facing. And that would give them kind of an approach to take. This shows up all over the place.

So, the problem is I think our structures work against people developing these thinking skills. So, when I went to spend time with a woman named Deidre Gentner, who’s probably at Northwestern University. Probably the world's expert in using analogies for problem-solving. She came up with this test, a test site how well people can solve problems outside their sort of area of specialization, basically. Problems they haven't seen before, essentially.

And she tested on Northwestern students, and what she found was plenty of them were pretty good or quite good at solving problems that they had already seen in whatever their major was. But when it got out of something they'd seen, the students who did the best for these ones who didn't have a major, they were in this program called the integrated science program, where they just had lots of little minors that taught them how different disciplines approach problems. So they did the best. Then when I went around and talk to her colleagues, they would say, “Yeah, we don’t really like that program, because those kids are falling behind, because they don't have a real major.”

So here you have the world's expert in this kind of very important problem-solving saying, ‘Here are the kids we’re doing the best with,” and her own colleagues saying, “Yeah, but they're getting behind.” So that to me was sort of one of the kind of perverse outcomes of our drive toward specialization, where we can look at the people who are actually doing the best problem-solving and say, “Yeah, but they’re behind.” That seems crazy to me.

But anyway, we don't – Normally, when people think in analogies, we think in the first one that comes to mind. It’s like Kahneman's availability heuristic, whatever dramatic analogy comes to mind. And actually the science is pretty clear that if you want to be a more creative problem solver, what you should do is come up with an enormous number of analogies. Like come up with as many as you can from as many different domains as you can that seem to have a structural relation to the problem you're working on, and it has an enormous impact on people's ability to successfully creatively solve problems.

[00:29:55] MB: That was such a great chapter. And another example that I thought was really interesting was the – I think thing is called Dunkner’s or Duncker’s radiation problem.

[00:30:05] DE: Yeah. Yeah, do you want me to – I can give Duncker’s radiation problem, but I feel like I've already like rambled too much on analogies.

[00:30:11] MB: No. No. No. It's such a great toolset and such an important thinking tool that I think it's worth sharing Duncker’s radiation problem really quickly so that people and get a sense of how you can – Because you can have the realization in real time as you explore that to see how simple they can be.

[00:30:27] DE: Yeah. So, Duncker’s radiation problem is, “Okay. Everyone try to solve it ready.” It's basically you’re a doctor and you have a patient who has a deadly tumor in his stomach and there's a kind of array, a medical array, like a radiation, that can be pointed at the tumor and can destroy the tumor.

The problem is at low intensity, the ray will arrive at the tumor and not destroy it. But at high enough intensity, to destroy the tumor, the Ray will also destroy all the healthy tissue that it passes through on the way to the tumor. So, how can you save the patient by destroying the tumor without damaging any healthy tissue in the process? So that's the question. If you are in the actual study, you'd get more time to think about it.

But while you're thinking about that, here’s another story. Many years ago, a general wanted to capture a country back from a brutal dictator, and to do that he had to capture a fortress in the center of the country. And he had plenty of troops to be able to do that, and there were roads that lead to the fortress radiating out like spokes on a wheel from that fortress. The problem was they were narrow and they were strewn with mines.

So, he walked all – The general walked all his troops down one of those roads. A lot of them would be killed by the mines and they might not be able take the fortress when they got there. So, the general said, “You know what? I'm going to split up my troops into smaller groups so they can walk down the road without setting off the mines, and then we’ll spread them around the various roads and synchronize our watches and we’ll arrive at the fortress at the same time.” So that's what they did and they overtook the fortress.

So in some famous problem-solving studies, almost nobody gets the first radiation problem initially, but then about a third of people get the radiation problem after they've also been told that story that I just told and they have some time to think about it. And now here comes a final story after which most people eventually solved the first problem. So, in this final story, there’s was once a small town. There's a fire in a small town in a barn and it was in danger of spreading to houses nearby, but it was near a lake. So neighbors came out and started getting buckets and throwing water on the fire while it was still smaller. But they couldn't get it to go out.

Eventually, the fire chief showed up and said, “Okay. Everybody, stop what you're doing. Go fill your buckets with water and then come back here,” and he arranged them in a circle around the fire and said, “1, 2, 3, we’ll all throw once,” and they did that and dampened the fire and soon it was out and the fire chief got a raise.

So after people get that story, actually, the majority of people solved the initial story. So, again, you're not getting as much time as a person would in an actual study. But the answer is that you can arrange the medical raise in a circle, essentially, around with the center being the patient's tumor, and you can have each individual ray pass through healthy tissue at low intensity, but they all converge at the tumor in high enough intensity to destroy the tumor.

So, the point of this study was to test how much giving analogies structurally similar to structurally similar problems improve people's problem-solving. And it turned out to be that it took the groups – It took people from almost no one solving the initial problem to most people solving the initial problem, and this is kind of a theme in studies of creative problem-solving where if people can come up with relevant analogies, they are vastly more likely to come up with a successful solution to a problem.

[00:33:59] MB: Hey, I'm here real quick with confidence expert, Dr. Aziz Gazipura to share another lightning round insight with you. Aziz, how can our listeners use science to get more dates with people they really want?

[00:34:13] AG: I love that question, and the answer is the science of confidence. So whenever we’re struggling, we want to date. We’re afraid to put ourselves out there. We’re worried on some level that we’re going to get a negative response. If you didn't have that worry, if you knew that this person you’re going to ask out was going to say yes and be excited to go out with, we’ll all be doing it without hesitation.

So the thing that stops us is anxiety, is fear, is self-doubt, and that is a confidence issue. So if we build our confidence, all of a sudden we’ll have way more opportunities to put ourselves out there and to date. So sometimes we think, “What's the pickup line? What’s the thing I should say? How do I approach the person?” We get so focused on the how, and what we want to do is we want to take a step back and say, “How do I actually change what’s going on inside of me to feel more confident?”

There are so many ways we could do, and I have a course called Confidence University where I have a whole course on dating mastery. But one major tidbit out of that one is right now you have a story in your mind about why you're not attractive. Why someone wouldn’t be over the moon to go on a date with you? You want to find that story and take it out, uproot it.

So right now think about why you not attractive and how can you change that story to see yourself as someone who’s actually highly desirable? What are your qualities? What do you bring to a date or a relationship that would make someone love spending time with you? If you get more clear on that, all of a sudden a lot of your anxiety and fear are going to evaporate.

[00:35:40] MB: Do you want to be more confident and get more dates? Visit successpodcast.com/confidence. That’s successpodcast.com/confidence to sign up for Confidence University and finally master dating.

[00:35:58] MB: I want to switch gears and discuss another theme or idea from the from that I thought was so important, which is this notion of switchers being winners and how changing direction sometimes, which we are doing now in the conversation, can be really beneficial.

[00:36:16] DE: Yeah. So, there's a lot of evidence that when people switch, and particularly we’re talking about jobs or what they study, that they are doing so in response to information about what economists call match quality, which is a term for the degree of fit between an individual’s abilities and their interests and the work that they do. That turns out to be incredibly important for their sense of fulfillment, for their performance, and this importance of sort of doing some quitting in search of match quality shows up in a whole bunch of different areas of research.

From higher ed, so one of the studies I enjoyed, was an economist who saw a natural experiment in the higher ed systems of England and Scotland. In England, in the period he studied, students had to specialize in their mid-teen years to decide what program of study to apply to. And in Scotland, they could continue sampling different programs of study all the way through the end of university, and his question was, “Who wins the tradeoff? The early or late specializers?” The people who have to pick early or those who can kind of try different things and do some quitting or what scientists call sampling, since it’s less derogatory.

It turns out that the early specializers do jump out to an income lead, because they have more domain-specific skills. But the later specializers get to try multiple different things, and in doing that they get better sense of what opportunities are out there and also or their own abilities and interests. So when they do pick, when they do settle on something, they have faster growth rates.

So by six years out of university, they fly past the early specializers in income. And then the early specializers quitting their career tracks in much higher numbers, basically because they were made to choose so early and not allowed to quit that they chose poorly more often. I should say when they did quit anyway, even though they had huge disincentive from doing so, they then had faster growth rates.

So, quitting, there's a lot of evidence that it is in response to this information that there's actually something better for you to do. The so-called Freakonomics economist, Steve Levitt, who I’m sure a lot of people know, he actually ran this really interesting experiment where people agreed to make major life choices based on the results of a coin flip.

What the most common question that people asked in this study was should they change their job. So the people who got the flip, who flipped the coin and the coin indicated they should change their job, and they did change their job. Those people ended up better off than those who simply followed the coin flip who were already at the point of questioning whether they should make a change. So, that is something they came in with.

But if they got the coin flipped that said don't change your job. Those people ended up worse off. Because, again, our moves are usually made in response to match quality information. So, I think some of the popular concepts we think about, like grit, which is one that’s really popular. We should not take those to mean that strategic quitting is a bad thing. In fact, Angela Duckworth, the researcher most associated with grit.

The same week my book came out, I subscribed to her newsletter. The title of her newsletter was Summer is for Sampling, and she said, “Young people during the summer should try a bunch of different things ,and you don't want to be gritty and not quit before you know what you should be doing.” And she actually said that it took her a decade of moving through various things to figure out where she should focus and put her energy in.

So, we actually need to try stuff and be allowed to quit stuff if we want to find match quality. And match quality has an incredible impact on your happiness, and your performance, and your persistence. So as one of the researchers told me, “When you get fit, it looks like grit.” Meaning if you get people in a situation with high match quality, they will display the characteristics of grit like work ethic and persistence even if they didn't before. So I think that's a pretty important way to think about some of these concepts.

[00:40:12] MB: Such a great concept from the book and something that, in today's world, so many young people feel the need to specialize rapidly and to not give up, and yet the opposite strategy can really be beneficial. Even the notion that you talked about later on was this idea of experimenting and exploring a myriad of possible selves that you might have in the future. Tell me a little bit more about that and the importance of running small experiments and tests as supposed to laying out grand plans for your future.

[00:40:47] DE: Yeah, that's interesting. That came from this section of the book focused on the work of a woman named Herminia Ibarra, who essentially studies how people find good career fits for themselves and how they transition between careers. Her work really resonated with me, because like I was living in a tent in the Arctic. I was training to be a scientist when I decided for sure to become a writer, and I still and now have no idea what I'm doing next.

So, she gave one of my favorite quotes in the book, which is, “We learn who we are in practice, not in theory.” And what she means by that is that there’s this huge industry of personality quizzes and career gurus who sort of want to deliver simple advice that's like, “Take this quiz and then just introspect into yourself and march confidently forward that you know what you should do.”

But what Herminia meant when she said we learn we are in practice, not in theory is that the actual research shows that we are not so good at introspecting into ourselves and understanding our abilities and interests and our opportunities without actually going out and trying stuff. So we learn who we are in practice by doing stuff. As she says, act and then think. You want to do things and then reflect on it and kind of go forward triangulating a fit for yourself that way.

And so the way that she found – She and a pair of Harvard researchers whose work I write about called the Dark Horse Project. This is, again, about – This about people who find fulfilling work. They both found that the way that people who do find fulfilling work proceed is via small personal experiments. So, we may think of career changing or finding careers is taking these big leaps or setting out a 10 or 20-year goal or something like that. But that's kind of the opposite of the norm.

So, in this this project at Harvard, the Dark Horse Project, the reason it's called the Dark Horse Project is because when the subject came in for informational interviews early on, they would all say like, “Well, don't tell people to do what I did, because I started in this one thing, and then I switched, or I dropped out of law school, whatever, and took me a while to figure out what I should do.” And some of them said, “It turned out the thing that I wanted to do wasn't actually available. So I had to become an entrepreneur. But I came out of nowhere and I was lucky. So don't tell people to follow my advice.”

And the large majority of them would say stuff like that. So they viewed themselves as having come out of nowhere. That's why it got the name the Dark Horse Project. But their common trait – And there were a few people who followed. There were some people who followed like a linear career path, I should say. It was just a small minority.

Most of them had this habit of mind where instead of saying, “Here's what I’m going to do in 10 or 20 years.” They'd say, “Here's who I am right now. Here are my skills and interests. Here are the options in front of me. I'm going to try this one right now, and then maybe a year from now I’ll change because I will have learned something about myself.” And they just keep viewing their opportunities as these little chances to experiment about their own skills and interests and their options in the world and they just keep going forward, bouncing from one to another until they triangulate a spot that sort of works for themselves.

That resonated with me so much that I decided to sort of proactively start doing it. So I actually started something I call a book of small experiments, where at least every other month I basically like I did when I was a science grad student. I put on a hypothesis about something I think I'll enjoy, or that I think will help my skills, and then I find some way to test that.

Whether that's taking a class, whether it's talking to somebody who knows things that I don't, or engaging in some kind of new project, and keeping that book kind of forces me to keep doing those experiments. I have to say, it’s been like one of the most valuable things I've done. Even for this book, Range, which I’ve written two books and I try to make those books projects that are kind of at the limit of my skill level at that time.

One of the things that really helped me with Range was for one of my experiments, I got stuck with – I was having trouble organizing the information in Range to make the whole thing coherent and not just seem like a bunch of magazine articles stapled together. So, I decided some fiction writers are incredible structural magicians. So I said, “All right. I’m going to take an online beginner’s fiction writing class and see if that will help me with my structure problems.” So, that was kind of my hypothesis that it would help.

So I go to this beginner’s class. Nobody cares what anybody's done. Most of the people have never published anything. So I'm out of my comfort zone. In fact, I didn't really get what I expected from that class, which was structural help. But in one of the exercises, we had to write a story with no dialogue whatsoever. And something about doing that exercise flipped a switch in my head where I said, “You know what? In my last two years of magazine writing, I've been sort of leaning on quotes,” and you want to do that in investigative writing, like I was doing. The lawyers especially want to do that. Put things in –Let people say things in their own words.

But I had taken it over to working on Range and I was often using quotes when I didn't totally understand something. So, sort of papering over it. If I don't understand it, the readers certainly not going to understand it. I was using quotes in lazy ways. I went back and realized what I had to understand better and took out a huge number of quotes from the book and replaced them with my own narration that I thought was more clear and more simple than the quotes.

It was kind of scary in a way that it didn't occur to me what I was doing. I was in such autopilot until I took this class, and it kind of knocked me out of my normal rut of competence and showed me something that I could do better. So, it’s these experiments like that that at least every other month I do something. It's not always as big as taking a class, but I'm totally committed to my book of small experiments, because I think it's kind of like whether you're looking for a new career or not and trying to find your interests.

Basically, if you’re going to the gym every day and lifting the same number of weights the same number times every day, you might not get worse, but you won't get better. I think that's the mode a lot of us get in when we become competent. We do the same thing over and over and over, and that's not the way to get better.

So, for me, the book of small experiments is both about finding new interests in the world, but also about making sure I'm not doing the same thing over and over and over, because whether that's a motor skill or cognitive skill, for the most part, we know that you need what's called variability. Basically, variable practice, in order to get better at something, which means you need to be changing up what you're doing constantly.

[00:46:50] MB: Great example, and touching briefly on this notion of variable practice, you had a great discussion in the book around this notion of the Japanese concept of bansho, or the idea of using connections questions and making connections questions. Tell me briefly about that that topic or that idea.

[00:47:09] DE: This is interesting. You’re asking me about things that I've done a lot of interviews and very few people have asked me about some of things you're asking me about. So, kudos to you for latching on to some things that others aren't and reading carefully.

Bansho is a Japanese word that essentially describes – Well, not essentially. It does describe a form of writing on the blackboard that charts like the intellectual journey of a class across numerous ideas. So if you walk into a Japanese math classroom, you'll see – There’s not like the overhead projector. You'll see a blackboard that is like the size of an entire classroom wall, essentially, and each of the kids has a magnet with their name on it.

And the entire class period will often be one question that the class works on together, but they start out and the teacher will ask for a volunteer to come up and come up with an idea for approaching the question. The kid will come up to the blackboard and put their name magnet next to what they start writing and they'll show an idea. And maybe it will be right and maybe it will be wrong. Then someone else will be asked to come up with a different idea for approaching the problem.

So you'll have multiple streams of approaches to the problem going on at once, and students coming up one after another saying, “Well, what could be a next step? Okay. What could be a different next step?” By the end of class, you had multiple approaches, some right and some wrong to this one problem that draws in a number of different concepts for math. So this is called – This is an attempt to impart what researchers who study learning called making connections knowledge, where through a single problem, you're forced to draw together concepts from different areas of math, and that's stands in contrast to what’s called using procedures knowledge, which is essentially just learning how to execute algorithms or tricks. A lot of people call them over and over and over.

This gets at what I think is one of the important kind of sub themes of Range, which is that sometimes the things you can do to cause the fastest rapid improvement, which is doing this – Using procedures practice, causes improvement really rapidly can actually undermine your long-term development. So making connections knowledge comes slower, but it's much more flexible. And we can actually even impart it in some more simple ways than bansho.

So, here's a study that just came out that didn't come on time for the book, but is on a concept that I use in the same chapter you’re talking about, and this concept is called interleaving. This is a form of studying that all explain. So in this this study, seventh grade math classrooms were randomly assigned to different types of math learning. Some were assigned to what’s called blocked practice, where you get problem type A, A, A, A. Problem type B, B, B, B, C, C, C. So on, and you practice the procedure over and over and over. And the kids get really fast, really good at this really quickly. They make progress. They rate their own learning as being good. They rate their teacher as being really good.

Other classrooms got assigned to interleave practice, where instead of getting A, A, A, B, B, B and all that, you get like A, D, E, C, F. You get problems as if all problem types were thrown in a hat and randomly drawn out. In that situation, the kids at first are frustrated. Their progress is slow. They rate their teacher as worse. But instead of learning how to execute procedures, they are being forced how to learn how to match a strategy to a type of problem and to connect concepts to the type of problem as supposed to just like executing a procedure.

And come test time, all the classes took the same test. The group that had interleave training destroyed the block practice group. The effect size was like on the order of taking a kid from the 50th percentile and moving them to the 80th percentile, and that's all because the learning was structured to make it more difficult and to force the learners into conceptual thinking instead of using procedures thinking. So that’s just another way to accomplish what's going on in those Japanese classrooms.

But again, gets at this theme of the thing that you can do to make learning feel the fastest and easiest may actually be bad for your long-term developments. I highly recommend if people are trying to learn anything, they should interleave it essentially. Instead of trying the same thing over and over, mix it all up. You'll feel worse. You'll feel more frustrated. You'll do worse at first, and in the long run you'll do much, much, much better.

[00:51:22] MB: Such a great concept, and that's why I wanted to dig into it and explore it. So, we've covered a lot of different themes and ideas today. It's been a really interesting conversation. For listeners who want to start somewhere, who want to concretely implement something from our discussion, what is one piece of homework or action item that you would give them to begin implementing some of these themes and ideas?

[00:51:44] DE: I mean, I would tell them to start a book of small experiments personally, and you don't have to do every other month like I do. Maybe start like once a quarter, where you take time to assess something that you think you could get better at, or something that you might be interested in but you don't know, and make your hypothesis of how you could get better or how you could explore this interest. And then go test that. What's an experiment that I can do to go test that? I’d say try to stick to that and really do it. So I’ve found that to be incredibly fruitful.

The other thing I would say is – This relates to something we talked about. But we didn't touch exactly on it, but it kind of relates to analogies. Whenever you're thinking about a project that you’re going to take on, to some degree, whether explicitly or implicitly, you are going to make predictions about how that project is going to go.

One of the kind of errors that people make when they do this is they focus very tightly on the details of their own project and they try to make predictions. That’s called the inside view. What you actually want to do is look at the basic structure of the project you're thinking about and then depart from it and go try to find a bunch of other structurally similar projects and see how those ones went. That's what you should base your estimate on. That's called the outside view.

So it’s using analogies to other similar projects and not focusing on the internal details, and you'll be much, much more accurate. So I would highly recommend that kind of thinking, and that's explained in one of the chapters on using analogies for thinking, in chapter 5, as it relates to investors predicting return on investment, to prediction of revenues of movies and all these other things. So there're some good examples of how it can be applied to basically like whatever you want to apply it to.

[00:53:27] MB: The whole concept of the outside view versus the inside view and base rates and all of that probably could be an entire episode that we could dig into.

[00:53:35] DE: For sure.

[00:53:35] MB: But, unfortunately, I know we’re running out of time. For listeners who want to find you, find the book, find your work online, what is the best place for them to do that?

[00:53:43] DE: Davidepstein.com is my website, and @DavidEpstein on Twitter. And I just started an infrequent newsletter that kind of has a bunch of stuff that I learned in the reporting of the book, but they couldn't fit in there, but that people might be interested in. There's a signup on my webpage if so. Of course, it's free and usually short and pretty infrequent.

[00:54:02] MB: Well, David, thank you so much for coming on the show, for sharing all these wisdom. It's been a great conversation. I really enjoyed reading range. It was a fantastic book, and I hope people will go check it out.

[00:54:13] DE: Pleasure is all mine. Thanks for having me.

[00:54:15] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you, our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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Thanks again, and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.

September 05, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making
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How You Can Stop Distraction Right Now with Nir Eyal

August 15, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Focus & Productivity, Decision Making

In this episode we talk about one of the MOST important skills in the modern world - the ability to be inDISTRACTable. Are you sick and tired of distraction? Do you feel constantly overwhelmed in a world of notifications, demands, messages, and more and more information flying at you? In this episode we discuss exactly how you can battle back from distraction, control your attention and choose the life you want using the power of being “indistractable” with our guest Nir Eyal.

Nir Eyal is an expert in “behavioral design” having worked in both advertising and video gaming helping companies build and create more engaging products. Nir is the Wall Street Journal bestselling author of the book Hooked: How To Build Habit Forming Products and has been featured in Forbes, Psychology Today, and more. Nir is an active angel investor and currently writes to help companies create good habit and behaviors in their users on his blog NirandFar.com.

How to be Indistractable  by Nir Eyal.png
  • How do we deal with distraction in today’s world?

  • Why don’t we do what we say we’re going to do? Why do we do the things we know we shouldn’t do?

  • What is “akrasia” and how did the greek philosophers deal with the challenge of distraction?

  • Many of the “folk psychology” remedies to distraction don’t actually work

  • If there is no knowledge gap, why don’t we follow through? Why don’t people do what they need to do?

  • Most likely you know what you want to do. It’s also equally important to avoid the things you don’t want to do.

  • How do you become “indistractable"?

  • It’s about CONSISTENCY over INTENSITY to achieve anything.

  • What gets in the way of consistency moves you away from your goals.

  • If you don’t focus on the CORE reason you’re getting distracted you won’t solve the issue.

  • What is the job of a knowledge worker?

  • What is the output of knowledge work? Problem solving. Coming up with novel solutions to hard problems.

    • What improves problem solving.. FOCUS and CREATIVITY.

  • "The psychology of distraction”

  • What is distraction? What isn’t distraction?

  • The opposite of distraction is NOT focus, the opposite of distraction is TRACTION. And both words end in ACTION.

    • Traction and distraction are ACTIONS, things we DO, not things that happen TO US but things we DO.

  • “The time you plan to waste, is not wasted time."

  • EXTERNAL TRIGGERS are NOT the DISTRACTION

  • Everything we do is about the avoidance of discomfort. In psychology this is called the “homeostatic response."

  • This means time management is pain management.

  • To begin, we have to master our internal triggers.

  • One of the most common distractions in the workplace are OTHER WORKERS

  • Distraction is the third leading cause of death in the United States!

  • How nurses at UCSF made a simple yet earth shattering change that saved thousands of lives by removing external distractions, reducing prescription mistakes by 88%!!

  • What can you as a knowledge worker do to prevent being distracted during deep work?

  • The FOUR core strategies to combating distractions

    • Deal with internal triggers

    • Make time for traction

    • Hack back external triggers

    • Reduce distraction with pacts

  • They must be done IN ORDER to create the biggest impact

  • The self help industry has sold you a lie that if you’re not happy you’re not normal. Our species evolved to be perpetually perturbed.

  • The basic human condition is wanting, craving, desiring MORE. It’s baked into us from evolution.

  • Mindfulness and meditation is fantastic when you can’t get rid of the internal triggers. The first question you should ask yourself before you meditate is can you change the SOURCE, can you FIX the problem?

  • Fixing the internal source of your discomfort is one of the most powerful strategies

  • How do you cope with internal triggers when you can’t fix the source of the discomfort?

    • Re-imagine the trigger

    • Re-imagine the task

    • Re-imagine your temperament

  • Powerful lesson and strategy you can use from acceptance and commitment tendency: "surfing the urge."

    • Write down your urgent on paper

    • Explore your sensation with curiosity instead of contempt

    • “The ten minute rule” - for ten minutes, explore that sensation. Set a time for 10 minutes, and then give into the distraction after the 10 minutes.

  • Self compassion is a cornerstone of achievement and an essential component

  • Blamers and shakers - typical ways we distraction are problematic

  • "You can’t call something a distraction unless you know what it distracted you from."

  • The myth of the todo list. The magic to do list fairy doesn’t exist. Your to dos are your OUTPUTS not your inputs. They have nothing to do with your inputs. You can only control and schedule the INPUTS. That’s what you need to focus on.

  • Think of scheduling work like baking a loaf of bread, the inputs have to be on your calendar, like flour and yeast and water, if you don’t have all the ingredients and don’t have all the inputs, then you won’t get the OUTPUTS (ToDo’s/Goals).

  • Schedule everything you want to spend time on, good, bad, fun etc - and when you’re NOT doing that, you’re being distracted.

  • Homework: Know what you WANT TO DO with your TIME.

  • Homework: Realize you have power, control, and agency to put distraction in its place in your life.

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This week's episode of The Science of Success is presented by Dr. Aziz Gazipura's Confidence University!

You can learn to confidently connect with others, be bold, feel proud of who you are, and create the life you truly deserve!

What Would Your Life Look Like If You Have Double The Confidence?

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Nir’s Website

    • How to be More Productive and Focus (+ Free Schedule Maker)

    • Learn How To Avoid Distraction In A World That Is Full Of It

  • Nir’s LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter

Media

  • Indistractable Book Site

  • Author Directory on Medium, TechCrunch, The Next Web, Hackernoon, and Quartz

  • Optimizely Blog - Nir Eyal on Habits, Experimentation, and Becoming Indistractable By Robin Pam

  • Psychology Today - Acceptance and Commitment Therapy

  • CNBC - The professor who wrote the book on making addictive technology is having second thoughts by John Shinal

  • TED Radio Hour - Nir Eyal: How Easy Is It To "Unhook" Ourselves From Our Devices?

  • GrowthHackers - AMA: I'm Nir Eyal (@nireyal), author of "Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products" Ask me anything!

  • [Podcast] Ezra Klein - Is Big Tech addictive? A debate with Nir Eyal.

  • [Podcast] Intercom - Nir Eyal on designing healthy habits – and the psychology behind them by Adam Risman

  • [Product] Product Love Podcast: Nir Eyal, Author of Hooked

  • [Podcast] How to Be Awesome at Your Job - 330: Becoming Indistractable with Nir Eyal

Videos

  • Nir and Far Blog - Indistractable: How to Master the Skill of the Century

  • Nir and Far Blog - The Truth about Kids and Tech: Jean Twenge (iGen) and Nir Eyal (Hooked)

  • Be Inspired - HOW TO BREAK THE BAD HABITS - Try it and You'll See The Results

  • TNW - Nir Eyal (Hooked) on Mastering the skill of the century | TNW Conference 2018

  • Tom Bilyeu - Addictive Behaviors - Nir Eyal | Inside Quest #28

  • Almost Everything - Social Media business model |HOOKED by nir eyal| almost everything

  • Productivity Game - HOOKED by Nir Eyal | Core Message

Books

  • Amazon Author Page

  • Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life by Nir Eyal

  • Hooked: How To Build Habit-Forming Products By Nir Eyal

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than four million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we talk about one of the most important skills in the modern world, the ability to be indistractable. Are you sick and tired of distraction? Do you feel constantly overwhelmed in a world of notifications, demands, messages and more and more information flying at you? In this episode, we discuss exactly how you can battle back from distraction, control your attention and focus and choose the life you want using the power of being indistractable with our guest, Nir Eyal.

I’m going to tell you why you’ve been missing out on some incredibly cool stuff if you haven’t signed up for our e-mail list yet. All you have to do to sign up is to go to successpodcast.com and sign up right on the home page.

On top of tons subscriber-only content, exclusive access and live Q&As with previous guests, monthly giveaways and much more, I also created an epic free video course just for you. It's called How to Create Time for What Matters Most Even When You're Really Busy. E-mail subscribers have been raving about this guide.

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Sign up for my e-mail list today by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the home page, or if you're on the go, if you're on your phone right now, it's even easier. Just text the word “smarter”, that's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222. I can't wait to show you all the exciting things you'll get when you sign up and join the e-mail list.

Do you know what you should be doing and yet you don’t do it? In our previous episode, we dug into the science behind why this happens and how exactly you can overcome this massive obstacle. No one is ever actually stuck, but the reason you feel stuck is because what you want, your goals, desires, changes you want in your life, etc., are bumping up against an emotional roadblock or subconscious limiting belief. It’s like having one foot on the gas while the other slams down on the brakes.

In our previous interview with Dr. Sasha Heinz, we shared what you can do to finally overcome that fear and anxiety and transform your life. If you want to finally get unstuck, listen to our previous episode.

Now for our interview with Nir.

[0:03:27.4] MB: Today, we have another awesome guest back on the show, Nir Eyal. Nir is an expert in behavioral design having worked in both advertising and video gaming, helping companies build and create more engaging products. He is the Wall Street Journal bestselling author of the book Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products, has been featured in Forbes, Psychology Today and much more.

Nir is an active angel investor and currently writes and helps companies create good habit and behaviors in their users on his blog nirandfar.com. Nir, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:03:58.9] NE: Thanks, Matt. Great to be here.

[0:04:00.6] MB: Well, we’re excited to have you back on the show. We loved our previous conversation. You’ve got a new book coming out that is really interesting and I think a critical topic in today’s world especially.

[0:04:12.9] NE: Thank you. Yeah. It’s really great to be back. It’s been a while, but the new book has occupied my brain for the past five years now. I’ve been working on this new book and I’m finally out of my writing cave and ready to tell others about what I learned.

[0:04:25.3] MB: Well, it’s really funny. I was watching one of your speeches on YouTube doing a little bit of research about the book, and you opened with a blooper reel of people on their phones walking into objects and stumbling into things. Embarrassingly, I literally not even a week ago I was walking and I was reading something on my phone and I literally smashed my head into this extended deck that didn’t have – there was nothing on the ground, but it was elevated. I just walked right into it.

Yeah. Fortunately, no major damage or anything, but it was eerie to see that then on the video a couple days later and just be like, man, we really are – I mean, distraction and know it’s hitting home for me.

[0:05:05.4] NE: Yeah, the struggle is real. I thought you were going to tell me that you hit your head while you’re watching the video. That would’ve been the ultimate irony of ironies there.

[0:05:11.5] MB: That would’ve been a supreme irony. No, sadly. Either way, I think as you put it, this whole distraction crisis is something that just every day, almost seems to be getting worse and worse and worse. It’s hard to see through the fog and see how do we get out of it.

[0:05:28.4] NE: Yeah. Well, that’s a big part of what this book is about. I mean, this topic has been covered from a lot of different angles. I know, it’s frankly a topic I wanted an answer to and didn’t find an answer I liked, because every other book on this topic basically puts the blame squarely on technology, right? Every other book I’ve read, I’ve read dozens and dozens of books on this topic, because I don’t like to write books that have already been written. I only write books that I can’t find that properly address the problem that I am facing in my own life.

When I looked for a book to answer this question I had of why don’t we do what we say we’re going to do? Fundamentally, why do we get distracted, whether it’s a technological distraction, or any other sources of distraction, why don’t we do what we say we’re going to do and why do we do the things that we know we shouldn’t do. After five years of researching this topic, originally I thought – I originally started thinking that these books must be write, that it is the technology that’s the problem. When I tried the solutions in these books, like digital detox, or a 30-day plan, it didn’t work. I tried them and they didn’t –

Not only that, the more I researched them, I found that the scientific literature actually doesn’t really support many of these folks, psychology remedies to distraction. We really have to dive deep to understand what distraction is all about.

[0:06:40.1] MB: I love that phrase, folk psychology, because there’s so much of that in today’s world. It’s fascinating once you start getting into the science and really trying to figure out what actually works and how can you implement this and how can we really overcome these problems and challenges? You touched on something a second ago, which I think is really important as well, which is this idea of I think in the book, you call it akrasia, right? Which is this notion. Explain a little bit what akrasia is and why it’s such an important concept.

[0:07:09.6] NE: Yeah. I was surprised to find that distraction is an age-old concept that in fact, Socrates talks about akrasia, this tendency that we have to do things against our better interest. This was 2,500 years ago. Literally, people were complaining about how distracting the world is these days. I just thought that was a really refreshing reminder that Facebook didn’t create distraction, our iPhones didn’t create distraction. This is a part of the human condition.

That led me to explore, well what is it about the human psyche that trips us up this way? I mean, why is it? To me, it’s such a fascinating question. If we know what to do, if there is no knowledge gap, why don’t we follow through, right? We all know if we want to have a good-looking body, we have to exercise and eat right. I mean, do you need to buy a bodybuilding book, or a nutrition book to tell you that? We all know that chocolate cake is not as helpful as the healthy salad. We know that if you want a healthy relationship with your friends and loved ones, you have to be fully present with them.

We know that if you want to do really well at your job, you have to do the work, especially the hard work that other people don’t want to do, or aren’t willing to do. We don’t need to buy self-help books that tell us all this stuff we already know. If that’s the case, if there is no information gap, we actually do know what to do. Why don’t we do what we say we’re going to do?

That was really the basic question of this book, because what I have come to believe is that most people out there do already know what it is that they want to do, but they don’t realize that it’s equally important to know how not doing the things you don’t want to do. That’s really what becoming indistractable is all about. The term indistractable, I made up the word. The nice thing about making up a word is that you can define it anyway you like.

To become indistractable means you become the person who strives to do what they say they’re going to do. It means you live with personal integrity. You’re as honest with others as you are to yourself. If you can do that, if you can become indistractable, I mean, isn’t that a superpower? I mean, imagine what we could accomplish if we actually did everything that we said we’re going to do.

[0:09:16.9] MB: That’s a great framework and a way of looking at it. It reminds me of something that some of my intellectual heroes, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger talk frequently about, how their strategy is not necessarily to be smart, but it’s to be less stupid and minimize a lot of the negative decision-making traits and ideas and so forth, so that they can – if you eliminate a lot of the bad possibilities, then suddenly, your decision-making quality improves, even without you doing super difficult, genius, incredible novel things. It’s the same approach, right?

That’s what you’re talking about, which is there’s so many things we know we don’t want to be doing them and yet, how do we create structures in our life to actually predictably and systematically start to minimize those things that distract us and create negative behaviors?

[0:10:01.7] NE: Absolutely. I mean, that is exactly spot on. It’s really about consistency over intensity. In so many aspects of our life, if you want to be more healthy, if you want to have better relationships, if you want to do better at your job, it’s not about, “Oh, I read this book that gave me this amazing new breakthrough technique that’s the flavor of the week and I’m going to implement it right now.” It’s about consistently performing the job, or the activity at hand for the rest of your life, right? That’s where excellence comes from. It’s not about these fly-by-night ideas. It’s about consistency over intensity. What gets in the way of consistency is distraction.

[0:10:36.4] MB: That’s another great framework. I’ve heard that concept and idea so many different times. I’ve never heard it exactly put so succinctly, the notion of consistency versus intensity. Even coming back to the example, which we’ve talked about in many episodes on the show, because it’s such a crystal clear one, but you brought it up as well, the idea of weight loss or healthy lifestyles, being healthy.

It’s not rocket science what you need to do and yet, people don’t do it. One of my mentors in the fitness world told me something about meal plan or diet, which is basically adherence trumps everything else. If you can’t adhere to it, it doesn’t matter. At the bottom of the pyramid of most important things, whether it’s calories, macros, meal timing supplements, whatever, the number one thing is adherence.

[0:11:22.1] NE: Right. Exactly. Should it be any different for these current dilemma that we face around distraction, that the same exact rules apply. This is why I’ve been so dissatisfied with the other books that have come out in this category, because they all tell you, just put away the technology, go in a 30-day detox, do this 30-day plan. It doesn’t work. I tried them and they don’t work. I got myself a feature phone that did nothing but send text messages, receive phone calls, no apps. I got myself a word processor from eBay from the 1990s that had no internet connection and I still got distracted, right?

I got rid of all the technology. I thought that was the problem and I still got distracted. Why? Because there were these books behind me and this bookcases that I just wanted to read that one thing that might be helpful for work, or let me just clean up my desk for a second. I probably should throw out the trash. The trash needs to be taken out. I constantly got distracted, because I wasn’t focusing on the core issue that was causing me to get distracted.

I didn’t understand the psychology of distraction. Just like, I used to be clinically obese at one point in my life. I remember I would do these fad diets. I would go on these 30-day fad diets and then you know what happens on day 31, right? It all comes back, because you eat with a vengeance. That’s exactly what happens with our technologies these days and these distractions. If we don’t learn how to manage the use of these products – look, we need them for our livelihood.

It’s very easy to say, “Oh, get rid of your technology when you don’t have a social media account.” Some authors don’t, do write about this topic, which I think is really ironic. That wasn’t helpful. I want to know how I can live with these technologies and yet, make sure that I can get the best of them without letting them get the best of me.

[0:13:03.3] MB: It’s so fascinating that you try to – you actually did get rid of these things and you still got distracted. I find that really interesting. I want to expound upon, or explore something you touched on a minute ago that ties into all of this, which is this notion that in today's world with this distraction crisis that we're facing, it really is a superpower if you can be indistractable, because the things that are going to be rewarded are things that benefit from and are derived out of focus and deep work and creativity. That's where all the value is being created in today's economy. If you're constantly distracted, you can never get to that place.

[0:13:40.8] NE: That's right. That's right. I mean, if you think about okay, what is the job of a knowledge worker? I would put, it's very clear if you work on a factory line on what your output is, right? You're making widgets, you're baking bread, whatever it might be, you can see your output on a production line. For knowledge workers, what is our output? Our output is problem-solving. Our job in one form or another, whether it's through customer service, whether it's through design, whatever it might be, our output in whatever format it takes is creating and coming up with novel solutions to hard problems. It turns out that without doing focused work that becomes very hard to do.

How do people do it? Well, they do it after work, right? They do e-mails and meetings all day long. Then at night is when they do the actual work of work, when they actually come up with novel ideas to hard problems. That is let's say, suboptimal to say the least, because there is always a price to be paid. The price to be paid comes out from the people we love. It comes out of time with our family, it comes out of time with friends, it's leading to this loneliness epidemic in this country, that there are fewer and fewer people can say that they have close relationships.

A big part of that is because we just don't spend the time that we need with people who make us feel good, because we're just so busy these days with work that spills over out of work, out of work hours, I should say. This affects so many different facets of our life. I mean, I think last but not least is our relationship with our kids. Many parents I speak with complain about how their kids are so distracted these days with Fortnite and Facebook and they're yelling at them to put these devices away as they're looking at e-mail on their iPhones.

We're hypocrites. As parents, we need to become indistractable first and foremost. I say this as a father myself of an 11-year-old. We need to set the example for our children and help them become indistractable by first becoming indistractable ourselves.

[0:15:44.7] MB: Let's unpack this a little bit more. I want to dig into as you called it a minute ago, the psychology of distraction. Tell me more about that. I want to start unpacking a little bit more.

[0:15:55.5] NE: Sure. Let's define what we mean by distraction. To understand what distraction is, we have to understand what it is not. What is the opposite of distraction? The opposite of distraction is not focus. The opposite of distraction is traction. Both words come from the same Latin root, trah are, which means to pull. You'll notice that both words end in the same five letter word, action. Traction and distraction both end in action, reminding us that traction and distraction are things that we do. They are actions we take, not things that happen to us.

Traction is any action you take that pulls you towards what you want, things that you do with intent. The opposite of traction is distraction. This is an important framework to get into our heads. We can think about it like a horizontal line with two arrows pointing to the right and to the left.

This is important for a few reasons. One, it frees us from this moral hierarchy that what some people do with their time is somehow morally inferior to what other people do with their time. It drives me nuts when people say, “Oh, those video games. What a waste of time. That's a bad thing to do with your time,” but me watching that football game, that's fine. March Madness, that's perfectly fine. Me wasting time on watching the sixth hour of Fox News, or MSNBC, that's okay. You playing video games or Candy Crush or social media, not okay. It's ridiculous, because they're both pastimes and there's nothing wrong with your pastimes, whatever it might be, as long as it is time that you plan to spend.

There's a quote in the book. I can remember who said it, but it's a great quote that the time you plan to waste is not waste of time. Anything that you plan to do with intent is traction. Anything that is not traction, that takes you off track from what you plan to do with intent is distraction. Similarly, I mean, in the same vein many tasks that we think are worky, right? That feel we should be doing, can also be distraction.

One thing that constantly got me before I learned how to overcome it was sitting down on my desk and saying, okay, it's time for me to do some focused work, it's time for me to write this chapter in my book, or to finish this presentation, but let me just for a minute scroll e-mail for a minute, or let me just check that Slack channel, or I'll Google something. That feels worky, right? That's a good thing to do. It's something I have to do anyway at some point, right? No, that is just as much of a distraction if that is something that you did not plan to do with intent.

You've got traction on the right, you've got distraction on the left, on the horizontal axis. Now I want you to think about a line bisecting that horizontal axis vertically, okay? Now you have a line, a big plus mark now in your head and you've got almost the four points of a compass north, east, south and west. Now you've got the south and the north. We haven't talked about those two. We already did traction-distraction, but what about the two other points, the top and the bottom of the vertical line?

At the bottom, I want you to place external triggers. External triggers are things that move you towards traction or distraction, by giving you some piece of information in your outside environment. This is where all the pings, dings, rings and things that we have all around us every day can either move us towards acts of traction, things we want to do, or distraction. If your phone buzzes and says, “Oh, it's time for that workout, or it's time for that meeting you planned, or it's time to read a book,” or whatever it might be that you plan to do with intent, well now it's moving you towards traction.

If you receive a buzz on your phone that gets you to do something you didn't plan to do, if you're working on a hard assignment, or your e-mail is buzzing you and now it's moving you towards distraction, because that is something you didn't plan to do. Then finally and most importantly, and this is where we really get into the weeds around the psychology of distraction that the north part of this plus mark right at the top is internal triggers. Internal triggers are these things that prompt us to action just like external triggers, but where the source of the internal trigger comes from within us.

One of the mantras I want everyone to remember here is that by and large, distraction starts from within. These internal triggers are uncomfortable emotional states. They are feelings, negative valence states that we feel that we don't want to experience. If we really back up a bit to think about the first principles around not only why do we get distracted, but why do we do anything? The answer is not what most people believe. Most people believe that the nature of motivation is some form of carrots and sticks, right? It's about pain and pleasure. Freud's pleasure principle.

It turns out that neurologically speaking, it ain't true. That neurologically speaking, it's not about the pursuit of pleasure and the avoidance of pain. Turns out the way the brain gets us to do everything and anything is through the avoidance of discomfort. Everything we do is about the avoidance of discomfort. This is of course called the homeostatic response, and so whether it's a physiological sensation, if you feel cold you put on a coat, if you feel hot, you take it off, if you're hungry, you feel hunger pains, you eat. If you are stuffed and you ate too much, well you stop eating, because that feels uncomfortable. Those are physiological states.

The same is true for psychological states. When we're feeling lonely, we check Facebook. When we're uncertain, we Google. When we're bored, we check Reddit, or stock prices, or sports scores, or the news, or YouTube. All of these things cater to these uncomfortable feelings, even the pursuit of pleasure, right? Even wanting to feel something that feels good is itself psychologically destabilizing, right? Wanting, craving, the urge, a desire. There's a reason we say love hurts. Neurologically speaking, it does in fact hurt.

Everything we do, even the pursuit of a pleasurable sensation is driven by the desire to escape discomfort. That means if all our behavior is driven by a desire to escape discomfort, that means that time management is pain management. If we are really to get to the bottom of why we do or don't do the things we know we should or should not do, we have to start with these internal triggers. We have to master this discomfort that prompts us to either traction or distraction.

[0:22:30.9] MB: So many great points and things that I want to explore more. One of the most important things I think you've said is this notion that distraction is not about the external triggers, it's the action that we take. It's not something that comes from the outside. It's something that comes from us.

[0:22:47.7] NE: Right, right. By and large, there are clearly external triggers can drive us to –

[0:22:52.7] MB: Or inaction.

[0:22:54.4] NE: Right. The knee-jerk reaction is just to think about the external triggers. Even there, most people will think about the pings and dings on their phone and their computer, we don't realize how many external triggers there are in the outside environment that have nothing to do with technology. In my research, I found that one of the most common sources of distraction in the workplace is other workers, right? It's the scourge of the open floorplan office where someone can come by and say, “Hey, I just heard this office gossip. We have to talk about this. Come on, let's talk about this,” when you're in the middle of a big project. That is just as much of a pernicious source of distraction as anything you might get on your phone.

There are ways to deal with that. One of the ways that you deal with is you hack back these external triggers. One thing that is unique about this book is inside the book, there is a piece of cardstock. Actually, let me back up. Can tell a quick story here? Let me digress for just a minute.

[0:23:45.4] MB: Absolutely.

[0:23:46.6] NE: This research about external triggers is really interesting. There's an anecdote I tell in the book about the third leading cause of death in the United States.

If I were to ask you, what's the third leading cause of death in United States, I'll give you the first two, number one is heart disease, number two is cancer. The third leading cause of death, if it were a disease, it's not Alzheimer's, it's not accident, it's not stroke, third leading cause of death in the United States of America is prescription mistakes. People being given the wrong medication, or the wrong dosage of medication by healthcare practitioners inside hospitals. 200,000 Americans are harmed every year by this completely preventable human error.

Now most hospitals in America just say, “Well, what are you going to do? It's the price of doing business. Not much we can do about it.” Until a group of nurses at UCSF decided to get down at the bottom of this and trying to figure out what was going on. Why are so many people given the wrong medication by healthcare practitioners? They discover that the source was distraction. That nurse practitioners primarily, when they were dosing out medication on their medication rounds were being interrupted by their colleagues. Somebody would come up to them and distract them, typically one of their colleagues, a doctor, or a fellow nurse.

What was interesting about this study is that the people dosing out the medication and making these errors didn't realize that they were making the errors until it was too late by and large. That's exactly what happens to us as knowledge workers. We don't even realize how much better our performance could be if we could focus on one task at a time, just like these nurses who were dosing out medication and didn't realize they were making an error until it was too late. We as well don't realize how much better our work could be if we just simply focused on a task for a substantial period of time.

What was the solution? What did these nurses do? They actually found a solution to this dilemma that reduced prescription mistakes by 88%. 88% reduction in prescription mistakes. Their solution was not some multi-million dollar technology. Their solution was plastic vests. Plastic vests that said, dosing rounds in progress. That's signaled to their colleagues that these nurses were not to be bothered while they were dosing out medication. This reduced prescription mistakes by 88%. Unbelievable.

I translate this lesson from these nurses into what we as knowledge workers can do every day inside these open floor plan offices. Back to what I started to talk about earlier, every copy of indistractable inside the book comes with a cardstock sheet that you can pull out, fold into thirds and place on your computer monitor. I call this a screen sign. The screen sign says in bold letters, “I'm indistractable. Please come back later.”

Now you don't leave this up all day long. You only leave this up maybe 45 minutes at a time to signal to your colleagues that right now I'm doing focused work. I can wear headphones to do that. No, you can't, because people have no clue if you're watching YouTube videos, or listening to ESPN, podcasts, or whatever.

It's much better to send a very clear explicit signal that you are not to be disturbed during this period of time. You will find that your performance will improve markedly when you have that focused work time to not be interrupted, not just by the obvious interruptions of your technology, but also from the less obvious distractions like your workplace colleagues.

[0:27:21.3] MB: Such a great example and that story about the pharmacist is amazing. Even the practical, bringing that all the way back to something people can implement right now today in their offices is such a great framework, such a great strategy.

[0:27:34.4] NE: Thank you. Yeah, it's worked. I use it in my home. I work from home and it's even effective, even if you don't work in an open floor plan office. When my kid comes into my office here, she also has to know that I can't be distracted. Even my child can be a distraction, and so we use – actually, my wife bought this $5 light-up crown that she wears. It looks a little ridiculous, but it works like a charm, because before your words can come out of your mouth to interrupt her, you see – we call it the concentration crown. “Okay, sorry. I know you're concentrating right now. I won't bother you.” It's a very, very effective technique.

[0:28:08.5] MB: That's awesome. I want to come back and unpack a couple of the things about internal triggers as well and how we can manage our own psychological states and deal with the distraction and so forth that comes internally. Before we do that, I want to explore and finish unpacking external triggers. What are a few of the other strategies that we can use, or implement to make it more difficult for us to get distracted?

[0:28:31.4] NE: Sure. The four parts, just we talked about the north, east, south and west four parts of this model. Just to recap those, the first step is to master internal triggers, the second step is to make time for traction, the third step is to hack back external triggers and the fourth step is to prevent distraction with pact. That's the strategy. I mean, the tactics here are less important. Whether it's a screen sign, whether it's this app or that app, those are all tactics. The book is full of tactics. There's lots of tactics out there.

What's even more important is the strategy. Tactics are what we do, strategy is why we do it. My contribution I think to this field is that now we can have a clear picture as to why we get distracted. I would constantly get distracted day in and day out and not realize why, or do anything about it, right? What's that definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.

Like an idiot, I would constantly get distracted day after day and not do anything about it. That's where I think this model is helpful is to finally be able to picture, “Oh, okay. Was it an internal trigger that I need to deal with and find a better way to cope with that discomfort? Was it that I didn't make time for traction? Was it that I should have hacked back that external trigger that distracted me? Or can I use a pre-commitment, or a pact to prevent distraction?” Those are the big four strategies.

By the way need, to be done in order. A lot of what I discovered in my research is that if you do these out of order, like a lot of people have heard about pre-commitments, making some bet with a friend to make sure they do what they say they're going to do, these type of tools have been around for a while. In fact, they can backfire if you don't first take care of the other step. It's very important you do these in order.

[0:30:17.2] MB: In that case, let's back up and start – come back to internal triggers and talk a little bit more about how do we deal with those. I love what you said earlier about this idea that in psychology, everything is fundamentally about the avoidance of discomfort and the homeostatic response. I wanted to explore a little bit more, even this notion you shared that time management is pain management. Tell me a little bit more about all those and how that comes back to helping cope and deal with internal triggers, since that's the first of the four core strategies.

[0:30:48.5] NE: Yeah, yeah. This is the hardest one to deal with, I'll be honest, because the other ones are more tactical. This one requires us to face the icky, sticky uncomfortable truth that we use these devices to escape ourselves. I think managing these internal triggers starts with dispelling this notion that somehow if we're not happy, if we're not satisfied, then something's wrong with us. Nothing could be further from the truth.

What I want folks to realize is that the self-help and personal development industry has sold us this lie, because it makes them a lot of money that if we're not happy, we're not normal. That is just not true, that our species evolved to be perpetually perturbed. That's how we advanced, right? We need dissatisfaction. If there was ever a tribe of homo sapiens who was happy hunky-dory and satisfied with life and didn't want more and didn't feel these internal triggers to spur them to want more, if that tribe ever existed, our predecessor has probably killed them and ate them, because they wouldn’t have survived.

The first step is to realize that feeling bad isn't bad. It's normal. That is the baseline human condition is wanting, craving, desiring more. Now we can either use that for good, right? We can use these internal triggers, these uncomfortable emotional states to help us do more, to be better, to help us discover life-saving medicine, to help us overturn despots, to reach for the stars, all of these things come from a desire to want more.

We need to harness that power to do one of two things; we can use that power to either change our circumstances and change the source of the internal trigger, or where we can't change the source of that discomfort, we need to learn methods to cope with that discomfort. I think over the past few years, I talk about in the book very, very briefly. It’s one sentence. I talk about how I will not be talking about meditation or mindfulness for the rest of this book. Not because these techniques don't work, but I think they've gotten too much airtime. That it's almost like in a way, behavioral economics versus conventional economics.

That most of human behavior is driven still by conventional economics. Incentives work and those incentives fall under conventional economics. Of course, behavioral economics explain some of the exceptions to standard incentivized behavior. The same goes when it comes to mindfulness and meditation. Those techniques are fantastic when we can't change the source of the discomfort. Let me tell you, we don't always want to meditate our problems away. Meditation is itself a form of psychological escape and we need that to some degree. There's nothing wrong with it, but we shouldn't go straight to that.

We should start by first asking ourselves, can we change the source of the discomfort itself? Can we fix the problem? Only when we can't fix the problem and we will always have these uncomfortable emotional states, that's when we need to learn techniques to cope with that discomfort. We either fix the source of the discomfort and I talk about in the book in the second half of the book, I talk about how one of the major sources of discomfort in people's lives is terrible workplace culture.

Many people work in work environments, which perpetuates these internal triggers, feelings of anxiety, depression, stress, fatigue are perpetuated by workplace cultures that are toxic. Those are the type of workplace environments that we have to fix that culture, because what do people do when they experience these uncomfortable emotional states? Well, they send even more e-mails. They call even more pointless meetings. They do behaviors that not only distract themselves, they distract their colleagues as well.

There's a big chunk of the book about how to build an indistractable workplace. That's where we fix the source of the discomfort. Then when we can't fix the source of the discomfort, I give three techniques for coping with these internal triggers, when we can't necessarily fix the source of the discomfort. These three techniques are all about reimagining these internal triggers. We can either reimagine the trigger, we can reimagine the task, or we can reimagine our temperament. Those are the three big categories for what we can do when we have an internal trigger that we can't necessarily fix the source of.

For example, I'll just give you one technique I use almost every single day. This technique comes out of acceptance and commitment therapy. By the way, nothing in the – I hate these self-help books that are, “Hey, I tried this technique and it worked great for me. Therefore, it will work for everybody.” No, no, no. That's not what my book is about at all. Everything in my book is peer-reviewed, studies that have appeared in academic journals. Most of it is old research, but applied to this new domain.

For example, this technique that comes from acceptance and commitment therapy of doing what's called surfing the urge. Here's how this technique works. When I sit down on my desk and I need to work on a big project, I need to write, I need to do something that I'm likely to get distracted while doing, when I find myself potentially getting distracted, so let's say something that used to get me all the time, now I know how to deal with it is this urge while I'm writing.

Writing is really hard work for me. While I'm writing, I'll just say to myself, “Let me just check that quick e-mail. I wonder if something came in, or let me just Google something. I need to do a bit of research here for a minute.” That's of course distraction, because it's not what I intended to do with my time.

What I used to do was to bully myself. I would have this negative self-talk of, “You see, you're so easily distracted. You have such a short attention span. You see, it's something wrong with you.” That's exactly the wrong thing. What we really want to do is to explore that sensation with curiosity, instead of contempt. Step one is we simply write down that sensation. I'll give you a link to a distraction tracker that is in the book as well, where all we have to do is simply note that sensation. Simply putting it on paper, feeling bored, okay. It sounds silly. It sounds simple. Incredibly effective. That's the first step.

Then the second step is to explore that sensation with curiosity, rather than contempt. Most people, their self-talk is horrendous. I know it was for me. If I talk to my friends the way I talk to myself, they wouldn't be friends with me anymore, right? We are oftentimes are our worst critics. What I've done now is to cultivate self-compassion, is to talk to myself the way I would talk to a good friend. In that process of self-compassion, what I'm doing is self-talk, something like this for example.“Oh, there I go reaching for my cellphone. I'm feeling fatigued. I'm feeling uncertain. I'm feeling fearful that nobody's going to like what I'm writing. I get curious about that sensation.

Then what you're going to do is for simply 10 minutes, this is called the 10-minute rule. Again, this comes from acceptance and commitment therapy, is for 10 minutes explore that sensation. For those 10 minutes, you have two choices; you can either get back to the task at hand, or just sit with that feeling. Once that timer is up and you can use your iPhone even to set a timer very quickly, just as serious at a timer for you for 10 minutes. Once that timer goes off, you can give into that distraction.

99% of the time, by the time that 10 minutes timer goes off, you will have forgotten that sensation. The sensation will have crested and passed away and you won't feel that internal trigger anymore and you'll be on to doing the work you really want to do. That's just one of many, many, many techniques in the book that I use every single day.

[0:38:28.7] MB: Awesome strategies and very, very detailed. Self-compassion is so important and something that's tremendously underrated. People think it's soft. People think it's woo, woo. It doesn't get talked about enough and we've done a couple episodes on it that are awesome that we'll throw to the show notes.

I think it's so important to just underscore that, that self-compassion is really a cornerstone of being a great achiever of achieving your goals of doing it you want to do and correlate of that that you talk about as well in the book is this notion that being self-compassionate, part of that too is when you fail, when you get distracted, it's okay. Getting back on the wagon is more important than just saying, “Oh, I got distracted,” and just giving up and blowing up the whole project.

[0:39:10.3] NE: Right. Absolutely. Absolutely. What we find is that most people fall into two categories. I call them the blamers or the shamers. The blamers say, “Oh, you see it's the technology that's doing it to me. The big bad technology companies are making me get distracted.” Those are the blamers.

The shamers go into this self-talk death spiral of you see, there's something wrong with me. I knew I probably have some obsessive compulsive disorder, or I have a short attention span, or an addictive personality. Look, some people really do have a pathology. There are people out there that do have obsessive-compulsive disorder, or an addiction, or whatever the case might be. Very, very small percentage. We're talking single digit percentages here.

The vast majority of people listening to me right now do not have such disorders and yet, we psych ourselves up. We tell ourselves that somehow we are dysfunctional in some way and the answer is neither of those things. The right answer is not to be a blamer, it's not to be a shamer, it's to realize that these are behaviors and our behaviors can change, if we know how to deal with these internal triggers appropriately in a healthful manner.

[0:40:09.8] MB: I want to come back to something that I've also heard you talk about that I think was really important from a thematic standpoint around the idea of distraction. That's this notion that coming back all the way to what we're talking about the beginning of conversation, the opposite of distraction is action. You have to have proactively, which is one of the I guess, the second pillar now that we're getting into, making time for traction. You have to proactively figure out what do you actually want to achieve. Because if you're getting distracted from nothing, then are you really being distracted at all.

[0:40:43.8] NE: That's exactly right. The way I phrase it as a title of one of the chapters is you can't call something a distraction, unless you know what it distracted you from. We have no right to complain that's something distracted us. If you can't show me on your calendar what it was you wanted to do with your time, right? I used to do this all the time. I used to have a big wide, open calendar and I had put in a big block and I'd say, work. Okay, today I work. Well, that's ridiculous. I used to bind to this myth, as I think many people still do. I call it the myth of the to-do list. That productivity experts tell us if you just put things on a to-do list, magically they'll get done somehow.

I don't know how that works. I don't know where the magic to do fairy exists to get your stuff done. It's ridiculous. Because your to-dos are your outputs. That has nothing to do with your inputs. If I were to ask a baker to bake me a hundred loaves of bread, he would say, “Great. Okay, where are the inputs, right? Where is the flour, where is the yeast, where's the factory, I need the employees,” all this stuff to make the hundred loaves of bread.

We knowledge workers, we don't ask that question. We just take orders from our boss, from our family, from whoever needs us to do stuff in our day and we put long to-do lists. Then most days, half the tasks get shipped over to the next day and the next day and the next day and they never get done. Because you have to put those tasks on your calendar, or they'll never get done.

This is part of this process that I talk about called syncing up with stakeholders, where we need to have this regular check-in with the various stakeholders in our life, starting with ourselves, right? Do you have time on your calendar to live up to your values? I say, you have to turn your values into time.

If I look at your calendar of your week ahead, not the week before, but the week ahead, can I see how you will live up to your values? I'm not telling you what your values should be by the way. If health is a value for you, if taking care of your physical body is important to you, then is that time on your calendar? If taking care of your spiritual health is important to you, is that time on your calendar? Is taking care of your intellectual growth, is that time on your calendar? That has to do with the domain of the you.

The second domain above that is your relationships. Are you making time for the important people in your life? Not just, “Okay, I'll see them when I see them,” but do you have time on your calendars on a regular basis to make sure that you connect with people you love? Your family, your friends, other loved ones, your community members. Is that on your calendar? Then finally when it comes to the workplace, we also have to make time for the important tasks in our day-to-day jobs.

Every knowledge worker I interviewed for this book, when I asked them, is focused work even important to you? Should I even write this book? Every one of them said, absolutely. I have to think. I have to in order to solve problems, come up with novel solutions to difficult problems, I need time to think. So few of us actually have that time on our calendars. We have to turn our values into time and actually put that time on our calendar. Now there's a free tool. I'll give you a link in the show notes. You don’t have to sign up. You don't even have to give me your e-mail. None of that stuff. It's totally free. I just kept getting asked this question of where do I make a weekly template? How do I even do that?

I built this tool that's completely free online. I'll give you in the show notes, where you can make what your ideal weekly template should look like, so that finally, you will know the difference between what is traction, things that are on your calendar, things that you're doing with intent and anything that you're doing that's not on that calendar is distraction. Now by the way, I get this question a lot around well, isn't some distraction good for you? No. Not according to this definition. What I think some people mean is diversion. Diversion can actually be good for you.

For example, if you want to divert your attention and let your brain just wander and relax, or become creative, great. Put time on your calendar to watch Netflix. Put time on your calendar to check Facebook. Put time on your counter to pray, or meditate, or just take a walk. Great. Do those things if they're consistent with your values, but do them on your schedule. In my schedule, every evening I have time to check social media. I love social media. There's nothing wrong with it, but I use it on my schedule, not on the app maker schedule.

[0:44:52.6] MB: Such a great point. I just made a note to myself to start thinking about how I can take everything that's on my to-do list and frame it into discrete blocks on my calendar when I want to be executing those things. It's absolutely, absolutely awesome strategy.

[0:45:07.4] NE: It does take a little bit investment of time. I'll warn you, it took me – the first time I did it, maybe 30 minutes. Then after that, it's only 15 minutes every week. Just to review it and make sure that you're making small adjustments, but a few things have changed my life and made me more productive, much more happy in my day-to-day life, closer to my family and my friends, than this simple act of making time for the things that are important to me on my calendar, down to the minute.

[0:45:29.1] MB: This is actually a lesson I learned from a good buddy of mine, Sebastian Marshall who's a previous guest in the show as well. He talks about there's as you start to measure and do this, there's a value in learning how much you can accomplish in let's say, a 30-minute block. You get better and better at estimating, okay, if I'm going to – I need to do X, well how much time should I really allocate to that? You start to get a lot more intuitive about understanding, okay, that's really going to be a two-and-a-half-hour task, or that's really going to be a 15-minute task, or whatever it might be. There's real value in understanding how productive you can be in a given time period.

[0:46:00.4] NE: Right, right. It only comes from this cycle of looking back at the week that passed, figuring out hey, did I go off-track? Was it enough time? Was it too much, or too little time? Then adjusting your calendar the next week, the template the next week based on what you learned the week before.

[0:46:16.3] MB: Exactly. If you don't measure it and you don't put on your calendar, then it's just going into a black hole and you have no idea what's happening.

[0:46:21.5] NE: That's right. That's exactly right.

[0:46:23.6] MB: We've talked about so many great ideas, concept, strategies, tactics. For listeners who want to concretely implement one thing coming out of this episode, what would be the first action step that you would give them to start becoming indistractable?

[0:46:39.3] NE: Well, I really think it's about this strategy more than any one specific tactic. It's about knowing the next time you get distracted, becoming indistractable, it doesn't mean you never get distracted. It means you know what to do the next time you get distracted, so you don't keep getting distracted by the same thing again and again every day. You can make sure that you can do what you really want to do as opposed to doing what other people want you to do with your time.

Because look, the fact is if you don't plan your day, if you don't know these techniques, there's no doubt that somebody's going to eat up your day, right? Whether it's the tech companies, with their distractions, or the demands of your spouse, or your kids, or your boss, somebody is going to eat up your time, unless you know what you want to do with it to make sure you don't get distracted.

The biggest takeaway are these four key pillars, right? Master your internal triggers, make time for traction, hack back external triggers and prevent distraction with packs. I think a macro theme here that I think is very important to realize is I really want to counteract this myth that I think is perpetuated by some folks in this space, that technology is controlling your brain, because the more I research this idea, one, the research just doesn't bear this out, that addiction, this idea of tech addiction is real for some people, right? People can get addicted to any analgesic is potentially addictive, but it's not the vast majority of us.

For the vast majority of us, it's not addiction. It's maybe overuse. When we call it what it is, which is at times overused, we can begin to take control over it, as opposed to just sloughing off responsibility.

The worst thing you can do is to say to yourself, “Well, there's nothing I can do, because the algorithms are hijacking my brain and they're addictive.” What we're teaching people is essentially learn helplessness, which is actually ironically giving these companies more power and more control than they deserve. The first step is to realize that we do have power, we do have control, we do have agency if we know how to put distraction in its place, we all can become indistractable.

[0:48:36.5] MB: Nir, where can people find you, your work and the book online?

[0:48:40.2] NE: Absolutely. My blog is at nirandfar.com. Nir is spelt like my first name, N-I-R. nirandfar.com. Information about the book Indistractable: How to Control your Attention and Choose Your Life. A book is sold anywhere books are sold. If you do get the book, even if you don't get the book, if you go to indistractable.com, there are all types of resources there. There's an 80-page workbook, there's that distraction tracker I mentioned earlier, there's the schedule maker, all of these tools, many of them free, whether you buy the book or not, all of that is at indistractable.com. That’s I-N-distract-A-B-L-E. Indistractable.com.

[0:49:17.9] MB: Well, Nir. thank you so much for coming back to the show, sharing all this wisdom, insights, ideas, incredible conversations, so many lessons. Thank you so much for joining us once again on the Science of Success.

[0:49:29.4] NE: My pleasure. Thanks so much for having me back.

[0:49:31.8] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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Remember, the greatest compliment you can give us is a referral to a friend either live or online. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave us an awesome review and subscribe on iTunes because that helps boost the algorithm, that helps us move up the iTunes rankings and helps more people discover the Science of Success.

Don't forget, if you want to get all the incredible information we talk about in the show, links transcripts, everything we discussed and much more, be sure to check out our show notes. You can get those at successpodcast.com, just hit the show notes button right at the top.

Thanks again, and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.

August 15, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Focus & Productivity, Decision Making
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Mental Fitness and Creating the Life You Want with Dr. Sasha Heinz

August 08, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Focus & Productivity, Decision Making

Do you know what you should do but you don’t do it? In this episode, we dig into the science behind WHY this happens and HOW exactly you can overcome this massive obstacle. No one’s ever actually stuck, but the reason you FEEL stuck is that what you want, your goals, desires, change you want in your life, etc, are bumping up against an emotional roadblock or subconscious belief. It’s like having one foot on the gas while the other slams down the breaks. In this interview with Dr. Sasha Heinz, we share what you can do to finally overcome that fear and anxiety and transform your life.

Dr. Sasha Heinz is a developmental psychologist and life coach, is an expert in positive psychology, lasting behavioral change, and the science of getting unstuck. She received her BA from Harvard, her Ph.D. in developmental psychology from Columbia, and her master’s in applied positive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania, where she also served as a faculty member.

  • Education is good. Application is better. Transformation is best.

  • Focus on mitigating mental disorders vs focusing on happiness and mental health

  • “The neurotic paradox"

    • You know what to do, yet you’re not doing it

  • Focusing your life around “optimal human functioning”

  • If you aren’t doing something, you aren’t going to see different results.

  • Do you ever know what you SHOULD do, and yet you don’t do it?

  • “The biography of your beliefs” shapes how you think, perceive, and ultimately act in the world.

  • Beliefs —> Emotions —> Actions

  • Your emotional brain is much more powerful than your logical brain

  • Your thoughts create your reality, but there are other factors, namely your emotions.

  • No one’s ever actually stuck, but the reason you FEEL stuck is that what you want (your desire, change, etc) is bumping up against an emotional roadblock or subconscious belief (often from your childhood).

  • Thoughts are just things you picked up from your childhood, from life randomly

  • Are you actively directing and engaging the direction and amplitude of change in your life?

  • If you want to know WHY you’re not moving forward, pay attention to what you’re feeling

  • Your thoughts are totally optional. You have the autonomy to decide what you want to believe about yourself.

  • What’s the difference between a belief and an emotion?

  • “We do all sorts of crazy things to avoid feeling our feelings"

  • Do you ever get sucked into “emotional Novocain:” overeating, over-drinking, over gaming, social media, porn, etc to avoid your feelings?

  • You have to work at both ends of the psychological spectrum simultaneously - healing wounds and trauma, and focusing on optimal human functioning

  • As you start to take better care of your self physically and mentally, it becomes easier to heal trauma and improve

  • Personal development is not a linear process, it’s a geometric or exponential process, small edges and life changes stack together and multiply, every single behavior compounds and works together

  • Do a deep inventory of your current belief systems. What were you taught about yourself? What were you taught about your potential? What did you believe about your health, competence, intelligence, lovability, etc as a child? Conduct a “belief blueprint” of yourself.

  • You have one foot on the gas, that’s your neocortex, and you have one foot on the brake, that’s your emotional cortex saying “that’s way too scary."

  • Often a coach of a psychologist can help you uncover those beliefs and figure out what is making your emotional brain freak out?

  • First, start with an inventory and start identifying the thoughts that are bouncing around in your head.

  • THEN, once you’ve started identifying them, you begin to break them down.

  • It’s very very difficult to capture the thoughts that are driving your emotions and behaviors.

    • You will likely notice the emotion or behavior first.

    • Ask yourself “what am I doing here?"

    • If my BEHAVIOR is a result of my emotions.. and my emotions are a result of my beliefs...

      1. WHY AM I DOING THIS BEHAVIOR?

    • “Woah.. why am I procrastinating?” Why am I doing this?

    • “I'm procrastinating because I’m anxious"

    • What am I thinking that’s generating that anxiety?

  • When you’re doing something you don’t want to do… pause and reflect.. and ask yourself “WHY AM I DOING THIS BEHAVIOR?"

    • ASK: "What am I feeling right now that’s making me do this?"

      1. Because this behavior is because of an emotion. What emotion am I feeling?

      2. Procrastination is almost always some form of anxiety.

      3. What feeling am I trying to MITIGATE with this action?

  • Develop an understanding of what you do when you’re anxious or scared.

  • The action that comes out of negative emotion is very narrow.

    • Fight

    • Flight

    • Freeze

  • Sometimes personal development work is hysterical because the human brain is so irrational

  • You can rationalize anything.. Rational Lies.

  • You believe it, and so you spend your entire life proving it true, to yourself. But it’s not objectively true.

  • So many people cling desperately to their beliefs, regardless of how absurd they are.

  • What is attention bias/confirmation bias?

  • The human brain is always optimizing to:

    • Avoid pain

    • Seek pleasure

    • Conserve energy

  • Managing your mind is the currency of the next generation because our world today requires it to be successful.

  • Now, you can distract yourself infinitely.

  • Ask yourself:

    • What am I doing?

    • What am I feeling?

    • What’s the thought creating that feeling?

  • Become more fluent in your own emotions and experience them. Don’t resist your emotions, just allow them to happen, feel them, and observe them. They last about 90 seconds.

  • Growth and development require uncomfortable emotions.

  • Homework: Make a list of all the things you do to avoid feeling your feelings.

  • Homework: Make a list of the things you do that seem completely bonkers and seem completely contradictory to your goals and desires.

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This week's episode of The Science of Success is presented by Dr. Aziz Gazipura's Confidence University!

You can learn to confidently connect with others, be bold, feel proud of who you are, and create the life you truly deserve!

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Sasha’s Website

  • Sasha’s Instagram and Facebook

Media

  • Career Contessa - “Goal-Setting for Perfectionists (+ Free Goal-Setting Worksheets)” by Dr. Sasha Heinz

  • Goop - “The Disease to Please” by Dr. Sasha Heinz

  • Mindful Magazine - Four Ways to Hack Your Screen Addiction

  • Thrive Global - Why Your New Year’s Resolution Fizzled Out Like Flat Champagne

  • Bustle - 7 Fascinating Ways To Hack Your Brain To Be Less Negative, According To Science

  • [Podcast] Your Kickass Life with Andrea Owen - The Science of Happiness

  • [Podcast] Brand Yourself with Blair Badenhop - Neutralizing Fear to Chase the Dream

  • [Podcast] EmpowerHER - Brain Hacks and the Power of Positive Psychology

  • [Podcast] The Beyond the Food Show with Stephanie Dodier - Recovering from People Pleasing

  • [Podcast] Unmistakable Creative with Srinivas Rao - Taking Human Performance from Good to Great

  • [Podcast] Live Happy Podcast by Live Happy Magazine - Get Unstuck with Dr. Sasha Heinz

  • [Podcast] The Life Coach School Podcast with Brooke Castillo - Lessons Learned from Positive Psychology

  • [Podcast] Unstoppable Success Radio with Kelly Roach - The Power of Positivity with Dr. Sasha Heinz

  • [Podcast] Sarah R. Bagley Podcast - Sasha Heinz on Positive Psychology, Happiness, and Worth

  • [Podcast] Women on the Rise with Lara Dalch - Change Your Thoughts, Change Your Life

  • [Podcast] REAL TALK with Rachel Luna - Why Self Help Books Don’t Help

  • [Podcast] Rich Coach Club with Susan Hyatt - What Does Being “Rich” Mean to You? With Dr. Sasha Heinz

  • [Podcast] The Same 24 Hours with Meredith Atwood - Perfectionism, People-Pleasing, and Positive Psychology

  • [Podcast] The Love Your Life Show with Susie Pettit - Positive Psychology with Dr. Sasha Heinz

Videos

  • NSL Experience: Never Stop Learning - NSL Bites: Sasha Heinz, PhD, Unpacks the Psychology of Happiness

  • NSL Bites: Sasha Heinz, PhD, Talks About the Power of a Growth Mindset

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than four million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

Do you know what you should be doing and yet you don't do it? In this episode, we dig into the science behind why this happens and how exactly you can overcome this massive obstacle. No one is ever actually stuck, but the reason you feel stuck is because what you want your goals, desires, changes you want to make in your life, etc., are bumping up against an emotional roadblock or subconscious belief. It's like having one foot on the gas while the other is slamming down the brakes. In this interview with Dr. Sasha Heinz, we share what you can do to finally overcome that fear and anxiety and transform your life

I’m going to tell you why you’ve been missing out on some incredibly cool stuff if you haven’t signed up for our e-mail list yet. All you have to do to sign up is to go to successpodcast.com and sign up right on the home page.

On top of tons subscriber-only content, exclusive access and live Q&As with previous guests, monthly giveaways and much more, I also created an epic free video course just for you. It's called How to Create Time for What Matters Most Even When You're Really Busy. E-mail subscribers have been raving about this guide.

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Sign up for my e-mail list today by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the home page, or if you're on the go, if you're on your phone right now, it's even easier. Just text the word smarter, that's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222. I can't wait to show you all the exciting things you'll get when you sign up and join the e-mail list.

Do you feel you don't have enough time and you're constantly in a state of reacting to external stimulus? How do you conduct a powerful monthly review that will unlock opportunities for growth, focus and improvement?

In our previous episode, we went deep into stacking powerful mental models, harnessing best practices and optimizing your life with our previous guest, Sebastian Marshall. If you want to free up your time and focus on what really matters, check out that interview.

Now for our conversation with Sasha.

[0:03:19.3] MB: Today, we have another exciting guest on the show, Dr. Sasha Heinz. Sasha is a developmental psychologist and life coach and an expert in positive psychology, lasting behavioral change and the science of getting unstuck. She received her BA from Harvard, her PhD in developmental psychology from Columbia and her master's in applied positive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania, where she also served as a faculty member. Sasha, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:03:44.3] SH: Hi. So happy to be here.

[0:03:46.2] MB: Well, we're super excited to have you on the show today. There's so many different topics that you dig into and talk about that I think will be really relevant for audience. To start out, there's one phrase that I pulled from your website that I thought was great and it was really interesting, which was education is good, application is better, transformation is best. I think that's so true, because so many people and I mean, I think, I know I'm even guilty of this a lot of the times and many podcast listeners probably feel the same way. It's so easy to get stuck in the trap of feeling you're doing something because you're educating yourself and you're learning. Yet, if you don't ever apply anything, does it really even matter? Does it really make a meaningful difference in your life?

[0:04:26.5] SH: right. Oh, yeah. I mean, I say that as a professional student, right? I was a professional student in my life for many, many years. When you do a terminal degree, you're in school for a very long time. I think my interest, obviously my love is positive psychology. To study happiness is it's pretty good work if you can get it. It's really fun to study. When I was teaching at Penn and after I graduated from Penn, it was then got my degree in developmental psych, in what we call in psychology, we call this business –

Well, the positive psychologist call this business as usual psychology. Meaning, that the focus is not on health and well-being, the focus is on mitigating pathology disease disorder, or a dysfunction. It's more in alignment with the Western medical model. When I went to Columbia to study for my doctorate, all of a sudden I felt myself slipping back into some – just not exercising, not sleeping well, all the behaviors that we know optimize our health and well-being. I was in this what we call the neurotic paradox. I know what to do, yet I'm not doing it. Which was so frustrating. I was in this place of thinking, I know more than almost anyone on the planet what makes people happy, what makes people thrive, I study this. Yet, I can't seem to apply it.

Not only did I find that I was struggling with this, but so were my students. They had a theoretical understanding of health and well-being and what we call optimal human functioning and yet, they were struggling with just life and the everyday mundane reality of life. Then I became really interested. My interest shifted more to behavioral change. Wait, what are the roadblocks between – I know what I'm supposed to do and yet, I'm not getting them done.

I think you can use podcasts and reading books, self-help books all that in a way, it's almost an emotional novocaine. It makes you feel better, but you're not doing anything. Yeah, it's an issue, right? How do you actually apply – you're not going to transform your life unless you're doing it, right? Unless you're applying what you know. I think that's where most people find there's a roadblock there for most people.

[0:06:59.3] MB: Yeah, that makes total sense. I love the idea of the neurotic paradox, right? That's a great quote. I don't know if that's actually from the researcher you just coined that phrase, but either way, it's a great –

[0:07:08.8] SH: No, no, no. I didn't make that up. It's a psychological term.

[0:07:11.9] MB: Oh, nice. Even better. Okay, cool.

[0:07:14.1] SH: If you think about it, it’s something that's just been talked about for thousands of years. There's nothing new under the sun. This is a human condition of I know not to yell at my kids and yet, I'm doing it anyway, right? I know that doesn't help and yet, I can't – I'm not responding to them calmly. I know that getting to bed earlier makes me feel better tomorrow and yet, it's midnight and I'm watching something on Netflix, right? Or scrolling Instagram. It's death by a thousand cuts in our life, right? It's these little things that add up to a really messy, chaotic life.

[0:07:51.6] MB: I want to dig into this question more, because it's so prevalent it's such a major challenge. I mean, if you think about it, it's almost never – you had another great phrase, optimal human functioning. I really like that as well. Is almost never a question of getting more information, or finding this new secret hack that you've never heard of before, that if you just do this one tiny little thing, it's going to change your whole life. It's almost always about just executing the basics, executing the fundamentals, getting more sleep, exercising, maybe meditating, things like that. Yet, most people know that and they don't do it. Why not?

[0:08:28.2] SH: Well, a number of reasons. I mean, I think first of all, you have to understand the biography of your belief systems, right? You have to understand, because the way that your brain works is you have a thought, right? There's events in your life, facts. I call them facts with my clients. Or just the facts like, “I'm 40.” Where you live? Are you married? Do you have kids? What happened that day? Did someone cut you off in traffic and whatever? Did you get a flat tire today? Whatever is happening. Those are just the facts. They're all neutral. All of them.

The facts of our life then trigger a belief. Your past is fact, things that happen to you, they trigger belief, right? The beliefs that you have then created your emotions so whatever your beliefs are, create your emotions, and then your emotions then generate action. What most people don't realize is that they're like, your beliefs matter. Yes, they matter a lot, because they create this whole cascade of effects, right?

What's really important is that your beliefs create an emotion. The emotion is what's motivating the action. The absolute core of it is your emotion. Your thoughts only matter because they create your emotions. If you're thinking things all day long that make you anxious and stressed and worried, right? All of your actions are going to be generated from those emotions. When you're wanting to change, right? It's your neocortex, your higher functioning brain is saying like, “Yes, I sincerely desperately want to change this.”

There's other parts of your brain that unfortunately are your emotional brain is it's much more powerful than your logical brain. It's just the way that human brains are designed and they've evolved to be. Your emotional brain is much more powerful. If your emotional brain is like, “Yeah, but that sounds really scary. I don't know about that. That's unfamiliar. No, thank you.” You are going to be in that churn cycle of like, “I really want to do it and yet I'm not,” right? Which is you feel you're constantly in Groundhog's Day. What you really need to be working on is the emotional piece of it, which is challenging for most people. Most people do not want to sit in their negative emotions. No, thanks.

[0:10:50.7] MB: Yeah. That's a great insight. Unpacking that, or rephrasing it so that I understand it clearly. The idea is that and I also really, really like that phrase, the biography of your beliefs, your belief structures about the world, about the events that have happened in your past etc., shape the way that you perceive the world. If you're stuck in a cycle of whether it's self-sabotage, or knowing what you should be doing and yet you're not doing it, the first place to start and the best place to really begin that investigation is what are my belief structures? How are my emotions impacting this and how can I start to unpack these things, so that I can create a path to move forward?

[0:11:31.1] SH: I think the main point is we live in a culture now that I think people are beginning to understand, “Oh, your thoughts matter. Your thoughts are really important. Your thoughts create your reality. Indeed, they do.” There are mediators. I really believe that the mediator, your emotion is the main mediator. That's really what matters, right? The reason you feel stuck, no one's ever actually stuck, because we're always developing and evolving and growing, but the reason you feel stuck is because you're what you want, you're yearning, or your desire, or the change you want to make is bumping up against an emotion. That emotion, the roadblock of that emotion, whether it's anxiety, or fear, or doubt, or insecurity, right? That's created by some underlying belief system that you probably picked up as a kid, that you may not even be conscious of.

The reasons that your thoughts matter is not – because your thoughts are just made up sentences in your brain. They're all made up. All of our thoughts are. They don't really matter, but the reason that we want to pay attention to what your thoughts are is because they create our emotions. Once you begin to see thoughts in this way where you’re like, “Oh, thoughts are just things I picked up.” It's like there was a grab-bag of beliefs that I could have picked up as a kid and I picked up these ones. When you begin to realize that they're optional, that's when your life begins to change.

[0:12:59.0] MB: Yeah. That's another great insight. I love this notion that nobody's ever actually stuck, but yet it really feels like you're stuck.

[0:13:07.1] SH: Yes. Really feels like you're stuck. It absolutely can feel you're stuck, but no one's – you're always in a process of change. The question is are you actively engaging in directing that change, or are you just passively a bystander, right? You feel your life is happening to you and you're not actively participating in it. To be in terms of your mental fitness and thinking about creating life you want, what you want to be doing is actively engaging in this process of change, right? That's the critical thing is figuring, is really getting to know your emotions.

The litmus test of your understanding what your beliefs are. If you want to know why you're not moving forward, pay attention to what you're feeling, right? Like, “Oh, I feel really anxious. Okay, wait. What's the thought that I've picked up that's creating that anxiety? I'm not smart enough. not competent enough, right? I don't have enough education,” or whatever the thought that you picked up over the years.

then you begin to realize like, “Oh, those thoughts are actually just totally optional. This is then that becomes the work,” right? The work is as an adult, you realize you have the autonomy to decide what you want to believe about yourself, right? That your thoughts are actually quite flexible, right? That your thoughts really matter. The reason that your thoughts matter is because they activate own emotion and the emotion is what's generating your action.

There's this little sneaky little mediator and it's called emotions. You got to get that figured out. That's what I think when people get stuck in this place of in the self-help world, where they're like, “Wait, I'm saying all these new beliefs to myself. I'm doing all these affirmations and I am trying to put on a new belief system, but they don't really believe it, so the emotion is not their, right?” Then they're not really seeing any transformation and change, so it feels it's not working, right? Because your thoughts aren't actually what create your actions, it's the emotion that creates your actions.

[0:15:07.4] MB: Yeah, that totally makes sense.

[0:15:09.1] SH: That’s how it works.

[0:15:10.3] MB: That totally makes sense. I want to dig into the process of how do we actively engage in changing our thoughts and beliefs and emotions. Before we do, I want to unpack a little bit more this relationship between emotions and beliefs. Because sometimes I think they can be used synonymously, but they're distinct, they're different. Tell me, what's the distinction between an emotion versus a belief and how do they interact with each other?

[0:15:36.0] SH: Well, I mean, I think they're directly related, right? Because your belief is what's going to generate the emotion, right? It creates this chemical cascade that creates that sensation in your body, right? That feeling of like, “Ooh, I feel sad. I feel anxious. I feel elated and joyful,” right? Those are physical feelings that are generated by your thoughts, right? With the exception of well, even physical pain, right? There is a signal that's going to your brain and your brain is telling you this is painful.

Your beliefs are generating your emotions always, but the thing is so wild right, is that we do all sorts of crazy things to avoid feeling our feelings. Most of this entire process for most people, like 90% of this is unconsciously happening.

[0:16:27.8] MB: Yeah. I feel so many people in today's world and probably throughout history, but in today's world, especially I meet and interact with so many people who aren't even aware of this iceberg under the surface, all the subconscious feelings, thoughts, beliefs, things that are interacting with the way that they think and feel and behave in the world. How do you start to peel back the layers? How do you start to engage with those emotions?

Because as you said, we'll do all kinds of crazy stuff to avoid feeling our emotions and whether that's impulsively turning to things like social media, or all kinds of hedonic pursuits. I see so many people that I feel they're trapped, or they're stuck, or they don't even realize what's happening beneath the surface. How do you start to crack through that, or blast apart the fog and help them see what's really going on?

[0:17:17.7] SH: Right. I mean, it's interesting, right? We live in a world now where we have so much more access to what I call emotional novocaine. overeating, over-drinking, over-shopping, overspending, porn, Instagram, social media, we have all these ways of just numbing out and avoiding being present. By the way, it can come in some very innocuous ways, like listening to an audiobook with the earbud in your ear while other stuff is going on, right? Just to not be present.

You have to consciously engage in this process now, because if you live 300 years ago, these options weren't available to you, right? You didn't have a pantry full of food to go squirrel away at if you were feeling a negative emotion. You didn't have liquor stores everywhere. That just didn't exist. Forget the internet, right? It's a rabbit hole for people. I think it requires a lot of consciousness to disengage with it. I used to think of things in a more linear way. It was like, okay heel the –

If you're thinking about your mental health on a spectrum and about negative 10 is you've got psychological dysfunction and personality disorders and addiction and problems right? On the negative end of the spectrum. Then you get healthier and then you get to zero and then you move on to the let's work on flourishing and cultivating mental health and well-being. That's on the positive end the spectrum and you linearly, like you're moving up this ladder, so to speak right? To your mental health. You can think about it in medical terms, right? Or with your physical health like, “Okay, I've got cancer on the negative end of the spectrum.” Then you move into okay, positive end of the spectrum is physical fitness, building muscle, getting healthier, eating well nutrition, getting super fit.

I used to think of it with your mind and your mental health, the same linear structure. I'd really don't think that's the way it works at all. I think you got to work on both ends of the spectrum at the same time. Everybody has experienced some trauma in their life. If trauma is something less than nurturing, everybody on the planet has experienced some trauma. It's a part of the human experience. Everybody has wounds that they need to heal from. The thing that is so interesting is that as you get healthier, and as you clean up your life right? you stopped over drinking, or you start eating more healthfully, or you start sleeping better, and so you feel better, this interesting thing happens.

The wounds, the trauma, the difficult things, the negative belief systems that are maybe very pervasive in your life, they become easier to access and to deconstruct and work through, because you're on a more stable foundation. I find that they happened together. As you're working on your mental health and you're getting your feeling physically feeling better and taking better care of yourself, it becomes easier to work through family of origin stuff and things that happened to you and heal those wounds. It becomes this exponential growth, right? Because you're healing thinks as you're also augmenting things at the same time.

[0:20:51.6] MB: Yeah, that's a great point. Definitely something that I've experienced personally as well that it's almost like a compounding effect, where these factors start to really stack together and multiply. You start to see some really massive acceleration in your emotional intelligence and self-awareness and all these other things, if you start to really do this work while simultaneously taking better care of yourself. Every little edge you can get, stacking them all together. As you said, it's not a linear result, but it's a geometric or an exponential result when you do that.

[0:21:26.9] SH: Yeah, because as you start to develop your life and moving towards your most valued self, the person you want to be, it becomes easier for you. You're more able to access like, “Oh, wow. I see how I develop that belief as a kid. I couldn't even go there. That was way too hard for me to even look at that.” As you start to feel more stable and as you start to feel you're positively developing in your life, the interesting thing is that you actually can go deeper, I think, in terms of healing yourself. I really realized it's not a linear progression like, “Okay, I'm going to heal my wounds and then I'm going to start working towards the life I want.” No, it's all going to happen at the same time.

[0:22:11.3] MB: I want to start to go deeper and more concrete about how to specifically implement and execute some of these things. For somebody who's listening to this interview that's thinking to themselves, “Okay, yes. I know there's a lot of things I should be doing, but I'm not doing them.” What are the starting points? What are some of the things they can begin with to implement these ideas?

[0:22:30.5] SH: Well, I mean, I think a great place to start is doing a deep inventory of what is your current belief systems around what were you taught about yourself as a child? What do you believe about your potential? Being very honest about it. Really looking at what do I believe about my health? What do I believe about my competence and my intelligence? My love ability, how lovable you are, or you're just a very broad over – I call it belief blueprint, right?

This the design of a house, you're really being honest about those things, because what you'll begin to uncover is like, “Oh, wow. I want to be successful and I want to make more money and I have this belief that I'll never make a certain amount.” You might have a ceiling on a belief, right? Then you would see it and you're like, “Oh, my God.” The first place is to start looking at where did I pick that up? Where did I learn this idea and pick that up in my life?

I think it’s really – the great place to start is understanding that there's – you have one foot on the gas and that's your neocortex like, “Yes, this is the life I want.” Then you have one foot on the brake and that's your limbic system, your emotional brain saying like, “No, that's way too scary,” right? That's that horrible feeling of I'm revving the gas. I've got my foot on the brake and I'm not going anywhere, but I'm expending a ton of energy, not a great feeling.

A great place to start is really – I think it helps having a coach, or a psychologist, so somebody's helping you uncover what are those beliefs that are making that emotional brain freak out, right? What are the foundational beliefs that make you want to dig your heels and then say, “Yeah, we're not doing that.”

[0:24:20.3] MB: It’s a perfect analogy, because this notion of your neocortex, or your conscious experience of your thinking brain basically saying, “I want to improve. I want to grow. I want to do this. I want to do that.” Yet simultaneously, your subconscious is just mashing the brakes and trying to desperately stop you from doing this, because of some belief that could be from 20 plus years ago, embedded in your subconscious that is causing you to be scared about something. It's really hard to uncover those sometimes.

[0:24:49.2] SH: For example, I had a client who was starting a business. All the things are in alignment and there's no reason why it's not going to be successful. It was on its way to really doing well. Then there was all this self-sabotage going on. It was like, “What is this about?” As we were doing the work, what we uncovered was that her father had had a business that had done really, really well and then he sold it and started a second business and the second business was a total flop.

In her mind, this was her second act that was going to be a flop. Even though she was very excited about it, she's really motivated, she wanted – so her conscious brain really wanted to go after it. Her subconscious brain was like, “Do not do this, because this is going to be a faceplant, like your dad had a faceplant.” As a child, right? She experienced this as a kid watching this happen. It feels obviously even more intense when you experience that as a kid, because you don't have – your brain isn't fully developed and you don't know how to understand it in the right context.

She had this unconscious processing that was like, “Hey, we're not doing this,” which came out on all these weird, seemingly bizarre like, “Why would I do that? Why would I sabotage myself? Why would I procrastinate on that? Why would I not get this done? Why would I blow off this opportunity, right?” It seems so maddening, because it doesn't actually make sense. Then when you get to the root of it you're like, “No, it actually makes a lot of sense,” because you think you're going to have a professional face plant like your father did, his second act as a entrepreneur and that's scary to you, right?

The first place is just identifying it. Then it's about questioning all those thoughts, right? All of those thoughts are made up. It's completely irrational that the thing that happened to her dad is going to happen to her different business, different era. Everything is different, right? Why would they be the same? Why would those two situations happen in the same way? It's very unlikely, right? That doesn't matter. Her 13-year-old brain picked that up.

[0:27:01.6] MB: Hey, I'm here real quick with confidence expert Dr. Aziz Gazipura to share a lightning round insight with you. Dr. Aziz, how can people say no more often and stop people-pleasing?

[0:27:14.9] AG: This is not only important to figure out how to do, but to start practicing immediately, because most people don't realize their anxiety, their stress, their overwhelm is often a result of not saying no. Here are some quick tips on how to start doing that. First of all, imagine right now in your life where would you benefit from saying no? Where do you feel overloaded, pressured, overwhelmed, even if intellectually you're telling yourself you should tune into your heart, tune into your body, where do you feel? “I don't want to.” Start paying attention to that. Start honoring that.

The next tip is to imagine saying no and then notice how you feel, because you're probably going to feel all kinds of good stuff, right? Guilt, fear, what are they going to think? I don't want to let this person down. What you want to do is before you go say no to them, you want to work through that. You want to address that you want to get out on paper, “Can I say this? Why can't I say this? What's stopping me from doing this?” Do a little prep work, so you can really just practice it.

Then the third and most important step, of course is going to be to go say no. Start saying no liberally. Start saying no regularly. In fact, after listening to this, find an opportunity today to say no. Because the more you do it like anything else, like any sub-skill of confidence, the more you do it, the easier will become and the freer you'll become in your life.

[0:28:31.8] MB: Do you want the confidence to say no and boldly ask for what you deserve? Sign up for Dr. Aziz's Confidence University by visiting successpodcast.com/confidence. That's successpodcast.com/confidence and start saying no today.

[0:28:52.9] MB: It's fascinating too, because I like the framework that you just presented, which was the idea of starting with an inventory of these thoughts. Then once you've collected them, going through a process to break them down, even step one seems logical, seems obvious, seems relatively straightforward, is actually really hard work. You need to take some meaningful steps to start to do that, whether it's a tool and this is my own experience and I'm curious what yours has been. For me, things like meditation help to start to build that listening device inside of your head, where you can actually hear what you're thinking and saying to yourself. Because without something like that, you never have the ability to capture those thoughts when they happen in the moment, or something else as you mentioned things like coaching therapy, etc., helped put a mirror up to that and you can start to pull out and see some of those thought and behavior patterns.

[0:29:46.5] SH: Oh, absolutely. It's very, very difficult to capture the thought that's driving your emotions and behavior in real-time. It's very hard. What I would say to my client is you're going to notice either the emotion, or more likely the behavior first, right? You're going to be way down the rabbit hole of surfing the web and be like, “Wait, what am I doing? Right? I am supposed to be working on something else.” You'll notice the behavior first. Like, “Wait, what am I doing here?” Then that's the perfect moment to say like “Okay, if my behavior is a result of my emotions and my emotions are a result of my belief, let's work backwards and figure out what I'm thinking that's creating this action,” right? That sounds very laborious and to some degree it is, but it becomes a practice.

You catch yourself procrastinating on something and then you have that moment of pause like, “Okay, wow, wow, wow. I'm procrastinating. Why?” Right? “Oh, I'm feeling anxious. Ooh, didn't realize I was feeling anxious, but I'm totally feeling anxious, which is why I'm distracting myself with inane stuff on reading nonsense on the internet. Okay, wait. What am I telling myself right now that's making me feel anxious?” Right? It actually takes 30 seconds to do this.

Just that process of it's a mindfulness practice really, but it's just a process of stopping and saying, “Wait a minute.” Reverse engineering it back to the thought like, “What am I thinking that's generating this whole cascade of effects?” Then you might realize like, “Oh, my thought is –” let's say you're writing a piece, or something and your thought is like, “My writing is hackneyed. Someone said this before. This isn’t original. It's not as good as so-and-so.” You'll begin to see, “Oh, those are the thoughts,” right?

Then if you peel it back, you might find that, “Oh, there is this underlying thought that I'm not smart enough. Whoa, where did that come from,” right? You may even be aware of it, and so once you become aware of it you're like, “Oh, that's my story that I'm not smart enough.” Then you can get better at just allowing that belief to be there and still taking the action, right? That's the next step of the practice is recognizing like, “Oh, there is my story that I learned when I was 10 that I'm not smart enough and I'm just going to allow it to be there, because I made it up. It felt true.”

The funny thing is it's always really – I mean, this work is hysterical, because our brains are so irrational. I mean, the thing that's so funny is that my clients will argue to the hilt that they're right? No, I'm really not smart enough. Let me tell you why. The only thing that's happened here is that you picked up this thought as a child and then you've just confirmed it over the years, because that's how your brain works, right? We call it attention bias, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, all the same thing. It's just the way your brain works. What you believe, you are biased to prove right.

When someone's like, “Yeah, but I have so much evidence that I'm not smart enough.” I'm like, “Right, because you believe that and you just spent your entire life proving that true to yourself, but it's not actually true.” On what objective scale are we actually measuring that? There isn't even any academic consensus on how do we actually measure intelligence. There's your G, your G score, your general IQ, but there's a lot of other voices in the field saying like “Wait a minute, there's other kinds of intelligence that aren't reflected in an IQ test,” right? I think everyone is who lives life would be like, “Right, that's true. There are many forms of being bright, or being intelligent, or being competent.”

Once you start to question these beliefs, they don't ring true. There's not much veracity there. You have to be you have to be willing to engage in the process of questioning them. I mean, so many of my clients hold on to their beliefs. I would tell them, I'm like, “You're like Gollum in Lord of the Rings, right? You're holding on my precious. You don't want to let them go,” right? You're like, “No, I'm really not smart enough,” and it's destroying you and yet, you don't want to let it go. It's crazy.

[0:33:57.1] MB: So many good insights. The notion that asking yourself, if you're doing something you don't want to be doing and you're in the middle of that behavior, just pausing for a moment and reflecting and asking, “Why am I doing this?”

[0:34:11.4] SH: The question to ask this not just why am I doing this, because I think that's people will answer, “I have no idea.” That's what most people would answer, “I don't know. I don't know why I'm doing this.” The question that I would suggest asking yourself is what am I feeling right now that's making me do? This this behavior is because of an emotion. I'm doing this behavior because of an emotion I'm feeling. What's the emotion I'm feeling? If it's procrastination, I would say yeah, fairly likely it's some variety of anxiety. Fear, anxiety, worry, right? Those are the negative emotions, it's called the thought action repertoire. Essentially with a negative emotion, the action that comes out of a negative emotion is very narrow. You feel fear, you're going to do a few very specific actions, right? You're going to fight, flight, or freeze. That's it. There's really not much else you're going to do.

You're not going to self-reflect if you're feeling fear. That's not going to happen. Normally, you can start to – you can catch on to yourself pretty quickly like, “Oh, yeah. This is what I do when I'm feeling anxious, or oh, right. This is what I do when I'm feeling scared.” You can begin to pay attention to these patterns and you can begin to – you're onto yourself. That's always the question I would ask is wait, when you're doing something that you don't want to be doing, it's like, “What am I feeling that this action is trying to mitigate that feeling?” Right? Then the question is what am I feeling? Is it fear, anxiety, stress, boredom, loneliness? Then you get better at recognizing your specific patterns.

[0:35:49.8] MB: Yeah, that's a great framework and super helpful. You made another really interesting point a minute ago, which is this notion around rationalization, right? How the human brain is incredibly irrational and yet, we can rationalize really almost anything to ourselves, regardless of how absurd it is and then start stacking up evidence, so that we believe it whether it's a belief about ourselves, a belief about other people, belief about the world, etc. One of my favorite little play on words is just to turn the word rationalize into the word rational lies.

[0:36:21.4] SH: Ooh, I love that.

[0:36:22.9] MB: That always helps me start to – every time I'm rationalizing something and I'm sure there's millions of times when I don't even realize this, but whenever I catch myself rationalizing something, I always try to break that down and say, “Hold on a second. How am I BS’ing myself here?”

[0:36:34.6] SH: Oh, absolutely. I mean, this is just the way your brain is – it's just the way that your brain is wired, right? This is what we call like as I said, attention bias or confirmation bias. They've done a lot of studies on this that show they look at a group of smokers and non-smokers and they have everyone read a study on smoking. On the follow-up, they were asked to recall what they had read and the smokers remembered the flaws of the study and the non-smokers remembered the findings, because the findings were smoking, shocker, so a case bad for you.

In any research study, they're always going to describe the flaws, right? There's not a single research study that doesn't have some problem with it, right? Not perfect. The smokers, they were like a heat-seeking missile to trying to find evidence that what they're doing isn't that bad for them, right? A nonsmoker isn't invested in that. A nonsmoker is invested in yeah, smoking is not good for you. I'm right.

When they do studies like this, it's really fascinating to see depending on what your belief going into it is, determines what you remember about what you just read. I mean, think about this in terms of our political system, right? It’s like, yeah, you see how it bifurcates and how we have such a partisan world right now. Well, right. That's your brain is wired to do that. It's difficult for your brain to do the other thing, which is approach something more neutrally and look at something objectively. That's difficult for us.

[0:38:08.7] MB: You brought up a really interesting point in the pre-show that we were talking about that this directly relates to, which is this notion that there's many different ways and you just gave a great example of it, that our brains basically short-circuit, or go haywire in modern society. Tell me a little bit more about that.

[0:38:28.2] SH: Well, I mean, we want to always conserve energy, right? That's what the human brain wants to do. We want to conserve energy. We want to avoid pain and we want to seek pleasure. It's the emotional triad. We live in a world where that's really easy to do. Corporations put billions of dollars into research and development to take advantage of the motivational triad. How do we make things as easy as possible, as pleasurable as possible, right? It becomes very difficult for our brain to not gravitate towards those things, right?

Okay, I'm going to buy something at a convenience store that has lots of fat, has lots of sugar, calorie dense. Your brain is all over that, right? Because it's like, “Oh, I don't have to work hard to fuel my body.” Yes, that was very adaptive a thousand years ago, but not now. Not when you have [inaudible 0:39:27.5] options in front of you. It's actually very maladaptive nowadays, because of the way that we live.

If you're in a hunter-gatherer society and you're – I mean, which is the way that human beings have been for most of history, the way we live is very new, very modern. If you're even in a agricultural society, same thing, which is finding food and putting something on the table takes an enormous amount of energy. It's hard. A calorie dense food that's going to give you a lot of fat a lot of nutrition, a lot of calories easily, yeah, you're adapted to want to have that. We live in a world where all of this is very accessible to us, and so we're required to be conscious in a way that I don't think that any other generation has had to do.

For the first generation, maybe the second generation, that's had to motivate itself to move. That's crazy. We're in a brave new world of having to managing your mind in my opinion is going to be the currency of the next generation, because we live in a world that requires it.

[0:40:34.9] MB: Even something as simple as social media, right? Or the news, etc., those are such dangerous things in today's world, because they're essentially engineered to hijack your brain.

[0:40:49.3] SH: Oh, yeah. The people that design it essentially say that, right? We created this to make you want to stay on it, right? To have eyeballs on this as long as we possibly can. That's how we designed it, right? We know enough about the way your brain works that we know how to get the dopamine hits, right? Your brain is like, “Yes. More and more and more.” It requires consciousness to live today in a way that this is a really new challenge. It's a really new challenge for human beings. I mean, I think it's an interesting challenge to solve, but it requires a lot of consciousness. Because you can distract yourself now, you can distract yourself all day.

[0:41:30.1] MB: How do we in a world of infinite distraction where our brains are constantly being hijacked, what are some of the beginning steps to start to cultivate more awareness, more mindfulness, more peace, more understanding of ourselves?

[0:41:48.0] SH: I think that using that mindfulness tool of figuring out like, “Wait, what am I doing asking myself, what's the emotion I'm feeling?” Then one more step back would be, “Okay, what's the thought that's creating this emotion?” Just that little pause just to wake you up. You're scrolling Instagram and then the question is like, “Wait a minute. What am I doing? What's the emotion I'm feeling? Is it boredom? Is it anxiety, right?” It's just you're in that trance of scrolling. Pausing and just what's the emotion I'm feeling? What's the thought that's creating that emotion? Just waking yourself up I think is incredibly helpful.

Another thing I think is an important thing to do too is becoming more fluent in your emotions. Part of that means just being willing to experience your emotions. There's emerging research that shows that emotions are really only experienced if you don't resist them and you just allow them to roll over you. It’s like I was surfing a wave. You're just going to allow your emotion to happen and just observe it and feel it. They last about 90 seconds. Anything that you want to achieve, anything that you want to do, growth and development are going to require uncomfortable emotions. That's the deal. There's no way around it.

Becoming more fluent in your emotions and being more willing to sit in those emotions and experience like, “Ooh, I'm feeling anxiety. I'm just going to let myself feel anxiety and pay attention to it. Where am I feeling it in my body?” Allow it to roll over you. It's going to last on average about 90 seconds, which is unbelievable how short that is.

I think about anxiety all the time, because I think I'm wired more to be on the anxious end of things. I think goodness gracious. Thinking about my 50s vocabulary, but think about all the things that you do to avoid feeling anxious all day. Nuts. All day long, right? People hate feeling anxious, because it doesn't feel good. That fluttery, your palms are sweaty, or whatever. Just does not feel good. You feel a little bit out of your body. We do all these things to avoid feeling anxious. If you just allow yourself to have a moment of anxiety, it really is just that. It's just a moment. It's two minutes. Less than two minutes.

I think that that's when you begin to realize, “Oh, if I can just allow myself to feel this feeling and don't engage in this emotional novocaine behavior to avoid these feelings, oh, then I'm going to be moving towards the life I really want.” That's the cost of admission.

[0:44:27.3] MB: Yeah, that's a great quote as well. growth and development requires uncomfortable emotions, right? You have to push into those.

[0:44:33.8] SH: Have to.

[0:44:35.0] MB: If you're not, if you're hiding from them, you're going to be trapped in a cycle of self-sabotage and repeating the same mistakes and failures over and over again.

[0:44:42.4] SH: Yeah. Don't kid yourself. That's also incredibly painful too. It's just a more familiar discomfort. You're either going to be passively feeling discomfort, or your familiar discomfort, or you're going to be on purposely feeling discomfort and moving towards your most valued self and the goals that you want to achieve, right? I mean, when I’m working with clients, I'm like, “Hey, it's a hard sell, right? I want you to have the life you really want. What I'm selling you on is feeling pretty crappy. It's not going to feel amazing in the interim, right? It's going to feel uncomfortable, scary, frightening, right? It’s like you're going to feel you're jumping off a cliff.”

[0:45:25.2] MB: Yeah, I completely agree. I think in many ways, that's why so few people truly walk down the path of self-awareness and emotional intelligence and really digging into all these challenges.

[0:45:38.5] SH: Definitely, because it’s like, okay, here's your option. I can distract myself on my phone, or I can sit with feeling anxiety for two minutes, right? I mean, logically it's like, well, duh, obviously just sit with anxiety for two minutes and then go on doing what you want to actually want to do. In the moment, your brain is like, “No way. Way rather just put my head in my phone and distract myself.” The better you get it interrupting that habit, the better.

[0:46:10.1] MB: You shared a number of different strategies, tactics, things listeners can execute and implement in their lives. If there's one of the things you talked about today that you want someone to do as a piece of homework to begin implementing some of these ideas, where can they start as soon as they finish listening to this interview, or today, or tomorrow to begin this journey?

[0:46:30.1] SH: I think that the first thing I would say is to start to pay attention and make a list of all the things that you do to avoid feeling your feelings. Let me put it another way, which is what are the things that you do that seem completely bonkers? You have very clear goals, you have clear values, you know who you want to be. Yet, you do all of these things that seem completely contradictory. It's like times negative one, right? They don't make any sense. They're moving in the opposite direction.

Just take an inventory of what are those behaviors, right? Whether it's I really want to be fit and healthy and I blow off going to the gym. Put that down, right? It's writing an inventory, like what are the things I'm doing that are sabotaging the goals that I have for myself and who I actually want to be? How I want to show up in the world. Looking at those behaviors, like what are you doing? What are you not doing? Make an honest list of those things. Then looking at that, what is the emotion, right? What's the emotion that's motivating those? Just start there. What's the emotion that's motivating those behaviors?

[0:47:47.1] MB: Great piece of advice and great starting step. I think that's really, really good. Sasha, where can listeners find you and your work online?

[0:47:56.8] SH: On my website. They can find me at drsashaheinz, so D-R-S-A-S-H-A-H-E-I-N-Z.com. Then on Instagram same handle, so @drsashaheinz, S-A-S-H-A-H-E-I-N-Z. That's on Instagram. I'm on Facebook reluctantly. I don't really have much of a presence on Facebook. I'm mostly on Instagram. You can follow my beliefs that I have that I'm trying to – I think of it like, you’re a child of the 80s, so I think the Kool-Aid commercials, like the Kool-Aid man is jumping through the paper or whatever. You burst through. I think about that with our beliefs. It's like, what are the beliefs that are on my list of these are just things that I picked up over time? I'm not good at this. I'm not good enough with that. It's just the way that I am. What are those beliefs?

Then just I think, one of the things I love to do in my life and I feel it's my reason to be, it's look at those beliefs and then which one of them do I want to bust through? Instead of a New Year's resolution. It's what belief system do I want to completely obliterate?

[0:49:09.4] MB: Great feedback. Great advice once again. Sasha, thank you so much for coming on the show, for sharing all this wisdom, all this knowledge, fascinating conversation, tons and tons of great insights into how to dig into your own beliefs and thoughts and emotions and what might be holding you back. Thank you so much for joining us today.

[0:49:28.9] SH: My gosh, thank you for letting me geek out on this. So fun.

[0:49:32.5] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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August 08, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Focus & Productivity, Decision Making
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Cracking Complexity: This is how you solve your toughest problems with David Komlos & David Benjamin

May 16, 2019 by Austin Fabel in Decision Making

In this episode we discuss how you can get smarter in a complex and complicated world. How do you deal with confusing and difficult situations? How do you work through some of your life’s most complex problems? In a world of accelerating change, how do you accelerate the quest for wisdom and creativity? We share simple, powerful, solutions you can use to handle complexity in this interview with our guests David Komlos and David Benjamin.

David Komlos and David Benjamin - they are the CEO and CTO respectively of the company Syntegrity. Mr. Komlos is an expert coach for leaders on solving their issues. He advises top leaders and enterprises on how to dramatically accelerate solutions and execution on their defining challenges. Mr. Benjamin leads Syntegrity’s lab and client delivery organization. He has been recognized internationally for his work on global strategic planning with top executives in Fortune 500 companies.

  • What is complexity? Why is it so important to be able to handle complexity in today’s world?

  • How is complex different than complicated? 

  • Experts can help solve complicated challenges, but not necessarily complex challenges 

  • Complex challenges are multi-dimensional and human.

  • What are some basic mental models for sorting complex challenges vs complicated challenges?

  • Ask yourself:

    • Has this been solved before? And how was it solved? 

    • Would this problem have been the same 5 years ago or 5 years from now?

  • Complex challenges don’t have a recipe or a discreet playbook to be solved

  • Planning a wedding is complicated, having a happy marriage is complex 

  • Building a fence is complicated, being a good neighbor is complex 

  • The Law of Requisite Variety / Ashby’s Law 

    • "Only variety can destroy variety"

    • You can only solve complex challenges by bringing an equal amount of variety to a challenge 

    • When we are facing tough complex challenges - we need a variety of experience and expertise 

  • “A Lion In Your Office"

  • Often a BIG chunk of the challenge is just SEEING the problem in its entirety 

  • An ounce of information is worth a pound of data. An ounce of knowledge is worth a pound of information. An ounce of understanding is worth a pound of knowledge. An ounce of wisdom is worth a pound of understanding. 

  • Shared understanding is essential - but we often rush to action before we get there 

  • We need FAST Wisdom and CREATIVE Judgement to solve our biggest challenges in today’s world - but wisdom takes a lifetime 

  • How do you accelerate the quest for wisdom and solve the world’s toughest and most complex challenges?

  • Complexity is the defining challenge we face in todays’ world

  • How do you engineer Fast Wisdom?

  • The framework you can use to engineer “fast wisdom” and solve tough, complex challenges 

  • N*N-1 Mental Model and how to create “collaborative collisions” 

  • The ideal number of a group of people to work in a group is 5-8 people - you can have very creative and effective collisions 

  • How you can create groups to crunch through tough, complex challenges - by using this specific formula

    • Observers

    • Critics

    • Members

  • How do you ask good questions when looking to solve tough challenges?

  • Homework: Think about a dinner party. What question will guide the conversation in the right way? Who would you invite to create variety? 

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Cracking Complexity Site

  • David Benjamin’s Twitter

  • David Komlos’s Twitter and LinkedIn

Media

  • PR Newswire: RTI International acquires Syntegrity Group

  • Eye for Pharma: “Could Systems Thinking Solve Pharma’s Problems?” by Adam Chapman

  • [Podcast] Leveraging Thought Leadership With Peter Winick – Episode 101 – David Benjamin

Books

  • Cracking Complexity: The Breakthrough Formula for Solving Just About Anything Fast by David Komlos and David Benjamin

  • Cracking Complexity book site

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[00:00:11] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than 3 million downloads, listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we discuss how you can get smarter in a complex and complicated world. How do you deal with confusing at difficult situations? How do you work through some of your life’s most complex problems? In a world of accelerating change, how do you accelerate the quest for wisdom and creativity? We share simple, powerful solutions you can use to handle complexity in this interview with our guests, David Komlos and David Benjamin.

I’m going to tell you why you’ve been missing out on some incredibly cool stuff if you haven’t signed up for our email list yet. All you have to do to sign up is to go to successpodcast.com and sign up right on the home page.

On top of tons subscriber-only content, exclusive access and live Q&As with previous guests, monthly giveaways and much more, I also created an epic free video course just for you. It's called How to Create Time for What Matters Most Even When You're Really Busy. E-mail subscribers have been raving about this guide.

You can get all of that and much more by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the home page, or by texting the word “smarter” to the number 44222 on your phone. If you like what I do on Science of Success, my e-mail list is the number one way to engage with me and go deeper on what I discuss on the show, including free guides, actionable takeaways, exclusive content and much, much more.

Sign up for my e-mail list today by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the home page, or if you're on the go, if you're on your phone right now, it's even easier. Just text the word “smarter”, that's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number44-222.I can't wait to show you all the exciting things you'll get when you sign up and join thee-mail list.

In our previous episode, we discussed how you create your own reality. We explored the idea that your life experiences are not random or arbitrary, but rather a direct result of your subconscious beliefs. When the conscious and the subconscious conflict, the subconscious wins and you’ll never get over your past until you realize how you’re using it to justify yourself.

We dug into the powerful revelation that life only ever changes in the paradigm of action, that you must do something differently than what you’ve done before in order to change. In our pervious episode, we talked about all of that and much more with our guest, Gary John Bishop. If you feel stuck and you finally want to figure out why and what to do about it, listen to our previous episode.

Now, for our interview with David and David.

[00:03:24] MB: Today, we have another exciting doubleheader, David Komlos and David Benjamin. They are the CEO and CTO respectively of the company, Syntegrity. Mr. Komlos is an expert coach for leaders on solving their challenges. He advices top leaders and enterprises on how to dramatically accelerate solutions and execution on their defining problems.

Mr. Benjamin leads Syntegrity’s lab and client delivery organization. He’s been recognized internationally for his work on global strategic planning with top executives in fortune 500 companies. David and David, welcome to the Science of Success.

[00:03:57] DB: Thank you, Matt. Thanks for having us.

[00:03:59] MB: Well, I’m very excited to have you both on the show today and the topic that you guys address in your book, Cracking Complexity, is so interesting and something that when I heard about, I really wanted to get you on the show, because the world today seems like it’s more and more complex, and complexity is increasing. There’s all kinds of very dynamic, emergent situations and anybody who can create frameworks for dealing with challenging, complex, difficult, and I would say complicated, but I want to hear in a second about the difference between those things, situations, is something really interesting to me. So let’s start out with what do you consider complexity and why is it so prevalent in today’s world?

[00:04:39] DK: Great question, Matt. Complexity, typically, when you’re faced with a complex challenge, you’re faced with a challenge that needs to be solved fresh and where you need to align many people. What we refer to as a critical mass of people for execution. These are new challenges each time and there is no recipe, there is no playbook until you solve the challenge and align the people around the solution.

Contrast that with complicated challenges. Complicated challenges are challenges that are very tricky for the person seeing them for the first time, but they’ve been solved many times before. For example, if your car breaks down, that’s a complicated challenge. If you’re putting in a new accounting system, that’s also a complicated challenge. If you’ve never fixed a car before or ever put an accounting system in, the best approach is to take an expert-centric approach. Take the car to the mechanic. Bring in a consultant firm that puts in accounting systems 24/7/365. That’s the right approach.

When you’re dealing with complex challenges like what should your big data strategy be, or how do you take this product global, or how do you take cost out of the organization sustainably, or what should your innovation agenda be, or how do you grow faster, or how do you realize the full benefits of a merger? Those are challenges that are very multidimensional. They’re human challenges.

In order to solve them, you really have to bring a diversity of talent to bear to co-create something new, some novel thinking around what really matters, what’s really going to work, and you need to get those people bought in.

[00:06:19] DB: Yeah, and I would say that these days, leaders are facing not only increasingly intense complexities, whether leaders in the business context or social context. People, every day, are just facing heightening complexity, more moving parts, less obvious interactions and interdependencies, although they’re there. So what we talk about in terms of cracking complexity really applies today probably more than ever to anyone who’s trying to make a living, trying to be a leader and so on.

[00:06:50] MB: That’s a great point, and often, and I probably even prior to reading the book and talking to you two, would have thought that complexity and complication are essentially synonyms, but I think it’s a really important distinction that you bring up. This idea that complicated things are something that an expert – And it might be a lot of steps and a lot of detail, but it’s something that you could bring in an expert to solve. Whereas complex challenges are often a little bit more nebulous, a little bit more deep, a little bit more open-ended. Is that a correct understanding of it?

[00:07:24] DB: Yeah, that’s right. As we talk about the person confronting any kind of complexity, we tell them that where they need to start, where a leader really needs to take on a different mindset is where as we might have thought coming out of school or beginning our career that leader knows best, leader is the most experienced person, leader knows the playbook, etc.

The first step in getting your hands around the complexity is recognizing that you don’t know what you don’t know. This is not something you can control, whether you or a small group of people that you trust. It really is bigger than you when you’re dealing with something complex and sort of letting go of the control you’re used to exercising as a leader, whether a senior leader or an up and coming leader, that’s the first step.

[00:08:09] MB: So what are some basic heuristics or mental models for discerning whether we’re dealing with a complex challenge or a complicated challenge?

[00:08:17] DB: So we tell leaders that they should think about whether, first of all, has this been solved before? Has this repeatedly been solved? If you were to hire somebody to solve this for you, would they fix price it or would they time-and-materials it? That’s a good indicator that there’s some uncertainty on the side of expert. If there’s uncertainty on the side of the expert, it’s looking more and more like it’s likely complex.

We also tell people to think about whether this problem would have looked the same five years ago and whether the various technological and human dimensions of the challenge would have been the same 5, 10 years ago or are they going to be the same 5 years from now? Because again, likely, if they’re changing and if the dynamics are changing, if the moving parts are changing, you’re looking at something that’s complex.

[00:09:05] MB: That’s a great frame to distinguish it and the car example is a simple and understandable way to contextualize that, which is this idea of fixing your car is roughly the same, whether it was 10 years ago or 10 years in the future. Obviously, there’s some technological change there. But by and large, that’s a relatively static, though complicated, system. I was going to say complex, but it’s a static, though complicated, system. So you can develop expertise around it, whereas these complex challenges – Help me understand a little bit more how you would define or contextualize those and think about whether they’re dynamic, whether they’re merging, etc.

[00:09:42] DK: So, let’s go back to the car and the accounting system being put in, those examples. If you go to your mechanic and tell him or her that your car is broken, they’re going to ask you a few questions. What you’ve observed? Any sounds emanating from the car and so forth? They’re going to very quickly be able to isolate the problem. When they tell you that the car is going to be ready on Thursday at 4:00, you’re not wondering if that’s accurate or not. You have full trust that it’ll be ready. This is an expert. He or she has done this many times before.

Similarly, with an accounting system, the consulting firm you hired to put in the accounting system, you’re hiring them because they have the gray hair of having done that many times before. They’ll ask your organization questions to discern the differences from the other situations they’ve been in. They know what success looks like and they know what they’re going to install. They just have to understand the similarities and differences from their other situations to go and do the job for you like they’ve done for others.

But there’s a difference between putting in an accounting system and taking 10% out of your cost structure sustainably without undermining the customer experience and employee morale. Putting in an accounting system is a linear task, not easy and not inexpensive. But as I said, the people who do it and day out know what success looks like. There’s a real step-by-step playbook.

If you want to take 10% out of your organization’s cost structure sustainably without undermining the customer experience of employee morale, there’re many more considerations that you have to take into account. Where should you cut? What are the implications of the cut? Should you reallocate funds or should you just take wholesale 10% out across the board? What is this going to do to the customer experience? Which customers could be impacted the most? What will your sales force think about it? What will the people in your delivery organization feel about this? How are you going to rejuvenate morale for the people who are left once you’ve taken out cost, and so on and so forth? These are human challenges, and if there was a playbook, Matt, if there were recipes for how to do this, there wouldn’t be a multibillion dollar management consulting industry that’s striving. Leaders would be rising through the ranks, because they would have just tackled these challenges successfully the first time every time. We wouldn’t even be talking about the difference between complicated and complex.

[00:12:04] DB: Just to give you another couple of examples that really resonate with people. We like to say that planning a wedding is complicated. Having a happy marriage is complex. Building a fence is complicated. Being a good neighbor is complex.

Again, it’s that line between science and art. Complexity is much more of a creative endeavor. Complexity, you’re much more working from a clean slate looking for something new, versus the complicated where you’re following the blueprint, executing the checklist, repeating a solution that’s known.

[00:12:38] MB: That’s a great way to contextualize and distinguish it. So I want to zoom out and talk about a concept that you bring up in the book that will tie back into this, but it’s one of actually my favorite heuristics or mental model. So I’ve always found it really interesting, and long before I ever read the book or head or you buys, this was something that I found really interesting, which is the law of requisite variety. Tell me what is that and how does that factor into solving and dealing with complex challenges.

[00:13:04] DK: The law of requisite variety is among the top three eye openers I’ve had in my career. The law of requisite variety is also known as Ashby’s Law, named after Ross Ashby. It say only variety can destroy variety. Only variety can destroy variety, which means when you’re dealing with a complex challenge, the high-variety challenge, like how do we grow faster, or how do we merge better, or how do we deliver a world beating customer experience, or any of these multidimensional challenges that are complex high-variety challenges.

You can really only hope it to solve them at pace and at scale by bringing an equal amount of variety to bear on the challenge by bringing an equal amount of variety that matches the variety, the many facets and multiple dimensions of the challenger trying to contend with. The way you do that is by tapping into a carefully chosen diversity of talent from inside your organization and from outside your organization to collectively combine their experience, their knowledge, their talent and, importantly, their influence, to not only crack the challenge and come up with whether it’s a strategy a strategy, or an action plan an action plan, or a solution a solution. Not only do that, but also represent a large group of people from across the system, all the key influencers and stakeholders who are now aligned and mobilized for execution.

[00:14:42] DB: I think a really simple illustration, I’ll just add to what David said, which I like to use, because I do engage in trivia games, is if you’ve ever been to a trivia night or a bar with various teams competing in trivia, you’ll see time and time again that the team that wins is usually the group of strangers who are brought together, because they didn’t have anywhere else to sit and they were put together. That’s because when you’re sitting with your family members or close friends who you’ve known for a long time, there’s not requisite variety at the table. You know too much of the same things. You’ve had too much of the same experiences.

When you put a group of strangers together, even by accident, you’ll end up with much more variety and you’ll be able to match the variety of the questions, whether they’re history, science, entertainment, sports, etc., that are thrown at you. Again, that’s a very simple example, but I think illustrates the power of variety.

[00:15:36] DK: Absolutely. You know, Matt, when you think about this in the context of a leader, whether you’re an established leader or you’re rising through the ranks an up and comer. When you think about requisite variety, having acknowledged that you’re dealing with a complex multidimensional challenge, the thinking through requisite variety and who collectively represent all the individuals that I need to bring together to solve something, to bring forth their combined best thinking talent, experience, expertise and so forth, and who are all the right people that I need to get bought in. That is a very big mindset shift from the way many leaders power up in the face of complex challenges.

The kneejerk reaction is to either strike a small taskforce, or to bring in consultants to do the solving for you. That is very, very time consuming and it doesn’t get at all the facets of the challenge that need to be addressed. It goes well beyond – Requisite variety goes well beyond the need to be cross-functional.

When we talk about requisite variety in the context of an organization, whether it’s about a growth strategy or you’re a leader who’s launching a product or you’re overseeing a merger, something like that, who are the people inside the organization, the usual suspects Also, who are the non-usual suspects? Do I bring people in from the field? Do I bring some high-potentials into the conversation? Who from outside my organization do I need as part of this solving exercise? Do I need customers? Do I need a supply chain partner? Do I need a partner from McKinsey, or from Accenture? Because, potentially, the Accenture folks aren’t necessarily going to contribute the solution, but they’re going to hit the ground running on the technology implementation. Forcing leaders to think through requisite variety in full is what creates these special purpose teams that accelerate the solutioning.

[00:17:36] DB: I would add, having done this personally and directly with fortune 500 organizations and high-earn C-suites of those organizations and mixed groups in social settings, in governments, etc., there’s actually some science to this. This is not figure it out as you go. This is not go on a hunch. There’s actually a framework that you can use to think carefully about all of the – Sort of the geographical zones if you want, or the functions and roles that you need to think about with an overlay of personality types, stake, attitude and so on.

Again, where the experience that we can bring into a conversation with a leader really matters is when we’re pushing them, for example, to bring in the SYNNEX, bring in the people who are going to get your way later on if they’re not on board, and look for that person who listens for hours and hours very carefully to what everyone else is saying before saying one really profound thing. We mean all of that when we’re talking about variety.

[00:18:38] MB: Yeah, that makes a ton of sense, and I think how do you look at – And this is getting into a little bit some of the framework that you have for solving complex challenges. But how do you think about what actually determines variety and what kind of variety we need and how do we look at selecting and identifying the right qualities of someone that’s going to bring a varied perspective experience, expertise, et cetera?

[00:19:04] DB: We encourage the leaders who are doing this to, first, take a good look at their own organization, their own system, whatever that means. Whether that’s a business or some other setting that they’re involved in a sports organization. Think through the various functions and roles and divisions, the hierarchical level. Just set aside who the people are and just think what’s the right coverage? Again, be as minimalistic as possible while getting the right coverage. You don’t need every general manager from every business unit, but we do want representation from across the business units. So maybe I choose an IT person from one place, the leader from somewhere else and a frontline person from a third business unit.

Then pull back the lens and start to think about who’s on the frontline, and it’s often the frontliners who make all the difference in the world in terms of really connecting the dots for people who aren’t actually physically in contact with customers on a day-to-day basis, talking from them, hearing from them. So get the frontliners in there.

Again, [inaudible 00:20:05] maybe this is an opportunity to cover the geographies and really kind of go region by region and find some really strong frontline people. Then pull back the lens even further and start to think about the market and who best in my organization can represent the customer, and am I willing to actually bring the customer into the conversation, and what partners do I have who are there in the market with us who can really call out our strengths and our weaknesses and what they see going on as they work with us and other organizations. Sometimes going as far as thinking into parallel realities, what other industries and what other industry leaders that have nothing to do with us have been through this kind of challenge before who might really inform our thinking with the experiences that they had?

Then the last group that we really point people to think about, again, being as minimalistic, but holistic as possible, is the people who are going to have to execute, implement whatever comes out the other end. We say bring in that project manager and the communications person and the doers who are going to enact whatever is solved, because if they have full context, they’re going to do a far better job. So that’s sort of the coverage you’re looking for.

Then as I was saying earlier, then you look at the human beings and you start to look for personality types, experiences, other hats they wear and the way that they engage and their demographic variety. Always looking for that richest possible variety in a small group as possible.

[00:21:39] MB: That totally makes sense. Kind of striking the balance between a small as you can go, but still hitting that threshold for enough variety. It’s like the official frontier of variety basically.

[00:21:50] DB: That’s right, and there’s sometimes is not room for political correctness and who you invite. You might anger a few people who don’t make the list, but the importance is the variety. Not that everybody gets involved and feels good.

[00:22:06] MB: I want to come back, and before we dig too much further into the solutions and some of the framework that you guys have for solving these complex challenges, tell me about another mental model I found really interesting that I had never heard it before that you kind of paired up with the law of requisite variety, which is this idea of a lion in the office.

[00:22:26] DK: So this really gets at a universal truth, and we explain it as follows. Imagine, and take it seriously. Imagine that you walk into your office one day. Round the corner and confront a lion sitting on your desk. What would happen? I’ll tell you what would happen. In about the blink of an eye, you would slam the door and run away. But if you deconstruct that split second, Matt. If you deconstruct that blink of an eye, what really happened during that blink of an eye is you very, very, very quickly sensed the lion. You absorbed the fact that it’s real. You, in lightning speed, thought through the various options that are available to you. You decided on what you’ve thought is the best option. Then you executed it. You acted on it.

It took a split second from sensing the lion to fleeing. You didn’t take a moment to call the IT help desk. You didn’t strike a taskforce. You didn’t call in consultants to recommend options. You literally sensed the lion, and a split second later you were gone.

Now, when you’re a leader in an organization faced with a complex challenge like growing faster or taking cost out, or any of the other complex challenges that we’ve mentioned, your team, your organization, your business unit, the system you’re in, cannot, does not act as fast as you do in the context of a lion sitting on your desk. It takes many, many people to sense what’s going on regarding a given challenge. It takes them a long time to absorb the implication of what’s really going on, and then to think through and decide on the best course available to them also takes a very, very long time. Then to act in a unified way on the solution that they came up, very time consuming. The reason is, is that we’re all distributed. Most of us are basically physically siloed and distant from one another. We’re highly specialized. We speed different languages. So it takes a very long time for us to get to a shared understanding of really what’s going on and what to do about it.

This ties really closely to requisite variety that we’re talking about. Only variety can destroy variety and the need to bring together all those individuals. As David Benjamin expressed, all the right individuals, the minimum and necessary group of people who collectively can sense everything relevant to the challenge absorb everything together and all the implications. Think through them, decide on the path forward and then represent critical mass of people who can act in a unified way.

[00:25:18] DB: So, one really micro example that might be familiar to people is that sales person who deals everyday with customers and understands what they’re going through and what they need doesn’t usually get to sit in the room with the people who are making the decisions, thinking about next generation set of products to really have a conversation about what is it the customer needs. What is it I see? What is it I believe? And to have a good give and take, because we don’t usually put those people in the room together.

The power, we like to say SATDA, as a short form for sensing, absorbing, thinking, deciding and acting. The power of treating that as one effort is enormous. That’s where we’re able to talk about exponential leaps forward, because you don’t have the linear time delay of going from one function to the next.

[00:26:11] MB: This is bit of an aside, but I’m curious, are you familiar with John Boyd and the OODA Loop?

[00:26:16] DB: I’m not.

[00:26:17] DK: I’m not either.

[00:26:18] MB: Okay. No worries. I was only curious, because it’s a very similar to the kind of SATDA framework. He’s a really well-known fighter pilot. Basically, revolutionized aerial combat, and he had this thing called the OODA Loop, which is observe, orient, decide, act, and you try to iterate that as quickly as possible and shorten it and had this whole thing where he applied this to a theory of combat. But it’s really interesting only to see that across various disciplines, very similar idea, which is how can you shrink down that gap between observation, decision, action essentially and really create a very tight feedback loop so that you can solve these iterative and complex and emergent situations.

[00:26:57] DB: Yeah, and I just want to clarify. That’s great. I’m going to go look that up as soon as we’re done here. One of the nuances, the subtleties that people don’t necessarily pick up on is that when we’re talking about variety, when we’re talking about SADTA and we’re talking about treating those as one effort and getting everybody together. At least given today’s technologies, we’re talking about getting people together in one place. Not for a long amount of time, and people tend to not do that because they think it’s going to take too long and it’s going to be too much of a burden on people.

But the physical presence together, research has shown, makes all the difference in the world in terms of the obvious things, like body language and really hearing people and really engaging with people. But also in how the brain works and the way brains can work together, but only if they’re only physically present together.

[00:27:46] DK: And just with the fighter pilot that you mentioned, fascinating. One key distinction, when I think about a fighter pilot, sensing, orienting, deciding and acting, which is very similar to what we’re saying around SADTA. The fighter pilot would have a lot more available to him or her to sense and orient themselves and decide and then be able to act much like you have a lot going for you when you confront a lion in your office. You have all your senses about you. Your neurons are firing all in a closed system much like the fighter pilot.

When you’re dealing with post-merger integration or how to take a product global, how to take cost out of your business, how to grow faster, we really do need to create an engineer, a mega brain, comprised of all the different individuals who are catching glimpses of those challenges. Different realities, different areas of talent and expertise that need to be brought to bear that no individual has on his or her own.

[00:28:46] MB: Yeah. That’s actually a really important point, which especially today’s organizations, a big piece of the challenge is just trying to actually see and understand the problem in its entirety, and it’s so hard to overcome whether it’s the political dynamics, or the interpersonal, or even a lot of the psychological barriers, to just collecting information. As you put in sort of the first step to solving this, is acknowledging the problem.

[00:29:12] DB: Yes, it’s about acknowledging the problem. You raise a good point. It’s very hard to really understand what is the problem in its full glory. Russ Ackoff at Wharton, professor emeritus, may he rest in peace, used to say, “An ounce of information is worth a pound of data, and an ounce of knowledge is worth a pound of information, and an ounce of understanding is worth a pound of knowledge, and an ounce of wisdom is worth a pound of understanding.”

We have tons of data information and knowledge in our organizations individually and collectively. What we really lack though, as you said, Matt, to put words in your mouth, are a really clear shared understanding of the challenges we face and what is really going on, what really matters, what doesn’t matter as much as we thought. To get to that shared understanding with all the noise that we have with data information and knowledge takes a very long time. That shared understanding is gold. It is the platform upon which you can get to wise and creative judgment, and is the limiting factor really in coming up with whole solutions that people are bought into and able to execute. Anything less than shared understanding is partial understanding.

With a partial understanding, you have partial outcomes starting with a partial understanding of the problem, as you pointed out. The partial understanding of the problem you’re solving for part of the problem. Then you’re acting on a partial solution.

[00:30:51] DB: And if I can jump in for a moment, shared understanding, if you want something that anyone can take away immediately and apply in their daily life or in the next meeting they attend. This notion of not rushing to action before establishing that you’ve got shared understanding, it’s so powerful. It seems so obvious, but we’re always in such a rush to do that we often don’t take the time to really pay attention to what someone else is saying, to listen carefully, to reassert that we heard them accurately and that they understand now that we understand before trying to talk about solutions. Because without that, it’s not just partial solutions. But I’ve watched conversations where people have walked away with completely different assumptions and understandings of what they decided, because they didn’t take the time to do that.

[00:31:40] MB: You bring up a really great point as well and it reminds me of something a good friend of mine told me a couple of months ago when we were chatting. I asked him a question, he said, “That question requires wisdom to answer,” and I like to call that kind of capital W, Wisdom, which is I really love that quote. I forget the entire sequence of events that went there, whether it was data and information and all those other things. But I’ll have to go back through the transcript and write that down, because that was a great quote. But it’s so important, and wisdom is often one of the hardest things to come by. In many ways, to solve these complex challenges, really what we need to ultimately cultivate is wisdom.

[00:32:19] DB: Yes, Matt. Exactly. We, in the past, have talked about it as fast wisdom, because it’s kind of a paradox. We need wisdom and creative judgment to get to answers to the big challenges in life, in our personal lives, in our corporate lives, in societal challenges that we face.

But as you know, wisdom takes a lifetime. So as we talk about accelerating and unprecedented complexity that is not slowing down, that really is the new normal. People have wrapped their heads around that. This is not news to people that complexity is the defining challenge we face today and tomorrow. It’s how do you drive, how do you engineer fast wisdom. Not just wisdom, but how do you do it at a pace that’s reasonable given the survival needs of individuals, societies and companies?

[00:33:11] MB: If you’re like me, you have tons of skills and abilities that you want to master, and that’s why I’m excited about our sponsor for this week; Skillshare. Skillshare is an online learning community for creators with more than 25,000 classes in design, business and me. Skillshare is an amazing resource to discover countless ways to fuel your curiosity, creativity and career.

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Join the millions of students already learning on Skillshare today with a special offer just for Science of Success listeners. You can get two months of Skillshare completely for free. That’s right. Skillshare is offering Science of Success listeners two months of unlimited access to over 25,000 classes for free. All you have to do to sign up is go to skillshare.com/success. Again, go to skillshare.com/success to start your two months right now.

Skillshare is awesome. I highly recommend going to sign up. Check it out. There’s definitely a course or probably a number of really high-quality courses and classes on exactly what you want to master in your life today. One more time, go to skillshare.com/success and sign up now.

[00:35:06] MB: So let’s get into that. How do we create clarity in the face of this confusion? How do we figure out the actual solutions and plans to these complex challenges, and what’s the framework that you two have created to help people work through that?

[00:35:24] DB: I’ll start by basically saying that it’s the difference between recognizing the importance of direct connections between all the right people versus whoever has the best brain power wins. So the old world, the old models say, “Whoever has the best brain power, whoever is tapping into the greatest genius, to figure out the slickest, most fit answer, they’re going to win.” That’s just not true anymore, especially as David said, complexity is accelerating and becoming more and more prevalent.

Back to requisite writing, it’s not enough to get all the right people together. Let’s say you’re talking about 40 people. It’s not enough to throw them around a boardroom table and say, “Go. Figure this out.” The key is that they’re all connected directly with each other and that you are putting them through a sequence of what we call collisions, where they are interacting in a meaningful way with every other individual there for a brief amount of time in most cases, where they have a chance to understand and learn something from each other and then share a piece of information or come away with an insight that only that collision could have brought them.

To do that many, many, many times very quickly in a system that is capturing everything that happens at every collision point and distributing that out to all the other collision points. That is sort of the optimal framework for cracking complexity.

Now, you can’t always build a network that is that highly connected and that efficient. When you can’t, it’s a matter of doing better. It’s a matter of asking yourself, “Am I really getting value from that one hour of plenary time where there’s a presenter talking at this group, or is a way I can make that far more interactive? Am I really doing enough if I put people around the table for a conversation, or do I need to give them a [inaudible 00:37:20] and some speaking roles so that they’re forced to listen while others are talking and then forced to talk while others are listening?” It’s the difference between ignoring all of that and hoping for the best, versus doing all of that and engineering the serendipity that you’ll get in terms of the events as you need to solve your challenge?

[00:37:42] DK: When we do this with leaders and we’re applying the formula, they have acknowledged that they’re dealing with a complex challenge to begin with, that it’s not complicated, that it’s complex. They’ve framed the challenge in the form of a question. That really is the invitation for people to collaborate. They’ve targeted a requisite variety of people who represent those who can solve the challenge by pulling their knowledge, their talent, their experience, and their influence. They’ve brought them together. They’ve level-set them, and now we are colliding them and they are colliding with one another in a very engineered way.

Let’s say you have 8 people together, or 30 people together. To be very specific, the number of collisions that you have manage are N times minus 1 collisions, where N are the number of people involved. So for 8 people, you’ve got 8 times 7, 56 collisions that need to be managed and accounted for. If you’re in a group of 30, of 30 times 29 collisions that need to be managed and accounted for, and not just engineered so that every individual is colliding and interacting many times with every other individual in contrast to just a few keeners or a subset of people who are passionate about subject, talking while everyone else has checked out. You need to make sure that they’re all interacting with one another and that those interactions are very effective, right? They’ve very high-quality, candid, transparent, disarmed, highly engaging, issues-focused interactions.

When you do that and you iterate through those collisions with everyone colliding and interacting with everyone else many times, back and forth. It can take us few as two, three days to get after the answers to these big challenges and really get the pooling of information and talent and knowledge and experience and influence in a way that solves the challenge and has everyone who co-created the solution totally psyched and bought in around what they’ve co-created.

[00:39:48] DB: So I just want to add a mathematical footnote, because for anyone who’s familiar with the N times N minus 1 formula. They might be wondering why we don’t divide by two when we talk about that. That’s just because collisions, we talk about them, are not bidirectional. Me colliding with David in a mode where I’m listening and he’s speaking is very different from me colliding with David in the mode where he’s listening and I’m speaking. So we don’t divide by two for that reason.

[00:40:18] MB: So, briefly, there’s a number of different directions and ways I want to unpack this and dig into, but this is a good example or an instance to just explore this mental model a little bit better. For listeners who may not be familiar with N times N minus 1, explain just briefly how that mental model works and what it means and how people can think about and apply that in different contexts.

[00:40:38] DB: It’s just the way to calculate. It’s the formula for calculating how many connections there are amongst N people. So when we talk about it, we think about those connections as each one needing to be activated. Each one being the channel through which a collision can happen.

In fact, as we do the calculation for how many collisions you need, it’s not just N times N minus 1. There’s a multitude of those collisions you need to create where, again, people are in different modes with each other. Very importantly, the iteration through all of those collisions multiple times so that people can move and leave their agenda behind and learn new things and adapt to what everyone else is thinking and saying and believing and the new information they gain and sort of iteratively move from discussing status quo issues, opportunities, what’s going on, the stories we tell. Moving then to ideas and then moving finally to decisions and recommendations.

[00:41:43] DK: Matt, as David said earlier, there’s ideal ways to engineer these serendipitous interactions, and some organizations actually use algorithms to allocate people to teams in a way where they’re going to collide with one another and nothing’s left to chance.

David also said, if you can’t do that, if you’re not going to do that – As a leader, if you’re bringing together 8 people or 15 people or 20 people for a day or even three hours, you want to do better. You want to rotate people through a variety of conversations in a way that approximates the N times N minus 1 collisions that are needed to make sure everyone is interacting with everyone else. You want to do your best and rotate people through a variety of conversations and make note that Mary has had a few conversations with John. John has had a few conversations with Ivan. Ivan has had a few conversations with Mary, and so on and so forth. Really keeping your eye on that really leads to explosions of brain power and emotional commitment.

[00:42:43] DB: I want to give you a shortcut as well, which is we talk about these as collision teams. If you put together a group of five to eight people, they can actually have a very productive conversation, and that’s the limit to the size of a group of people, the number of people in a conversation who can interact effectively. If you start to put 9 people, 10 people into a conversation, you’ll routinely see one or two or three of them starting to tune out and not participating equally and somebody dominating, frustration and so on.

So when you move into breakouts, when you work in groups, if the size of the conversation is in that range, five to eight, then you can have very effective collisions in there amongst all the people who are participating. So that’s how you can shortcut the number of interactions you need to have in order to do all the colliding that has to happen.

[00:43:36] DK: A nice additional technique when you are in your collision teams and you’re really focusing on having people interact with each other many times, to make those interactions highly effective, not just high-volume, but highly effective. What we’ve seen work really well is assigning some of the team members as what we call members. Assigning others as critiques and assigning yet the others as observers, and making sure that these rules are played by everybody in a fair way, that everyone plays the roles a number of times. Where, really, it’s the job for the members to advance the dialogue as far as possible in service of answering that question that you’ve convened people to answer.

The role of the critiques is to really listen, and from time to time critique, provide as much help as they possibly can through critical feedback to the members without becoming members themselves. Their job is just critique. Then observers, we find, is both a very useful and a very frustrating role. These are individuals in a team that can only listen. They have no speaking role.

When you switch these roles up between people through an iterative approach to the conversation and you’re colliding them many, many times, what you find is issues-focused dialogue, surfacing everything from every angle. People listening differently knowing they can’t just dominate speaking. They know that they have to listen for a few minutes before critiquing or that is an observer they have no speaking role, whatsoever. It changes the dynamic of the group. It’s very disarming. For leaders who are listening, it becomes very self-managing.

When you institutionalize the member critique observer role in your meetings, your people get used to it very quickly and realize that, “It’s my job to be the critique now. So I’m going to be the critique,” and it’s going to be very issues-focused instead of personality focused, or personal.

[00:45:38] DB: Yeah, and I think if I could advice to people listening. As leaders, if you want to be a better leader tomorrow, in the very next meeting you attend where you’ve got some sort of hierarchical or power advantage in the room, pull your chair to the back of the room. Designate yourself as a critique and inform everyone at the table that I’m going to listen and not say a word for the next 20 minutes. Then I will take a minute to critique what I just heard and then I’m going to pull myself back out. Then I’m going to do that a second time, but it’s on you to figure this out. I’m here to help in those two intermittent moments where I joined the conversation.

[00:46:11] DK: The important thing about that, in terms of what David just said, is as a leader, you’re not abdicating your decision rights. But what you’re doing is really granting discussion rights to the group of people, and they will notice that. They will notice how you’re conducting meetings. They will notice the effectiveness of the communication. The bar has been raised in a meaningful way. The outcomes are much better, frankly, and faster.

[00:46:38] MB: Some great, great strategies and advice and crafting these dynamic groups to help solve challenges like these. I love the observer critique member framework. I want to change gears, because there’s so many rich strategies for dealing with complexity that I want to talk about, and we’re going to run out of time.

One of the other things that I thought was universally applicable and relevant and interesting that you touched on was the importance of asking good questions and how to do that. Because the quality of your life is the quality of your questions, and that’s something that I firmly believe in. So how do you think about crafting and asking the most effective questions possible?

[00:47:16] DB: It’s funny, because it sounds like it would just be a matter of putting pen to paper and writing down a question and finishing with a question mark. In fact, leaders who do this well will spend a lot of time thinking about what is the scope of the question I’m asking.

Again, we’re starting with a complex challenge. What do we need to ask the group I’m going to ring together to solve this? I have to give the guidance on scope. I have to give them guidance on the kind of action that I’m looking for and who should be taking those actions. That comes down to what am I saying; what should we do, or what should you do, or what should they do, really thinking that through. Giving guidance on timeline, both timeline for action and timeline for result.

When it comes to result, very specifically, setting a goal in the goldilocks zone between easy to achieve and not achievable at all. Something that’s aspirational. Something that people see they could achieve, but only if things change. Only if we get out of the status quo and do something different.

So with that goal, with the clarity on the timeline, with the right action frame, with the right scoping, you’ve got a good question. But the other caution is it’s very easy as you’re doing those things to bake in your own bias. So if you’re getting all the right people together to answer the question, the last check you do on the questions, whether you’ve inadvertently built in some of your own assumption and biases that are just going to get in the way.

So kind of have a constraint, like we need to do this profitably. But you got to make sure that when you’re saying, “But we need to do this profitably,” you’re not cutting out a whole bunch of things that could have been considered as part of the solution.

[00:49:04] DK: And Matt, we find that a lot of leaders really benefit early on in their powering up to solve something big by bringing in a couple of confidants, a couple of their colleagues, people who they want to get involved early on and whose buy-in they want in the overall solution to the challenge. They get that early on by having them inform and shape the question itself.

So getting a group of people, 2, 3, 4 people together in a room and say, “Given that we’re dealing with this big data strategy challenge that we’ve lost traction with or we’re trying to double our growth rate or we’re trying to build a culture of innovation or whatever it is.” How would we frame this? What’s the question we’re really trying to answer?

When you work through that in a small group, not only do you, the leader, emerge with what the right question is. You’ve got the beginnings of buy-in and alignment from your key stakeholders and key influencers who shaped it with you.

[00:50:05] DB: Yeah, and you just have to be careful. [inaudible 00:50:06] David as much as anything else, when you’re bringing together a group of people to do this, you have to watch out for the fear and the trepidation that as you add more and more people, you begin to bake in to the question. We don’t want to forget all the great effort people have already put in. Is that bar too high? Is that going to make people uncomfortable? The more people you have involved.

So, again, it’s that goldilocks zone of getting the right level of involvement and making sure people have their fingers on the question as well, but making sure you’re not watering it down and making it something that’s going to drive the same old things.

[00:50:41] MB: So we’ve obviously gone through a lot of practical solutions and implementations for dealing with complexity. For listeners who are listening to this and maybe dealing with a complex challenge in their lives, what would be one homework, or action step, or action item that you would give them to start implementing some of these ideas or to take a first step or to begin taking a bite out of that complex challenge that they’re facing?

[00:51:07] DB: So I would say pay attention to the challenge. Think about it. Write a question. Leave that question sitting on your coffee table. Keep looking back it and seeing if it’s the right question and having a pen handy to keep modifying it.

But then you know you’ve got the question, think about the variety of people, and it might be that it’s a question about your next career choice and that your variety might be eight people. But really challenge yourself to think about the scarcity of seven other seats, because you’re going to be one of the eight people, and who you would put into those seats without wasting one opportunity to have a perspective that could be there.

This is very real. People do this. We’ve applied the formula with businesses and across organizations. We’ve also applied the formula or helped individuals apply the formula for themselves as they’re making career decisions. So if you think in terms of a dinner party and if you think about the eight seats at the table and you think about the question that will guide the conversation at the dinner table, then if you think very carefully about who you’d invite and get really creative about how to get as much variety as possible.

People from in your life, people who don’t know you, people who think a particular way, people who challenge for the sake of challenging, people who are able to distill a whole bunch of thoughts down to a coherent point from time to time. Think about that variety. If you actually wanted to proceed into that conversation, you’d have a great conversation.

[00:52:40] MB: Love the example of a dinner party, and that really helps contextualize it in a way that’s applicable and easy and a great simple framework to implement.

So David and David, what are the best ways for listeners to find you, to find your work, to find the book, etc., online?

[00:52:56] DK: A really good way to find the book and find out more is at www.crackingcomplexity.com.

[00:53:06] DB: And I am ComplexityDB on Twitter, and David is ComplexityDK.

[00:53:12] MB: Well, gentleman, thank you both so much for coming on the show, for sharing all these wisdom. Complexity is one of the biggest challenges of the world today, and it’s great to look at a number of different frameworks and strategies for helping to breakdown and solve complexity in our lives.

[00:53:12] DB: Thank you, Matt. Great speaking with you.

[00:53:30] DK: Yeah. Thanks for having us.

[00:53:32] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you, our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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May 16, 2019 /Austin Fabel
Decision Making
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Here’s Why You’re Stuck… This is How You Fix It with Gary John Bishop

May 09, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Focus & Productivity, Decision Making

In this episode we discuss how you create your own reality. We explore the idea that your life experiences are not random or arbitrary, but rather a direct result of your subconscious beliefs. When the conscious and the subconscious conflict, the sub-conscious wins and you’ll never get over your past until you realize how you use it to justify yourself. We dig into the powerful revelation that life only ever changes in the paradigm of action. You must do something differently than what you’ve done before in order to change. All of this and much more with our guest Gary John Bishop. 

Gary John Bishop is a personal development expert and is the author of the bestselling book Unfu*k Yourself: Get Out of Your Head and into Your Life and the soon to be released Stop Doing That Sh*t: End Self-Sabotage and Demand Your Life Back. His approach blends a unique in-your-face approach with high-level training and development practices. Hailing from Glasgow, Scotland Gary’s work has been featured in The New York Times, NPR, Vice, Business Insider, and much more!

  • You’re responsible for the creation of your life. You have to accept it, embrace it, be aware of it, and know it. 

  • In the living of your life - you will have to live the decisions and conclusions that you’ve made, whether you’re conscious of it or not 

  • As a human being, its incumbent upon you to go beyond yourself, expand your awareness, and live life being fully 

  • For the most part, your life is an expression of your subconscious. You’re mostly guided by the automatic. 

  • Just because you’re aware of a problematic belief or behavior -doesn’t mean you will stop doing it 

  • Why do people attend tons of personal development seminars, read books etc but then never actually change?

  • “There’s a massive difference between knowledge and awareness"

  • “At some level you must be pretty connected to having your life be the same”

  • When the conscious and the subconscious conflict, the sub-conscious wins. 

  • Your subconscious makes up almost the entirety of what drives you

  • Because I believed that “life is a struggle”, “Where life wasn’t a struggle, I would make it one"

  • Your life experiences are not random or arbitrary, they are defined by an invisible set of rules that you believe to be true - but the reality you experience may not be the same reality that other people experience - the same rules that others experience. 

  • Your life is a like the matrix, but the key difference is that you’re the rebels, AND the Matrix. 

  • You currently existing in a “Default” way of living your life - but there are infinite alternatives to being alive and living your life 

  • You are complicit and explicit in the reality that you create for yourself, and you’re not even aware to it. 

  • Freedom for a human be defined as the actions you take, in relation to your default mode of being 

  • You have to actually take action, you have to actually DO something with it. 

  • Reading a book is nice, but if you don’t do anything with it, what’s the difference in having read it or not?

  • Life ONLY EVER CHANGES in the PARADIGM OF ACTION. You must DO SOMETHING DIFFERENTLY than what YOU’VE DONE BEFORE. 

  • You don’t have to feel differently to do differently, you just have to DO differently.

  • Some of the greatest breakthroughs of science and engineering where discovered by accident.

  • Are you addicted to certainty? 

  • “If you’ve had any kind of big success in your life, you’ll notice that you did it under conditions of uncertainty” 

  • You have to go into the unknown and work your way through it to achieve anything

  • If you’ve had success, you try to preserve and maintain certainty, you lose the very strategy that made you successful (plunging into uncertainty) 

  • Embrace uncertainty in your life. 

  • If you’re not as hardcore as Gary John Bishop - how do you start taking action? 

  • Make promises to yourself, your promises have to be greater than how you feel. 

  • Start with small actions - and small steps to build momentum and credibility with yourself

  • You are not defined by your thoughts, feelings, and beliefs you are defined by your actions. 

  • “I am not my thoughts, I am what I do"

  • The beliefs that we hold at our core - manifest in our lives as all kinds of other reasons and logical explanations and rationalizations  - but we are really deceiving ourselves 

  • What if you could produce results that go beyond your current beliefs and thoughts?

  • The life you have is driven by what you do and don’t do - and what you continue to do and not do. 

  • You don’t need to think differently, you just need to do differently. 

  • You are what you do, not what you feel about what you do. 

  • Is your life about revealing the future you want or perpetuating the past? 

  • Whatever you don’t forgive lives on with you. That includes forgiving yourself and forgiving others. 

  • Forgiveness is a gift you give yourself. 

  • Withholding forgiveness perpetuates what happens, and you end up being left with the resentment. 

  • The future is far more important than your unwillingness to forgive. 

  • How do you forgive someone? How do you forgive yourself? 

  • You’ll never get over your past until you realize how you use it to justify yourself.

  • You are very consciously using your past to justify your present, you need to start uncovering instances of that and realizing that behavior pattern

  • The idea “things are the way they are, because of the way things have always been” may be a superstition. Causality is a superstition. It’s voodoo. 

  • Why can’t you be “caused” by some of the greatest experiences of your childhood? Why does it have to be the negative experiences of your childhood? 

  • Reserve causality - what if you were caused by something YET to happen? What if you were caused by something which hasn’t 

  • The simple example of a hammer hitting a nail - is that all it is? What caused the nail to go into the wood?

  • Homework: Look around in your life, look at something you’ve been tolerating, putting off, ignoring or pretending about - pick one item you’ve been tolerating and go handle it TODAY. Take that item, step into action, and go handle it TODAY, regardless of how you feel about it. 

  • You’ll realize after doing it that you’re inspired to take MORE action. 

    1. It begins with cleaning up some fo the existing mess in your life today. 

    2. The more mess you clean up, the great stuff becomes more and more clear. 

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Gary’s website

    • Gary’s Courses

  • Gary’s Twitter

  • Gary’s Facebook

Media

  • The Manual - “How to Unfu*k Yourself: Unabashed Life Wisdom from Gary John Bishop” by Steven John

  • Bustle - “7 Mantras To Help You Think More Positively, According To A Personal Development Coach” By Suzannah Weiss

  • Forbes - “15 Ways To Have The Most Productive Year Of Your Life” by Brianna Wiest

  • The Guardian - “We are what we say: how thoughts and speech shape our wellbeing” by Gary John Bishop

  • Business Insider - “I teach people to be more successful, and one of the first things I share is a simple question” by Gary John Bishop

  • Pinterest board - 83 Motivational Quotes from Unfu*k Yourself by Gary John Bishop

  • Reddit AMA (Ask Me Anything) - I am Gary John Bishop, success coach and author of breakout self-help bestseller, Unfu*k Yourself. I'm committed to Unfu*king your life, AMA!

  • [Podcast] Zibby Owens (Feb 2019) - Gary John Bishop, UNF*CK YOURSELF

  • [Podcast] Knowledge for Men - Gary John Bishop: Unf*ck Yourself! Get Out of Your Head and Into Your Life by Andrew Ferebee

  • [Podcast] Jeff Agostinelli - 097: How to Unfu*k Yourself and Flip That Outdated Story with Gary John Bishop

  • [Podcast] Dad Edge Podcast (formerly Good Dad Project) - How to Unf*ck Yourself with Gary John Bishop

  • [Podcast] Order of Man - 134: UNFU*K YOURSELF | GARY JOHN BISHOP

  • [Podcast] Elite Man podcast - How To Unfuck Yourself And Create The Life You Want – Gary John Bishop (Ep. 133)

Videos

  • Gary’s YouTube Channel

    • Getting out of your head!

    • Eventually You Are Burdened By What You Tolerate

    • The Sourceful Life - Three Minute Training - Power!  

  • Book Review: Jecht Spencer - Unfu*k Yourself: Get Out of Your Head and Into Your Life - Gary John Bishop

  • HarperOne - Gary John Bishop on Life Choices

  • Science of Success - How to stop worrying and start living - Unf*ck Yourself by Gary Bishop

Books

  • Unfu*k Yourself: Get Out of Your Head and into Your Life  by Gary John Bishop

  • Stop Doing That Sh*t: End Self-Sabotage and Demand Your Life Back by Gary John Bishop

Misc

  • [Wiki Article] Émile Coué

  • [Wiki Article] Alan Watts

  • [SoS Episode] Embracing Discomfort

  • [SoS Episode] How To Demolish What’s Holding You Back & Leave Your Comfort Zone with Andy Molinsky

  • [SoS Episode] Your Secret Weapon to Becoming Fearless with Jia Jiang

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[00:00:11] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than 3 million downloads, listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we discuss how you create your own reality. We explore the idea that your life experiences are not random or arbitrary, but rather a direct result of your subconscious believes. When the conscious and the subconscious conflict, the subconscious wins and you’ll never get over your past until you realize how you’re using it to justify yourself. We dig into the powerful revelation that life only ever changes in the paradigm of action. You must do something differently than what you’ve done before in order to change. We talk about all these and much more with our guest, Gary John Bishop.

I’m going to tell you why you’ve been missing out on some incredibly cool stuff if you haven’t signed up for our email list yet. All you have to do to sign up is to go to successpodcast.com and sign up right on the home page.

On top of tons subscriber-only content, exclusive access and live Q&As with previous guests, monthly giveaways and much more,I also created an epic free video course just for you. It's called How to Create Time for What Matters Most Even When You're Really Busy. E-mail subscribers have been raving about this guide.

You can get all of that and much more by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the home page, or by texting the word smarter to the number44-222on your phone. If you like what I do on Science of Success, my e-mail list is the number one way to engage with me and go deeper on what I discuss on the show, including free guides, actionable takeaways, exclusive content and much, much more.

Sign up for my e-mail list today by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the home page, or if you're on the go, if you're on your phone right now, it's even easier. Just text the word “smarter”, that's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number44-222.I can't wait to show you all the exciting things you'll get when you sign up and join thee-mail list.

In our previous episode, we discussed the female and male brains. Are they different? If so, what are the differences and do they matter? We looked at the science behind all of these and unlocked key insights into how you can improve your health, happiness and relationships by using a few simple strategies with our guest, Dr. Louann Brizendine. If you want some surprising science that you can use to transform your relationships, listen to our previous episode.

Now, for our interview with Gary. Please note, this episode contains profanity.

[00:03:18] MB: Today, we have another exciting guest on the show, Gary John Bishop. Gary is a personal development expert and he’s the author of the bestselling book Unfuck Yourself: Get Out of Your Head and Into Your Life, and the soon to be released Stop Doing That Shit and Self-Sabotage and Demand Your Life Back.

His approach blends a unique in your face approach with a high-level training and development practices. Hailing from Glasgow, Scotland, Gary’s work has been featured in the New York Times, NPR, Vice, Business Insider and much more.

Gary, welcome to the Science of Success.

[00:03:49] GJB: Great to be with you, Matt. Thanks for having me. Almost got my words mixed up there. But yeah, thanks for having me.

[00:03:55] MB: Oh, it happens. It happens. Well, we’re very excited to have you on here, Gary. Love your message and your work, and I can’t wait to dig in to a number of the different themes and ideas that you’ve written about and talked about.

[00:04:05] GJB: Good! Now, let’s get to it.

[00:04:06] MB: So one of the things that I really enjoy about your approach to things is this idea of – And you may not exactly call it this, but this idea of responsibility and that where we are in our lives, fundamentally, we’re responsible for the creation of that. Could you begin by unpacking that idea and explaining that a little bit?

[00:04:26] GJB: Yeah. People use the word responsibility a lot and I don’t think they use it responsibly. So it eventually comes down to be into blame for something or something is your fault, and that’s really not responsibility in the sense of a human being. So being responsible for something is a human being means like you fully accept it. You fully embrace it. You are aware of it. You know it, and you take all those things into consideration and you’re still doing the shit that you usually do, then now you’re being irresponsible.

As human beings, you don’t tend to have much sense or at least awareness of some of the stuff that have put together. Some of the things we’ve accepted as believes, some of the things that we have concluded. But ultimately in the living of one’s life, you will have to live with those decisions and conclusions, whether you’re conscious of making those decisions and conclusions or not.

So I really feel as if as human being, it’s incumbent upon you to go beyond knowing things about yourself, go beyond raking up reams of knowledge about yourself and start to make some connections, to start to expand your awareness and then to live life being fully responsible for that, which you’ve made yourself aware of.

[00:05:47] MB: The thing that I feel like so many people struggle with is that part of acknowledging and accepting the things that they either consciously or subconsciously brought into their life or created as a part of their lives.

[00:06:00] GJB: Yeah. For the most your life is subconscious expression. So what I mean by that, I mean you’re mostly guided by the automatic. Most people can tell you what they do. A lot of people can tell you why they do what they do, but not to the degree that they stop doing it. So I’m interested in getting in that a little bit deeper. What is it that’s really fueling me as a human being? That’s what I talk about extensively in Stop Doing That Shit, and I know these have these kind of like – My books kind of have these kind of abrasive titles, but there’s a lot in those books. It’s not just me telling you to stop doing something, right? I mean, you can just ask your mother. She’ll tell you to stop doing a bunch of stuff.

So my approach is definitely understanding yourself in a way that perhaps until that point in your life you might not have done. In Stop Doing That Shit, I provide you with a real pathway to joining some of the dots of your own behaviors that are working against you to reveal something that perhaps you hadn’t considered.

[00:07:11] MB: You bring up another really important idea and then expanding that out a little bit was a question that I’ve always had that I think your work hits at the heart of, which is this notion that people often time spend time, energy, money attending all kinds of personal development seminars, reading tons of self-help books, etc., and yet never really fundamentally change. Why is that?

[00:07:33] GJB: A couple of reasons. As I said, there’s a massive difference between knowledge and awareness. So I’ve met some really smart people who are about as aware as a plate of dead fish. They could tell you tons of stuff about awareness, but that hasn’t made them aware. So when you’re aware of something, when something goes off in you, when you’re enlivened by something, you get an insight of something that’s so compelling that there’s no way back from it. You can no longer act the way you’ve acted. To me, that’s a real insight.

As human beings we can tend to become these kind of insight junkies, like, “Oh, yeah! That’s really interesting.” Part of that is because when we are reading or listening or watching something, we’re doing it at just a very kind of basic level. We’re just doing it in a level of agreement and disagreement and coming up with the arguments for and against in our head as we’re doing it rather than being in it for what it might illuminate. I guess that’s part of my problem with philosophy in general is way too interested in itself rather than its usefulness.

Why do we often not really change? Because we’re still pretty much addicted to the mess that we’ve built because there’s a kind of gravity, a certain kind of certainty and the life you have even though you might not particularly like the life you have or say you really want to change it or even be doing a lot of stuff that you feel that you have to change it. At some level you must be pretty connected to having to be the same, and that is a big part of what Stop Doing That Shit is about. It really is about once and for all revealing what your resistance to change is grounded at.

[00:09:25] MB: That phrase, at some level you must be pretty connected to having things be the same. So powerful and yet I think listeners may not fully graph the importance and the depth behind that. Can you explain that a little bit more and really what that actually means?

[00:09:40] GJB: Yeah. There’s a French guy by the name of Émile Coué. I think that’s how you pronounce his name. There’s an inflection at the end, so I’m presuming there’s an emphasis on the A. But anyway, Émile Coué, he lived in like the 18th century and he said – He didn’t say it this way. He said it in a much more French eloquent way, but this is the Scottish interpretation you’re getting. When the conscious and the subconscious conflict, the subconscious wins.

So if I’ve subconsciously, and your subconscious by the way isn’t some foo-foo made up thing. It’s real. You don’t need me to give you evidence of it. You stroll your way through Google. Neuroscience agrees that’s real. It’s a thing. It’s there. It makes up most of what do I feel. When I say most, I mean almost entirely what do I feel.

But what if you looked at your life in the perspective of your subconscious? What if you looked at your life and said, “Well, what if all these is supposed to be this way? What does it prove? What is this bring to life for me as a human being?”

So I’ll give you an example and this is one of the examples I talk about in the book, but it took me a number of years to discover that at some level at some time in my life concluded that life is a struggle. I have to stance of doing such a thing. I have no stance of like, “Oh, yeah. Life is a struggle.” I just realize that when I look around me, like everything is a struggle. It was nothing that wasn’t a struggle. It was all hard work. I notice these other people how they were interacting with life wasn’t like mine. I also noticed that where life wasn’t a struggle, I would make it one. I’ll find a way to have the struggle come to life, and it was digging and digging and digging at that. I started to see like not only was in my experience of things was life a struggle, but that I was actively engaging myself with things that would make it one, and none of it was an accident. I would look at myself sabotaging. Suddenly myself sabotage became obvious. Well, of course, and this is what kind of tied in to what Coué said. Anytime something that came up that would conflict with the notion that life is a struggle, I would either dismiss it or throw a hand grenade in it so I’ll blow it up.

I have no sense of doing such a thing, but if you track my behaviors, it was not only dead on the money, but it was consistent and cyclical and it was – I’m sure your listeners can relate to this. Situations where my wife would seemingly be going in the direction, and then boom! And then going in the right direction, and then boom! And then going in the right direction, and then boom! Over and over and over.

My assertion is – Again, that’s in the book. That’s what we’re doing as human beings. We’re overcoming something, almost getting there. Something’s temporarily getting there and then bringing the conclusion by to life again over and over and over, and then you die.

[00:12:50] MB: So this idea that your belief that life was a struggle was showing up in all kinds of areas of your life. It was cropping up in seemingly unrelated things and you make a really important point, which I want to underscore, which is this notion that this isn’t something you were consciously trying to do. It was a subconscious pattern that was manifesting itself.

[00:13:11] GJB: Right. It all started for me a number of years ago by actually getting out of bed one morning and I actually caught myself, reminding myself who I was pissed off at. I kind of had to remind myself, like, “Oh, yeah.”

Then when I looked at it really closely, I noticed that in moments before that, I wasn’t pissed off at them. So they weren’t even on my mind. I had to like, check-in with my reality. You might have listeners right now that are nodding their head going, “Oh my gosh! I’ve done that.” So it’s not rocket science really to start to understand it. Every morning, I don’t wake up into the world. I wake up into a very specific world, a world of my nuances, by biases, my upsets, my view of things if you like. But more, deeper than that actually is my experience of being alive. There’s just what it’s like for me to engage with this life, and it’s not arbitrary. It’s not just some random experience of being alive. It’s a very defined one with certain limitations and certain sacred cows and certain – Like it’s just very defined.

The people that I would call my friends are the ones who have a life experience that’s closer to my, right? So that would be like, “Oh, you see it that way and you experience it –” “Oh, yeah. I do too.” “Yeah, we should be friends.” Then people who don’t, like you experience it in a totally different way. Well, clearly, you’re just an idea or you’re wrong or something.

But what I’m experiencing as a human being – And I started to really get like every day I reintroduce the Matrix. I just reintroduce it and then I live it, and then I reintroduce it and I live it. So seeing that life was a struggle for me was like seeing the black cat in the Matrix. It was like, “Oh, shoot! There’s the program,” and it took me a while to come in terms with it. In the Matrix, I am both the rebels and the Matrix. I’m all of it. I’m the whole thing, and it was really – It’s suddenly my self-sabotage and the ways that I would undermine myself. It just revealed itself like this kind of unfolding series of aha moments and start to really understand that there exists for me or within me, if you like, which is I don’t even know it’s within me in a literal sense, but there is the presence of a default way of living, that I until I discovered it, it was the only way of living. When I discovered it and saw it as a default way of living, suddenly I could see all these alternatives. Suddenly I could see all these other ways of being alive and being expressed and having my life be a bit something a little other than overcoming what’s there for me to overcome by default.

[00:16:20] MB: I love the Matrix analogy, because I think it comes back to the original idea that we were talking about before, this notion of responsibility and the face that your life experiences are not random or arbitrary. They’re defined by an invisible set of rules that you believe to be true. But the reality you’re experiencing is not the same reality that other people experience.

I love this notion that if it’s the Matrix, you’re the rebels in the sense that you’re trying to change yourself, but the really important thing that you said is that you’re also the Matrix. Your complicit and explicitly creating this reality that you’re experiencing and you’re not even aware of it.

[00:16:56] GJB: I would be willing to wager that most of your listeners or a large percentage of your listeners are what I would call have a default way of being called being analytical. They’re kind of drawn to your conversation because it gets to scratch that particular itch. There’s nothing wrong with being analytical. In fact, again, most of the lessons, if you look at being analytical as a way of being, you’ll find that works very well in your career.

However, being analytical is one of those things as a way of being, as a default way of being. It’s a little too fascinated with itself. So somebody might come up with a solution for you and you’ll like this solution, but then you’ll start to analyze and then you’ll what if it, and you’ll could have, should have, would have it until its usefulness is no longer applicable, which means you don’t need to analyze different and other answer. Does that make sense?

[00:17:55] MB: Yeah. I think it definitely makes sense.

[00:17:57] GJB: All right, good. But if you start to see like, “Wow!” That’s what I do by default. Actually, that’s part of my default wiring, because an analyst just needs problems. It’s a very internal state. It can also be a worrisome state as a way of being. Again, I’m coming to this from an anthological perspective. That is, looking at a human being from a perspective of their ways of being right. [inaudible 00:18:22] and from the perspective of your ways of being.

Being responsible means I’ve done the work to reveal those to myself in such a way that they make other things available and that I can actually see the ways in which the default ways of being intrude in the quality of my life or in my ability to go beyond what I think my potential is and I’m responsible for them in such a way that their impact on me and my wife diminishes greatly. I’m fascinated by a human’s being ability to go beyond who they have come to know themselves as.

Martin Heidegger, the German philosopher said, “Freedom for a human being can be found in the actions that one takes,” and I’m going to paraphrase here, “can be found in the actions that one takes when confronted by one’s default self.” That is, when I notice my default self and yet I act independently of that, Heidegger says that was and is freedom for a human being.

[00:19:33] MB: That’s really powerful, and the focus that you have and you talk about in taking action, is something that’s so important and many ways shapes the structure and the ideas around our show. We try to always figure out how can we create concrete action steps and ways for the listeners to implement things. So I really love to see that as a core component of what your message and the fact that it’s not just about becoming aware and then accepting the default network. You actually have to take action. You actually have to do something to change it.

[00:20:07] GJB: Yeah. You got to drive a bus through it as I’d like to say, right? You got to drive a bus through it. One of my pet peeves right now is social media with people posting pictures and then declaring they’ve read their 19th book of the year or whatever that is. You know, “This is my 32nd book,” and I say this is fine, but what are you changing? What have you taken on? What did you realize? What did you uncover? What have you transformed? What have you transcended? How has the reading of that single book shifted your life?

I’m a great believer and you could basically read any book and find something in there that you could use to change your life. I really mean that you could read a book about Greek architecture and find something in there that actually inspires you to change your life or gives you the kind of insight, if you think about it, to change your life.

Change and life by the way does not come from insights, and I love insights by the way. I love a good old-fashioned Scottish insight. However, life only ever changes, only, only ever, ever changes in the paradigm of action. So that is that you now do differently than you did before. The illusion is that somehow we feel as if or we think that we have to feel differently in order to do differently. That is not true. That’s nonsense. That’s why the whole thing about positivity kind of grinds my gears a little.

Some of the most positive things I’ve ever done in my life, I did them with a negative mindset. I don’t have to tell myself that it was awesome to do awesome things. I found that my – I got to being an extraordinary human being and engaging with extraordinary things as an ordinary man. So that is with all the nuances and biases of every other ordinary man, and there’s nothing extraordinary about me at all in the slightest. I’m just an average kind of guy who engages with extraordinary things and gets challenged by them. There’s no special genetic kind of disposition for extraordinary going on over here. I’m a very ordinary human being with a pretty unspectacular life. What makes a human being extraordinary is the kind of things they engage themselves with and the actions they take, right? Because life only ever shifts.

By the way, you didn’t have to believing I’m saying. Try it out. Try it out for yourself. Try it. You’ll see that your life changes only in the paradigm action. If you’re not making physical changes, more of this, less of that, less of that, more of this, your life won’t change. You might feel a bit better, but it will be the same nonsense.

[00:23:04] MB: Reminds me of that classic quote, “If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always gotten.” I feel like so many people fall into the trap of waiting to feel good or waiting to feel that they’re ready to start taking action. As you’re saying, it’s really almost the opposite. You need to take action first and then the changes start to actually accumulate.

[00:23:30] GJB: Right. So I would put almost all of my success in life in the last dozen years or so into throwing myself into things that I have no idea how I was going to do them, which was a complete shift from how I’ve done it before. I always needed to plan it out and make sure I knew I was doing and ta-ta-ta-ta-ta, and if I wasn’t feeling it, then I’m not doing it and I don’t feel confident enough and I don’t feel as if I know enough, which if you’re analytical, yeah, that’s like a hamster on a wheel right there because you’ll never know enough.

Again, if you just use reality, some of the greatest breakthroughs of science and engineering were made by accident. So they were made by people actually working on something else and then like, “Oh! What’s that?” Which tells you that in the paradigm action, when you’re acting on something. I don’t mean just sitting in your chair thinking about, because thinking isn’t an action, and you’re actually doing. You’re producing. That’s where discoveries are made. That’s where actually you make progress, it’s in the doing. It’s not like I’m anti-thinking about doing. I just think it’s way overrated.

[00:24:38] MB: This also dovetails a little bit into one of the core themes that you talk and write about as well, which underscores a lot of these feelings of not being ready or not taking action, which is the need for certainty.

[00:24:50] GJB: Yeah, we’re addicted to certainty, and it gets worse as you get older. So when you’re really young – I got three kids. I have a 14-year-old, 7-year-old and a 4-year-old, and the 4-year-old has no concern for certainly. Like he just doesn’t care. He’s out there, he’s living, he’s doing it.

The 14-year-old is getting more and more concerned for things being a certain way, and that just gets more and more and more as you get older. I talk about this in my first book, I’d say, “Look, if you have had any kind of success in your life, you’ll notice that you did it in a condition off uncertainty.” So any kind of big success you feel as if you produced, whether you went to college, moved to a new town, applied for a new job, started a business, whatever, you’ve asked somebody out, whatever your thing is, “That was a big thing for me.” You’ll see you did in a condition of uncertainty. That is you went into the unknown and you worked your way through it.

Now, you’ll also notice that when you have had some kind of success in a certain area, that what then follows is trying to preserve it or maintain it, right? So you’ve now given up on the very strategy that got you there. Now you’re in some other strategy. How do I preserve my certainty? Because, by and large as human beings, we just hate, hate, hate, hate uncertainty, yet we’re drawn to it. So I want things to be – Some level I want things to be same, but I want this new thing.

My view is that’s the kind of crossroads where human beings exist. They exist in this kind of crossroads between having things be the same, yet desiring the new. If you want new things to happen in your life, you need to be someone who starts to get comfortable with that you don’t know how it’s going to turn out. If anything’s going to give you any comfort, that would be the knowledge that if doesn’t turn out, you’re going to be fine. Your survival kick in. You’ll work your way through it. You’ll be fine

So I really encourage people to embrace uncertainty in life to really get – If you really ought to have something great happen, then uncertainty is going to be a part of it. You’re either going to resist that and stick to what you know or you’re going to reach for something way beyond your potential or at least the potential that you think you have.

[00:27:10] MB: I couldn’t agree more, and we’ve had many, many episodes in the show where we talk about the importance of embracing uncertainty. What are some of the strategies that you found that are particularly helpful, exercises or things to begin to step into the uncertain?

[00:27:26] GJB: Yeah. I mean, I’ve done a lot of work on myself, Matt. I really dug in the depths, right? I’ve been into the dirt where people just don’t go, and I’ve really uncovered an awful lot of what was driving this kind of persona of mine, right? Why it was also important. So that was a big part of it was this kind of uncovering.

But a really simple strategy that I still use, and I use this all the time, is this whole notion of personal promises. Promises aren’t something we really use in our lives, right? We don’t. We say things like, “I’m going to try,” “I want to,” “I’m going to,” but nobody is really like sticking a flag in the ground saying, “I promise to delivery this by ta-ta-ta-ta, a day or something.”

So when I wrote my first book, when I wrote Unfuck Yourself, I noticed that I was having a physiological reaction to the idea of writing a book. I’m getting butterflies in my stomach. I noticed when it came down to it, I just didn’t want to write it. Now, I could get into, “Oh, let’s uncover why you don’t want to write it and all that stuff,” and I did to some degree or another. But rather what I did was I stuck a flag in the ground and said, “Okay. I’m going to give myself nine months to write this book and I’m going to deliver yon it.”

So every day, I would get up, I would go to the laptop and I would notice there was some kind of mood I was in, some kind of, “Oh, look,” that I had. Some kind of feeling that I had that I was in contrast to what I said I would do. So what I started to live was the life of my promises. So I’ve started to live – I started to do what I said I would do and give less and less and less attention to how I felt about what I was doing.

So I would say my success as a writer is completely a function of delivering on the promises that I made and everywhere along the way handling myself, and handling, my resignation, and handling my cynicism, and handling my upsets, and handling my circumstances to delivery on what I said I would do. Having what I said I would do reach the kind of importance that it deserves, which it deserves an importance way greater than how I might feel about any of that. Because my promises exist outside of me. They don’t exist in my or they don’t – I don’t experience my promises.

So my promises are like a straight line from here to there and all the junk in between here and there is how I feel about it and like whether my circumstances fit with it and ta-ta-ta-ta-ta. So I make bold promises in my wife. I’m not careful about promises. By the way, I’m bold about them. I get out there. I make promises that I’m not really sure if I can keep it or not and I turn myself inside out to deliver on them. I’m not somebody – You don’t talk me out of my promises. I make them. I deliver on them. I make them. I deliver on them. I make them. I deliver on them. All that junk that happens in our life has little to no impact on the power of the promises that I make to myself, in my wife, in my profession, in my relationships, because the promises that I make to myself are getting bigger and bolder and more compelling and they call me out. They call me to be a greater self.

[00:30:56] MB: For someone who’s not as hardcore as you, and honestly I think you and I are similar in the sense that I’m also very hardcore. I try to push myself really hard. What are some of the ways that people can step into taking more action?

[00:31:10] GJB: Yeah, and that’s a great question. So this whole world of personal promises actually starts small. So if you start with a promise – I’ll give you a simple one that people just wrestle with for some reason. But anyway, you set your alarm for 6AM. Promise yourself you’re going to be up the first ring. So the first one that goes off, get up. That’s the promise you had make yourself, and that promise is greater than how you feel when you wake up. Because you might feel, “Oh, I hardly didn’t sleep.” “Oh, I’ve got a sore head.” “Oh, it’s cold.” You got to set all that aside and hold yourself to that promise. So it’s all simple things, like little promises.

Now, human beings – And this is the thing that just never ceases to amaze me. The more you keep promises, the more emboldened you’ll get. You’ll actually start to experience yourself as a bigger human being. So it’s no surprise that one might relate to oneself a small or incapable or somehow not quite up to the task, because your life is filled with a trail of broken promises, things you would tell yourself that you want to do it and then for some reason or another, you are able to talk yourself out of it. Then that just kind of gets thrown in the backpack like another little disappointment. So you got to build that back up again. You got to come back. You got to really start to bring forth the presence of your personal power and you do it in little ways.

So one of the things that I took on a while back was intermittent fasting, okay? So I’d read about it and understood it, and I love pizza and fast food and all that kind of stuff, and I didn’t fancy the whole idea of living the rest of my life on a diet. I didn’t fast like eating kale all the way to the grave. So I looked for something that I thought can work for me, and I came across this intermittent fasting, which is you eat during an 8-hour window and then you don’t eat for 16 hours and you do that every day. For me, it looks like I don’t eat till noon, and then the last thing I can eat is 8 at night.

At the beginning it was so challenging. I mean, because physiology my body is like, “Have a snack,” or every time you go in the refrigerator, like, “Eat that sandwich,” and it was just on and on and on, and I’ll did was just these little victories of like, “No, I said I wouldn’t eat, so I’m not eating.” “All right. I said I wouldn’t eat at this time, so I’m not eating.” It was really, really challenging. The first months was like, “Oh my God! I don’t think I can do this.”

Then I noticed like it was getting easier and easier and easier and easier and I was starting to get bolder and bolder with the promises. Like I really felt it was if my personal power was coming to life. Literally, what I was experiencing was a victory for what I said over how I felt. So I would say to people, “Start – Layout some small, even just one small victory that’s a victory for what you said over how you feel and start to pepper your life with those little victories, like that’s a victory for what I said over how I feel. That’s a victory for what I said over how I feel, and you’ll actually start to see, gather this body of evidence for that your life could be a series of promises fulfilled.

[00:34:27] MB: That’s a great way to break it down, starting with small, easily definable, easily executable actions and promises, and it’s like a snowball rolling downhill. Slowly builds more and more and more momentum. That also makes me think of tangentially related idea or a theme that you talked about, which is this notion that we’re not defined by our feelings, our thoughts, our believes, but we’re only fundamentally defined. Our identities are really truly defined by our actions.

[00:34:57] GJB: Right. I wanted people to get the sense, because look, we all have an inner critique. We all have some internal dialogue, which basically – It exists like some kind of conundrum. It seems like no matter what you do, there it is. Whatever your sense – Mostly in our lives we’re trying to organize ourselves around it, right?

So if your internal dialogue is fundamentally from something like, “I’m not smart enough.” That will be guiding you in ways that you can’t even imagine. You will literally – It’ll seem like legitimate reasons, like, “Oh, I’m not doing it because of this, this, this, this and this,” but if you peel all that back you’ll see what’s the running the whole thing is I’m not smart enough, and I’m giving you an example here.

So now you’re actually being defined by something called I’m not smart enough. So your life is getting defined by – So those jobs you won’t apply for. You won’t write that book. You’re not going to move to that town. Why? Because at some level you don’t think you’re up to it. You’ll have a lot – Again, on the surface, compelling reasons. They all are being put there to kind of bring some logic to the whole thing. But ultimately, you are being pushed in a certain direction by something that’s going on with you below the surface.

I say, well, first, if you could recognize out this interest. Secondly, what if you could produce results that go beyond that? For me, writing a book was something that goes beyond what’s going on with me subconsciously. I mean, someone with my internal wiring wouldn’t write a book. It wouldn’t do it.

So the only way I am author by virtue of the actions I took, period. How I felt about all of that played little or no part in it, and if it’s only actions, like I talked to earlier, actions are the paradigm of change. That’s where your life changes, in the actions that you take and the actions that you don’t take. Then it brings a lot – It takes all the attention away from working on like – I don’t know, getting more confidence or whatever the thing is that I think may be going on with me internally that I need to fix, if I actually focus on, “Okay. But let’s say this thing that I want to do, what if I just did it?” Then you’re actually now – You’re living your life is a reflection of your action.

I mean, look, you’re currently living your life as a reflection of your actions. I mean, the life you have is given by what you did and didn’t do and that what you continue to do and not do. So, again, if you want to bring real insignificant change to the directions or the trajectory of your life, I know a lot of people will say, “Well, think differently.” I don’t think you have to. I think you need to do differently than you’ve done before. I think today you need to do something that you didn’t do yesterday, something that’s more in line with the future you’re out to have, and I think you increasingly need to pepper your lie with those kinds of actions, because when it comes down to it, you are what you do, rather than you are how you feel about what you do.

[00:38:23] MB: That’s a really powerful way to phrase it. What would you say to somebody who’s listening that’s thinking to themselves, “You’re just trying to bury your feelings or push your feelings aside, and that’s not necessarily a healthy way to think about taking action.”

[00:38:40] GJB: Well, I wouldn’t agree with burying your feelings. I think about a point in society where we’ve made our feelings. There was once upon a time in history where your feelings were completely discounted, and people had the experience of being suppressed I think would endanger of going the whole other way now, where it’s all about your feelings.

I’m not any different than anybody. I also experience loss, disappointment. I experienced all those things, and [inaudible 00:39:07]. At some point whether you’re experiencing any of those things, loss, or disappointment, or apathy, or you don’t experience yourself as somebody who has confidence. That actually is the only thing that you have any say in. You don’t have a say in what the world is going to do. The world is going to do what it’s going to do. You have a massive say in your experience of this world. Nobody is going to come and save you in that regard.

So I will acknowledge how I feel. If I’m in some kind of a negative state, I’ll acknowledge. I don’t just crush it and press it down. I don’t do any of that. I acknowledge it. I give it the space that it deserves. If you’ve given it more space than it deserves, it will have the final say in how your life goes. So I’m not going tell people like suppress their emotions. Saying to people, “You need to put them in prospect. You need to put them in the right place.” If you’re feeling sad or you’re feeling disappointed, those are appropriate to being a human being. They’re very appropriate to the experience of being a human being, but they’re not the kind of things that i would use to define my life.

As I say to people, “You’re more like a conduit as supposed to your location.” Experiences come and go. Feelings come and go. They’re legitimate. They’re real. They’re part of the notion of what it is to be a human being, but you should be aware and very responsible for the significance that you put on those feelings and you should be very responsible for the impact they have in your life overall, because no one can be responsible for that other than you. No one can have a say in that other than you. Ultimately, like I said, no one’s coming and save you. If you really want to do great things and go beyond your own set of personal constraints that will require you to act with those negative feelings sometimes there, sometimes not there.

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[00:43:08] MB: Earlier you talked about one of the core strategies for overcoming self-sabotage, being around the importance of creating alternatives for yourself, alternative ways of belief, alternative ways of understanding. How do we go about starting to create some of those alternatives?

[00:43:26] GJB: One of the things that I do, and I do this regularly, is I – This is an example that I used in Stop Doing That Shit and the latest book. It was said that when Michael Angelo created David, it was from a giant block of marble. It was said that in his mind, David was already done. All he was doing was revealing David. So every step, like he’s just taking another piece of way that was in David.

I invite people to kind of take their lives on that way, like they start with the ending. Start with, “This is done.” All I’m doing is revealing it. I look at my life in a day-to-day actions is what I’m doing today. Revealing a future or perpetuating the past is what I’m doing, revealing the future or perpetuating a past. In very short order, you’ll see that most of your life is about perpetuating the past.

So if I’m out to have a future of having written five books, every day I’m taking actions that are either consistent with five books or something else. So it’s not a hard comparison to make. It’s pretty easy to see you’re taking your life in a direction that’s not consistent with what you, yourself, have created. Again, that’s where the importance of those promises start to grow and become more significant.

[00:44:52] MB: How does forgiveness play into overcoming some of these limiting beliefs that contribute so much to self-sabotage?

[00:45:00] GJB: Yeah. If you or somebody who struggles to forgive, you better learn fast, because whatever you don’t forgive lives on with you. That includes forgiving yourself and forgiving others. Forgiveness is a gift you give yourself, because it feels like often for us as human beings, if I don’t forgive somebody at sometimes, it’s somehow evens up whatever they did or didn’t do, and it doesn’t. It perpetuates what they did or didn’t do, and you’re the one that’s left with the resentment.

So you can’t have no forgiveness without resentment. I don’t care how many times you convince yourself that you can. That’s bullshit. You can’t – By the way, if anybody is listening to this right now and they can experience their emotional state start to rise, that’s exactly what I’m talking about. That’s what you’ve given yourself. You’ve given yourself the gift of anger and resentment and upset. Sometimes it’s like you’re despondent or you’ve turned yourself into a victim or something. So as a human being, I feel as if it’s incumbent upon on each of us to forgive as quickly as possible. Why? Because the future is far more important than your unwillingness to forgive and to hang on to the past.

[00:46:25] MB: Such a powerful way to phrase that. I love that phrasing; the future is more important than your unwillingness to forgive.

[00:46:31] GJB: Correct. Look, I never said forgiveness is easy, but one of the things that I’m able to do with people is actually show them how to forgive. I mean, nobody really shows you how to do that. How do you forgive another? Or how do you forgive myself?

The one with yourself is a little easier. You don’t forgive yourself because it allows you to stay and whatever you’ve done. It allows you to keep that as some kind of excuse not to move ahead. So people say, “Oh, yeah. I can forgive all the people, but I can’t forgive myself.” Oh! You’re an asshole. You got to cut that shit out. I’ll tell you why you got to cut that shit out, because it allows you to justify this crappy life that you currently have. You’ll never ever get over your past until you deal with how you’ve used your past to justify the current life you have.

[00:47:28] MB: That’s one of my favorite quotes from your work. Tell me more. Unpack that a little bit more for me.

[00:47:34] GJB: Yeah. You’ve built a life around your past. I mean, it doesn’t seem like you have. You’ve become – Some people have become harsher because of their past. Some people have become less vulnerable in their mind because of their past. But if you read anything like Alan Watts for instance, he’ll tell you there’s no cause and effect from the past or the present. It’s not real. It’s a made up thing by human beings. You’re not really caused by the past. It’s just something you’ve hang on to. By the way, if any of your listeners who have never listened to Alan Watts, have read anything bu Alan Watts, he’ll shake your reality to its very core.

Some people would say, “Well, I’m on this relationship with this person, but we never had love when I was a kid. So I have to struggle when we have love I this relationship.” That’s an example of using the past to justify that you’re just unwilling to share or be vulnerable with this person. You’re just not willing to deal with whatever you need to deal with personally to love another. Therefore you perpetuate the myth of your own past.

I mean, the examples of massive. At a crappy drive when you worked this morning. So therefore the rest of the day is screwed, or, “Why you’re in a bad mood?” “Oh, it’s just I’m having a tough time right now.” “Well, not right now you’re not. You might have done yesterday, or this morning, or this week, or this month, but right now that’s using the past to justify yourself right now.”

So you didn’t always have a say in some of the stuff that happened in your life. You don’t always have a saying in some of that. But you have all the say in how that’s going to impact your life moving forward. Part of shacking yourself free from the grip of that and starting to realize that you are in fact very consciously using your past to justify your present. If you can uncover 1, 2, 10, 50 examples of that, you start to see that you’ve pretty much turned yourself into a small human being.

[00:49:39] MB: This is a bit of an aside, but I’m a tremendous Alan Watts fan. He’s one of my all-time favorite thinkers and writers and really one of the most insightful people. It’s amazing, because he died so many years ago. It was like 30, 40 years ago, and yet his work is still so powerful and so resonant.

[00:49:57] GJB: Yeah. Well, one of the things – I talk about this by the way in my latest book, Watts talked about causality, and that the illusion for human beings that causality travels from the past to the present and to the future like a line. It’s always flowing in one direction. So things are the way they are because of the way things have been. We live with that. I would call that no more than a superstition. Having been dwelling in that notion for probably a good five or six years now.

Causality is by and large a superstition and it’s voodoo, right? If you gather real thought, like when one makes able to hammer. The head of the hammer drives the nail cause and effect. Okay. Well, about the arm? Okay. What about the brain? What about the belief that the person has? What about – There’s so many other aspects. But if you give up the idea that something happens in the specifics of a causality, people talk about, “I am the way I am because of the way my father was.” No. You are the way you are because of the items that you cherry picked about your father that now explain the way you are, but there are a lot of other aspects about your father that you rode off or other aspects of your child that you just dismissed.

So then your whole notion of – I mean, why can’t I be caused by – If causality travels from the past to the present? Why can’t I be caused by some of the great days of my childhood? Why can’t that be the cause of why I am? Why can’t I be filled with joy because of that great day I spent playing soccer when I was nine? Why does it have to be that time when my father fought my mom?

I love dispelling the notion of causality, like I am here as a cause of something, like something caused me to be this way. I actually talk about this notion of reverse causality that is being caused by something yet to come, which is a whole lot of creation, right? What if I was influenced by caused by and inspired by that, which has not happened yet?

[00:52:11] MB: You know, that’s one of my favorite ideas from Alan Watts, this notion of the hammer hitting the nail. If you expand out anything, at this exact moment your entire life, any instance of anything that’s ever happened, it’s completely inseparable from everything. There’s no way to trace it back to anything except for the entire collective history of the whole cosmos.

[00:52:35] GJB: All right. That’s awesome. So therefore, like your petty complaints are a little more than just petty complaints.

[00:52:41] MB: That’s right. For listeners who – We’ve covered a lot of really interesting topics today. For listeners who want to concretely start somewhere with an action step or the way to begin implementing this, what would be one piece of homework that’s an action item that you would give to them to begin this journey?

[00:52:58] GJB: That’s a great question. This is what people can get to right away. Looking on in your life, whatever items you can choose, but something you’ve been tolerating, something you’ve been putting up with, something you’ve been putting off, something you’ve been ignoring or pretending about. It could be anything. It could be your closet in your bedroom. It could be your car. It could be those bills with taxes. Pick an item. One item that you’ve been tolerating and go handle it today.

I don’t mean like, “Oh, yeah! I want to do it in Thursday and next –” Handle it today. Take that item. Step up on your feet and go handle that item. Again, regardless of how you feel about that item [inaudible 00:53:41], I don’t know what I’m doing. I’m confused.” Get in there and get it handled.

Again, this is one of those things that has this accumulative effect. You’ll realize it after doing it, like you’re inspired to do another, and inspired to do another. So you want to make real change in your life. It begins by cleaning up some of the mess you’ve made. So there’s no point just going at the great stuff. Start cleaning up some mess. The more mess you clean up, you’ll realize the great stuff, things you thought you could do, start to get clearer and clearer. They come more into your field of vision and you’re more compelled to act on those things. Pick something simple. Pick something you’ve been tolerating and handle it.

[00:54:21] MB: Love it. That’s a great piece of homework for the listeners. For listeners who want to find more of your work, your books, etc., online, what is the best place for them to do that?

[00:54:32] GJB: You can find me on my website, garyjohnbishop.com. You can find me on Twitter @GaryJohnBishop. I’m on Instagram @GaryJohnBishop. You can find me on Facebook. One of the things that I’m really committed is that people get lots of free stuff. So I’m always putting stuff out online that will inspire you or cause you to think, really have you engage with that idea.

Obviously, on my website, you can buy any of my books. I’ve got a couple of courses on there. Courses are cheap. I don’t do this 99 bucks a month stuff. You can actually buy one of my courses that last for about 3-1/2 hours. You get all of the materials with it to do the course. It’ll cost you maybe – It depends. Something just sells on 75 bucks, 99 bucks for the course and you have the course for its entirety and you can do it as many times you’ll like. So I’m committed that people get to interact with me and participate with my work at a kind of cost that doesn’t require them, I guess, like a job or something.

[00:55:27] MB: Well, Gary, thank you so much for coming on the show, for sharing all these wisdom, some really insightful ideas and thoughts and examples and a great piece of action for the listeners to take after they listen to this episode.

[00:55:39] GJB: Awesome. Thanks for having me.

[00:55:41] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you, our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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May 09, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Focus & Productivity, Decision Making
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The Scientific Difference Between Female & Male Brains with Dr. LouAnn Brizendine

May 02, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making, Influence & Communication

In this episode we discuss the the male and female brains. Are they different? If so, what are the differences and do they matter? We look at the science behind all of this and unlock key insights into how you can improve your health, happiness, and relationships with by using a few simple strategies with our guest Dr. Louann Brizendine.

Dr. Louann Brizendine is the Founder of The Women's Mood and Hormone Clinic and a neuropsychiatrist at UCSF. She is the author of the New York Times best-selling books, "The Female Brain" and "The Male Brain"  and executive producer of the 2017 movie, The Female Brain. She has served as faculty at both Harvard and UCSF and her work has been featured in The Harvard Business Review, The Guardian, and much more!

  • How do we use science of a decision-making framework?

  • Should we stop using science to shape our decisions because it gets things wrong?

  • Why do scientists and experts often hedge their bets when citing evidence and research?

  • Can we believe Science? Is science useful or not?

  • Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater - science and give us really actionable and useful information starting today 

  • The process and the progress of science is constantly questioning and constantly testing your assumptions - this is how you move towards the best answers and objective truth

  • The male and female brain are more alike than they are different, but they do have differences 

  • Starting as early as eight weeks of fetal life, the male’s tiny testicles start to pump out testosterone that shape substantial changes in the male’s brain vs the female’s brain

  • The biology is straightforward - males and females have different brains

  • The major differences in the male and female brain have to do with reproduction 

  • Puberty impacts males and females differently, and shapes their brains and behaviors in a number of ways 

  • From age 11 to age 15 - a man's testosterone levels spike by 25x 

  • How much of our gender roles are a result of culture, parenting, and biology?

  • “Relationship play” vs “rough and tumble play” for young boys and girls 

  • Is the debate on nature vs nurture dead?

  • These behavioral patterns and traits are like a standard distribution that mostly overlap, but do have differences 

  • Does this research about the human brain reinforce gender stereotypes and biases?

  • What is ‘daddy brain’ and how does it affect men?

    • Testosterone decreases by 30% for about 6 months

    • This triggers the male brain to be more protective and more nurturing 

    • You can hear infants cry from much further away

  • Video games impact the male brain by tapping into your search for mastery and flow

  • How do we shape or change our behavior as a result of our different brains?

  • Other people are different from you - they think differently! 

  • Why offering people advice or solutions instead of validating their feelings can often be the wrong strategy 

  • If you’re missing the emotional component when to try to influence people, you’re missing a key piece 

  • Homework: For men - say “Honey, I know how you feel” and then pause 

  • Homework: For women - Men’s testosterone levels are 10x more than yours, that means your partner is (if you’re the same age) 3x more sexually interested than you are 

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Dr. Brizendine’s Website

  • Dr. Brizendine’s Facebook

  • Dr. Brizendine’s LinkedIn

  • Dr. Brizendine’s Wiki Page

Media

  • [Blog Article] Carl Sagan’s Cosmos, Conciousness, Venus Colonies and More by Matt Bodnar

  • [Article] Simply Psychology - “Pavlov's Dogs” By Saul McLeod

  • [Article] “Eleanor Maccoby: How Much Do Parents Matter? Reading and Misreading Behavior Genetics” By Christine VanDeVelde Luskin

  • Article directory on Huffpost

  • ABC News - Louann Brizendine: 'The Male Brain'

  • [Article] The Guardian - Do women really talk more? By Stephen Moss

  • [Article] Booktopia - Nature v Nurture – Louann Brizendine’s take on it all by Toni Whitmont

  • [Article] HBR article - One Reason Women Don’t Make It to the C-Suite by Louann Brizendine, MD

  • [Podcast] Art of Manliness - #410: The Male Brain

  • [Podcast] Live Life Better - LouAnn Brizendine

  • [Podcast] Human Current - Episode 59: A Closer Look At The Female Brain

    • Accompanying Blog post: Dr. Louann Brizendine on Modern Life & the Female Brain by Haley Campbell

  • [Podcast] Podfanatic - Episode: Brizendine, Dr. Louann — The Female & the Male Brain: There is a Difference

Videos

  • Maker’s Video Interview List

  • LouAnn’s Youtube Channel

  • Philippe SHOCK Matthews - Dr. Louann Brizendine on the Male HATE Brain

    • Dr. Louann Brizendine on the Sexual Harassment Brain

  • The Female Brain by Louann Brizendine - Book Review

  • The How Movement - Ghetto Stress on the Female Brain - Dr Louann Brizendine

  • Louann Brizendine | Talks at Google (

  • One Mind - The Female and Male Brains in Psychiatry: Dr. Louann Brizendine

  • TED Talks - Louann Brizendine at TEDxBerkeley

  • The Female Brain (2017 Film Adaptation)

Books

  • [Book] The Female Brain by Louann Brizendine

  • [Book] The Male Brain: A Breakthrough Understanding of How Men and Boys Think by Louann Brizendine

Misc

  • [Wiki Article] Couvade syndrome

  • US News Health Profile - LouAnn Brizendine

  • LouAnn Brizendine IMDB page

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than three million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we discuss the female and male brains. Are they different? If so, what are the differences and do they matter? We look at the science behind all of this and unlock key insights into how you can improve your health, happiness and relationships by using these simple strategies with our guest, Dr. Louann Brizendine.

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On top of tons subscriber-only content, exclusive access and live Q&As with previous guests, monthly giveaways and much more, I also created an epic free video course just for you. It's called How to Create Time for What Matters Most Even When You're Really Busy. E-mail subscribers have been raving about this guide.

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Have you ever desperately wanted something and then as soon as you get it, or as soon as you achieve it, you seemingly toss it aside and move on to the next thing? In our previous episode, we explored the powerful brain science behind why this happens. We looked at dopamine; how it shapes your behavior, why it causes you to do certain things and motivates you to achieve new things, but also why it can be dangerous if it becomes too imbalanced. We shared strategies for enhancing and harmonizing with your brain’s dopamine circuitry and much more in our previous interview with Dr. Daniel Z. Lieberman. If you want to finally break free from the cycle of chasing your tail, listen to that episode.

Now, for our interview with Dr. Brizendine.

[0:03:09.8] MB: Today, we have another unique guest on the show, Dr. Louann Brizendine. Dr. Brizendine is the Founder of the Women's Mood and Hormone Clinic and a Neuropsychiatrist at UCSF. She's the author of the New York Times bestselling books, The Female Brain and The Male Brain, and the executive producer of the 2017 movie, The Female Brain. She has served as faculty at both Harvard and UCSF and her work has been featured in the Harvard Business Review, The Guardian and much more. Dr. Brizendine, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:03:40.7] LB: Hi, Matt. Thanks for having me.

[0:03:42.8] MB: Well, we're very excited to have you on the show today and to really explore some of the topics that you've researched and written and spoken about. Before we get into the meat of your work, I'd love to start with something that we were hashing out and just started to have a really interesting conversation about in the pre-show that I think is really relevant for the listeners. This is the idea of science as a decision-making framework. How do you think about how we integrate and use scientific knowledge to make better decisions?

[0:04:11.8] LB: Well, I think one of the things that when you're in the scientific world, you're so cognizant of the fact that everything that we know today – you can ask me a question today, what as of today do I know to be true? I can only tell you what I know to be true today, but I can also tell you about well, we're not quite sure about this and we're not quite sure about that, so we're doing more work on these things, so that maybe five years from now, we'll have some different answers for you.

It's always this issue of hedging your bets, even about what you know to be true today. In science, I think it's confusing sometimes to the public because we are as scientists, always hedging our bets. We also do know three or four things that are lurking in our peripheral vision that may do something to change our theories a bit, or to change what we think is scientifically true a bit.

We're always a scientist holding what we know is true today, but that tomorrow it may not be quite as true. For the public, it feels like well, if something is hedgy, if someone's hedging on, an expert's hedging on it today, what can we really believe? Is science really true, or science not true? I think that's an unfortunate conclusion that sometimes the public makes. As you throw the baby out with the bathwater, you don't focus on something that can be actionable, some really important piece of scientific information that we know to be say 98% true today that you could take in your life and make it actionable and really help yourself.

I encourage your audience to take some of the scientific truths of today for just what they are. They are the truths of today, which doesn't mean that we're not going to have modifications of them in coming years.

[0:05:59.6] MB: What would you say to somebody who thinks to themselves, or even has a friend or family member who says something like, “Well, science gets stuff wrong all the time. I'm just going to ignore it, or I'm just going to go with my gut, or I just don't believe that”?

[0:06:13.6] LB: I would just say that of course, science gets things all wrong all the time and they get many things wrong. A lot of things they of course get right, but the process and the progress of science is constantly questioning, okay, is this thing that we just showed in this experiment, okay, how true is it? Is it true in all situations? Let's do another set of 10 experiments to test that out to see if that theory is true in other situations.

Science is always constantly – the whole goal of science is to test, test, test to make sure that what we think is true really is true, so we are constantly questioning ourselves as scientists, questioning our theories. That is just part of the progress of science, but it is the heart of the scientific process itself.

[0:07:00.1] MB: We're getting out on a tangent a little bit, but to me, somebody like a Carl Sagan is such an intellectual hero of mine, because he really popularized and taught and shared people the power of the scientific method and constantly questioning yourself, constantly testing your assumptions, and how that can be a very useful and impactful way to think about the world and to think about your life.

[0:07:27.2] LB: Absolutely. I think that Carl Sagan is also a hero of mine, because of the way of thinking about science and the scientific method. I think this is why it's important for all of us to have at least a little bit of scientific learning through different parts of school, is so that we understand how scientists think. Scientists never claimed to have the absolute once and for all truth about something. Scientists are always experimenting and trying to move the ball further and further down the field.

[0:07:59.5] MB: Ultimately, that that questioning and that constant testing gets us to stronger answers and moves us towards a more robust understanding of what is really true.

[0:08:11.9] LB: Absolutely. I think, especially I'm so aware of that in my field, which is looking lots at the brain connections and the brain aspects of gender differences in the brain, because the male and female brain are more alike than they are different. After all, we are the same species, right Matt?

[0:08:33.6] MB: I think so. No, I’m just kidding.

[0:08:36.2] LB: Yes. There's so much involved in that. What we do know is that from the moment of conception, when that sperm enters the egg, if the sperm is carrying an X, the baby will be female. If it's carrying a Y, the baby will be male. From the moment of conception onwards, we are gendered, if you will. Well, you're going to be male or female. At eight weeks of fetal life, the male tiny testicles start to put out huge amounts of testosterone that marinates the brain and body of the male fetus changing the brain and the body into male. By the time we're all born, we're either born male or female.

That doesn't mean that we're obviously not in different species, but we are a version of humanity. You end up being a male version of humanity, or a female version of humanity. Most everything works just about the same, but there's a whole bunch of different things in different parts of the circuits the area for sexual pursuit, is about two times larger in the male brain, right? From the get-go. That's made during that fetal life and is then triggered by all of the testosterone surge at age 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. In males during male puberty, that whole system is turned on like a light bulb.

It's important to know that that's completely the natural, normal unfolding of the male sex. That's how you guys are wired. In females, we are developed from that moment of conception until we're born without testosterone. The absence of testosterone lets our circuits develop in the female, or the default mode. The default mode in a way is the female circuitry. Then of course during puberty, we get all the estrogen surges and the progesterone surges and we shape our circuitry, our behavior, our motivations are tilted in the female direction.

These things are built on those principles. Those are the principles that we understand that we know and those haven't changed really from our understanding from the last 50 years. That different aspects of it of course and new elements of how that happens, in some ways in which it can be a bit different happen. The same-sex attraction that happens in – if you're going to be same-sex attracted, that usually happens in puberty for both males and females, that unfolds in that direction.

We don't understand much about how that happens for different brain circuits, but we know that all of the aspects of who we're going to be sexually attracted to happens usually at the unfolding of puberty.

[0:11:30.4] MB: Before we dig into some of the puberty effects on the brain, I want to come back to this fundamental premise and perhaps even explore a little bit, or hear about your journey and your story of how you came to some of these conclusions that the male and female brain are in fact different.

[0:11:48.8] LB: Right. I just laid out how the science goes, how the biology and the unfolding of if you have a Y-chromosome, you're going to develop in the male direction, if you have an X, you're going to develop in the female direction. Now that says something about how your brain circuits and your body and your genitals, how they develop, that's just biology. I mean, that's how the biology unfolds.

I think that what happens is that many people then it's hard to take that into other realms. Like oh, does that mean girls aren't good at math and that boys are better at math? Basically, both brains can do the same kinds of things. There's an equal number of high, very high IQ females, as there are high IQ males. The aspects of intelligence and the aspects of other parts of how the brain functions aren't different. The male and female brain are like I said, they're more alike than different. After all, we are the same species.

The parts that are different have to do with reproduction. Basically, the means of reproduction, or the seeking out a sexual partner to reproduce, those are made in different categories; male and female. That's how we all get started in life. That doesn't necessarily mean that the only thing we are is male or female. I'm a female, who happens to really like science. Matt, you may be a male who – maybe I don't know, maybe you like to – maybe you like costumes, or fabrics, I don't know. I mean, it doesn't – whatever it is that you happen to be interested in, doesn't necessarily only have to do with which sex you are.

[0:13:31.6] MB: Tell me more about these changes, or these differences in the brain and how it impacts male and female behavior, especially around reproductive behavior.

[0:13:44.7] LB: I think one of the things that I like to talk about and I talked a lot about that in my book, The Female Brain, which I think when a lot of guys read that, they say that – especially chapter 2, which is the teen girl brain chapter, really explains a lot about what it's like to be a teen girl in terms of looking at it from the brain perspective.

For example, as the estrogen-progesterone cycles start to happen after a girl goes through puberty, all kinds of things get stimulated in her brain that are – she gets very interested in her appearance. I mean, you probably know this. Both of you guys know some girls in your life that are like, they're really into dressing a certain way, they want their shoes to be a certain way, their hair, their makeup.

I can remember myself at that age, I would read. In those days, it was the Seventeen Magazine, or all the girls’ magazines. I wanted to know what it would be like. I want to look like – I want to be hot. I want to be, have males be attracted to me and what was I going – how did I do that? How did I figure that out?

Girls are trying to figure that out all the time, because part of their biology and their hormonal triggering of the motivation, the behavioral motivation in their brain to look hot and attract the opposite sex, if they're opposite sex attracted, is basically to spend time on their parents; figure out what that's going to be like, how you're going to get guys to be attracted to you is the subtext of that urge and that motivation.

I mean, it's almost like the hormones that trigger your hunger. These things are built-in biologically. We don't think that they are. We think, oh – I mean, I know a lot of guys that I've talked to, they're in the teenage age group. They feel like – and I have a 29-year-old son, so he goes just like, “Mom, I just can't stand all these girls with all this makeup and all the time they spend on this and their hair.” He says, “Why are they doing that for? It doesn't make them look any better.” That's from a guy's perspective.

From the woman's perspective, it's very different. Trying to attract male attention is how the female brain is wired during those stages of a female's life. On the flipside, the male at age 13.5 is the average age of male puberty. We measure that by the age at the first wet dream is 13.5. We know that all the systems are working by then. Girls are about age 12.1 if they're Caucasian, Asian girls are a little later, like about age 13, African-American, Hispanic girls are a little bit younger, more a bit like 11.

Female puberty happens say between somewhere between ages 10 and 13. Their circuits are going to light up in wanting to be spending more time being attractive. The males on the other hand, once their testosterone goes up from about 15 or 20 up to a level of 300-400. Of course, by the time you're about 19-years-old, your testosterone level can be up to the level of 800 to a 1,000. It really is a very rapid curve straight up during ages 13, 14, 15.

That turns on all of these circuits that I call that area for sexual pursuit. Guys are like, they're tracking things, every pair of breasts that walk by catches their attention, all kinds of sexual interest all over the map for boys. Their thoughts of sex come rapid-fire. Anything can make them think of sex. That's a teenage boy’s motivation, interest in their biology is all hooked into that as it were. That's how the hormones and biology are motivating their behavior.

I mean, it's not the only thing they're doing. It's not that they are not going to do their homework, or they're not going to practice whatever sport they're doing, but they are going to have this other thing. It's almost like having – you walk into a sports bar and the TV is always on in the background. It's this whole area for sexual pursuit is always on in the background after a male goes through puberty. That's just how you’re normally naturally wired.

I think that it's interesting. When females – when girls find that out, you know that that's what's going on in the male brain, they're quite shocked actually. I think when guys figure out what's going on in the female brain at their stage, it's also very interesting, especially when you have your first girlfriend and you make it into the areas of the other area I study which I study PMS and kinds of the mood issues of the menstrual cycle is another one of my areas of expertise.

There's a whole lot of interest, I think in young males trying to figure out what that's about since the female brain and their hormones changes up to 25% a month, certain areas can go through a lot of hormonal structural changes.

[0:18:57.7] MB: During this onset of puberty, these hormone levels are spiking to, forgive me for probably botching the numbers, but I mean, it's 10X, 20X, 50X, huge spikes, right, for both men and women of different hormones.

[0:19:12.4] LB: Yeah. I have a graph on page 33 of my book, called the male brain, that takes the male from age about 11-years-old to 15. Yes, that curve goes straight up, like times 25. It's just a 25-fold increase in testosterone levels. The testosterone, it's going to be making male beards grow, hair grow, makes your Adam's apple grow larger, your voice is going to change and get deeper, penis gets larger, testicles get larger, all the male sexual characteristics get larger; your muscle mass starts to change a lot, because testosterone is a huge growth factor for muscle. Males are just turning into the male body that we all know. That's happening at that age.

[0:20:02.1] MB: How did your research change, or shape your perceptions on whether or not, or which gender roles are socially constructed and which are more biologically skewed?

[0:20:14.4] LB: That's a great question, because that gets us into to the taking it out somewhat of the biology, but not as much as you might think, but putting it into. How much is the construction of which gender we are happen by the way we’re raised, or the way culture raised us? Like the phrase, boys don't cry, right? They're like, man up. Boys don't cry. When you say that to a four-year-old who's just falling down on the soccer field and rip the skin off his knee, that is a cultural overlay on to telling that little boy what's acceptable and what's not acceptable based on his gender.

Or just maybe allowing, encouraging little girls, or comforting little girls more when they cry, let's say. The meaningfulness of those kinds of behaviors towards children based on which sex they are don't go unnoticed. We all will respond to what we're encouraged, or discouraged from doing. You look at three and four-year-old boys in preschools, a woman named Eleanor Maccabee down at Stanford worked for about 40 years in the preschool setting, taking detailed research of all the behaviors of the boys and girls who played in their play groups.

Little boys would very quickly start to – they would sit down with the little girls maybe in play, what's called this role play type of thing, where the little girls say, “Okay, you be the daddy and I'll be the mommy, or you'll be the doctor and I'll be the patient.” Little boys will sit and go through maybe one turn or two of that, and then they're up and wanting to run and do stuff with the other like, “Come on guys. Let's go get them.” They want to fight the enemy.

These behavioral modalities, about 90% of little girls are more interested in what's called relationship play at that age, than little boys are. Little boys are much more interested in fighting the enemy and they get more interested in explosions and basically, having much what's called rough-and-tumble play. No one really taught them how to do this, it's been discovered, but this is just part of the way boys tend to be wired, or at least 90% of them. They are then culturally reinforced for that. Or maybe the 10% of little girls who prefer the rough-and-tumble play, they may be discouraged a bit from that.

I think the way things have changed in the last 25 years is basically having more allowances for just having the individual child develop along whatever path they choose, rather than trying to impose, or the cultural mandates on them of how a little girl versus a little boy is supposed to behave. That being said, those things that are culturally mandated either by your family, or by your school, or by your peers, or by your peers’ families, whatever the source of it is, don't go unnoticed. We start to craft who we are in terms of our personhood based on our gender by these experiences we have that will either provide us an outlet to be encouraged or discouraged from certain behaviors that are considered gender specific.

[0:23:29.1] MB: You made a comment and this might be pulling from the depths, and forgive me if this is out of left field. You made a comment in your Google Talk, which was some time ago. You said that nature versus nurture is dead, or something around that. I was curious. That particular line really stuck out to me and I wanted to know what you meant by that. I think it might fit into the context what we're talking about now. I'd love to hear you elaborate on it.

[0:23:53.6] LB: Exactly. I mean, the old theory was that everything was nurture and not very much was nature, right? That everything, that gender was completely socially constructed and that everything was based on nurture, whether you became a boy or a girl. Of course, the biology that I just told you about is very clear and that is nature.

The other piece that we also know is that all of the things that are the nurturing things we talked about, or the environment, or the cultural mandates about gender, those start to act also upon the brain. You're learning and behavior all start – if you're punished for crying as a little boy, then that becomes part of your inhibitory brain circuits. Your brain circuits start to shut down that behavior, shut down the – whenever you want to start to cry, you'll just start to shut that down. That is not just only a conscious decision, but your actual brain circuits start to develop in such a way that they will shut those behaviors down.

I mean, you can watch how – if you train dogs, right? You train animals and you basically have them rewarded or punished for doing certain things. It starts to become part of their brain circuit. That's why how you're nurtured, or how your culture mandates certain things, it be interwoven into the brain circuits, so that becomes nature. Nature and nurture are really not different. They are the same thing. That's why the nature-nurture dichotomy is dead.

[0:25:30.1] MB: Pavlovian conditioning is such a powerful mental model. It's really interesting to hear how it can play into childhood development and even gender roles to some degree as well.

[0:25:40.1] LB: Absolutely. I mean, part of that it's true for all of us. That's why really trying to enhance each individual's – to maximize each of our own creative and intellectual potential is what I think as a society, we are trying to work towards with all children. That would be certainly the ideal to work towards.

[0:26:01.8] MB: That's another point that you brought up earlier that I think is worth rehashing and bringing up is this idea that a lot of these behavioral patterns are more like a standard distribution, that have a lot of overlap with some differences. Each individual may be on one side of the other distribution and they may exhibit a lot of tendencies that may not, maybe atypical or different, but every individual was totally unique in the way that they interact with the world and their preferences, behaviors and that thing.

[0:26:32.3] LB: Exactly. I think in pie charts sometimes, because it's helpful to – The pie chart of me, who I am, when I was second, third grade, I really enjoyed – I would say I was more of a tomboy. That meant that I liked to go with the neighborhood boys next door and go out and hunt for lizards and snakes. I mean, I was into the reptiles. That was not very girly. I'm just not. I also had my dolls. I also had toys and I definitely liked fashion and I liked fabrics and liked designing clothes for my dolls.

Those were all parts of me and who I was. I always went – I was fishing with my dad from the time I was about three or four. I could put a hook into a fish. I could gaff a fish and unhook him, from the time I was pretty young. Those are things that were both because of my family of origin, but also because nobody told me I couldn't go hunt for lizards with the boys in the neighborhood, right? Those are parts of me that were maybe not – some of them might have been supposedly in the other category of being more boy things.

I think that everybody has – you may fit right in the median on some of your tendencies and you may fit two standard deviations off in other areas, which is that's not – that doesn't mean there’s anything's wrong with you. It's just how you as an individual and your particular genetics are wired.

[0:28:06.1] MB: This might be getting a little bit off-topic, but I'm curious, how have you dealt with people who would characterize your research as furthering gender biases?

[0:28:16.1] LB: Well, I can understand that if you just take it on a very simplistic superficial basis and not having read anything I wrote. I mean, if you just think it like, “Oh, someone talks about the male and female brain. That's just going to reinforce gender stereotypes and blah, blah, blah.” I can certainly understand it from that very superficial perspective.

On the other hand, I talk about – the stuff I talk about is just basic science of hormones, behavior and biological development. I think stereotypes are very dangerous actually. Some of the studies where they will read some girls that are maybe junior high, they'll read them a paragraph about how girls can't do math and all this stuff. Then they'll take another and then give them a test. Then they'll take another group of girls and tell them how girls are good at this and good at other things and can be good – Those girls, maybe they all have the same IQ and the girls who are told that girls aren't good at math will do badly on, or do worse on the test than the other girls.

That's one of those – I think a profound study that shows the negative aspects of stereotypes, of gender stereotypes. I think we all have to guard against gender stereotypes, racial stereotypes. All kinds of stereotypes are just – they're very offensive to the individual that you're trying to deal with, because that person, you have no idea who that person is, where they came from, what their background is, what their talent sets are. The reason brains like to deal with stereotypes, it's an ability to have shorthand. Our brain likes to be able to make up shorthand for something, so that we don't have to think too hard, right?

Every individual that you run across in your life, ideally you would take them as being someone you would just like to learn who they are about, what they're about, what their background is and you don't come to them with any stereotype. You just want to let them flower the way they are. That's my comment on stereotypes. I think all of them are bad.

[0:30:21.8] MB: I want to change gears radically and come back to something else you've written about, which is very relevant for me personally having a six-month-old, daughter which is daddy brain. Tell me a little bit about that.

[0:30:36.7] LB: I think that if you start with the phrase human brain, human parenting brain, the parent brain. I think that a lot of women, because we are the ones who carry the baby, birth the baby, breastfeed the baby, right? That's what's going on in your household right now. Fathers are really incredibly, even biologically involved. They basically have found that in the first – within the first two or three months of your partner's pregnancy, if you're living together in the same house, I think this may or may not be true if someone's spouse is away, say in Iraq or something.

If you're living with that person and you're the father of that child and your partner, your wife is pregnant, you start to have hormonal changes that you may or may not be aware of. I mean, you heard of couvade syndrome, or couvade syndrome, C-O-U-V-A-D-E. It's where the male gets basically the same appetite as the female and often gains up to 25 pounds during her pregnancy, because you're also eating for two, but it's thought to be pheromonal/hormonal. Male’s testosterone level drops about 20% to 30%. Your other hormone, which is called prolactin, P-R-O-L-A-C-T-I-N, prolactin. It means actually pro-lactation. It's the hormone that causes milk in the breasts.

Males also have it. We don't really know what it's doing in the male brain, or in the daddy brain, but it increases by 20% or 30% during the whole gestation of the – then after birth. Right at about six months, yours is starting to go back to your pre-levels. During that first six months of the baby's life, if you're living with that child, your testosterone level is still a bit low and your prolactin level is very high.

The thinking is that it's really triggering the male brain, the daddy brain to become protective and basically, to become parent. You've probably seen those studies where they measure the ability of the female brain to hear an infant crying. If the female has had babies before, if she's already had children versus someone who hasn't, she hears the babies, infants cry a lot more. It's a lot louder, it's a lot she wakes her up more, than a female who's never had children. If you take a male who's never had children, he hardly hears the crying at all.

You take a dad, once you've had the experience as well, it's not quite as robust or as for a female brain in terms of hearing an infant cry, but once you've been a dad, your ability to hear infants cry based on MRIs studies of crying infants, that whole auditory circuit in your brain just lights up a Christmas tree when you hear babies cry. Beforehand, before you ever became a dad, it was – it’s flat-lined in your auditory circuits for hearing the baby cry. I think that's very interesting to watch the actual formation of the daddy brain.

[0:33:41.0] MB: I've definitely experienced that. I used to be able to sleep through a hurricane and now I'm like a ninja. I can hear my daughter crying from half of building away. I'm like, “What was that? Was that a cry?”

[0:33:51.9] LB: You see. There you go. You’re proof positive, Matt. Isn't it amazing though that you watched the changes you've gone through and just the – I don't know if you've just felt like that. You're in awe. You're a totally different person.

[0:34:05.2] MB: You said after about six months, the testosterone levels start to revert back to normal, is that correct?

[0:34:11.2] LB: Yes, yes. You should be right on the threshold.

[0:34:16.2] MB: Very exciting.

[0:34:19.4] LB: I don't know that. There's all kinds of theories about why that happens, whatever. The comments also often made well, that keeps him – he's not going to be out chasing skirts. He should be home, trying to build the nest for his child. That's the way mother nature made it, so that you'll stay close to the nest and be set up to be more nurturing and protective of your child. That all makes sense. Obviously, not every male does that, but about 90% of men have this phenomenon happened to them.

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[0:36:46.1] MB: Another topic that you've talked a little bit about and I'm very curious to dig into is how video games affect the male brain.

[0:36:55.0] LB: Well, that's these days a very, very big question. Things are also related to the amount of minutes or hours you do this thing, right? If you're playing a video game over and over and over again, I know that the major games that guys like to play are these single shooter games, right? The single shooter games are the best – the billion-dollar industry. That repetitive play, depending on how many hours a day you do it, etc., it basically can crowd out other things.

The effect of the video games on the male brain are it gives guys great pleasure in doing that, because they love the mastery that comes from being able to have the fine motor skills and also to understand the aspects of the game and to actually be able to win and to go up levels, all that. It's a very gratifying world to live in. I think, the only thing that – especially we look at in teen boys is that the danger becomes that that is the world they live in. That their daily diet of video games, versus other things that you need to be learning to do, and say your social world, or even in physical activity world, get downplayed a bit when you're doing too many hours of that.

[0:38:13.5] MB: I want to look at some of the conclusions or lessons that we can draw from your research, whether that's communication strategies, or behavior changes, how do you think about – for somebody who's listening to this episode, how can we start to apply some of these lessons around the different – the male brain and the female brain to shape our behavior more effectively?

[0:38:37.9] LB: Well, I think that it's a generalizable thing that comes out of it, which is basically that the other person in front of you is different than you are. That really comes as a big aha moment for many of us, because we like to think that other people are just like us, or that their motivations and the way they will make a decision about something that's presented to them would be the same that we would do.

I think that just on a very basic foundation is that to know that the female’s motivation, driven to some extent by the hormonal fluctuations that are totally normal and appropriate are maybe driving her, or urging her to do things that are different than would be driving you as an adult male with your high testosterone levels to do.

I think that the actionable thing from this research is that your level of understanding of being able to put yourself in the other person's shoes based on something that you've learned from this science is really, really helpful in your ability to deal with the opposite sex.

[0:39:49.7] MB: I'd love to have a specific example of that, if you have one.

[0:39:53.6] LB: Okay. Because I study premenstrual syndrome, or PMS, which is that usually for about 80% of females, about three or four days, or even that one or two days right before onset of your menstrual period is a time when your progesterone level has been very, very high and all of a sudden, it crashes down into the pits by whatever, 10, 20-fold. Progesterone acts in the brain almost like valium. It makes you feel pretty calm. Then all of a sudden when it drops, it makes you feel almost in valium withdrawal, which means very irritable, very emotional, easily triggered.

Different females, 20% don't have any of this. About 80% will say, “Oh, they will become either irritable, or pushing you away,” or we call it in my clinic the crying over dog food commercials sign. Bursting into tears over something that ordinarily wouldn't make you cry. If you take your girlfriend to the movie that's a sad movie, but maybe not that sad, she might on that day before her period starts to cry easily over things. Or you may say something to her that was a little bit insensitive, but maybe not all that insensitive. She may just either fly off the handle in an angry rage at you, or burst into tears, or to feel rejected by you and like you don't love her, or all of – It's an emotional overreaction that can actually happen very, very easily in that particular hormonal state.

I think that for guys to realize that and that there's nothing you can't – don't you dare say, “Oh, wait. Honey, is at that time of the month?” We don't appreciate that, because that just makes it worse. I think being on the alert about that particular vulnerability that's not – it's not about who she is. It's not who she is the whole month, but it may be just a vulnerability on that single day before her period starts.

Just to also know that if she blows up at you, it's not – if it's a fight that you just had that there's something need to be resolved, I tell the guy when they come to my office as a couple, I'll have him write down on a sticky or something what the issue was, put it in a drawer. Three or four days later, if it's something important to discuss, bring it up again when you're both in your best state.

[0:42:24.0] MB: Another example that I've heard you share is and forgive me if I’m misphrasing, or mischaracterizing, the idea of how males will often focus on solution-seeking, instead of validating feelings.

[0:42:37.7] LB: Oh, boy. That's a big one. Because when I was writing The Male Brain, my husband is a neuroscientist too, but he's a guy's guy, what can I say? I wrote this little yellow sticky for him on his computer that said – it just had the words, “Honey, I know how you feel, period.” Whenever I would come home with something that was going on at the clinic, or something at the university, or somebody did this or that and I was – I would come home and be upset about it and telling them about it, he used to just turn to me and say, “Honey, you know what you should do, you should do blah.” He was immediately telling me how to fix it, right?

He had the solution handed to me. That is not what I wanted actually. I needed to hear him say, to empathize with them to say, “Honey, I know how you feel. He would now turn and read that little yellow sticky off his computer.” I was surprised, because it was just a little game we had played. It was not really meant to – I mean, I didn't realize it would have that effect it had on me. When he said that to me, “Oh, my God.” All of my nervous system just relaxed and I was actually then more open to hearing what he had to say to try to fix it.

Before when he immediately would jump into like, “You know what you should do. Blah, blah, blah, you should do this, or you should – ” I felt he hadn't really heard me. He hadn't gotten on my wavelength about how I felt about it. That seem to be a very common complaint and big difference between male and female approaches to emotional problem-solving.

[0:44:13.4] MB: That was one that definitely resonated with me. I mean, longtime listeners of the show will probably know this as well, but I'm a huge proponent of rationality and cold rational thinking and we were talking earlier about Carl Sagan and the scientific process and all this. When I encounter a problem, my state is always, “All right, how can we rationally break this down and solve it?” The other thing that I've learned over the course of doing this show and lots of interviews with tons of scientists and psychologists and people who talk about emotional intelligence is that there's a whole other side of interaction that if you're ignoring the emotional component, you're missing a huge piece of the ballgame.

[0:44:50.5] LB: Oh, absolutely. I think that they try and teach this in businesses. They try and teach it in business school and stuff now to some degrees. If you are somehow missing the emotional component of whatever is going on in the room, or going on with that person, or that client, or that – or your partner, or your girlfriend, or your boyfriend, if you’re missing the emotional component, then you're not going to get buy-in from them at all about, because they don't think you get it. If you're not able to express that you understand the emotional component of where they're at, then whatever you're trying to negotiate is really going to fall flat.

[0:45:29.2] MB: What would be one action item, or concrete step piece of homework that you would give to somebody listening to this episode, to concretely apply some of the ideas and themes that we've talked about today?

[0:45:42.8] LB: Well, I think guys might do well to take a little yellow sticky that says, “Honey, I know how you feel.” Put it on your computer, or wherever it is you're usually in the house when she comes home and just try it out. Do a little experiment. Do a little scientific experiment and see how that works. When she comes home, or she's whatever, or she’s telling you, “God, you know what my sister did? Or do you know what my mother or my father –” Usually family stuff, right?

Did this today, whatever and you're listening to it and you can hear how upset she is, then you just say, “Honey, I know how you feel.” Then just pause after that last word for a moment. That would be something that's an actionable experiment to try, because I do agree that males tend to be – they like the process of rational decision-making so much that they get overly – that's the part that they like the best and they take some bad experiences sometimes to learn the other, so that would be good.

I think just to understand that maybe the other person – I mean, for women, it's very important to realize also that the male testosterone levels are always about 10 times what yours are. That makes sexual interest and sexual drive on the male's part on average, if you're the same age as your partner, about three times more in the male than the female. Obviously, that's not always true, but it tends to be on average what studies for 50 years have found.

I think, just to understand that that's not because they don't find you attractive, that's not because they're not sexually interesting, that's not because they don't love you that they may not be as sexually interested all the time as you are. Some of this is hormonal stuff that's just the way biologically we are built. It's not anybody's fault, or it's not anybody's – it's not a behavior to – don't blame somebody's behavior on them, until you understand what might be the underlying biological principle of how they're dealing with the situation.

[0:47:54.2] MB: For listeners who want to find you and your work online, what's the best place for them to do that?

[0:48:00.0] LB: Well, they can – if they want to check out on Amazon, The Female Brain, there's both the book and the movie. The movie is out on streaming now. The books are easily available in Amazon, The Female Brain. For guys in your age group, guys that are in their late teens up to about age 40, reading chapter 2 of The Female Brain, which does talk about all the hormones and all of that might be a good place for them to start. Just read that. I guess, it's about a 16-page chapter. It's very easy to read.

For females that are in this age group, they might want to read that chapter too, the teen boy brain. This talks about the hormones in the male brain, in the male brain which you can also find The Male Brain book on Amazon. That's what I would suggest. When the new book comes out, I'm just working on a new book that's going to be about all of it – basically, healthy aging and the brain. Healthy hormones and aging of the brain. We may talk about that in the future, but that one is due to come out January of 2020.

[0:49:04.5] MB: Well, Dr. Brizendine, thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing all your research and knowledge. I think we definitely want to have you come back on and dig into the science of healthy brain aging as well, down the road.

[0:49:17.2] LB: Excellent. Thanks for having me, Matt. I really appreciated the opportunity to talk with your audience.

[0:49:23.7] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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Thanks again, and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.

May 02, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making, Influence & Communication
Gretchen Rubin-02.png

How You Can Boost Your Energy, Focus & Happiness In 5 Minutes or Less with Gretchen Rubin

March 28, 2019 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making, Focus & Productivity

In this episode we discuss how to boost your energy, focus, and happiness in 5 minutes or less using a dead simple strategy anyone can apply right away. We explore the power of self knowledge and why it’s one of the cornerstones of success in any area of life, and we uncover several powerfully uncomfortable questions we can ask ourselves to be happier, healthier and more productive with our guest Gretchen Rubin.

Gretchen Rubin is the author of the New York Times bestsellers, Better Than Before, The Happiness Project, Happier at Home, and The Four Tendencies and her latest book is Outer Order Inner Calm. She’s appeared on TV outlets such as the Today show, Oprah’s Super Soul Sunday Morning, and more. She’s also appeared in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and many more!

  • I finally cleaned out my fridge and now I know I can switch careers.

  • When we get control of the stuff of our lives we often see big results

  • Dealing with the little challenges of outer order give us the power to handle huge challenges

  • American adults spend 55 minutes a day looking for misplaced items

  • Focusing on order can yield huge benefits VERY QUICKLY with simple focus.

  • Cleaning up is something so simple, you will feel great, and it will

  • The “one-minute rule” - if you can do it in less than a minute, do it without delay

  • How to keep the scum of clutter on the surface of life go away

  • It’s much easier to keep up than to catch up

  • So easily accessible - anyone can do this in five minutes to create a massive shift in their energy, focus, and calm

  • Figure out WHAT YOU NEED to do your best work and then GET IT - create the environment in which you can thrive

  • There isn’t ONE BEST WAY to set up your environment to thrive.

  • Self knowledge is the most powerful and fundamental kind of knowledge you can create.

  • One of the great challenges of our lives is really trying to grapple with - what is the truth about ME?

  • Ask yourself uncomfortable questions.

    • Whom do you envy?

    • It’s a very revealing thing. It shows you that they have something that you wish for yourself.

    • Whose job or life gives you a TON of envy? There’s information there about what you want to do.

  • Most useful things involve discomfort - especially when it comes to self knowledge.

  • When trying to decide - should I ask this of myself or not?

    • Choose the BIGGER LIFE - what to YOU will create a BIGGER life?

  • Sometimes it’s worth the insecurity and frustration and anxiety if you’re pursuing what - to you- represents a bigger life. Is it worth the time? The bandwidth?

  • All reality is one interconnected mess.

  • That’s why it’s so important to have a multi-disciplinary perspective.

  • There’s a HUGE difference between “I’m right” and “This is what’s true for me."

  • In a fight over dirty dishes at the office - that’s the tip of a giant iceberg of psychology that shapes hundreds of complex and nuanced interactions

  • There are so many ways to achieve your goals, experiment and try different methods

  • “Don’t break the chain.” Try to keep a chain of successes.

  • Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good

  • Homework: How do you decide what to get rid of? Do you need it, do you use it, do you love it? Don’t get organized, get rid of things first.

  • Homework: The one minute rule - anything you can do in under a minute, do it without delay.

  • It’s not so much WHAT should you do, but rather how can you get yourself to STICK to what you want to do? Experimentation is crucial.

  • Homework: Ask yourself - how have you succeeded in the past? Ask yourself what you learned from that and model that behavior.

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Want To Dig In More?! - Here’s The Show Notes, Links, & Research

General

  • Gretchen’s Website

  • Gretchen’s Wiki Page

  • Gretchen’s LinkedIn

Media

  • [Book Site] Outer Order Inner Calm

  • [Article] Forbes - “NYT Bestselling Author Gretchen Rubin Shares Her Best Happiness Advice” by Zack Friedman

  • [Article] MIndBodyGreen - “Why The World's Leading Happiness Expert Doesn't Want You To Be A Minimalist” By Emma Loewe

  • [Article] Thrive Global - “On Outer Order, Inner Calm: An Interview with Gretchen Rubin” By Laura Cococcia

  • Gretchen Rubin author directory on Forbes, INC, Medium

    • Carl Jung's Five Key Elements to Happiness

    • Why You Need to 'Know Your Zone' to Find Happiness

    • 30 Tips I Use to Make Myself Happier, Right Now.

  • [Article] Daily Stoic - Outer Order, Inner Calm: An Interview With Bestselling Author Gretchen Rubin

  • [Article] CBS This Morning - Make room for happiness: Gretchen Rubin on how to combat loneliness

  • [Podcast] Robert Glazer - GRETCHEN RUBIN ON THE FOUR TENDENCIES AND THE SECRET TO HAPPINESS

  • [Podcast] The Ultimate Health Podcast - 037: Gretchen Rubin – The Foundation For Happiness | Simplicity vs. Abundance Lovers | The One Minute Rule

  • [Podcast] The Tim Ferris Show - #290: Gretchen Rubin — Experiments in Happiness and Creativity

  • [Podcast] Art of Charm - Gretchen Rubin | Mastering Happiness (Episode 388)

  • [Podcast] Jordan Harbinger - 18: Gretchen Rubin | Four Tendencies: The Framework for a Better Life

  • [Podcast] The Good Life Project - Gretchen Rubin: How to Build Habits That Change Lives

Videos

  • Gretchen’s Youtube Channel

  • Outer Order, Inner Calm by Gretchen Rubin [Book Trailer] (30 seconds)

  • The Four Tendencies by Gretchen Rubin - Book Trailer (30 seconds)

  • “Happier at Home" Book Trailer (1 min, 2nd most viewed video on her channel)

  • The Years Are Short

  • Gretchen Rubin: "Better than Before" | Talks at Google (2015)

    • Gretchen Rubin: "Happier at Home" | Talks at Google (2012)

    • Gretchen Rubin | Talks at Google (2010)

  • TEDxNewHaven - Gretchen Rubin - Five Half-Truths About Happiness

  • Sophia Colombo - The Happiness Project by Gretchen Rubin | Animated Book Review

  • Sage Grayson - Book Review: The Four Tendencies by Gretchen Rubin

  • Big Think - Chores cause conflict. Try managing them like this instead. | Gretchen Rubin

    • 6 ways to let go of pointless possessions | Gretchen Rubin

  • 99U - Gretchen Rubin: The 4 Ways to Successfully Adopt New Habits

  • Gretchen Rubin Shares 8 Personal Rules of Happiness | SuperSoul Sunday | Oprah Winfrey Network

  • Lifehacker - Gretchen Rubin Shares Her Secrets to Good Habits and Happiness

Books

  • [Book] Outer Order, Inner Calm: Declutter and Organize to Make More Room for Happiness  by Gretchen Rubin

  • [Book] The Happiness Project, Tenth Anniversary Edition: Or, Why I Spent a Year Trying to Sing in the Morning, Clean My Closets, Fight Right, Read Aristotle, and Generally Have More Fun  by Gretchen Rubin

  • [Book] The Four Tendencies: The Indispensable Personality Profiles That Reveal How to Make Your Life Better (and Other People's Lives Better, Too)  by Gretchen Rubin

  • [Book] Better Than Before: What I Learned About Making and Breaking Habits--to Sleep More, Quit Sugar, Procrastinate Less, and Generally Build a Happier Life  by Gretchen Rubin

  • [Book] Happier at Home: Kiss More, Jump More, Abandon Self-Control, and My Other Experiments in Everyday Life  by Gretchen Rubin

  • [Book] Daily Rituals: How Artists Work by Mason Currey

  • [Book] Internal Time: Chronotypes, Social Jet Lag, and Why You're So Tired by Till Roenneberg

  • [Book] Forty Ways to Look at Winston Churchill: A Brief Account of a Long Life  by Gretchen Rubin

  • [Book] Power Money Fame Sex: A User's Guide  by Gretchen Rubin

  • [Book] Forty Ways to Look at JFK  by Gretchen Rubin

  • [Amazon Author Page] Gary Taubes

  • [Amazon Author Page] Gretchen Rubin

Misc

  • [SoS Episode Guide] Decision Making

  • [SoS Episode] The Epic Mental Framework You Need To Master Any Skill and Defeat Fear and Uncertainty with Josh Kaufman

  • [SoS Episode] How To Stop Living Your Life On Autopilot, Take Control, and Build a Toolbox of Mental Models to Understand Reality with Farnam Street’s Shane Parrish

  • [SoS Episode] The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing with Daniel Pink

  • [SoS Episode] These Habits Will Help You Crush Procrastination & Overwhelm with James Clear

Episode Transcript

[00:00:04.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success; the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than three million downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries.

In this episode, we discuss how to boost your energy, focus and happiness in five minutes or less using a dead-simple strategy that anyone can apply right now. We explore the power of self-knowledge and why it’s one of the cornerstones of success in any area of life. We uncover several powerfully uncomfortable questions that you can ask yourself to be happier, healthier and more productive with our guest, Gretchen Rubin.

I’m going to tell you why you’ve been missing out on some incredibly cool stuff if you haven’t signed up for our e-mail list yet. All you have to do to sign up is to go to successpodcast.com and sign up right on the home page.

On top of tons subscriber-only content, exclusive access and live Q&As with previous guests, monthly giveaways and much more, I also created an epic free video course just for you. It's called How to Create Time for What Matters Most Even When You're Really Busy. E-mail subscribers have been raving about this guide.

You can get all of that and much more by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the home page, or by texting the word smarter to the number 44-222 on your phone. If you like what I do on Science of Success, my e-mail list is the number one way to engage with me and go deeper on what I discuss on the show, including free guides, actionable takeaways, exclusive content and much, much more.

Sign up for my e-mail list today by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the home page, or if you're on the go, if you're on your phone right now, it's even easier. Just text the word “smarter”, that's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44-222. I can't wait to show you all the exciting things you'll get when you sign up and join the e-mail list.

In our previous episode, we discussed why it's so important to study and understand psychology if you want to master any aspect of life. We looked at the evolutionary science behind how your brain can often play tricks on you. We shared a simple and impactful model from psychology for dealing with stressful and tough situations and we discussed the dangerous illusion of the quest for certainty and how you should actively embrace taking risks in your life with our guest, Dr. Daniel Crosby. If you want to stop your brain from playing tricks on you, listen to our previous episode.

Now, for our interview with Gretchen.

[0:03:14.5] MB: Today, we have another exciting guest on the show, Gretchen Rubin. Gretchen is the author of the New York Times best-seller’s Better Than Before, The Happiness Project, Happier at Home and The Four Tendencies. Her latest book is Outer Order, Inner Calm. She’s appeared on TV outlets such as The Today Show, Oprah's Super Soul Sunday Morning and more. She's also appeared in the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and many other outlets.

Gretchen, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:03:42.3] GR: I'm so happy to be talking to you today. Well, we're very excited to have you on the show today and dig into this topic, because I think it's really fascinating. To start out, you've done a tremendous amount of work, tremendous amount of research. There's a million things we could dig into in this conversation, but the topic that has captured your attention recently is this idea of order. I wanted to begin with why has order become something and what – maybe let's start with what is order and why has it become for somebody who spent so much time studying happiness and habits and behaviors, why is order come to the forefront for you?

[0:04:16.7] GR: Well, it's interesting. I have been writing about happiness and good habits and human nature for a long time. Something that has surprised me is there's a disproportionate charge around the subject of outer order. I mean, if I would ask people if they make their bed, an audience would laugh and start chattering and people – a friend I said, “I finally cleaned up my fridge and now I know I can switch careers.” I was like, “I know how that feels.”

It doesn't really make sense, because you think well, in the context of a happy, productive life, something like a crowded coat closet, or a messy desk is trivial. Yet over and over, people reported to me and I certainly feel this way myself that when we get control over the stuff in our lives, we often feel more in control over our lives generally. If it's an illusion, it's a helpful illusion.

It's not just a sense of calm, but there's also a sense of focus, a sense of energy, even a sense of possibility. There’s something about dealing with these little challenges of creating outer order that makes us feel more able to tackle big challenges. I just always thought it seemed disproportionate. Why was everybody getting such a bang for their buck in this area? I decided, instead of writing about something huge like habits, I want to go shine a spotlight on something small, but that seems to be punching above its weight in terms of value, which is creating outer order.

[0:05:41.3] MB: That's such a great approach. I love the 80/20 perspective on what's something simple, very easy to do and yet, has an outsized approach in terms of shaping the outcomes in our lives.

[0:05:54.0] GR: Well, research shows that American adults spend about 55 minutes a day looking for misplaced items. Imagine what you could do with 55 minutes a day? One of the clearest benefits of outer order is that it's easier to find things. It's easier to put things away. You don't buy duplicates of something because you can't find – you have to buy a new tape measure, because you can't find the tape measure that you know you have somewhere.

Yeah. I mean, it really can yield very big benefits and very quickly. Yeah, there's a lot of instant gratification to it. It's not things that are more abstract, or that have a longer timeline. This is something, you can feel better like sent, you can get this boost quick.

[0:06:37.5] MB: That's been my own experience as well. I sometimes will almost – whenever I have a project to clean something up, or whether it's straighten up my desk, or throw things out, or clean up an old closet or drawer that's been full of junk, I sometimes actually save those activities and say, “All right, when I'm going to need a big productivity boost, I know that I need to go clean out this drawer.” Then I spend 15 minutes doing that and then I'm get in the flow, get in the zone and then I go crush out a bunch of productivity for the next couple hours.” It's amazing. I've had definitely had that personal experience of getting that boost from some very simple act of creating order in your environment.

[0:07:12.8] GR: I do exactly the same thing. I actually begged my friends to let me come over and help them clear their clutter, because it's like, you get all that exhilaration, but none of the emotional demand that comes from when it's your own things. I get a huge charge from it. I agree, I will do the same thing. Sometimes it really can be a way to get yourself that energy if you know that you need a little bit of it.

[0:07:35.3] MB: It's funny, even just talking about this, I'm looking around stuff in my office and have the urge to go get up and rip some stuff off the walls and clean up and throw some things away. I'm having to fight that tendency just to stay focused on the interview.

[0:07:47.8] GR: Well, that was my hope for the book. The book is written in this way where it's lots of ideas written in these very bite-sized pieces, because I wanted something that you just be so easily accessible. I was like, this is a book Outer Order, Inner Calm, this has to be extremely streamlined. Also it's a psych up book. It's a book that's meant to get you – you get a third of the way through it and then you throw it over your shoulder and go running to the medicine cabinet, or you go running to your filing cabinet, because you're like, “Oh, my gosh. I can't wait anymore. I have to start clearing clutter.”

After I finished recording the audiobook, the next day my director e-mailed me a before-and-after of her office, because she got so fired up from talking about it that then she spent the rest of the day cleaning at her office. It's really my hope that this is just to get you full of ideas and the sense of possibility to like, this is going to feel great. Let me go do this right now. I'm going to feel great and it's going to be really payoff for me in the future in terms of my focus and my energy and my call.

[0:08:45.5] MB: I love the focus on keeping it just so simple and so easy and so actionable. Anybody listening right now can in five minutes, create a change in their state and as you said, their energy and their focus simply by cleaning something up.

[0:09:03.0] GR: Well, one of the most popular ideas that I talk about is the one-minute rule. This is the idea that anything that you can do in less than a minute, you do without delay. If you can hang up your coat instead of tossing it over a chair, if you can print out a document and put it in the correct folder, anything you can do in less than a minute, just go ahead and do it. This means that you don't have to set aside any time. Some people are so busy they're like, “I don't have the time. If I did have the time, that's not how I would spend the time.”

This is something you just do as part of your ordinary day. Yet very quickly, if you really follow this rule, that scum of clutter on the surface of life goes away. That just makes everything much easier. Also, it's easier to keep up than to catch up. One discouraging thing that happens when people create outer order is they’ll clean out their office. They'll do some big sprints. Then two weeks later, it's like nothing ever changed.

Part of it is the challenge of establishing habits and practices, so that just as part of your ordinary day, you can maintain, so that you can keep up once you have caught up to keep it in that space so that you don't feel you constantly have to dig your way out again. Because that's discouraging and it feels like a waste of time. Pretty soon, it starts to feel pointless and so you never do it at all. Then you just get surrounded by junk and that's not fun.

[0:10:19.3] MB: I've definitely have the personal experience of cleaning something, even something small up and feeling almost a surge of energy and focus. I think many listeners are probably had that experience as well. We've talked a little bit about that. Tell me a little bit more around is there science behind why this happens, or what is the research of the data say around why this is such a powerful phenomenon?

[0:10:41.3] GR: The research in this area is very interesting and spotty. It seems like what people are mostly trying to do is to find what is the best way? What is the environment that makes people most creative? Are people more creative in a messy place, or in a clean place? To me, this is completely misguided, because people are so different and what works for one person doesn't work for another.

You could say on balance, 51% of people are better off doing blah, blah. That doesn't give me any information. I want to know what works for me. The only way we know that is by thinking about ourselves. If you want evidence of this is a book called Daily Rituals by Mason Currey. I wish that it wasn't called daily rituals, because it's not really about rituals, it's about habits, it's about when do people get up, when do they go to sleep, how much do they drink? Are they drinking coffee or vodka? Are they with a lot of other people? Are they working in solitude?

These are people who are tremendously high performers; scientists, painters, writers, choreographers, inventors. What you see when you look at this, just this compendium is that people very dramatically, some people work alone, some people work in a crowded studio, some people work from morning to night, some people work a half an hour a day, some people drink tons of coffee, some people drink – they're drinking liquor day long.

What you realize with all these people is they have figured out what they need to do their best work and they get it. If you need to sleep late, you figure out a way to sleep late. If you want to get up early, you get up early. You know yourself and you do as much as you can to create the environment in which you can thrive. I think that the research really goes astray is trying to act like there's one best way. There just isn't one best way.

I mean, we know that from real life. You don't need to have undergraduates eating marshmallows to tell you that some people are morning people and some people are night people. Now there's tremendous research showing that some people are morning people and some people are night people, but the idea that we're going to decide okay, from 10:00 to 1:00 p.m. is the best time for people to work. It just doesn't matter if in general that's true statistically, because it's so individual in how it turns out.

You see this also with clutter. Some people, really they want bare counters, bare desks. I'm like this myself. Some people really thrive on piles. They feel unexpected juxtapositions stimulate their creativity, they can find whatever they want immediately, they're not bothered by looking for things, that's not a problem for them.

For me to say, “Oh, a cluttered desk means a cluttered mind.” You have to have a clean desk, because that's what works for me, or that's what some research shows. It doesn't matter, because that doesn't work for this person. This person feels their creativity is more inspired by this environment. I think really the question is self-knowledge. I know sometimes you can't have exactly the environment that you want, because you have to coordinate with other people. You have to think about the environment they want, or you have to think about the schedule that is practical, so we don't always have max – complete flexibility.

I think we have to start by thinking about well, if I could do anything, what would be my ideal? Then work from there rather than saying, “I need to fit myself into someone else's mold of the best way, the right way, the most efficient way, even if I know from experience this doesn't work for me at all.”

[0:13:57.7] MB: That's a great point. Daily Rituals is a fascinating book. I remember reading that several years ago and it definitely opened my mind. After reading it, I spent a long time thinking about how do I craft my ideal day and work to build and schedule and structure my time, so that I had meetings at certain times and productive time at certain times in a way that was aligned with my own biorhythms and energy levels and everything else.

[0:14:23.6] GR: Yeah, because I think sometimes people are like, “Well, somebody's going to tell me what I should do and I should just do that.” It’s often, it's just not a good fit, because it just isn't what works for you. Yeah, I think self-knowledge is really important, because you might not be able to have your ideal day, but if you don't even know what your ideal day is, then you probably are definitely not going to get it. Your chances are much higher once you know what you're aiming for, or what you would wish for if you could get it.

[0:14:46.9] MB: Another great point. You underscore something that's probably the most single recurrent theme on the entire podcast, which is this notion that self-knowledge really underpins anything. If you don't know what you want, if you don't know what you're capable of, you don't know what you're striving towards, it's going to be really hard to get there.

[0:15:04.7] GR: Well absolutely. It's funny, when I wrote The Happiness Project, I came up with my 12 personal commandments. My first commandment and my most important commandment is to be Gretchen. Now everybody has to substitute their own name obviously, but it's this idea of who am I? You think, “Well, nothing could be easier than knowing who I am. I just hang out with myself all day long.”

As you know, it's very easy to get distracted by the way we wish we were, or the way we assume we ought to be or should be, or what other people expect from us. We lose connection with what is true about us. I think it's one of the great challenges of our lives. We should really try to grapple with what is the truth about me. It's very hard to look directly in the mirror. In fact, I have a lot of questions that I ask myself and other people to say okay, you might not be able to see this directly, how can we indirectly shine a spotlight on something that you've overlooked?

[0:16:01.6] MB: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. It's so hard sometimes to see your own habits, or foibles, or weaknesses with perfect clarity. There's the classic example of having a friend or neighbor come to you with a problem and you immediately see, “Oh, you need to do this, this, and this.” Yet, if you have the same problem, suddenly you're mired in confusion and second-guessing and not knowing what you're supposed to be doing.

[0:16:28.0] GR: Exactly. That's why one of the exercises they say is imagine that a friend came and told you this like, “Oh, I did this terrible thing.” It’s like, “Oh, we've all done it.” You would think nothing of it if a friend did it, but for you you're consumed with both remorse and regret. Yeah, it's funny how we just have – it's just hard to think about ourselves in the same way.

Another thing to do is to ask yourself uncomfortable questions. I love to ask people, whom do you envy? These are very interesting emotion, because it means that somebody has something that we wish we had. People don't like to admit envy. It's not an attractive emotion. It's a very uncomfortable emotion, but it's very revealing because if you're like, “I envy that person's travel. I envy that person’s side hustle. I envy that person's time spent on music.” Well, then that tells you that they have something that you wish you had for yourself.

Then somebody was like, “Oh, but couldn’t you just say this is admiration?” Because they wanted it – they didn't want to frame it in a negative way. I’m like, you have to embrace the negative aspect to it, because if you admire something – I might admire that somebody spends a lot of time in exotic travels, but I don't want to do exotic travels. I admire it. I don't want it for myself. Envy tells you something about yourself that maybe you don't always want to acknowledge, or that you've been ignoring.

[0:17:46.1] MB: What a great framework and excellent journal question to put to yourself and spend 10 or 15 minutes thinking about what do you envy, and start to understand that if nothing else, can start to give you some clarity about how do you want to be shaping your activities and desires and goals towards the things that you ultimately want?

[0:18:04.1] GR: This happened to me, because – I was clerking for Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. I was working as a lawyer and I was reading my law school alumni magazine where it has the reports of what everybody in your class – all the different classes are doing. What I noticed is that when I read about people who had very, very interesting legal jobs, I had a sense of mild interest. When I read about people who had interesting writing jobs, I felt completely consumed with envy. I thought, “Whew, this is telling me something about myself, because I don't want any of these jobs that I'm reading about in law.” I can almost barely even stand to read about the people who have writing jobs, because it just upsets me so much. That was like, “Okay, well there's information there.” Uncomfortable information, but useful information.

[0:18:52.2] MB: I feel most useful things are often involved some form or fashion of discomfort.

[0:18:58.0] GR: Especially when it comes to self-knowledge, because I think a lot of times we don't want to admit what's true for ourselves. It's interesting, because there's this tension within self-knowledge, because on the one hand, we want to accept ourselves and the true nature of our temperament and our interests and our values and acknowledge what is true about ourselves, but we also want to expect more from ourselves. We want to go outside of our comfort zone. We don't want to be complacent. We want to be striving. A lot of times, that means doing things that make us feel uncomfortable, or angry, or frustrated, or we feel stupid.

On the one hand, to accept yourself and on the other hand, to expect more from yourself. Only you know the difference. Only you can say, is this something that you should accept about yourself? This is just something that's not right for you? Or is this something where you're like, “You know what? I really can do this.” Like public speaking, is this something that you're going to – you want to add, or is this something where you're like, “You know what? This is just not my thing.” Or bungee jumping. For some people they're like, “I should really do it. I'm going to feel great if I go bungee jumping. I'll be so happy I did it.” Then there are people like me where I'm like, “You know what? That's one thing. I'm just going to let go. I don't need to have that. Be Gretchen, bungee jumping is not for me.”

[0:20:03.6] MB: How do you think about, or what are some useful tools or heuristics you found for weighing that balance between self-acceptance and high expectations? That's something that personally I'm very interested in and I feel like spend a lot of time thinking about.

[0:20:18.7] GR: I don't think there's an easy solution. I'm sure as you say, you spent a lot of time thinking about it too. There's no easy solution. I think it's just rigorous and relentless self-examination. One thing that I do feel is helpful in decision-making, this is when you're trying to decide should I ask this of myself, or not? A very helpful question is to think, choose the bigger life. Often when things are described as the bigger life, it gives you a sort of element of clarity of what in your mind would be a bigger life.

Here's just a very mundane example, so everybody in my family really wanted to get a dog and I didn't want to get a dog. I was like, “It's going to be a big hassle. There's all this work. It's inconvenient. We're going to have a dog, this dog is going to live with us for longer than our own daughters live with us probably.” I was just like, the pros and the cons were very heavily weighted for me. I knew all the happiness research that pets make people happier, dogs make people happier and healthier. There's a lot of reasons to do it, a lot of reasons. For me, it was unbalanced. Then I thought, choose the bigger life.

Now the interesting thing about the question is for some people, the bigger life could be not getting a dog, because they'd be like, “If I don't get a dog, I'll have this money to spend on other things that are important to me, I'll have more freedom to do things that are important to me. This is this is going to lock me into a set of responsibilities that in the end, it's going to be very confining.” For me, the bigger life is not to have the dog.

For me, it was instantly clear that in our situation, the bigger life was the life with the dog. That allowed me to all of a sudden, I was walking away from my pros and cons list and the answer was very clear. I feel with accept yourself and expect more from yourself, sometimes you can say is this the bigger life? I remember when I started The Happier Podcast with my sister, I called her and I said, “This could be a huge flop in public. I'm just saying you need to be prepared that this is going to go nowhere. It's going to just be a giant failure and everyone's going to – anyone who looks is going to see it.”

She's like, “Totally. A 100% I'm in. Let's just do it.” That's the bigger life. Sometimes choosing the bigger life makes you see that it is worth the anxiety and the insecurity and the frustration and all the negative feelings that can come with when we try to push ourselves out of what is comfortable, because if it represents the bigger life, then that really can help shed a light on what's important to us. Because if it doesn't represent a bigger life, then maybe it isn't something that we want to do.

Everything has an opportunity cost. To do this is not to do that. Maybe this isn't the right thing. If it's not the bigger life, maybe in a week you'll discover something else and you'll have the opportunity and the time and the bandwidth to think about something else, because you're not getting distracted by somebody else's idea of what you should do. Because I think sometimes, that's a problem is people say, “Oh, you should do this, you should do that.” You're like, “Okay, I will.” It's like, “Should you do that? Maybe you should, but maybe you should be doing something completely different.” It's a struggle. It's a constant balance.

[0:23:11.8] MB: That's a very useful framework. I think the dog example is such a perfect way to illustrate it, because it shows you that with the exact same choice getting a pet, the bigger life can be completely opposite things for different people. Yet at the same time, that question is such a powerful forcing function to really think about how do you envision your best life and is this choice or decision putting you on a path towards those kinds of activities and things and experiences, or is it moving away from it?

[0:23:42.1] GR: Yeah, absolutely.

[0:23:44.4] MB: So interesting. We've diverged dramatically from the content of order, but I think it was a worthwhile exploration.

[0:23:51.5] GR: All these subjects are so interrelated. I mean, there's happiness, there's habits, there's order, there's the four tendencies which is my personality framework. I mean, what I love about this subject, which I would say it's all human nature. I would say that's what links all these things and unifies them is this question of human nature. Who are we? Why do we do what we do and how can we change if we want to change? Yeah, you can start in one place and end up someplace else, but it all feels it's part of a large unifying concept.

[0:24:22.3] MB: You bring up another really good, point which is essentially that – ctually two really good points; one is the essential notion that all reality is fundamentally interconnected. Whether you're talking about at a hard sciences level, or even in the domains of human activity, whether it's business, whether it's sport, anything that you're looking at, psychology often underpins all of those different things. Even the broader academic disciplines exist maybe within the academy as silos, but actually they're all describing pieces of reality. To be true, they all have to reflect and connect and incorporate the truths from all the other disciplines.

[0:24:59.2] GR: Well, it's fascinating that you say that because one of the things that I study most intensely is the great essayist from the past, like Montaigne, Samuel Johnson, William Hazlitt, [inaudible 0:25:11.4], because I feel that – William James even, because William James is scientific, but not totally scientific. If you read something like varieties of religious experience, I think that sometimes this thought to me reveals more about human nature, even than the academic research. I love the academic research. I read it constantly, but because of the way that science is done, it's very, very narrow. It's looking at one thing, we have to define all the terms the same way.

You can get distortions and you can also get that people look at things that they can study and they miss as you say, how things might connect. I often find that I will read something in Samuel Johnson and he will sum up in a single paragraph something that I'm like, “I can think of five research papers that are trying to tackle one little bit of something that he's making an observation about and that he's able to make a grand, just based on nothing. I’m Samuel Johnson and I'm here to just tell you what I think.” I'm like, “His insights are more profound.” I feel I've learned more about myself from reading this thing from the 1700s than reading the most up-to-date research.

I think that there's room for both things. I think there's absolutely the research is super important, but then I also think there are great thinkers who have these insights that are very worth pondering. I'm sure that the people doing the research often study folks to see what they're saying, or how they approach these questions from this very different perspective. There's a lot of ways to try to get insight into human nature. For me, that is one of the most powerful sources of insight.

[0:26:54.4] MB: That underscores the essential idea that it's so important to have a multidisciplinary perspective on anything that you're looking at, whether it's any single thing you're trying to study or understand, you have to bring in knowledge from all kinds of diverse fields to truly see the big picture and truly see and get a glimpse of the ultimate reality.

[0:27:16.3] GR: Well, it's interesting on exactly that point. I am a huge fan of the work of Gary Taubes, who wrote the case against sugar and why we get fat, good calories, bad calories. I read the book Why We Get Fat and overnight I changed everything about the way I eat. I mean, except for leafy green vegetables and chicken. I basically changed everything the way I ate and it had the most dramatic positive consequences for me. I was just completely convinced by his arguments, which was all about insulin function essentially.

Then my father did the same thing. I was like, “Oh, my life was completely changed by this book.” Then off my father goes and he did it too and he had even more dramatic good results. Gary Taubes, he's so convincing in his marshalling of arguments. One of the points that he makes in his area which is about basically metabolism, nutrition, hormones, all that stuff is that the specialists are so siloed that a lot of times they don't understand the true consequences of certain things they've discovered, how they might have relevance to someone who's looking at a very different problem.

You need someone who can step back and be like, “Okay, let's try to put all these pieces together and to think about the big system that's at work.” You need to have all the little itty-bitty systems and information about what's happening in these narrow areas. If you don't try to put them together, you often will miss a really important point because you're not standing far enough back. It's the forest for the trees problem. Especially when systems that are very interrelated, because you only focus on one thing; you may come to the wrong conclusion, because you don't understand how it's actually working in a larger system that might have a very different consequence than the one that you anticipate.

[0:28:54.6] MB: That's one of the guiding principles behind why we started Science of Success and why I'm constantly for a long time listeners have heard me rattle on about the importance of mental models again and again, because incorporating all these different disciplines and all this knowledge gives you such a much richer perspective on anything you're trying to tackle, or understand, or achieve.

[0:29:16.8] GR: For me, I think reading is how I try to do that. It’s just constantly reading. Because I feel with reading, it's a good – I just feel I'm often forced to think through something from a different perspective, or to be confronted with people who argue things that I don't agree with, or who are telling stories about characters who have thoughts or impulses that I would completely disagree with, or can't understand and going through that is a constant way of testing my own thoughts and like, have I gotten stuck in one way of thinking, or am I assuming that I'm right when it's really –

This is one of the problems that I found for myself as I've gotten deeper and deeper. Often I would think, well I'm right, instead of saying this is what's true for me. I really now have a much greater appreciation of how – people have vastly different perspectives on the world. You think, oh, the world – this is what you think. The world is the world. We see what we see. You can reframe if you want to whatever, the facts are the facts. No. My gosh, people have vastly different understandings of what's happening; what's right and wrong, what's preferable, what's valuable, even things like who's being polite.

A great way to see this play out is if I – every time I go to someone's office, I always make a beeline for the kitchen and look at all the signs that are posted in the office kitchen. Because if you want to see the variety of human nature, you look at what people have to say about what you should do with your dirty dishes, because people have really, really different philosophies about what the right behavior is. They absolutely do not understand why anybody would disagree with them and they think it's just barbaric, that anyone is deviating from what they think is right.

It's not that they're wrong. It's just actually people have very different ideas about what's right to do in an office kitchen. Unless you sit down and have a two-hour conversation about it, you don't know, you just see a lot of passive-aggressive signs posted on the sink. Because people have different views, they really see the world in different ways.

[0:31:12.5] MB: Dishes is a great microcosm to understand how all of – I mean, as you said, you could spend hours and hours unpacking the histories and the psychological biases and the upbringings and everything that leads to this one little eruption of a clash over how to handle a dirty dish when there's an entire worldview that underpins that.

[0:31:35.1] GR: No. The thing is people don't – they just think, if you don't do what I think is right, you're either dumb, or you're completely inconsiderate. They don't understand, like and I can even go through this because I've talked to so many people about it, like the different worldviews. Like you say, it’s not that they are like, “Oh, ha, ha, ha. You're the sucker.” They have a view about how to do this right. Who's to say who's right or who's wrong?

This is why in my view, it should be someone's job. Anything that people are – people should just pitch in, I'm like, people are going to have very different views about what is right and how to do it and how often and who should do what and what are people's proper roles and contributions, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, this can go on forever. Have it be someone's job. Have it be someone's job. Have them to get paid for it, have them get recognized for it. If you're like, “Oh, it's someone's job to put away the coffee cups, do I feel being nice to this person and doing it myself? Maybe I do,” but no one's volunteering to do this. If I don't do it, it's not – I think it should be a job. Everything if you want it to be done, have it be a job.

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[0:34:19.9] MB: You brought up another really good point a moment ago as well, which is this idea that there's a huge difference between the seemingly truth-oriented, or objective statement I'm right and this is what's right for me. That applies to what we're just talking about in terms of even small situations of social norms, etc., but it comes all the way back to what we're talking about earlier as well with constructing your own daily rituals and habits and routines and understanding that in some cases, it's not necessarily there's one truth, but rather it's about figuring out what is true for you.

[0:34:52.4] GR: Well and one way this comes up very often is morning people and night people. This is a real thing. It's largely genetically determined and also a function of age. There's an amazing book called Internal Time by Roenneberg, which is absolutely fascinating on the subject of chrono types.

I remember a friend of mine said to me, “You know, my resolution for this year is I'm going to get up early and go running before work every day.” I was like, “No, you're not. Because I know you and you're a night person. You're least productive and efficient and creative first thing in the day.” Like, show me pieces of paper that say the best thing to – why this is a good, efficient smart thing to do, I can show you all the research in the world about why you should do it before you go to work, but I'm just here to say you're not going to do that, because you're a night person.

Instead of setting yourself up for failure and frustration, set yourself up for success. Exercise at lunch, exercise at 4:00 in the afternoon. Because the fact that it makes sense on paper, or it might be more convenient, you've just got to – you get what you get and you don't get upset about yourself. Thinking that, “Oh, it's more efficient to do that.” It’s like, yeah, except that it doesn't get done at all. How efficient is that? Not.

I think that making people think that there's one right way, or best way often becomes a hurdle, because if that way doesn't work for them, they just keep thinking, “Well, I need to just work on that till I can make it happen.” I mean, I was giving a talk me guy was saying, “Oh, for years and years and years I tried to be a morning person, but finally I just buckled down and I did it and here itself, well I turned myself in a morning person.”

I was like, “Yeah, how old are you? You're 55-years-old. You're experiencing the morning person stuff that happens with age. If you were 28-years-old, I assure you would not be saying this.” He's like, “You're right. At 28, I couldn't have done this.” I'm like, “Right?” I mean, it's not that it's not a good idea, it's just that it's not practical because it's not going to work at all for some people. I'm always thinking there's so many ways for us to achieve our aims. If one way doesn't work for you, then go on to something else. Experiment, learn. If something doesn't work, you learn something about yourself. That's valuable too.

One thing that works for a lot of people is don't break the chain. Some people love that. If that works for you, that's great. It's a very powerful strategy. If don't break the chain makes you feel choked and trapped, okay then you learn that about yourself. You're not going to use don't break the chain, there's a million other ways to achieving it.

[0:37:12.6] MB: What is don't break the chain? I've never heard of that.

[0:37:14.8] GR: Oh, don't break the chain it's just you're going to keep track of how often you've exercised, or how often you've done meditation, or whatever, how often you eaten less than 50 grams of carbs in a day and you're just going to check it off. You're going to build up a chain of the X marks the spot on your calendar and the chain is the chain of successes. For many people, this is very, very compelling. They'll get up to 465 X's on their chain and then they get the flu or whatever.

For some people, they really love that, but then some people don't like that. It's like, okay fine. This is not the best tool. It might have worked really well for me, I might say this is the best tool, but it's not a tool that's universally useful. To-do lists; in my personality framework, the four tendencies – I mean, there's a sizable number of people who cannot use to-do lists. Fine. They constantly beat themselves up, because they're like, every grown up in the world uses to-do list. I'm like, “No, they don't.” A lot of people don't like to-do list. There's other ways to achieve your aims. If this is a tool that doesn't work for you, just move on. There's nothing wrong with you. You don't need to change, you just need to find a tool that fits you, because everybody's always trying to cram themselves into some model, but that model – there are very, very few universal things. I'm constantly trying to figure out what’s universal. Just about nothing is universal.

I wrote a book Happier at Home. Some people don't even have the idea of home. Not many people. Most people have some idea of home, but some people really don't and that's pretty – you think, well that's got to be pretty universal.

[0:38:51.3] MB: Yeah. So many ways we could we could explore into that. I'll throw a couple – obviously all the links we've talked about today, also throw a couple previous episodes we have. We interviewed Daniel Pink and he talks all about the different time chrono types and everything, we'll throw that in the show notes. We have a couple other episodes around habits and stuff for listeners who want to dig in more.

I think you brought a really good point up, which is the importance of adherence to anything that you're doing and a habit that you actually do is even if it's not the optimal strategy, is a hundred times more valuable than a habit that's the optimal strategy that you do once or twice and then stop doing completely.

[0:39:25.9] GR: Yeah, there's a great line from Voltaire, “Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.” That's very important to remember. The thing that you do is much more valuable than the perfect thing you never – that you don't do. Yeah. It's the whole, don't get it perfect, get it going. I mean, it is very, very important to remember.

For listeners who want to concretely implement, or apply some of the ideas and strategies that we've talked about today, what would be a couple, or one particular action item, or action step for them to start implementing either some of the ways to create order in their lives, or to implement some of the other themes we've talked about?

[0:40:03.8] GR: Well, when it comes to outer order, I think a very valuable question – because one of the first things is how do you decide what to keep and what to either discard, or recycle, or donate, or whatever? Is do you need it, do you use it, do you love it? Because if you don't need it, use it, or love it, then you probably don't need it. That's the cord to the appliance from nowhere. If you don't need it, use it, or love it, that's something that's really failed to test and probably needs to go.

Another thing to remember is don't get organized. People are often like, “My first thing I'm going to do, I'm going to get organized.” If you get rid of everything, you don't need, don't use, don't love, you may not need to get organized. You may not need to run out and buy a filing cabinet if you realize that you don't need to keep any of that paperwork. I was just talking to a guy the other day and he went through all his paperwork and he realized a huge portion of it, strangely enough, was pet insurance. Paperwork and paperwork and paperwork related to his pet insurance and he realize it's all online. He could just get rid of all of it. It’s not like it didn't have to be organized. Don't get organized. Get rid of everything you don't want and then you may not need to get organized at all.

Another idea that works for a lot of people is the one minute rule; anything that you can do in less than a minute, do without delay, because this gets rid of those little tasks. Then often when those little tasks are cleared out, the big tasks seem easier and they also stand out more. It's like, “Oh, now that I've gotten rid of all this little stuff, I see that I do have this one big pile. Maybe I'll just do a couple things every time I walk by the pile.” Then pretty soon, even the thing that looks like the biggest mess if you really just tackle it little by little, usually it's pretty – it’s something that you can you can get under control, once you really are making a consistent effort to tackle it.

[0:41:44.1] MB: With the example of the pet insurance, that's definitely something I've discovered I had an epiphany probably three or four years ago. I realized all these manuals and instruction booklets and everything that I've been keeping for all my electronics and everything, you just Google what to do and it's all online, and you can even find the actual manual online, but you're probably better off just finding a three-minute YouTube video where someone shows you exactly how to do it. Yet, I was keeping stacks and stacks and stacks of all these things and I threw them all away.

[0:42:10.3] GR: Yeah. I mean, I completely agree. Or you keep travel information. Travel information gets outdated so quickly. A lot of research, it's like – research just go stale, unless you really want to push yourself not to hang on to those things. Or people rip out pictures of, “Oh, I love the way this looks.” Or, “Someday, I'm going to do my dream kitchen.” I’m like, “Look, five years from now when you move and you're going to renovate your kitchen, you're not going to be looking back at this.” I mean, it's just not realistic.

Sometimes people like to just rip things out or hold on to things just I think almost as a way of just claiming it. If you want to do that, that's fine, or bookmarking it, but then let it go. It served its purpose. I think really looking at that color. I mean, one thing to do is to think about how technology creates a clutter that we can get rid of. If you only take pictures and videos on your phone, do you need a camera and a video camera and a charging cable and all that stuff? Probably not. Do you need a scanner? Do you need a fax machine? Do you need a photocopier? Maybe not. Do you need a compass? Does anybody have a compass? I bet some people have a compass. You don't need a compass.

There's certain kinds of things that we just don't need. Alarm clock; do you ever use an alarm clock? Maybe you do. A lot of people say you should use an alarm clock instead of your phone and keep your phone out of your room. Maybe you do that. Maybe you don't, maybe you just use your phone. In which case, why do you have an alarm clock in every room? Sometimes they seem useful and they're there, and so we don't realize actually, I don't even ever – I haven't used this thing in three, four years. Getting rid of it will just open up that space in our lives.

[0:43:44.7] MB: A lot of times and I can almost hear listeners asking me this question, because I get questions like this very frequently, I don’t know, in my e-mail. What we talked about today, this idea that so many things are very context-dependent. It might work in one context, it might not work in another context. It might be right for you, it might be completely wrong for you, can create almost a analysis paralysis. What prescription would you give to somebody who's listening who now feels even more lost or confused, how can they see through the haze or start to get clarity around figuring out what's going to actually work for them?

[0:44:21.9] GR: I would just say, do you need to use – do you love it? Just everything that is in your area, just say that, because that's very clear. I mean, the pet insurance, do you need it? No. Do you use it? No. You don't need it because it's online. Do you use it? No, I never look back on it. Do you love it? Certainly not. Okay, get rid of it. I think that's very clarifying.

One famous question is Marie Kondo’s Spark Joy, I think that that's a much tougher question as I'm like, “Ah, it doesn't spark joy, except that it's useful to me and I guess, everything that's useful sparks joy.” Then that feels it's not really being true to what the idea of sparking joy is. Then I get in caught in this tangle of what is joy anyway and is workmanship enough, blah, blah blah? I'm like, “Do I use it? Do I need it? Do I love it?” Because there's a lot of things I don't even really like, but I use them all the time. It’s like yeah, I use it. I think that is a question we can eliminate a lot of decision fatigue.

With clothes, people often are like, “Ah, I could wear it. I should wear it. I would wear it. Do you wear it? Do you use it? Do you need it? Do you love it?” Now because sometimes we have things that are very useful, even though we don't use them very often. This is why I don't like the one-year test, because sometimes people are like, “If you haven't used it in a year, get rid of it.”

What about heavy ski pants? I don't even ski, but I have ski pants because I'm a super cold person. When it's very, very cold in New York City when I leave, I just wear ski pants all day. Some years it's not that cold and I don't even use the ski pants, but then the day comes and I'm like, “I'm going to get out the ski pants.” I use them and I do – when the need arises, I do need them. Even maybe two years would go by when I don't need them. I think that is the helpful test.

[0:46:05.0] MB: Just adding a tiny bit on to that to extrapolate this idea out beyond even creating order to rituals and habits more broadly and trying to figure out whether they work for you, whether they're right for you, you brought up a great point earlier as well which is this idea of experimentation and how useful that can be for figuring out which habits and strategies are going to work best for you and are going to have the highest adherence rate for you. What are you going to actually do.

[0:46:29.7] GR: Yeah. Now that's a huge theme in the book Better Than Before, because obviously that's the million dollar question. It's not so much what should you do, but how can you get yourself to stick to the things that you want to do? Really, a helpful question in this regard is what have you succeeded in the past? Because a lot of times, people are failing at something now, but they have succeeded in the past, but they're ignoring the information that maybe would help them move forward.

If I said to my friend, was there a time when you exercised in the past? He's like, “Yeah, in college I would always go – I would go for a run right before dinner and I did that very consistently.” It’s like, okay so what are we learning from that? Are we learning that you need to go running before you eat? Are we learning that you need to run with a friend? Are we learning that you need to run in the afternoon? I would say, I think it's the time of day. I think your adherence goes up when it's later in the day, because that's when you have higher energy.

Maybe that's not it. Sometimes people are like, I thought of the class was because I knew I was paying, but it turned out it wasn't the paying, it was seeing a friend. Or it turned out it wasn't seeing a friend, it was knowing that if I didn't come to the class, somebody else wasn't able to take my slot and my feeling of guilt about taking a slot from someone else who would otherwise been able to go to a class, that's what made me go.

Understanding why sometimes you succeed and other times not, often can really guide your experimentation because you'll see, well what are those factors that are coming into play? If you've never succeeded, you've never done, it maybe you've never tried to do it, just to say, “I'll try it this way. If this doesn't work after a good solid try, try it at a different time of day, or I'll try –” Ask around. What’s worked for other people? If something sounds appealing to you. Maybe it's hard for you to exercise unless you're training for the marathon, or training for a big run. Okay, that's a thing that works.

I hate that. I would never do that. I don't like that idea. I don't like games. Competition would make something less fun for me, but maybe for you you’ll pickup basketball game every week, would be much more likely to keep you exercising. Then once you do it once a week you're like, “Hey, I could do this twice a week.” Then, “Hey, maybe I want to go running another night because it's going to help my game.” Once you start, you can start building on it.

You're absolutely right, experimentation is crucial. Sometimes people get discouraged. They're like, “There's one way to do this. I can't do it that way. What's wrong with me?” Instead of saying, “Okay, that's a data point. Let's move on to the next opportunity. What else can I try?” If you look around, you'll see there's a lot of ways to achieve aims. There's a lot of ways to get done whatever you want to get done, so just figure out what works for you.

[0:49:04.2] MB: Gretchen, where can listeners find you and all of your work online?

[0:49:09.7] GR: I have a site, gretchenrubin.com and there's a huge amount of information there. I post frequently about my adventures and happiness and good habits in human nature. There's also tremendous resources, all kinds of discussion guides and one-pagers. There's excerpts and audio clips of my books. If you're thinking, “Oh, I want to see if this book is for me,” you can read free, or listen free there. Just a ton of – There's a quiz. We briefly mentioned the Four Tendencies Framework. If you want to know if you're an upholder, questioner, obligor or rebel, which is very relevant to this, you can take the free quiz there. I think two million people have taken that quiz now.

Then I also have a podcast called Happier with Gretchen Rubin, which I do every week with my sister Elizabeth, where we talk about how to be happier. We talk about a lot of these ideas, but very practical ways. Our first segment has always tried this at home, it's always a suggestion, a concrete idea that you could try at home. It's just part of your ordinary routine. Happiness hacks, like the little hacks that we all find from time to time that can boost our happiness. It's really fun and very concrete.

Then I'm on social media everywhere under the handle Gretchen Rubin and I love to connect with readers and listeners and viewers. If you have thoughts, or insights, or questions, or observations, hit me up.

[0:50:21.3] MB: Well Gretchen, thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing all this wisdom. Been a great conversation.

[0:50:27.7] GR: I so appreciate it. I feel like we could talk all day. We're interested in so many of the same things.

[0:50:31.7] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you, our listeners master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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Thanks again, and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.

March 28, 2019 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making, Focus & Productivity
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Three Dangerous Ideas That Are Putting Our Society At Risk with Dr. Jonathan Haidt

September 13, 2018 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making, Emotional Intelligence

In this episode we discuss several seemingly good ideas that are actually quite dangerous. We start with a look at how the immune system can teach us about the vital importance of being “anti-fragile.” We look at lessons from ancient cultural traditions all the way up to modern psychology research to peel back the layers of our current social dialogue and look at many notions that have permeated our current thinking. What are the best ways to promote growth and development? How can we help heal people who have suffered from trauma? How can we create a framework that allows for our society to seek the truth and solve our toughest challenges? We take a hard look at the answers to these questions and much more with our guest Dr. Jonathan Haidt. 

Dr. Jonathan Haidt is a social psychologist and professor of ethical leadership at New York University’s Stern School of Business. He is the author of multiple books including most recently The Coddling of The American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas are Setting Up a Generation for Failure. He is also the author of over 90 academic articles and his work has been featured across the globe.

  • In teaching psychology 101 Jonathan found that there was much wisdom in the ancient traditions around how we could be happier 

  • There are a lot of really bad ideas being spread these days - despite the fact that they arise from good intentions 

  • What can the immune system teach us about vital importance of anti-fragility?

  • The reason peanut allergies are rising is because America started protecting kids from peanuts in the early 90s

  • Kids need to get sick and be exposed to dirt and germs so that they can be healthier - that’s the cornerstone of the immune system

  • The importance of being anti-fragile

  • If you try to protect children you end up making them weaker, not stronger

  • The importance of play - free play without adult supervision - and letting children take risks

  • We can’t reach natural without a lot of play (in the form of risk taking)

  • Comfort zones are most often expanded through discomfort - we must be uncomfortable to grow

  • Our extreme culture of overprotection has really harmed children

  • Every ancient culture that leaves us with deep writing shares the idea that we don’t experience reality as it really is - we experience reality as we interpret it - our life is the creation of our minds

  • “There’s nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so"

  • You don’t grow in a threatening world - you hunker down and get defensive

  • Children need to be in the zone of exploration and excitement

  • You shouldn’t trust you first reaction - you need to question your first reaction

  • What happens when students themselves ask for protection from ideas and think that ideas will traumatize them?

  • A desire to protect those who are emotionally fragile is wrong - exposure is how you solve fear and emotional fragility

  • The way you overcome a phobia is not by hiding and walling yourself off from what you’re afraid of 

  • If the goal is actually to help people - the entire culture of safetyism - that people are fragile and need to be protected - is directly opposed to the scientific research around what actually helps people

  • Are the phenomena of Safe space, trigger warnings, micro aggressions and the morality of “safetyism” that arose in the last few years healthy for individuals and society?

  • If you goal is healing trauma and helping people improve - embracing discomfort is the best solution

  • If your goal is to seek truth - then you must expose yourself to ideas you disagree with and have others challenge your ideas as well 

  • If you goal is ideological victory then you try to silence your opponents ideas 

  • If people don’t share ideas because they’re afraid of being attacked - then the entire goal of truth seeking cannot be achieved. Today people are afraid of speaking up and afraid of challenging many ideas

  • Humans are tribal creatures - we evolved with a tribal mentality in order to survive - and yet this instinct can be very destructive when we apply it to ideological divides 

  • We’re playing the truth seeking game, we’re trying to make a diverse community, and we must give everyone the benefit of the doubt

  • Just as we don’t tolerate racism or sexism, we shouldn’t tolerate anyone silencing ideas  

  • Silencing discussion and thought policing can actually foster support for damaging and negative ideas

  • This isn’t just a debate about how to interpret reality and communication - the culture of “safetyism” is a major contributor to the rise of suicide and anxiety

  • Since 2011 rates of suicide have risen 25% for men and 70% for women 

  • This is a pragmatic argument - its not moral or political - and yet the dialogue today prevents the discussion of truth from even happening

  • What does the psychology tell us about child development and personal improvement?

  • What kind of norms are conducive to growth and self improvement?

  • The world is incredibly safe now - physically its very very safe

  • We live in a bubble where algorithms confirm what we already want to believe 

  • Anything you say has infinite downside potential - you could be shamed and criticized - the internet and social media have enabled many intellectual “mob” dynamics where ideas that go against the norm are often silenced or never brought up

  • Our evolutionarily ingrained mode of thinking is more tribal/religious and this is directly opposed to the more scientific method of thinking and inquiry 

  • What does it mean to be spiritual, but not religious? We have all the same religious psychology that we’ve always had, but without organized religion. And often these religious tendencies can manifest in social movements. 

  • At times people fighting for a cause can drift into a tribal mindset 

  • How can we “wise-up” ourselves and our children to think more clearly and embrace the lessons of psychology to be healthier, happier, and think more clearly?

  • The “Chicago Principles” for freedom of thinking - an open platform to speak, discuss, and debate ideas - so that you can make your case with evidence and good arguments. 

  • If you don’t have diversity of ideas when you’re searching for truth you often come to erroneous conclusions. When we lose viewpoint diversity the science itself is at risk. If you don’t have diversity you’re likely to have bad thinking. 

  • We have to think about the social process of how imperfect flawed individuals (like all humans) can work together to discover what’s true

  • Homework: Spread these ideas to others.

  • Homework: Think about the context and system you can to improve and think about how these principles can be appleid to keep healthy debate and productive disagreement 

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Show Notes, Links, & Research

  • [Book] The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom by Jonathan Haidt

  • [Book] The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure by Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt

  • [Amazon Author Page] Jonathan Haidt

  • [Book] Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • [Book] The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  • [Book] The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion by Jonathan Haidt

  • [Book] iGen: Why Today's Super-Connected Kids Are Growing Up Less Rebellious, More Tolerant, Less Happy--and Completely Unprepared for Adulthood--and What That Means for the Rest of Us by Jean M. Twenge PhD

  • [Book] Free-Range Kids, How to Raise Safe, Self-Reliant Children (Without Going Nuts with Worry) by Lenore Skenazy

  • [Website] Let Grow

  • [Website] OpenMind

  • [Website] Heterodox Academy

  • [Download] ALL MINUS ONE: John Stuart Mill’s Ideas on Free Speech Illustrated

  • [Website] The Coddling

  • [SoS Episode] The Biggest Threat Humans Face in 2018

  • [Wiki Article] Chicago principles


[00:00:19.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[00:00:11] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than 2 million downloads, listeners in over a hundred countries and part of the Self-Help for Smart People Podcast Network. 

In this episode, we discussed several seemingly good ideas that are actually quite dangerous. We start with a look at how the immune system can teach us about the vital importance of being anti-fragile. We look at lessons from ancient cultural traditions all the way up to modern psychology research to peel back the layers of our current social dialogue and look at many notions that have permeated our current thinking. 

What are the best ways to promote growth and development? How can we help heal people who’ve suffered from trauma? How can we create a framework that allows for our society to seek the truth and solve our toughest challenges? We take a hard look at the answers to these questions and much more with our guest, Dr. Jonathan Haidt. 

Do you need more time; time for work time, for thinking and reading, time for the people in your life, time to accomplish your goals? This was the number one problem our listeners outlined and we created a new video guide that you can get completely for free when you sign up and join our email list. It's called How You Can Create Time for the Things That Really Matter in Life. You can get it completely for free when you sign up and join the email list at successpodcast.com.

You're also going to get exclusive content that's only available to our email subscribers. We recently pre-released an episode in an interview to our email subscribers a week before it went live to our broader audience. That had tremendous implications, because there is a limited offer in there with only 50 available spots that got eaten up by the people who were on the e-mail list first. With that same interview, we also offered an exclusive opportunity for people on our e-mail list to engage one-on-one for over an hour with one of our guests in a live exclusive interview, just for e-mail subscribers.

There's some amazing stuff that's available only to email subscribers that's only going on if you subscribe and sign up to the email list. You can do that by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the homepage. Or, if you're driving around right now, if you're out and about and you're on the go, you don't have time, just text the word “smarter” to the number 44222. That's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44222.

In our previous episode, we discussed several simple strategies for thinking better by looking at lessons ranging from sources as disparate as the methods of Sherlock Holmes to the principles of professional poker. How do you create focus and engagement when you're trying to solve a problem? What are the potential ways that you can improve your memory to supercharge your thinking ability? How can you train your mind to think more effectively about emotion, risk and uncertainty? We discussed this and much more with our previous guest; Maria Konnikova. If you want to learn how to think clearly and make better decisions, check out our previous episode. 

Now for interview with Jonathan. 

[00:03:11] MB: Today, we have another fascinating guest on the show; Dr. Jonathan Haidt. Jonathan is a social psychologist and professor of ethical leadership at New York University Stern School of business. He's the author of multiple books including most recently The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure. He's also the author of over 90 academic articles and his work has been featured across the globe. 

Jonathan, welcome to The Science of Success. 

[00:03:35] JH: Hi, Matt. Thanks so much for having me on. 

[00:03:38] MB: We’re very excited to have you on the show, and there's so much work that you've done that I think is super relevant for our audience, but I'd love to start with kind of the sort of opening parable of Coddling the American Mind and kind of the story of the guru and how that sort of explores some of the kind of, as you call them, untruths that are causing people to think sort of poorly about the world today. 

[00:03:59] JH: Sure. So my first book is called The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom, and it grew out of a course I taught at the University of Virginia. I was a professor there for 16 years, and in teaching psych 101 I decided to – I found that I was often quoting the ancient, so I wrote a book basically taking ancient ideas and evaluating them as a psychologist. Are they true?

So what we do in The Coddling of the American Mind is we noticed that there're a lot of really bad ideas being taught to kids these days for good intentions. It’s always done for some purpose to help them in some way, but they can be debilitating. 

So, for example, the first one is what doesn't kill you makes you weaker, and that's obviously the opposite of the classic dictum; what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. So the way we decided to open the book, it was Greg's idea that we would go on a – Greg Kukianoff is my co-author. What if we tell a pretend story that we’re going off on a wisdom quest ourselves? So we start of the story kind of straight-faced saying that we went on a trip to Mount Olympus in Greece and we talked to an oracle there in pursuit of wisdom, and he gives us these words of wisdom, like what doesn't kill you makes you weaker. So that just flies in the face of not just ancient wisdom, but of modern psychology about anti-fragility, which I hope we’ll talk in length about. But that was sort of the literary device that we used to open the book to get across the idea that kids can be harmed by bad ideas even if they are well-intentioned. 

[00:05:27] MB: So let's take into anti-fragility, because I think that's one of the kind of cornerstones of what you talk about in Coddling the American Mind, and it's funny to me because we interview people from such a wide array of fields; the military, the FBI, astronauts, poker players, neuroscientist, research psychologist, and again and again and again you kind of come across this theme that you have to face discomfort. You have to kind of – To build that mental toughness, you have to engage with things that you disagree with and things you don't like, and that's ultimately sort of one of the fundamental things in performance psychology, is that you shouldn't sort of hide from things that you just like. You should sort of toughen yourself against them. 

[00:06:05] JH: That's right. So I could repeat that. I could just be the 17th person to say that on your show, but maybe what I can bring in, which your listeners might not have heard about, is the immune system and the way that the immune system works. So we open chapter one with the story of my son's first day of preschool when he was three years old, and the teachers just went on and on and on in the parents’ orientation meeting about peanuts. It was like this is the most important thing they care about. No peanuts. Nothing that ever touched a peanut, or looks like a peanut, or has the other word letter P in it. It was crazy. Because it turns peanut allergies are rising. 

Well, when I looked into this, I discovered that the reason peanut allergies are rising is because Americans started banning peanuts. They started protecting kids from peanuts in the 1990s, and that just flies in the face of the logic of the immune system. So the immune system is this credible evolutionary accomplishment. Evolution had no idea what germs and worms and parasites we were going to face. So it created this open-ended system that learns, it learns really quickly, it learns even while in utero. It learns from what foods your mother has eaten, as to what foods you’re safe and which ones it should react against. 

And if you protect kids from dirt and germs, if your mother is always washing your hands and not letting you play in the dirt, yeah, in the short run, you're going to get sick less often, but kids need to get sick. They need to be exposed to dirt and germs so that their immune system can wire up and then they’ll be healthy for the rest of their lives, or healthier. 

So what this shows is that the immune system is anti-fragile. It’s a wonderful word made up by Nassim Taleb, the guy who wrote The Black Swan, and it describe systems that are the opposite of fragile. So if a wineglass is fragile, you have to protect it, and if you drop it on the ground, nothing good will happen. It will break. But there are other systems that you have to drop on the ground in order for them to work. 

So while Taleb was originally writing about the banking system, the economic system that was so fragile before the 2008 crash, he called it. He predicted that the system is fragile, not anti-fragile. So it was vulnerable to catastrophe, and he was right. In the same way he says, “There are many other systems, like the immune system,” and even says, “like children.” He says “If we over protect children, we think we’re doing them a favor, but we’re not. We’re weakening them.” 

[00:08:26] MB: I love that example of the immune system, and I think it shows that kind of the importance of being anti-fragile is hardwired not only into our psychology, but our very biology. 

[00:08:35] JH: That's right. That's right, because when you have an open-ended system that has to learn, evolution built in that learning into the process. So we make a big deal in the book about the importance of play and free play without adult supervision, and it has to include letting kids take risks. 

I learned so much interesting work on play, but one thing that I'm sure your listeners will have noticed when they were kids or if they've seen other teenagers, when kids learn to skateboard, they don't just go for a ride, they ramp up the challenge. So once they skateboard, they then skateboard on staircases and they try to skateboard down railings. Kids do this. Once they master a skill, they want to test themselves, push themselves. That's the developmental program. We are designed for play. We can't reach maturity without a lot of play, which includes risk-taking. 

So this is wonderful. My wife gave me a fortune the other day. She had a fortune cookie and she handed me the fortune. It said, “Comfort zones are most often expanded through discomfort.” That's exactly the process. Kids seek out discomfort in some ways. We’re designed to push ourselves, test results, and that's how we grow strong. 

[00:09:47] MB: Yet our culture has continually in the last 5, 10, 15 years been sort of moving more and more towards being fragile and being more brittle. 

[00:09:56] JH: That's right. Our book; The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation For Failure. It's not about millennials, it's about the kids born after 1995. They're the ones who really bore the brunt of our extreme overprotectiveness, our extreme emphasis on academic achievement, our willingness to sacrifice recess and also some other things for more and more and more time on math and other skills that will be tested. We just started over protecting and under liberating our kids, especially in the 1990s. It goes back to the 1980s, but it really picked up its pace in the 1990s. We think we’re doing kids a favor, but we’re hurting them. We are preventing them from developing in the way that human beings were designed to develop. 

[00:10:41] MB: So you talked about a number of kind of untruths that you uncovered or sort of discussed in The Coddling of the American Mind. Let’s dig into the next one, which is sort of always trusting your feelings, or the belief that you should do that. 

[00:10:54] JH: Yeah. So chapter two of the happiness hypothesis, the second great untruth is always trust your feelings. So what we really need to be teaching kids is to question their first reactions. This is part of maturity. The book actually grows out of Greg Lukianoff’s experiences. My co-author and friend, he is prone to depression, and he had a suicidal depression in 2007, and as a result of that he learned to do cognitive behavioral therapy in which you learn the names of distortions. Like people who are depressed and anxious, they are constantly catastrophizing is one distortions, like, “Oh, this little thing happened, but my God, it's going to cause everything else to fail,” or black-and-white thinking. Everything is either all good or all bad. 

There are these patterns of disordered thought, and Greg had learned to stop doing them. That's what you do in CBT. You learn the names of these distortions. You catch yourself doing them, and gradually over a few months, you do them less and then you're happier. You're tougher. You are more resilient.

What Greg began to see in 2013, he runs the organization; The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, fighting for free speech for college students. He began to see in 2013, 2014, the first signs of students themselves asking for protection from ideas, because if somebody reads this novel, it could traumatize them. It could reactivate their PTSD, and there's not really any evidence of this. PTSD is not reactivated by some obvious reminder of like the word. It's often activated by something particular to you and your experience, something that happened on the day of your trauma. 

So the whole thing is not based on very good psychology, but it's based on – Let's give him the benefit of the doubt, a desire to protect people who are emotionally fragile. But it's misguided, because the way you get over fears is to be exposed to little reminders, not to the giant fear itself, but to little reminders, like the mention of something in a novel. 

So the overprotectiveness, the desire to protect people from the very experiences that will actually help them get over their fears is misguided, and we think maybe contributing to poor mental health on campus. 

[00:13:06] MB: I think that such an important point, and this whole idea that the way you overcome a phobia, right? I mean, if you look at the psychology research, it's not by constantly walling yourself off and building your life and building your own sort of personal world where you never encounter the thing that you're afraid of. It’s through exposure therapy. It's through building that muscle of being comfortable with discomfort. 

[00:13:28] JH: That's right. I think it's Pavlovian conditioning, for any listeners who have taken psychology. So if you have an elevator phobia, maybe you were once trapped in an elevator for six hours and you thought you were going to die. What should you do? Should your friends help you avoid television shows that have elevators in them? Should people walk you up the stairs and not even bring you near an elevator? Should they accommodate to your phobia? That might seem like a nice thing to do, but in fact the more your friends do that, the deeper your phobia gets. 

When you get reinforced, when you avoid elevators and your anxiety subsides, you learn to avoid elevators. But if you go near an elevator and nothing bad happens to you, that's actually how your sphere subsides. That’s when you get over the phobia. That’s how you counter condition. That’s how you extinguish it. 

So here, the always trust your feelings and the anti-fragility come together. We are anti-fragile creatures. We have very strong feelings, but those feelings are not always a reliable guide to the world as it is. Sometimes we need to change our feelings. This is called growth, education and development. 

[00:14:35] MB: And I think it's really important to kind of underscore again that talking about phobias, and elevators, etc., that this perspective is based in science. This idea that the way to overcome a phobia is by exposure, and the opposite of that, this sort of pursuit of avoidance in creating these kind of safe spaces is, well, kind of very well-intentioned is not based in science. In many ways, kind of opposed directly to what the science actually says around dealing with these kinds of issues. 

[00:15:05] JH: That's right. So if the goal is therapeutic, if the goal is actually to help people, then the whole culture of safety, as we call it, the idea that people are fragile and need to be protected from things that could trigger them or make them feel uncomfortable, is misguided. Again, that fortune, comfort zones are most often expanded through discomfort. 

So when students want to create a safe space, it comes out of feminist chat rooms in the 1990s. So if a group of women on the internet want to create a space where they can talk about experiences of sexual assault and rape and they want to say, “This is a safe space in which everyone will be supported.” That's totally fine. There's a right of free association. People want community. I mean, that strikes me as totally fine. 

The issue is, should this way of thinking be brought on to a college campus and should it ever be used when thinking about speakers on campus or classroom discussions? That's the question. That's where I believe we make a big mistake. By we, I just mean some students. Most students don't really go in for the safe space ideology. Most students are perfectly normal and healthy and tough. 

But there's been a new idea since around 2014, plus or minus a year, a new idea crept on to campuses fairly rapidly and spread very quickly about safe spaces, trigger warnings, micro-aggressions, cultural appropriation. I never heard any of these terms before 2014, and by 2016 they’re all over the academic world. 

[00:16:31] MB: So what do you think obviously that whole kind of ecosystem is starting to seep into the behavior and the thoughts of not just children, but many people around our society? How do we kind of bridge the gap between what the science and the research shows are kind of healthy reactions to negative stimulus and what the kind of emotional response of people often is?

[00:16:52] JH: Well, that's what we’re hoping, that a science trade book like ours will do some useful work. So this new morality of safetyism that emerged on college campuses around 2014-2015 is very quickly spreading from American college campuses, to British-Canadian, and more recently Australian universities. It’s not spreading on the continent of Europe. They don't have these ideas of safetyism. So it is spreading throughout the English-speaking world in higher ed. 

Then what became really clear last year, in 2017, is that it’s spreading very rapidly through certain industries; through media, technology, and journalism. Those of the three where I hear a lot of reports about it. So if you go to work, if you graduate from a liberal arts college that is all about safe spaces and things like that, then you go to work in a mining company or a manufacturing company, people are going laugh at you and you'll get over it quickly. 

But if you go to work at the New York Times or The Atlantic, they’re wonderful publications. I love those newspapers and magazines, but I've heard from people who work there that among the youngest, the interns, the youngest people, they’re bringing this idea in that certain viewpoint, certain people are so hateful, so unacceptable that we cannot give them a platform. We cannot listen to them. They are dangerous, their mere presence, their ideas are dangerous. 

Now, if there's any field that should understand the necessity of bringing diverse viewpoints together and of listening to both sides, it's journalism, also law and also the social sciences. In all of these places, this new philosophy of safetyism, it's a politicized notion. It's related to the culture war. It's undercutting the ability of these areas to do their work.

[00:18:30] MB: I think that's where these ideas in some way sort of concern me, aside from the whole conversation about sort of the therapeutic damage that they can cause potentially, is that when they kind of get in the way of the scientific pursuit of truth, I think that's where it gets kind of really concerning. 

[00:18:47] JH: That's right. That's a good way to put it. So a way that I began to think about this, is that human beings are very flexible. We can play a lot of different games, and each game has a different goal or endpoint, or telos as the ancient Greeks said. What's the purpose or function of something? 

So we can play the healing game if we are doctors or therapists where we try to make someone better, or we can play the discovery game when we try to figure out what's true. So for that, we often do try to consult diverse viewpoints. We have people debate and argue. We do this in juries. We do this in the science literature. 

So the truth seeking game is a very special game where you have to have people who will challenge your confirmation bias and, in turn, you challenge their confirmation bias. None of us are very good at finding the truth on our own. We’re all very, very good at finding evidence to support what we already believe. That's the confirmation bias, and that was at the heart of my second book; The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion. 

So we can do the healing game. We can do the truth seeking game, or we can do the victory game. That's where I know who's on my team. Other people are on the other team. You're either with us or against us. We’re good, you’re evil. Depending on the stakes, the ends will justify the means, and we must win. We must defeat you. 

Now, I think our politics is horrific. I don't want to get too political on this broadcast, but I certainly understand people who are playing the game of defeat the other side very passionately. Right now, there certainly is a place for the victory game of the war game, but the classroom is not it. The classroom is a very delicate ecosystem in which if people are afraid that they will be attacked personally for sharing an idea, they won't share their idea. If people don't share ideas that go against the consensus, then the whole system breaks down. The truth seeking game cannot be played. 

So this is what's happening not at most universities. Most universities are not overtaken by this, but if you look at the elite schools, especially in the Northeast and the West Coast and especially the liberal arts colleges, there's data showing that most students report self-censoring, especially around political or politicized topics, and anecdotal reports, whenever I go to these schools and I ask if they have a callout culture, all hands go up. People are afraid of speaking, afraid of challenging received wisdom, and this is terrible. This is a terrible environment to put young people in, but this is the way things have evolved especially in the last few years. 

[00:21:13] MB: I think that kind of gets to the third untruth that you talk about, which is this sort of battle between good and evil and how that can cause kind of cognitive distortion. 

[00:21:24] JH: That's right. So one of the big themes of the righteous mind was that we are tribal creatures. We evolve for tribalism. There's no other way to explain it. If you look at fraternity initiations at universities in America and you compare them, the initiation rites of pre-state societies, the pain, and fear, and disgust that is used, the rituals that take place exactly at midnight. There’s something on the human mind that really prepares us for tribalism. Men more so than women, young men especially go in for these tribal rituals, but it's very deep in our psyche, and this I think is the only explanation for sports. Why do we spend so much time and money on sports? Because we love tribalism, we love the battle of us versus them, and we can do it in a way that’s not harmful. Sports doesn't really make people hate the other side, except maybe in Britain. They have soccer hooligans and things like that. But for the most part, sports is friendly rivalry. 

Well, in academic life, it can be really destructive to interpret everything in a sociology class through the lens of us versus them, where us, let's say, is the left and them is the right, or to make it racial or gender, does a terrible disservice to the people engaged in the conversation. It prevents them from playing the truth seeking game. It dragoons them. It forces them into the victory game, and a lot of students don't want to play it, but they're afraid to stand up against it. 

[00:22:47] MB: So how can we start to kind of clear the way for the pursuit of truth and kind of the freedom to express any idea and evaluate whether it's true or not?

[00:23:00] JH: Yeah, it's hard, but I think it begins with an appreciation of the fact that we need boundaries around activities, and leadership must set those boundaries. So what I mean is the president of the university on the first day or when he or she welcomes the incoming class, of course, they talk about – They talk about diversity and inclusion, of course, but along with that they need to talk about what we're here to do. Why are we here? What is special about this place that you could not get if you just stayed home and went to the library every day, or found books on the Internet. What's special about this place?

So if they set norms about our mission, that we’re playing the truth seeking game, that we require disagreement, that we are trying to make a diverse community, and that means there will be frequent, almost constant misunderstandings. We have to all try not to give offense. I think it's useful to train students in those ways. But at the same time, we have to train everyone to give everyone else the benefit of the doubt. 

Diversity is hard, and I think some of the ways that we teach about diversity may amplify problems. Given that we’re tribal creatures, the more we play up identity and we teach students to judge each other based on their identity, the worst things will be. 

So I think leadership has a crucial role to play, especially at orientation on universities. They have to set rules, and just as we will not tolerate acts of racial hostility, or sexism. We’ll not tolerate those things. Similarly, we should not tolerate anyone shouting someone else down, preventing someone from speaking. So these are some of the most florid examples of what's been happening on college campuses, is speakers who get no platform, or shouted down because their views are deemed to be too hateful. 

The usual way to respond to that is to either just don't go to the talk, or debate the person. Show them where they’re wrong. Show the audience where the person is wrong, and that's the way things were on college campuses until around 2013-2014. That’s when this recent wave of shout downs have been.
A couple of them have involved violence, although for the most part they’ve been nonviolent.

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[00:27:03] MB: It’s interesting, and in many ways when you can kind of silence the debates around these ideas, you prevent some of these more kind of racist and sexist perspectives from really being explored and dismantled, in many ways kind of create a space for them to kind of foster, because they can't be challenged because they can't be discussed. 

[00:27:19] JH: That's right. When you tell people, “You can't say that. You will be punished if you say that.” The response is never, “Oh gosh! Then I must be wrong. I'll stop thinking that.” The response is usually a kind of anger. It is an emotion in the psychological literature called reactants. Reactants is the angry feeling you get when you're told you can't do something or say something, or if you're pinned down. You have an extra strength to fight off restraint. People don't like that. 

And so in many ways, speech restrictions, the sort of thought policing, it makes a lot of people angry, and I think it makes especially young men much more interested in speakers and for that attack, that kind of political correctness. So there’s certainly has been a rise of – Again, I don't want to get into the debate about what is the alt-right and all those things, but I think the political polarization that we're seeing, I think many people on the left are shortsighted if they try to shut down kinds of speech. I think when they do that, they tend to simply make enemies and push people over to their opponents. 

In fact, I got a great quote here. Let me see if I can find. There’s a quote from Steve Bannon. Let’s see what did he say. He said, “The democrats, the longer they talk about identity politics, I got them. I want them to talk about racism every day. If the left is focused on race and identity and we go with economic nationalism, we can crush the democrats.” 

Now, that's a strategy decision. I'm not sure that he's right about it, but as a social psychologist, I think that there is at least some truth to that, that people on the left or some recent movements on the left, when they talk about these identity issues in ways that seem to attack people or treat people as evil, they make enemies, and it's often counterproductive. 

[00:29:07] MB: So kind of pulling back from the sort of moral or political element of this, I think you talk in the book as well about kind of how this culture of safetyism contributes to things like rising suicide rates and anxiety. Tell a little bit more about that. 

[00:29:22] MB: Yes. This is why I think that we will begin to see some change, because this isn’t just a debate about how to interpret things. What we're seeing is a very, very large and rapid with a sudden onset, a large rise in rates of anxiety and depression in adolescents. It's not a rise of bipolar disorder, or schizophrenia. It's not across the board and it’s not just people making up words or a new generation acting like it's, “Oh! We’re so depressed, because we’re happy. We’re comfortable talking about depression.” It’s not that. Because the suicide rate has shown the exact same thing and the hospital admission rate for self-harm has shown the exact same thing. 

Let’s see. I think I have some numbers here. Let me see if I have those numbers handy. So if you look at the suicide rate for adolescents, boys always have a high - Girls make more attempts, but boys have – Boys commit suicide more often, because they tend to jump off buildings, or use guns. They tend to use irreversible means. 

So boys have a higher rate, but what has happened since roughly 2011 is the rates of suicide and anxiety and depression began rising for boys. So the boys’ suicide rate is up 25%. If you take the average of the suicide rate for the United States for teenagers from 2001 to 2010, that was 11.9 per hundred thousand. That's risen to 14.8 per hundred thousand. So that's a 25% rise in boys killing themselves, teenage boys killing themselves. That's gigantic. That's a lot of kids. But compare that to the rate for girls, it was only 2.9 per hundred thousand if you average across the first decade of this century, and it goes from under three to now about five per hundred thousand. That is an increase of 70%. The girls’ suicide rate is up 70% if the last two years of data are pretty much identical at five per hundred thousand. 

So my point is that something rather sudden has happened. It hit us all by surprise. Over the last few years, we've been hearing reports from college campuses that the student counseling centers are overwhelmed that the line of students seeking help for depression and anxiety is way out the door. We can't meet the demand. Will, now, finally in last couple of years, we have really clear national data on this. So this is a catastrophe. This is a lot of dead kids, suffering kids, destroyed families. This is horrible what's happening. We’ve got to get a handle on it. 

Social media is clearly a big piece of the puzzle, and there’s a wonderful book called iGen, I-G-E-N, by Jean Twenge that goes into that, but we think that the other big, big piece of the puzzle is rather than just social media. The other big piece of the puzzle is that we cracked down on playtime and independence so severely in the 1990s that we've denied kids the thousands of hours of unsupervised play that they need to become self-governing adults. 

Kids need to have plenty of time to work out conflicts to be alone, to not have a parent there by them all the time, and because we've deprived kids of play and freedom so severely since the 1990s, we think that this is one of the reasons why as they get older they have failed to develop their psychological defenses. They're not as comfortable being on their own. When they come to college, they need a lot more help. 

[00:32:36] MB: I think that kind of underscores and comes back to what we were discussing earlier, which is the idea that this – And you make this point in the book as well, is this is kind of a pragmatic argument. It's not necessarily sort of a moral or political position, and yet in many ways the dialogue today kind of often prevents this sort of the rational discussion of this from taking place. 

[00:32:57] JH: Exactly. So I'm a social psychologist. I study how to help people get along, how to bridge political divides, and the debate about what’s going on on campus unfortunately is so politicized. So we have one side, people on the right and the right wing media saying, “Oh! Snowflakes and SJW, social justice warriors. They’re crazy.” 

We have the people in the left saying, “Oh! You know, the alt-right and the racists, and the homophobes,” and all sorts of bigotry, and each side has real things that they can point to. Each side is not crazy, but they're just making the problem worse, and what Greg and I are trying to do in our book is put aside all moralism. We’re not blaming anyone. The subtitle of the book is really what the book is about. It’s how good intentions and bad ideas are setting up a generation for failure. 

We’re trying to cut through the partisan nonsense and just say, “What does the psychology tell us about child development? What does the psychology tell us about intellectual development in college? What kinds of ideas, or climates, or norms are conducive to growth and which kinds impede it?” So that's what we’re trying to do in the book, is just take a very pragmatic approach to diagnosing a serious problem and then recommending solutions. 

[00:34:13] MB: I think it’s worth noting as well that I know we’ve talked a lot on the show about sort of child development and sort of focusing on children and universities. But the reality is that these principles of growth and the psychology research around how to improve and grow and move out of your comfort zone, this applies to anybody and everybody and there's many people whose growth is limited by kind of the perspective that they should avoid or kind of wall off things that they disagree with as opposed to sort of facing them head on. 

[00:34:40] JH: That's right. I think that habit is clearly taught by social media. So it's not really clear what to do about this. So the generation we’re talking about, igen, or genz, kids born after 1995. They’re the first in history to grow up with social media, millennials got it when they were in college or later. They didn't have it as teenagers, but igen got it when they were 13, a lot of them 13 or 14. 

So the world is incredibly safe now. The crime rate is over. Rates of child deaths and accidents plummeted. The world is physically very, very safe for today's young people, but live much of their life on social media where there's all kinds of nastiness, and racism, and sexism, and social media offers people the chance to block other people. 

So if you grow up being exposed to bad words, which of course are upsetting, and then you can block those people, then you come to college and somebody, the college republicans have invited some speaker that you think is hateful. Why can't we block them? Why do we have to have them on our campus? 

So I think their habits of thought that are developed by a grown up in a social media ecosystem that are not good for living in a democracy. Democracy is messy. You're always going to dislike the other side, and somehow we have to learn to work with each other. My fear is that the youngest generation has grown up with such vivid examples of Democratic dysfunction and with tools to block out other people. 

So I think when they grow up and take over the reins of governance, they may not be as prepared as some previous generations were. That's my fear. I don't know what will happen, but that is a concern. 

[00:36:13] MB: I wrote a piece a couple of months ago around the same idea that essentially we live in a world today, and social media is a big piece of it, that algorithms essentially sort of reinforce constantly our own kind of confirmation bias. We live in a bubble basically where we’re almost never exposed to any ideas that we disagree with. It's such a major contributor to the polarization in our society today. 

[00:36:34] JH: That's right. So the Internet and social media have done two things that are very, very powerful. So we've known since the 1990s, as soon as we got search engines, like Google, and before that, AltaVista, that the internet makes it very easy to confirm whatever you want to believe. So you can start only consulting sources that you like, and of course the media ecosystem has been very conducive to that. 

So there's the filter bubble problem. We’re all sure that we’re right. We become more self-righteous, more angry at the other side. But the other effect, which is very different and I think is perhaps more pernicious, is that the costs of punishing others have gone way, way down and the benefits to doing so have gone way, way up. 

What I mean by that is that we all live in an economy of prestige, that is just as you get paid for some things and you get billed for others, when you do something socially, you either gain credibility or prestige points or you lose them. So if everybody is incentivized to – You gain prestige by doing well in the test or by making money, you'll try to do well on test and you’ll try to make money, and that may have some negative social repercussions. But for the most part, those are not so bad. 

But if you are incentivized to condemn others, if you get points for calling out others – So if someone says some perfectly innocent thing or they wear a piece of clothing that you can criticize and call it culturally insensitive, if you get points for doing that, well that’s how you get a call out culture. So young adults today, or teenagers, are for the most part it seems immersed in ecosystems that many of the elements of a call out culture. What that means is that they grow up such that everything they say has almost infinite downside potential. Anything you say could be taken out of context. Maybe you slip. You use a word you're not supposed to use, and you can be pilloried for and you can be publicly shamed for it and others will join in, because they get credibility points. They get prestige points for jumping on the pylon. 

So the internet has enabled not just the informational distortions of a bubble, but the social distortions of mob or vigilante justice. It’s not exactly justice, but mob dynamics. I think we have to really be sympathetic to the young generation growing up like this. So when they come to college, yeah, they're more reluctant to speak up in seminar classes, they’re more reluctant to challenge prevailing, the norms or whatever is the dominant view in the classroom. So their education suffers because of it. 

[00:39:03] MB: And that kind of gets to something else that I've heard you speak about, this idea that the sort of – The sort method of scientific thinking is an unnatural sort of way of thinking and the kind of religious mode of thinking. I’ll let you kind of explain what that means, because it’s not necessarily religious. It’s sort of our more natural kind of method of thinking. 

[00:39:23] JH: Yeah. So I love to think evolutionarily. I think human beings are the most fascinating species that’s ever lived. I'm really glad that I'm one of them, and we have an amazing origin story. A part of the origin story is we have to get from where upright walking apes about 3 or 4 million years ago. We’re not human in any real sense. We’re just like chimpanzees or guerrillas who happen to have stood up, chimpanzees or bonobos who happened to have stood up vertically. Somehow we get from there to civilization, and it seems – At least the story that I tell in the righteous mind is that a really big part of the transition was because we developed religion. I don't mean large-scale religion. I mean, tribal dynamics in which we circle around something. Make it sacred. We worship a tree, or a rock, or an ancestor's skull. There are forms of traditional or tribal religion that are very, very similar around the world. 

In doing that, we create a moral order, we create a set of rules and norms that bind us together, and this is especially effective as we’re fighting the next tribe over. So we have a long period of evolution for tribalism. So if we evolved for that, and then we develop these large-scale religions only very recently; Christianity, and Hinduism, and Judaism. These religions are very recent, and in some ways now they're not fading out, I wouldn't say, but more and more Americans say that they’re spiritual, but not religious.

What that means is that they have all the same religious psychology that we've always had. We think about sin, and sacredness, and blasphemy, and sacrilege, and things like that. They have all the same psychology, but without an organized religion. Sometimes those religious psychological tendencies show up in new social movements, and this is what some people are saying about some elements of social justice. 

So social justice of course is crucial if people are being denied access or dignity because of their category membership, then that is a social injustice. So in the book, we’re very clear that social justice is a good thing. There are certain meanings of social justice that are so consistent with deep intuitive notions of justice. But at times, people fighting for a cause drift into a tribal mindset in which they can become like religious inquisitors, and a lot of people are writing about this now. There's a lot of interesting pushback from people who are not white males who are now writing about the ways that identity politics and the social justice movement have in some ways gone too far, gone off the rails, or imported some kind of ugly tendencies. So that’s something that we’re very concerned about. 

[00:42:01] MB: So how do we, kind of as you put it in the book, wise up to thinking more clearly around all of these various problems?

[00:42:10] JH: Yeah. So it's a really multifaceted problem, and therefore there's no simple answer. In the book, we conclude that there are six causal threads, six different causes of the problem, and the briefest list is rising political polarization with political purification of the faculty. Rising mental illness, especially depression, overprotective, paranoid parenting, the loss of play, the bureaucratization and incorporatization of universities and some new ideas about social justice and identity politics that, as I said, I think are often counterproductive. So those are the six trends. 

Some of those can't really be reversed. So what we recommend in the book is break the problem into what are we doing to kids before they reach college? Let's stop doing that, or at least really keep our eye on what is healthy developments and kids can live independently. In the second piece is what kinds of environments they find once they arrived in college? Though I should say, a lot of the dynamics are now happening in high schools, especially private schools, prep schools, are changing very rapidly as far as I can tell. 

So on the child-rearing front, I think we need a lot more free range parenting. So there's a wonderful woman, Lenore Skenazy, wrote a book called Free Range Kids after she let her nine-year-old son ride the subway in 2009 and he survived. He wanted to do it. He rode a few steps by himself. A lot of people were upset by this, like, “Oh my God! How dare you let your kid ride the subway? He could be abducted.” So she started based on those experiences. She started a movement called Free Range Parenting. 

Lenore and I and a few other people have recently grown this movement into a group called Let Grow. So if listeners go to letgrow.org, especially those who are parents. If you want advice on how to raise kids, go to letgrow.org, and we have a lot of advice based on scientific research. A lot of it for how do you give kids a healthier childhood that will make them stronger, more resilient adults? That's the first piece. 

Second piece is what do we do on campus? There, it just requires leadership, and leadership at many universities has been reactive, not proactive. So if you wait for things to blow up, if you wait for there to be a protestant and demands over somebody who said some word that somebody didn't like, to wait for that to happen, it’s very hard to get a handle on things. 

But if you lay out the norms very clearly upfront on the first day of class, the first day of orientation about what we’re trying to do here, the special role of universities. How we need to give each other the benefit of the doubt. If you have good clear leadership and you emphasize that this is different from the public square, this is not about fighting the political war. We’re doing something different here. I think you can create environments in which students can grow intellectually. They can have some space away from the culture war that's likely to rage for the rest of their lives once they leave college.

[00:45:03] MB: I know you also talk about kind of a framework called the Chicago Principles. Could you share those and kind of why that's so important?

[00:45:09] JH: Yes. So these issues, the issues we’re talking about now about students protesting, speakers, things like that, they didn't just start in 2013. There was a wave of that in the 1960s. In Britain, they call it no platforming. So there've been students making demands on universities for a long time. When I was in college, I went to Yale in the early 1980s, and then it was all about compelling the University to divest from South Africa. 

So students have applied pressure to universities for a long time, and that's understandable. That's normal politics. But if you're running the university, many leaders have observed that their job is just impossible. Because if they agree to do what the students want on .1, well, a third of the university community believes the opposite and a lot of the alumni deal with. 

What happens if you take sides? It's the same problem that corporate leaders are now having with their push to take sides on Donald Trump or anything else. It's antithetical to the spirit of the enterprise if leadership and the institution has to take sides on every issue. 

So the University of Chicago put together under the leadership of Professor Jeffrey Stone, they wrote a great document; The Chicago Principles on Freedom of Speech, I think is what it was called. The key point is that the university provides a platform on which all members are free to speak, free to contend, free to make their case, but the university does not take sides. As long as you say that, then you instantly redirect student efforts from protests to demand that the university do X, Y or Z to students arguing with each other, which is what they should be doing. 

So the Chicago Principles can really help insulate universities from the kind of pressure campaigns that many are getting and let them focus on providing an open platform not for everyone in the world. We don't want every holocaust denier and neo-Nazi to come to campus, but at least students should be free to speak and argue with each other and they should learn to make their case with evidence and good arguments.

The Chicago Principle is a very simple fix, but it's a step that every school should take to endorse them, to have a clear policy that people get to speak, nobody gets shouted down, and the university is not going to take sides in your debates. 

[00:47:18] MB: I know we touched on a number of sort of semi-political themes in this interview, and I want to underscore again this point that we discussed earlier. My personal perspective on this is sort of purely pragmatic. I'm concerned with how do we sort of discover the best possible strategies for improvement? How do we determine what the scientific research says? Ultimately, how do we pursue truth? When I think about my kind of intellectual heroes, people like Carl Sagan and Charlie Monger, the pursuit of truth and trying to really discover what's true is of such sort of fundamental importance to me. The issue can often get politicized. But I want to kind of bring that back and just reemphasize what you’ve discussed and said many times in this conversation that this is a discussion of what does the scientific research say and how do we create a society where we can have healthy, happy, psychology well-formed individuals and we can pursue truth. 

[00:48:14] JH: That's right. That's beautifully put. The one thing I would just add to that is that it's hard to just say, “Oh, we're just pursuing truth here. No politics.” Well, we’re often guided unconsciously by what we want to be true. So if a research community has no political diversity, then that research community is going to surprise – Not surprisingly find, but the scientific research supports what it believed all along. 

So just as when psychology was all male, it came to some erroneous conclusions about gender and about women's psychology, and it was very important to get women into psychology. So in the same way, the social science isn’t particularly left. There are many reasons for that, and would never have universities where half the faculty are conservative. There are a lot of psychological reasons why progressives are more drawn to the activities of faculty members. 

But when the imbalance gets severe, as it has gotten in the last 10 or 15 years, when we lose viewpoint diversity, then the science itself is at risk. The conclusions of science about politicized topics are no longer reliable. 

So what a lot of my work is on is not trying to help any group. I'm sometimes accused of trying to help conservatives, because I think we need more conservatives in the academy. But what I'm really trying to help are university and trying to help the process, that if you don't have diversity you’re liable to have some bad thinking. So we have to think very carefully about the process, the social process, the institutional process by which imperfect flawed, post hoc reasoning creatures like us who evolve to dance around campfires and worship rocks and trees. What kind of process and culture puts us together? Is that we end up producing reliable science. That's kind of an amazing story. It's a process that's easily corrupted, and that's what I'm really trying to work on in a lot of my projects and it’s what Greg and I are trying to work on in part in our book; The Coddling of the American Mind. 

[00:50:07] MB: So for listeners who want to kind of try to concretely implement some of the things we’ve discussed, what would be sort of a piece of homework or an action step that you would give them?

[00:50:17] JH: Well, first go buy the book. Buy a copy for all your friends and have them read it. I’m only being a little bit facetious, and that some of these problems are not ones you can address on your own. So the social media problem for raising kids is really hard to just crackdown on your own kid. I’m trying that now with my 12-year-old son and my 8-year-old daughter put on a program that limits them to two hours a day of internet use. It's very hard for me to do it on my home, because they say none of their other friends have this. They feel like they're being separated, because can't do – My son can't do Fortnight, and he can't do these battle games with three or four hours a day like his friends. 

But if you have a group or community; a school, a religious congregation that has a discussion about these problems, if you do things as a group, you can be much more effective. More generally, I would break it down into are you trying to improve a school? Are you trying to improve an office or a company? Because these problems are flooding into the corporate world. So listeners are going to find these issues coming to them at work increasingly over the next few years. 

So try to define what's the system that you’re hoping to reform or improve, and then think about what changes would keep healthy dynamics of debate, and discourse, and respectful disagreement. 

[00:51:32] MB: For listeners who want to learn more and find you and your work online, where's the best place to do that?

[00:51:37] JH: We have a website for the book at thecoddling.org. I cofounded an organization called heterodoxacademy.org. I also cofounded this project that's just grown wonderfully at openmindplatform.org, and that's a program we developed that will help any community learn to talk more openly, learn skills of productive disagreement. 

So our most powerful tool is the open mind program at openmindplatform.org. We produce a wonderful book of John Stuart Mills, On Liberty, just The Second Chapter. Arguments about freedom of speech and why it's so important in a liberal democracy. So if you go to heterodoxacademy.org/mill, you can find our Mill book. It's free, a free PDF download or an inexpensive Kindle. So we have a variety of resources that will help individuals and groups to maintain or improve the climate for healthy productive discourse and disagreement. 

[00:52:38] MB: Well, Jonathan, thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing all these wisdom, a very important and very timely topic. 

[00:52:45] JH: Well, thanks so much, Matt. I really enjoyed our conversation. 

[00:52:47] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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September 13, 2018 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making, Emotional Intelligence
Maria Konnikova-01 (2).png

Simple Hacks For Thinking Better From Sherlock Holmes To Professional Poker with Maria Konnikova

September 06, 2018 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making

In this episode we discuss several simple strategies for thinking better by looking at lessons ranging from sources as disparate as the methods of Sherlock Holmes to the principles of professional poker. How do you create focus and engagement when you’re trying to solve a problem? What are the potential ways that you can improve your memory to supercharge your thinking ability? How can you train your mind to think more effectively about emotion, risk, and uncertainty? We discuss this and much more with our guest Maria Konnikova. 

Maria Konnikova is the author of two New York Times best-sellers Mastermind: How To Think Like Sherlock Holmes and The Confidence Game. Maria graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University and received her Ph.D in psychology from Columbia University. Her work has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, Scientific American, WIRED, and much more and she is an avid poker player as well.

  • Is is possible that a fictional character could teach us how to think and make better decisions?

  • How stories and examples can bring important scientific concepts to life

  • How many steps lead up to 221 B Baker Street?

  • It’s not about eyesight - its not what you see it’s also what you observe

  • Mindfulness - the thing that distinguishes Sherlock Holmes from any other detective is that he is fully present and sees and observes small details

  • The hidden power of how remarkably quiet Sherlock Holmes is - he’s a great demonstration of the power of contemplative routines

  • There’s no such thing as multi-tasking - there is only the concept of Task Switching

  • Focused engagement and concentration are the key to building deep memories 

  • “The game is afoot” - how flow can help us think more effectively 

  • How do we create focus and engagement when we’re working on something?

  • You carry this real estate with you all the time - your “Brain attic” - and how you can use it to think more effectively

  • Any information you remember is only useful to you if you can retrieve it when you need - and that’s why you must store things properly 

  • A few strategies for making your memory more effective:

  • Encoding - the moment where we first remember it. If you aren’t paying attention you won’t remember in the first place and the memory will never get encoded. 

    1. Memories are most powerful when they’re tied to other existing memories

    2. Every single point of encoding is an anchor or retrieval point that can retrieve everything

    3. Use multiple senses to encode a memory - not just one - build a rich texture of memories to encode them 

  • Encoding is different than rote memorization - it’s much more powerful

  • How Maria went from a psychology PhD to becoming a professional poker player

  • How poker can teach you how to make decisions under conditions of risk, uncertainty, and emotion 

  • You can teach people about biases and yet they still make the same mistakes 

  • Poker is a way to teach your mind to think in the right ways about risk, emotion, and uncertainty

  • Poker is an interesting confluence of ideas and a laboratory of ideas that that are important to thriving and succeeding in life

  • Probability

    1. Variance

    2. Risk/Uncertainty

    3. Ego/Emotion

    4. Self awareness and your own shortcomings

  • There is no better metaphor for the game of life than poker

  • What enabled Maria Konnikova to go from a total outsider to a professional poker player in such a short period of time?

  • Having one of the top players in the world mentor her was a huge piece of it

    1. Having a beginners mind and being willing to not know and ask simple questions 

    2. Being willing to study and put in massive hours to learn

    3. Fully immersing yourself, studying 9-10 hours a day, reading, analyzing hands, watching streams, taking notes, talking to people about strategy

    4. There are no shortcuts, ever. There’s no magic bullet. 

  • You must put aside your ego to learn and improve

  • Homework: Single most important thing that you can do is meditate 10 minutes per day every day. It doesn’t matter what’s going on around you. Admit the distractions and then let go of them. It doesn’t need to be a quiet place. That one habit can be life changing. 

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http://www.successpodcast.com/show-notes/2016/12/28/why-you-shouldnt-follow-your-passion-the-rare-value-of-deep-work-with-cal-newport

Show Notes, Links, & Research

  • [SoS Episode] Why You Shouldn’t Follow Your Passion & The Rare Value of Deep Work with Cal Newport

  • [App] Freedom

  • [Article] Could boredom be curable? - The Boston Globe

  • [Book] Mastery by Robert Greene

  • [SoS Episode] When the Impossible Becomes Possible - The Secrets of Flow Revealed with Steven Kotler

  • [Book] Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi

  • [SoS Episode] Effortlessly Remember Anything – Lessons From A Grandmaster of Memory with Kevin Horsley

  • [SoS Episode] How To Learn More In Record Time - Speed Reading, Concentration, & Memory with Jim Kwik

  • [SoS Episode] Brain Scans Reveal The Powerful Memory Techniques of Memory Champions, Greek Philosophers, and SuperLearners with Jonathan Levi

  • [SoS Episode] Making Smart Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts with Annie Duke

  • [Wiki Article] Daniel Kahneman

  • [Wiki Article] Stanford marshmallow experiment

  • [Book] Sherlock Holmes: The Centurion Papers: The First Collection by The Davies Brothers

  • [Book] The Confidence Game: Why We Fall for It . . . Every Time by Maria Konnikova

  • [Book] Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes by Maria Konnikova

  • [Instagram] Maria Konnikova

  • [Twitter] Maria Konnikova


[00:00:19.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[INTRODUCTION]

[00:00:11] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than 2 million downloads, listeners in over a hundred countries and part of the Self-Help for Smart People Podcast Network. 

In this episode, we discuss several simple strategies for thinking better by looking at lessons ranging from sources as disparate as the methods of Sherlock Holmes, to the principles of professional poker. How do you create focus and engagement when you’re trying to solve a problem? What are the potential ways that you can improve your memory to supercharge your thinking ability? How can you train your mind to think more effectively about emotion, risk and uncertainty? We discuss these and much more with our guest, Maria Konnikova. 

Do you need more time; time for work time, for thinking and reading, time for the people in your life, time to accomplish your goals? This was the number one problem our listeners outlined and we created a new video guide that you can get completely for free when you sign up and join our email list. It's called How You Can Create Time for the Things That Really Matter in Life. You can get it completely for free when you sign up and join the email list at successpodcast.com.


You're also going to get exclusive content that's only available to our email subscribers. We recently pre-released an episode in an interview to our email subscribers a week before it went live to our broader audience. That had tremendous implications, because there is a limited offer in there with only 50 available spots that got eaten up by the people who were on the e-mail list first. With that same interview, we also offered an exclusive opportunity for people on our e-mail list to engage one-on-one for over an hour with one of our guests in a live exclusive interview, just for e-mail subscribers.

There's some amazing stuff that's available only to email subscribers that's only going on if you subscribe and sign up to the email list. You can do that by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the homepage. Or, if you're driving around right now, if you're out and about and you're on the go, you don't have time, just text the word “smarter” to the number 44222. That's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44222.

In our previous episode, we broke down the complex and confusing world of body language and nonverbal communication. We discovered the easiest starting point for learning the basics you need to know to get started with reading and understanding body language, and we dug into the specific tools and strategies you can start using right away to not only decode the body language of others, but also change your own body language to communicate what you want. We explored all of these and much more with our previous guest, Joe Navarro. 

If you’ve always wanted to learn about body language but feel overwhelmed by such a complex and confusing field, be sure to listen to that episode. Now for our interview with Maria. 

[INTERVIEW]

[00:03:04] MB: Today, we have another fascinating guest on the show; Maria Konnikova. Maria is the author of two New York Times bestsellers; Mastermind: How To Think Like Sherlock Holmes, and The Confidence Game. Maria graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University and received from PhD in psychology from Columbia. Her work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Scientific American, Wired and much more. She’s also an avid poker player. Maria, welcome to The Science of Success. 

[00:03:34] MK: Thanks for having me, Matt. 

[00:03:35] MB: Well, we’ll super excited to have you on the show today as long time listeners will definitely know. I’m a big poker player as well and so I definitely want to dig into some of that stuff. But before we do, I’d love to kind of start out with some of the other work that you’ve done, especially the book Mastermind I thought was really fascinating. 

What kind of led you to decide to write a book about Sherlock Holmes and are there some applications from kind of a fictional character that can actually lead us to better thinking and decision making? 

[00:04:07] MK: Yeah, those are both really great questions. The first one especially because I’m not someone who was a lifelong Sherlockian. When I started writing the book I realized there was this huge community of Sherlock Holmes fans, Sherlockians from all over the world who’ve just lived and breathed Sherlock Holmes for their whole life, and that wasn’t me. I had been introduced to the stories as a child when my dad read them to me – Well, to our whole family. We had reading hour every Sunday before bed. It was really wonderful, and they really were beautiful. I remember loving them as a child, but I had never reread them as an adult. So it was kind of a childhood experience, childhood memory and nothing more. 

In this particular instance, I was working on a piece about mindfulness, and this was actually years before everyone knew what mindfulness was. So we’re going back to like 2010 when this was not a buzzword and people, when you say mindfulness, were like, “Oh, doesn’t that have something to do with Buddhism,” and that was basically the end of it. 

I was trying to figure out, “Okay. I want to write about mindfulness and cognitive psychology. How do I do that in a way that people will relate to, that they’ll understand what it is?” because whenever I’m writing I always like to have stories, examples, things that bring scientific concepts to life. As I was trying to figure out how to do this, I actually had a flashback to childhood to my dad reading to us. I remembered one particular scene, which was I couldn’t remember the story. I knew it was from Sherlock Holmes, and it was about Holmes asking Watson how many steps lead up to 221B Baker Street and Watson not knowing. 

Luckily, now we’re living in a time of Google, so I was able to go online and just quickly Google steps 221B Baker Street, and right away I had the story. I reread it and I thought, “Oh my God! This scene is actually –” My memory was really good in terms of just going to the right place, because if you read the scene fully, it’s not actually really about the number of steps. It’s about this exchange that Holmes and Watson have at the end when Watson says, “Well, I don’t really understand. My eyes are just as good as yours,” and Holmes says, “It’s not about eyesight. This is the difference between us. You only see. I both see and observe.” I was like, “That’s mindfulness, both seeing and observing.” 

So I wrote up the piece and then ended up doing really well, and in the process I also became really kind of fascinated with the Sherlock Holmes stories. I thought, “Oh! This really interesting. I really enjoyed reading this. Let me start rereading them. Maybe I’m missing something.” 

So I started rereading them from the beginning, and just within a few stories I said, “Oh my God! This is a goldmine. There are so many psychological concepts here. It’s so well-described. Conan Doyle really knew what he was talking about when it came to the human mind, and that was the seat of the book and that ended up becoming Mastermind.

To get to the second part of your question, of course, Sherlock Holmes is a fictional character, but what people often don’t realize is that first of all Arthur Conan Doyle was medically trained. He was a doctor. He actually started the Holmes stories, because his practice wasn’t going very well and he was sitting by himself and waiting for patients that never came. So he started writing the Holmes stories, and he was someone who was always very much into all of the scientific developments of the day. He followed everything that was happening in Germany. He knew what was going on with the signs. He was a follower of Sigmund Freud, and Holmes was actually based on a doctor. He was based on Arthur Conan Doyle’s mentor at the University of Edinburgh, and Joseph Bell was the inspiration for Sherlock Holmes. 

So we have here a fictional character who’s created by someone with a deep scientific training based on a doctor. Yes, absolutely, we can apply him to real-life because he came out of real-life.

[00:08:11] MB: What a great instance of kind of the power of subconscious incubation, right? You’re sort of working on an article and your subconscious just bubbles up this idea from 10, 20 years ago and suddenly that is exactly what you were looking for for that article. 

[00:08:26] MK: Yeah. I think that’s probably the longest incubation period I’ve ever had, but it was a really crazy moment, because I distinctly remember this. I was like, “Oh!” I remember as a little, like that’s what struck me. That particular story, it wasn’t like murder or some big moment when I was scared. It was this not knowing. Because I remember identifying with Watson and saying, “Oh my God! I don’t know how many steps lead up to 221B Baker Street either.” I don’t see and observe. I only see. 

As a kid you don’t really get the depth of that message, but it definitely stuck and I have never, I think, seen subconscious incubation in action to the extent that I saw it then.  

[00:09:11] MB: So let’s dig into some of the kind of lessons from studying Sherlock Holmes. What were some of the big findings or takeaways that you uncovered? 

[00:09:19] MK: Well, I think that the first one was actually the first one, literally. It was this theme of mindfulness which ended up becoming the theme of the book, that the thing that distinguishes Holmes above any other detective, is the fact that he is able to observe. He’s present. He’s in the moment. He really just focuses and takes in all of these information. 

One of the things that you find when you actually read all of the stories and look at what Holmes does, is how remarkably quiet he often is. He often makes a joke that he’s the most inactive/active detective I’ve ever seen, because if you look at photographs – Well, photographs. If you look at drawings that were done for the book, and basically every story you see him sitting in the chair with his fingers stippled together. Just sitting quietly or with a pipe or with his violin, and it really taught me the importance of taking those quiet moments of taking a step back, really making sure that you reflect before you act, before you jump in to anything, and that you try to see the whole picture. Because I think we’re living in a moment where we’re really just primed for a constant action. Whenever you take a step back and are like, “You know, I just want to reflect on this for a moment,” people are like, “Oh, you’re wasting time. You’re not doing anything.” 

What Sherlock Holmes helped me rediscover was that actually doing nothing can be the most powerful thing that you can do. It can really unlock your mind. It can really force you to focus and to take in so much more than you would if you were just constantly busy, busy, busy. That’s a lesson that I think I have to keep relearning, because everything in society pushes against that. 

Especially when it comes to, I think, the buzzword, multitasking, which is kind of my eternal enemy, because one other thing that you learn from Holmes and something that I tried to kind of convey in the book was that, first of all, there’s no such thing as multitasking. Our brains can’t do two things at once. So it’s task-switching, and it’s really exhausting and you don’t actually end up doing anything as well. 

But Holmes also, this fictional character, shows the importance of being able to resist distractions and just kind of to uni-task, to really uni-task well, and that that’s one of your most powerful things when you can unleash your mind in that way. 

Once again, that’s so hard to remember. Even right now, you and I are doing this interview and I’ve actually blacked out my computer screen, because otherwise I have – I don’t know, how many tabs opened. It’s just so temping to be like, “Ooh! Let’s look at Twitter and see what’s happening. Let’s look at this. Let’s look at that.” 

I actually remember when I was writing the book, I downloaded this software, because I was writing about it, freedom, which turns off your internet. Because I was writing and not multitasking, I was like, “Oh, this is actually really interesting. Let me try it out. I don’t actually need it.” Get a free trial period and I think after 10 days or something you have to pay for it. I was like, “Oh! Let me do the trial period. I’m not actually going to need it.” 

The first day I turned it on, you can actually put in any amount of time. I don’t remember, it was like from 10 minutes to 10 hours, something like that, where you can’t access the internet. Within two minutes when I was writing, I noticed my fingers going to the alt+tab to actually check my email and I realized just how often I got distracted, and I ended up buying the software, and it was the best purchase I ever made.  

[00:12:57] MB: That’s awesome. It’s funny, I think mobile devices obviously, which we don’t need to go down that rabbit hole, but is another massively addicting and distracting thing that we’ve talked a bunch about on the show. But coming back to this idea of kind of how sort of quiet and contemplative Sherlock Holmes is, one of the kind of recurrent themes that we’ve seen again and again on Science of Success is this idea of contemplative routines and how important it is to kind of step back from the constantly reactive nature of boom-boom-boom, email this, that. So many people making demands on your time, and even spending 10, 15 minutes once a week or once a day to step back and say, “What should I be doing? What should I be looking at? What should I be focusing on?” and how powerful that can be. 

[00:13:45] MK: Absolutely. Absolutely. Something that I started doing actually after writing this book was meditating every morning, not for long, for like 10 minutes. It’s absolutely huge. It’s a game-changer in terms of your clarity of thought, of your ability to concentrate, to make decisions. It really helps you harness your brain power for the rest of the day. I think that people who’ve never done it can’t quite appreciate. They think that it’s total bullshit. Until they try it. Because it sounds so crazy that 10 minutes a day can actually make such a big difference. 

But recapturing that quiet space in your mind can be so powerful, and I think that it’s something that at every single level people are forgetting to do. I wrote a piece a number of years ago about boredom. There was really some interesting research being done on what boredom actually is and the fact that people are more bored now than they have been in the past, even though it seems like you should never be bored, because there’s always something going on. 

Well, it ends up that boredom isn’t that there’s nothing to do. It’s that you’re attention isn’t engaging with any one thing. So the more distractions are around, the more you have your phone, the more you’re not forced to actually make choices, concentrate, do one thing. The less able you become to pay attention and the more easily bored you become, because your attention doesn’t engage with things in a meaningful way. I found that both fascinating and frightening.  

[00:15:18] MB: I was just reading, or just finished reading actually the book Mastery by Robert Greene, and one of the most interesting kind of takeaways – I don’t know if you’ve read it or not, but that he talks about in that book is this idea that to achieve master, it’s about kind of a deep encoding of whatever your mastering into the mind and into the subconscious. The only way that that kind of deep encoding work really happens is through focused attention over long period of time and long stretches of time, like years and years of focused attention. When we’re constantly distracted, that encoding like never happens. So we never end up building the sort of muscle memory and the subconscious processing power to really get towards mastery. 

[00:16:01] MK: Yeah, that’s absolutely right. I haven’t read the book, but I think that point is a very good one. I think it’s true not just of mastery, but let’s even go take it down a notch even if we’re not trying to master, but just trying to do anything, learn anything, absorb anything in the short term. I think it’s very easy to forget just how important engaging with it can be, because if you – Just think back. This is I think an experience that everyone has had. Think back to school, to like elementary school, or middle school, or high school. What do you actually remember from that? You remember the classes in which you were engaged and which you like the teacher, in which some book or some concept really spoke to you and you don’t remember anything else. 

Now, you might have been a straight A student and you did well in the moment, but your brain didn’t retain it because you weren’t really engaging with it. It was a much more surface process. But you’d be surprised at how much you actually remember from 10, 20 years ago just because you were engaged at the moment that you were learning it and that you actually played with the material. You were interested in the material. 

Actually bringing this back to Sherlock Holmes, one of the things that I think distinguishes him from a lot of other fictional characters, and I think is a key reason why he’s able to be so successful, is that he loves what he does. He has fun. So the common refrain, one of the most famous quotes from the book, “the game is afoot,” and that’s something that Sherlock Holmes says repeatedly about his cases, “the game is afoot.” It’s a game. It’s engaging. It’s interesting, and that’s one of the reasons that he’s able to do well and to keep learning and to succeed, because he actually sees it in that light. 

I think that’s a very powerful mental thing that we can do, is turn things around so that they do become more, again, like more interesting, more challenging so that we’re actually excited and engaged as supposed to, “Oh God! I can’t believe I have to do this, or I have to read this, or I have to look at that.” You’re going to have to do it anyway. You’re going to have to invest the time anyway. So why not make it something more meaningful? 

[00:18:14] MB: So how do we think about kind of creating that engagement or creating that sense of playfulness when we’re working on something? 

[00:18:23] MK: I think that it’s very specific to you and to what you’re working on and some things are obviously – They lend themselves to it much more easily. So if it’s actually for your job and you enjoy your job, well, then that should be pretty simple. If it’s something that’s mundane, but for a greater you know why you’re doing it, I think that’s key. Then you actually figure out ways to make it interesting and to actually psych yourself up about it, because it might be a very boring mundane thing, but you’re doing it in the cause of something much bigger, much more interesting, much more exciting. So you keep that thing in mind. You keep that ultimate goal in mind. Why are you doing it? You’re like, “Okay. How can I reframe this so that it’s no longer this boring thing, but now a piece of a much more interesting puzzle? Let me look at it as like one puzzle piece that’s essential. Without this puzzle piece, I can’t do this very interesting thing.” 

I think that there are lots of ways that you can reframe your approach, reframe your thought, reframe the task, reframe whatever it is to make it much more palatable. I think a very important litmus test is if you can’t do that if it’s actually like just absolutely impossible. You have no idea why you’re doing it. You have no idea what you’re doing. You don’t like it. You don’t see any purpose for it or whatsoever. Then you might want to rethink your job choices.  

[00:19:45] MB: I think that ties in many ways kind of back to the concept or the idea of flow. 

[00:19:50] MK: Mm-hmm. For sure. For sure. I actually in Mastermind wrote about flow, because I think it’s a concept that really applies to mindfulness and to the ability to concentrate, to the ability to do something well. It’s a state that we can achieve in a lot of different ways. I’m sure all of your listeners know what flow is, but just as a quick kind of refresher, it’s that feeling of being kind of at one and with your task and [inaudible 00:20:21] who created that concept, and I actually recommend his books on it. If you haven’t read them, he’s a very interesting writer and thinker. But it’s just being kind of really focused on what you’re doing to the point where it stops being separate from you. It becomes kind of this flow, this state of enjoyable activity. We can achieve it in so many different ways doing almost anything. 

I mean, there are some studies of people achieving flow doing just the most mundane, really crazy stuff. It’s not like you suddenly achieve it when you’re always, when you’re doing something creative, like playing the violin or doing something like that. So it’s actually more of a place in your mind than it is integral to the activity as such, if that makes sense. 

[00:21:12] MB: Absolutely. For listeners who want to dig in, we had a great interview that came out a couple of weeks ago with Steven Kotler from the Flow Genome Project that goes much deeper into that. But I want to come back to when we’re talking about, I think, this idea of sort of task switching and multitasking, when we look at how focused attention really helps kind of build the right muscles for thinking more effectively and how engagement is a key piece of that. I think this ties back in some ways, and you could probably elaborate on it much more intelligently than I can about this idea that you kind of call the brain attic, and how we sort of think about storing information and organizing knowledge in our heads. I’d love to dig into that concept and learn a little bit more about it. 

[00:21:58] MK: Yeah, absolutely. So I steal that concept directly from Arthur Conan Doyle. What Sherlock Holmes says in the books is that, basically, you carry this real estate with you always in your mind, your brain attic, and it’s his metaphor for memory. He has this exchange with Watson, because Watson always gets the short end of the deal in all of these exchanges. He says, “Watson, there are multiple types of attics. Yours is basically a lazy lumberjack’s attic. You just put God knows what up there. Obviously, I’m Sherlock Holmes, I have this wonderful pristine attic.” 

What does that actually mean? Well, it goes back to what we’ve been talking about, this idea of mindfulness and of focus. So if you think about your memory as a place, just think of it – Imagine an empty room, an empty attic in a new house and you can make a choice of how you’re going to use that space. You can be someone who’s really excited that you suddenly have an attic and you’ve never had an attic before. So now you never have to throw anything out. You can just throw it up all there and you’re never going to run out of room. 

What ends up happening – Well, first of all, you can’t find anything. Secondly, you do run out of room. Thirdly, you run out of room faster than your next door neighbor who has the same attic, but was using it more effectively, because you haven’t been optimizing how you store things, and it’s just one big mess. The files you do have up there get all jumbled up and messed up, and even when you find something, it might be wrong. 

So that’s actually kind of the default of how our memories are. If we don’t think about it, that’s the kind of attic we have, because we just kind of remember things as they stick. We don’t think about it and we don’t necessarily put a lot of thought into how we’re encoding them. 

What Sherlock Holmes is trying to tell Watson, and this actually very close to our current understanding of memory. Now, the brain attic is flawed in the sense that memory is much more malleable. It’s not actually kind of this hard, enclosed space. But taking that to the side from a moment, let’s imagine this is an expandable attic. 

What Sherlock Holmes says is, “Well, you need to be very careful. You need to be mindful of every piece of information that goes up there, because it’s not infinite, and you not only have to be aware of what you’re putting up there, but you have to be aware of where you’re putting it,” because any information you remember is only going to be useful to you in so far as you can retrieve it. Imagine yourself sitting in school taking a test and there’s a question and you say, “Oh! I knew that. I know that. Oh God! I definitely studied that.” 

Well, if you don’t actually remember it at that moment, it’s useless to you. You’re going to get a zero for that question. That’s the essence of why you need to store things properly. You need to be able to retrieve them when you need them. Otherwise they may as well not exist.  

So a few things about kind of what you can do to make your brain attic most effective. Number one is encoding. So the moment that we have the most control over our memories and over how well they’ll be stored is the moment of encoding, the moment where we first remember it. 

So some things will never get encoded, because even though we experienced it, we didn’t pay attention and it’s actually not in our memories and we’re not going to be able to retrieve it later on. Actually, often times people get into a lot of trouble. There have been court cases with this where while you were there, how can you not remember? You must be lying. Actually no, they’re not. They just weren’t paying attention. They never encoded that memory. They were there, but they don’t remember. 

So you have to make sure you have to make the conscious choice to say, “Okay. I want to remember this. Let’s encode it into my mind. Now, how am I going to encode it?” Well, you want to do it in a way that’s most effective and space efficient. So our memories are strongest the more we can associate them with things that are already in our memories. 

So thematically, if it’s related to some of the concepts we know, if we’re with people with whom we share other memories, if we’re in a space where we’ve shared other memories. If there are sounds, if there are smells. Basically anything you can do to help encode that piece of information, use it, and tag that memory as much as you can. Cross tag it, cross reference it, because every single one of those tags, every single point of encoding will later be a point of retrieval. 

So even if you forget three of the tags, as long you’re number one, you’ll be totally fine and you’ll be able to retrieve that memory. So that’s kind of that’s your efficient attic. That’s the one where you actually care about everything that goes in and you care about how it goes in so that when the moment comes, you can take it out intact and use it. 

[SPONSOR BREAK]

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[INTERVIEW CONTINUED]

[00:28:48] MB: I want to dig into a couple of different piece of this, because I think this whole approach of kind of conceiving of your brain in that way and the idea that only things that we actually can remember and retrieve at the right time are sort of relevant or useful. I think that really kind of harkens back to the Charlie Monger kind of mental models approach to the world, which I’m a huge fan of, and we talk all about on the show constantly is this idea that you have to kind of array knowledge in your brain around sort of useful semantic trees so that you can connect different pieces of information and understand the world more cohesively. 

But it also comes back to, and we’ve had a number of interviews where we talk about the power of visual memory and pneumonic techniques and all of these kind of strategies for encoding that are incredibly powerful. Specifically, I’d love to dig in to one of the things that Sherlock Holmes talks about, and I know you kind of write about, which is how we can bring multiple kind of senses into the encoding process and how useful that can be.  

[00:29:50] MK: Absolutely. So I kind of started mentioning that when I was talking about encoding things into your brain attic. But we tend to really ignore most of our senses at any given moment. So when we’re encoding a memory, we’ll encode the primary memory. So if we, for instance, want to remember what happened, we’ll just use our eyes. If we want to remember going to a concert, we’re just going to use our ears, and that’s incredibly wrong because we have a lot of different ways that memories are becoming a part of us. The more we can engage our senses and the more we can actually actively engage with our sense while we’re forming the memories, the more powerful that memory is going to be. The easier it’s going to be to remember. The more vivid it’s going to be and the easier it’s going to be to recall. 

So, for instance, we’ve known for a very long time, and writers have written about it. Everyone, even people who have no idea who Marcel Proust is, know about Proust’s madeleine is, that’s smell is an incredibly powerful ways to evoke memory. One of the reasons is that it’s actually connected to the emotional part of the brain. There’s a direct connection there and a way that there isn’t for other senses. 

So knowing that, if you’re actually trying to remember something, it doesn’t have to be bout food. It doesn’t have to have anything to do with smell as such, but try to remember what the smells were at the moment. Going back to your studying for a test, or you’re trying to remember something, you’re going to give a really important presentation at work, but you need to memorize it. So you’re really trying to kind of remember what’s going on. Well, maybe you’re doing it at a café. Breath in. Try to figure out what are the smells around here. Try to associate with a different sense. Hey, if you’re going to associate it with the small of coffee, awesome, because there’s probably going to be coffee at your meeting. Try to get the exact same blend to get the stuff going in your mind. 

Listen. What’s the music playing in the background? Do you have any other associations with this music? I’m sure you’ve experienced this feeling where suddenly a song comes on the radio that is from the summer you were 13-years-old and all of a sudden you have all of these memories coming back that you didn’t consciously try to remember. That’s huge. Why don’t we use that actually to our advantage knowing that? 

So listen and actually try to associate the sounds with it. Obviously, we look all the time. So that’s something that we’ll do probably anyway, but if you do it more consciously and if you actually try to notice the colors and actually really try to look in an almost meditative way, that will help you. I will often remember things because I could remember exactly where it was on the page on the table what I was doing and when I can actually picture it in my mind. It helps me retrieve that information. 

Use the sense of touch. Use your posture. Where are you sitting? What are you feeling? What are kind of the textures around you? Actually just fully engage with the moment and then try to use those senses as ways to make the memory more tangible, bigger, more three-dimensional even if it’s something really stupid, like memorizing what I’m going to say on this slide of a really boring Power Point. It can make it much easier for you to then know exactly what you’re saying, and it will be more interesting, because you will have spent the time actually  truly encoding it into your brain as supposed to just trying to rote memorize it. 

I think we really underuse that sensory approach. That said, it’s actually – This takes time. So I’m not recommending doing this at every moment of everyday for every memory. That’s going to be overwhelming. So you have to pick and choose. You have to be kind of mindful. You have to be picky and you have to figure out what’s actually worth remembering. What do I want to spend the energy on encoding and go from there.  

[00:33:58] MB: We’re going to throw some resources in the show notes for listeners who want to dig more into those strategies as well, because these techniques are so powerful if you get into the visual memory techniques that you can use to encode things. I mean, I still remember numbers that I’ve encoded using visual methods like six months ago that I’ve never thought about, and if I think about the kind of mental, like the mental image, or the memory palace that I created for it, it’s amazing. 

[00:34:23] MK: For sure. 

[00:34:24] MB: There’s so much more I want to talk about, and so I want to kind of change gears completely. The thing that we haven’t even gotten into  yet, which is truly fascinating to me, is that you started out as a psychology PhD, a writer, all these stuff, and yet now you sort of find yourself – And correct me if I’m sort of mischaracterizing this, but you’re not a professional poker player. Is that correct?

[00:34:47] MK: That is correct. It is in service of writing. So my next book is going to be more memoristic about my journey into the world of professional poker. I took a poker for this book, and I ended up – I didn’t know that if I was going to be good, if I was going to enjoy it. I didn’t know anything about poker, and it not only drew me in, but it ended up that I was able to do well in it. So right now, the book ended up getting pushed back a little bit. Yes, I’m playing fulltime. 

[00:35:25] MB: I think that’s amazing, and I want to dig into a number of kind of pieces of that story. How did you – Or sort of what kind of drew you in to the game of poker as somebody who studied thinking and psychology and human behavior and decision making. Once you kind of got in and started playing, what really drew you into it and make you more fascinated with it?

[00:35:46] MK: When I was in grad school, my main focus was on decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty and under hot or emotional conditions. So my advisor was Walter Mischel, who created in the 1960s the famous marshmallow test of self-control. So I was interested in self-control and in kind of how all of these things interact in environments where we don’t have a lot of information, where there’s a lot of uncertainty and where we’re really stressed, where we’re feeling under a lot of emotional pressure. 

Anyone who studies those sorts of things will find very quickly that while human beings are incredibly smart and normally are very good at making decisions in some environments, that breaks down a lot when it comes to uncertainty, when it comes to kind of probabilistic thinking, when it comes to emotional decisions. Right away you start seeing biases. You start seeing people kind of go wrong and start making mistakes. 

Daniel Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize for this work was kind of the first one to really publicize it, which is basically how our minds go wrong, all of the different biases and heuristics that we use in making decisions. That’s what you see over and over and over. 

What you don’t see nearly as much is, “Okay. Well, how in the world do I correct this?” Normally I’m right, and a lot of times these biases are there for a reason and they serve us well. But in these uncertain situations, when I’m emotional, when these biases really kick into high gear, how do I get over that? The answer is it’s really, really difficult. You can teach people all about these biases and they still have them and they still make these mistakes. 

So what I realized when I got into poker was that poker is actually a way to teach your mind to think in the right ways and you do it over and over in a controlled environment through experience, which actually is incredibly helpful for actually teaching your mind to think in that way. So I think poker players understand probability in a way that most people don’t. They understand variance in a way that most people don’t. They understand uncertainty and risk in a way that most people don’t. 

So it’s a very interesting confluence of ideas, where on the one side I’ve side I’ve studied all of these biases, and so I have a deep understanding of what’s going wrong. Then now I have this laboratory, if you will, to explore all of them and to kind of go deeper into my own brain and see what I can learn from a game that actually tackles them if you want to be good at it head on. 

[00:38:46] MB: I couldn’t agree more, and that’s why I love the game of poker so much. It’s just such a fascinating. I think the term laboratory is great. It’s such a fascinating laboratory for teaching yourself not only this kind of really important mathematical concepts, decision making concepts and really a huge array of kind of emotional concepts as well that are really important to thriving and succeeding at anything that you do in life. 

[00:39:12] MK: For sure. For sure. It’s one of these things that – So you’ve been a poker player for a while, but I’m someone who totally came from the outside. So, for me, it just kind of hit me over the head all of a sudden, and I think that that is part of the fascination, because I had no idea what I was getting into. I’m like, “Oh my God! Wow! This is so much better than I ever thought it could be.” It teaches me so much about myself and about my shortcomings, things that I didn’t know existed. 

It’s one of these games that is infinitely complex. So it’s not like suddenly you’re like, “Okay. I understand poker. I understand statistics. I understand this. I’m done.” If keeps evolving and changing, because you are playing people. You are playing situations. So you’re playing human dynamics, and those keep evolving. As people strategy evolves, your strategy has to evolve. So as a metaphor for life, it basically doesn’t get any better than that.  

[00:40:10] MB: So you touched on this a second ago, but as somebody who’s a longtime poker player, obviously – And I’m sure you get this question all the time, but it’s amazing to see someone who – I think, what? Two, three years ago, you never played poker and now you’ve become a professional. What enabled you? We talked earlier about kind of dabbled into this idea of mastery. What enabled you to excel so rapidly in the game of poker? 

[00:40:37] MK: Well, I think it’s a lot of things. First, I was incredibly lucky that I was able to gain access to some of the best players in the world. So my coach and mentor is Eric Seidel, who I think is one of the best players of all time, if not the best player of all time if you look at historically the fact that he’s been winning and kind of at the top of the game since the 1980s. No one else has been able to replicate that. 

So having a mentor who is such a force in the game is crucial, because you can learn from that. You can really absorb it, and I’m someone who definitely loves to learn. So I’m very happy. I’ve been a writer my whole life – Well, my whole professional life. I’m very comfortable saying I have no idea what’s going on. Teach me. Help me. So I love learning from people who are very, very good. So I was very lucky that he was involved and that he introduced me to some other incredible poker players who’ve been incredibly helpful along the way. That’s one of the things. 

But the other part is that I do love learning and I’m willing to study and to put in massive hours. So sometimes when people ask me kind of what I do, they don’t really believe it, and they say, “Oh, well.” Or even if they believe it they’re like, “Oh, but that’s crazy.” Really tell me how to be good without having to do this. 

So basically I’m studying and working like 9, 10 hours a day every single day. I fully immerse myself in the world of poker. So when I’m not playing, I’m either reading, or analyzing hands, or watching streams, pausing them, taking notes, trying to figure out people’s strategy, trying to talk to people about strategies. So I’m always doing something to work on my game. I think that a lot of people don’t really want to do that. They want to play poker because they see it as “easy”, and I think it’s the polar opposite of that. It’s a very, very hard way to make a living, and good poker players understand that. There’s no easy money. 

So, for me, it’s just been a fully immersive fulltime job of learning and constantly trying to improve. I think being willing – I think you always have to be willing to put in the hours and to realize that there are no shortcuts ever. 

So it’s the same with writing. When people ask me, “Oh, I want to get published in the New Yorker too. How do I do that?” I say, “Well, I’ve been writing fulltime for over 10 years before I got my first piece published in the New York.” They’re like, “Oh, but I don’t want to do that.” I’m like, “Well, I’m sorry. There’s no magic bullet. That’s what you have to do, and that’s not the answer a lot of people want to hear. 

[00:43:36] MB: It such an important point and a theme that comes up again and again on the show as well. Even coming back to this, kind of the book Mastery by Robert Greene, like he has a quote in that book that’s if you’re – I’m sort of paraphrasing it, but it’s basically, “If you’re looking for a shortcut, then you are unsuited for the pursuit of mastery.”

[00:43:56] MK: Yes, I think that’s a very good way of putting it. I have nothing to add. 

[00:44:02] MB: I think also this idea of kind of, as what I would call sort of beginner’s mind, which is this notion of setting your ego aside. Being willing to learn, being willing to ask what might be sort of dumb or embarrassing questions. Kind of putting yourself out there and just saying, “Hey, I don’t know, and I just want to learn.” I think so many people get kind of tripped up on the ego side of it and never really fully embrace that, which is such a core component of learning.

[00:44:28] MK: For sure. For sure. I think actually in poker, that’s more true than it is in a lot of other places, because poker is such an ego-driven boys club. I mean, there are hardly any women in it in any given tournament. If it’s kind of a big well-known tournament, it will be about 3% of the field if you’re lucky. So it’s not a lot at all. That’s actually up. So before, it used to be – Sometimes we would be 0% of the field. When you have so much kind of male ego, when you have so much testosterone, when it’s always been kind of a boys club, in those environments it can be very difficult to put aside kind of that ego to realize, “Okay, there are a lots of people who are much better than I am.” 

To be fair, I think the best – These days, the best male poker players are absolutely willing to do that and are among the smartest, most studious people I’ve ever met. They work their asses of and they work hard and they’re working with lots of software. They’re really, really trying to understand the game in an incredibly deep level, and I think that’s amazing. 

[00:45:41] MB: So what would be kind of one piece of homework or sort of actionable advice that you would give to listeners who want to kind of concretely implement some of the ideas and concepts that we’ve talked about today? 

[00:45:53] MK: The one concrete piece of advice that I would say, and this is the one habit that we’ve already talked about that I’ve changed, but I actually think that it’s the single most important thing that you can do is have a 10-minute  a day meditation. Everyone has 10 minutes. I don’t care how busy you are. I don’t care how much you have going on. You have 10 minutes, because it doesn’t actually matter what is going on around you. That’s the beauty of this. It can be incredibly allowed [inaudible 00:46:22]. You could be a mother or a father with like five kids running around. As long as there’s someone else keeping an eye on them for the 10 minutes that you have your eyes closed that they’re not going to kill themselves, you don’t care that all of these things are happening. 

Because the point is to kind of admit all of the distractions that are happening and then to let go of them. So it’s not like you need to sit in a quiet place. It’s not like you need to lie down. You can be standing. You can be sitting. You can be anywhere. It’s just this ability to do a 10-minute exercise where you just focus on your breath or whatever kind of meditation you want to do. 

I just happen to do mindfulness meditation and to really train your brain to acknowledge distractions. Let them go and go back to the moment and to force yourself to do it for the full amount of time. So you can set a timer on your phone. There are a lot of apps that you can use. I think that it’s something that can be really difficult at first. But if you can actually implement that one habit, it can really be life-changing in your ability to concentrate to make good decisions, to pay attention.  

[00:47:35] MB: For listeners who want to dig in, learn more, find you and your work online, what’s the best place for them to do that? 

[00:47:41] MK: I am on Twitter @mkonnikova, where I tweet a lot of stuff. I’m on Instagram @grlnamedmaria, except girl doesn’t have an I in it, because I was late to Instagram and there’s already a girlnamedmaria with an I in it. So I’m a misspelled girlnamedmaria. I have a website, mariakonnikova.com, that I unfortunately don’t update nearly as often as I should, and I have Facebook @mariakonnikova, but I also don’t love Facebook. So I’m not on there as much as I am on the other platforms.

[00:48:14] MB: Well, Maria, thank you so much for coming on the show, sharing your incredible journey and all of the wisdom that’s come along with. It’s been great to have you here. 

[00:48:23] MK: Thank you so much for having me, Matt. It’s been a pleasure. 

[END OF INTERVIEW]

[00:48:26] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you our listeners master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an e-mail. My e-mail is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener e-mail.

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September 06, 2018 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making
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Making Smart Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts with Annie Duke

July 19, 2018 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making

In this episode we discuss how to make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty. We look at “the worst call in the history of football,” discuss examples from life, business and even high stakes poker to understand how to make the best possible decisions in a a world filled with unknowns. What exactly is a good decision? Is that different than a good outcome? We look at this key question - and uncover the wisdom hidden in the reality that these two things might be completely different. All this and more with our guest Annie Duke. 

Annie is a professional decision strategists and former professional poker player. She has leveraged her expertise in the science of smart decision making throughout her life and for two decades was one of the top poker players in the world. She is the author of the book Thinking In Bets: Making Smart Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts and after being granted the National Science Foundation Fellowship, studied Cognitive Psychology at The University of Pennsylvania.

  • How do we get create lessons from our experiences?

  • How do we sort out the noise in the gap between decision quality and outcome quality?

  • In poker (like life) you can make really good decision and have a really bad outcome - but that doesn’t mean that you made a bad decision

  • This fuzzy relationship between decision making and outcomes can be very problematic for people 

  • “Resulting”- tying the quality of the outcome too tightly to the quality of decisions

  • “The worst call in the history of all of football” - But what it really?

  • An unlucky / bad outcome is not the same as a bad decision

  • You get emotionally pulled around in evaluating the quality of your decisions based, usually, on the quality of the outcome

  • Red lights and green lights - and how they can shine a light on hidden risks to decision-making

  • The only thing that matters is not the result - but the process  of making decisions - because that is all we can control

  • In our own lives we constantly lurch into over-reactions when we focus only on results and not on our decision-making quality

  • Improving your decision-making accrues across your life through everything you do and harnesses the principle of compounding - a small improvement in decision-making & thinking cascades through everything you do

  • Strategy #1: Approach the world through the frame of decisions as bets

  • Why you should ask “Wanna Bet?” to get more clarity about a situation

  • There are 2 major sources of uncertainty between Decisions and Outcomes

  • Luck/Randomness

    1. Information Asymmetry

  • The framework of “wanna bet” creates a hunger for information and a desire to narrow down / reduce uncertainty

  • Strategy #2: Get other people involved in the process with you

  • You are really good at recognizing other people’s bias, even when you can’t see your own

  • When you’re trying to make a decision (or a bet) the person who will win is the person who has the most accurate “mental model” or model of reality

  • Its about trying to get the most accurate mental models and get to the truth - not just trying to prove that you’re right

  • What we care about is being ACCURATE not being proven RIGHT

  • It feels good to be right and it feels bad to be wrong - the key to this shift is to CHANGE what you feel good about - don’t feel good about being right - feel good about moving towards the Truth

  • When you ask “how sure am I about this?” You’re rarely 100% or 0% sure about this

  • Strategy #3: Try to quarantine yourself from experience

  • Escape the quality of the outcome and how it impacts your assessment - unless you have enough data to actually verify it 

  • Key Steps to Focusing on the Decision-Making Process Not the Outcome

  • Evaluate decisions prior to getting the outcome

    1. Create a Decision Pod of other people who can challenge your thinking

  • How do we make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty?

  • What does it mean to think in “Expected Value?"

  • Most times the future is not 100% to turn out a certain way - there are a variety of outcomes - and each of those outcomes has a probability of occurring and each outcome has an impact 

  • The key to making effective decisions is to multiply the probability of the outcome by the impact/magnitude 

  • Being “roughly right” is better than being “precisely wrong"

  • Its OK to guess and use rough probabilities when thinking probabilistically - you will still make MUCH better decisions

  • Doing the work of improving decision-making creates large positive results and is a self fulfilling cycle

  • The opinions that are most valuable to you are the ones that disagree with you - they can actually teach you something

  • Homework #1: find a group of people who are open minded, who want to be better decision-makers, and agree together that you want to question each others thinking, not be defensive, hold each other accountable to bias

  • Homework #2: Start listening to yourself for signals that you might be engaging in biased behavior, using the words wrong/right, should of

  • Homework #3: Discuss a decision with 2 different people and give them opposite “outcomes” (Tell one it went really well, tell the other it went really poorly) to get clear sense of different sides of the coin

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Show Notes, Links, & Research

  • [Video] Butler picks off Wilson to seal Patriots Super Bowl XLIX victory

  • [Video] Philadelphia Eagles: Philly Special

  • [Article] A Head Coach Botched The End Of The Super Bowl, And It Wasn’t Pete Carroll By Benjamin Morris

  • [Article] Fooled by performance randomness: over-rewarding luck by Romain Gauriot and Lionel Page

  • [Book] Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke

  • [SoS Episode] The Biggest Threat Humans Face in 2018

  • [Personal Site] Annie Duke

Episode Transcript


[00:00:19.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:12.0] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than 2 million downloads, listeners in over a hundred countries and part of the Self-Help for Smart People Podcast Network.

In this episode we discussed how to make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty. We look at the worst call in the history of football. Discuss examples from life, business, and even high stakes poker to understand how to make the best possible decision in a world filled with unknowns. 

What exactly is a good decision? Is that different than a good outcome? We look at this key question and uncover the wisdom hidden in the reality that these two things might just be completely different. All this and more with our guest, Annie Duke. 

Do you need more time, time for work time for thinking and reading? Time for the people in your life? Time to accomplish your goals? This was the number one problem our listeners outlined and we created a new video guide that you can get completely for free when you sign up and join our email list. It's called How You Can Create Time for the Things That Really Matter in Life. You can get it completely for free when you sign up and join the email list at successpodcast.com. You're also going to get exclusive content that's only available to our email subscribers. 

We recently pre-released an episode and the interview to our email subscribers a week before it went live to our broader audience, and that had tremendous implications because there is a limited offer in there with only 50 available spots that got eaten up by the people who were on the email list first. 
With that same interview, we also offered an exclusive opportunity for people on our email list to engage one-on-one for over an hour with one of our guests in a live exclusive interview just for email subscribers. 

There are some amazing stuff that's available only to email subscribers that's only going on if you subscribe and sign up to the email list. You can do that by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the homepage, or if you're driving around right now, if you're out and about and you’re on the go you and you don't have time, just text the word “smarter” to the number 44222. That's S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44222. 

In our previous episode, we went deep on the science of personality. We looked at how we've moved way beyond the debate of nature versus nurture. Examine the myth of authenticity and the danger of just being yourself and why human well-being, a.k.a. success, depends on the sustainable pursuit of core projects in our lives. 

We explore the complex dance of self-improvement between the limitation of biological social factors and the identity of individuals and looked at how much agency and control we really have in shaping our personalities and lives among all these different factors with our guest, Dr. Brian Little. If you want to really understand yourself and how to live a better life, listen to that episode. 

Now, for our interview with Annie. 

[0:03:10.6] MB: Today, we have another unique guest on the show, Annie Duke. Annie is a professional decision strategist and former professional poker player. She's leveraged her expertise in the science of smart decision-making throughout her life and for two decades she’s one of the top poker players in the world. She’s the author of the book Thinking in Bets: Making Smart Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, and after being granted the National Science Foundation Fellowship, she studied cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. 

Annie, welcome to The Science of Success. 

[0:03:40.3] AD: Thanks for having me. 

[0:03:41.8] MB: Well, we’re ere very excited to have you on the show today. As we kind of talked about in the preshow a little bit, I am a poker player so I’m familiar with you and some of your work, and I think the decision-making, sort of thinking methodology that poker teaches is so valuable and so sort of applicable to a broader kind of sphere of life. 

So I’d love to start out with kind of this idea that you talk about, which is sort of the difference between bad decisions and bad outcomes. 

[0:04:06.4] AD: Yeah. Sure. So I think that one of the big problems that we have in life is trying to figure out the lessons that we’re supposed to take from the way that things turn out. So we have this idea that you should be learning from experience, but that’s actually really difficult because there are a lot of playing in the way that your outcomes relate to the actual quality of the decisions to lead up to them. 

So this very loose relationship between outcome quality and decision quality which you can see really well in poker, right? I can play the best hand and I can actually play it very well. On the turn of a card, because I don't have any control over the cards that come, I can lose. So I can make really good decision and have a very poor outcome, or I can play a really bad hand. Actually play it pretty poorly, and because I get lucky in the cards that are still to come, I could actually win. So I can make really poor decision and have a really good outcome. 

And this lose relationship actually creates a lot of problems for us, and what you see people do is that when they’re evaluating outcomes out in the world, they tend to do this thing called resulting when they're looking at other people's results. What resulting is, is tying too tightly the quality and the outcome to the quality of the decision. In other words, thinking that it's a reasonable thing for you to be able to work backwards from whether the outcome was good or bad to whether the decision was good or bad. In other words, thinking like if I win a hand of poker, I must have played it well, or you lose a hand of poker, you must have played it poorly. 

So if you want me to, there’s a really, really good example of that that I actually opened the book about Pete Carroll and the Super Bowl, if you want to go into that as an example. 

[0:06:00.9] MB: Yeah, I’d love to hear that example and dig into it. 

[0:06:03.2] AD: Okay. Then, actually, I just posted today on Twitter about a very good example of that that we could get into that’s like brand-new research. So I think that might be fun to look just really quickly. So let me give you that sort of popular sports example of resulting. 

So it’s the 2015 Super Bowl, Super Bowl XLIX, and the Seahawks are on the 1 yard line of the New England Patriots. It’s second down on the 1 yard line, 26 seconds left in the whole game, and the Seahawks are down by four and they have one time out. 

So, obviously, if the Seahawks can score here with a touchdown, they’re going to win the game, because there’s not going to be time for the Patriots to be able to march back out on the field. So everybody is expecting, because it’s second down and they’ve got the one timeout. So everybody is thinking, “Okay. They're going to hand it out to Marshawn Lynch, who’s one of the best short-yardage running backs in the history of the game and he’ll obviously just try to barrel through the Patriots line. Then if he can't do that, Pete Carroll will call a timeout. They’ll hand it off to Marshawn Lynch again and give him two tries at the end zone. 

So that’s what everybody kind of thinks is going to happen, and instead, what Pete Carroll does is something pretty surprising, which is he calls for a pass play. So he has Russell Wilson pass the ball. The ball is very famously intercepted in the end zone by Malcolm Butler. Obviously, that ends the game. 

It’s really interesting, people can go on to YouTube and they can see the clip from the actual game, and I really recommend that you listen to Cris Collinsworth actually call this play. So after the ball is intercepted – I mean, Cris Collinsworth is just flabbergasted and saying this is the worst call that he’s ever seen in the Super Bowl, and the headlines the next day didn't disagree. Most of them declared USA Today, The New York Times, The Washington Post, they were all saying this was the worst call in Super Bowl history. The Seattle Times actually, which I think has more skin in the game said it was the worst call in the history of all of football. 

So the question is; was this really a bad call? We know the really bad result for sure. It was a very, very bad outcome. But it wasn’t a bad call. Well, Pete Carroll was asked about it actually on The Today’s Show, and I think they were trying to get him to say that it was a really bad call, and what he said instead was, “Well, I agree that it was the worst result of a call ever.” 

I think that that’s an incredibly insightful comment by Pete Carroll, because when you actually look at the map, and you can do this by – you could look at Benjamin Morris over on 538 have pretty good analysis of this. Also, Brian Butler, I think over on Slate analyzed it as well, that the map actually looks pretty good for doing a pass play.

I think the key piece of information to note is that if you look at the 2015 season, the number of intersections in that situation were zero. It’s probably too small of an end. But if you look over the past 15 season, which I think is generously aggregating the data, because covered has changed, but let's just go over the last 15 seasons just to get a lot of data, then the intersection rate in that spot was only 2%. 

The interception rate in that situation is going to be somewhere between 0 and 2%, depending on what data you pull. I think once you know that, it's a little bit easier to recognize that it was probably just a really unlucky outcome and not necessarily a really bad decision, that it was just an unlucky bad outcome. I think that it's pretty easy to get there once you kind of imagine that Pete Carroll called that pass play and the ball was caught for a touchdown. What do you think the headlines could have looked like? 

[0:09:57.6] MB: Probably most genius play in Super Bowl history. 

[0:10:00.0] AD: Yeah. I mean, I think that they would've been loud and this is the kind of thinking that got him to the Super Bowl in the first place. You could imagine that, right? He out-Belichicked Belichick, who’s known as a pretty creative coach. 

We actually have an interesting example of this now, which is the Philly special. So for people who are familiar with this year's Super Bowl, the Philadelphia Eagles on fourth down on the 1 yard line of, again, the Patriots who are in the Super Bowl every year as we know. They’re up by three, the Eagles, and everybody is expecting Doug Peterson to call for a field goal and just take the easy three and go up by by six going into the second half 

Instead, he goes for it — not only goes for it on fourth, but runs a very unusual play called the Philly special, and Nick Foles, the quarterback ends up in the end zone catching the ball. Everybody talks about how it’s an incredibly brilliant play. But if it had gotten dropped and the Eagle had actually lost that game, you know that that’s exactly where people would've been looking and talking about what a stupid decision it was by Doug Peterson not just to take the three points. 

Hopefully what you can feel from those example is how much we emotionally get pulled around in the way that we evaluate the quality of our decisions based just on the quality of the outcome. Because, obviously, whether that ball is caught or dropped on that one time in the end zone by the Seahawks does not have anything to do with whether the decision was good. 

In the same sense, if I go through a green light and I happen to get in an accident, that doesn’t mean that going through green lights is a bad decision. If I run a red light and I happen to get through it safely, it doesn't mean that running red lights is a good decision either. It’s the same thing for Pete Carroll there, and this is a really, really, really big problem for decision-making, is that when we’re trying to learn from our experience, we get so hung up on whether things turned out well or things turned out poorly in terms of whether we repeat the decision or change the way that we’re doing things. We end up with these weird reactions to the way that things turn out, and if we can't get past that and if we can't get past resulting, it becomes very hard to become effective at learning. 

[0:12:22.3] MB: It’s such a great example, and I love the idea of kind of the stoplights, because that really crystallizes it I think really clearly. As somebody who you know plays poker, obviously, like a suck out is a great example of something like that. But for so many people, even a lot of people you see at the poker table, they get so focused on the result of the hand as supposed to kind of what the decision-making process was and how the kind of went into it. 

So I think pulling it out and providing some context in sports and with other examples is a great way to shine light on the fact that it's so easy to get caught up in the result, and yet what really matters, because the only thing we can actually control is how do we make better decisions. 

[0:13:00.7] AD: Yes. So there’re been a couple of articles that have come out recently that are looking at this by really good economists and behavioral scientists. So one was looking at – And this is where you can see how these overreactions and under reactions can be really, really devastating based on a single result. 

So they were looking at the NBA. One group of researchers was looking at the NBA and they were looking at cases where the team one by one point or lost by one point. So I imagine you would agree with me that winning by one point or losing by one point is really mainly a matter of luck, that there's probably no difference in the level of player, the decision-making that goes into a one point win or a one point lost. That’s just variance. I mean, I assume we can just agree on that. 

What they looked at with lineup changes, and what they found was that you were much, much more likely to get a lineup change after a one point loss than you were after a one point win. Of course, in reality, there should be no difference between those two. So what you're getting is this big overreaction to a one point loss, which is just based on the quality of the outcome feeling like you need to change something now. But you're not getting that same reaction to a one point win even though statistically those would be the same. 

Then, actually, there was a paper that I was just looking at today from probably going to butcher his name, but Spyros Makridakis, and what he was looking at, he created a situation. This was where he was giving people data to evaluate. So it’s quasi-experimental. So he was looking at how good agents were in soccer and evaluating talent, and it was a close misses for kicks. So where they either hit the post or it just went in. 

Again, these are going to be a matter of luck, b you're very close to the post. What they found was that agents were much more likely to view the player is talented when it just went in versus when it hit the post, and that's very similar to the NBA situation. 

So these are cases where we know that the determining factor is mainly luck, and yet people are acting as if the outcome of the big signal for scale. In our own lives, we see this all the time. When in our business lives or our personal lives we have a bad outcome, we go and look for things that we can change. We think, “Oh! I need to change something because I bad outcome. So I need to change strategy,” and you get these very big overreactions to them. Then went things are going well we think we’re supposed to rinse and repeat, and we don't recognize that just that we should probably be patting ourselves on the back less, because good outcomes can always going to have some luck element to them, and sometimes very big luck element to them. We should also probably be changing strategy and recriminating ourselves less when we have poor outcomes as well. 

[0:15:55.6] MB: So how do we start to combat that kind of emotional reaction or that kind of natural kind of gut reaction to think about the result, as supposed to pulling back and evaluating the process?

[0:16:09.3] AD: I'm really glad that you asked that question, because that’s a really big – Okay. So here's the situation. There's a lot of noise. We know that our brains work this way. We know that we naturally try to make these connections. So my answer to you is not, well, now that you’ve learned about it, you’re fine. That's not actually very helpful. 

So that’s the first thing, is that with any of these cognitive biases, having knowledge about the bias is not necessarily that helpful and it's really just because this is the way our brains work, like we’re just sort of built with them and we can't take our brains offline and install new software. Like here we are. 

So first let me give you the good news, which is that very small changes can have very big impact. So you don't need to get that much better at this in order to have a big impact on what the quality of the outcome over your lifetime are going to be, because it acts like a compounding interest. So if you can get a few percentage points better at being more rational and evaluating your outcomes, for example, or overcoming confirmation bias, or not succumbing to hindsight bias, whatever it might be, you’re going to do a lot better in life. So that’s the good news. 

Let me give you some hints about how to kind of deal with this. So hint number one is to think about – To sort of approach the world to in the frame of want to bet. So, really, to think about would I be willing to bet that this is why this happened. So, for example, with the Pete Carroll thing, if you said, “Oh! I can't believe that that was the worst decision in Super Bowl history,” and I said, “Well, do you want to bet on that?” What would happen to you when I challenged you to that question?

[0:17:50.0] MB: Yeah, that’s really interesting. I mean, I think you start to – At least the way I would think about it is start evaluating other decisions. Start looking at the probabilities of different outcomes happening and that kind of stuff. Then it gets – You start to think much more objectively and kind of quantitatively about it. 

[0:18:05.0] AD: Right. Because what that does, what that want to bet does is it causes the uncertainty to bubble up to the surface. So if we think about why is it that outcomes and decision, like that relationship is hard to evaluate, there’s two sources of uncertainty that cause that to be hard to evaluate. The first is lot, which we’ve discussed about, that there's just a lot of luck in the way that things turn out. The second is information asymmetry or hidden information. That we don't know what Pete Carroll knows, for example, when we’re trying to evaluate that. We don't know what coverages he saw, what kind of things he had practiced. 

In fact, when we’re actually watching that, it's not like we’re living in the matrix and we can see those percentages or the decision tree right in front of us. We don't know the map either. So we’re sort of guessing at it. 

So when I challenge you to want to bet, what it does is it reminds you that while you might have been so certain about what the connection about the quality of that outcome and the quality of the decision work, that there is, of course, uncertainty there from hidden information and luck. When I say want to bet, what it does is it spurs you to start trying to examine the uncertainty. So it causes the uncertainty to bubble up to the surface in a really good way and you start asking yourself questions like, “Well, why do I think this? What research have I done? What's the math? What are the real probabilities? What does Annie that I don’t know? Why is she challenging me to this bet?” So it causes you to think about what my perspectives might be, which is really important. Because one of the best ways to be a decision-maker is not just to imagine things from your perspective, but try to imagine things from other people's perspective. That’s naturally because other people's perspective offers valuable insights that you might not yourself have. So you start to question what my knowledge might be. 

All of these causes you to be very, very information hungry, because once I say want to bet and you acknowledge the uncertainty, because I’ve caused the uncertainty to come to the forefront, now what you want to do is start to narrow down the uncertainty, to reduce uncertainty. In order to do that, you have to start seeking out information and thinking about things from different perspectives. So that the first step, is to really recognize this probabilistic relationship and to try to ask yourself as much as possible, like, “Would I be willing to bet on this?” Because that allows that to come through. 

But, remember, I said to you. It’s hard for us to get around our brains working this way. So the second thing that is really, really helpful is to get other people involved in the process with you. That’s because I think that in your own life you’ve probably noticed that you’re probably pretty good at recognizing when other people are bias, like what other people's biases are. Even if we’re not so good at recognizing it ourselves, we seem to kind of have a clearer view of when other people are maybe engaging in biased thinking. 

So we can use that to our advantage and we can get some people together and say, “Listen. I’m going to watch your back and you're going to watch my back.” But the key is that you want to do it through this idea of we’re going to approach the world through thinking and bets. What that means is that we’re going to approach the world through the frame of trying to be accurate, versus trying to be right. 

So let me explain what the difference between those two things are. So if we’re engaging in betting, the person who’s going win is the person who has the most accurate representation of the objective truth. I assume you agree with that. 

[0:21:37.9] MB: Absolutely. 

[0:21:39.0] AD: Right. So that's what I mean by accurate, that you're trying to figure out what sort of objectively what the world is and sort of have the most accurate mental models, right? So we are accurately modeling the world. We’re not just trying to prove that we’re right. So we’ve heard a lot in the news about echo chambers.

So when most people get together in a group, they sort of form a tribe whose goal is to prove that they are better than everybody else, right? So we kind of see this in politics, right? So the problem with that is that what ends up happening is that instead of de-biasing the individuals in the group, but actually causes more biased, because I am looking at – We’re all looking at the world to try and just to agree that we’re all smart and right. So it's whatever our prior beliefs are get affirmed. 

So you'll say something about politics and I'll be like, “You're totally right,” and the other side are a bunch of idiots. Then you're like, “Yeah,” and then I'm like, “Yeah,” you're like, “Yeah,” and I’m like, “Yeah.” Obviously, that's not very helpful. 

So when most of us are approaching the world, we’re just trying to prove that we’re right, that the things that we already believe are true, and people who think that way are going to lose in betting. You probably know this from poker too, right? People who persist in their same beliefs about like – I mean, a good example would be there are some people who think you're always close to slow places, right? Meaning, try to track people with aces. Like how do their lives go? 

[0:23:08.1] MB: Yeah, I think you’re totally right. I mean, poker is such an unforgiving sort of crucible of learning, which is why I think it's such a great thinking tool, because in poker, the game doesn't care if you persist in your own kind of ignorance or persist to try to be right instead of be the correct, right? Or sort of try to be right instead of try to get to what's true. So you keep getting punished over and over and over again mercilessly until you change your thinking and start evaluating your own biases. 

[0:23:34.9] AD: Right, or go broke. Which is actually what happens to the majority of people, which is what’s so telling, right? The people who are successful are the ones who do the thing that you, said, right? But those people are very few and far between. So we’re trying to get ourselves into that group of people. 

[0:23:51.3] MB: And it's funny. I mean, we talk at length about this on the show and I wrote an article kind of at the beginning of this year called The Biggest Threat Humans face in 2018, and we’ll throw that into the show notes if any listeners want to check it out. But it was basically all about this idea that people today live in a world where they don't care about sort of pursuing the truth. They only care about being validated and feeling like they’re right. So that's causing all kinds of kind of social, and political, and problematic issues. The articles sort of addresses, “Well, how do we move forward and how do we kind of advance as a civilization if we’re kind of slipping into this place of ignorance and we’re losing kind of the pursuit and the grasp of what's actually true. 

I think our podcast in some ways is kind of a project to try and teach people how to think and teach people what's important so that they can – We kind of take their own journeys towards finding the truth and kind of leveling up and being smarter, kind of better versions of themselves. 

[0:24:45.8] AD: Yeah, I completely agree. We’re certainly seeing this in politics, right? The argument isn’t about what's the best policy. It’s about are you on my side? So, exactly. What that piece that you wrote, obviously, it totally germane to what we’re were talking about right now. So if you get a group of people together, like what you're trying to do with this podcast, where you’re saying, “Look. What we care about is not being right. What we care about is being accurate.” So I’m agreeing that because my goal is accuracy, that I’m going to have to take some short-term pain sometimes. It means that sometimes I’m going to find out that something I believed is not actually accurate. Now, that's okay, because my goal is accuracy. 

So what you're doing within the group is you’re reinforcing this new mindset. The reason why we think, “Oh! I just want to be right,” is because it feels good to be right and feels bad to be wrong, and we’re all just trying to feel good about ourselves. Where I’m just trying to feel like we’re smart and we’re valuable and our opinions are meaningful and we’re good thinkers and all of those things. If we have to say this opinion that I hold actually turns out I need to calibrate it, because it's not exactly right. In the moment, that feels really bad to us. 

But if we’re in with a really good group of people and we’ve decided that the goal is accuracy. What ends up happening is that the kinds of things that we start to feel good about shifts. So, for example, if I come up to and I say, “You know what? I think I was really wrong about this thing. Let me talk to you about it.” You'll say, “Oh my God! That's so amazing that you changed your mind and thank you so much for sharing that with me.” 

Now, what’s happened is that because we have this commitment, I’m now being reinforced for the act of mind changing, or the act of calibration, or the act of mistake admitting, or the act of giving credit to someone that maybe I don't want to give credit to, because, for example, they’re on the opposite side of the political aisle, or whatever it might be, and you’re reinforcing those behaviors for me. 

So now what happens is that the kinds of things that cause me to feel good about myself are things that actually move me toward the goal of accuracy. So I don't have to give up feeling good in the moment, because I change what it is that makes me feel good. The best thing that I could do, for example, in poker, if I walked up to say Eric Seidel, who’s an amazing player and one of my mentors. If I walked up to him I said, “Man! I think I really butchered this hand.” That would get so much more reinforcement than if I walked up to him and just said, “Oh! I got so unlucky,” which is what most – That’s the kind of talk that most people are reinforcing. 

Eric Seidel would've walked away from me if I said, “Oh, I just got so unlucky,” because he didn't care about are you right or are you wrong. He cared about are you getting better. Are you getting more accurate? Are you moving toward the North Star? Your North Star? 

So now, when I walk up to him and said, “I think I really butchered this hand,” which might feel really bad, sort of, at the outset. Once he’s become my mentor, that's what makes me feel. So get a really good group of people together when you're committing to accuracy. You’re going to hold each other accountable. You’re going to listen to diverse viewpoints. You’re going to be willing to – And here is a really important thing. You’re going to be willing to sit in the middle of not saying something is 100% or 0%, that Pete Carroll's call was bad or good, but holding those beliefs somewhere in the middle. Because once I say, like, “Do you want to bet?” What that does is it causes you to see like how sure am I about this? What you realize is that you're very, very rarely 100% or 0% on anything and it moves you to the middle where you’re like, “Well, I’m like 60% sure that was a terrible call.” 

So now when I start to walk through the map with you, instead of having to have a full on reversal from right to wrong, you get to go from like 60% to like 45%, which isn't as big a deal, because you're sitting in comfort with uncertainty anyway. So that’s the second step that’s really important. 

So the first is really start thinking about want to bet and really start embracing uncertainty and understanding the uncertainty in this relationship. The second is get other people to help you. The third is –I think this is the really kind of interesting one, is the best way to ensure that you’re learning well from experience is to actually trying to quarantine yourself from experience. 

So I know that that’s sounds a little bit weird, but let me try to explain what I mean. When you have an outcome, good or bad, the quality of the outcome casts such a strong shadow over your ability to evaluate the decision quality that it’s mostly better not to have the outcome at all. I mean, unless you actually have like 10,000 outcomes, unless you can flip a coin 10,000 times and you can run a Monte Carlo, which for many, many decisions we can’t. 

Most decisions, the probabilities are relatively unknown. You're guessing at them, and we mostly don't get enough tries at the decision in order to have enough data to be able to say something across the aggregate, right? So we're usually dealing with just a handful of outcomes as were trying to evaluate decisions. We know that the outcome quality, it’s just casts this very big cognitive shadow. So what we have to do is try to figure out how to get out from under that cognitive shadow. 

The way to do that is to kind of ignore the outcome and focus on the process of the decision in the first place. So there're really three things that you can – There's four things you can do in order to really do this. Number one, as much as possible, evaluate decision prior to getting the outcome. For example, if you’re thinking about a particular sales strategy, really do really good evaluation of that sale strategy in advance. Try to imagine what the outcomes of that strategy might be, or particular tactics that you might be employing and what the outcomes of those particular tactics might be. 

Try to – When you're thinking about what those outcomes might be in advance, think about what the probabilities of those outcomes might be and actually write them down, and don't be afraid to try to do that. People will say to me, “Well, I can't say what the probability is, because I don’t know what the exact answer is.” But it's not school where it's like you have to say if I flip a coin, how often it will land head? We know the answer is 50%. 

For most things, you're going to be guessing. It’s going to be a range. You’re going to be like, “I don’t know. It’s somewhere between 30 and 55% of the time,” and that doesn't feel good to most people because it feels like a wrong answer, but it's not, because it's better than not trying at all. Once you get that range on it, just like with the want to bet question, it causes you to try to really seek out the information that might allow you to narrow that range. 

So it makes you very information hungry, which is good, because you're actually thinking probabilistically. So think about the outcomes. Try to assign some probabilities to those outcomes, and now that helps you, because it helps you to actually make a better decision in the moment prior to the outcome coming. Then once the outcome hits, because you’ve memorialized that process, you're less likely to overreact to a single outcome, because you recognize that outcome is part of a set. So that the first strategy, is much as possible, try to do this in advance. 

Now, there are some outcomes that you can't do in advance. So for example, you know from poker, I can't go through that process and memorialize all that stuff and work in a group to try to get to those scenarios. When I’m making a decision at the poker table, I have 30 seconds. So pretty much all of my evaluation is occurring after the fact, exposed. 

So what do you then once you already have the outcome if we know that the outcome casts such a strong shadow? There're three strategies for doing that. The first is, is if I’m working with you as a member of my decision pod, to try to talk about an outcome. We’ll talk about the quality of my decision. It's really good if I walk you through the decision only to the point that I have the question and not beyond. 

So I imagine you know from describing poker hands that this is actually really difficult to do, right? So when people are describing poker hands to you, how often is it when they're asking you a question that they don't describe the whole hand before they ask for your advice? 

[0:33:07.5] MB: Yeah. I think there’s always missing information. What position were you in? What was the stack size? What was the stack size of your opponent? What were the table dynamics? There’re so many kind of pieces of the puzzle that often times people just leave out huge factors that could meaningfully impact it. 

[0:33:22.2] AD: So I think that that’s true. How often is it that someone describes a hand to you where they have a question about the hand and how often is it they don't tell you how the hand turned out? Don’t they tell you how the hand turned out like every single time? 

[0:33:35.7] MB: Yeah, that’s right. The best way do it would be to just –

[0:33:37.1] AD: And then they ask you. 

[0:33:38.4] MB: Yeah. Just don't say the outcome, and then analyze whether they made the right decision or not. 

[0:33:42.3] AD: Right. Because, think about it. So here is the problem, is that once I’ve told you the outcome, I’ve now infected you with the outcome. We know that there’s this bad thing called resulting. I’m now going to make you result. 

So, naturally, whether you're trying to or not, if I tell you that I won the hand, you're probably going to process my decision is better. If I tell you that I lost the hand, you’re going to process it as worse. So when I described, for example, a poker hand to you, I might say like, “Okay. I was in first position. I’m going to give you all the right info, obviously.” I was in first edition and this is was my stack size and this way my opponent’s stack size. Here's what my hand was and here's sort of whether I’ve been loose or tight or perceived as aggressive or whatever it is. Here’s the perception of me. Here’s how that person has been playing. I had this particular hand and I was trying to decide whether I should open the pot for a raise or fold. What do you think? I stop. 

Most people don’t do that. Most people will move on and say, “So, I was trying to decide whether I should raise or fold.” So I raised, and then they did this and blah-blah-blah, and they describe the whole hand and they'll say to you, “So what do you think of whether I should’ve played the hand or not?” You might as well not ask the question at that point. 

That's true for infecting people with any kinds of beliefs. It’s like, for example, if you have a hiring decision and you have four people interview the potential candidate. If you allow those people to talk to each other before they come and tell you their opinion, you might as well have had one person interview the candidate. You have to figure out how to quarantine people from these things that really a part of what causes bias so that we know that my beliefs can cause bias for myself, because I'm a natural tendency to try to argue toward my own beliefs. 

Guess what? If I tell you my beliefs, I’ve now infected you with those and we’re going to now probably come to consensus in our view toward those beliefs. If you know the outcome of a decision, I’ve infected you with it. So when I'm talking to you and I’m trying to work with you, it's really good for me to not tell you what I believe and not tell you the outcome. That's a really good thing to do, and only describe up to the point that I have the decision and try to quarantine you from the rest of these stuff. 

Another really interesting exercise that you can do that I think is super, super valuable, I kind of hinted at a second ago, which is take one group of people and describe the decision that you have. Go past the decision point to the end, to the outcome and tell them that the outcome was good. Then take another group of people, describe the exact same decision process and tell them that the outcome was bad and just look at what happens in terms of their evaluation of the decision process so that you can see how much the outcome drives the analysis of the decision. How much it biases the analysis, the decision, and then you can interpolate between the two, because the people that you tell that the outcome was poor are going to point up the weaknesses in the decision process and those obviously you would like to be able to see. The people that you tell the outcome was good to, they’ll point out the strengths in the decision process and then you can kind of combine those two pieces of advice to try to get to a better answer about what the quality of the decision was. 

[0:37:03.8] MB: This week's episode is brought to you by our partners at Brilliant. Brilliant is a math and science enrichment learning tool. You can learn concepts by solving fascinating, challenging problems. Brilliant explores probability, computer science, machine learning, the physics of everyday life, complex algebra and much more. They do this with addictive interactive experiences that are enjoyed by over 5 million students, professionals and enthusiasts around the world. 

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I'm a huge fan of STEM learning, and that's why I'm so excited that Brilliant is sponsoring this episode.  They’ve been a sponsor of the show for a long time and there's a reason. They make learning math and science fun and engaging and exciting. You can get started today with Brilliant by going to brilliant.org/scienceofsuccess. That's brilliant.org/scienceofsuccess. 

If you’ve been enjoying our weekly riddles in Mindset Monday, we’re also collaborating with Brilliant to bring some awesome and exciting riddles to our Mindset Monday email list. 

[0:39:10.7] MB: So I want to change gears a little bit, but kind of come back to a concept that I think underpins a lot of this thinking, which I love kind of the concept that you’ve talked and written about and this whole idea of sort of how poker and sort of broadly decision-making is really about kind of trying to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. 

As you sort of put in the subtitle of the book; making decisions when you don't have all the facts. I think one of the key components of that is this concept of expected value and how that kind of weighs our decision-making process.

We spent a lot of time on the show digging into the bias side and kind of the human side of it, but I'd love to get into as somebody who's been in the trenches and made a lot of this kind of quantitative probabilistic sort of thinking. I'd love to hear kind of you talk and share the idea of expected value and how that kind of weighs into what we've been talking about. 

[0:40:02.2] AD: Yeah, absolutely. So, again, in terms of making decisions under conditions of certainty, really, we’re talking about these two sources of uncertainty, which is hidden information and luck. So we’ve got those two pieces of the puzzle. What that means is that any given outcome, there’s – Basically, what it means is that there are more futures that are possible than the one that will actually happen, right? 

So for Pete Carroll, there was a future where the ball was fumbled. There was a future where the ball was intersected. There was a future where the ball is just incomplete. There was a future where the ball was caught. So we can sort of think about all those different futures and then think about that only one of those could occur, in this particular case, it was the ball was intercepted occurred. But each of those futures have a certain probability attached to them. 

So this is true of anything. It's not true of things that we sort of naturally think of as quantitative, right? That’s not the only place that’s true. So we think of like, for example, if we’re talking about investing, right? That, “Oh! Well, that’s obviously very quantitative. So we’re supposed to think about these probabilities and think about how we’re supposed to calculate those out.” But it’s really true of anything that we do in life. 

So thinking an expected value is a way to hold in your head that the future is uncertain so that we don't have these really big overreactions and so that we can evaluate our outcomes in a more rational way in order to learn from experience. 

So let me just say first of all what thinking an expected value means, and then I'll give you an example from my own consulting of how I sort of wrap this into a group where probabilistic thinking would have been necessarily natural to them that it really ended up improving the way that they work. 

So expected value is exactly this idea. Any future isn’t – Most times, the future is not 100% going to turnout in a certain. So there is a variety of different outcomes and each of those outcomes has a probability of occurring some percentage of the time that it happens, and each of those outcomes has some sort of return that you might get from it. So we always want to think about that the return is an all or nothing. The return is whatever the return is multiplied by the number of times that it will occur. 

So I'll give you a very simple example. If you tell me that when I flip heads, I’ll win $100. That doesn't mean that I'm going to win $100. It means I’m going to $100 when I flip heads. I’ll flip heads 50% of the time. So that means that what I actually am – My expected value on the next flip is 50% times the hundred that you're going to give me. So it's actually $50, not $100. So how can we apply this to something that’s less direct, like coin flipping? 

So I work with a nonprofit called Afterschool All-Stars. Afterschool All-Stars is a very big nonprofit. It’s national. Provide three hours of structured afterschool programming for over 70,000 inner-city kids per day. Really great. So they’re offering programs. 

Now, obviously, one of the things that's true of all nonprofit is that they have a big reliance on grants for funding. So I was working with them trying to help them to deal with their budgeting, because their budgets were kind of all over the place. Also along with that, to try to understand to help them understand when they should be hiring outside grant writers, which obviously cost money and also how to sort of work their stack in terms of prioritizing grants. 

So what I asked them to do was to give me a list of all the grants that they were applying to that year and what each grant was worth. So what they gave me was a list of all the grants that we’re applying to and what the grant award amounts were. So that's what the potential word was. So I said, “Okay. That's great. But what I need to know is how much are each of these worth to you. So you have to think about how often you’re going to get them and then multiply that by award amount to get it.” 

That was a surprisingly hard thing. It took a few back-and-forth to get them to understand what I was asking for, because it’s not a way that people normally think. In that, what I got was, “Well, we can't know what percentage of the time we’re going to get it.” I said, “Well, that’s true. But do you agree that you're not going to get it 100% of the time?” “Yes.” “Do you agree you're not going to get it 0% of the time?” “Yes.” “Do you agree you’re not 50-50?” “Yes” “Okay.” 

So we've kind of gotten a yes, no and maybe out of there. So you're going to be better than anybody else, because you have the most experience within your organization and with these foundations of kind of guessing at what the percentage of the time is. So you just have to take your best guess. 

So they started doing that and they took their best guess and then I showed them, “Okay. So now you multiply it by the grant award amount.” That actually tells you how much the grant is worth. So they started doing that and it did a bunch of really good things for them. Number one, because they had to actually estimate the percentage in order to get to the expected value, it made them actually think more about what the actual probability of getting the grant was, which helps them make decisions under conditions of uncertainty because they start thinking about, “Well, really. What is the luck element and what is the skill element? What can I do to make this grant better? What information can I find? What can I understand about the grantor and will it start to reduce the information asymmetry in order to get those guesses to be better?” So that's the first thing it did. 

The second thing it die, it revealed to them that some grant that they thought were very high value were actually not so high value and some grant that they thought were kind of low value were not that low value. So I can just give you an example. If you have $100,000 grant that you're going to get 10% of the time, that is not worth as much as a $50,000 grant that you’re going to get half the time. $100,000 grant that you’re going to get 10% of the time is 10% times 100, which means it's worth 10,000 to the organization. 

A $50,000 grant that you’re going to get half the time is 50,000×50%, which means it’s worth 25,000. So it helped them to understand what the actual worth to the organization of the grants were. Now when they were doing their budgeting, they weren't guessing so much, because they were taking all of those expected values, all of those expectancy and putting that into their budgeting for the next fiscal year. So they’re budgeting was more on. So that was really good. 

Then after the fact when they got or didn't get a grant, they were much less likely to overreact to it. So they were much less likely to start pointing fingers and blaming and say, “I can't believe that you didn't get that.” It helped them understand when they should hire an outside grant writer, because they could understand if the hourly that they were going to have to pay the grant writer was enough to increase the percentage of getting the grant enough to make it worth their while, to make it worth the return on the investment. So they understood that.

Then the other thing that it did that was really wonderful was because their focus started getting really digging down into these better probability estimate, they started calling up the foundation, and instead of just calling the ones that they didn't get, which is what they used to do. They would call them ones they didn’t get to ask what they could've done better, which his sort of our natural response. They started also talking to the grants, the people who gave them grants that they did get. 

The reason why they were talking to those foundations, which they didn’t used to do, was because they really wanted to understand how much of it was the grant that I wrote. Was I close? Was it a close call? Was it like one of these one point win versus one point losses or did a really clear the goalpost? Was I right in the center of the net? Because those are really important for understanding why you got the grant, because if it was a close call, obviously, you would want to treat that like you didn't get it so that you can improve going forward and you want to include that in your future probability estimate. 

Most people don't do that because it's painful. We really like to feel that we’re right and we did a good job and that our decision process was good. When we go to somebody where we got the grant and start probing around and they tell us, “Well, actually, you kind of got lucky.” That doesn't feel good unless you have a focus on accuracy and not a focus on being right. What thinking an expected value does is it naturally put your focus on accuracy so that that’s what you feel good about. You feel good about the call. 

So once we got all of that and there are sort of development attained, they ended up actually taking that way of thinking an expected value to program as well and thinking about what the success rate of a particular program might be. In this case, it would be how many kids would you serve. Also, with programming, there're some issues of if you get certain programs, you might be more likely to get a grant. 

So they would think about what’s the probability of success of program A versus program B if they have a choice between the two, and they're trying to think about how many kids would each program serve, and now they can come up with an expected value for how many kids are going to be well served from Program A versus program B. So it doesn't just have to be about money when you're thinking about it. It can be a return on your happiness, for example. How much happiness will I get out of something? How much satisfaction? In terms of health, like how much will it affect my health if I make choice A or choice B and what percent of the time do I think that that will actually work out? 

I think it’s a really valuable way to start approaching the world that really improves your decision-making and also goes a long way to helping with this resulting problem and helping with this kind of confirmation bias problem and this problem that we all like to affirm the things that we already believe and sort of think really well of ourselves. We don't like to probe around into the things that could actually help us improve our decision-making. 

[0:50:00.6] MB: Yeah. I think that's a great example and it's good to see kind of an application outside of the sort of really sort of clearly delineated world of poker. That's always something that I've tried to sort of zoom out and apply more broadly to business and personal context, is the beauty of poker as kind of a learning laboratory for teaching some of these decision-making concepts, is that in many cases you can kind of go and do the math after the fact and say, “Okay. Well, in fact, this was a correct decision, or this was an incorrect decision.” 

Now, you may not have perfect information of that case, but in many cases, you can kind of run the probabilities and say, “Okay. If they’re going to fold 30% of the time, this was a good all in,” or whatever. Whereas in business and life, it's so much harder to sort of cut through that fuzziness between decision and result and really figure out, “Okay. What actually was the correct decision?” 

[0:50:53.3] AD: So part of that problem I think comes from the fact that, in poker, it is actually possible to run a Monte Carlo, right? So you can take a particular hand and you can kind of run it enough sometimes to see how that might work out in the long run, that particular decision. So you can think of hypotheticals that you can actually run and see how they’ll go. 

I mean, poker ends in a cloud of no information a lot of the time. You don't end up seeing the card, but you’ve definitely played hands that are like that, or you can have some idea of, for example, if you said you can do these counterfactual, or you can imagine if the person is going to fold 30% of the time, or 40% of the time, or 50% of the time, or 20% of the time and you can figure out what their folding rate would have to be in order to make it a waiting decision. 

So there are ways to sort of explore in there that are more precise. But with a lot of decisions that we make, we can't do that, because the decision is somewhat unique and the probabilities are sort of more open and unknown. I think that that's where becoming really information hungry and having a really good group of people around you offer you their perspectives as well becomes really important, because even if your decision is unique to you, pieces of the decision are the kinds of decisions that other people have made. 

So we can think about bringing other people into the process as a way to kind of run a Monte Carlo, because then they’re going to bring their own experiences and their own evaluation of the process and their own sort of pieces of the puzzle and give their perspectives on your decision in a way that’s going to help you to cobble together something that looks like the decision that you made so that you can narrow down. So you’re not just guessing as much. So that you can actually get some clarity on know what’s worked for other people or hasn’t worked for other people. What their view. What their perspective is. What weaknesses they might see. What stress points they might see that you wouldn't otherwise see, because for any decision you make, lots and lots of people are making a decision that’s sort of like it. 

So if you can bring their experience to bear, it’s a little bit like being able to run that, “Well, if I done this, or if I had done this, or if I had done this, how do I think it would've turned out?” You might not be able to run it on a computer, but you can run it with other people.

[0:53:11.0] MB: I think you made another really good point about that and sort of how to apply this to more broad context in the sense that it doesn't have to be a perfect exact probability. Charlie Monger from Berkshire Hathaway has kind of the famous saying, or I think Warren Buffett says the same thing, is that they would rather be roughly right than precisely wrong. 

So the whole idea is to can you get a sense of, “Okay. We don't know the –” I think you’re nonprofit example really highlights this, is like we don't know if it's exactly a 35% chance of this sort of grant closing, but we know that it's between maybe 30 and 40%. This is a rough estimate and that can – Even if it's not a perfect number and the probability is not perfect, so many people kind of get caught up on that need to have the exact probability. When in reality, you can still make really effective decisions using this sort of lens of expected value even without exactly precise probabilities. 

[0:54:03.6] AD: I would actually argue to that point that not trying to all, taking the choice of not trying because you think that you can't come up with an exact answer is really, really disastrous. Like if I had a choice between stabbing an exact answer and not trying at all, I would take stabbing at an answer, because at least I’m thinking about, right? At least there are – Even though I should be thinking about a range, right? I should try to be roughly wrong as you said. I should recognize that it should be a rough estimate. 

But if I’m at least trying to come up with an exact answer, I'm trying. I'm recognizing that it is probabilistic in nature, and because I'm trying to come up with an exact answer, I’m at least looking for the information that would allow me to get there. Now, it’s a much better step to your point, the Charlie Monger and Warren Buffett statement to recognize that you’re actually going to have a rough estimate and that you have to be comfortable with that. That it's okay that you have a rough estimate. 

The fact that you can't get to an exact number, like 56%, doesn't mean that you're just supposed to say, “Well, screw it. I shouldn't even try, because I can't. I don't know that 2+2 is 4. All I know is that 2+2 is somewhere between three and five.” Well, okay. Because that’s way better than not trying at all, because if you don't try at all, the whole range is available. Then 2+2 might infinity, which we know is so silly. 

By the way, we do this in – If you think about it, we do this in math a lot, right? Like if I were to say to you what’s 156×243 and you said, “Whoa! I don’t know. It’s not off the top of my head.” I could actually get you to think this way, because I could say, “Well, do you think the answer is three?” Of course you’d say, “Well, no. That’s ridiculous.” I say, “Do you think is the answer is 225 million?” You’d be like, “No. Of course not.” 

So I can start to get you in the right range, like, “Do you think it’s a hundred thousand?” “No.” “Do you think it's 342?” “No.” We can start to get down into that range where we’re going to get somewhere in the 20,000-ish area, right? We can kind of get ourselves to a place where we kind of recognize, “Well, it has to have this many zeros, because I know what 100×200 is,” right? That’s sort of like – You start to sort of think about the other things that you know that are easier problems that can apply to it. I can now start to get you to range it down even if I can't get you to exact. 

In that case, the kinds of the decisions that you'll make out of – I can’t remember what the example I gave was, but the kinds of – Things that you’ll make out of – Decisions that you’ll make around whatever that number are, are going to be a lot better, because you're not going to be making decisions as if the number is three, and you're not going to be making decisions as if the number is 200 million. You’re going to be in the right range and that’s going to get you a lot farther along. 

[0:57:01.6] MB: I think that comes back to one of the things you talked about much earlier in the conversation, which is another really important point that we actually harp on a ton on the show, which is the idea that even these incremental kind of small improvements in your decision-making cascade through everything that you do and it impact your life across a vast array of kind of arenas. Because, really, fundamentally, life is just a series of decision after decision after decision. 

[0:57:26.7] AD: So there’s two things to think. I actually got asked this in an interview once. I said, “Well, how does improving your decisions really help if a lot of the decisions you make are one timers? So you can think about, well, hopefully one timer would be like getting married. I think for the majority of people now, it's a two timer. But let's call that a one-time decision and it’s like getting married. 

So how can it help because you're only doing it once and you just answered that question, which is, “Well, yeah. But if you're improving the quality of your decisions, you make thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of decision throughout your life.”

So if you improve the quality of each of those decisions even if the decisions might be different over the course of your life, that your outcomes are just going to better, because your decision quality is going to be better, even if it's a decision that you only do once. That’s going to realize – You can think about it as improving decision quality across a particular decision that you can run the decision 10,000 times. Over those 10,000 times, you'll be able to realize the game, but you could also think about it as more horizontal as opposed to vertical across all of your decision. Even though the decisions are somewhat different, if you're improving your decision quality, you'll see those gains start to realize. I think that’s the first important thing to understand. 

The second important thing is that I think that this kind of goes back to what we’re just saying about this idea of people are afraid to think about how often an outcome might occur, because they think they can't be exact. That people think that anything less than perfection is somehow failure, and they don't understand or they can't feel or they don't really – It's hard for them to embrace the idea that, “No. If I just get a little bit better, it’s okay. That I don't need to measure myself against perfection.” 

So I don't need to think about, “Oh! Am I getting it exactly at 56%?” It’s, “Am I not trying at all,” or “I’d rather be at between 20 and 80% than not trying at all, because even that’s better and it’s going to get me a little bit of the way.” 

So I like to give this example actually from poker, which is this, like, if I am not working with a group and I'm not really trying to improve these kinds of things, I'm not really trying to de-bias. I'm not really trying to think about how to learn from my outcomes. I’m processing the world and the way that I sort of born into it with not really trying to move my decision-making at all. 

Let's say that out of 100 opportunities that come my way, when I'm playing poker, maybe I catch five really good learning opportunities. I’m missing 95% of the learning opportunities as my natural self and I’m catching five of them. 

Now let’s say that I start to do this really great work and I start to find some people that I can really deconstruct decisions with and I start to think about how to be a better decision-maker, and now let’s say I improve that output so that now I’m catching 10 opportunities to learn out of 100 that cross my path. I think that a lot of people look at that as a failure. They say, “Well, you're missing 90% of the opportunities to learn.” I say, “No. That’s a tremendous success, because new Annie is going to crush old Annie. Old Annie is only catching five, and new Annie is catching 10.” 

So I suppose you can look at it as new Annie is missing 90%, but that's not the way I look at it. I look at it as Annie just doubled her opportunities to learn and, obviously, that version of Annie is going to crush in terms of her ability to win the old version of Annie who wasn't trying at all. 

So I think we really need to understand that the goal is to make these small changes. Now, look, if you can make big changes, that's great, but I think that it's unrealistic and I think that we think, “Oh! I’m going to get to this perfect state.” It actually inhibits us from being able to move forward, because we will view ourselves through that lens of failure. 

Whereas if we say, any time that we do catch ourselves, anytime that we catch ourselves being bias, we catch ourselves equating the quality of the outcome with the quality of decision or engaging in hindsight bias, or I told you so, or black-and-white thinking, or not thinking probabilistically and we catch it and we were reverse. That’s a success. Even if we missed a whole bunch of stuff before that, if we catch something that we wouldn’t have already seen, it really makes a difference. 

So I try to think about our – That we have this distribution. Let's call it just a normal distribution of the quality of our decisions. Our goal is to get more of our decisions our at the right tail, out at the good end of the tail. I think that doing this work, two things happens. One is you are more likely to end up with more decisions out at the right side of the tail. Not all of them, right? But you will. 

Then through this kind of training where you start to change, what it is that you get your reward from? Where you start to change getting your reward from Pete saying, “Wow! I really think I butchered this decision,” or “I think I might've made a mistake,” or “I think this other person, like I don't really like them, but I think I have to give them credit for this.” Where that start to be what you sort of get your high from, that will just slightly start to shift that distribution to the right, just a little bit, but that little bit is going to have you returns for your whole life. 

[1:02:42.3] MB: I think that’s such a critical point, this idea that changing. Then you mentioned this very early on in our conversation, but like re-orienting yourself to what makes you feel good is kind of this pursuit of truth and getting to what's true, as opposed to proving yourself right. It’s just a massive kind of fundamental impact across all of the results that you see in your life. 

[1:03:03.5] AD: That sort of mindset shift, is that in normal social conversation, like if I’m just talking to somebody who’s like isn’t in my decision part or whatever and we’re just like at dinner and you’re just like – Or you’re at a cocktail party or something like that. The normal interaction is that if I express some sort of belief that is not true that the other person generally won’t correct. They want offer the other piece of information. 

There're really kind of two reasons why that is. One is either if they really believe that you're wrong, they usually don't want you to feel bad, right? Because like you're at a cocktail party. They're not looking to get in an argument with your or whatever. So they don't really want to embarrass you. They don’t want to make you feel bad. They don’t want to get in an argument with you. So they usually hold the opinion to themselves, or they might thing that they’re wrong, and so they don't offer up their information because they don't want to be embarrassed. 

So you've expressed something with great confidence and so now they question their own belief, and so they won't actually offer up the information that you have. When you start to engage with people in the way that we’re talking about where it's around accuracy and we have an agreement to accuracy. It reverses that, because what you know is that if you don't tell me information that you have, that’s what’s actually doing harm to me. That it's not about like, “Oh! I might hurt her feeling because I’m telling her information that would have to cause her to calibrate her opinion.” It’s that you know that if I found out that you had information that would have helped me develop a more accurate view of the world and you didn't tell me it, that would be the harm that you would cause me. So that’s as beautiful thing that really happens when you create a really productive decision pod. 

[1:04:36.7] MB: So kind of tying this up, for somebody who’s listening to this conversation that wants to start to improve their decision-making, start to implement some of the ideas we’ve talked about today, what would you sort of give them as a piece of homework or kind of a starting step towards implementing some of these processes and ideas? 

[1:04:54.3] AD: Well, obviously read my book. So, yeah. I mean, I think that the biggest, the most important piece of homework is to go find some people who are looking to be more open-minded to be more constructive about the way that they hear the sense, that really do seem to want to be better decision-makers. You can find them as coworkers or as friends. Maybe members of your own family, and sit down and really write down an agreement with them. 

Say, “We’re going to be in this together and here’s what we’re agreeing to. We’re going to hold each other accountable to bias. We’re going to try to not be defensive when people challenge our opinion. We’re going to pat each on the back for things that signal that we’re trying to be accurate as opposed to trying to be right. We’re going to be open-minded to diverse opinions and we’re going to open ourselves up to people who disagree with that,” right?

Go look at your Twitter stream right now and see if you're only following people who have the same opinions with you or if you’re really, really paying attention and following with an open mind people who disagree with you, and go fix that. Go fix your social media if your social media is all on one side. Because you should be following people who disagree with you. 

Because the opinion that disagree with you are actually the most valuable opinions for you. They're the ones that have the most to teach you, because you already know why you think you're right. What's the most valuable is people who might point out to you why you might be wrong, and you can't get that if you're only listening to voices that agree with you. So go fix that and go find some people to do that work with you. So I would say that that would be piece of homework number one. 

Piece of homework number two would be to start listening in yourself and you can also do this as a group exercise as well. For the things that might come out of your mouth that signal that you're engaging in this kind of bias behavior. So any time that you declare things with certainty, using the words wrong or right, saying I should have known, or you should have known, or I told you so, or why didn’t I see that coming? In chapter 6 of the book, I've got a list of some of those kinds of things to get you started. 

But try to listen for those things that come out of your mouth that might get you to start thinking, “Well, I’m not really thinking in [inaudible 1:07:09.3]. I’m thinking with certainty. I’m thinking that I should have been able to see what was happening, when obviously I couldn't,” and really write those down and like pin those somewhere. Put those up on your wall or something so that you're aware of those kinds of things that might come out of your mouth or those kinds of thoughts that might go through your head so that when you have those thoughts, it will actually regular you to go in and actually step back and really examine was that true and signals that maybe you should say, “Well, would I bet on that?” 

So when you say like, “Oh, I should have known it was going to turn out that way,” and you know that that's on your list, that you step back and say, “Well, wait. Would I really bet on that? Would I bet that I should have known?” so that you can go back and start to think about really what the decision quality was. I think that that’s a really useful exercise and you can do with a group and you can share the list with the group so that they can point out when you're saying things like that. 

Then the third piece of homework that I would say is really try this thing of discussing a decision with one person and telling them that it turned out poorly and discussing a decision with another person and telling them it turned out well and just listen for the differences, because I think that that's one of the most eye-opening pieces of information that you can ever get. When you see how different the analysis is. Make sure that when you're doing it, you're not talking about something that's really obvious, like running a red light or running a green light. Make sure it's really like a more Pete Carol kind of decision. Something about a strategy or a tactic that you applied or a tough decision that you had in your life, and go talk to one person and say, “Hey,” and here it is. It turned out great. This make up a great outcome for it. Then with another person make up a bad outcome and really just hear them. I think that there's nothing more that will show you how much you need to really keep outcomes away from people when you're trying to get advice. 

[1:08:58.4] MB: And for listeners who want to dig in, learn more about you, read the book, etc., where can people find you and the book online? 

[1:09:04.6] AD: Sure. So if you’d look at annieduke.com, everything is there. So my book is definitely there. You can order there from whatever your preferred bookseller is. I really recommend – I also put out a newsletter every single Friday, and the newsletter goes through things that are sort of the moment that apply to this kind of thinking. 

As an example, in this particular – In the newsletter that’s going to be coming out tomorrow, I have a piece on Bloomberg article where they declared – These people had done a simulation of the World Cup, where they had Germany as the most likely to win the World Cup. Obviously, there're a lot of teams. So Germany was 24%. So when Germany got knocked out, Bloomberg wrote an article about how the simulation was wrong. 

So I have usually about five pieces in the newsletter. For example, this week, that's one of the piece of just talking about how problematic that is that they declared the simulation wrong when the simulation literally said that three times out of four, Germany was going to lose. It just happened that Germany was the most likely, and this is part of how you can see out in the world the way that this sort of need for uncertainty and the way that we are black-and-white thinkers instantiates in terms of our ability to really understand outcome quality and decision quality. 

So I’ll take from that, for example, which was obviously news in the sports to research in behavioral economics, economic psychology, to politics. Looking at how you apply to business. Looking at how you apply these kinds of concepts. So if you want to subscribe to my newsletter, you can also go to annieduke.com and there is links to archives of old newsletter so that you can read what I write before you decide to subscribe. 

Then if you do decide to subscribe, you’ll get that every Friday. You can also go look at my foundation, which is howidecide.org, and what we do is try to bring these kinds of decision skills to youth with a special focus on inner-city youth. So I help people explore that. Then you can also follow me on Twitter @AnnieDuke. 

[1:11:18.0] MB: Well, Annie. Thank you so much for coming on the show, sharing all these wisdom about decision-making and thinking more effectively. That was a really fascinating conversation, and we’re glad to have you on here. 

[1:11:27.3] AD: Well, thank you for having me. I really enjoyed it. 

[1:11:29.9] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you, our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story or just say hi, shoot me an email. My email is matt@successpodcast.com. That's M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I'd love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener email. 

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Thanks again and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.


July 19, 2018 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making
Dr. Moran Cerf-01.png

Real Life Inception – From Bank Robbery to Neuroscience with Dr. Moran Cerf

June 28, 2018 by Lace Gilger in Decision Making, Mind Expansion

In this episode we discuss real life inception with a former bank robber turned neuroscientist. Is it possible to plant ideas in your head? Are your memories an accurate reflection of past reality? Can you change and mold your memories to be different? We open the door on human irrationality and explore why and how we make bad decisions, and what you can do to make small changes that will create a big impact in your life and much more with our guest Moran Cerf.

Dr. Moran Cerf is a professor of neuroscience and business at the Kellogg School of Management and the neuroscience program at Northwestern University. He is also a member of the institute of complex systems and was recently named one of the “40 Leading Professionals Under 40.” His research uses methods of neuroscience to understand the underlying mechanisms of our psychology, behavior changes, emotion, decision making and dreams. His work has been featured on the TED Stage, In WIRED, The Scientific American, and much more. 

  • What’s it like to Rob a Bank?

  • How Moran went from an accomplished bank robber to a prominent neuroscientist

  • Most times in life we tell our story backward to make sense of the past

  • Are people rational actors who make decisions in their own best interest?

  • Humans are not rational actors - they often make irrational choices

  • Behavioral economics opened the door to explaining human irrationality - but neuroscientists were necessary to truly explain WHY these mistakes were happening

  • Irrational behavior - why it works - and how we can change it 

  • Is losing a $10 movie ticket the same as losing $10? In case of most people’s behavior - almost certainly not. 

  •  Your memories are not a reliable reflection of reality or your past - despite the fact that you think they are 

  • “Don’t believe everything you think"

  • Real Life Inception - Planting Ideas In Your Brain, re-shaping your memories

  • How neuroscientists use magicians and slight of hand to demonstrate our ability to rationalize and explain our decisions

  • If you make a small positive step, the brain will start to build pillars of support to underpin that new behavior

  • How does neuroplasticity impact our brain's ability to change adapt and transform our beliefs and memories

  • Your memories are never fixed - they aren’t sitting in a vault, perfect, unchanged. Your memories are changed and modified every time you remember them and pull them back. 

  • Ever time you use a memory, you change it a little bit - over time we change memories greatly - we can remember things that never existed and forget what truly happened

  • This is how the brain deals with trauma and negative experience

  • Even when you’re sleeping your brain rehearses, loads, and engages with your memories.

  • Bringing up and talking through negative memories physically reshapes those memories in your brain

  • You can use a daily decision-journal to see when you make the best decisions - and try to emulate those decisions - find the commonalities in situations where you made good choices

  • Humans are a lot simpler than we think we are. 

  • You think you are very unique - in terms of your brain - but we are very similar and fall into predictable behavioral patterns and biases 

  • When it comes to human behavior and decision-making - we are a lot more similar than different 

  • We often think our decisions are our own - but in reality, they are often influenced by biases, the environment, and many things beyond our control. 

  • We are discovering that more and more of our brain is not really under our control. 

  • We use 100% of our brain, but it's not all accessible to us. 

  • Subtle shifts in your environment change how you respond to things. 

  • “Embodied cognition” shows that many things are happening to us, that we don’t have full control over 

  • If you have a name for something you can think about it, if you can think about it you can control it

  • Coding things are huge as well (what was the temperature, your mood, hunger level etc when you made decisions)

  • Just by listening to this episode you’re improving your ability to think more effectively and make better decisions! 

  • How can we take these lessons of neuroscience and apply them to make ourselves smarter and better decision makers?

  • Making decisions is a tax on your brain. Outsource low-level unimportant decisionmaking. 

  • Evolution is an incredibly slow process - it takes millions of years

  • Planting computer chips into your brain - and teaching your brain how to read and interact with them. 

  • Homework - surround yourself with people who are doing what you want to do 

  • Think about what you want

    1. Find people who have it 

    2. Spend time with them and in their proximity

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Show Notes, Links, & Research

  • [Personal Site] Moran Cerf

  • [Wiki Article] Behavioral economics

  • [Wiki Article] Daniel Kahneman

  • [Wiki Article] Embodied cognition

  • [Wiki Article] Francis Crick

  • [SoS Episode] The Power and Danger of a Seemingly Innocuous Commitment

  • [SoS Episode] The Mysteries of Consciousness Explained & Explored with Neuroscientist Dr. Anil Seth

  • [SoS Episode] The Scientific Search for The Self - Discovering Who You Truly Are with Dr. Robert Levine

Episode Transcript


[00:00:19.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success. Introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:12.0] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than 2 million downloads, listeners in over a hundred countries and part of the Self-Help for Smart People Podcast Network.

In this episode, we discuss real-life inception with a former bank robber turned neuroscientist. Is it possible to plant ideas in your head? Are your memories an accurate reflection of past reality? Can you change and mold your memories to be different? 

We open the door on human irrationality and explore why and how we make bad decisions and what you can do to make small changes that will create a big impact in your life and much more with our guest, Moran Cerf.

I’m going to give you three reasons why you should join our email list today by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the homepage. There’s some amazing stuff that’s only available to our email subscribers, so be sure to sign up and join the email list today. First, you're going to get an awesome free guide that we created based on listener demand. This is our most popular guide and it’s called How to Organize and Remember Everything, which you can get completely for free along with another surprise bonus guide. You got to sign up to find out by joining the email list today.

Next, you’re going to get a curated weekly email from us every week called Mindset Monday. Our listeners have been absolutely loving this email. It’s short. It's simple. It’s filled with articles, videos, stories, things we found interesting or fascinating in the last week. 

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I wanted to also highlight before we start this interview, we had an amazing conversation with our guest Peter Shallard a couple weeks go where we looked at the gap that exist between learning and doing and why it is that so many smart, ambitious people invest hours in their growth and development but fail to see breakaway external results for the time they’ve invested. If you sometimes feel overwhelmed by all the things you know you could or should be implementing to level up your life or career, then that episode will blow your mind. 

We explore what science is telling us about the actual execution of concrete individual growth and measurable upward mobility across various dimensions of life. We share the most effective tactic for moving yourself from learning to doing and much more with our very special guest, Peter Shallard. That interview is one of the most impactful interviews we’ve done on the Science of Success. It’s completely different from any other episode and it will help you finally take action on what you’ve been procrastinating on. Check that episode out. 

Now for our interview with Moran. 

[0:03:31.0] MB: Today we have another fascinating guest on the show, Dr. Moran Cerf. Moran is a professor of neuroscience and business at Kellogg School of Management and the neuroscience program at Northwestern University. He’s also a member of the Institute of Complex Systems and was recently named one of the 40 leading professionals under 40. He’s work has been featured on the TED Stage, in Wired, Scientific American and much more. 

Moran, welcome to the Science of Success.

[0:03:58.9] MC: Thank you. 

[0:04:00.1] MB: Well, we’re thrilled to have you on the show. You’re obviously a fascinating individual, and for people in the audience who may not be familiar with you, I’d love to start out with – I’m sure you get asked this all the time because it’s such an incredible kind of moniker or experience to have kind of attach your name, but as somebody who loves heist movies and bank robberies and all that kind of stuff, tell us about your experience robbing banks.

[0:04:25.1] MC: Well, I spent over a decade of my life in my teens and early 20s working as a computer hacker for the good guys. So my job was to help banks and government institutes find what hackers could do badly to their systems before the hackers actually do that. I help them secure the systems better. So in doing so, one of my jobs was actually to try to break into the organizations, to the banks, to the financial institutes of sorts of find flaws in the security so we can secure them better. So I did have a lot of bank robberies on my sleeves. 

[0:04:59.6] MB: And in some of these cases, I mean, obviously a lot of it was sort of digital penetration testing, but in some cases you actually physically robbed these banks. 

[0:05:07.8] MC: Yeah. What’s less known about bank robberies, since there aren’t a lot of books with directions how to do that, is that the majority of them are actually of course done online using hacking tools, but hackers are also responsible for finding flaws in security more kind of physical. Someone leaving a note on the computer with their password or a camera that works on batteries and the batteries die every now and then and no one cares about that. 

So our job as hackers was also to sometimes actually go to the bank physically and try to find those security flaws and it involved actually coming to the bank and physically asking for the key to the vault and pretending to be bank robbers to see how it works. So we did that a few times, and for all purposes for the point of the bank tellers, this is a regular bank robbery, a clumsy one though.

[0:05:59.5] MB: I mean, that’s truly amazing. I can’t imagine what that experience must have been like, and I’m sure it was a lot of fun as well. 

[0:06:08.2] MC: Makes for a lot of stories. 

[0:06:09.7] MB: That’s true. So you’re an accomplished bank robber turned neuroscientist. Tell us a little bit about how that sort of transition took place and what drew you into the world of neuroscience?

[0:06:22.2] MC: So like most things in life, we tell our story backwards based on how we got to where we got rather than forward by planning it, and I guess I could think of various ways to figure out how I ended up who I was. But I think that I would boil it down to at least one encounter with a famous neuroscientist and biologist, Francis Crick, who was one of the guys who was remarkable in many ways, but essentially is the father of modern biology because he discovered the double helix and how it creates basically the building blocks of life and won the Nobel Prize in the 50s for that. 

After that, he became a neuroscientist who focused on looking at consciousness, and I was just a kid fascinated by consciousness research when I met him once and told him about my career trajectory in the hacking world and only learned at the time that he also had a short-lived career as a hacker during World War II. He was breaking codes for satellites, we were breaking into banks, but in his mind there was some similarity. The way he phrased it was that if you know how to look into black boxes and understand how they work without actually having access to what’s going on inside, you are what makes for a good scientist. 

Then he said the sentence that always changes someone’s life, “If you’re willing to give up your career right now and move to neuroscience, I’m going to write a letter of recommendation for you.” With a letter of recommendation from the Nobel laureate who discovered DNA, you pretty much can go to any school you want. So this was the moment that shaped everything and made me live my career as a hacker and start on as a neuroscientist trying to look at black boxes in the brain. 
 
[0:07:59.7] MB: That’s fascinating and really, really interesting. So I’m curious, I mean, I know a lot of the work you’ve done has kind of been around decision making and how our brains work. Starting out with kind of this core premise you look at, and I think this is something that’s being rapidly adjusted. But if you look at something like economics or many of the kind of social sciences, there’s this presumption that people are rational actors who make decisions in their best interest. Is that a roughly accurate way to think about human behavior?

[0:08:30.6] MC: So what you’re alluding to is exactly right. For the last 180 years, economics and much of the business world relied on their mistake, and this is a mistake to some extent even though there are some tools to this mistake, which is that humans are rational. It’s not. Humans are irrational. They’re not fully irrational, but they’re not rational in the way the equation predicts. So for the days of Adam Smith who created the idea of a homo economicus and national being, we could expect a lot of the theories of economics by assuming that people make rational choices, that if you have two items and one of them is cheaper, you’re going to buy the cheapest one. If you have two things that otherwise identical, you would never buy the thing that is more emotionally connected to you for no reason, because emotions shouldn’t have any part in economics. It should be just a pure rational choice. But we know that people don’t work like this. We know that forever there’s always some anomalies in the equations that couldn’t be explained by the theory, and this was the psychology of human beings, that sometimes we do buy the most expensive thing just because it signals to others that we’re willing to pay a lot of money for something expensive, and it makes no sense economically, but it makes total sense for us, because pride is something that the equations of Adam Smith couldn’t really put as an argument. 

We know that sometimes people do things because they’re sad that they wouldn’t do if they were not sad. So just somehow your feelings change what you buy. We know that the temperature in the room, who you talked to before, how many things you looked at before you made this choice. All of those things end up making us choose things different than what the equation predicted. 

For the last 20 years, there’s been a field called behavioral economics that basically took all the mistakes so to speak of the predictions and explained them, and they explained them using psychology. They said people aren’t rational. People have all kinds of works of their mind that lead to what they do that cannot be explained by just looking at an equation, but can be explained perfectly if you look at psychology. 

However, this also got to a dead end at some point. So a lot of the behavioral economists, which were mainly psychologists who did economics couldn’t really explain why this is the case. They could describe it, but not explain why. They said people would sometimes buy the product in the middle if you have three options, but we don’t know why. We think that because they don’t want to buy the cheapest one. They don’t want to buy the expensive one. They want the middle one, and this kind of works well, but we can’t really explain to you why or how we think, and more than that we can’t change that. If we want to make people be rational, we don’t know how. We only know that they aren’t, and that’s where neuroscientists like myself penetrated this field of behavioral economics and said, “We can explain to you. We can explain to you how the mind work and actually help you understand why people do the things that you quantify as irrational, and also we can actually help you change them.” So we can look at the brain and see what drives behaviors from the brain’s perspective and then offer ways to change that, and this is I think where people like me came. 

So there’re three kinds of states. First; economics theory predicts thing that make mistakes. Then behavioral economics or psychologists come and explain those mistakes by saying they’re consistent and they’re predictable and they always happen, but we don’t know how to change them or how to fix them. Now neuroscientists come and say we can fix them, change them and even offer a kind of complete explanation of how people behave, and that’s where I come into the world of economics, business and bring neuroscience to the game.

[0:11:54.1] MB: So let’s explore that a little bit more. Tell me about what are some of the kind of conclusions or explanations that you’ve uncovered and working on discovering around how people behave irrationally and perhaps how they can change or modify that behavior?

[0:12:10.9] MC: So I’ll give you examples of irrational behavior, what we understand about how people work and then how we can change it. So for instance there’s a classical experiment that actually won its author the Nobel Prize, Daniel Kahneman, the early turn of the century, where he show that people behave irrationally in the following ways. Imagine that you, for instance, bought a ticket to the movies for $10 and when you arrived at the theater and you’re about to enter you realized that somewhere between your home and the theater you lost the ticket. It fell off your pocket and you now lost our ticket and they asked a question, “Would you now stand in line and buy another one for $10?” Some people said yes and many people said no, “I’m fed up with this theater. I’m upset. I’m going home.” 

Then they asked people a different question. They say, “Imagine you didn’t buy a ticket. You just went to the theater to buy one and on the way to the theater you lost $10. Would you now not buy a ticket to the theater?” Everyone said, “Of course, I will buy a ticket to the theater. What does it actually do with losing $10?” 

For economists, $10 in the form of our precedent or $10 in the form of a ticket are the same. It doesn’t matter what image is on the paper, but for us it matters, because in one way we feel like we invested some of our emotions into the purchase and when we lost it we feel like we lost part of the theater and we might actually go home. 

Now, when we come to think about it, we know that people indeed behave this way because they think of money differently in context. They think of money differently when they’re angry, when they already put something to it, but we can’t really change that. My colleagues and I come and try to change things is by looking at how our memories work, how our emotions work and basically offering access to those from various levels of complexities. 

So I’ll give you the most complex one we can do right now, which is to actually change your memories and make you behave differently. That’s extreme and I should kind of put a disclaimer. Don’t try it at home yet until we understand how it works entirely. But one of the things we learned right now is that your memories, your experience in the world are not reliable to the extent that you don’t really know what’s going on inside your mind perfectly. You think you do, but you don’t. 

So for instance, you and I right now are speaking and you definitely believe that it’s happening, right? You will not question the fact that we’re talking right now, but what if tomorrow you had a friend talk to you and this friend said, “Hey, remember that we had this soccer match we were playing last night?” You say, “No, I was actually on an interview with this professor last night.” She says, “No. No. No. You were with me playing soccer.” You would argue and you would totally believe that you were with me. You would never doubt your own mind even if she starts showing you pictures of the two of you playing soccer or bring 10 other people who would tell you, “No. We were also there and you played soccer.” You would still not believe it, because there is this idea that we totally believe what’s happening inside our brain and we never doubt that. There’s a barrier of entry to our brain. We really doubt everything that comes in. We’re skeptical. But once it’s in our brain, we never doubt it. We trust our memories entirely. 

There’s a joke among neuroscientists where they say, “Don’t believe everything you think,” but that’s not the reality of how people operate. We always believe our thoughts. Now, we know that this is not a true thing. Now we also know that we can actually offer you ways to know that by changing them. 

One of the things we do in my lab right now is we try to take people who go to sleep, and while they’re sleeping we poke inside their head figuratively. We don’t really drill inside, but we just do things to their brain using tools that allow us to look inside their head and we have them wake up with different thoughts and different memories than the ones they went to sleep with, and in doing so they actually operate differently. Tomorrow they might actually believe that something didn’t happen happened, or they might have different views on some things that they always have one view about. In doing so we can actually start slowly changing how they think about things, so when they come to the experience that I mentioned earlier of going to the theater to buy a ticket, they actually would have a different mindset, a mindset that actually knows that there’s no difference between money in paper or money in ticket and they would respond differently. 

We actually take your brain and train your brain to understand these complexities so that you won’t make the same mistakes that others make. Sounds pretty creepy. It’s pretty remarkable and we’re just at the early stages of understanding how it works, but it allows us to actually take a person who is irrational and nudge them towards rationality. 

[0:16:18.3] MB: I want to dig in to a number of different pieces of that, but I want to start with how are you inserting these memories or beliefs or ideas into people’s brains?

[0:16:28.2] MC: There are multiple ways. To that I’ll give you a simple one and a complex one. So the simple one is it turns out that if you take a choice that people have no strong feelings towards and you change it and you make them believe that it was coming from them, they will totally trust it. 

I’ll give an example that’s concrete. There’s a study that was done by two colleagues of mine. They’re in Sweden right now. Where they would bring you to the lab and they will tell you to play a little game where they’ll show you two cards with two pictures of individuals and they say, “Hey, we’re going to show you two pieces of two men. You don’t know any of them. We just ask you to make a choice. Who do you find more attractive? The guy on the left or the guy on the right?”

You’ll say, “Okay. I don’t really know any of them. I’m looking at the pictures. I think that the guy on the left is more attractive.” They say, “Fantastic. Here’s the card with this picture of the guy that you just chose. Hold the card in your hand and explain to us in one sentence why you picked this guy.” So you hold it in your hand and you say, “Yeah, I like this guy because he’s smiling.” They say, “Fantastic. Let’s try another trial.” Pulling two new cards with two different people, showing you the cards, asking you again to make a choice, “Who do you find more attractive?” You make a choice, they give you the card. They ask you to explain to one sentence and then they move on to a different one. They did it for about one hour. 

During the one hour you see dozens of couple of pictures. Each of them means nothing to you because you don’t know who they are, but each of them is a choice that you make and explain. But here is the interesting part in this experiment. Every now and then, once every, say, 20 trial, they actually give you the card you didn’t choose. So you chose the guy on the left. They use slight of hands to give you the card on the right that you didn’t pick without telling you. So you get the card you didn’t choose. 

What they find are two interesting things. One is that people never noticed that they got the card they didn’t choose. So they just take the card that they received without noticing that this wasn’t their choice. More importantly, they hold the cards in their hand and then they go on and explain why this is really their choice. So in a matter of a second, you chose A, I give you B and you take B and you explain to me why you always wanted B, which means that somewhere in this moment you had a shift of memory. You make a choice, I change something in what the outcome is and you will go on to explain it. If I ask you to explain it more, you will create a more complex web associations about this choice that you didn’t make that will make you believe that it’s really a tool.

So here’s an example for that. You imagine you go to a supermarket and you’re about to buy 10 different items. One of them is a toothpaste. You go the shelf and there’s Colgate on the left and Crest on the right and you sit there for a while and you debate which one you want more and you try to be rational about it. You say, “I’m going to look at the color of the package and the price and how much CC of toothpaste is there and what’s more friendly environmentally?” whatever, and you ultimately choose Colgate, let’s say. 

You put it in your basket and then you go on and you shop for other things and some point you get to the checkout, but in the moment you chose Colgate on the shelf, and the moment you got to the checkout, I sneak in your basket and I replaced the Colgate with a Crest. If the choice means nothing to you, which is what’s true for most choices that are kind of arbitrary, you would not notice that I actually replaced the Colgate with a Crest. You will buy the Crest, and if I stop you on the way outside the supermarket and I say, “Hey, we’re interested in market research to ask you why you chose Crest.” You’re going to never say, “You know what? I have no idea,” or “I actually chose Colgate.” You will just go on and explain in detail why Crest is better and why you like the minty taste or the whitening compound or whatever. If I probe even more and asked you for more explanations, you’re going to dive deeper into your brain and come up with even more complex answers and the more complex answers you’re going to give me, the more convinced you will be in the truth of those answers. 

The point, that then you will actually be convinced that you really like Crest. Tomorrow you’re going to buy Crest yourself. So this is a small experiment where we just ask you questions with something you didn’t want and in answering them you create the associations in your brain that make you believe that you wanted it and go on and really desire this thing. That’s like one example of creating memories. 

There’s a complex one that i just mentioned briefly because this one really is not something that’s tangible in any way for your audience, but it’s something that scientists do a lot, which is we actually look at patients who undergo brain surgery and do things inside their heads. One of the things I’m known for as a researcher is this work that we do for the last, now, almost two decades where we work with patients who undergo brain surgery for clinical purposes, and during the surgery, the surgeons placed electrodes inside their head in order to understand how they think and work and to identify the source of their problems. 

What we do is we say, “Since you already agreed to a surgery and you already let us in your brain, we also want to study you. We want to also ask you if you want to buy Colgate or Crest while you’re on the operating room and understand how you make these decisions,” and essentially we use those wires inside people’s brain to understand how memories work, how thoughts and feelings are created, but also to understand how choices are being made and we change them. So that’s the extreme version of what I just said earlier instead of having you change things outside of your brain and explain to them, “We actually go inside and help you change them yourself and explain them differently.” So that’s something that you really shouldn’t try at home, but the first one is a version of a simple one of me moving your choice into one direction and having you explain why, and in doing so creates new answers. 

[0:21:39.9] MB: That’s interesting and a little bit scary, but really fascinating. 

[0:21:44.1] MC: I agree. 

[0:21:44.4] MB: I want to get into kind of some of the implications of that around human augmentation and some other things. Before we kind of get down that rabbit hole, I want to stay on this decision making track for a few minutes. That experiment reminds me a little bit of kind of the commitment consistency bias that Cialdini writes about in the book Influence, and I don’t know if you’re familiar with the yard sign experiment where they would go and ask people to put like a little sticker that said, “Drive safely on their window,” and then they would come back two weeks later and those people would be willing to put these gigantic billboards on their yards that said “Drive safely.” 

[0:22:17.9] MC: I think what you’re alluding to, and that Cialdini is known for that, and I think that others are kind of following his suit right now, is that if you do a small step to change behavior in the right direction, the brain will be helpful in helping you do it yourself in a much bigger way. So with people asking me, “How do you kind of change behavior of someone,” and changing behavior is really, really hard, but making small nudges is really easy. What we learn is that many times the small movement starts things on its own if you see a reward. 

Think about going to the gym. If you take a person who is overweight and tries to lose weight, the idea of losing 50 pounds seem impossible and seems really, really hard. So people kind of lose hope right away even before they started, because it kind of feels impossible. But making a person go to the gym once, working really hard and feeling something the day after is easy. If you do it once you will feel something, and this feeling that something works is enough to actually make us want to do it just one more time. 

I think that if you try to change someone’s behavior, going for 180 degrees is really, really hard, but going for 10 degrees is possible and the hope is that once the other person sees that change is happening, they will carry the 170 degrees remaining themselves. So I think that’s kind of where we’re going. We don’t really say, “Let’s take a person, poke in his brain and make him wake up differently.” We don’t say, “Let’s take a democrat and wake him up a republican.” But let’s say, “Let’s take a democrat and just offer him a new lens on the views that he had before and maybe this is enough for him to actually be open to new ideas to talk a republican, talk to a person who is a bit more conservative,” and that’s enough to move things in directions that are more kind of converging. So you can take people from opposing opinions and just have them find a language that can be used for the two of them to talk. You can take people who are having difficulty changing behavior and give them the steps towards changing behavior. 

I think that’s something that was known to a lot of psychologists for a while, but now we’re starting to look at the neuroscience evidence. We actually see, we quantity the change. You would go to a therapist before and talk about your girlfriend who dumped you and hope that things are going to get better after a few meetings. Now we can actually quantify the therapy and tell you, “Yes, things are moving. You actually are showing changes. You see things differently or better overtime, and this means that you’re making progress.” I think that many people, once they see that something works, they do the work themself to make it work fully, and that’s like a good tip I guess for people altogether. Don’t aim for the entire 180 degrees right away, but just 10 steps that actually show to the other person that doing something will make a big kind of difference. 

[0:24:54.6] MB: So how does the concept of neuroplasticity kind of play into these changing patterns of thought and memory and belief?

[0:25:03.8] MC: That’s a great question. We know two things about the brain, and now we know a third one that’s [inaudible 0:25:07.8] you. But the main thing that you should kind of know and [inaudible 0:25:10.4] audience and maybe the take home message, is that their brain is the organ in our body that mother nature gave us to adapt the world after we’re born. Most of the other things in your body are kind of fixed, like the DNA or the eye color, the hair color, how much hair you’re going to have in your chest. Everything is all set in a way when you’re born. The only thing in our body that’s made for the patient is the brain, and this is the organ that constantly responds to things in the environment. 

Now we know that these organ changes overtime and some changes happen faster and slower and over ages, there are some ages where things even change faster. When you’re a kid, 0 to 5, you can really, really change fast. When you’re an adult, it becomes a little bit harder to change. This is why it’s easier to learn languages when you’re 0 to 5. It’s harder to learn languages when you’re older. 

Also, there was one thing that always changes. These are your memories. Your memories are never fixed. They’re never kind of sitting in a vault like we imagine them to be. Just experience happens, you store it in your memory and you load it every time someone asks you a question about that memory. It actually works differently. You go to an experience, you store it in the vault, but then when you asked about this experience, you open the memory, you offer it to the other person as token and then you resave it. This means that if you resave it every time you use it, you can always change it. 

Imagine that your girlfriend dumped you and you’re feeling really, really sad. You go to a therapist. The therapist asks you about this thing. You tell the therapist about this breakup. In doing so you actually open the memory for changes. The therapist maybe will say something. She would say something like, “You told me for a while about this relationship and you never really were satisfied.” In saying that, she actually introduced a little change to the memory. Now you resave everything with this change. 

When you come to the therapist a week after and she asks you again about this breakup, you won’t load the original. You would load the modified version, that one that you saved last. Every time you use a memory, you change a little bit. Which means that overtime, when we use memories a lot, we actually change them and we change them sometimes greatly. We change them so that we remember facts that are totally differently overtime. We actually have new lens on experiences that we happen to kind of find important. The more we use it, it actually changed a little bit more because we use it a lot more. 

Now, this is by design. This is how our brain is working so that we can heal. So if something bad happens, we actually deal with that and poke in the memory for a while until it becomes better. This is how our brain deals with trauma. This is how our brain deals also with things that we want to kind of remember more. We add more and more angles and more and more nuances of them until they become a perfect memory in our mind. So we actually use memories and change them all the time. 

Now, knowing that means that we can actually use that to help you change. The neuroplasticity that you asked me about suggests that I can have you talk about things. I can help you go through experiences, and in doing so really change how you view them. Primarily, we now know we can do it also when you’re sleeping. Even when you’re sleeping your brain still rehearses memories and loads them in kind of things about them in the form of dreams, in the form of thoughts that happens when you’re sleeping. It can even now reactivate some of the memories even when you’re kind of resting and help your brain do this process of rehearsing them and changing them. 

All of it is to say that we have more and more evidence in the last couple of years to how the brain changes memories, experiences and thinking about things and we’re now trying to quantify that and help people really understand when things happen, when changes are happening and how changes are happening so they can actually get better in all walks of life; get healthier, have less traumatic experiences, and altogether align their outcomes with their interest by ways of actually rehearsing the things that they want more and really living the life that aligns with what their intensions are.

[0:28:57.1] MB: So as a neuroscientist, is your work looking at kind of the – In some sense, the sort of the physical aspects of how the brain changes, how memories are stored and recalled and how are the beliefs can be kind of shifted by these kind of interventions?

[0:29:13.3] MC: Yes. So we look at it not just like in theoretical neuroscience aspect, also practically. We’re trying to kind of see what things people can actually do that will help them change. One thing I said is that we actually learned that just taking experiences that are bad and actually dealing with them by talking about them more and more. So talking about them particularly with people who can give us positive inputs actually makes us get better. You’d go to a person, you tell them the story, they give you positive input, you save it, you go the day after, you tell them the story, you give you positive input. It actually changes. It means that overtime you will get better. You will have different perspective of this same bad experience. That’s a tangible, practical thing. 

We also know that, generally, giving people access to their behavior in the past with some kind of reflections of that helps them to change. For example, if you’re the CEO of a company, we have studies where we tell you, “For the next week, work about your life regularly.” Just every time you have a choice, write down the state you are at when you made this choice. How hungry you were? How hard you were? How mad at people you were or how important their inputs were. Put as many things as you can into the moment and then tell us what the options were and what the choice was and just code your choice, log them for the next 10 days, let’s say, and then when they come after a week of doing that, we actually go with them over all the choices and we ask them to tell us which ones they’re happy with and which ones they’re not happy with. Which ones they like the outcome. Which ones they feel they made a mistake. 

We look at their brains when they make the ones that are good and the ones that are bad and try to profile their brain and tell them, “You know, it seems that your brain makes choices that you feel happier with when you’re hungry. You feel happier with choices when you’re in the evening rather than in the morning. You like choices better when you’re with these people, but not with that people.” 

So we kind of help them see which states their brain is when they make choices that they like more and then help them actually kind of profile their brain. What’s important is that every person has different brains. You might feel better making choices in the morning and I might feel better making choices in the evening, or your wife might like better choices that happen when she’s surrounded by 10 people and you might be alone. 

So every one person  has their own brain, but we try to actually help people figure out what’s their brain profile and what choices align with that and what choices are not and maximize the time that they spend making choices that are important in the right environment. You can say that, “For this particular choice, I’m going to wait in the morning because I know that my brain works best in the morning when I’m full after I spoke with 10 people, but when I’m alone, closer the deadline.” 

In doing that, we actually look at your brain and tell you what your brain’s perfect states are, how to get there and make decisions that are better. Now you don’t have to work with neuroscientist for that. Neuroscience gives you more access to the brain, but even every person from the room that is listening to you right now can do it for themselves. They can take 48 hours by which they just sit with a notebook and every time they make a choice, they just write down the conditions and then look back at the choices, code which ones they like and which ones they are not happy with and try to see what is common to their situations and they were at when they made choices that they like. Maybe you were the simple person or maybe you were alone. Maybe you were hungry or full. Maybe you’re in a loud place or a quiet place. Some of the choices are going to tell you something about who you are. That’s enough to, even without looking at the brain, understand something about what’s your best case scenario. 

[0:32:32.7] MB: That’s a great strategy and reminds me of a very similar tool used on sort of a broader spectrum, is the idea of a decision journal. I mean, this is almost like a daily decision journal, but the other concept would be kind of expanding that out to looking at the major decisions in your life and trying to understand what are the kind of contexts and inputs around those and then aggregating those overtime so you can see your own sort of biases or repeated errors in your thinking.

[0:32:56.3] MC: Absolutely. I think what’s important in understanding with people who don’t believe that, but I can’t stress it enough, is that we’re a lot simpler than we think we are. People think, “Oh! But until you understand the complexity of my mind, you need hundreds of choices and to follow me constantly and really understand.” 

People think that they’re very unique, and it turns out that for the sake of brain and choices, we’re a lot more simple. We’re a lot simpler than we think we are. We are all falling into one of very few clusters. We’re very predictable. This is what marketing mangers knew for a while, that if you priced a thing as 6.99 rather than 7, everyone knows that it’s actually 7. It’s one cent different, but it works. All of us somehow fall for this in our mind because we read numbers from left to right rather than right to left. 

Even though one of us is an engineer, another one is a housewife, a kid, an adult, speaking English or not, we all fall for that. Somehow marketing managers realized that when it comes to choices, we’re a lot more similar than different. In that sense, if you just find your brain and figure out which kind of category you fall into out of very few, you will find not only how you work and what’s helping you do best. You’d also find who’s like you and who’s not and you can start thinking about putting yourself next to people who think like you or think different than you so you can make choices similarly. 

So maybe someone who shares your views and values and then you can outsource some of the choices to her instead of having to make all the choices yourself and say, “I trust my wife because I know that she chooses like me. So I’m going to give her the reigns when it comes to what we eat and when we go on vacation and she would give you the choice of who you’re spending time with and when you should talk to this or that person,” because you know that brains would actually work the same way. But maybe in your company, you want someone who thinks the opposite of you because you’ll say, “I’m going to be really good in the morning. I need someone else to be really good in the evening, and this is the person that will make the best thing for me.” In many ways, once you start profiling your decision making style and asking others around you to do the same, you will start finding what’s the perfect match. Well, not just you, but for a group around you. 

[0:35:05.1] MB: I think that’s a really interesting point, and I think it kind of comes back to this idea that you touched on earlier, which is with the experiment where people were kind of handed the pictures they didn’t select, we think our decision making is so – And the problems that we faced are so unique and so kind of one off, but the reality is not only do they often times fall into kind of simple, predictable patterns of bias and behavior, but also in many cases our decisions aren’t even really our own decisions and they’re impacted by small external factors, like the environment and other things.

[0:35:38.0] MC: Absolutely. So we know more and more now that more and more of our brain is not really under our control. This myth that says that we only use 20% of our brain. This is not true. We use 100% of our brain, but not all of our brain is accessible to us. Not everything in our brain is something that we have control. A lot of things that happen in our brain happen without you actually governing them. Simply, you can think about three things, right? Your brain sends a signal every second to your lungs and to your mouth and to your nose to inhale and exhale and contrast and expand. All of these happens under the hood. You have no access to that. It just happens and you’re there witnessing it without the need to actually govern that in a new way. 

This is true for even more complex things, like your emotions. You don’t really say, “Some friend of mine is sick. I should activate sadness right now. Turn on sadness please. Sadness for 10 minutes. Turn off sadness right now. Let’s move to happiness.” You don’t really control your emotions. They kind of dawn on you and you’re a witness to their exposure. 

So we know now that the brain has a lot of things that are happening that we have no control over. They just happen to us. We’re beginning to actually understand how they work and how to get control over them, but for the sake of the immediate moment, we should know that a lot of things happen in our brain that we don’t have access to, but they do have influence on our life. The temperate in the room changes how you respond to things. 

There are experiments where people are asked to hold a cup of tea in their hand while they write an essay about their mothers, and whether it’s a cup of hot tea or a cup of iced tea, changes how nice or warm or cold they are in their writing about their moms, just because the temperate in your body reflects thoughts that are in your mind differently. So you probably have all the repertoire of options of things that you think about mother, but if you’re cold in your body, you will reflect some of the negative ones maybe more than the positive ones even though you don’t put them in your head. 

This is all part of like this field. It’s called embodied cognition that chose time and again that a lot of things are happening to us that are driven by our mind and our body that we have no full control over. The moment we understand them, we can actually predict how they’re going to work, but at the same time they’re governing how we think, decide and operate without us knowing exactly how they are going to influence us before they are actually manifested themselves.   

[0:38:00.7] MB: So what can we do or maybe somebody who’s listening, how could we kind of constructively think about the idea of embodied cognition and these other things we’ve been talking about, decision making and behavior, how can we incorporate that into our own decision making and process and try to live with that effectively or be better decision makers as a result?

[0:38:20.9] MC: So I’ll give you a few quick ones. First of all, just by knowing about it. If you just know the term, if you go to Wikipedia and read about it, if you listen to our conversations about it, immediately things get different. You immediately become aware of this just by knowing that these things exist. If you have a name for something, you can think about it, and if you can think about it, you can actually control it. So just whoever is listening to right now, already by listening made a first step. 

Let’s take it differently. Another step we can make is also to code things. So we said that the CEOs of companies come to us and we tell them, “Please, write down what was the noise level in the room when you make a choice in the board room. Tell us who you were with.” Just by coding thing in your life you will become aware of the patterns and you will start to know them. That’s option number two we mentioned. 

Option number three, of course, is to work with a neuroscientist who can actually look at your brain and analyze your brain as you make choices and really kind of create a pathway, diagrams that explains to you how you choose and to change it if you want. Option number four, which I think is my preferred one, is to surround yourself by people who overtime prove themselves to be decision makers that you like and outsource some choices to them. 

So I always go to restaurants with people I really, really like to have dinner and when the menu comes, I tell the other person, “Choose for the two of us.” Sometimes I will choose for the two of us. Sometimes they would choose with separate choices. I say, “I trust you. I know that your taste is great. I like new experiences. I know that you’re going to want what’s in my best interest. You choose for the two of us. I’ll do the same next time so we cannot overload each other with the choices.” If none of us know each other that well, I ask the waiter to say, “Hey, give me two, three options that you think are good and I randomly choose number three,” just to kind of make it so that I would commit to something but not fully choose always the first one because it might be given by some other ideas.

Those things actually ease our lives because they tell us first of all that, A, we don’t have to make choices, but B, the choices that we make when it comes to small things are usually pretty similar. You won’t be that disappointed from the salad compared to the stake, and you think before that you really will be, but you won’t. 

Also, as you start to get the outcomes of choices and you see which ones you’re happy with, which ones you’re not, who chose them, you start to know something about your colleagues and your friends and you say, “Okay. Every time I go to a stake place, I should take Leslie and have her make a choice, because the past history shows that she’s really, really good.” “Every time I go to a movie, I should go with Anthony and let him choose, because I know that he’s making a good choice.” In doing that we, A, become friends, but also B, remove a little bit of the load, the choices we have on our brain. We know that making decisions actually is tax on our brain. Having many of them tires our brain. So if they’re not that important, why don’t divide them by people and take people that you know are making good choices in domains and have them do those for you. That’s tip number four in out of four ways to actually do better in choosing.  

[0:41:17.4] MB: So I want to come back to what we talked about earlier, kind of the idea of inserting memories and transforming the brain. You recently gave a TED Talk called Humans 2.0 where you kind of talked about human augmentation and a really interesting kind of future of how we can apply technology to the brain and enhancing our cognition. I’d love to hear your thoughts about that.  

[0:41:39.0] MC: If you look at evolution, it’s a really, really slow process. It takes millions of years. If you think about how long it will take you humans to say develop wings so we can fly, it’s a process that won’t be your and my lifetime. It will take years of evolution if it’s even advantageous for human to have wings. But for the first time in history, we actually are able to take over evolution and enhance human bodies much faster. Rather than millions of years, it could be a few months or years. We do that by actually harnessing the power of technology and the power of the brain. 

So what we know with the brain, is the brain is a machine that gets input and learns what’s the signal in this input. This is, if you want how we learn things as babies. When you’re born, you have a brain, the brain is pretty, void of stimuli, but you start bombarding the eyes of a baby with photons from the world and its brain quickly learns how to do the complex [inaudible 0:42:32.6] transformation of the signal and essentially learn to see. It takes a baby a few hours, days, weeks before it learns to separate colors and identify moving shapes and gradually learn how to identify object and stuff like that. Within a few weeks you already see. You see the same way. You see after many, many years of training, and you see by having your brain do complex processing happening under the hood. 

In the same way, your brain learns how to hear, how to smell, but we can also think of new organs that don’t exist right now and see if the brain of a human would learn how to control them. Imagine that I take a third arm and plug it somehow into your brain and connect it to your body. The question is; will the brain learn quickly just by getting feedback from this new arm, how to control it? The answer is yes. The answer is some experiments that were done on animals and a few that were done on humans, we plug new devices into their brain and we see that their brain within a few weeks or months usually learns to control them. 

The classical example would be the cochlear implant. That’s a device that people that are deaf use to hear. You basically a device that translates the molecular vibrations in the air into the language to their brain and the brain just gets bombarded with a new signal that it doesn’t know, because these people were deaf and they didn’t hear anything before, but suddenly their brain gets new signal coming from vibration in the air and within a few months they learn to hear. That’s how we kind of can conquer deafness. 

There are now studies with humans that are trying to conquer blindness and make people who were blind learn to see. We gradually learned that the brain learns a lot of things if you just blast it with information that has meaning and let it do its magic. Now in the same way we can imagine a world where we indeed connect a third arm and teach you how to control it or plug two wings into your brain that would start flapping and changing how they feel. Overtime your brain will learn how to actually control those wings, but also how to fly. 

This kind of idea that we can enhance the human body by plugging devices into the brain and having the brain learn quickly how to control them is the notion of Human 2.0. We take the body that you are born with, we plug new devices into it; wings, our complex nose, a third eye in the back, anything you can imagine as long as it knows how to speak the language of the brain, we presume that the brain will learn overtime to control it and you will gain this new senses and you kind of control over the organ. That’s Human 2.0. 

[0:45:08.7] MB: It’s so fascinating to me this idea that the brain is so effective at adapting and understanding new information that essentially we’re not quite there yet obviously, but potentially in the near future there could be the technology basically implant a chip into your brain that could learn to intuitively think and interact with just like your own limbs or your own sort of thinking patterns that could actually be – Whether it’s sort of an external piece of electronics or computational power or whatever. It’s really, really interesting. 

[0:45:39.5] MC: Absolutely. I think that the nice analogy that someone equated it with is two people. One guy navigating the world with a map, trying to get from point A to point B. Another guy just memorizing things in his brain and then navigating with his mind. The only difference is whether the thoughts come from your own mind or from the map, and gradually we know how to basically put this map inside your head. 

This map is an example. It could be your phone. It could be any gadget on the outside world that will give you an advantage. Right now if I ask you to calculate how much is 58 x 56, you would spend some time with a piece of paper or with your iPhone trying to do the numbers. But if I ask you how much is 2 + 2, you will just outsource, so to speak, the thought from your linguistic area to the calculating area. You’re going to get the number and you’re going to turn it back and you’re going to say the number is 4. It’s just because one of them is easy, one of them is hard. But if we take the 

iPhone chip and put it inside your brain, when I ask how much is 58 x 56, you will just do the same thing, but inside your head you will just think the thoughts that will turn to the iPhone, like the guy turned to the map and asked the iPhone in your head how much is the answer. It will do the numbers for you and give it back to you and you will just spit the answer not even knowing that it happened on a different device, because once we plug it into your brain, it would even feel to you like it’s a different thing. The same way you don’t really feel the separation between the left hemisphere and the right hemisphere. They just feel like part of the same thing. If we put a thing inside your head, it will do things for you. It will just filter you automatically and immediately, like it’s you making the same things, and this is kind of the next level of what we can do. We can actually start harnessing the power of technology inside our head and feel like it’s doing it for us, really, kind of integration of human and machines. 

[0:47:17.8] MB: So fascinating and it’s such an exciting future to kind of contemplate. So wrapping up, for listeners who want to concretely implement some of the ideas that we’ve talked about today to improve themselves, what would be kind of one piece of homework that you would give them as an action step or starting point?

[0:47:36.5] MC: I think that, in my mind, the first step is to just know. So the more you know the language of what is – We spoke about recognition, about irrational thinking. Once you know those things, you can’t ignore them anymore. They become part of your life and you start being aware of things. So that’s step number one. I think every person who’s listening to this podcast did step number one. 

Step number two, surround yourself with people who embody the things you want to have yourself. I tell a lot my students always that if they want to become something, one way is to learn about it and actually trying to train themselves. But another one is to just surround themselves with people who have that. If you want to be funny, you can actually buy a book of 1,000 Jewish jokes and read them or you can actually try to learn how to be funny by looking at the comedians. But another one is to just find friends that are funny and be with them for a while. It will figuratively rub on to you by osmosis. You will actually become funnier because you will just internalize how they do things by how fast they are, what’s their timing when they tell jokes. You will somehow learn that. 

Same is true for any other thing you want to manifest. You’re always late and you want to be on time. Be next to people who are always on time. You will just become a person that’s on time automatically. I think this is tip number two that I always try to kind of do in myself. You think what you want, you find people who have that and you put them next to you, and this works magically in changing you without you needing to work for that. It just happens automatically. 

[0:49:07.9] MB: Where can listeners find you and your work online?

[0:49:11.5] MC: So I have a website. It’s my first and last name .com, morancerf.com. Generally, I’m the easiest to find. If you just look my name, there are so many now talks and videos that my students and I have given that it’s the easiest to find. Really, the most accessible scientist you can imagine.

[0:49:29.7] MB: Well, Moran, thank you so much for coming on the show, sharing all these wisdom. Such a fascinating career and life you’ve had and it’s really cool to see how you’re applying these now to help people become smarter and to change neuroscience.

[0:49:43.3] MC: Thank you so much, Matt. It really was a pleasure. 

[0:49:45.1] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you, our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story or just say hi, shoot me an email. My email is matt@successpodcast.com. That's M-A-T-T@successpodcast.com. I'd love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener email. 

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Next, you're going to get an exclusive chance to shape the show, including voting on guests, submitting your own personal questions that we’ll ask guests on air and much more. Lastly, you’re going to get a free guide we created based on listener demand, our most popular guide, which is called How to Organize and Remember everything. You can get it completely for free along with another surprise bonus guide by signing up and joining the email us today. Again, you can do that at successpodcast.com, sign up right at the homepage, or if you're on the go, just text the word “smarter”, S-M-A-R-T-E-R to the number 44222. 

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Don't forget, if you want to get all the incredible information we talk about in the show, links, transcripts, everything we discussed and much more, be sure to check out our show notes. You can get those at successpodcast.com, just hit the show notes button right at the top. 

Thanks again and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.

June 28, 2018 /Lace Gilger
Decision Making, Mind Expansion
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Blindspots, Bias, Billionaires and Bridgewater with Dr. Adam Grant

March 29, 2018 by Lace Gilger in Best Of, Decision Making

In this episode we discuss the relationship between bad ideas and creative genius, the three biggest lessons from studying the most successful hedge fund on earth, why a complete stranger may often be a better judge of your abilities than you are, the key things that stand in the way of developing more self awareness and how you can fix them, why it’s so important to invest in the ability to make better decisions, and much more with our guest Dr. Adam Grant. 

Dr. Adam Grant has been Wharton’s top-rated professor for six straight years and has been named a Fortune’s 40 under 40, as well as one of the world’s 10 most influential management speakers. He is the multi bestselling author of Give and Take, Originals and Option B which have been translated into over 35 languages. His work has been featured on Oprah, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and he is the host of the new TED Podcast, WorkLife...

  • You don’t know yourself as well as you think you do

  • There are two things that stand in the way of self awareness

  • We have blindspots that other can see, that we can’t

    1. Biases - the things we don’t want to see

  • We are better judges of our internal state, but much worse at judging our external behaviors than our friends and colleagues

  • We are motivated to have a positive image of ourself

  • A complete stranger is a better judge of your assertiveness, creativity, and intelligence after 8 minutes than you are of yourself (after your entire life!)

  • We all want to think of ourselves as being smart and creative

  • “Male pattern blindness”

  • Any time a trait is easy for others to see and hard for us to see - we are bad at judging it

  • Human blindspots are predictable and most people have the same kinds of blindspots

  • At Bridgewater they tape video + audio of every single meeting

  • Bridgewater was a fascinating place to study deep self awareness

  • No one has the right to hold a critical view without speaking up about it

  • Peer support in the workplace is vital

  • When we get criticized, we make the mistake of going to people to support and cheer us up - we need a “challenge network” to challenge our assumptions, push us, and see through our BS

  • When things are going poorly, people usually ignore the naysayers and dissenters, but the more you do that the worse things typically get - you should be doing the opposite

  • How do we avoid shooting the messenger when we receive negative feedback?

  • Any time you are about to receive negative feedback, get some praise / positive feedback in a positive domain to buffer your negative emotional response first

  • Why “feedback sandwiches” (praise, criticism, praise) doesn’t work as well as people think they do

  • If you’re praising, praise in a separate realm

  • “Democracy is a dumb idea for running a company” - some people’s decisions are objectively better than other people’s

  • The power of domain specific believability scores and how that’s shaped Bridgewater’s results in a positive way

  • Not all feedback is equal

  • Go around and look at your feedback sources and ask yourself two questions

  • What’s their track record in the skill you’re asking for feedback on?

    1. How well do they know YOU?

  • The three biggest lessons Adam learned from studying Bridgewater

  • Turn the idea of Devil’s advocate upside down

    1. Someone arguing for a minority view often turns the group against that view

      1. Don’t assign a devil’s advocate, unearth a genuine devil’s advocate - it helps groups make better decisions

      2. Authentic devil’s advocates create authentic divergent thinking

    2. You must speak up when you have a dissenting opinion and encourage people to speak up when they have a dissenting opinion

    3. Say to people “one of things I really value is when people disagree with me or when someone respectfully and thoughtfully challenges my beliefs"

    4. Ask people to “opt-in” to wanting feedback - you have to be willing to ask for it and opt-in to it

  • Why would a billionaire spend hours arguing about the placement of a white board?

  • Personality is really bad at predicting one specific behavior, but it’s great a predicting aggregate behavior

  • The marshmallow test, personality, and delayed gratification

  • Situations repeat themselves over and over again - tiny decisions about things like a whiteboard cascade through all decision-making processes

  • We look at each moment of our life as if thru a microscope, what we should do is look at them through a telescope and see how everything is a microcosm of something larger, similar to personality

  • By investing in improving your decisionmaking skills you accrue more and more interest on that over time

  • The mental model of positive EV thinking - looking at aggregate outcomes and not specific instances

  • The best model for psychology is meteorology and how that ties into Charlie Munger - power of thinking across academic discipline and building mental models from a wide array of academic disciplines

  • Lessons form Shakespeare, Edison, and Picasso to understand what makes them different from their contemporaries

  • The more BAD IDEAS you have, the more creative you are

  • We are too close to our own ideas to judge them accurately

  • One of the biggest predictors of creative results is raw output and being prolific

  • Your first idea is rarely your best idea

  • Research shows these conclusions across a huge array of domains - business, music, art, innovation tournaments, and more - the more ideas you create, the more valuable ideas you create

  • You don't max out on quality and originality until you have about 200 ideas on the table

  • How can we improve our creative forecasting skills?

  • Managers often have skewed incentives to reject new and creative ideas

  • What has worked in the past is at best irrelevant, or worst may be negatively correlated with success

  • If you can’t trust yourself and you can’t trust your boss who can you go to? Creative peers are the answer.

  • Fun fact - clowns are universally hated.

  • You can open your bosses mind by having them spend 5 minutes brainstorming for themselves, that will prime them to be more creative and less evaluative/judging

  • Your most promising idea is often the one you typically rank second, not first

  • Start with evaluating your challenge network - think about the people who’ve given you the best critical feedback in your life, who are those people, and how can you benefit from their criticism?

  • Example - send an article to your challenge network before publishing it

    1. Create a system to repeatedly engage them

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Thank you so much for listening!

Please SUBSCRIBE and LEAVE US A REVIEW on iTunes! (Click here for instructions on how to do that).

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This weeks episode is brought to you by our partners at Skillshare!

For a limited time, Skillshare is offering our listeners TWO MONTHS OF UNLIMITED CLASSES for only $0.99! That's UNLIMITED classes for two months for only $0.99. Go to www.skillshare.com/success to redeem this incredible offer NOW!

Skillshare is an online learning platform with over 18,000 classes in design, business, technology, and more. Whether you’re trying to deepen your professional skill-set, start a side hustle, or just explore something new, Skillshare will keep you learning in 2018 and beyond.

Again, Skillshare is offering our listeners the incredible deal of two whole months of UNLIMITED classes for only $0.99 so get out there and start learning at www.skillshare.com/success

SHOW NOTES, LINKS, & RESEARCH

  • [Personal Site] Adam Grant

  • [Article] “People Don't Actually Know Themselves Very Well” by Adam Grant

  • [TED Podcast] WorkLife with Adam Grant: A TED original podcast

  • [Article] Balancing on the Creative Highwire: Forecasting the Success of Novel Ideas in Organizations By Justin M. Berg

  • [Article] Creative productivity: A predictive and explanatory model of career trajectories and landmarks Summary by David Zach Hambrick

  • [TEDTalk] Who are you, really? The puzzle of personality by Brian Little

  • [Research Profile] Walter Mischel

  • [Research Article] Devil's advocate versus authentic dissent: stimulating quantity and quality by Charlan Nemeth, Keith Brown, and John Rogers

  • [Wiki Article] Dunning–Kruger effect

  • [Article] Research: We Drop People Who Give Us Critical Feedback by Francesca Gino

  • [Article] The Psychology of Change: Self-Affirmation and Social Psychological Intervention by Geoffrey L. Cohen and David K. Sherman

Episode Transcript


[00:00:06.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success introducing your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:11.8] MB: Welcome to the Science of Success, the number one evidence-based growth podcast on the internet with more than a billion downloads and listeners in over a hundred countries. In this episode we discuss the relationship between bad ideas and creative genius. We look at the three biggest lessons from studying the most successful hedge fund on earth. We talk about why a complete stranger may often be up better judge of your abilities than you are. We examine the key things that stand in the way of developing more self-awareness and how you can fix them. Look at why it's so important to invest in the ability to make better decisions and much more with our guest, Dr. Adam Grant. 

I'm going to give you three reasons why you should join our email list today by going to successpodcast.com and signing up right on the homepage. There's some amazing stuff that's only available to our email subscribers, so be sure to sign up, check out the email list as soon as possible. 

First; you’re going to get an awesome free guide that we created based on listener demand. This is our most popular guide. It's called How to Organize and Remember Everything. You can get it completely for free along with another surprise bonus guide when you sign up and join the email list today. Next, you’re going to get a curated weekly email from us every single Monday called Mindset Monday. Listeners have been loving this email. It’s short, simple, filled with interesting articles and insights, things we found fascinating within the last week. Lastly, you're going to get an exclusive chance to shape the show. You can vote on guests help us change our intro music, parts of the show, even submit your own personal questions to our guests, and much more. You can sign up by going to success podcast.com, signing up right on the homepage, or if you're out and about, if you're on the go, if you're driving around right now, just text the word “smarter”. That's “smarter” to the number 44222. That's “smarter” to 44222. 

In our previous episode we approach the concept of the self from a concrete and scientific perspective, not in an abstract or philosophical way. What are the hard sciences, like biology and physics, say about the existence of the self? Does the self exist from a psychological perspective? What is the science say and what does it mean for ourselves, our future and how we think about change and self-improvement? We explore the scientific search for the self with our guest, Dr. Robert Levine. If you want to discover who you truly are, listen to that episode. 

Now for the show today. 

[0:02:54.3] MB: Today, we have another amazing guest on the show, Dr. Adam Grant. Adam has been Wharton's top rated professor for six straight years and has been named to Fortune's 40 under 40, as well as one of the world's 10 most influential management speakers. He's the multi best-selling author of Give & Take, Originals and Option B which have been translated in over 35 languages. His work has been featured on Oprah, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and he’s the host of the new TED podcast called Worklife. 

Adam, welcome to the Science of Success. 

[0:03:24.2] AG: Thanks, Matt. Delighted to be here. 

[0:03:25.8] MB: Well, we’re very excited to have you on the show today. Huge fans of your work and your ideas, me and Austin. So we’re really thrilled to have you on here. I’d love to start out with a topic we talk a lot about on the show and something you wrote recently about the in the Atlantic, which is self-awareness and how people often don't really understand self-awareness or think that they’re a lot more self-aware than they are. Could you kind of share the thesis of that article and what it was about?

[0:03:53.9] AG: I love getting to talk to an audience that’s as fascinated by psychology and the evidence behind it as I am. This is a real treat. I think that what’s striking to me is that pretty much as long as I've been a psychologist, I've gotten the reaction from people, “Well, wait a minute, what could you possibly know about me that I don’t? I own my own mind.” 

I started thinking about that and kind of pushing back and saying, “Well, you know? You own a car, and you might even be the only one who drive it, but that doesn’t mean when the engine stops working, that you know what to do going under the hood to fix it.” 

I think that there are two things that stand in the way of self-awareness as I’ve read more and more the research on it. One is just basic blind spots. We have blind spots because there are things that other people can see that we can't, because we’re stuck inside our own head. So we have all these backstage access to what's going on internally, but we can't see independently from an outside view what our behavior looks like. What that means is that psychologically we’re better judges than our friends, and then definitely than strangers of our internal state. How anxious am I, for example. We’re much worse that judging our external behaviors, the parts of our personality that other people can see clearly, like how assertive am I?, for example. 

Then the other sort of big self-awareness challenge is not just blind spots, which are the things we can't see, but also biases, the things that we don't want to see. So we’re motivated to have a positive image of ourselves. There’s this really cool research by [inaudible 0:05:32.9], a psychologist who was trying to break down when are we better judges of our own personality versus when are other people more accurate than we are? 

So what she did was she had people rate themselves on a whole bunch of personality descriptions and then also some traits, like intelligence and creativity, and then she had their friends rate them. She got four of their friends to do it, and she also had some complete strangers interacted with him for about 8 minutes over a pizza, and then they made judgments too. 

Then she went and actually tested them in all these straight. So she measured their assertiveness, for example, by putting them in a leaderless group discussion and then coding the videotape to see who dominated the conversation and who was a little bit more hesitant. She gave them an IQ test to gauge their intelligence. She gave them a creativity challenge where you can actually measure how many ideas people generate and how novel they are within the group. 

So she does all of these, and then what she’s able to show is that the blind spots are pretty clearly in these external domains. So people were worse than their friends at judging their own assertiveness, but in the internal domains, they were better. When they rated their own anxiety versus their friends rated it, they did a better job than their friend did at predicting how nervous they would be giving a public speech when there was an evaluator watching and not smiling and they were being recorded. 

But then there is another dimension beyond just the internal sort of external blind spot issue, and that’s the bias issue. So people turned out to be terrible at judging their own intelligence and their own creativity, because we all want to think of ourselves as smart and creative, and so people tended to be overconfident. That was especially true among men in the study. I guess you could call it male pattern blindness or something like that. 

I think the big lesson here is that any time a trait is hard to be for us and easy to see for others — Sorry, I’ll say that again. I think the big lesson here is that any time a trait is easy for other people to see or hard for us to admit, we can't trust our own judgment of it. 

[0:07:39.6] MB: You had a great phrase in that article that I think kind of underscored this point, which is you said that human blind spots are predictable. Can you elaborate on that and kind of explain how that ties into this?

[0:07:51.5] AG: I guess, I looked a lot of my life thinking that I had different blind spots from everyone else I knew, and that how clearly you could see yourself depended on whether you were surrounded by people who were willing to tell you the truth, basically. 

I think what psychologists had discovered, which I find so interesting, is that, actually, most people have the same kinds of blind spot. It tends to be those things that you can’t see because you're stuck inside your own head, and I guess I first figured this out when I was teaching negotiations. I would have some MBA students and executives who negotiated like sharks and they lost trust, and then others who are just major people pleasers and they were too accommodating and they failed to stand up for themselves. I would have them negotiate and then I’d give them feedback. I’d have their counterparts give them feedback and they'd always under correct. 

Finally, I just decided, “You know what? I’m going to videotape them.” I’d sit down and watch the tapes with them and they were just horrified. They’d say, “Is that what people have been seeing for years? Is that really how I come across?” It’s kind of like hearing your own voice on tape for the first time. I really didn't even need to say anything after that, because once they could observe the behavior from an outside view, they were often much more — They were much more prepared to correct it and they were motivated to correct it, because they got it. 

I think that's something we should all be in the habit of doing, is If you're an athlete, you'd review the game tape after every single competition. I know, I used to a springboard diver, and in my diving days in high school and college I would watch videos of every practice in slow motion, because there’s one thing to have my coach tell me what he was seeing. There’s a whole another thing for me to see it myself. Then very frequently, I wouldn't argue back as much. I just go and do it. 

I think that's one way that we can spot the pattern blind spots, or I should say that differently. So if you want to recognize your blind spot, the patterns are there are things that you can't see from inside, and you often a videotape or a audiotape helps make those visible. 

[0:10:02.0] MB: I love that idea, and I think feedback is — If you look at something like deliberate practice or just improving and growing in general, feedback is such a vital component of that. How do we — I think it's really clear in a field like sports or may be a competitive activity, like chess or gambling or something like, or poker specifically, but in a field like business that there's a much kind of murkier connection between action and output, how do we tighten those feedback loops or kind of get the “game tape” so that we can get that feedback and help spot our blind spots?

[0:10:36.3] AG: That was one of the things that I wanted to understand when I lunched this podcast with TED. So the vision behind the Work Life was I would invite myself in to organizations, they’d go to the extreme and something that we all either struggle with or curious to — Excuse me. Something that we all struggle with are curious to learn more about and try to master.

For feedback, I went to Bridgewater, the hedge fund that’s been named the most successful in the world, where they do videotape and audiotape every meeting and in conversations with a few exceptions. First I thought it was going to Big Brother, and very quickly I walked in and I’m being videotaped and audiotaped and after a few minutes I forgot it. Sort of the real me came out. 

Ray Dalio, the founder, pointed out that he thinks it's a lot like what it must feel like to be on reality TV, where anytime you're sitting at home watching you’re like, “How do these people not realize that their behavior is being broadcast? They would never act that way.” The answer is you can't be on self-monitoring or evaluating all the time. 

So Bridgewater was a really cool place to understand these dynamic, because they believe so much in radical transparency. One of their principles is, is that no one has the right hold a critical opinion without speaking up about it. 

So the insight I walked away with is I was thinking about networks wrong, or at least I had my view of — My view of networks was incomplete. I've read a ton of research on the value of support networks. We know that if you have mentors and sponsors, your career is more likely to advance. We also know that pure your support in the workplace is about as important as support from above, and yet when we get criticized, we make the mistake of going to our cheerleaders and we lean on the people who encourage us, which is great for motivation, but we need another group of people, and that's what Bridgewater is so good at trying to build. I’ve come to call that a challenge network. The support network is the people who build you up when you're down. The challenge network is the group of people who tell you you're not there yet, right? Who push you because they really care about helping you get better. 

As I watch this happen in Bridgewater, I was thinking about some research that Jim Westphalen is calling [inaudible 0:12:51.5] on what happens to CEOs when their firms underperform? So they surveyed hundreds of CEO and they want to know basically when your company’s performance is objectively bad, what do you do? Td they found that on average what most CEOs do is they then lean on their support network, which are their friends who are in very similar jobs, in very similar industries, in very similar companies and they ignore their naysayers and their dissenters who usually have a fresher point of view, who might be in a not sort of drink in the same Kool-Aid or stuck inside the same bubble as them. The more that they do that, the worse their company's performance gets. 

So they end up sort of thinking inside the inner circle when they need to be going outside that circle. Of course, that's more pronounced that their subsequent research showing that if you’re a narcissist, you’re at greater risk for doing that. So narcissist are especially likely to ignore objectives, sort of failure signals from the market. They’re more drawn to social praise and they’re re more likely to fall victim to flattery from the yes-men or the brown-nosers who surround them. I think we've all been in that situation. 

Francesca Gino did some studies on this where she asked people to just identity the colleagues that they went to for feedback, and then rate how much are they encouraging and praising you versus criticizing and challenging you. Then she followed up a few minutes later to find out what — Excuse me. She followed up a few months later to find out what would happen to these relationships, and she found that just like those underperforming CEOs, that what most people would do is they went out of their way to avoid their critics. 

So if in the last six months somebody has given you really harsh feedback, you've done everything in your power to drop them from your life. In the short run, that might feel good, it might help with your motivation, but it destroys your opportunity to learn. I think we all need to embrace that challenge network if we want to reach our potential. 

[0:14:51.9] MB: How do we open ourselves up to that challenging feedback and kind of fight back against the natural tendency to shoot the messenger, for lack of better term? 

[0:15:02.7] AG: My favorite research on this, hands down, comes from I guess the literature on self-affirmation. So Claude Steele at Stanford kicked it off several decades ago. Sherman & Cohen have done a nice review in the last decade or so, and the idea is that it’s way easier to take criticism in one domain when we’ve praised in another. As long as we have this tendency to sort of gravitate toward the people who give us positive reinforcement, we might as well use that to our advantage and say, “Okay. Anytime I’m going to seek out criticisms or somebody reaches out to let me know that they're about to give me some negative feedback, what I can do is I can buffer myself against the blow of that by looking for some positive feedback in a completely separate domain.”

So if I'm about to get feedback on a creative project I have just worked on. What I want to do is I want to first go and figure out, “Okay. What are completely unrelated things that I've done well lately?” So I might review a good decision I made in the past few week. I might go and check my calendar and see that I've actually been extra productive and I’ve cleared some things off my to-do list. Once I've affirmed a skill or a value or an achievement in a different domain, now when I come into this creative project I’m much less likely to see that as the heart of my identity. So it’s less crushing then when somebody tells me that my creativity was really, really, really poor in this particular project and it seemed totally unoriginal. 

I think that obviously we can do this as feedback givers, not just receivers. So many people love to dish out a feedback sandwich and say, “Let me praise you, and then I’ll criticize you and then I’ll praise you again. So we get to start and end on a high note,” which the feedback sandwich does not tastes as good as it looks, if you look at the research. Because, one, you people don't trust the praise when it comes first. They’re waiting for the other shoe to drop, and they think you're just trying to butter them up. 

Then two, even if they do, primacy and recency effects are much stronger than whatever we might process in between. So you're more likely to remember the first and last things that happened than the middle, and that means the praise on both ends might drain out criticism. What I always recommend to people instead is to say either just put the criticism on the table, and then you can end with some praise or at least some encouragement about your confidence in the person, or flip it and say, “All right. I’m going to praise first, but I’ve got to make sure that’s a separate realm. Then when I give the criticism, my hope is that you've heard it a little bit more, because you had something else, some other talent to fall back on to stake your ego or your self-esteem on.” That tends to work much better than the alternative. 

[0:17:46.6] MB: Kind of a corollary of that and something that I think you touched on in the interview with Ray Dalio was this kind of idea of believability weighted feedback, and that feedback varies based on how credible the person giving it to you is and sort of the idea that not all feedback is equal. How can we implement that when we’re about feedback from colleagues, friends, etc., and looking at ways to improve ourselves?

[0:18:11.5] AG: It’s such an interesting question. One of the things that I love at Bridgewater is that they think that democracy is a dumb idea for running a company, because the whole idea of democracy is that every person's opinion or vote has equal weight, and their point is that in the workplace, it doesn't and it shouldn't. 

There's a reason that we promote people, because we trust their decision-making skills or they've demonstrated a particular level of expertise in a certain domain. But Bridgewater also doesn't allow the people who have risen the power to drive every decision and every piece of feedback. What they want to do is they want to know — And they 77 different domains where they have people rate each other regularly and they want to know, “Okay. How credible are you in this domain?” Because you might be really great at, let's say, analyzing markets, but really terrible at analyzing human relationships, or vice versa. So instead of having an overall believability score, you get a domain-specific believability score, which is your track record of performance in that domain, which is probably at some level relevant to whether your — Let me say that different. Sorry. 

You get a domain specific believability score, which is more or less a probability of being right in this domain based on your track record in the past. So I think if we wanted to — Anybody who wanted to try to simulate that in your own life. I think what you do is you go around and you look your feedback sources and you ask yourself a few questions. The first one is what is their track record in that domain? If they demonstrated real expertise or confidence in the very skill you're asking for feedback on, the more they have, the more credible they tend to be. The ones who don’t I think are at serious risk for the Dunning Kruger effect, the unskilled and unaware of it, where people who are novices often are the most overconfident and the most likely to overestimate their skillset. So those are the people whose opinions usually want to discount. 

Then the other question is; how well do they know you? I will never forget when I was in grad school, my first semester, I was encouraged to seek out one professor who was supposed to really good at big picture career advice. So I emailed him — I cold email him and he wrote back and he said, “I’m happy to meet for coffee. Send me your resume and we’ll talk it over.”

I sat down with him and he said, “You are insane. You're doing four times more projects than you should be, and you get a cut 90% of this stuff or else you’re never even going to graduate, let alone get a job.” At first I was a little devastated, because I thought, “All right. This is a guy who has really excelled in this field, and so he has a lot of expertise.” But the more I thought about it, the more I realized, he didn’t know a thing about me. It was the first time we'd met. He'd never seen any of my work. He didn't have a sense of my motivation or my abilities. So how credible could he really be? I decided that I was going to make sort of my motivation in grad school day by day to prove Jim wrong. 

I actually would wake up about once a week and think, “Okay. How do I prove to Jim that in fact I could do all these projects?” That became a little bit of extra source of fuel when I got papers rejected or when I got negative feedback in the classroom to say, “All right. Yeah. This is not fun, but I still have to show Jim that I wasn't crazy.” I think that that how well do they know you, how credible are they not just on the field, but also on your work to me as it is a critical set of questions.

[0:21:53.6] MB: In your time with Ray and the work you did with Bridgewater, I'm curious, they’ve obviously build a kind of a radically different organization, which in many ways is created radically different results for what they've done and led them be so successful. What were kind of some of the simplest or most practical takeaways that you found that are kind of the, say, sort of from an 80/20 perspective, the easiest things to implement without completely upending the culture of an organization or the structure of your relationships?

[0:22:26.4] AG: Yeah. I'll give you — There were three things that I've actually taken away and applied in another organization that anybody could adopt pretty easily. The first one is that they really turn the idea of devil’s — Excuse me. They really turn the idea of devil’s advocates upside down. So the research on this by [inaudible 0:22:43.6] has been fascinating to me for a long time. What [inaudible 0:22:47.4] has shown is that what most people do when they're trying to get a different opinion is they assign somebody in the room to play the role of devil’s advocate, and when she gets grouped together to make decisions and she randomly assigns one person to advocate for a minority view, not only does it not help. On average, it makes the group more convinced of the majority opinion that they already liked. So it backfires. 

When you break down why, there’s sort of two mechanisms at play. One is that the person is just playing a role. So they don't take it seriously enough and they don’t argue forcefully enough. Two; everybody else knows they're playing a role. The rest of people and in that room sit there and say, “All right! Now we’ve heard the person playing devil’s advocate. Check! We can go right back to what we already believed,” and they just all shoot down the argument pretty quickly. 

Of course, you do need dissenting opinions, and what [inaudible 0:23:41.1] shows is that instead of assigning a devil’s advocate, you want to unearth a devil’s advocate. Find the genuine dissenter who authentically disagrees and invite that person to the conversation. If you do that, the group’s probability of making a good decision goes up. The person argues more passionately. The group gives more weight to it, because they know it's a real viewpoint. 

What I work with leaders on, what I often hear for pushback is what, “I get it. I want to hear that person's voice. But what if they’re wrong? What if I invite them into the conversation and they steer us in an unproductive direction?” I say good, because it gives me more research to do. No. I say good, because I am just so struck by the evidence that minority opinions improve decision-making creativity even when they’re incorrect. When you hear an authentic dissenter speak up, even if it's not the right view, it stimulates divergent thinking instead of convergent thinking, and that means that the group is more likely to reevaluate the decision process, go back and gather new information, update their sense of what the criteria are, and that’s good for decision quality and for original thinking even if it's not the right opinion to begin with. 

So going back to Bridgewater, one of the things they do is when they have a big decision to make, they actually will run a poll. It's an anonymous poll at first and they’ll ask, “Okay. How many people think we should do A, and how many people think we should do reverse A?” Then they get a sense of the distribution in the room and then they will invite three of the authentic dissenters to argue against three of the people who are supporting the decision. I think that’s such an effective way to surface the real dissent in the room and make sure it's valued and heard and considered seriously.” So that would be one. Do you want me to go through two others or you want to move forward?

[0:25:33.3] MB: I’d love to hear the other two strategies, yeah. 

[0:25:35.7] AG: Sure. I’ll try to talk shorter. I think I've been overly empowered by your statement that I should feel free to go very deep. 

[0:25:42.4] MB: No. Go deep. We want you to go deep. That’s why you’re here.

[0:25:46.5] AG: I feel like I’m rambling for a long time, but I’ll try to be a little more succinct here. So a second thing that I think is exciting at Bridgewater is — I mentioned they have this principle that no one has the right to hold a critical opinion without speaking about it. That's the opposite of what I've seen in most workplaces, where if you have a critical opinion, you have no right to speak up about it. But the challenge is to make that real, and the way that Bridgewater has done is they've actually extended their performance evaluations to include — You get rated on whether you are challenging your boss and sort of asserting your viewpoint, raising critical perspective even if they might — They have a term for this actually, which is it’s something like rubbing salt on the wound. I think that — Actually, I can say that more clearly. I will say they basically evaluate you on whether you're fighting for right, even when other people disagree. Are you willing to poke the bear a little bit if there’s a good reason to do it?

I think we could all do that, right? When we give people feedback, why not sit down with them and say, “You know what? I'm going to give you this feedback. I just wanted to let you know, one things I really value is people being willing to disagree with me.” Or when we start working with new colleagues to say right off the bat, “Hey, you know what? One of my favorite features of a collaboration is when somebody challenges my assumptions and my beliefs respectfully and thoughtfully,” and let's actually make that part of the way we evaluate the quality of our relationship, is are we having good healthy debate. 

Then the last thing that I think is pretty actionable for anybody from Bridgewater is they ask you to opt in you want a feedback. They say, “Look. We don’t want to work with somebody who says, “This process is not for me,” and we think you’re going to take it a lot better if you decided you want it.” 

I think so often we have feedback conversations, we don't do that. We’re so nervous about the discussion or we’re feeling guilty about hurting somebody's feelings, that we just whip off the Band-Aid and get it over with, as supposed to sort of opening the conversation by saying, “I noticed a few things and I was wondering if you wanted a few thoughts, or I'm trying to give more feedback to the people whose work I really value. I’ve been told I don't give enough critical feedback. I’ve been trying hard to come up with some. If you're interested, I’m happy to have that discussion and I’d love to hear your feedback too.” I think just initiating that opt-in process is something we can do every time we give feedback, and for that matter every time we receive it too. 

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[0:29:41.5] MB: How to someplace like Bridgewater avoid almost a sort of paralysis by spending so much time arguing and debating and figuring out who's right, who's wrong, all these kind of pieces of the puzzle?

[0:29:55.2] AG: Well, I think that they believe that — It's funny. Bridgewater is a place where I think a lot of people arrive there and they're really frustrated by what they perceive is inefficiency. I remember watching one meeting where Ray did about — I don’t know. It must've been over an hour of a diagnosis of why a whiteboard was a few inches higher than that it was supposed to be. It had been in the wrong spot. He had requested it be moved, and then it wasn't in the right spot. They spent a huge amount of time diagnosing why that decision went wrong. I’ve looked at that thinking, “Are you people insane? Why would you spend all that time in that when you're managing $160 billion?” It’s not like the placement of a whiteboard has any real consequences for your work.” 

I have to say as I was debating this back-and-forth with Ray, he did change my mind on it, and he changed my mind in part, because one of the arguments he made reminded me of one of my favorite ideas in psychology. The idea — This is Walter Mischel. Mischel back in the 60s, this sort of devastating attack of personality psychology where he said, “Look. Personality traits don't predict behavior. We have the whole science trying to assess how extroverted you are and how anxious or emotionally stable or neurotic you are.” When you actually measure these traits, they do a terrible job predicting really anything that matters in your life choices or your success at work. 

Why do we have these? We have a rich social psychology that says, “The situation influences a lot of behavior and we’re all kind of — We manage to be different people in different situations, and personalities are not as important as we thought they were.” 

I have ever mentor, Brian Little, who’s referred to the aftermath as Mischel shock, because so many personality, psychologists all of a sudden felt like their life's work was under threat. There were all sorts of updates to that. First, we found out that personality is really bad at predicting one specific moment of behavior, but it’s actually pretty good at predicting aggregated behaviors. 

If I wanted to know, Matt, how you’re organized you’re going to be at 3 PM today, your personality is probably not going to tell me much about that. But if I wanted to know on average how organize you’re going to be for the next month every day at 3 PM, well, personality lot more useful then, right? Because we have a global trait, and that’s going to predict a pattern of behavior and not a specific instance of behavior, which is more like a blip. 

We got a bunch of updates to the idea that, actually, how much people fluctuate their behavior, that's a personality trait too. Mark Snyder called it self-monitoring. High self-monitors are the people who are constantly adapting to meet the expectations of the environment. Low self-monitors say, “This is who I am and I’m going to try to be the same person regardless of the circumstances,” and they’re driven more by their sort of internal compass than external accused. So you start to break that down and personality does a better job predicting the behaviors of low self- monitors than high self-monitors. 

What’s funny is after decades of this debate, Walter Mischel back around and said, “Actually, I got this wrong.” It’s not surprising that he came back with that, because he's a psychologist who did pioneering experiments on the marshmallow test where he found that the kids who were able to delay the gratification of eating one marshmallow at toddlers, in order to get two marshmallows about 15 minutes later did better in school and had more stable relationships as much as a dozen or so years later. 

He was a believer in individual differences, right? That ability to delay gratification and the exercise of control. That is a personality trait. So he comes back around and he says, “Actually, we’ve been thinking about personality all wrong. We should really think about personality as a set of if/then statement where we all have a bunch of them, which are our tendencies to be organized and disciplined, to be friendly, to be outgoing, to be open-minded, and so on. But those don't come out equally in every moment. They're different if that activate different thens, and we all have signatures. He said, if we really want to predict your behavior and understand what you're going to do in a given situation, we have to know what part of your personality that situation activates. 

So long detour away from Bridgewater, but this is where I landed with Ray. He said, “Look. The reason that I'm going to go and analyze a whiteboard placement is because situations repeat over and over again.” This tiny little decision of adjusting the height of a whiteboard is actually a microcosm of our decision-making process, and there's something about that if that activated the wrong then in the group of people who are supposed to fix it. 

So if I can get to the bottom of it and analyze it for a trivial decision, then maybe we can prevent that if then pattern from repeating. We can either activate a different if or we can find the people who have the right set of then to handle that issue that required a lot of attention to detail. I thought that was so interesting and it really got me thinking about how in fact all of our work and all of our lives are just the same kinds of situations repeating over and over again. We don’t see that because we tend to look at those situations through a microscope when we’re in them. We see all the idiosyncrasies of them. 

What we really should be doing is zooming out and looking at them through a telescope, which is when we’re able to see how this one argument that I'm having with a coworker is actually sort of triggered by the same fundamental disagreement that the last four were too. So I think that it seems like time wasted, but ultimately it's time well spent if you can help you change a whole pattern of behavior. Longest answer ever. 

[0:35:49.7] MB: No. That was great. You brought it all the way back around, which is awesome. It's funny, one of the things that we talk a lot about on the show and I’m a huge believer in people like you and Ray Dalio obviously, kind of help shape that thinking as well. But is this idea that we — I call it kind of the art of decision-making, but basically if you really hone your ability to make better decisions, it cascades through everything in your life, whether you're buying a car, a new house, business decisions, making an investment, etc. I almost look at it as if you're harnessing the power of compounding by getting better at making decisions. It's sort of cascades through everything that you do from that point forward. 

[0:36:27.3] AG: I love the idea of talking about that in terms of compounding. It never occurred to me to use that language for it, and I think that's exactly what you're doing. By investing and improving your decision-making skills, you're accumulating more and more interest on that investment over time. If you don't do it, if you just treat each situation as completely different from all the others, then you really fail to learn anything from the last [inaudible 0:36:53.0] that might apply to tomorrow’s. 

[0:36:54.9] MB: Yeah. I think that's a really, really good insight. The other thing that I think is great, and your analogy with personality was really relevant, but this whole notion, there's a lot of different systems where you might have a really kind of a large amount of randomness in the short term, but the kind of outcome is really predictable and aggregate. If you look at everything from kind of poker, right? If you're making positive decisions, positive expected value decisions, in the short term, you might end up losing a bunch of hands are going broke, but over a long time horizon, that variance kind of evens out. 

If you look at something like whether, it was kind of the distinction between weather versus climate. It’s really hard to predict sort of short-term variations in the weather, but over time, over a longer time horizon, the climate is actually extremely predictable. So I think that's a great analogy and almost, really, a really relevant mental model to think about as well. 

[0:37:42.1] AG: Yeah. I think it's a mental model that we should all use more often to say, “Look. Any time you have a model, you should be trying to predict the outcome — You should be trying to predict an aggregate of the outcome. You want to predict a pattern of behavior. You want to predict what the climate is going to do over multiple years, as opposed to multiple hours.” 

Brian Little, the personality psychologists, mentioned earlier, he said that he thinks that often one of the things that actually both frustrated me and hooked me on psychology was when Brian said, “Look. I think we have the wrong model often when we’re trying their think about what psychology is supposed to do. We’re not doing physics. We’re not doing sort of hard science. We’re doing social science,” and people are much, much more complicated in the sense that we don't operate by stable laws. There’s no law of gravity governing my decision-making process. 

So he said he actually felt the best model for our field would be meteorology, that predicting human behavior is at least as hard as predicting the weather if you look at all the complex factors interacting to affect it. I hated that it first, but the more I thought about it, the more interesting it became as a puzzle. If we could get a little bit better at predicting human behavior, then we could probably make fewer awful choices and we can try to use our knowledge of psychology to help people live better lives. 

[0:39:11.6] MB: I mean, that makes me think of Charlie Monger, who’s one of my all-time favorite thinkers. It's funny, because you talk about and he writes a lot about kind of building this toolkit of mental models across a huge array of academic disciplines, and that sounds very kind of amorphous and ethereal, but that's a perfect example of really concretely bringing that to bear in the sense that if you study meteorology, there's actually some really practical applications for how to think about psychology and how to think about applying psychology to making better decisions and living your life. 

[0:39:42.3] AG: Yeah. It just can't tell me whether I should wear a raincoat today. 

[0:39:45.7] MB: That's right. This is going to be kind of a hard segue, but I want to get into some other kind of really important concepts and talk about them briefly. One of the things that you wrote about in Originals that I think is, to me, kind of one of the really important kind of fundamental conclusions was this notion of output and how that kind of impacts originality and creativity. Could you talk a little bit about how the power of having bad ideas and creating kind of prolific output is really important in being an original?

[0:40:16.3] AG: Yeah. There’s a psychologist, Dean Simonton, who put this idea on the map. He studied what he calls is creative productivity, which is basically both the quantity and the quality of creative output. But he doesn’t just study it among ordinary people. He does this historiographic analyses of eminent creative people throughout their lives and across centuries. 

He studied Shakespeare, and Edison and Picasso and compared them to their peers to try to figure out what makes them different. He had this finding that sort of knocked me out of my chair when I first read it. I was reading his research and he said, in a nutshell, that the more bad ideas you have, the more creative you are. I read that and I thought, “What? How could this be true?” 

I thought I always had this vision of creative people as dreaming up there masterpiece and then going and executing on it. Not really tinkering with a bunch of other possibilities, right? It’s hard to imagine that Shakespeare didn't immediately know Romeo and Juliet or Hamlet as he envisioned it, or the moment it struck him, that he didn’t know that’s the one. 

What Simonton shows very clearly in his data and now we have experiments also showing that it’s s true for ordinary people, not just sort of outlier original thinkers, is a huge part of creativity is the volume of ideas that you generate. Part of that is because we’re too close to our own ideas to judge them accurately. 

One of the studies that Simonton sort of launched and [inaudible 0:41:52.8] and others had followed up on is Beethoven is a self-critic. You have roughly 70 of Beethoven's compositions where he actually wrote letters to people who knew him well, like his friends and contemporaries, evaluating his own work. So he got a sense of what kind of self-critic he was. He committed lots of false positives where he thought a composition was brilliant and the expert really didn't think it was particularly great. Then also committed plenty of false negatives, where he said, “Yeah, I'm really not happy with this work,” and it became a classic. 

You see form that work and lots of subsequent research that we are often too close to our own ideas to judge them just like we’re too close to our own minds sometimes to see them clearly. You need lots of ideas just because you can't trust your own judgment. You also need lots of ideas because your first idea is rarely your best idea. The first idea that you have is usually the easiest one to think of. It’s either sort of a rare Eureka moment or something that's relatively simple and obvious. 

You want those second, third and fourth thoughts. Simonton was able to show this between creatives. So if you look at Beethoven, Bach and Mozart, one of the things that differentiates them from their peers as they produced not just a few more, but hundreds more compositions, into the 600 and 700. At least in Bach’s case, I think about a thousand, when most of their peers we’re in the sort of below a hundred range. And there's a really nice linear relationship — number of compositions that you do in a lifetime and your eventual greatness. 

I think that's because the more of those variations you run, the more experiments you try, the more likely you are to stumble on to something that's truly original. We see this in all kinds of domains. So a couple colleagues, Christian [inaudible 0:43:48.1] and Carl Ulrich, who studied people trying to create new products. They look at these innovation tournaments where you just have people submit ideas and then peers and subject matter experts vote on them and the question is; which of them are most promising? And then you advance in then the next round and eventually bet on some ideas. They found that a typical brainstorming session might produce 10 to 20 ideas, but you don’t max out on quality and in originality until you have about 200 ideas on the table, which is why you see that when Pixar makes a movie like Cars, they will consider about 500 scripts. It’s why you'll see when Fisher-Price makes a toy, they’ll consider about 4,000 concepts before honing in on a final 12. You need a very, very, very big haystack to have a better shot at finding a needle. 

[0:44:36.9] MB: I love the kind of example from Beethoven, and I think Simonton wrote about this, this similar corollary, that idea, which is basically that even the most creative and successful people, these kind of creative geniuses, etc., had essentially zero predictive ability to determine whether their next kind of project would succeed or not, which I just found fascinating. 

[0:44:59.2] AG: Yeah. That turns out to be an individual difference too, right? Some people turn out to be more accurate self-critics than others, but no one is anywhere near perfect. I have a former student, Justin Berg, who wanted to follow up on that and figure out how we can all improve our creative forecasting skills. 

He studied circus artists, I think Cirque du Soleil. He got over 100 of them to submit videos of brand-new acts that had never been seen before, and then he had different groups rate them, actually have them rank them. So groups got to watch a bunch of different videos, ranked them from best to worst, and then he sent them out to over 13,000 audience members. Not only had the audiences evaluate them, he also had the audiences donate their own money if they wanted to the performers as an indication of would you pay to see this person in action? 

He found that the worst judges of the performances were the circus artists themselves judging their own act. They would they would say things like, “This my act. How could it not be amazing?” It was just too easy for them to fall in love with their work. But then he went to managers. They are the gatekeepers. It's their job to pick ideas. He found that they were almost as bad as the circus performers themselves, and they’re bad for the opposite reason. Instead of being too positive, they tended to be too negative. Especially on the truly original ideas, they were disproportionately likely to reject the most promising, most novel ideas. 

I think that seems to happen for two reasons. One is cute incentives. If you bet on a bad idea, everyone it will know and it could embarrass your career. Whereas if you reject a good idea, no one will ever find out. At some level you say, “All right. Am I going to stick my neck out for an unproven idea, or am I going to play it safe and just pass up this this weird idea?”

The other thing that happened to managers was they tend to build a prototype through years of experience. So they would say, “All right. When I see a new idea, I’m going to compare it to all the ideas that have worked before,” and the more different it was, the more likely they were to reject. But that doesn’t make any sense. If you're trying to be original, what's been successful in the past is as best, be relevant and it might even be negatively correlated with what’s going to work tomorrow, which is why you see examples like Seinfeld and Harry Potter getting rejected by industry executives, because you can't make a sitcom about nothing where no one likes any of the characters. You can't write a children's book that that’s long, and it turns out that the people deepest in the industry are the most blind to ways that you can deviate from the prototypes. 

And so [inaudible 0:47:31.2], well who can you trust? If you can trust yourself and you can't trust your boss, who do you go to? He found a third group that was excellent at creative forecasting, which was creative peers, circus artists judging each other's ideas. They had this great sort of distance so they could tell you, “That act where you dress up like a clown, don't do that. No one likes clowns.” Which is actually a data point in the study; Clowns Are Universally Hated. But there's also the flip of that, which is unlike the managers, these creative peers are really invested in seeing new ideas takeoff. So instead of looking at an idea and saying, “Eew! That's weird.” They would look at it and say, “Huh! That’s weird,” and they're much more likely to give it a chance. 

Actually two quick things that Justin discovered which I think are really powerful is, one, you can get other people if your boss is not open to ideas, you can open your boss's mind. Before your boss judges other people's ideas, just have your boss spend five minutes brainstorming him or herself. That five minutes of brainstorming is enough to take your boss out of sort of an evaluative mindset where they're looking for reasons to say no and into a more open, creative mindset where they're looking for reasons to say, “Maybe.” 

Then the other thing is Justin wanted to improve people's judgment of their own ideas. So one of his experiments, he had people — They generated 10 to 15 ideas and then they had to rank them from favorite to least favorite, and he found that your most promising idea is not on average the one you rank first. It's the one you rank second. That first idea is the one that you are still passionate about that you just can't see it clearly. 

Whereas idea number two, you have a little bit more distance, a little more objectivity and you're more likely to recognize the flaws, but also have enough enthusiasm about the idea to try to fix the flaws. So I realized that some people are probably going to try to game the system and say, “Wait. I’m just going to take my favorite idea and call it my second favorite and then I'll be good,” and that doesn't work. But I think there's something to be said for your next favorite idea as one that has a lot of potential. 

[0:49:38.3] MB: What would be one piece of homework that you would give as kind of a concrete action steps for listeners to implement some of the things we’ve talked about today?

[0:49:46.9] AG: Oh! I think if I were going to give one piece of homework, I would say start by evaluating your challenge network. So think about the people who’ve given you the best critical feedback throughout your career or throughout your life and ask yourself, “Okay. First, who are those people? Secondly, how do I build in a regular system of engaging them to benefit from their criticism knowing that I trust the quality of their feedback and that I believe they care about helping me improve?” I guess my version of this is whenever I write an article, I have my challenge network that I send it to for feedback. There are four or five people there are sort of go-to sources, and then I know they will tell me what arguments don't make sense, what ideas are not interesting. I also know that they care about helping me write better articles. So they’ll also say, “You know, in that last paragraph, there’s actually a gem here that you should written the whole article about it.” Then I have my work cut out for me. I think if you identify your challenge network and then you create a system or a process for engaging them regularly for feedback, you will become less defensive and more open and you’ll also get better information. 

[0:51:00.4] MB: Where can listeners find you and your work online?

[0:51:03.8] AG: It's kind of you to ask. For anyone who’s motivated to do that, at adamgrant.net I have everything I’ve have ever published up there. You can download lot of articles and TED Talks. I do a free monthly newsletter called Granted on work in psychology where I answer and read questions and then I also share some of my favorite articles of the month. Then I guess for anybody who’s into podcast, which I suspect is everyone here. For people who are excited to add more podcasts to their listening schedule, Work Life is now available everywhere you get a podcast. It's just like all the good ones, free. 

[0:51:42.2] MB: Well, Adam, thank you so much for coming on the show. Incredible insights, wisdom, so many things that I would've loved to go deeper on, but so much valuable information and really, really appreciate your time and your insights. 

[0:51:53.6] AG: It was a pleasure to be here. Thank you for asking such interesting and thought-provoking questions. I really will work hard to cut my answers in half next time.

[0:52:01.3] MB: All right. Cool. 

[0:52:02.5] MB: Thank you so much for listening to the Science of Success. We created this show to help you, our listeners, master evidence-based growth. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story or just say hi, shoot me an email. My email is matt@successpodcast.com. That's matt@successpodcast.com. I'd love to hear from you and I read and respond to every single listener email. 

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Remember, the greatest compliment you can give us is a referral to a friend either live or online. If you enjoy this episode, please leave us an awesome review and subscribe on iTunes, because that helps boost the algorithm, that helps us move up the iTunes rankings, it helps more people discover the Science of Success. 

Don't forget, if you want to get all the incredible information we talked about in the show, links, transcripts, everything we discussed and much more, be sure to check out our show notes. You can get those at successpodcast.com, just at the show notes button right at the top. 

Thanks again, and we'll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.


March 29, 2018 /Lace Gilger
Best Of, Decision Making
89 - The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success Is (Mostly) Wrong with Eric Barker(3)-01.png

The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success Is (Mostly) Wrong with Eric Barker

August 24, 2017 by Lace Gilger in Best Of, Focus & Productivity, Decision Making

In this episode we ask what really produces success by looking at what separates truly successful people from the rest, we examine many common and conflicting “success maxims” and look at what the data actually says really works, we dig deep into the vital importance of knowing yourself and your own strengths, look at the power of aligning your work with your environment, and discuss the dangers of constantly overcommitting your time with Eric Barker.

Eric Barker is the creator of the blog “Barking Up The Wrong Tree” - with over 290,000 subscribers.  His work is syndicated by Time Magazine, Business Insider and he has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and more. Just recently, his new book Barking up the Wrong Tree: The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success Is (Mostly) Wrong was named a Wall Street Journal Bestseller.

  • The future is already here, its just not evenly distributed

  • How Eric took a myth-busters approach to success maxims and figured out what really works

  • Vital importance of knowing yourself and your strengths

  • Why you need to align with a context and environment that rewards your skills

  • What really produces success? What separates the very successful from the rest of us?

  • We take alot of the common maxims we hear that conflict about success and look at what the DATA actually says about them

  • What are intensifiers and why should you know about them?

  • When are negatives positives? How can you know when it’s important?

  • Context really reveals when and how these maxims work or not

  • Do nice guys really finish last? What does the science say?

  • Why, in some contexts, being a jerk can pay off (and when it can backfire)

  • Strategies to improve self knowledge and know yourself more deeply

  • Pursuing your passion doesn't always lead to happiness, but pursuing what you’re good at more frequently does lead to happiness

  • Research is clear - focus on what you’re good at - and find a way to compensate for your weaknesses.

  • Understanding your strengths allows you to plan the right way to go about achieving your big picture goals

  • Deluding yourself is often worst situation of all and you frequently end up working against yourself

  • Do quitters never win? Should we quit or persevere? How do we think about Grit?

  • The vital importance of opportunity cost - we only have so much time in the day - we have to focus in on the biggest things

  • Strategically quitting is not the opposite of grit, but enables you to focus in on the most important things

  • People consistently over-commit their time and don’t understand how little time they have

  • We consistently make the error that in the future we think we will have more time

  • Find a balance - look at what’s producing results - show grit with those things - things that aren’t producing results

  • Why you should absolutely dedicate 5-10% of your time to what Peter Simms calls “little bets”

  • The key litmus test on whether or not you should apply GRIT or QUIT

  • What research reveals (Richard Wiseman in the UK) on how you can improve your luck!

  • How do we “walk the tightrope” between confidence and delusion? How often should we “believe in ourselves”?

  • Confidence as a whole is a problematic paradigm, confidence follows success, it doesn’t lead to success - it has NO effect on outcomes, only impact on trying to build confidence is that it increases narcissism

  • Confidence is often either delusional (detached from reality) or contingent (which can crash your self esteem)

  • Self compassion provides all the benefits of self confidence with none of the drawbacks

  • How to change the way you talk to yourself and cultivate self compassion

  • The simplest and easiest cure for the “plague” of procrastination you can use right now!

  • The more you work, if you’re actually doing deliberate practice, the better you do

  • What’s more important HUSTLE or work life balance?

  • There is an, essentially linear, relationship between time and skill development

  • 10,000 hours alone is proof of nothing - its all about deliberate practice - our current understanding of skill development is grossly oversimplified

  • Difference between obsession and passion?

  • In living a truly successful life - relationships, alignment, and fulfillment are essential

  • And much more!

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This weeks episode of The Science of Success is brought to you by our partners at Brilliant! Brilliant is math and science enrichment learning. Learn concepts by solving fascinating, challenging problems. Brilliant explores probability, computer science, machine learning, physics of the everyday, complex algebra, and much more. Dive into an addictive interactive experience enjoyed by over 4 million students, professionals, and enthusiasts around the world.

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20% OFF THEIR FULL SUITE of classes and course simply go to brilliant.org/scienceofsuccess in order to claim your discount and start learning these incredibly important skills today!

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SUCCESS Live: Learn. Develop Achieve.  SUCCESS believes success is possible for every person who seeks it.  Find it at SUCCESS Live, a two-day event, open to the public, taking place in Long Beach, California on September 8th & 9th 2017. SUCCESS Live features some amazing guest speakers including Keith Ferrazzi, Peter Diamandis, Jocko Willink, and More

Ticket packages are still available to the public at
https://www.successliveevent.com/! Don't miss the chance to learn the inner workings of your mind, reignite your passions, and become a better leader by becoming a better YOU! JOIN US, members of The Science of Success team at SUCCESS LIve by going to https://www.successliveevent.com/ today!

SHOW NOTES, LINKS, & RESEARCH

  • [Personal Site] Barking Up the Wrong Tree

  • [Book] The Effective Executive: The Definitive Guide to Getting the Right Things Done by Peter F. Drucker

  • [Book] Barking Up the Wrong Tree by Eric Barker

  • [Audiobook] The Luck Factor: The Scientific Study of the Lucky Mind by Richard Wiseman

  • [HBS Faculty Profile] Boris Groysberg

  • [Stanford Faculty Profile] Jeffrey Pfeffer

  • [Website] Authentic Happiness

  • [SoS Episode] Why You Shouldn’t Follow Your Passion & The Rare Value of Deep Work with Cal Newport

  • [HBR Article] Managing Oneself by Peter F. Drucker

  • [HBR Article] How Leaders Become Self-Aware by Anthony K. Tjan

  • [Stanford Faculty Profile] Robert I.Sutton

  • [Wiki Article] Gabriele Oettingen

  • [Article] The Luck Factor by Richard Wiseman

  • [Website] Self-Compassion with Dr. Kristin Neff

  • [Personal Site] Sam Harris

  • [Article] The 75-Year Study That Found The Secrets To A Fulfilling Life By Carolyn Gregoire

  • [Article] Good genes are nice, but joy is better By Liz Mineo

  • [Stanford Course] Life Course Studies Program

Episode Transcript


[00:00:06.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success with your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:12.6] MB: Welcome to The Science of Success. I’m your host, Matt Bodnar. I’m an entrepreneur and investor in Nashville, Tennessee and I’m obsessed with the mindset of success and the psychology of performance. I’ve read hundreds of books, conducted countless hours of research and study and I am going to take you on a journey into the human mind and what makes peak performers tick with a focus on always having our discussion rooted in psychological research and scientific fact, not opinion. 

In this episode we ask what really produces success by looking at what separates truly successful people from the rest. We examined many common and conflicting success maxims and look at what the data actually says about what really works. We dig deep into the vital importance of knowing yourself and your own strengths. We look at the power of aligning your work with your environment and discuss the dangers of constantly overcommitting your time, with Eric Barker. 

The Science of Success continues to grow with now more than a million downloads, listeners in over a hundred countries, hitting number one New and Noteworthy and more. I get listener comments and emails all the time asking me, “Matt, how do you organize and remember all these incredible information?” 

A lot of her listeners are curious about how I keep track of all the incredible knowledge I get from reading hundreds of books, interviewing amazing experts, listening to awesome podcasts, and more. Because of that, we’ve created an epic resource just for you, a detailed guide called How to Organize and Remember Everything, and you can get it completely for free by texting the word “smarter” to the number 44222. Again, it's a guide we created called How to Organize and Remember Everything. All you have to do to get it is to text the word “smarter” to the number 44222 or go to successpodcast.com and join our email list, that’s successpodcast.com and join our email list. 

In a previous episode we discussed why people struggle to reach outside of their comfort zones and why it’s so critically important that you do. We explored the five core psychological roadblocks stopping people from stepping outside of their comfort zones. We went deep on how you can become tougher, more resilient and embrace discomfort and how you can master the art of small talk, what you need to cultivate the skill of global dexterity and much more, with Dr. Andy Molisnky. If you want to finally make progress on something that's been holding you back, listen to that episode. 

Also, don't forget. If you want to get all the incredible information we talked about in this show, links, transcripts and much more, and believe me, there's a ton of short notes for this episode. Be sure to check out or show notes that success podcast.com. Just hit the show notes button at the top. 

Lastly, you know how much I talk about the concept of mental models and how vital it is to build a toolkit of mental models in order to be successful and achieve your goals. That's why this week I am super excited to tell you that one of our sponsors, brilliant.org. Brilliant is a math and science enrichment learning tool that makes mastering the fundamentals of math and science easy and fun. They’re offering a special promotion for Science of Success listeners, and can get it at brilliant.org/scienceofsuccess. Mastering the fundamentals of math and science is such an important component of building to toolkit of mental models, and Brilliant is a great way to get started on the path. 

[0:03:16.6] MB: Another sponsor for this episode is the Success Live Summit, which as we hinted at, is not actually the Science of Success, but Success Magazine puts on an awesome live summit and they’ve been kind enough to sponsor this episode as well as hook us up with some sweet guest speakers, which will be coming on the show in the next couple of weeks. But this event is actually pretty awesome and I'm kind of bummed out that I'm not going to get to go to it. I have an immovable schedule conflict, but my producer, Austin, who’s here in the studio with me will be able to attend it and he’s going to be there. 

[0:03:45.7] A: Yeah, we’re super excited. If anybody who’s listening to this right now wants to meet up, shoot me an email, austin@successpodcast.com. We’d love to chat, shake hands, take pictures. It’d be awesome. I think it’s really important for people that are striving to become more successful, to become more fulfilled, looking into the science of success to be around other people with those same goals. 

This time around the event, it’s two days. It’s in September 8th and 9th in Long Beach, California. There’s ticket packages available and they’ve got some amazing speakers, Matt. 

[0:04:10.7] MB: They really do. There’s people like some of my favorite authors, Keith Ferrazzi, Never Eat Alone, which is literally sitting on my desk right here. I constantly keep it in front of me because it’s probably the greatest book ever written about networking. They’ve got Peter Diamandis, incredible thinker and leader. People like Brendon Buchard, Mel Robbins. Really phenomenal lineup. 

[0:04:28.7] A: Yeah, it’s going to be greatest, and they’re speaking on a ton of things, from success, how to become a better leader, find balance in your life. If you’re a CEO of a company, you really got to find time to recharge, time to hit the gas. Just finding balance and mental strategies to making yourself bigger and better and your business bigger and better. Really hitting on all cylinders here. It’s going to be a great, great event. 

[0:04:47.7] MB: You can learn more and get tickets at successliveevent.com. That’s successliveevent.com. Definitely check it out. If you're in Long Beach, I would highly recommend checking it out, if you're looking for a really cool event, September 8th and 9th, Long Beach, California, successliveevent.com, you can find all the information you need. 

[0:05:06.6] A: Success Live: Learn, Develop, Achieve. Go to successliveevent.com today to get your ticket.

[0:05:11.9] MB: Now, for the episode. Today, we have another amazing guest on the show, Eric Barker. Eric is the creator of the blog Barking Up The Wrong Tree with over 290,000 subscribers. His work is syndicated by Time Magazine, Business Insider and he's been featured in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and much more. Recently, his new book, Barking Up The Wrong Tree: The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success is Mostly Wrong was named a Wall Street Journal bestseller. 

Eric, welcome to the Science of Success. 

[0:05:42.2] EB: Thanks so much. It’s great to be here.

[0:05:44.0] MB: We’re super excited to have you on. As I was telling you kind of before we got started, I’ve been a long time reader of your blog and a big fan. I got to ask you at the beginning, how do you pronounce the name of it and what's the story behind the actual kind of — I'm going to botch it terribly, like bakadesuyo or badakaseyo. I don’t know how to say it. Tell me the story behind what that is and why you initially named the blog that. 

[0:06:06.7] EB: I started the blog on a lark. I didn’t even really know what I was doing with it at first. Basically, I took Japanese as my language in undergrad and I found out the first day of class that my last name means moron in Japanese, so I’ve been to Tokyo three times. I’ve never had a Japanese person forget my name. 

Basically, in the Japanese language you usually use last names, what [inaudible 0:06:33.0] means I am Barker. What [inaudible 0:06:36.4] that’s also means I’m an idiot. They’re the same exact sentence. Basically, from a URL, that is either me emphatically saying my name or me emphatically saying I’m a moron. However anybody chooses to interpret it. Perhaps not the best marketing choice on my part for a URL, but definitely has a fun back story. 

[0:06:56.6] MB: That’s awesome. I didn’t know that story, so that’s really funny. Tell me a little bit about how did you initially kind of get involved in this path and what drew you to really wanting to understand the science behind what makes people successful. Obviously, that’s the name of this podcast, and so I think there’s a ton of synergies between what you write about and what we love to dig into on the show. 

[0:07:18.7] EB: Yeah. I’ve been doing a blog now for about eight years and basically I started just coming through the RSS feeds of academic journals and kind of broadened it out. I was just looking for, initially, interesting stuff, and then eventually stuff that we could use to kind of improve our lives, because there’s a great William Gibson quote I love where he said that, “The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.” I think that’s true. A lot of questions we ask ourselves about success, about life, we think they’re mysteries. The truth is a lot of these things have been solved by scientific studies, most of those are not terribly fun or pleasant to read. 

I started doing that for a number of years and then I was lucky, blog kind of took off and people encourage me to write a book. I’ve had a very unconventional career of myself. I was a screenwriter at Hollywood. I worked in the video game industry, then I was a blogger, and I just saw that a lot of the ideas we have about success, these pithy little maxims we hear, like nice guys finish last, and it’s not what you know, it’s who you know. I saw that in a lot of situations these just didn’t apply to my career. I didn’t think they necessarily applied to other people or at least they were incomplete. 

Given that my blog was focused on personal development and success in many areas of life, everything from happiness, to productivity, to relationships and negotiation, I kind of wanted to tackle those head on and give them the Mythbusters treat and basically kind of look and see were they true, were they not true, and trying to get both sides of the story almost like a court case and hopefully make it fun and tell some engaging stories that people can relate to while trying to break down these myths. That was kind of the path I was on. 

[0:08:56.3] MB: I think that’s a great approach, and I love the structure of the book, which is as you said, to kind of take all of these maxims that we hear and people kind of casually toss out and say, “Hold on a second, is that even true?” In many cases, these maxims are directly contradictory. What does the data actually say? What is the research say about these strategies? That’s a genius approach to kind of cracking that walnut. 

[0:09:20.9] EB: It was really interesting for me, because in some — Maybe in a prior era, these things were more true, but now life is so complicated. We have so many options, so many possibilities that it’s hard to believe one pithy sentence, like nice guys finish last, is really going to sum up — is going to just include the sum total of anything. There’s definitely some insight in a lot of these, but I wanted to really look at what the experts and the academics had to say. It was educational for me as well and my intention here was to write the book I wish I had 15 years ago and to kind of have fun with it, because with everything I write on the blog, my attitude with everything is just try and — It’s like it better inform me or it better entertain me and preferably it’d better be both. 

[0:10:10.4] MB: You opened the book with a question of what separates the truly successful from everybody else. What did you see when you actually looked at the research and the data and figured out what are those key things. What are the differentiators that separate someone who’s really successful from someone who doesn’t achieve that?  

[0:10:30.4] EB: What I found was really interesting. Some insights that came from — The 10,000 foot overview were some insights that came from Gautam Mukunda and Boris Groysberg, two professors at Harvard Business School. The kind of the basic formula being, first, to know thyself. It’s really understanding your signature strengths, and that’s a funky academic term for knowing what your unique skills are, what you can really bring to the table that makes you standout. Knowing your interest, knowing your passions, knowing your signature strengths. Then aligning that with an environment that rewards those, those incentivizes those, because you can be really good at something, but if you’re not at a place that respects and values that, you’re probably not going to be very successful. 

On the flipside, you might work for a great company or a fantastic organization, but if you don’t really bring something to the table that’s unique and stands out, again, you’re probably not going to do so well there either. Once we look at those signature strengths and we find a place that rewards them, believes in those, you can really use something. 

What’s interesting there, and I discussed this in both the introduction and the first chapter, is what Harvard professor Gautam Mukunda calls intensifiers, and those are basically qualities that in general are negatives, but in the right environment can actually be positives. They can actually be the incredible competitive advantages. The example I used in the book is I want to talk about the story of Jure Robič who was the dominant participant in the Race Across America, which is this bicycle race that literally goes from Atlantic City to San Diego. They crossed the entire United States. Unlike the Tour de France, which has breaks, the Race Across America does not stop. The minute the clock starts, it does not stop, meaning if you stop to go to the bathroom, if you stop to sleep, if you stop — Anything, your competitors can pass you. People usually complete the race in 9 to 12 days. Two people have died trying to do this. It is just a relentless monster of an event. Outsize Magazine just declared it the most grueling ultra-endurance event there is. 

Jure Robič was the most dominant athlete in this sport, and the reason that he was so dominant is he would literally lose his mind. He would actually go crazy. He would hallucinate. He would become paranoid. He just start crying. He would hop off his bike and get in fist fights with mailboxes. He would lose his mind, but that disassociation allowed him to cope with just the unimaginable pain and discomfort of riding a bike for 9 days straight and he was so dominant he would actually — The difference between him and first place and the guy in second place was 11 hours. Literally, he would pass the finish line and you’d have to wait half a day to see number two cross the finish line. 

I think when I was a kid, my high school guidance counselor didn’t tell me that losing my mind and getting in fist fights with mailboxes was a path to success if anything. That’s where we get into the complexities of it where it’s just not so simple as played by the rules, get good grades, eat your Wheaties and everything is going to work out for you. We need to look at those times where when our negative is positive, and that’s why, like I said, when I talk about knowing yourself and finding the right environment, that doesn’t necessarily mean the typically prescribed things, like good grades and be sweet and nice. It’s that alignment between who you are and where you are that really produces success, and it doesn’t necessarily have to be those things that we were all told in elementary school. Sometimes the most biggest of negatives, like losing your mind, can actually be a positive, and that’s where I think we need to broaden how we think about what results in success, because when we talk about qualities like stubbornness, and stubbornness is a negative. 

If you’re an entrepreneur trying to do something really difficult, stubbornness is called grit and all of a sudden we think it’s fantastic. Grit and stubbornness can be the same exact thing, but that quality in you when you align it with the right environment, it’s a fantastic positive. For entrepreneurs, it’s probably essential. When you put it in a wrong environment, like a typical corporation where a group think is really a big thing, being stubborn and difficult can be problematic. It’s more about alignment in the big picture than it is about the positives or negatives of any particular quality in the abstract.  

[0:15:03.9] MB: I love that nuance and that story really highlights the example that context is vitally important. Another story that you’ve talked about is the story of Pixar, which I thought was really powerful. 

[0:15:16.3] EB: Yeah, basically it was right after Finding Nemo and Steve Jobs was concerned that they were going to lose their edge. That they had broken new ground. They had stepped aside from the typical animation, animation way of doing things, like Disney and the others, and they’ve been phenomenal, and they brought in Brad Bird to direct the next movie and he wanted to do things differently and try and make sure that they stayed innovative and they stayed edgy, and he didn’t do that by bringing in new people. He didn’t do that by only taking the top tier talent. He did that by telling the heads of Pixar, Steve Jobs and Ed Catmull. He said, “Give me all the black sheep.” He said, “Give me all the people who want to do things differently. Give me all the people who are probably headed out the door or going to get fired.” 

With those guys, Brad Bird, they managed to do things the studio had never done before they managed to accomplish things more cheaply. They did it quicker. In the end, they ended up making the film The Incredibles which not only grossed, I think, over $600 million, but also won The Oscar for best animated feature. Again, they did this by embracing the different attitudes that some of these people had rather than looking at them through the typical corporate lens of, “Oh, those guys are difficult.” No. Those guys might have a very different but good way of looking at things. Now, that doesn’t mean that different is always good. Different can definitely be bad, but we need to be very careful about just labeling anything that is outside the norm or doesn’t align with the current values of upper management as bad, because I think that’s something we’re seeing now more than ever is just corporations love to talk about, “Oh, we want to innovate.” “Oh, we went outside the box.” Yeah, but we also don’t want to change. That doesn’t really work. Being able to look at what the qualities are, sometimes qualities that on the surface seem like negatives in the right environment can be positives.  

[0:17:16.9] MB: I think the point about context too really reveals why many of these traditional success maxims are so limited, because as you pointed out, in a specific context that skillset or that ability might be really powerful, but in many other contexts it could dangerous, it could be disastrous or it could be problematic. It could be inhibiting you from achieving what you’re trying to achieve. 

[0:17:41.3] EB: No, absolutely. I think that’s a lot of — One thing I was very cognizant of when I was writing a book was I just didn’t want it to be this — We’ve seen a lot of business books that just hold up one concept and they say, “This is the and all be all answer. This quality is always good in every situation everywhere for the rest of time. It has no downsides. No negatives. No side effects, so all we need to do is have this one thing and everything is going to be great and live happily ever after.” Life doesn’t work like that. Plain and simple, life doesn’t work like that. 

For instance, when talking about the research in terms of nice guys finish last. A huge distinction is short term versus long term. In the short term, being a jerk can really payoff, and anybody who has seen a jerk get promoted or a jerk become CEO knows this at least in their heart of hearts. In the short term, you see this and so many experiments that have been done in terms of theoretical constructs, like the prisoner’s dilemma, a lot of Robert Axelrod’s research, you see that in the short term being bad can be very, very good. You see things like Jeffrey Pfeffer’s research at Stanford Graduate School of Business where kissing your boss’s ass, the research shows is far more effective than actual hard work. Again, that’s in the short term. Over the long term, we gain a reputation. Over the long term, that reputation is going to affect you. It depends on that context, again, where used car salesman doesn’t expect to see you again, and that’s why they have the reputation they do and why they use the methods they do. Your mom hopefully is going to be with you the rest of your life, and that’s why moms have the reputation they do. They’re really looking out for you. 

It’s critical to understand, when we try to make everything one-size-fits-all, one simple answer, that’s usually not the case, but to understand, “Well, gees! I’ve seen good guys get ahead and I’ve seen bad guys get ahead. Is it just random?” No. It’s not random. In that particular case, it’s usually often an issue of short term versus long term. 

I think to understand nuance, to understand the importance of context really allows us to really start to get our brain around how success really works in the real world. 

[0:20:02.0] MB: I think the other characteristic that you identified about what makes the successful standout and the vital importance of knowing yourself, that’s something we delve into a lot on the show and one of the most recurrent themes received from across the board, even looking at people like Buddhist teachers, meditation teachers, etc., it's so critical to understand yourself. 

[0:20:25.7] EB: Yeah. I think that it's something we pay a lot of lip service to, but I don’t think it’s something that a lot of people really to sit down and think about. Hey, our brands are filled with cognitive biases and many of us can be overconfident or not so self-aware, but to sit down and actually think about that, you look at the research in terms of self-awareness has some really powerful advantages to it. There are ways to go about it. Management guru, Peter Drucker, talked about feedback analysis where taking the time to make predictions and then see how they work out in terms of, “Am I going to do this well? Am I going to do that well?” 

Overtime you’ll see patterns, you’ll see trends, or if you’re a little bit more brave and are a little bit more thick skin to do an informal survey of your friends, of those closest to you, to get an idea. Of course, with friends who you believe will be honest with you, to get an idea of what they see your strengths and weaknesses are, because if you ask, say, 10 friends, yeah, there’s going to be some randomness, some noise in there. My guess is in terms of strengths and weaknesses, you’re going to hear a handful of things over and over again. Those are the things that you should really kind of hone in on because it not only does it make us obviously more successful to do things we’re good at. That’s pretty intuitive. 

On the flipside, when you look at the research at University of Pennsylvania on signature strengths and surveys done by Gallup, both of them show that the more time you spend on things that you are good at, the happier people are, the more respected feel. There’s just overall in terms of subjective well-being increases dramatically. Past that, if you look at some of the work by Cal Newport at Georgetown, you see that our passions — Many people have the typical passions. They want to be a professional athlete. They want to be a singing success. There’s not a lot of spots for those things. Pursuing your passions doesn’t always lead to happiness. 

However, there’s a good body of research that shows that when you pursue the things you’re good at, that you become happy, that passions don’t necessarily lead to success, but when you do things that you are successful, you become passionate about that. You become happy that you’re doing and you enjoy them more. 
Those are definitely some tips we can use there in terms of the power of self-awareness. 

[0:23:00.4] MT: How do you think about balancing the kind of advice to focus primarily on improving your strengths versus improving your weaknesses and repairing your weaknesses. 

[0:23:11.7] EB: The research is pretty consistent on that one. Again, Peter Drucker wrote a fantastic piece to the Harvard Business Review a number of years ago that you’re going to do much better by trying to improve on your strengths and trying to bring up your weaknesses. Your first goal, it’s going to be easier. You’re probably more passionate about it and you’re going to spend time on it. It’s going to be much — You’re going to see bigger gains, larger marginal returns. Beyond that, also bringing up your weaknesses is going to be very difficult. 

If you look at Drucker’s book, the Effective Executive, which is a fantastic book in general, he says that it’s much better to focus on the things you’re good at and then find a way to compensate for the things you’re bad at. In other words, if you are extremely creative and dynamic and innovative and you’re always coming up with really powerful new ideas, but you are a complete disorganized mess, it’s far better for you to double down on being creative and coming up with interesting ideas and to hire an assistance to keep you organized than it is for you to sit down and study a bunch of productivity books and trying to do something that is just completely kind of going against the grain. 

To point to specific examples, Bob Sutton, a professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, when I interviewed him he talked about the fact that this is exactly what many successful chief executive officers have done including Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerberg is they didn’t say, “Oh, I’m going to bring up my weaknesses and try and be this incredibly well-rounded renaissance man.” 

What they did was they said, “I’m going to focus on what I’m good at, and when I round out the rest of my senior management team, I’m going to make sure that they fill in those gaps that I’m not so good at so that those things are being addressed, but I’m not the one who has to address them.” 

[0:24:56.9] MB: I think the great word there is compensate, right? People might get confused when they think about focusing on the strengths versus focusing on weaknesses. If you find a way to compensate for your weaknesses, then that enables you to focus deeply on your strengths. 

[0:25:11.1] EB: Absolutely. Any system or tool that you can leverage to do that is fine. Where if you see people who, because of their time at an organization or with a particular boss or mentor or maybe their time in the military, they develop certain good habits and they might not be the most organized person, but because they were at an institution or in the military that thought them a number of habits, then they can pick those thing sup. Training yourself in terms of habits can be a personal way to compensate for your weaknesses. They use certain technology, tools, or aps that help you compensate. 

Again, if you’re an entrepreneur or if you’re an organization where you have direct reports, you can be cognizant of this and hire to attempt to deliberately compensate for your weaknesses, because you’re going to see in general much greater returns from focusing on your assurance. 

[0:26:09.4] MB: That’s circles back to the importance of knowing yourself. Again, if you really have a clear understanding of where you’re strong and where you’re weak, it’s that much easier to say, “Hey, I suck at being organized, or I suck at this particular piece of the business. This is what I need to find somebody. Their skillset is exactly this.” 

[0:26:28.1] EB: Yeah. It’s funny you say that, because that’s exactly what Drucker says in Effective Executive where he says, “WE all know those people who they just — They’re few and far between, but we all know someone who is able to take on a project and pretty much they may not know what they’re doing, but they know how to approach it. They go ahead and it seems they’re always a phenomenal success and we’re envious of these people. 

Drucker says one of the reasons that people can do that is because once you are really aware of your strengths and weaknesses, you’re very quickly able to diagnose a situation and say, “Oh! This naturally aligns with my strengths, so I’m just going to sit down and do what I usually do,” or “This is not so aligned with my strengths, but knowing that my strengths are, then I can find the right kind of solution to this. I can get help from the right people because maybe I’m a better communicator than I am researcher. Okay, well then. I’m going to get on the phone and I’m going to talk to some experts who really — Or maybe I’m a bookwork, but I’m not a great communicator. Okay, well then. I’m going to real all the great books on this and I’m going to focus on putting something like this down on paper as supposed to merely talking to people.” 

Just understanding your strengths allow you to plan the right way, to go about achieving a goal, because there’s many different strategies you can take. Once you kind of know the meta goal, what’s the overall big plan, there’s often many different ways to get there. When you know your strength, you’re able to better plan. When you don’t know your strengths, you’re kind of rolling a dice. If you’re diluting yourself, then you actually might be in a worst situation of all, which is maybe you actually working against your best interests. 

[0:28:13.4] MB: I’m super excited today to tell you about our sponsor for this episode, brilliant.org. Brilliant.org is absolutely awesome website that’s focused on math and science learning and making it super easy and approachable. You know how big of a fan I am of mental models and building a toolkit of mental models. In many ways, one of the core word things driving this show is helping you build a toolkit of mental model so that you can better understand the world so that you can master the art of decision-making. That's why brilliant.org is so awesome, because you can integrate a lot of these mental models around probability, math and science into your day by using something like brilliant.org. I've got my producer, Austin, here to join us and talk a little bit about brilliant. 

[0:28:58.4] A: Yeah. I’ve been taking some of the courses and I’ve been diving in. It’s absolutely great. You say math and sciences and a lot of people, you have an idea on your head about this course and you’re going to be like, “They’re fun. They’re interactive and they keep you going. They have streaks.” Probability is one of the course that really caught my mind. They sort of approached it from what’s one of the foundations of probability, which is games of chance. Things like poker, rolling the dice, casino blackjack, things like that. 

The way they framed all of these math and science, framed it in a way that you can kind of understand it and apply it in real life. It’s not just memorizing equations and numbers, but still very impactful. 

[0:29:32.2] MB: I'm a big poker player, which you’ve heard me talk about sometimes on the show. I’ve been on a few poker podcast and that kind of thing. Austin sometimes comes to my poker game that I host, and I can tell you he definitely needs to brush up on some of these probability courses. 

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[0:29:52.0] MB: We do. I don’t know if you’re coming to the game or not. 

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[0:29:55.7] MB: Yeah, it’s amazing. Again, I think it's so important and so few people really understand math and science, and America is falling behind in those categories. I don't want you to be left behind, and that's why I think something like brilliant.org is such a great sponsor for this show. We’re super excited to have them, and it's an incredible place where you can go and brush up and build these science and math skills. 

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[0:31:06.5] MB: Alright, back to the episode. 

Let’s segue into some of the other lessons from the book. One of the ones that we hear about all the time is the idea of persevering, should we stay with it? Do quitters never win, or is grit the important factor, or should we cut our loses, move on quickly and find things that are successful? 

[0:31:30.4] EB: Yeah, I think it’s really interesting, because grit is kind of having a moment now. It’s kind of its time in the sun, and there’s a good reason for that. Obviously, a lot of people do have trouble persisting with their goals over the long term, so that is critical. I think we do a disservice by acting like grit is the answer to everything, because if that was the case then I would still be in tee-ball and playing with action figures, because that’s what I was doing when I was seven and I decided to stick with that. 

No. We all change. We all grow. We all evolve, and increasingly the modern work world, people are having multiple roles in completely different careers, in completely different industries, so adaption is critical. 

Grit is really powerful, and we can see the research from Martin Seligman and others that shows that optimism promotes grit. That taking things and perceiving them, using a frame, a game-type frame where it’s a game of sorts can help promote grit. On the flipside, we need to look at the advantages of quitting. We need to see. If you look at the economic principle of opportunity cost, we all only have 24 hours in a day and if you just keep being gritty with things and you keep adding new skills, well eventually you’re just not going to have time for them all. 

The truth is that strategically quitting is not the opposite of grit. It is complementary to grit, because the more things you quit, the more time, energy, money resources that you have to devote to the things that you want to be gritty with, that you want to focus on, because there’s research, one of the studies in the book where when you ask people, people are consistently conservative with estimating money. People don’t think that they’re going to be a millionaire tomorrow. They’ll be conservative in terms of committing themselves to spending lots of money. 

However — And this is the opposite of the time equals money perspective. However, we don’t look at time like that. People will consistently overcommit in terms of how much time they have. If something seems further away, if I ask you to do something three months from now, well you just seemed sure and positive that in three months you’re going to have more time where it’s probably much more realistic, unless it’s an exception. It’s probably more realistic for you to look at your last week. Think about how busy you were, and it’s probably how busy you’re going to be three months from now. Yet, we consistently make the error that in the future we’ll have more time. In the future, sadly, the days are still going to have 24 hours. In a week, there’s still going to have 7 days. We really need to be cognizant of those timing issues and use that to our advantage when we’re planning, we’re trying to figure out how to be successful. 

[0:34:12.6] MB: So true. Literally, just thinking about it now, I feel like I will have more time in three months, and it’s very hard to kind of dislodge that bias from my mind, but logically I know that that’s probably very unlikely. 

[0:34:27.5] EB: No. It’s critical to think about that, because time used is really big in terms of grit. You’re not going to have more than 24 hours in a day. Being able to quit, being able to think. So what it comes down to really, what I recommend in the book, is finding a balance where it’s looking at what’s producing results. What’s not producing results? The things that producing results are getting you where you want to go, that’s where you want to show grit. The things that aren’t producing results, and sometimes those are hard to face. You want to try and like go up, but you always want to be devoting five to 10% of your time to what Peters Sims calls little bets, and that is little low-cost investments to kind of see what can work out. See what might be able to come of that and be trying new things, because the world is changing fast, so we need to be changing with it, and to find that new opportunity, that new hobby, relationship, whatever, we always need to be trying new things. 

Another thing that people can use that’s really powerful, a research by Gabriele Oettingen at NYU, she talks about a great little acronym called WOOP, and what that is is wish, outcome, obstacle, plan, and that is whenever we’re dreaming about something we want, some goal we have in the future, to walk through those four steps. To first, think about what you’re wishing for. The second is to think of the concrete outcome, what you would actually like to happen specifically. The third, and this is critical, is to think about the obstacles. What’s in the way, so that you’re not merely wishing and dreaming. You’re not daydreaming. You’re thinking about the obstacles. What’s in the way? Fourth is to make a plan based on that. That really helps people be much more realistic about their goals and create a plan to get to them. 

What is fantastic, really interesting, is that a secondary effect that she found with this research was that it actually became a litmus test for whether to apply grit or quit. When people went through the WOOP plan, when people went through wish, outcome, obstacle, plan, if they felt more energized afterwards, if they’re walking through it, if they felt like, “Wow! This is great. I can certainly do this.” Then that was probably something that they should apply grit too over the long term. 

However, if people went through it and they felt a little down. They felt de-energized, then the plan probably wasn’t realistic and it’s probably either a goal that they needed to discard or a goal that they needed to kind of reframe, that they needed to think about what the meta goal was and find a different way to go about achieving it. 

[0:36:53.2] MB: I love the idea of little bets. You know, it’s funny. I was thinking about I know this podcast basically came out of a little bit. I had a buddy suggest to really put a few episodes out on the internet and kind of slowly took hold. As you said at the start of the interview, your blog started out the same way. These are two very concrete examples of how you should always be out there trying new little things and dedicating a little bit of time to sort of low-risk opportunities and activities that may take off and they may not. That’s why I always kind of had an issue with the idea that you should never quit, because I think you should be testing lots of little things and seeing what’s getting some traction and what’s not and then double down your bets and the things that are actually working. 

[0:37:39.9] EB: That’s critical. When people talk about luck, what’s interesting is there’s research on luck. Now, I don’t mean luck in terms of magic, but luck in terms of seemingly random good things, positive things happening to you. Richard Wiseman, a professor in the UK did some research and he found a few things that you can actually do to improve luck. 

One of them was the idea of being open to new experiences, trying new things, because it’s intuitive. We don’t usually think about it, but it’s only rational intuitive. If you lock the door to your house, don’t answer the phone, don’t go on the internet, how many random good things are going to happen to you? Not too many. Versus if you’re out there exposing yourself to possibilities, yeah, negatives can happen, but playing positives can happen as well. That’s the kind of thing we need to be thinking about is trying new things, exposing ourselves to new experiences, because you can’t guarantee that great things are going to happen to you, but there are certainly things you can do to increase or decrease a possibility of those little serendipitous moments occurring. 

One of the best ones is little bets, little low-cost, low resource, low time investment, things that could produce great results. I dare to say that in the modern era, that is sort of essential, because the world is changing. We’re going to have to change, and that’s something that we need to keep doing a certain percentage of our time just to make sure that we’re keeping up with the natural changes in the world. 

[0:39:12.2] MB: Tell me about what are the other topics that you wrote about that I thought was really interesting was how do we, as you put it, walk the tight rope between confidence and delusion, and how often should we really focus on believing in ourselves? 

[0:39:26.9] EB: It’s really interesting, because confidence is — There’s no doubt that confidence, first of all, makes us feel good. Second of all, confidence has an enormous impact on how others perceive us. Confidence was a really interesting thing to explore, because I’ve never heard anybody say, “I’m trying to decrease my confidence.” 

We don’t see a lot of books about how to reduce your self-esteem in five easy steps. That’s probably because the book wouldn’t sell, but you just don’t hear anybody talking about the downsides of confidence. Part of that is because we have a separate word we use. We’ll talk about narcissism, or hubris, or we’ll call it over confident, but nobody kind of gives less confidence what its due and we — Again, because we have another word for it often, which we often label like humility, which is a positive quality because when we are less confident, we’re open to learning. We’re more open to new ideas. We don’t alienate other people by being know-it-alls.  

When you look at it, what you’ll often find is that confidence as a whole is a problematic paradigm, because when you look at the research, confidence usually follows success. It doesn’t lead to success. When California launched a state initiative to try and increase the self-esteem of students because they thought it would increase grades, decrease drug use, all these other things, what they found is that it had almost no effect at all. In fact the only effect it probably had was increasing narcissism, because confidence usually follows success. It doesn’t always lead to it. 

What we can find is that often that’s because confidence is very often either delusional or contingent. Delusional in the sense that people are overconfident and that usually leads to failure eventually, because eventually reality gives us a kind of market correction in the form of a metaphorical punch in the nose, or confidence is often contingent. Self-esteem is contingent, where basically you have this vision of yourself and in order to realistically maintain it, you feel you need to wake up and slay a dragon everyday so that you can continue to feel good about yourself, and this just keeps you on a treadmill of you keep having to achieving just in order to feel good about yourself. That’s exhausting, but not only is that exhausting, you’re going to have an off day. One day you’re not going to slay that dragon and your self-esteem crashes, and that’s how we end up on this rollercoaster of emotions having to work so hard to feel good about ourselves and then not feeling good about ourselves, and it’s a double down. 

What we see is when you look — Going back well over a thousand years, is the Buddhist concept of self-compassion, which Kristin Neff at the University of Texas at Austin has done a bunch of academic research showing that this isn’t just a philosophical concept. It’s actually a really good kind of alternative to self-confidence is self-compassion. Basically what that is, is rather than with self-confidence or self-esteem, trying to build yourself up to be something greater than you’re not. Self-compassion is seeing the world more realistically and being far more open to forgiving yourself when you’re not Superman, when you don’t achieve. Taking a realistic perspective and then understanding, sometimes you’re going to fail. That’s human, and forgiving yourself and moving on. That keeps us out of that contingent treadmill cycle and keeps us out of delusion. What her research has shown is that self-compassion provides all the benefits of self-confidence without any of the negatives and it’s a very powerful tool that we can all use to get us out of the self-confidence track.  

[0:43:02.2] MB: That’s amazing, and self-compassion is something that we talk a ton about on the show. Again and again it comes up as such a vital skill to cultivate. How do you — From what you saw, what are some of the best ways to cultivate self-compassion? 

[0:43:18.6] EB: The first real step is we all have that voice in our head that’s so critical and we’re quick to beat ourselves up when we make mistakes and it’s really changing that voice. Changing the way you talk to yourself, where instead of being so negative and critical, is to just have more of a grandmotherly sort of forgiving attitude where instead of, “Oh! I get this thing in late, and I’ll — I’m so stupid. How do I do this every time?” As supposed to, “You know what? I made a mistake. It happens. I’ll do my best to correct it, but this happens and it’s okay. It’s not the end of the world,” to take that perspective. 

What’s interesting is you look at the research in terms of something we all suffer from, kind of a plague, is procrastination. We’re also inclined to beat ourselves up for procrastination, but what the studies show is that forgiving yourself for procrastination is actually a much better — It leads to people getting things done and on doing stuff. We feel like we need to punish ourselves, but that kind of keeps us in that loop here we’re punishing ourselves and we see ourselves as procrastinators and we’re still tied up as supposed to letting it go, letting the fear go, letting the concern go and just getting something done. So much of procrastination comes from fear, from this kind of negative anticipation and just taking that voice in your head. When you hear that critical voice, just trying to soften it. Just trying to say, it’s like, “Yes. Hey, I make mistakes. That’s human. That’s natural,” and forgiving yourself again, as supposed to when we take that self-confidence vision of, “I’ve got to be Superman. I’m this awesome super thing.” That can only lead to two places; having that insane, over the top, I’m 150% attitude, that can only lead to you being utterly diluted and completely cutoff from reality, because it’s not who you are. It’s impossible, or to you just crushing your self-esteem because seeing unrealistic standards, and then when you see the results are not 150%, then you feel terrible about yourself. I don’t think anyone of us wants to, A; feel terrible about ourselves, or B; be utterly diluted and cutoff from reality. It’s much better to develop that sort of softer, quitter, forgiving voice in our head and to just catch ourselves whenever we’re too critical, whenever we’re beating ourselves up. That’s a really good first step to self-compassion. 

[0:45:48.0] MB: That makes me think about something that I think about a ton, which is the balance between almost this Buddhist sense of non-attachment with ambition and achievement. How do you strike a balance between those two things? I know you don’t necessarily directly address that in the book, but I’m curious what your thoughts are about how those two things kind of balance each other and how self-compassion plays into that.  

[0:46:12.0] EB: One of the things I do talk about in the 6th chapter of the book is just that hard work really does pay off. Hard work really does payoff in terms of skills and stuff like that. It’s not necessarily rewarded in an organization, but when you look at the greats in terms of any area of skill-based individual achievement, yeah, the more you work, if you’re actually doing deliberate practice, it pays off. What does that mean? That means that somebody who works nine hours a day is going to do better than someone who works eight hours a day. Somebody who works 16 hours a day is going to be — It can almost become a prescription for workaholism and that can be dangerous. 

In the subtitle to the introduction, I talk about the decoding what successful people do so that we can learn to be more like them or so that we can learn why it’s good that we aren’t, because I would say the heights of success, you’re going to find a lot of workaholics and you’re also going to find a lot of people who are extraordinarily successful but not necessarily happy. 

When we look at the idea, the Buddhist ideas of kind of non-attachment, yeah, it’s like you want to reach the heights of success, the extremes. That may not be aligned with a much more modest forgiving, but would you be happy as a millionaire or do you have to be a billionaire? Those are the kinds of questions we need to ask ourselves, and that’s sort of the work-life balance question, because if you take it that there’s a more or less linear relationship between hard work and skill development, that’s going to lead you towards a workaholic attitude. If you take the attitude that, “I need to be enjoying myself. I need to have downtime. I need to have some fun.” Then that is going to take you away from the very, very heights potentially of success. 

It’s a decision we all need to make for ourselves. I quote Sam Harris in the book talking about, “If you want to reach the extremes of success,” he says, “is that align with those kind of Buddhist kind of more mild, not necessarily.” But on the other hand, as Harris says, “But do we need to be torturing ourselves as much as we do? Do we need to be as non-self-compassionate as we are?” The answer to that is probably no. We can definitely glean something from those more moderate detached Buddhist attitudes. In the end, as I talked about in the book, you need to have a personal definition of success. The standards that are presented to us in the media these days are statistical anomalies and not replicable for most people. If we hold ourselves to those standards, it’s almost a prescription for clinical depression. We need to say, “What’s going to make me happy? What is good enough?” That I think is very well-aligned with some of the more Buddhist ideas you’re talking about.  

[0:49:12.5] MB: How do you think about the idea — That I totally understand and agree with the — I’m a huge fan of deliberate practice and that these sort of direct relationship between time spent practicing and skill development. Zooming out or thinking about that kind of a different perspective, how do you think about the application, the 80-20 principle and sort of the nonlinear relationship between results produced and time spent, right? Because it’s not necessarily — If you’re looking at achievement broadly, or financial success, there’s a lot of other factors that go into that than sort of just raw time spent. 

[0:49:46.4] EB: That’s one of the things I think the biggest mistake people make when they haven’t really read the literature. It’s just, “Oh, 10,000 hours.” It’s like, “Well, no. It’s not 10,000.” I’ve definitely driven a car for 10,000 hours. That doesn’t prepare me to go into Formula One or NASCAR, because that wasn’t deliberate practice. I was not actually pushing my limits and trying to get better. I may have spent 10,000 hours washing my hair in the course of my life. I’m not an expert hair washer. 

First and foremost, realizing that 10,000 hours alone is just proof of nothing. It is the issue of deliberate practice. Again, there’s a lot of other factors as well. There are issues. If you’re 5 foot 4, you can spend 10,000 hours. I still don’t think you’ll be in the NBA. There are physical limitations, natural limitations, and also there’s always going to be diminishing marginal returns where the further along you go, the harder it’s going to be to improve your first year or two at anything you’re going to make. If you are using deliberate practice and spending a lot of hours, you’re going to get very good very fast. After those 10 years, it’s going to require enormous amounts of energy and effort and time just to move the needle a recognizable amount. 

I think very often when we’re talking about skill development, it’s grossly over simplified and because that’s what most people want to hear, but it is more nuanced than that and we need to be realistic about some of the limitations and some of what’s involved. I don’t think it’s surprising that many of the people who do reach the heights of skill development and success in arenas, even if they have natural gifts, there is usually a fair amount of obsessiveness involved. It’s seen again and again and again that we love to use more positive-spin words, like “passionate”, but when you look at a lot of the daily routines and habits of people who are extremely successful in sports, music, writing, etc., even science and other areas, the word obsessive rings a lot more true than passionate. When Jeffrey Pfeffer looked at top success executives in business, so you don’t have to be talking about the arts. He said that here’s a number of qualities you absolutely need to be in the top of your game. 

The first thing he listed was energy and stamina, because he just said you’re going to be working a lot. You’re going to be working hard and things are going to be thrown at you and if you don’t have energy and stamina, yeah, there’s a lot of great qualities you can have, but you’re just going to need to keep going. I think we have a lot of illusions about what it takes to get really good, but it’s a lot more nuanced than just a work hard. 

[0:52:40.3] MB: In the conclusion of the book you asked the question, “What makes for a successful life?” I’d love for you to share that wisdom with the listeners. 

[0:52:48.1] EB: In terms of a successful like, it’s like we really need to be thinking about that concept of alignment, of your signature strengths and picking the right environment. We need to really think about relationships. Relationships are really critical, because that is part of that environment, is the relationships you have. When you look at the results of the Grant study, which fall a number of men, I believe started in the 1930s and followed men throughout their entire life, in college, throughout, you saw that George Valliant who led the study for a few decades, when interviewed, he said that the most important thing in life is your relationships, full stop. That was critical. 

When you saw similar results out of a German study, which was another longitudinal study that followed people throughout their entire lives, because it’s very easy to do a sample of 100 undergrads for a month or two, but to follow people from their teen years or their youth all the way throughout, relationships are really critical. 

Obviously, in business, in one of the chapters I talk about networking and how important that can be. In terms of our lives, how you feel about other people. The interesting thing is those people with good relationships who felt loved, who gave love, actually were more career successful as well. That idea of aligning your signature strengths with your environment is really important, but if we’re not thinking about relationships and our connections with other people, we don’t — I don’t think any of us look forward to having deathbed regrets. What you see is when people are on their deathbed, in an informal study, that most of the things were not about work, not about career and financial success. In fact, quite the opposite. One of the top five deathbed regrets was, “I wish I had not worked as hard.” We need to be thinking about those relationships, because in the long term they seem to be much more important than the immediate finance or career successes. 

[0:54:49.3] MB: For somebody who’s listened to this interview and they want to concretely implement some of the advice and the wisdom that you shared, what would be one piece of homework that you would give them as a starting point to do that? 

[0:55:02.0] EB: I would say what we talked about in terms of know thyself. I would say to do an informal survey of your friends. The friends who aren’t just going to tell you what you want to hear. Who you know are — Who, in general, those friends are perhaps a little too honest. They have good news for you now. To ask 5 or 10 friends to tell you what they think your strengths and weaknesses are. Like I said, you’re going to hear some random things, but I think you’re going to hear a number of things repeated. 

Once you start to identify what those are, then you can start to think about your environment, and if you’re up for a career shift, you can think about an organization or a company that might respect those things. If somebody says, “You’re really organized. You’re fantastic with logistics,” then being a painter might not be the best choice. However, working for FedEx or UPS might be a fantastic choice if you’re really organized, time efficient and good at logistics.  

By the same token, to just understand wherever your strengths might lie, if you can align those. In the same way, even at home, with your partner, with family, to realize what you’re good at, what you’re not good at can really help your relationship in terms of dividing duties and tasks around the house or with kids in terms of your partner as supposed to both of you doing things which it’s inefficient for you to be handling when you have advantages elsewhere.

First and foremost, I would try and survey those friends. Try and get an idea of those strengths and then start thinking about who rewards those. What groups, organizations really reward and value those things, and then you can start to see to pick the right pond, to basically find the place where you fit in and you are valued and respected. I think that’s really critical. 

[0:56:58.7] MB: For listeners who want to find you, read of what you’ve written, where they can find you, your blog and the book online? 

[0:57:06.7] EB: Because my URL is a little hard to spell, I think the best thing is to probably either Google Barking Up the Wrong Tree, that’s my blog. Barking Up the Wrong Tree blog, or Google my name, Eric Barker. The best way to keep up with what I’m doing is to join my email list. You’ll get one email a week with my latest post in terms of the research and stuff I’ve been looking at. My book, Barking Up the Wrong Tree is available on Amazon and other retailers. They can find those there. 

[0:57:34.7] MB: We’ll make sure to include all of those in the show notes as well as all the studies that you talked about. There’s tons and tons of notes for this episode that I know listeners are going to want to dig into. 

Eric, thank you so much for coming on the show. As I’ve said, I’ve been a huge fan of your blog for years and years and it’s so great to have you come on and share all these knowledge with our listeners. 

[0:57:52.7] EB: Thanks so much, Matt. It was really a pleasure. 

[0:57:54.1] MB: Thank you so much for listening to The Science of Success. Listeners like you are why we do this podcast. Your support is what drives us and keeps us creating great new content, adding value to the world and interviewing amazing guests each week.

The emails and stories we receive from listeners around the globe bring us joy and fuel our mission to unleash human potential. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an email. My email is matt@successpodcast.com. That’s matt@sucesspodcast.com. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every listener email. 

The greatest compliment you can give us is a referral to a friend either live or online. If you’ve enjoyed this episode, please, leave us an awesome review and subscribe on iTunes, because that helps more and more people discover The Science of Success. 
	
I get a ton of listeners asking me, “Matt, how do you organize and remember all these information?” Because of that, we’ve created an amazing free guide for all of our listeners. You can get it by texting the word “smarter”, that’s “smarter” to the number 44222, or by going to successpodcast.com, that’s successpodcast.com and joining our email list. 

Don’t forget, if you want to get all these incredible information, links, transcripts, everything we just talked about in this show and, believe me, this particular interview with Eric Barker has a tremendous amount of show notes. Be sure to check out the show notes, you can to successpodcast.com and hit the show notes button at the top. 
 
Thanks again, and we’ll see you on the next episode of the Science of Success.


August 24, 2017 /Lace Gilger
Best Of
Best Of, Focus & Productivity, Decision Making
DeniseShull-01.png

The Mental Tools Olympians, Traders, & Top Performers Use To Make High Pressure Decisions with Denise Shull

June 15, 2017 by Lace Gilger in Emotional Intelligence, Decision Making, High Performance

In this episode we ask can, and should, we set aside our emotions to make decisions in huge, high-stakes environments (like trading)? How to channel and listen to your emotions to make even better decisions, learning from negative emotions, how historical echoes in our life create repeated behavior patterns, and much more with Denise Shull. 

Denise Shull is a decision coach, performance architect, and founder of the Re-Think Group. She utilizes psychological science to solve the issues of mental mistakes, confidence crises, and slumps in Olympic Athletes and Wall Street Traders. Her Book Market Mind Games has been described as “The Best of It’s Genre” and “The Rosetta Stone of Trading Psychology”. She has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, The New York Times, and consulted on the SHOWTIME Drama series Billions as one of the inspirations for Maggie Siff’s character - Wendy Rhodes.

We discuss:

  • How Denise studied the neuroscience of emotions and unconscious thought but ditched her PHD to become a trader

  • Can (and should) we set aside our emotions in a high-stakes environment like trading?

  • Why you should consciously incorporate your emotions into your decisions to make the best decisions

  • Feelings, thoughts, emotions, and physical body are all part of one integrated system and you have to think about it as an integrated continuum

  • Your psyche is trying to get important information to you by turning up the volume of your emotions

  • We should focus on finding the valuable kernel of information that our emotions are sending us

  • How do we learn from negative emotions (such as fear and anxiety)

  • Being able to differentiate between granularity of anxiety helps you process the feelings better

  • If you didn’t have some level of anxiety you would never do the preparation necessary

  • Define, as clearly as possible, the things you are afraid of, own it, connect head to stomach, and describe it with the word. (your psyche will feel like you got the message through)

  • Once your anxiety and fear feel acknowledged it naturally dissipates

  • The vital importance of journaling and being gentle and kind to yourself, to help you understand your emotions

  • Everyone has all kinds of feelings, everyone doubts themselves on some level, the top performers, hedge fund managers, and olympic athletes - its part of the human condition

  • How can historical echoes create repeated behavioral patterns?

  • The critical period for who we are and how we relate in the world happen very early - as Freud called them “the compulsion to repeat”, and as Denise calls them “echoes” or “fractals”

  • How studying traders and their trades showed Denise that people would trade in accordance with their life stories, and the patterns and mistakes they made repeated themselves again and again

  • Negative feelings are a mechanism to look and understand the fractals from our past and exploring child hood experiences can help you uncover more about them

  • The importance of doing the historical work, digging into your childhood, asking yourself “how would I have felt” (so you can get past the filter of “oh that didn’t bother me”)

  • An amazing question you can ask yourself about past events - how would someone else have felt about that? That question helps you break past the self denial that it did hurt you.

  • Repetitions of past mistakes are opportunities to reorganize things you weren't able to deal with in your past

  • Always ask - what would someone else think about that, how would someone else feel about this in the situation? You will often project your own feelings onto someone else

  • We primarily think that discipline will change behavior, which is not always the case

  • Feelings are the foundations of our consciousness, thoughts are built on top of that, you have a lot more leverage working on your feelings

  • Why you can’t solve everything with your head

  • The inaccuracies of the model of the “triune” brain - no neuroscientist at the cutting edge of neuroscience believes that anymore

  • The vital importance of sleep, exercise, and cultivating your physical system as part of building mental performance

  • One of the biggest commonalities between peak performers - dedication to getting better, putting in the work and the preparation, regardless of what it takes

  • Break down all the core pieces you need to achieve your goal

    1. Understand how those pieces fit together

    2. Execute every piece

  • The other major commonality of peak performers - self awareness

  • How to take negative energy to use that to help you continue to prepare towards your goals

  • How a lot of people ignore the social and emotional aspects of performance despite the massive leverage available to working there

  • Why the biggest mistake high performers make is to set aside their emotions

  • Unconscious setting feelings and emotions aside by being over scheduled - overactivity / constant distraction never gives you the opportunity to understand and dig into your emotional life

  • Know your feelings without judgment, take a step to try and understand what the kernel of that feeling is

  • You, your feelings and experiences matter and you need to take time to honor them

  • And much more!

Thank you so much for listening!

Please SUBSCRIBE and LEAVE US A REVIEW on iTunes! (Click here for instructions on how to do that).

SHOW NOTES, LINKS, & RESEARCH

  • [Book] How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain by Lisa Feldman Barrett

  • [Book] Market Mind Games by Denise Shull

  • [Website] The ReThink Group

  • [Blog] Market Mind Games

  • [Book] Emotional Agility: Get Unstuck, Embrace Change, and Thrive in Work and Life by Susan David

Episode Transcript

 
 [00:00:06.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success with your host, Matt Bodnar.
 
[0:00:12.6] MB: Welcome to The Science of Success. I’m your host, Matt Bodnar. I’m an entrepreneur and investor in Nashville, Tennessee and I’m obsessed with the mindset of success and the psychology of performance. I’ve read hundreds of books, conducted countless hours of research and study and I am going to take you on a journey into the human mind and what makes peak performers tick with the focus on always having our discussion rooted in psychological research and scientific fact, not opinion.
 
In this episode, we ask can and should we set aside our emotions to make decisions in huge high-stakes environments. We look at how to channel and listen to your emotions to make even better decisions. We talk about learning from negative emotions. How historical echoes in our life create repeated behavior patterns and much more with Denise Shull. 
 
The Science of Success continues to grow with more than 800,000 downloads, listeners in over 100 countries, hitting number one in New and Noteworthy, and more. I get listener comments and emails all the time asking me, “Matt, how do you organize and remember all this incredible information?” A lot of our listeners are curious about how I keep track of all the incredible knowledge I get from reading hundreds of books, interviewing amazing experts, listening to awesome podcast, and more.
 
Because of that, we’ve created an epic resource just for you; a detailed guide called How to Organize and Remember Everything. You can get it completely free by texting the word “smarter” to the number 44222. Again, it’s a guide we created called How to Organize and Remember Everything. All you have to do to get it is to text the word “smarter” to the number 44222 or go to scienceofsuccess.co, that’s scienceofsuccess.co, and put in your email.
 
In our previous episode, we looked at how Toyota turned the worst automobile factory in America into the best without changing any personnel. We discussed the paradox of choice, paralysis by analysis, and the danger of having too many choices. The vital importance of a multidisciplinary viewpoint to truly understand reality, we ask if there are any quick fixes for wisdom and much more with Dr. Barry Schwartz. If you want to get the keys to living a successful life, listen to that episode. 
 
Lastly, if you want to get all the incredible information, links, transcripts, everything we talked about in this episode and much more, be sure to check out our show notes. Just go to scienceofsuccess.co, hit the show notes button at the top. 
 
[0:02:43.6] MB: Today, we have another exciting guest on the show, Denise Shull. Denise is a decision coach performance architect and founder of the ReThink Group. She utilizes psychological science to solve the issues of mental mistakes, confidence crisis and slumps in Olympic athletes and Wall Street traders. 
 
Her book; Market Mind Games has been described as the best of its genre and the Rosetta Stone of trading psychology. She’s been featured in the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, The New York Times, and consulted on the Showtime drama series Billions as one of the inspirations for Maggie Siff’s character; Wendy Rhoades. 
 
Denise, welcome to the Science of Success. 
 
[0:03:19.6] DS: Thank you. I’m happy to be here.  
 
[0:03:21.4] MB: We’re very excited to have you on today. For listeners who may not be familiar with you and some of your work, tell us a little bit about your story and how you got started and sort of what your work looks like today. 
 
[0:03:32.8] DS: Well, I used to sell computers for IBM in my 20s and I was like, “Oh my gosh! If I’m 40 and doing this, I’m going to not be happy,” let’s just put it that way. I was very interested in psychology, went to the University of Chicago where they have this really cool design your own master’s program, and studied basically neuroscience of emotion and neuroscience of unconscious thought, like what’s going on in there that we don’t’ really know about. 
 
Then I played volleyball with four traders and they’d wanted me to be a trader. Basically, I ditched the Ph.D. and became a trader. I was trading, managing a trading desk. I thought I was going to be doing that forever, and that master’s degree was like this cool little thing that cost a lot of money but went nowhere. 
 
Then someone wanted to publish it 10 years after it was written. I was like, “Oh my gosh! It’s neuroscience. If you publish it as it is, you’ll sound archaic because you will be. Let’s update it.” What a group of scientists had shown, they’re all at UoC now, was that you had to have emotion to make a decision. All of the trading psychology, in Wall Street psychology, was take the emotion out if it. I was like, “Hmm, if you took the emotion out of it, literally, you couldn’t actually make the decision. This is a problem. We need to figure this out.” 
 
I basically started talking about it and, honestly, people started to asking me to talk and someone asked me to write a magazine article, and I’d really wanted to be journalist at one point, so I was like, “Oh, cool. I’ll get an article published.” 
 
Then I think it took on a life of its own because it resonated with people. People felt as if they were supposed to set the emotion aside and they found they couldn’t, but they kind of were ashamed of that and didn’t want to tell anymore, particularly traders. When I came along and started saying, “No. No. No. You have to have emotion to make a decision, and that’s what the science said.” Basically, were relieved and more people wanted to hear about it. Here we are 12 years later or whatever it is, with more people wanting to hear about it.  
 
[0:05:30.9] MB: One of the core things that you just mentioned is the idea that often times this sort of commonsense advice or that thin you hear repeatedly in high-stakes environments like trading is that we should try to set aside our emotions and be rational, but the research doesn’t necessarily support that conclusion. Is that correct?  
 
[0:05:50.1] DS: Yes, that is totally correct. In fact, there are lots of different researchers who come to the conclusion that the only way to be truly rational is to incorporate your emotion. Consciously incorporate your emotion into the decision. That if you understand what the emotion is about, what the meaning is, which parts of it don’t have to do with the decision you’re facing or the performance you’re facing, because there’s always a mix of what’s here and now and what’s not here and now. If you try to set it all aside, that just all gets jumbled and it affects you in the worst possible way at the worst possible moment.  
 
[0:06:29.4] MB: Tell me more about it. Expand on that concept that how do we consciously incorporate our emotions into our decision making and how does that make us more rational? 
 
[0:06:39.0] DS: Well, the first thing people have to do is actually just accept that feeling emotion, thought, and your physical being are one integrated system. The best analogy I can come up with a car. You need all the parts to have the car go forward and start and stop when you push the brakes. It doesn’t work without all of them for the most part. It’s a continuum from what’s called affect, which is just — The best way to understand affect is the difference between before and after you have coffee, or before and after you have a cocktail. That’s the difference in your affect, kind of your general mood outlook. 
 
Then that morphs into what we think of more as feelings, where your intuition unconscious pattern recognition is. Then extreme forms of affect and feeling are what we know as emotion. When you have this spike of an experience that’s intense and is driving you to do something. The trick is to change your viewpoint of that experience and start to look at that experience as information of the information about the here and now and information about what got you to the here and now. 
 
As you do that, start to pull that spaghetti ball apart. Particularly, all negative emotions have like a kernel of meaning and a kernel that can help you. Because, basically, the whole world been miss-taught emotion and certainly miss-taught negative emotion at this point in time, people never get to the valuable kernel, or let’s say rarely get to the valuable kernel. 
 
What happens is your psyche in trying to get like a piece of information to you that’s it's important that can protect you and help you and you try to set aside, it’s sort of the volume turns up. The irony of trying to set the emotion aside and particularly trying to set the negative emotion aside is that either the volume turns up so it gets more intense, or it gets diverted and convoluted into other situations including your help. 
 
Step one is just changing the viewpoint. People are really afraid of emotion and they’re certainly really afraid of negative emotion. Men more than women, legitimately, because men are taught from conception probably, do not have their feelings. Obviously, it’s not quite true, but practically. 
 
It's an attitude, and what happens is as people start to say, “Okay, my emotions aren’t something to be overcome, set-aside. They aren’t old from earlier in creation or evolution. They actually have value to me.” Once you change the attitude, then you're able to have and hold those feelings and as you’re able to do that actually and be very conscious about that, you really have much more control over how you choose to behave or act. 
 
I think I’ll let you ask me another person, because who knows whether I’m — What road I’m going down. 
 
[0:09:55.9] MB: No. I think that makes a lot of sense, and it's something that we dig into a lot on the show and something that fascinates me, which is this kind of core idea that we should focus on finding the valuable — As you said, the valuable kernel of information that our emotions are trying to send to us. 
 
How do we actually sort of practically do that? How do we listen more to our emotions and how do we change our orientation around the way we feel about negative emotions instead of trying to push them down or fight them or avoid them? How do we actually learn from them? 
 
[0:10:30.8] DS: Yeah. Step one, once you change your attitude. So it’s really step two. Let’s just take fear and anxiety. Research shows that being able to granular or differentiate between levels of nervousness, anxiety, fear, helps you handle it. 
 
One of the first things I do with actually my hedge funds and traders and, now, with the Olympic athletes, is get them to come up with their own spectrum, so on one level it’s — One edge of the spectrum is panic and the other is overconfidence, and choose their words, like doubt, concern, worry, anxiety, fear, terror, and actually think about the words and even look them up in the Thesaurus, even though we all know what these words mean. 
 
There are some piece of psychological event, energy, and this is not understood yet. Where using better language and getting the word right and even being able to use the words in different languages somehow helps us process the feeling better. Everybody's got anxiety in some level about a performance, about a decision, about their job, about their trade, about whatever. Whatever anyone’s doing, if you didn’t have a level of anxiety, you’d never do the preparation. 
 
Then depending on how you’ve learned to handle it, that anxiety can be more or less in the most important or most intense situations. In those really stressful situations, the more you can accurately say to yourself, “Okay, I'm really worried my boss is going to do blah-blah,” or, “I'm terrified. I'm going to fall,” if you’re a snowboarder. In trade, “Oh my gosh! I'm freaked out that I'm going to lose money.” 
 
The more you can say that to yourself, own it, connect head to stomach, own it and hold it right there with the right word that describes the level, the irony is that feeling contracts. There's something about that acknowledgment with language that seems right to you, that helps you connect head to gut, and then it's like your psyche has said, “Okay, I got the message through. I know that you know, Matt, that need to be a little concerned about this, so you need to go check X, Y and Z,” or whatever it is, that you need to be prepared. I’ve got the message through you, so I, as the anxiety or concern in your head, can now go back to sleep because you’ve got it. I know you’ve got it because you’ve acknowledged this feeling that I'm trying to serve up to you that was meant to remind you that you need to double check your preparation or whatever the situation is. I'm using double check your preparation is covering snowboarding pertaining to dealing with one's boss to, “And I’m big on television,” to whatever. The clue starts with actually changed attitude, getting comfortable with the words particularly around the spectrum of fear and anxiety. 
 
[0:13:48.0] MB: Concretely, what is this sort of connecting your head to your gut look like? Is it journaling? Is it therapy? Isn't talking to yourself? 
 
For somebody who’s listening to this that’s struggling, what would the sort of concrete actions that you would prescribe to them be as a starting point to really let those feelings be acknowledged and kind of let them bubble up and be understood? 
 
[0:14:12.7] DS: Well, for people who are comfortable doing it, which isn’t what you asked me, you can do it just talking to yourself in your head. A lot of my clients who’ve been working with me, I’ve got them to the stage where they can do it in their head or some of the snowboarders I’m working with who need to do it in their head because they’re in the starting day. That process of getting to that point, in an ideal world, you’ve got someone to talk to about it. It's really hard to find someone who can tolerate listening to someone's anxiety, because we listen to someone else talk about they’re nervous and we want to make them not nervous as supposed to give them the feeling that it's okay to have that feeling. 
 
What that leaves us with is journaling and someone being really gentle and kind to themselves and allowing themselves to have all of their feelings, because then on another level they are really just a feeling and they don't necessarily speak to exact reality. The journaling mechanism, if someone could get comfortable writing on a piece of paper or typing into a computer exactly how they feel without any judgment. That's a clue. Whether it's the journal judging you — There’s a process where people edit just when they go to write or whether the coach, mentor, therapist that you’re talking to will judge you in some way. What you want is a feeling that whatever feeling you have is okay and that step one is just to be able to look, observe that feeling, get more information about describing it. 
 
In a practical level, you don’t have to pay for a therapist, have a coach if you can learn to use writing as a way to be that accepting other person for yourself. 
 
[0:16:07.3] MB: How do we get rid of the judgment? 
 
[0:16:12.9] DS: Yeah, that's the question, isn’t it? I want to say, “Hey, it’s just you and yourself and you’re allowed to have all your feelings, and your feelings are meant to help you. What’s the point judging yourself?” It's just a piece of paper and you’re just trying to understand what your feelings are trying to tell you what that message is about. Is it relevant to the thing I’ve got to face today? Or does it tell me something that I need to look into in general, or something I need to understand about myself general? It's just research.
 
I can tell you from my vantage point everyone has all kinds of feelings, sand everyone doubts themselves on some level. It's just part of the human condition. Now, I've worked with people who have hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars and a lot of people might look at them and think they don't have anything to be worried about, and they’re no different than the next human being. Everybody has levels of concern and worry because it is a driver — Understood in a pure form, it is a driver of what makes us better. 
 
In most cases, it doesn't exist in a pure form because no one has learned to understand this way, so it’s been mishandled. So then it's gotten exaggerated. One [inaudible 0:17:47.5] history with fear and anxiety comes to bear at any given situation, and that's like the untangling part that you can certainly start to do in a journal. It helps to have someone to talk through it with back to the value of language that's I think not yet explained in neuroscience. 
 
Let me say, don't judge yourself. Of course, I know it’s way easier said than done, but I’ll still say it. There’s no reason to judge yourself. All your feelings are okay. It doesn’t matter they are. They’re just feelings. If you understand them, you don't have to automatically act on them. 
 
[0:18:24.7] MB: This makes me think about — And you touched on something earlier that I do want to get back to which is the kind of integrated physical system of the body and how it's all kind of one whole. Before we touch on that, this makes me think about something else you’ve talked about which are these ideas of we have almost these historical echoes that create repeated behavior patterns. I don't know if those would be the same thing as limiting beliefs or sort of related to limiting beliefs. I'd love to dig in to that concept. 
 
[0:18:53.1] DS: Yeah, they’re very similar to limiting beliefs. That master’s thesis actually was entitled The Neurobiology of the Theory of Freud's Repetition Compulsion, or Freud’s theory of the repetition compulsion. You’d think I know the name of my master’s thesis. 
 
In any event, Freud identified this phenomenon in human beings where we get ourselves in repetitive circumstances. We marry one person, get divorced, get married again, completely different person have the same exact feeling and the same exact documents. We got from one job with certain kind of difficulties with our colleagues, our bosses. We go a different job, different people, same thing. 
 
He identified this back in 1800s, and I saw it in my friends, and I saw it somewhat in myself. I was like, “Why is this? There has to be some sort of unconscious template in there where we’re making choices and we’re behaving in certain ways that cause situation A to be exactly like situation B 5, 8, 10-year, or 20 years later, whatever, 30, 40 years later even though the ingredients are completely different. 
 
I’ve studied that. I wrote about it and how templates for relationships start, again, from conception, not from birth. How there’s something called a critical period in birds where if a bird doesn’t lean its song at a certain point, it never learns it, and so I suggested that there were critical periods for all kinds of things. 
 
The critical periods for who we are and how we relate in the world happen to us very early. That becomes what is generally known as limiting beliefs. Freud called it the compulsion to repeat. I originally called it echoes in my work. I turned back to fractals, which I’ll come back to in a second. 
 
What I discovered when I started working with traders is that they would take the market and the prices moving at the market, and the market would function like their boss, or their spouse. They like a war shack plot, they would impute meaning to the way the market personal meaning to where the market was behaving, and then they would react. 
 
A lot of people react to the market as an authority figure and maybe would rebel and get bigger in a market position that they were losing money in. Like as a way of rebellion. Once I started to realize that people were taking their life stories and their viewpoint of themselves and I think what you would refer to as limiting beliefs, and making the market their partner in there. It’s like, obviously the market is not — The market doesn’t care anything about any one particular person. 
 
As I started to write about it in my book, I actually realized there's a concept called — Well, there’s a thing known as fractal geometry, so like broccoli or trees are the perfect example of fractals, meaning what one stalk of broccoli, when you look at it, really looks the same as the whole head of broccoli, or one branch of a tree really looks the same as a whole tree and it's just a matter of scale. I started thinking, “You know what? I think human beings effectively that are psychology is fractal,” and so we have the snippets of experience in our first 5, 10, 15 years. 
 
Then we don't know are like buried in there, but they are the DNA or the pattern for the tree or the broccoli in our head. We experience them as our self-concept as limiting beliefs. We’re acting out of those. What we can do the kind of unravel is untangle and connect those feelings to situations that might have occurred in our family. I could start telling a list of situations that might have occurred in our families, but we all know what those are. 
 
My opinion is that it is literally a neurological phenomenon that gets set up some sort of critical period thing and how a human develops in terms of who we are and where we fit in the world. Unless we look at it, it just stays that way. The mechanism for getting us to look at it is feelings that we have that make us unhappy in adult situations. We could try to set those feelings aside or we could say, “Okay, these set of feelings makes me unhappy. Oh, by the way, it’s the exact same thing that’s happened last time with a different boss. How do I figure out which part of that is me just bring this fractal echo experience that was given to me are set up for me, for let’s just say, because I was like third oldest boy in the family and my two older brothers picked on me? I might more incline to think that my boss is picking on me, when he's really not.” 
 
Until you start to realize, “Wait a minute, my feelings don't match the situation, but my feelings do match situations I’ve experienced while growing up.” That gives you the awareness to start to be able to pull that apart and then react in the present with the factors in the present as supposed to what you just called limiting beliefs, but I think are coming from earlier experiences in the form of fractals or echoes is something that people relate to, because it feels like an echo. It’s feels like this is happening again. I’ve heard this story before. I’ve seen this movie before. 
 
[0:24:41.4] MB: The kind of method or intervention to resolve that, is that the same kind of methodology? Is it things like journaling? How do we start to unravel and reconnect those feelings and sort of repair those fractals from our past so that they don't repeat themselves? 
 
[0:25:00.3] DS: What I did for traders in my book was send people through a series of exercises, because the clue is — The way to do — and it is helpful to have someone help you do it, I mean, admittedly. Having said that, if someone keeps track of the experiences they’re having in their adult life that are making them unhappy, i.e. I’m using unhappy for frustrated, afraid. Keeps track of those and writes down the circumstances and their feelings, and completely separately from that tries to come up with five memories from growing up, that could be from when you were three or when your eight or when you were 10 or when you're 15, and write about those and write about what you remember what happened and then write about how it fell then compared the two. Virtually, if you’ve done that exercise accurately without judging yourself on either front, the what's going on here and now and what happened back then when you got kicked out of third grade of whatever, you’ll find matches. 
 
It feels now like it felt that. People are mostly astounded by that, and a lot of people don't want to do that sort of historical work. My attitude towards that is like if it solves a repetitive frustration difficulty in the here and now, why not? To me, it seems like a gift, not a problem. 
 
The short version is if you can figure out what's happening to you repetitively now and you can separately like not try and book for it, write about memories from difficult situations growing up and how you would've felt bad. That's a clue. To think how you did feel, but then also ask yourself how would I have felt, and the reason for that is to get past that kind of filter of, “Oh, it didn’t really bothered me. It was no big deal,” which is what people tend to say. 
 
Think about, “Okay if that happened to someone else, how might they have felt?” Then if you’re trying to make the difficult feelings easier and just more acceptable and like — What’s the word I’m looking for? It's hard sometimes to admit that you’ve felt this, that or the other thing when you were 10 years old. It’s harder in a way than admitting it now, because the way kinds get through things, by the way, also, is like to not feel stuff and to put things in boxes and to be tough. Then those things get put in boxes and never get dealt with. I think the repetitions are opportunities to reorganize things that you couldn’t deal with as a kid when you didn't have any control over what was happening to you and you really kind of had to set something in a box in order to function and cope since you were at the mercy of the adults around you. 
 
Now, you can unwrap those boxes and then deal with that stuff and then have it affect you much less in your real life, and if it affects you less, even any amount less, you’re able to perform at a higher level. 
 
[0:28:18.7] MB: I think that’s a great point. Especially the idea of asking how would someone else have felt about that, or how would I have felt about that. I think it helps short-circuit almost the denial of, “Oh, that didn't really hurt me that badly. That didn't really affect me that badly.” 
 
I definitely can see that in myself where sometimes I’ll think about struggles someone’s had or something they’ve gone through and feel like, “Wow! I really feel bad for them,” or whatever. Then I think, “I’ve experienced that too,” and I definitely didn’t feel any sympathy for myself and I definitely didn’t give myself the opportunity to feel that pain and really be present to it, and I kind of tried to bury it under the rug. 
 
I think I love those questions and ways to frame it outside of yourself in some ways so that you can escape that defense mechanism. 
 
[0:29:07.5] DS: Yeah. That works all the time, by the time. Always saying how would someone else — I use that with my clients sometimes. They can't remember how they feel or they don't how they feel in a certain situation. Then I'll say, “What is your brother think about that, or what is your wife think about that, or what is your boss think about that?” 

People oftentimes will — Or how did your brother feel about? How did your wife feel about that? How did your boss feel about that? How does your husband feel about that? People will actually say their own feelings. They’ll project their own feelings on to that other person. You can do that for yourself. Just by thinking about situations growing up, like “Well, how did my sister feel about that?” or exactly the reasons you said. 
 
[0:29:49.0] MB: This goes into another concept that you’ve talked about which I want to understand better, which is the concept of creating behavior through expected feelings. Can you tell me a little bit about what that is and how we can do that?
 
[0:30:04.1] DS: The mechanism we usually use to change behavior is some form of discipline; don’t eat that, work harder, think like this. What works better is if we — Let’s just say just working out. Like, “Okay, I don’t feel like working out today.” “Well, I should workout. I know it’s good for me to workout. I promise myself I’d workout. I’m trying to be disciplined.” You think, “What will I feel like if I do workout? What will I feel like if I worked out consistently?” If you exchange the current feeling for the future feeling, it's easier to do the thing that you want versus using an intellectual thought-base directive. 
 
With traders, that market is really provocative and traders do things they don’t want to do all the time, get into trades. They didn’t mean to make their trade sides way bigger. Getting them to think about how they’re going to feel tonight, tomorrow, the end of the week, the end of the month, helps them avoid reacting to the provocation of the market. It’s really just taking — If feelings are essentially the foundation of our consciousness and the foundation of our motivation and thoughts really are layered on top, working with feelings that the feeling level is more like working with the actual gasoline you put in the car as supposed to working with oil per se. 
 
It’s got more leverage to imagine how something will make you feel in the future and that you want that feeling as supposed to you're supposed to do something. Because you’re supposed to do something, so that’s a thought, like fighting against a current feeling, and you want equal weapon so to speak. You want feeling against feeling as supposed to thought against feeling. Most people think it’s the opposite, like discipline yourself, think yourself. It works to a degree. When it works, that’s fine, but you really — I get people all the time in the trading world. The reason people come to me is they’ve tried every sort of psychology method and they still have this one thing they can’t solve, it’s because they’re just trying to use their heads to solve it. 
 
If they try to use future feelings, imagine how it will feel if they do or don't do this, then that’s got some torque. That’s got some power with it. 
 
[0:32:37.3] MB: Essentially, if we have some sort of activity that we know we should be doing or something we need to be doing but our current state is preventing us, “Oh, I don't feel like doing XYZ.” We want to project forward and say, “How will I feel if I have done that or if I’ve achieved that or if I’ve worked out every day for the last week,” and use that sort of future feeling of of positivenessto to fight back against the current feeling of, “I don’t want to do that.” 
 
[0:33:06.1] DS: Yes. Step one is actually really truly admitting you don’t want to. The same with the fear, like letting yourself, “Okay, I really don't feel like doing this right now.” “Okay, I really don’t I feel like doing this right now, but if I did it, how would I feel if I did it?” Would that feeling be worth behaving in a way than my current feeling? Because the first, they’re really admitting it and connecting to it in and of itself can dissipate it. Like, “Okay, I really don't feel like it.” “Yeah, yeah, but I should.” 
 
What I’m saying is naming the current feeling actually can change the current feeling enough that the thought might make a difference. Then if the thought doesn’t make a difference, saying, “Okay, yeah. But if I did it, how would feel afterwards and how will I feel if I — in the future, if I continue doing this?” I hope that makes sense. 
 
[0:34:02.4] MB: No. I think it does make sense. I’d like to go back to something you touched on much earlier in the conversation which is the idea of the mind, the body, everything as an integrated system, and specifically around the notion of the inaccuracy of the model of the triune brain. Can you talk about that? 
 
[0:34:21.6] DS: Yeah, it’s not a triune brain. I don’t mean to sound flip it. It’s really really common. In fact, it’s particularly common on Wall Street and in finance. It’s something called behavioral finance. People talk about all these decision mistakes we make then they talk about this triune brain that’s supposedly is and basically our thinking in analytics is the most developed, feeling an emotion in the middle and the stuff that keeps us alive, near to our brainstem and that it’s supposedly develop that way. 
 
It's hard for me to say anything, but like no neuroscientist at the cutting edge of neuroscience believes that anymore. Children that have nothing but brainstem have been shown to have feelings; laughter, sadness, just this sort of one extreme example. Now, not only is the triune brain essentially been disproven. The idea that you have one part of your brain, like the amygdala, dealing with fear, that's not looking so lively either anymore, and that different instances of thought, our feeling, our recruiting, all sorts of different neurons and synapses across the whole brain depending on the situation and depending on the person’s history. 
 
There’s actually a new book called How Emotions are Made by a woman named Lisa Feldman Barrett, who she is an academic. She wrote it as a popular book. It’s still fairly dense, but she lays out hundreds of studies supporting the inaccuracy of both the triune brain and the we have certain circuits for certain emotions and even certain facial expressions for certain emotions and shows it might and really convincingly that, again, this system is more like a car and it’s recruiting all of these different pieces of functionality. That’s not like a car, and that a brain might recruit different neurons and synapses for a certain experience on one day than it does from another. 
 
Now, there’s probably a reason for that whether there’s something slightly different about the experience that then recruits at a different part of the brain. The point being happiness, sadness, fear, don’t look the same in every brain all the time, even though you still hear that. There was an article in the New York Times saying that Tuesday or Wednesday. It’s still definitely the conventional wisdom, that we have a three-part brain and there are certain parts of the brain dedicated to certain feelings 
 
I think the evidence is really convincing that neither one of those are true. The good news is it means that we have a lot of literally neurological possibility to work with our brains in ways that allow us to get different results. 
 
[0:37:12.2] MB: For listeners who may not be as familiar with it. Briefly, just describe what is the conventional model of the triune brain, sort of the three components and what each of their functions are. 
 
[0:37:23.1] DS: You have this frontal cortex that does your thinking and analysis, and that’s the most developed part. That’s the parts you’re supposed to be using. That’s one part. You have this kind of middle part that's feelings and emotions that supposedly we needed back when we were hunting and gathering. Then you have the deepest, oldest part, which is in the back of your of head, which is keeping your heart beating and your lungs breathing and your stomach digesting. 
 
In that model, people tend to think that this theoretically developed thinking analytical part should be able to manage override the earlier two parts, and its more advanced and you should be relying mostly on it. If that's not the model, and all three parts are working together in concert all the time, you can't be expecting that supposedly thinking analytical part to be overriding the extensible earlier, more primitively developed parks. That makes sense? 
 
[0:38:35.0] MB: That definitely makes sense. I just wanted to describe what that model was for people who may not be familiar — 
 
[0:38:39.3] DS: Yeah, I get it. 
 
[0:38:41.1] MB: Zooming out a little bit, but still staying on the kind of the notion of an integrated physical system, tell me about the importance that you’ve seen. I know you coach and deal with some high performers at the highest levels, hedge fund managers, Olympic athletes. What have you seen about the importance of supporting the physical system itself, the body, sleep habits, exercise, et cetera,  as a component of mental performance? 
 
[0:39:07.3] DS: Sometimes I hate to say it because, honestly, if someone gets enough sleep and not physical movement —I don’t mean too much, by the way. Then it makes such a difference in a person's mood outlook or what we would call affect attitude, like an optimism. 
 
The right amount — Obviously, it’s not an algebraic formula, but with a good amount of physical activity and definitely a lot of sleep, your attitude toward something, your ability to perceive risk is so much more optimal than without it. 
 
For example, when a regular client who I’ve been working with who’s doing well, calls me up for a regular coaching session and says, “I blew it yesterday. I like add it to a loser.” One of the first things I ask is, “Okay, were your kids up at 3 AM?” We’re you up looking at the London markets at 3 AM?” Some large percentage of the time they end up saying, “Yes.”
 
Sleep is starting to be, as I’m sure you know, much more respected and revered. There was an article in the New York Times yesterday about it being the new status symbol, but there’s still an awful lot of pressure to survive on not enough sleep and just life in general and households with kids and dogs and cats and whatnot, tended to keep people from getting enough sleep. 
 
That physical basis of — That’s what we are, right? We’re physical creatures operating in these bodies that are, again, a bit like cars. We need to change the oil, and sleep is a bit like that. 
 
[0:41:03.1] MB: Looking at all these different high-performers that you work with, what are some of the habits that you either recommend to cultivate the peak performance or see repeatedly again and again from peak performers. I know they may be some things we've already touched on, but I'm curious what are the commonalities you see between the elite level performers that you work with. 
 
[0:41:23.6] MB: Dedication to getting better, like putting in the work and the preparation regardless of what it takes. It's not about just a raw gifts. It's about taking the situation and the thing you want to accomplish and breaking down all of the different pieces that cause you to — Would contribute to you achieving the goal and being accurate about that. People have a tendency, by the way, to over focus on one piece of it, but it's the understanding of the whole situation and the competition being a direct or a very important aspect of that. 
 
What is your competition doing and what do you need do to perform at the level of — At least at, if not, obviously above your competition. That dimension, whether that's in athletics or in markets, helps a lot. Then within that deconstruction of all of the aspects, a solid understanding of the competition is self-awareness and is becoming more aware of one's own baseline level of affect feeling and emotion and the meanings of those feelings and emotions and when they spike, understanding what that's about and how to take the energy, negative feelings, particularly in the realm of frustration which could go to anger and figuring out how to use that to help you continue to prepare within that whole deconstruction of everything that you’ve looked at that will get you where you want to be. 
 
People who do that, whether it's in athletics or in the markets and you could call it a very holistic view. A lot of people do all of the pieces, but the social emotional awareness. They don’t really analyze what they’re competing against and they certainly don't get as emotionally self-aware as they could, and both of those are real levers. 
 
[0:43:39.8] MB: On the flipside, what are some of the biggest mistakes that you see high performers make? 
 
[0:43:45.5] DS: It’s always just trying to set their emotion aside, to use that thinking analytical part of the brain to set the feeling aside without a doubt, because everyone thinks that’s what they’re supposed to do. In certain situations, the thing to do is say, “Okay, I can’t focus on this feeling now, but it doesn’t mean I have to never focus on it. Maybe I need to put it in this box over here, this envelope over here to be dealt with tonight or tomorrow or next week.” 
 
The general conscious, setting feelings much in the side; and unconscious, setting them aside through like over-activity, being overscheduled or overtraining for that matter, not allowing yourself to have a minute of downtime to recognize the feeling and emotion dimension and the feedback to pulling it apart, untangling it. In one word, I could say over-activity. 
 
[0:44:45.3] MB: The ideas the over-activity robs us the ability to truly listen to our emotions and do the work necessary, to remap those and get the leverage that you can get out of a truly deep understanding and being kind of in harmony with your emotions. 
 
[0:45:04.7] DS: Yeah, you never give yourself — You’re constantly distracted. You never give yourself time. Like with market people, they’re always analyzing the market. With athletes, they’re always working out. There’s this whole other dimension that it feels like you’re not doing something. You’re potentially doing the most important thing to give yourself time and space to be more self-aware. 
 
[0:45:30.7] MB: What is one piece of homework that you would give to somebody listening to this conversation to concretely implement some of the ideas and concepts we’ve talked about today? 
 
[0:45:41.1] DS: Resolve to allow yourself to have all of your feelings, even what seem like the worst ones and learn to put a word to that to be able to say, “I feel really frustrated. I feel furious.” Then say, “About what? What's that really about?” 
 
If you just resolve to allow yourself to know all your feelings without judgment and then take the step of trying to understand what the kernel is, that has something ramifications for over-activity and health performance, and your order in yourself. You’re saying that you and your feelings and your experience means something and they matter, and they do, and everyone can do that for themselves. It will be hard for some people, but it can take a step in that direction for sure. 
 
[0:46:45.7] MB: For listeners who want to learn , where can people find you and your work online? 
 
[0:46:51.8] DS: My company is called The ReThink Group. The website is therethinkgroup.com. I have a blog. I haven’t had much time to keep up with that lately. I have also done some writing over the years on Psychology Today. If one were to Google me in Psychology Today, fine. It’s over things, but still completely relevant there. 
 
If you're in the market, Market Mind Games, it’s a pretty good book. You can. I have had people read Market Mind Games and apply it to their lives outside of that market. I think those are good places. 
 
[0:47:29.5] MB: Denise, this has been a fascinating conversation and I feel like we’ve really gotten to go deep into how to think about our emotions, how to better uncover some of our emotions and how they may be holding us back. Thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing your wisdom today. 
 
[0:47:44.8] DS: Thank you for having me. 
 
[0:47:46.4] MB: Thank you so much for listening to The Science of Success. Listeners like you are why we do this podcast. The emails and stories we receive from listeners around the globe bring us joy and fuel our mission to unleash human potential. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi. Be sure to shoot me an email. My email is matt@scienceofsuccess.co. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every listener email.
 
The greatest compliment you can give us is a referral to a friend, either live or online. If you’ve enjoyed this episode, please, leave us an awesome review and subscribe on iTunes, because that helps more and more people discover The Science of Success. 
 
I get a ton of listeners asking, “Matt, how do you organize and remember all these information?” Because of that, we’ve created an amazing free guide for all of our listeners. You can get it by texting the word “smarter” to the number 44222, or by going to scienceofsuccess.co, that’s scienceofsuccess.co and joining our email list. 
 
If you want to get all these incredible information, links, transcripts, everything we just talked about and much more, be sure to check out our show notes. You can get them at scienceofsuccess.co and hit the show notes button at the top. 
 
Thanks again, and we’ll see you on the next episode of The Science of Success.
 

June 15, 2017 /Lace Gilger
Emotional Intelligence, Decision Making, High Performance
PerryMarshall-01.jpg

How You Can Work Less & Achieve More by Mastering This ONE Key Principle with Perry Marshall

April 13, 2017 by Lace Gilger in High Performance, Decision Making, Money & Finance
Check Out Perry's Epic Course on 4xing Your Productivity With 80/20

In this episode we look at what rabbit populations, craters on the moon, files on your hard-drive and the GDP of countries have in common, we discuss The power of fractals, the math of chaos theory, and what that all has to do with the 80/20 principle, How your understanding of the 80/20 is only the tip of the iceberg, how to generate 16x more leverage to achieve your goals, we go deep into sales wisdom from one of the world's top marketing consultants and much more with Perry Marshall.  

Perry Marshall is a trained engineer and one of the world’s most sought-after business consultants, helping clients across 300 industries by combining sales, engineering, art, and psychology. Perry is the bestselling author of several books including The Ultimate Guide To Google AdWord, 80/20 Sales and Marketing and Evolution 2.0.

  • How Perry went from being laid off and surviving on ramen and bologna sandwiches to becoming one of the world's top marketing consultants

  • How your understanding of the 80/20 principle is only the tip of the iceberg

  • What Fractals and Chaos Theory have to do with the 80/20 principle

  • What the pattern that Earthquakes, volcanoes, tornados and hurricanes follow has to do with marketing strategy

  • Fractals are everywhere in your life, nature, and the universe

  • The raw power of the butterfly effect

  • How the 80/20 principles rules everything in your life and business

  • “Levers within levers, within levers” and how that can shape your focus

  • Where to find the tiny hinges that swing huge doors

  • What do rabbit populations, craters on the moon, files on your hard-drive and the GDP of countries have in common?

  • How to align yourself with the 80/20 principle and harness its incredible power

  • Do you want to live in the IS world or the SHOULD BE world?

  • If you deal with reality the way it is things become effortless

  • Once you understand the 80/20 principle, it transforms what you focus on

  • How most problems in life are a result of being on the wrong side of the 80/20 equation

  • What is “racking the shotgun?” and why is it so important

  • Don’t focus on fixing the bad 80%, focus on reproducing the successful 20%

  • One of the jobs of civilization is to mitigate the 80/20 principle

  • The world will always condition you to focus on the underperforms (the 80%)

  • You can get “A's" in six different subjects, but you’re gonna make a living in ONE

  • If you try 20 projects, the law of 80/20 says 1 should succeed!

  • Failure is OK, you only have to go get rich once

  • The 20% is 16x more leverage than the 80% that doesn’t generate results

  • Everyone is in sales in some form or fashion in their lives

  • Sales is not a convincing people process, sales and elimination process

  • First thing you should do in sales is disqualify people as quickly as possible

  • Never ask someone who can say no but who cannot say yes

  • The key questions you need to ask to disqualify sales leads

  • The story of the $2700 espresso machine

  • The 8 different modalities of selling and how you can thrive by embracing your own unique sales strengths

  • And much more!

Thank you so much for listening!

Please SUBSCRIBE and LEAVE US A REVIEW on iTunes! (Click here for instructions on how to do that).

SHOW NOTES, LINKS, & RESEARCH

  • Check out Perry’s Epic Course on how to 4x Your Productivity Using the 80/20 Principle

  • [Website] Fractal Foundation

  • [Website] 80/20 Curve

  • [Book] 80/20 Sales and Marketing by Perry Marshall

  • [Book] The 80/20 Principle: The Secret to Achieving More with Less by Richard Koch

  • [Personal Site] Perry Marshall

  • [Blog Article] How To Perform An 80/20 Analysis by Matt Bodnar

Episode Transcript

[00:00:06.4] ANNOUNCER: Welcome to The Science of Success with your host, Matt Bodnar.

[0:00:12.6] MB: Welcome to The Science of Success. I’m your host, Matt Bodnar. I’m an entrepreneur and investor in Nashville, Tennessee and I’m obsessed with the mindset of success and the psychology of performance. I’ve read hundreds of books, conducted countless hours of research and study and I am going to take you on a journey into the human mind and what makes peak performers tick, with the focus on always having our discussion rooted in psychological research and scientific fact, not opinion.

In this episode, we look at what rabbit populations, craters on the moon, files on your hard drive, and the GDP of countries have in common. We discuss the power of fractals, the math of chaos theory, and what that all has to do with the 80-20 principles. How your understanding of the 80-20 principle is only the tip of the iceberg. How to generate 16 times more leverage towards achieving your goals. We go deep into sales wisdom from one of the world’s top marketing consultants, and much more, with Perry Marshall. 

The Science of Success continues to grow with more than 800,000 downloads, listeners in over 100 countries, hitting number one in New and Noteworthy, and more. I get listener comments and emails all the time asking me, “Matt, how do you organize and remember all this incredible information?” A lot of our listeners are curious about how I keep track of all the incredible knowledge I get from reading hundreds of books, interviewing amazing experts, listening to awesome podcast, and more.

Because of that, we’ve created an epic resource just for you; a detailed guide called How to Organize and Remember Everything. You can get it completely free by texting the word “smarter” to the number 44222. Again, it’s a guide we created called How to Organize and Remember Everything. All you have to do to get it is to text the word “smarter” to the number 44222 or go to scienceofsuccess.co and put in your email.

In our previous episode, we discussed how you can create success by mashing two seemingly unrelated ideas together. We looked at why energy is the currency of the biological world and how that impacts the evolution of money within our society. We went deep into understanding money and its role in our lives and we looked at why you should investigate your own biases about money, with Kabir Sehgal. If you want to improve your understanding of money, listen to that episode. 

[0:02:27.6] MB: Today, we have another awesome guest on the show, Perry Marshall. Perry is a trained engineer and one of the world’s most sought after business consultants and marketing experts helping clients across 300 industries by combining sales, engineering, art, and psychology. He’s also a bestselling author of several books including The Ultimate Guide to Google AdWords, 80/20 Sales and Marketing, and Evolution 2.0.

Perry, welcome to The Science of Success.

[0:02:53.8] PM: Hey, thanks for having me on the show, and you guys got a big following and a lot of interesting guests that you had. It’s really an honor. We talked earlier and I think we’re going to have a rocking conversation today. 

[0:03:07.8] MB: I think it’s going to be great, and there’s so much that you talk about that I think the audience is really going to enjoy. Before we dig into that, tell us a little bit — I kind of gave a brief bio. Tell us a little bit about yourself and your story.

[0:03:20.1] PM: I was about 25 years old when I got laid off from my first engineering job and my wife was three months pregnant. I could have stayed in the same track I was on if I was willing to move, but I wasn’t willing to pull up roots, and so I ended up going into sales. I thought, “Well, this shouldn’t be too hard.” A couple of years of bologna sandwiches and ramen soup later, it’s like, “Wow! This is not for the faint of heart.”

I eventually did find my way and I eventually did find the groove, but really, there were some excruciating periods of time where the bills weren’t getting paid and I just try all these stuff and it wouldn’t work. I would spend all my time trying to pound through brick walls and everything. 

Eventually, 20 years later, writing a book that’s — The book that I wish I’d had when I was starting out, or for that matter, all the different marketing stuff, because any more — If you don’t have some marketing to back you up as a sales person, you’re screwed. That’s what that’s about. 

Life is a lot different now. Ironically, I’m a sales and marketing consultant. I think that actually goes back to the fact that it’s not hard to teach what was hard for you to learn. I had a huge learning curve. I think I can explain a lot of that stuff in ways that were never explained to me.

[0:05:02.2] MB: I know one of the transformational ideas in your life is the concept of the 80/20 principle. I’d love to kind of — Many people hear that and they think, “Oh, yeah. Of course, I know what he 80/20 principle is.” Your understanding of it is so much deeper than that. I’d love for you to kind of explain to the audience why the surface level understanding is really only the tip of the iceberg.

[0:05:25.4] PM: I heard about the 80/20 principle back when I was marketing manager and I thought, “Oh! That’s interesting. Okay, 80% of your sales come from 20% of your customers.” I actually printed out a QuickBooks report and I went through it and, “I’ll be darned. That’s pretty much exactly right. That’s interesting.” 

At that point, I thought I knew it. I thought I knew what it meant, and I really didn’t. I would politely suggest that most people have never really explored what it actually is and what it means. Let me tell you two little stories back-to-back that will kind of tie this together for you. 

The first story, it goes back to when I was in college and my wife went to the library and came home with a book on fractals and chaos. Hopefully, most people have seen fractals before, those computer images where there’s spirals, and there’s a spiral on the spiral, and there’s a spiral on the spiral on the spiral. If you haven’t seen this, you should type fractals in YouTube and just start clicking on stuff and you’ll quickly see it. 

She brought this book home and I was looking through it, and I discovered, “This isn’t just interesting shapes. This is actually a major way that the world works.” If you look at a tree, you see that branching pattern, but then you can zoom in and the branches have branches, and then those branches have branches, and you can get down the leaves and you could get a microscope and even the little veins that feed the individual cells are still showing that branching pattern. That’s a fractal pattern. It’s a pattern that repeats over and over and over again.

What the book explained is this is very closely related to the way that things like earthquakes, and volcanoes, and weather, and hurricanes, and tornadoes, and avalanches are all predictably unpredictable. They always follow certain patterns. It’s just the specific instance that you can’t quite predict. You can be sure that somewhere in the Rocky Mountains, if you clap your hand at the right place at the right time, you’re going to trigger an avalanche. It speaks to the way cracks travel through glass when a rock hits your windshield and cracks on the sidewalk, or sand dunes — Getting these whole new lens for the world. There had never been language for any of these. Of course, I had seen all my life, but suddenly, there was language. I thought it was all very interesting. 

Then, I went out to my car the next day, and it was as cold November day and there were ice crystals on my car, and I looked at those ice crystals and I go, “Oh my word. Those are little tiny fractals growing on the roof of my car.” They’re everywhere, and I couldn’t — From that point forward, I couldn’t not look out the window and see the pattern, the traffic is fractal, and rivers are fractals. 

Anyways, that’s a little geeky. Of course, I know your audience probably enjoys things like that. Fast-forward to — Actually, this is more than 10 years ago, I was reading Richard Koch’s book, The 80/20 Principle. Early in the book, he just mentioned for maybe a paragraph or two that the 80/20 principle was closely related to fractals and chaos, and the butterfly effect which says that a butterfly’s wings can trigger a hurricane six months’ later half a world away, because that’s how weather actually works. That’s why you can’t predict it more than two or three weeks out. 

He made this comment, and all of a sudden, something clicked in my brain and I connected 80/20 to the fractals and the chaos. What I suddenly realized was 80/20 is the arithmetic of chaos and fractals. That means there’s an 80/20 inside every 80/20, and then there’s  another one, and another one, and another one, and this all just exploded in my brain in about 10 seconds. I was in a coffee shop and I jumped up and I drove home, and I ran home, and I got out my calculator, and I got all these pieces of paper.

At that time, I had been in my own business for about a year and a half. I had quit my job as a sales manager. Hang out my shingle as an independent marketing consultant, and I had a few clients, and I was selling some products, and I was little wobbly still, but getting going, and it was starting to go well. I realized, “Oh my word! This 80/20 thing, it applies to everything in my business, every just column on every spreadsheet, every web visitor. How many people fill out the form? How many people call on the phone? How many people buy a product? How many people turn into a good client?”

80/20 is predicting all of these stuff and I was just having this massive geek-out moment and I was realizing, “Hey, wait a minute. There are levers within levers within levers, and now that I can see them, I know exactly what to do,” where before, it was a mystery. 

It’s kind of like when I was a brand new guy and I get laid off my job and I found a sales job and I was kind of blissfully ignorant, I didn’t know where the levers were. Then, I don’t know what I don’t know. Then, I just keep getting kicked in the teeth and, pounded in the head, and clobbered by two-by-fours, and I never know when the next one is coming. 

Now, I’m actually — It’s like, “There’s really reliable ways to know that two-by-four is coming.” Also, there’s really reliable ways to know where there’s more business in a place where you just found a little bit versus other places where you’ve already found all that you can get. That was a huge, huge, huge thing for me. In fact, it might be the most significant moment I’ve ever had reading a book in my whole business career, and it totally tilted my world. 

Interestingly, during the following year, I started teaching Google AdWords. I started speaking at seminars. Since that time  I’ve written the world’s bestselling book on internet advertising, which is The Ultimate Guide to Google AdWords, and 80/20 was how I figured out Google AdWords. 

Back then, and I’m talking about 2003 right now, Google AdWords was this crazy, weird thing that most people didn’t understand. It was a wild west kind of a deal. It’s like, “Now, we’re bidding on positions in a search engine, and how does that work, and where the whole English language is up for sale, and how do you organize a campaign, and how do you write these ads, and how do you run these tests.” All of a sudden, I realized, “80% of this doesn’t’ matter. 20% of it matters a lot, and 20% of the 20% matters even more, and 20% of the 20% of the 20% matters even more,” and there’re these tiny little hinges that swing big doors. “I can figure this out,” and I did. In fact, a lot of the things that I figured out then have now become standard best practices in $100 billion industry, which we call pay per click marketing. 80/20 is really important, and I just want to say to everybody listening, if you’ll stick with us here and really get into some application, I think you’re going to find this really fascinating. 

[0:13:57.2] MB: I find it amazing that the 80/20 principle can describe everything from the GDP of countries, to the distribution of wealth of individuals, to craters on the moon, so it’s amazing. 

[0:14:09.3] PM: Yes, it does. Literally, it’s true. 80/20 describes rabbit populations, it describe the size of files on your hard drive. Let’s take your hard drive. 20% of the files take 80% of the space, and 20% or 20% of the files take 80% of 80% of the space. That means 4% take up 64%. You can have 80/20 squared 80/20 cube, 80/20 of the power of four. 

80/20 cube says that 1% of the files on your hard drive take up 50%. It’s also true of customers. 1% of your customers give you 50% of your money. 1% of the drivers gets 50% of the speeding tickets. 1% of the real estate owners own 50% of the real estate. 1% of the people own 50% of the wealth. This is a truism. It’s true regardless what country you go, of what state you’re in, or what kind of system of government that you have, and see, “This is extremely powerful, because if the same ratios hold for real estate in Belgium as for the size of craters on the moon, as for the size of pebbles on the beach, then it tells you that there’s something very, very fundamental that’s going on in the world and you either align with yourself with it, or fight it, and nature doesn’t care.” 

If you want to fight it and get your teeth kicked in, you can go right ahead and you can do that, and the universe does not care. On the other hand, if you align yourself with it and harness it, you can develop great wealth, you can achieve great things, you can have a very large disproportionate amount of influence. It’s really just a question of; who decides to live in the is world, versus who prefers to remain in the should be world? I just got to a point where I’m done living in the should be world. I’m going to sell and market the way the world really does work, and I’m going to harmonize with this.

[0:16:29.5] MB: Such a great statement, the distinction between the is world and the should be world. We talked about that a lot on the show and it’s something that definitely bears repeating. 

[0:16:40.0] PM: Trust me. I could live in the should be world for a really long time. I’m an idealistic person, and I get all these ideas. I don’t think any of us can afford to stay there. It’s fun for a while, but — Reality is actually a lot — If you just deal with the reality the way that it is, life is just so much easy.

[0:17:00.4] MB: Yeah, aligning yourself with reality whether or not you think that’s the way reality should be is how you achieve almost anything with these. It’s almost effortless once you feel aligned. You know that? That makes me think of the fact that once you understand this principle, it completely transforms what you think about and what you focus on, and you kind of hinted on that, talking about the tiny hinges and focusing on the wrong things. 

I think you’ve talked about in the past how — Or said something around the lines of, “Every problem in business, or most problems in your business, is because you’re on the wrong side of the 80/20 equation.” 

[0:17:40.3] PM: Yeah, that’s right. I’ll tell you a quick story. My friend, John Paul Mendocha, dropped out of high school when he was 17 and he hitched-hiked to Las Vegas and he decided to become a professional gambler, which his mother was, I’m sure thrilled with. That’s literally what he did. 

After a few weeks in Vegas of poker and black jack, he’s like, “Dang! This is harder than I thought it was going to be.” He was hanging out a gambling book store one day and he starts talking to this guy. He finds out this guy runs a gambling ring and he’s been doing it a long time. He’s like, “Hey, could we work something out?” and they agreed. It’s like, “Yeah, for a percentage of your winnings, I’ll teach you what we do.” They agree, “Jump in the jeep, John, we’re going for a ride.” “All right. Here we go.” 

John gets in the jeep and they’re driving down the highway and John goes, “Okay. How do I win more poker games?” The guy says, “You have to play with people who are going to lose, not people who are going to win. People who are going to lose are called the marks. You want the guy that just showed up from Wichita, Kansas with his grandmother’s inheritance money that thinks he’s going to get rich in Vegas. That’s the guy you want.” 

John goes, “Okay. Where do I find all these marks?” His friend says, “Here, I’ll show you.” He pulls in to a strip club parking lot and they walk into a strip club and there’s women, and music, and pounding rock and roll, and people drinking, and all these stuff going on in there, and it’s really loud, and Rob and John sit down at the table, and Rob always carried a sawed-off shotgun with him, which gives you a little hint of what kind of guy Rob was. 

He pulls his sawed-off shotgun out of his jacket and he holds it under the table and he says, “Watch this,” and he opens the chamber and then shuts it and he racks it, and makes this noise, and they look around and several people in the club, these biker-kind of-guys, are like, “Hey, what was that?” The club owner comes over and he says, “Hey, is everything okay over here?” “Everything is fine. Just teaching the lad a lesson. Don’t you worry about us. We’re not going to cause any trouble here.” 

He looks over to John and he goes, “John, did you see those guys that turned around when they heard that noise?” John goes, “Yeah.” He goes, “Don’t play poker with them. They’re not marks. Play poker with everybody else.” That is what — In 80/20 in marketing, that’s what I call racking the shotgun. Racking the shotgun is anytime you do something to a crowd, or somebody else does something to a crowd. 

By watching, you can figure out who’s the minority that’s paying attention and who’s the majority who’s not. It could be racking the shotgun is who searches for a certain keyword on Google and who doesn’t. Who clicks on an add and who doesn’t? Who fills out the form and who doesn’t? Who opens the email, who doesn’t? Who clicks on the link, who doesn’t? Who buys the stuff, who doesn’t? Who buys the upsell, who buys the super duper upsell? It’s all racking the shotgun. 

Everything we do in marketing is racking the shotgun, and all the time, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, the world, the is world is telling you what people do, how they behave, and you have to expect totally disproportionate results. 80/20 says that if you hire 10 sales people, two of them are going to sell 80% of the stuff, and the other eight are going to sell 20% of the stuff, which means the two are 16 times better at selling than the eight. 

That is going to happen. If you go out and hire 10 sales people, it almost doesn’t matter whether you try really hard to find good ones or not. If you’re good at finding good ones, then you’ll get better ones. If you’re not, you’ll get worst ones. Either way, that ratio is going to be true. You’re going to have a disproportionate number of winners and losers, and what most people try to do is they try to fix the eight bad sales people. No. No. No. No. No. You get rid of most of them at last, and you put all your energy into supporting the good ones and finding more good ones, because, frankly, you’re going to sell more with three good sales people than with 30 bad ones. 

[0:22:53.5] MB: That’s a great lesson, and it’s so important. You made two really, really key points there. One is that the 80/20 curve and kind of the whole model is sort of an inescapable patter. It doesn’t matter if you think it should be that way or want it to be that way, or even try to kind of wiggle out of I in some way. It’s going to continue to repeat itself in whatever sample of data you’re looking at. 

The second piece is that you shouldn’t focus on fixing the bad or the kind of mediocre performing 80%. You should really focus on all of your attention on the 20% that is producing and how can you do more of that. How can you support that? How can you add on to that? I think it’s a critical lesson. 

[0:23:37.1] PM: Exactly. Let’s just take a step back and let’s acknowledge that one of the jobs of civilization is to mitigate 80/20. There’s always going to be kids that are slow in school, and there’s always going to be people who can’t pay their bills, and there’s always going to be an old person who needs medical care. That’s always going to be true. Yes, we need to take care of the disadvantage and — Okay. That’s understood. 

However, beyond that, you really have to fight almost everything you’ve been taught your whole entire life in school and everything else if you want to be excellent and achieve things, because the world will always — Even your training and your conditioning will always condition you to go fix the under-performer. When, actually, what you should be doing is you should be super-charging the few things that work. Like in school, the very best students are supposed to get straight As and it’s like, “Well, did you get an A in everything?” You know what? You can get As in six different subjects, but you know what? You’re going to make a living in one subject.

You could be a savant and probably be more successful than if you’re well-rounded. If you’re terrible in English and you’re terrible at social studies, but you’re really good at math, there’s some place that will hire you to do really amazing math. They don’t really care how good your English or your social studies. 

Another thing is that, a lot of the times, you never get to what’s really successful until you’re willing to fail, because failure is a rack the shotgun. If you’re an A student, is conditioned to never fail. Therefore, an A student will almost always be mediocre unless they unlearn the A student instincts and relearn — Because here’s the thing. One of the things that 80/20 says is that if you’re willing to fail 20 times, one will be a slam the ball out of the park home run even if the other 19 are total dogs. It always guarantees it. In fact, it puts a whole different perspective on failure if you expect to fail 80% of the time. It gives you more courage to put yourself out there. It’s like, “Okay. We’re one closer.” 

You can use 80/20, fortunately, to eliminate a lot of things like, “I’m not diving in that swimming pool. There’s no water in that.” There’s a lot of failure that goes on that’s unnecessary, and I’m not suggesting you should do that at all. I just think the world has this very warped idea. If people knew how many things we try, how many experiments. We’re always trying stuff. You know what? Most of the time the results are disappointing. You know? You don’t need that many victories to have a successful life. You don’t. 

[0:27:04.5] MB: That’s another great conclusion of the 80/20 principle. You don’t have to be successful. I think, actually, Charlie Munger who — I don’t know if you’re familiar with, but we’re a huge fan of him here on the show. 

[0:27:15.6] PM: It’s on your website. Yeah. 

[0:27:17.1] MB: Yeah. He says the same thing, which is you only have to get rich once. Which is the same idea, essentially, is that you can fail a bunch of times, but if you succeed one of those times, that’s the only time that matters. 

[0:27:28.8] PM: That’s right. Then you just need to not lose it. There’s an 80/20 strategy for that, and that’s probably not where we’re going to go today, but absolutely. If you know that there’s levers within levels within levers, so 80/20 of the power of four says that .2% of what you do gets you 40% of your results. 

If you’re in any performance-oriented profession, so you could be a computer programmer, or you could be in sales, or you could be in some kind of negotiation. If you stop and think of last year, what’s .2% of your 250 days that you’re working? Let’s say one day, I’m going to submit to you that 40% of what you accomplish last year happened in one day, and you probably never really realized it. If you really zoom back and you go, “All right. What did we really accomplish?” Most of us have 100 days a year where we really accomplished nothing at all. What this really means is most people are doing way too many trivial things. Most things people do they know aren’t going to create anything big, so why are they doing them? 

[0:28:54.2] MB: Yeah. That reminds me, I would have to paraphrase a quote, but there’s a great Tim Ferriss’ quote that’s very similar that’s essentially the vast majority of what everyone does it totally worthless. It’s those few random things — It’s very hard to find what they are, but it’s those few random things that happen to create almost all of the positive outcomes in your life. 

[0:29:17.5] PM: Yeah. If you start to recognize the pattern and to realize how disproportionate they are — I said this before, but I should really emphasize it again. The 20% that generates results is item for item 16 times more leverage than the 80% that doesn’t. When you start recognizing those levels, they’re laying all over the place. They’re right in front of you all the time. 

It’s just like the biker bar story. 20% of the people in that bar were bad ass guys that you don’t want to play poker with them, but I guess if you wanted to go rob a bank, or sell cocaine, or ride Harley’s, or whatever, then you get 16 times more attraction with those guys than you would with anybody else, of course. Then, if you’re trying to win poker games, there’s 20% of that room that’s going to be far easier to win a poker game than everybody else. You just have to figure out who it is. 

That’s what a professional really does. This actually leads to something very important about sales, which is sales is not a convincing people process. Sales is an elimination process. Before you try to convince anybody to do anything, you should figure out, “Should I not even be talking to this person at all?” When you do that, that takes so much pressure off of the situation and it makes you not seem like at times you’re a salesman. 

I know a lot of people that are listening here, they’re not even in sales. The fact is, is everybody has to convince somebody to do something for a good portion of our life. We got to get coworkers, there’re departments, you got to get buy-in on some project. We all have to get cooperation, and if you understand that — If you start within a question, “Well, do they have the money or the resources to do this in the first place? Do they have the ability to say yes, or they actually only have the ability so say no?” 

I think, a lot of times, when we ask for stuff, we’re asking people who can say no, but we can’t say yes. If you’re trying to get a job, don’t go to HR. HR cannot say yes. They can only say no. You go to a department head. If he likes you, he’ll get you through HR. Do they agree with your fundamental selling proposition in the first place, or not? A lot of times, you actually know, or you can ask them before you try to get into this. 

You can just save so much time, and if the other person knows that you’re not going to try to ram anything down your truth, if they know that you’re going to figure out if it’s a fit before you attempt to sell them, then they actually come towards you, because you’re disqualifying. It’s kind of reverse psychology. Really, you’re just basing it in the truth. The truth is 80% of the people, I might consider for this, not my customer. 

[0:32:37.0] MB: Tell me the story of the $2,700 espresso machine. I love that example.

[0:32:44.5] PM: One of the things — When I have the epiphany about 80/20, and I realized there was an 80/20 inside every 80/20, I immediately realized, “This tells me that 20% of my customers would spend four times the money, and 20% of them would spend four times the money, and 20% of them will spend four times the money,” which is really just another way of stating 80/20. 

I went home to look it was true, and already with a 18-month-old business, I could already see that was true.  Let me give you a hard example of this. If let’s say that a Starbucks store sells a 1,000 $4 lattes every week, and they’re at Starbucks, and they’re going to buy their stuff and you say, “All right, 4,000 people a week are buying these lattes.” That pretty much guarantees you almost like a law of physics that every week one of those 4,000 people is going to buy a $2,000 stainless steel espresso machine. In other words, all those people, they have a coffee-itch, and they are there to scratch it, and 20% of them have 16 times more itch than the other 80%. Then, 20% of those have four times more itch than that 20% that we just talked about, and on and on it goes. 

You can start doing the math, and you can go, “All right. For every thousand cups of $4 espresso, I’m going to sell one $2,000 espresso machine. By the way, I’m also going to get — I’m going to get 10 people that come in here and spend $300 or $400.” What are they spending $300 or $400? Maybe they come in once and they buy a whole bunch of stuff. Maybe they come every day and they buy CDs, and they buy coffee mugs, and they buy bags of coffee, and maybe they buy the $200 espresso machine, but they are going to do that. 

I guarantee, if you give them the opportunity to spend that money, they will spend it, and the amount of money they spend will fit something you referred to earlier, which is called the 80/20 curve. If you put 80/20 on a graph and you get the least interested people on the left and the most interested on the right, that graph — It looks like a ramp that goes up, up, up, up, up, and it just goes infinitely towards the top right side and it never stops, and it goes until you run out of people.

80/20 will reliably predict how many espresso machine Starbucks is going to sell. 80/20 says there’s 7 billion people in the world, and this is how much money they’re all going to make at these different levels. It’s also going to say, “Here’s the top 10 people in the Forbes 400.” Guess what? Even when we’re in the Warren Buffett-Bill Gates stratosphere, 80/20 is still true at the very tippy-top of the world. It’s true everywhere. It’s fractal. It’s macro. It’s micro. It is everywhere.  

[0:36:09.9] MB: I think even once you have sort of a cursory understanding of the 80/20 principle, the espresso machine example, for me, was so interesting, because you think of it sort of vertically kind of going out in sideways in terms of smaller and smaller piece of the population. But that really turns and it also goes vertical, and I think it’s so interesting, and I know it’s hard to kind of visualize it on just listening to this. But you have a website, where it’s 8020curve.com that you can kind of plugin some numbers and see all the different examples. 

[0:36:43.1] PM: Yes. We have examples there. It also means that if 50 people a year each buy a $2,000 espresso machine, it means one of them wants to spend $100,000. At that point, most people, they’re like, “What?” You know what? Maybe they spend a million. It might be the guy that buys a Starbucks store, or a franchise, or something like that. The math works all the way up to things like that, because they’re still scratching the coffee-itch. 

What this means, practically speaking, is it means that if you have a bunch of customers that all did one thing, there’s a bunch more money in your list, and it’s the existing customers. You don’t need to go get a bunch of new customers to sell the espresso machines. If you didn’t have an espresso machine before, and now you do, you can go back to that crowd and sell espresso machines. It means you can have the junior espresso machine. You could have super-super-deluxe espresso machine. It means that an awful lot of small companies and freelancers can make a huge increase in their income just by inventing an espresso machine version of what you sell. You go, “Okay. What would make this really deluxe, really special, much easier to use, or much bigger of an experience?” You don’t just slap a big price on something. It needs to be worth the money. If it’s worth the money, they will buy it.

[0:38:23.9] MB: So many people fail to think about the opportunity to create these upsells kind of within their existing audience, and I think that’s what’s so fascinating. In the book, you also mentioned things like you have a coach ticket for $300 and you have a first-class seat, or a luxury seat on some of these international flights that can go for, literally, $10,000 or more.

[0:38:47.1] PM: Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. That’s a perfect example. In some of the really nice airlines, like Singapore Airlines, or Emirates, yeah, they’ll have these little pads in $15,000 and they have the most expensive vodka, and the most expensive sushi, and the most expensive caviar. If you do the math, they can totally go all out on the food and it’s still only a few hundred dollars. 

The fact is, for every hundred people that want to fly coach, there’s that one guy, and he’s got the alligator shoes and all of that, or he wants to sleep because he’s a got a meeting when he arrives, and it’s a super important meeting. Frankly, if he’s 10% better at his meeting, it’s worth the $15,000, because he’s working on a $10 million, or a billion dollar deal. It’s totally worth it from the customer’s perspective.

[0:39:46.5] MB: You touched on earlier the idea that everybody, to some degree, has to sell, or is in sales, even if they don’t realize it. I’d also be really interested for you to share the marketing DNA concept that you have and the idea that everyone has a unique sales style. 

[0:40:04.7] PM: My first sales job was at this rep firm, and the people there, they were great people, they were great human beings. I loved them. There was Wally, and there was Fred, and there was Mike, and there was Steve. They were all great folks. One guy in particular, Fred, he was really successful and he had a lot of accounts, and he sold these really big deals. I would watch him in action. He would say things that I can’t figure how he got away with them. Do you ever know a salesperson like that? They could just kind smack a customer on the side of their head and get to guy to smile and say thank you. 

Fred just mystified me. I was like, “How can I be as good as Fred?” On top of that, to make matters worse, Fred had a very hard time explaining what he did in words. He wasn’t actually a very articulate person and he could barely spell, but he could still sell like crazy. 

It was like I was trying to be Fred. Actually, there were a lot of people I was trying to be like. I listen to these motivational tapes and stuff, and later I started to figure out why he was selling like crazy and why I wasn’t. It was because I had a fundamentally different style of selling than he did. All of my instincts ran totally counter to how he did his job. 

I figured out enough of that, that when I got fired from that job and got a new job, that the new job was a much better fit. In fact, it went really well, and I worked there for four years, and I made good money, and they sold the company, and I got stock options. It was a really happy story. 

Then, fast-forward another 10 years later, and at that point, I’ve been a marketing consultant for years and I’ve worked in 300 industries, and I have dealt with every kind of marketing and salesperson you can imagine. I started to realize the people’s selling styles can be extremely, extremely different. How one of them sells, has nothing to do with how somebody sells. 

Let me give you some examples. In fact, I’ll tell you what I ultimately concluded. I came up with — There were eight different modalities in selling, and I’ll tell you what they are. One of them is the alchemist. The alchemist wants to sell by showing you something that got invented yesterday that is super new and super cool that you have never seen before. It’s all about the new. 

A producer is somebody who sells you based on it’s reliable, it obeys the rules, it’s proven, it follows the 146 steps. Now, you’ll notice that an alchemist is almost the complete opposite of a producer. 

Here’s another one; is live versus recorded. Some people thrive in the moment, in gun fire, hostage and negotiator, throw him into a situation, and this Fred was the hostage negotiator. I am not. I was more like the recorded, which is whether it’s video, whether it’s audio, whether it’s in print. I want to sit and I want to perfect that message before I put it out there. That’s why I write books. Fred couldn’t write a book to save his life. I could negotiate a hostage situation to save my life. Do you know what I’m saying? 

Then, the next one is images versus words. There are people that sell you by showing you stuff, “Look at this.” “Look at that.” “Look at this.” “Look at that.” Maybe they sell bright, yellow Corvettes, or something. Then, there’re people they sell with words. They sell with stories. They sell with descriptions. They write catalogs. They write copy. They write the big, long webpages that are ugly, but they sell a lot of stuff. 

Then, there’s empathy versus analytics. Some people pluck your heart strings and they tell you a really moving story, they make you laugh, the make you cry. Other people sell with proof, and data in spreadsheets, and graphs, and numbers. 

Those are eight components. What I did was I devised a profile test online where you can go take it and it will tell you, “This is how you naturally sell.” Do not try to take a job, or a function, or an entrepreneurial adventure that forces you to sell outside your style. Do it within your style, because that’s the 80/20 of your skill set. The 20% of your skills that will produce 80% of all of your results are probably concentrated in one, or two, or three of these areas, and then you have these others that are weaknesses. 

For example, we’ve got a guy, his name is Joshua Earl. He was a computer programmer. He took the marketing DNA test, and the marketing DNA test said, “You are a copywriter.” 18 months later, he had quit his job and he was a full time copywriter, and he loves what he does. He didn’t really enjoy computer programming. 

I think if you’re going to sell anything. I don’t care if you do sell for a living, or if you don’t sell for a living. If you have to persuade people to do stuff, you should figure out what is your persuasion groove? What is your natural way that you can convince people to do stuff, because it’s already there, it’s already been present in most of the interactions that you’ve been successful with. Now, you just need to build on it. 

[0:46:26.8] MB: for listeners who want to take kind of a concrete first step to implement the 80/20 principle in their lives, what’s a piece of homework that you would give them as a starting place? 

[0:46:37.9] PM:  I would respectfully suggest that you read my 80/20 book, it’s called 80/20 Sales in Marketing. In fact, it has a link to the marketing DNA test inside which is normally $37, so it’s a really nice discount. I would encourage you to read that. 

As far as specific actions — I want you to think about — Think about how somebody gets to you. Let’s say that you’ve got certain keywords, or ads, or whatever, that are on the internet, and people. Think how 80/20 applies to every single step. 80% of the people search — Or 100% people search, 80% don’t click on your link, and 20% do. 

Then, the ones that come to your website, 80% leave without doing anything that you want them to do, and 20% do what you want them to do. Then, the 20% that filled in the form, the 20% of them actually get on the webinar or talk to you on the phone, and 20% of them buys something. 20% of them actually buy something else. 

What I want you to do is I would like you to sit down with a piece of paper, go to Starbucks, or wherever your favorite thinking place is, and just sketch it out and realize that, okay, you’re dealing with 20% of the 20% of the 20% or the 20%, which is some tiny fraction. What I want you to do, starting from now, is instead of beating yourself up for the apparent massive waste, because, hey, it’s true. 99.5% of these people never do what you want them to do. Instead of lamenting over those, I want you to focus on the fraction that do it, do what you want to do, and I want you to ask yourself, “What’s the next 20% —  What’s the giant step that 20% of these people would take that’s four times bigger than the step they took before that I haven’t asked them to take? How do I even get bigger doors on these tiny little hinges.”

Sure, you can improve your ratios everywhere else, but you’re not usually going to improve them by a huge, huge amount. Most of steps, you’re not going to improve 10-X. You might improve 50%, or you might double them, or something like that. Either way, most of the money, most of the success, most of the whatever you are after is in this small number, and there’s a bunch of stuff you’re doing now that you don’t actually have to do. 

[0:49:33.1] MB: Great advice, and we’ll be sure to include links to all of these in the book, the 80/20 curve, everything in the show notes so listeners can get access to all of that. 

Perry, where can people find you and find your books line?

[0:49:47.0] PM: You can go to perrymarshall.com. In fact, we sell the 80/20 book for $7 including shipping in the United States. It’s an incredible loss leader but we do that for a very particular reason. You can also find my other books, and we’ve got a lot of things and you can get on our email list, and you can study what we do and how we do it. 

In fact, what I would suggest you do, if you want to see 80/20 sales in marketing being done as opposed to just describe, just go buy the book for $7 and see what happens. We use 80/20 all over the place. It’s layered in into what we do. The up-sell is from the book, and the emails that you get, and whether you get a lot of emails or only a few based on what you respond to, or whether you respond to things, whether you opened the emails or not. All of that is self-adjusting. 

Again, you can go to perrymarshall.com and you can see all of that happen. It’s one thing to read about it, but it’s another thing to have it done to you and see how that works. I actually have a lot of people that get on our email list just to see what we do.

[0:51:04.2] MB: Perry, this has been a fascinating conversation. I really, really enjoyed digging into the 80/20 principle and some amazing stories and examples and some really concrete ways to apply it and think about sales and marketing. Thank you so much for being on the show.

[0:51:19.4] PM: Thank you for having me and thank you for going on all these weird little nooks and crannies of the universe as I try to stitch and saw together and help people be more effective and persuading. 

[0:51:31.0] MB: Thank you so much for listening to The Science of Success. Listeners like you are why we do this podcast. The emails and stories we receive from listeners around the globe bring us joy and fuel our mission to unleash human potential. I love hearing from listeners. If you want to reach out, share your story, or just say hi, shoot me an email, my email is matt@scienceofsuccess.co. I’d love to hear from you and I read and respond to every listener email. 

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Thanks again, and we’ll see on the next episode of The Science of Success.


April 13, 2017 /Lace Gilger
High Performance, Decision Making, Money & Finance
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